Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 75: The David Ortiz Decision and the Offseason Outlook for the Red Sox

Episode Date: November 2, 2012

Ben and Sam welcome Matthew Kory to the podcast to discuss the David Ortiz contract negotiations and the outlook for the Red Sox this winter.

Hello. I'm Matt. How's it going? Good. Great. How are you? I'm doing good. Thank you.

All right. We're using all our best material here. That's the funniest thing I've ever heard you say, Ben. I was going to say, Ben literally did just use his best material. I've never heard you say Ben. I was going to say Ben literally did just use his best material. Hey, guys, I'm sitting outside on the porch, and I'm kind of close to a street, and there are cars that go up and down it occasionally.

Unfortunately, my children are sleeping inside, and I don't have a garage with a Honda Fit in it. So I hope this is okay. If not, I can go inside, but I'd rather not. No, the sound is fine. This is okay. If not, I can go inside, but I'd rather not. No, the sound is fine. This is okay. And actually, I have been recording this time, this whole time, so maybe we just use it.

In which case, I guess we can start talking about real things. I should introduce the show first. Yes. This is Episode 75 of Effectively Wild, the Baseball Prospectus daily podcast. In New York, New York, I am Ben Lindberg, and in Long Beach, California, he is Sam Miller, one of those two people you just heard is. And we mentioned at the start of this week that we would be trying to continue the daily show format, but that in order to do that, when there is no baseball being played, we would have to rely on some

help from our friends and from you. Not that you are not our friends, you are also our friends in a way. And so that's what we're doing in this show. So we are joined by Matthew Corey, baseball prospectus, author and podcast host and over-the-monster blogger and writer on many sites. So thank you for joining us, Matthew, Matt. Thanks, Ben. thank you for joining us, Matthew, Matt. Thanks, Ben. So we have brought Matt on, for one, because we like Matt and want to talk to Matt, but also we were prompted by a listener question from Alex, who sent us a question earlier today and said, with the free agency date only two days away and Ortiz still not signed by the Sox, he might hit the free agency market. What do you think are the chances that he does? The same situation happened last year, but then

Boston offered him arbitration and eventually got him signed. Do you think he goes anywhere or does he stay with Boston? Thanks. So we're going to talk this out and we'll see if we can answer and what we think about that. Recently, at least last week even, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Sox would bring Ortiz back and would extend him for two years. When I was writing an article about the probable candidates for a qualifying offer, I almost didn't include him because it seemed like it was being reported that it was such a sure thing that he was about to sign. So I did include a note and said that it seems likely that he would sign an extension, but he could be a qualifying offer guy if that doesn't happen for some reason. And now it seems like there's a good chance that that could happen. The deadline or the exclusive negotiating window, I guess,

that the Sox have with Ortiz ends about 24 hours from right now as we're recording just after midnight on on friday morning um and so something will happen we'll have some sort of development soon uh so i guess matt do you want to speculate about what you think will happen in the next day or so and beyond um sure i can't believe we would have got this far without a deal if there was a deal to be had. So, you know, with, like you said, 24 hours to go, it doesn't seem like there's a whole lot of urgency. falls or if it's both sides or whatever but um but you would think that something would have been done if it were going to get done um so my guess is that ortiz goes on the market um the red sox will give him a qualifying offer um which is actually i think a step down from what he made last year yeah um by a little less than a million dollars and And they'll see what the market says about a 37-year-old designated hitter

who, when he was healthy last year, was one of the best hitters in baseball. It's kind of an interesting situation. Yeah, I was going to say that he really was, when he was on the field, which was basically not at all in the second half. But one day, yeah. Yeah. But when he was healthy,

he had his most productive season ever on a, on a rate basis. He had his highest true average ever by just a point or two over his previous highs. But he was really as, as productive as he has ever been. And really, if you limit the plate appearance threshold to just what he had, which was a little less than 400, only Mike Trout, Buster Posey, and Joey Votto had higher true averages

than he did. Yeah, he crushes Miguel Cabrera. Yeah. MVP. MVP. He crushes, relatively speakingrera. Yeah. MVP. Crushes, relatively speaking. Right. But he did miss almost the entire second half with an Achilles injury. And I guess, I mean, do you think that he will ultimately be back,

or what would you put the probability at, Matt? I would say it's a pretty high probability. I don't know, 80%, 85%. I mean, for one thing, it's going to cost a first-round draft pick to sign him for just about any team that would really want him. So, you know, that's going to be a dis know disincentive to to give him a contract he wants multiple years um i think you know the that's probably the sticking point how much for the you know how much the red sox pay him over the the second season is my guess of what the sticking

point is on this contract um so you know i i guess it's a it's i i think still the best fit is with boston um but you know anytime a guy gets out in the free agent market it's it's entirely possible i guess the red sox should be thankful the dodgers are in the national league ortiz could could Ortiz play third? Shortstop only. He doesn't, he doesn't have the arm for third. Matt, it seems to me from way out here and only having sort of the, the national media take on, on, on Boston. It seems to me that generally people who play in Boston either love it or they absolutely hate it. And it's a prison and they can't wait to escape. And it doesn't seem like those two categories are necessarily mutually exclusive.

There's a little bit of leaping from one side to the other. Ortiz was always the loved it guy, as far as I could tell. But last year was a pretty miserable year for everybody in the organization. He, of course, had that sort of post-season feud with Bobby Valentine. I don't know if Bobby Valentine leaving makes that all go away. But it does seem like the sort of place where, makes that all go away but um it does seem like the sort of place where um like on a long enough timeline the probability of being uh miserable in boston which is one uh is david ortiz a do you get the feeling that david ortiz is a happy bostonian or is there some tension there i think it's somewhere between the two uh sides that you've described

there is no between the two you said you said you're either happy or or you hate it right yeah i did not just say that i that's right there is nothing between you're either deliriously joyful or you're you're trapped in I'm with you now. Okay, that's fine. Yeah. I think he, I mean, as we all know, he's horribly bipolar. So he goes right from just completely freaking out happy to just in the corner crying, I'm making all this up. No, I think Ortiz kind of has these moments over the course of the year when he gets sick of it.

I mean, it seems like just about every year there is some ridiculous something that comes up and Ortiz speaks out against it. Whether it's player-created or media-created, I won't go there right now, but Ortiz has one or two moments each year, I would say, where he gets kind of a fishbowl mentality. Can you give us some examples of those sorts of things in the past? I think he spoke out against the – this was after the season, I guess, or maybe towards the end of it in 2011,

the whole chicken and beer thing that happened. I have never heard of that. Yeah, I know. Well, it's sort of an inside Boston kind of thing. Okay. Yeah. And then this season, like you mentioned, with Valentine, and the media, I think, sensed tension in the Red Sox clubhouse,

you know, over the course of the year. And I think there were a lot of probing questions about that. And I think Ortiz got a little tired of that. So those are the two things that spring to mind immediately. But I can I interrupt real quick? Yeah, please. Sorry. He was super bad in 2008, the first half of 2008, and I believe the first half of 2009, like super, super, super bad. Yes. And yet he sort of – he came out of that and as we noted, he's once again an elite hitter. I just wonder how did sort of Boston treat him during that? Is there any possibility that experience built up goodwill if they were kind of particularly patient with him or perhaps they weren't particularly patient with him? My guess is it didn't build up any goodwill, but I don't know how much he carries with him.

I mean, he was, like you said uh you know spectacularly awful for super bad um super bad for uh I think it was one month the you know the April to start off the year in uh what did you say 2008 2009 um and then uh the following year he was bad for even longer and it and it like, if you watched the guy, it looked like he had no idea. He couldn't catch up to a fastball. He couldn't handle a breaking pitch. He was as hopeless as I've ever seen a hitter look. And that is something, actually, that has strengthened my belief in statistical analysis.

that has strengthened my belief in statistical analysis because watching him then and watching him now, it's a different person. But I guess everybody gets into a rut. But to answer your question, he, I think, probably didn't enjoy himself too much that time. I think the fact that he got on his case a little bit, the media definitely got on his case. So, yeah. It seems to me like this is kind of, I mean, it reminds me of the Jeter situation that the Yankees had a couple off seasons ago where a guy was coming off. I mean,

I guess Ortiz is coming off a more productive season than Jeter was, or at least when he was healthy. But there was, I think, the sense that something was going to get done because they were just a better fit for each other than any other team would have been. And not just in a comfort way, but in the sense that Jeter is probably materially more valuable to the Yankees than he would be for any other team, just from a marketing sense and a merchandising sense. And kind of more, I mean, those are tangible things that we don't always consider with free agents. things that we don't always consider with free agents. And I think the same thing probably applies to Ortiz and Boston and that he is sort of the face of the franchise and whatever benefit you get from having a guy like that, they get. Whereas if say the Indians were to sign him

to DH for them, he probably wouldn't bring the same kind of ancillary value. And so they might not be willing to pay him the same. So it seems to me like, I don't know what the holdup has been in the negotiations. And I don't think it, I don't think Ortiz is entirely without leverage here, but it seems to me like if Boston extends the qualifying offer and just lets him feel out the rest of the market. As good as he was when he was healthy, I kind of have a hard time imagining some other team wanting to pay a 37-year-old DH coming off a pretty serious injury, not only more than the $13.3 million qualifying offer, but also giving up the draft pick that they would have to give up to sign him. So it seems to me like if he lets this go that far, he could even possibly lose out on that second year that he could get.

It's not a perfect comparison because Ortiz has a few of these good years recently. But in 2010, Jim Tomey was the DH for the Twins. He had 340 plate appearances, which is about 40 fewer than Ortiz had this year. And he hit.283,.412,.627. He actually had an OPS plus 11 points higher than Ortiz. His OPS plus would have led all of baseball uh this year and perhaps that year as well and um it's not as though there was a two-year 30 million dollar contract waiting for him I'm sort of scrolling down right now

he made three million dollars the next year on a one-year contract well you got a future family and so that and he was uh I mean he was 40 at time, and Ortiz is only going to be 37, but the numbers were really good. And the fact is, I mean, I don't know. I guess Tomy was certain to be a part-timer. Ortiz has been a full-timer up until this year. So like I said, it's not a perfect comparison, but, I don't know, two years and $30 million, which is kind of the public,

the bar that has been set by Ortiz Camp, it does seem like he could get out there and realize that there's nothing approaching that. I think you're right, Sam. I'm just saying what Ben just said. I literally just rephrased what Ben said

almost exactly. And I totally bought it, too. I literally just rephrased what Ben said almost exactly. Well, and I totally bought it too. I was like totally giving you credit for it. Like, well done. That was nicely thought out. But this guy Ben isn't bringing anything to the table though. one little thing i i i haven't i don't have tome splits in front of me but my sense is that he doesn't hit lefties particularly well um over the last two years ortiz has improved against lefties a lot um in 2011 i think he actually had a reverse split um and he hit lefties better than he hit righties and it kind of came out of nowhere he he wasn't hitting lefties really at all before that. And this year he hit lefties almost as well as he hit righties, which is to say really, really well. So I, but actually, and we talked before a couple minutes ago about the rough starts he had, and that was in 2009 and 2010.

He had a 623 OPS in April of 2009. And then in 2010, he had a 524 OPS in April. There we go. And he had one home run in the first two and a half months or something in 2009, right? Something like that, yeah. I wrote an article about how he turned himself around, or at least how I speculated that he did. And I almost completely forget my conclusions but I'm sure they were though I remember that yeah it was very insightful I

don't remember any of the insights but um I mean he lost weight certainly he got a lot thinner and there's a lot made in the media about him working out and getting into shape in the offseason. Yeah, and I think he wanted to get more plate appearances in spring training. And I think I at least convinced myself that I had detected some changes in his stance at the plate and his leg kick and that sort of thing. So it seemed like he did do some things differently. It wasn't just entirely inexplicable, or at least there were kind of narratives that we could impose to explain it. I think he definitely did some different stuff.

I guess, obviously, as we've discussed, none of us remember the article. I'm looking at it right now. He dialed back his swing rate. Somehow he got much better on fastballs over 93 miles an hour. And he's much more upright and a little bit more of a closed stance. I'm not sure why. Oh, and he's also slimmer. He lost 17 pounds, and it's visible to the eye.

Yes, he was definitely slimmer. Oh, and also, actually, surprisingly, a much bigger leg kick now as well. Ah, that was it. I was going to make the point that anyone who hit like he hit before would probably try to make changes. So just the fact that we tried to make changes. That's a very good point. Matt, can I ask you kind of a more broader question about the Red Sox?

Yeah. And forgive me if this reveals my ignorance. The answer to this might be obvious to everybody else. But they dumped like $60 million worth of contracts on the Dodgers. They dumped Euclid's $13 million as well. Cody Ross is a free agent. So they should have something like $75 or $80 million without even including David Ortiz. like $75 or $80 million without even including David Ortiz. Obviously, there are raises, there's arbitration, but why shouldn't I be predicting that they are going to sign Granke and Hamilton and anybody else that they want to this offseason?

I think they should sign Granke, but I think the reason you wouldn't predict it is because of at least the perception that the contracts that they handed out over the last, I'd say, three years, roughly, the long-term contracts were failures. Now, I'm not going that far. I wouldn't characterize it that way. But I think a lot of people would. characterize it that way but i think a lot of people would um not and i don't know if the red socks are um or would use that word but i think that they're going to be a little reticent to turn right around after after handing all those contracts to the dodgers um to turn right around

and give a big contract to to a free agent um which you know again i don't think it's necessarily a condemnation of big contracts per se. I think you have to be judicious about who you give them to. So yeah, I wrote a piece about that over at Over the Monster, which Mark would kill me if I didn't tell you. But I mean if you're the Red Sox, you kind of have to get back on the horse free agent-wise, right? Yeah, what other what other choices there if you're the red ducks you have a lot of money eventually you're gonna have to start signing some people you can't just be so shell-shocked by lackey or crawford or whoever else that you never do it again i agree they had a hundred and they had a they had 175

million dollar payroll in 2012 you can answer whatever ben just said, but at the end of it, I'm curious what you think their payroll will be in 2013. I think it's going to be somewhere around $100 to $100, probably $120 million, somewhere around there. Oh, wow. Goodness gracious. Maybe $100. I don't know. It depends on – I mean, I don't have a great read, and I don't think anyone really does, be 100 i don't know it depends on i mean i don't have a great read and i don't think anyone really does on on what the front office thinks that the current the guys who would suit up right now of which there's not a full team but um but what those guys are capable of i mean part of the

reason the red sox had such a horrific season last year was that they you know they had a bunch of injuries and they had a bunch of guys who were supposed to be really good play really badly um and then at the end they they traded everybody and people got hurt and things just went way downhill from there but um so i don't i don't know what you know what the perception is what they're expecting i mean if they're expecting um you know buck holtz and lester to be you know number twos number ones, whatever, and lead the rotation, then maybe you do go out and you get a grinky to supplement that or you make a big trade or something like that. But if they think that the cabinet is bare, so to speak,

then maybe there's no sense in throwing a whole bunch of money at it. Maybe you just wait for a bunch of the guys that they have in the farm system to develop and come up and create the nucleus of the next great Red Sox team. But come on. I mean, they're the Red Sox. I mean, really, I don't mean that to be flip. I mean, there are certain teams that – maybe the Red Sox aren't one of those teams, but there are certain teams that just can't be seen rebuilding.

That's not how they market themselves. They're big market teams, and it might be prudent to step back, but you have to do it sort of seamlessly and without anybody noticing. And it's hard to imagine that the Red Sox are just going to allow a three-year cycle of winning 70-some games. Yeah, I mean, I understand that. And I think with the guys that they have right now they are a much better team if they have a decent run of health this year they're a much

better team than they were last year just straight away without any additions or subtractions so i i think um i don't think you necessarily need to go out there and buy up a whole bunch of free agents to get a better team next year. I think just by putting the same guys on the field, you're going to already have a better team. At least better results. But, yeah, I mean, again, I don't know what the Red Sox front office is thinking. I would be surprised if they went out and signed Granke. I would be surprised if they were ever interested in hamilton at all right but i i would be too from a sort of uh cultural perspective but on the other hand i they also cut they also cut dice case contract right so i mean we're talking about a lot of money on a pretty mediocre free

agency class. Dice K was $8 million a year. I mean, they dropped $60 million on the posting fee, but that was gone the second they signed him. So the per year cost of Dice K was just $8. Okay, well, great. Now we know. Now, Ben, now we know everything about the Red Sox, don't we? Yeah, we do. More than we did before, great. Now we know. Now, Ben, now we know everything about the Red Sox, don't we? Yeah, we do.

More than we did before, certainly. So thank you for joining us, Matt. And we are done for the week. We'll be back with Episode 76 on Monday.