Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 56: A Very Special Simulpodcast with FanGraphs Audio

Episode Date: October 4, 2012

Ben and Sam join/are joined by Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs for a longest-ever episode about the worst predictions teams and players made about themselves, Bryce Harper’s historical significance, and the baseball players who led the league in our hearts in 2012. We talked for almost an hour, so adjust your commutes accordingly.

Good morning and good evening and welcome to episode 56 of Effectively Wild, the daily podcast from Baseball Perspectives. I'm Sam Miller in Long Beach, California with my co-host in New York, New York, Ben Lindberg. And we're joined today by a very special guest who has been talking nonstop for the last 20 minutes, Mr. Carson Sestouli. How are you guys doing? Very well. Thank you. Hi, Carson. Hey, it's great to see – well, I don't see either of you.

But it's great to hear you. I had just a mini catastrophe. What was that? Well, I was under the impression that I was reaching for a milk stout, a left-hand milk stout, which is the type of beer that I like. Except what my wife had secretly done is to put the one remaining pumpkin beer into it, into the left-hand milk stout six-pack container. And so I ended up taking that. So. I have found that the ladies like their pumpkin flavored beverages.

Sure. Well, sure. But, I mean, I'm partial to it as well. What's your problem? Sure. Well, sure. But I mean, I'm I'm partial to it as well. What is he doing? Does he do this all the time? No, I never say anything that funny. That is literally never made me laugh on this show. I do laugh at my own jokes quite a bit.

OK, yeah. Yeah, I don't know why you're doing that. But the point is, I had a startling moment where I thought I was about to be drinking left-hand milk stout. Instead, I was drinking Lakefront Brewery's pumpkin ale. So you can imagine my surprise it's amazing how much the expectations of the flavor can affect one's enjoyment of a beverage is it actually possible that's disabled one yeah uh have you ever thought that you were drinking coke and you drank milk i've had it with water and milk which which I've found to be very, very unpleasant.

Oh, yeah. What you thought you were about to be drinking? I guess it works either way, probably. Yeah. And we should also announce, we should announce post-haste that we are recording this during an exciting portion of today's Texas, or I should say Wednesday's Texas-Oakland game. It appears as though it's just tied the game in the bottom of the fourth, and the imposing U.N.A. Suspetic is about to be facing Derek Holland. That's where I am. Are you guys ahead? Well, that's weird because I looked earlier and the A's were losing,

and I assumed that that would be the end of things because they were unlikely to win, and therefore, as far as I could tell, it was over. One could say the same about their season as a whole. One could. I think one was subtly implying it just a moment ago, in fact. One could continue the entirety of this podcast in the third person well i'm impressed with our our bandwidth we are all watching live broadcast feeds and talking on skype and recording it at the same time we must have excellent connections tell you it's not the

first time i've been complimented on the size of my bandwidth which sounds like i'm talking about something else. I held out for a little while, but then I did laugh. I am talking about that. I'm talking about my penis. You guys, I can say that. Anyway, hey, listen. It's really great to talk to you.

It really is. Yeah, this is fun so far. I was going to ask whether we should be thanking you for coming on or thanking you for having us on or whether it's time that we move past such petty concerns as who is hosting. Well, I thought that we would refer to it as a simulcast. For the purposes of FanGraphs Audio, I am the host of this. And for the purposes of...

Was it excessively wild? Very wild? Effectively. Effectively? Mm-hmm. Do you guys do a different sound effect at the beginning every time, right? We do. We do. And what has it been?

I've heard, because I've listened to two episodes, I heard what I think was someone peeing. Is, right? We do. And what has it been? I've heard, because I've listened to two episodes, I heard what I think was someone peeing. Is that right? As we discussed, I think it was coffee being poured, which we then agreed was a pee precursor. Oh my.

If I could also submit, there's quite an alert to be noted here. You want to suspect it's just flied out to Josh Hamilton If I could also submit, there's quite an alert to be noted here. Yes, something just happened. UNS Suspense has just flied out to Josh Hamilton, but not done that, I guess. So I guess I'm about a pitch and a half behind you then. Yeah, well, what's about to happen in your life? There it is. There it is. Derek Holland, hopefully, is pointing up to the sky.

Yeah. Oh, goodness gracious. Oh, my word and that's it that's real time that's human emotion on tape that's josh hamilton with those blue eyes during day games again yeah josh hamilton just whiffed on that that's a big i don't know what the wpa is on that um but it's significant. Yeah, this game has had a number of swings, already interesting swings. AJ Griffin was left in too long, probably.

There was really no excuse for that. But then that choice has been mooted, I guess. The poorness of the choice has been mooted. Muted? Mooted? Rendered moot. Yeah, I wouldn't say that yet. Right.

Well, yeah, up until now. Anyway, so what do you guys do at this point it's just uh what was the other sound oh like it was a gorilla like a some sort of roar or we feel like we use a lot of wildlife uh we also use ourselves appliances ourselves screwing up the intro uh is something that we leave in as the intro often. But yeah, it tends to be whatever sound we just heard or wanted to have heard. Do you feel like that humanizes you for your listeners? I think the idea at the beginning was that we didn't really know how we wanted to present these to people. We didn't know if we wanted to tell them the topics

or if we wanted to name these things or if we wanted to describe them. We didn't really know what the podcast was going to be at all. So to sort of simplify things, we just put a sound effect in the beginning so that you could just identify it by the original sound effect. And you'd be surprised that Google does not actually return many searches for Sound of Coffee podcast. You're right. We weren't getting a huge response.

Yeah. We wanted to use an audio sample from that Written in the Stars song that was the intro to the postseason last year, but we were advised by our lawyers not to do that. We were advised by Kevin. Yes, who was being advised by our lawyers not to do that. We were advised by Kevin. Yes, who was being advised by lawyers. Right. Well, there you are.

So we've gone low budget and open source and non-copyright. Yeah. Well, wise choices all around, fellows. So at this point, we talk about crickets often because there are crickets in Sam's garage where he records the podcast. That's true. But we can probably move on from that. And at that point, we then each propose a topic and we discuss each of those topics in turn. Okay.

Sounds reasonable. Did you bring a topic, Carson? I did. I think it's probably slightly irreverent, but I think it's something about which I'm curious, if that's alright. Today I'm curious as to who, for each of you, and I'm more than willing to share mine too,

who are the league leaders for the 2012 season, the league leaders of your heart, or in your heart. That's a good topic. I don't think we've spoken about that topic yet. Ben, do you have a topic? I do. I wanted to talk about some poor predictions that were made by teams or players about themselves prior to this season.

And I would like to talk about Bryce Harper and the season he has had. So why don't we start with you, Ben? Okay. So this is the season when we baseball writing people look back at the predictions we made before the season, which is usually an exercise that leads to a lot of self-loathing. And so I decided to sort of lash out and take some other people down with us, us being the people who made bad predictions before the season. So I have looked for predictions that were made by teams or players, executives, someone connected to a team about that team or player's performance this season. And so I want to, I guess, rank them along a scale,

possibly, of good to bad. We have, I guess, probably the worst baseball prospectus staff prediction, Sam and I have agreed, was every staff member who voted picking the Orioles to finish last in the AL East. And the best possible prediction would be a correct prediction of some sort of award or season finalist or, you know, some standings thing. Something you pick correctly. So if a 1 is a perfect prediction and a 10 is picking the Orioles to finish last unanimously, I would like to know how each of these scores for you guys. So starting off, I have about 10 of these. So the first one and just going...

Wait, I need to clarify the scale. Okay, yes. I understand that the Orioles are at the bottom and a correct prediction is at the top. Yes. Are we then to only assign a score that is a similar level of prediction or are we doing a 1 to 10 scale? I think we can go pure 1 to 10.

These are all going to be predictions that did not come true because predictions that did come true are not what I want to celebrate here. So they will all be bad. You're tearing people down, as you noted. Yes, right, essentially. So the first one, just kind of going in alphabetical order here, is Mike Socha telling Bobby Abreu that he would get somewhere in the range of 400 plate appearances for the Angels this season.

It was something of a controversy this spring. Abreu wanted to start. It didn't look like he was going to be able to start, so Socha kind of told him he would get plenty of playing time. He ended up being released by the Angels in April, I believe, and making a total of 257 plate appearances between both of his teams this year. So that's an interesting prediction because like 80% of the variable in that prediction is Mike Socha himself.

And so it is unlikely, it is sort of surprising and I guess it was unlikely that Mike Socha himself. So it is sort of surprising, and I guess it was unlikely, that Mike Socha would mispredict his own heart. Although I suppose we all do at least a few times before we finally settle down with a special lady. I would say that is like a four. Because Abreu was very poor last year, but he did still show some on base skills. And there was certainly an idea that he could contribute to a lineup still. Right. And wait. So wait, what is the the most failing type of is called a 10?

Yes. All right. Yeah. In fact, I'm going to give I will also skew low two or three because I'm going to guess that Mike Socha didn't actually believe what he was saying. I'm going to guess that he said that so that he could make this player on his team feel better. But he was lying. He was doing it like a liar. It was how he was doing it. And then but then of course bobby bray who did as you know get uh at least some percentage of those 400 and and uh still posted and sam you and i corresponded about this briefly yesterday via twitter uh still posted it in obp above 350 i honestly don't remember this at all I remember seeing that You were drunk Oh this was my

The Bob Abreu I talked about Bob Abreu You mentioned Bob Abreu Yeah because his card back in 1997 His baseball cards all labeled him Bob Oh yeah Isn't it hard to imagine Bobby Abreu as Bob Doesn't it change everything

It changes some things Isn't it hard to imagine Bobby Abreu as Bob? Doesn't it change everything? It changes some things. Yeah, so that is a variable, obviously, with these team predictions is that it is quite difficult to find a team executive predicting failure for his team or a player on his team, which is disappointing. I would enjoy that. You've got 10 of these? Yes. Yeah, maybe we could get a best of list.

Okay. Okay, so let's see. We have Freddy Gonzalez predicting that Dan Ugla will be a guy who hits 280, 290 with 30 homers and 90 RBI. Uh, Dan Uggla hit 219 with 19 homers and was benched for a while by Freddy Gonzalez. Oh, interesting. Uh, the numbers that he threw you last year for reference. Yeah. The other numbers though, that he gave were pretty similar to Dan Uggla numbers. So, and, and he hit 287 the season before that. So basically he was just talking about Dan Ugla regaining his BABIC, essentially, and otherwise remaining the same,

and then Dan Ugla instead cratered, right? Yes, pretty much. So let's call that one, because Dan Ugla was pretty poor, but he also walked 93 times, his first black ink. Let's call that one a 4.2. Okay. What is black ink? I only know that in the context of the hall of fame uh it means he led the league in a category so black ink on his baseball reference page oh that's oh that's interesting yeah that's um great baseball

lingo there sam miller uh we can just do these rapid fire uh Wait, Carson didn't give a – I also think it's not – I don't think it's particularly egregious. I think that – I don't think it would be unreasonable to – maybe not to expect – it's hard to expect 30 home runs from most people, but I don't think it's totally outside the realm. I'd say three again. He had done it five years in a row. For example.

Yeah. Okay. Okay. the realm i'd say three again he had he had done it five years in a row for example yeah okay okay so it was harder than i expected to find red sox people making grand predictions for the red sox unfortunately ben sharrington was fairly humble in the preseason and avoided making any optimistic claims, but John Henry was not so much, and he said, it's turning into a productive offseason. We're going to have a great team this year. That's, well, that was way off. Yes. Thank you for clarifying that. I'm going to say great season has enough vagueness.

But on the other hand, considering their payroll and pedigree, great for the Red Sox would probably be making the postseason. The season is not over. To be fair, the season is not over. But they look unlikely to make October. So let's – I'm going to call that an eight and a half. Yeah. Now listen, I have previously been doing this. The first two I've gauged on process.

This one I will gauge on result. I've decided to switch tact midstream. And that is what has made me a success as a sports writer. Okay. And I will say 10. 10? Wow. I will say 10.

And as Dane Perry submitted on the FanGraphs audio podcast the other day, and I will say 10 I will say 10 and as Dane Perry submitted on the FanGraphs audio podcast the other day with regard to Heath Bell I think that John Henry and everyone in the Red Sox organization should be boiled in hot oil

alright that's a bold opinion a five alarm sports opinion is actually oil. Alright, that's a bold opinion. A five-alarm sports opinion is actually what he referred to it as. We have Alex White, and I hate to pick on Alex White, but he said, I think we're going to thrive as a pitching staff.

By the end of the year, we're going to have some things figured out and be a pretty good pitching staff well they figured some things out um they figured out they weren't very good they figured out they needed new pitchers they figured out they should be doing things differently um i'm gonna call it a five and a half um if i could submit i actually think that it was not just the pieces that they acquired, but there were actually some pieces, including Alex White himself, there were some pieces that I personally found to be reasons for optimism on the Rockies pitching staff. I think that besides him, Hulis Chassin had not, for example,

been terrible in the past. Also, who was the guy who got hit in the head last year? Because he had actually been excellent at one point, too. And Drew Pomeranz was also notable. Juan Nicasio is who I'm thinking of. I was very excited about Juan Nicasio entering this season. I never thought that Jeremy Guthrie or Jamie Moyer would work out, though. So I'll say five.

Okay. Next we have Carlos Lee. And you can find many, many team predictions or player predictions saying that a team will surprise some people or do better than expected, and those are very nebulous terms, so I avoided those. But Carlos Lee claimed that the Astros would be a lot better than they were last year. They won 56 games last year. They have won 55 games as we record.

No kidding. They didn't get worse, huh? No. I would have bet anything that they were worse uh i haven't looked at the underlying numbers but in terms of they have jettisoned basically their entire starting lineup from the beginning of the 2011 season i believe that they have gotten rid of i mean what everybody except for two is there anyone who's still around? Well, in the lineup you mean? Sure. Not on the team.

Right. Brett Wallace maybe in the city. I don't actually – I couldn't tell you the Astros 2011 opening day lineup off the top of my head. What the hell? What do you get paid for? But I think that there's probably, I mean, I guess the definition, the thing that we need to define is what a lot better means in this context. I think that if they won 56 games last year, a colleague of yours, Carson, Jeff Sullivan, wrote a piece at the beginning of the year about the Astros being the worst team ever projected and looked at projection systems that had the Astros losing 100 games, which is almost unheard of.

There's so much regression and caution in most of these projection systems that even the worst team, you'll rarely see a projection of more than 92, 93 losses. So the Astros were projected to be basically the worst team of all time on average. And even at that, I think they were only projected to lose between 99 and 102 games. So the fact that they had lost 106 the year before, I think that it was not unreasonable to think that they could win five games more without doing anything and 10 if a few things broke right and maybe 15 if they had a miracle season. And that just didn't happen.

Instead, they were the same. So I'm going to call that a two and a half. Yeah, two and a half. Okay. For the same exact reasons. Matt Kemp, 50-50 season season and he's like 21 six something like that uh if even if he had had a full season uh if you extended his stats he would not have come close although of course he was playing herd for a lot of that time he is at 23 9 it's uh it's weird

because i don't know that any prediction, player prediction, comes true less often than the stolen base one, which is weird because that's the one they have the most agency over. I don't know why these guys are constantly saying they're going to steal 70 times or whatever. Because, I don't know. It's weird. It's crazy. I'm going to call that one a whopper. I'm going to call that one a whopper. But on the other hand, he was

on an MVP pace before everything got hurt. So now I'm downgrading. I'm going to say 7 and 2 7s. I'm going to say a little bit higher because I do think that it... 50-50 is

insane. 50-50 is crazy. That's true... 50-50 is insane. 50-50 is crazy. That's true. 50-50 is crazy. He's saying that he was going to be 50-50. That's crazy. Yeah. He's going to be...

I mean, that's never been done before. I think it would be hard not to be an MVP sort of player if you're hitting... Well, if you're hitting 50 home runs in the current run environment anyway. And then you're on base enough when you're not hitting home runs to steal

those 50 bases. Yeah, that's pretty... Yeah, that's an insane... Yeah, he's insane. Nine. Nine. Nine is fair. Nine is fair. Whatever Miller is going to do, and then I'll do like a 10th iron. Okay. I mean, what is...

Oh, is Ben playing, too? Nope. I was going to move on. Please continue. No, I just want to say that 50-50 has not only never been done, but it really hasn't even come close. The closest I'm looking right now, the closest it's ever come, for anybody who's done 35-35, the closest is 42-46. I guess you might say the closest ever is,

I think Eric Davis had a 37-50 season. So maybe you could say might say the closest ever is i think eric davis had a 37 and 50 season um so maybe you could say that's the closest because at least he got to one of them but yeah there's a huge gap between the previous best season in the night i mean it'd be like usain bolt saying he's gonna run a an eight nine what does he actually run like a nine five five i think wow you know about track times yeah you really pulled that out with celerity. Alright, next. Okay, I'm going to skip over a couple because this has taken way too long, and I

apologize for coming up with such an engrossing topic. No, it's the end of the season. We can go long. You're too charming, Ben. That is my main failing. Okay, so the last one on my list here. Sam wrote something, I guess in the early morning hours of Wednesday about how terribly everyone did at predicting the A's before the season and during the season. the matter is for us to compete we're going to have to have a new stadium and i don't think there was a move we could have made that would have put us in a position to compete with a club like the

angels or texas given what they have and where they're headed and some of those signings now some might think that a good editor would have told his writer this information while he was working on the piece uh well yes that would be a valid point that's like uh i mean that that he has all the incentive in the world to lie and say that he will compete and so the fact that uh he said that means that he really was probably uh 10 or 12 degrees uh more pessimistic than he indicated with that quote i'm gonna call that a easy 10 well Well, he did have some incentives, I think. He switched tack. Yeah, he has been – there have certainly been cases where he's made –

I mean, even in Moneyball, it's covered that he makes the case to Major League Baseball that they can't compete. He stated that before. So you think that he was actually – that he had – his incentive was to actually exaggerate the other way. Yeah, I think it's posturing for the new stadium. Like you say – you see the Rays do sometimes saying that they can't compete. Even when they win, they can't draw anyone there.

They need a new stadium. I give it a one. I think a team like the Angels – or no, like the A's is always one that's uh i mean if you're talking in averages they're like their best hope right is to have like sort of peak seasons right so they go in with like four or five year cycles where they kind of develop a team hope to acquire a couple free agents have one or two great years and then it's just it's dismantled and that's sort of the best case scenario i think probably what the raise done is on one extreme of that, and what the Royals have done is on the other, something like that.

But yeah, there's no reason to think, I guess with the exception of the suspeticiding, that what has happened was going to happen. I would like to, if I could, I would like to actually add one. Sure. The Angels, before the season, had Mark Trumbo as their third baseman, and I believe, if I'm reading this correctly, they set a floor for him at 40 games at third base and gradually moved the ceiling upward.

And so there was every indication that they thought that Mark Trumbo could be at least maybe like a halftime player at third base. And in fact, Mark Trumbo, who I don't want to pick on, he had a fine year and he did his very best at a position that almost nobody thought that he was physically capable of playing just by genetics. But his UZR per 150 at third base was negative 100.6. And there are, of course, problems with defensive metrics and small samples. I don't think there is a problem with this one. He literally made half of the plays that came to him, and he ended up playing 63 innings there. I think that's like eight or nine games,

if you include the times he was pulled for defensive replacements. So that did not turn out to be a realistic projection for him at third base does anybody want to put a number on it yeah that's a 10 that's a 10 yes that could be that's bad yeah wait he how many errors did he make do you have the numbers right there uh let me check i i is uh yeah yeah he um his standard fielding uh chances 14 put outs five assists five airs four oh my that's so good and and I actually I I'm I watched those games and there was uh there was a um there were there were actually at least two balls that he charged on that were base hits that would have probably been converted by a competent

third baseman. And I believe, I believe, oh, there was also a throw to him that he just dropped and so was not able to make the tag. So there were other plays he didn't make. But he turned it around. Really a example of a successful human being. So he's kind of the opposite of Miguel Cabrera, who few Sabre types thought would be able to stick at third, but has somehow played 160 games this year or will have played 161, almost all of them at third, which is not something most people expected. I read today in a Bob Nightingale column at USA Today that Cabrera has startled scouts with his adequacy. I saw that too. I don't know that that's an accurate thing. Ben, it's one thing to point out a man's negative 100.6 UZR, but it's another to call him the opposite of Miguel Cabrera. That is just too far. I think that's actually

some of maybe the best writing I've ever encountered. It's certainly something I'll file away to describe someone as startling someone with your adequacy. Oh man, that would be a great headstone. He startled everyone with his adequacy.

Alright. Oh, man, that would be a great headstone. He startled everyone with his advocacy. All right. Let's do Sam's topic so that I can come up with an answer for Carson's. All right, so mine is actually fairly quick. We'll just go around the horn. But Dave Cameron, Carson, do you know him? I've heard of him. Carson, do you know him? I've heard of him.

So he mentioned today that Bryce Harper has now officially passed Mel Ott for the greatest season by a 19-year-old in history by your model for war. Similarly, he has similar numbers by baseball references model for war and by baseball prospectus model for warp. And much has obviously been made of Mike Trout having the greatest season ever for a 20-year-old. And I just want to know if we're sleeping on Bryce Harper, if his season as a 19-year-old is actually every bit as impressive as Trout's. And I say that because age is such a massive signifier for baseball players and I wonder whether we're not translating enough the difficulty of succeeding in the majors at age 19. Obviously, it's difficult to do it at 20, almost nobody does. But to find 19-year-olds who are passable is almost impossible. And I know when Trout came up last year, I looked at the 19-year-olds that have played in the majors since Griffey.

And basically, I think you could maybe argue that two of them, Edgar Renteria and Andrew Jones, were even passable. And pretty much all the rest were fairly poor. 20-year-olds, of course, have a huge disadvantage. But there are more successful 20-year-olds in baseball's history so uh can you make the case would you make the case should anybody make the case that bryce harper has actually had the more impressive season well do you mind if i if i go ben nope please oh uh i was actually talking with mike newman who uh originally of scouting the sally does a lot of prospect stuff for fan graphs now. And we were talking about Wilmer Flores' season this year in the minor leagues.

And Wilmer Flores, of course, at one point was a sort of, was considered a top prospect in the med system. And then because he played, you know, like he didn't wow everyone as a 19 year old at a ball, he sort of fell out of favor as a prospect, has played his way

back into prospect status by playing well even at the AA level this year, I believe it was. And he said, well, he said, there's a lot to be said here for how we assess players, especially in terms of age relative to level. And I think there's still a lot of sort of frontier to this conversation, especially when we talk about prospect age players, which I think is like, if nothing else, I think that what you're suggesting, Sam, I actually applaud you just for raising the question, is what I'm trying to do.

I'm trying to celebrate you. To say like exactly what does, like season X as a 19 year old, what does that equal for a 20 year old? And what can we expect from that? I don't know. I don't know necessarily how to adjust it. And I certainly don't know what answer to give you. But I do know that the question is fascinating. Is that did I say enough without saying anything? Yeah, well, let, maybe I can give you a little bit even more context for what the difference is between 19 and 20. First off, I made a mistake. It was basically Renteria and Griffey were adequate, and almost every other one was bad. But over the course of history, there have been 15 seasons, according to baseball reference, of one war or greater at age 19. There have been

none greater than four. And as an example, Mickey Mantle was worth 1.3 war as a 19-year-old. Now, if you go to 20, it's like you're in a whole different universe. There are 11 seasons over five. There are 11 seasons over five. There are actually 19 seasons better than the previous greatest 19-year-old season. And Mickey Mantle went from 1.3 to 6.3. And there are 64 seasons of one war or greater. So I don't know how much of that, though, is simply the fact that not every player actually has an opportunity to play at 19 no matter how good you are it it takes not just skill but a particular set of circumstances to get you to the majors at 19 no matter how good you are even for instance trout played when he was 19 but he didn't

play but a few games there and And it's very uncommon for a player to start the season at 19 or to start in April at age 19. And so it could just be simply that a combination of Harper's hype, Harper's early draft, having left high school a year early, and Harper's team, the situation that the Nationals found themselves in, put him in a position where he's able to succeed better than anybody ever, but on the other hand is competing against a much, much, much, much, much, much, much smaller pool of players. So I guess relative to the best seasons ever at his age, Trout still surpassed it by more than Harper's, I guess? I think that you probably would have to use a multiplier effect, right?

I mean Trout did have – I think Trout outperformed A-Rod's previous record war for a 19-year-old by something like one and a half. And Harper, if we're just sticking with baseball reference, by 1.3. But if you're looking at percentage increase, then Harper would definitely have it. There have been, by the way, 199 previous 20-year-olds who have played in the major leagues since 1945, and there have uh 609 20 year olds so about triple 19 and 19 and 20 okay yeah wow well i guess uh it almost would have been disappointing if harper hadn't done something historic in his first season given the expectations and the level of mainstream awareness and the hype and all of that.

Well, it would have been disappointing, but that's sort of the point is 19-year-olds virtually always disappoint you because their hype almost always exceeds their actual ability. And Harper is perhaps the first of our lifetime, probably almost certainly the first of our lifetime, unless you want to count Renteria, who probably none of us really remember all that well at the time, whose performance actually at 19 was equal to his hype. Right, and it wasn't just for, like, you could imagine, and I don't know if this was the case with Renteria necessarily, but you could imagine like a defense first shortstop living up to it, or even a defense first center fielder, maybe something like that, whose skills relied greatly on athleticism. The two things that I named incidentally of the last

22 years, a defense first shortstop and a defense first center fielder, Griffey and Renteria. So yeah. Okay. Yeah. So yeah. So you could imagine that happening, right? And then the offenses, you take what you can get. But I think in terms of hitting especially, because while you find young players with great contact skills, it's hard to find players that are that age, 19 or 20, who have both the power and or play discipline to survive at the major league level, you know, especially if they're playing. I mean, although Harper, I was looking at his defensive numbers and we've made all the proper caveats, I think,

about sample size with regard to those. But he has at least profiled as an above average center fielder. I don't know if that's actually the case. I've seen him take a couple of strange routes, but his numbers were certainly better than I anticipated. Well, it's a good point. Actually, the reason that Harper stands out over the previous 19-year-olds now that you mention it is because of his defense. If you change the search to OPS plus and set a plate appearance minimum of 200. Harper's OPS Plus is now the second greatest for a 19-year-old since World War II, lags far behind Tony Conigliaro, and is just a little bit ahead of Mickey Mantle, just a little bit ahead of Cesar Cedeno, and not that far ahead of Griffey or Claudel Washington.

So in fact, by offensive measures, he is having an amazing season for a 19-year-old, but not quite a record-breaking one. Yeah, it's funny that, I mean, obviously because his career was truncated by considerable amount, Tony Canigliero is not a name that we find ourselves going to very often. But if one effective method is a judging of players, you know, his true talent and his future overall talent by what he produces at what age relative to what level, then it's, you know, it's very possible that Tony Canigliero was one of the best baseball players ever. Well, he actually had sort of leveled off before the injury. His 2021 and 22 seasons were basically not much of an improvement and, in fact, a little bit of a step back.

I'm sorry. Actually, my headphones don't work when jerks are talking. I didn't know we were coming here to tear down Tony Canigliero. Yeah, why are you doing that? Is it because you don't like the Red So, why are you doing that? Is it because you don't like the Red Sox or because he's Italian? Is it because he's Italian? You come to this podcast with an anti-Italian

bias? I actually have gotten into the problem of the Italian scourge on this podcast before, as Ben can confirm. Is that true? I did, yeah. I will send you a link. It was embarrassing. Sounds horrible. It involved

a famous baseball writer and it was mostly accidental. I look forward to hearing it. Okay. In my private time. Carson, remind us what your dumb topic was. Yeah. Oh, I have an answer.

The league leaders of your heart or the league leaders in your heart you can choose whichever preposition you want do you want to set the model for us can you tell us who yours is uh i would say among the league leaders we might have the same one i i'm not i wouldn't be shocked if we have the same one um is max scherzer the reason the reason i like max scherzer so much uh first of all um he was the victim of uh rather poor luck to begin the season um i mean entering the season in any case uh he has two different color eyes which is strange we can all agree on that and he's noted and famous for pitching to pitch fx by which i mean at certain points in his career, especially when PitchFX was first becoming,

sort of gaining notoriety, he would pitch differently game to game to see what it looked like on the PitchFX readouts, which I consider... You're kidding me. This is a real thing? Yeah, yeah, yeah. He would pitch a little bit differently game to game

to see how PitchFX picked it up, which to me is an act of unparalleled nerddom. Yeah, who was it? Who was it who discovered this? I think it was a Detroit writer who talked about it. I think if you Google Scherzer and PitchFX, you'll find stuff on him. That might be apocryphal, the story I'm

telling, but guess what? I believe it, so I don't care. You'd think he could have arranged some sort of exhibition or test if he had wanted to so it's not to experiment in in a game situation but it's a much better story this way yeah it's much better story and i'm telling it like that uh and then max scherzer um was very much a victim of batted ball lock etc uh over the first half of the season and then proceeded to be more or less the best pitcher over the first half of the season, and then proceeded to be more or less the best pitcher over the second half. So for those basic reasons, Max Scherzer probably leads the league in my heart, I would say.

Also, his pitches are great. I mean, he's got like a 93 to 98 mile per hour fastball, great slider, and a change that, well, varying degrees. We talked about Max Scherzer on this podcast. I think Ben and I are both fans of his. And Ben actually wrote an early piece about him this year predicting great things. And then it took about one month of Max Scherzer being absolutely terrible before that came true. So I don't know that Ben gets credit.

One of my few successes. Very prescient, Ben. Thank you. Very prescient. Thank you. Ben? Okay, well, I guess for reasons that aren't entirely clear to me even, Brian Bruni has been leading the league in my heart for several seasons now,

and Brian Bruni pitched one perfect inning this season. Uh, and it was the most Brian Bruni inning possible. He struck out two batters and he walked two batters. And that was the end. He pitched, he pitched imperfect innings among them, or that was the only inning he pitched? That was one inning and then he was done. Uh, so that was possibly my favorite individual season of 2012. But to go with a more conventional choice, I guess I couldn't really do better than the combination, if you allow me to pick two, of R.A. Dickey and Fernando Rodney,

who have certainly had two of the most improbable pitching seasons, and there is nothing that makes me like a player more than doing something improbable. So the combination of the hard knuckleball that no one has really ever thrown before and the control that he has with it and the recent revelation that he's been pitching with a torn muscle for most of the season and the way that he holds runners on, which there was an article at BP about earlier this week, all contribute to my affection for Ari Dickey's season. his transition or his reinvention as a control pitcher who does not allow any runs is something that has been a constant source of enjoyment throughout this season. The thing I like about Rodney is that it raises the question of whether this was actually validation of Tony Regan's for signing him to such a ridiculous contract, whether in fact Tony Regan's was right all along and that it was just a stupid Mike Butcher

or somebody who was keeping Rodney from succeeding, because maybe Regan saw the same thing that the Rays did, and it was simply that the Angels weren't able to mine that something. Yes, although I guess if they weren't able to mine that something, then that speaks to their decision to sign him. Yes, although I guess if they weren't able to mine that something, then that speaks to their decision to sign him. Well, maybe, but I mean, you know, Regan's can only do so much. He's a genius, but he's a solitary genius.

Well, you have to account for your coaching staff, though, too. I mean, wouldn't that be something you'd take into account? It would, but what are you going to do? Not sign great players? Not sign the best pitcher in the major leagues really are you going to turn down the best pitcher in the major leagues just because you uh you can't trust your manager and pitching coach with them at a certain point you just have to you have to trust the guys in your organization nobody likes a boss that tries to do everything you want regans to go down there and fix rodney he'll do it he'll do it he has to i also wait can i follow up on on bruny yes please uh because i'm curious a couple

things uh limber did you see that inning live uh i did yes uh it was the only inning of baseball i am not a watcher of baseball or a great watcher of baseball, especially for someone who writes about it. But I was informed that Bruni had been called up, and so I was prepared. He had pitched in AAA extremely well for the second straight season, and so I was forewarned that there could be a Brian Bruni appearance in the offing. So I was forewarned that there could be a Brian Bruni appearance in the offing. And is he what team again? Well, that is an insult. He was with the White Sox for his one inning.

Okay, yeah. I would have guessed Yankees. I would have guessed Orioles at this point. Yes, that is usually the safest bet uh i like uh i like that ben attempted to give a conventional answer to the question who is the major league leader in your heart yeah i mean if you're gonna hold me to it you know uh let me get serious for a second uh and my uh my turn, my pick is Sean Doolittle. I think that the thing that I love most about baseball is when a – and in fact, I think Ben and I have talked about how any unusual thing you introduce to the sport is welcome to us. We will cheer anything up to and including a pit in the field. And the reason is that I think that by adding these strange variables, you end up learning about the sport in ways that at this point in the academy, it is hard to continue learning.

And so Sean Doolittle taught us, I think, a lot about baseball because Sean Doolittle, as everybody is aware,, was not a pitcher as of 14 months ago, had never pitched in a professional game, had never stood on a mound in a professional game, and because of lingering injuries to his first baseman's body, they started having him throw long toss, they liked his arm, they moved him to the mound. He threw his first inning in the last game of, I believe, i believe the instructional league last year which means we have not yet reached the one year anniversary of his debut on the mound he pitched 26 or 27 batters i think i think 26 or 27 batters in the minors and then they called him up and he

has been a dominant major league reliever he has the 10th best strikeout to walk ratio among all Major League pitchers this year with a minimum of 40 innings. He has struck out 58 batters in 43 games. He has a Sterling record in ERA and WIP and all those things. Major League Baseball, which for years we've been told pitching is complicated and mentally challenging and that it takes years to learn how to do it and that it is an academic pursuit as much as it is a physical one. That is probably true for starters, but for one-third of the game, for one-third of the pitchers, for one-third of the innings that are thrown, it has nothing to do with any of that. it is simply throwing fastballs and um that's what relievers are these days that's what the major league bullpen is now and it's a wonderful thing to realize just how simple it is and i hope that there are many sean do littles to come he is also a very nice person who um i i say that because he one time talked to me. That's the only thing that I require. Of anyone, actually. Sam Miller will refer to you as nicest guy in the world. Or lady.

All you have to do is talk to him. Once. So Sean Doolittle leads the league in my heart. Yeah. So what you're saying is anyone can be a reliever, you or I. We could just go out there and pump fastballs. That's what I'm taking from this. Oh, actually, I do have Sean Doolittle's pitch mix before me.

To your point, it does appear as though he's been throwing 85% or more fastballs. Yes. And in fact, this might be a fun project for you, Carson. If you go back and watch his breaking ball over the course of the year, you will see a delightful inconsistency to it as it goes from curveball to slider and back again. It really is a pitch that he is learning on the fly. And he uses it, and I've seen him strike batters out, and it is sometimes a very attractive pitch. But it's fascinating how unrefined it is. And to see a pitcher learn at this level is

something that you don't expect. I guess at that point, if he's throwing, because he's throwing, what, 90, 94? He averages 94, he hits 97. And when he was in college, he hit, he basically sat 87 and reached 90. So he was a reliever in college as well. And not considered a very good prospect, but probably draftable. One wonders why he was playing first base. One wonders why he was playing first base. He was much greater on that. Well, Carson, what I just said. He was throwing 87 in college and topping out at 90.

Yeah, right, but I mean relative to, say, right field, for example. I mean, maybe it has to do with his mobility, I guess. He was considered maybe a JT Snow type as a first baseman. They saw more value there than they ever did as a pitcher. It was really once they started working on his mechanics that he added the velocity. And once he spoke to Sam Miller, really, was when things turned around for him. It should be noted, his numbers in the minors as a hitter, I'm going to guess that some of this is a combination of California League and PCL.

But he did have some good numbers. He did. He would have been a guy who would have been probably on a team top 10 list, but certainly not a prospect 100 list. So, you know, that kind of guy. I'd like to compliment Carson on his ability to soundlessly browse the Internet while we record. His keyboard is very loud, though. Really?

I think a quiet click, but a very loud keyboard. Oh, for me, you can hear it? I can't hear a thing. You couldn't? No. But you could, Miller? You you can hear it? I can hear a thing. You couldn't? No. But you could, Miller? You're sure that's not... That was probably me.

You're sure it's not Lindbergh? It could have been Ben. It was at parts of the show that I would have expected you to be distracted rather than Ben. Well, I've tried to be pretty quiet. I also have a microphone that is unidirectional, and so it helps to prevent other sounds from entering into it.

I thought this was fun. Should we do this again sometime? I think we should. Yeah, sometime. Is this how it ends? Usually what I say is, this has been excellent. Stick around for some adult conversation. I usually invite the guests for

adult conversation after this okay well why don't you why don't you do that and then play us out oh yeah i'll play us out um that reminds me that you ever seen that bill o'reilly uh there's a bill o'reilly youtube video and he's like a nightline as a younger man and he's like what what does this mean what does play us out absolutely berating his producer okay well carson we'll do it live yes yes we will do it like hey listen though guys i yeah i would like to thank you for participating in this experiment thank you for proposing it yeah that's sam miller that's ben lindbergh i'm carson to stoo. Do you guys agree to that? Yes, I will go that far.

This has been simultaneously Fangraph's audio and Effectively Wild.