Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 750: A Postseason Smorgasbord

Episode Date: October 23, 2015

Ben and Sam discuss a smattering of postseason topics, including Kyle Schwarber, a playoff-team draft, ALCS Game 6, and more.

Take me back, take me back, take me way back. You got the keys to the kingdom, come on home. Good morning and welcome to episode 750 of Effectively Wild, the daily podcast from Baseball Prospectus, presented by The Play Index at BaseballReference.com. I am Ben Lindberg of Grantland, joined by Sam Miller of Baseball Prospectus. Hello. Hello. I went to the diner for brunch.

Oh, I meant to ask you. So. Are you, how long is it going to be open? It's not clear. It was reported this summer that it would be around for another 6 to 12 months, so it's not clear. It could be any time, so I've got to go all the time. Well, it couldn't be any time. If it's 6 to 12 months, 6 months doesn't start for 4 more months. Yeah, maybe.

So are you going to eat there now every day? Probably not. I did go today because Stephen Goldman, formerly of BP and SB Nation and other places was in town. So we met at the diner and then my girlfriend came home after work and she wanted to get food and she suggested diner. Yeah. And I probably would have gone, except I heard you in my head saying that I go every day. So I felt like the day after I denied that that was the case, I didn't want to go twice in one day. Yeah, so if you had gone, what would you have ordered?

I only got half my usual order for brunch. So I was up for a day or so, and I just wanted to go to sleep. Noted. Yeah. Hey,ed. Yeah. Hey, Ben. Yeah. I'm curious about one question about the diner. Okay.

Do you like it, or is it just near? I like it. It's, I mean, I don't know. It's okay, right? It's okay if it were another diner. That'd be okay, too, right? Probably. I like most diners.

Yeah. All right. Yeah. So really what this is is you're going to have to walk a little further. Yeah. I don't go out of my way for food. Okay. Restaurants are overrated.

The dining experience is overrated. And you, by New York standards, you live fairly far away from commerce. I do, yes. It's like upwards of three blocks. Yeah, yeah. Like 9th Avenue is good for restaurants and things, and I'm between 11th and 12th, so it's, you know, two and a half avenues. Yeah, which is like, what is it? It's five avenues for a mile and 20 blocks for a mile.

Is that right? 20 blocks for a mile. Yeah, right? 20 blocks for a mile. Yeah. I think it's like three blocks to an avenue. So seven, basically seven avenue blocks to a mile. I always thought it was five. Five avenue blocks to a mile. Or maybe four.

I don't know. It seems a little long to me. All right. So we missed the elimination. We didn't really miss it. We can still talk about it. The Cubs were eliminated. The Mets have moved on to the World Series. There is a crucial game that takes place today, Friday, between the Blue Jays and the Royals.

There's managerial news. The Dodgers manager, Don Mattingly, mutually parted ways with the team. And the Mariners might be hiring a manager and both of the new managers of those teams might be friends of the podcast yeah I wouldn't call contacts acquaintances of the podcast acquaintances of a podcaster I will say that

people we have talked to I'll say this I have zero so far as I know I have zero managerial cell phone numbers. Yeah, so this would give us a couple. In a week, I might have two. Yeah. Is a way of phrasing it.

Yeah, that's true. I've got GMs on my Gchat now. Yeah, well, yeah. Plural or singular? I think plural. See, I have the singular. I don't know. We must be getting old.

The people that we know are moving to work for teams now. I wonder who your second one is. It'll remain a mystery. Yeah. All right. Anyway, yeah. So quite a bit. Considering that, isn't there supposed to be a news blackout during October?

Yeah, usually you don't see things like this happen. I was just reading the other day. I was reading the piece that I wrote when the Dodgers hired Friedman, and it kind of blew me away when I saw the date. It was like right in the middle of, I think, the World Series. Yeah, because they lost in the LCS. So right in the middle of the World Series, they announced like the biggest GM move, the biggest GM hiring, at least since Theo, and maybe longer. Yeah, I don't know.

What's the real disadvantage to that? I mean, I know that the focus is supposed to be on the games, but is anyone getting so distracted by Don Mattingly that they forgot the playoffs were going on? Like, oh, I guess I can't watch the game. I forgot to watch the game. I was reading about Don Mattingly that they forgot the playoffs were going on. Like, oh, I guess I can't watch the game. I forgot to watch the game. I was reading about Don Mattingly. So I don't really know what the actual byproduct of that is. Yeah, that's true. I guess you wouldn't want free agent stuff to start maybe.

Though, then again, I don't know what the... Some of that has started. Yeah, that sort of has started. Like, we had Granke opting out. Or not. I mean, he don't know what the... Some of that has started. We had Granke opting out. He hasn't officially just signed. That is a thing. We had the Mets. Didn't the Mets,

after David Murphy's fourth home run in a row, didn't they say that they still didn't plan to bring him back or something? Wasn't that a thing? They probably didn't say that, but that was a story. It would be weird if they did that'd be a bad move yeah so we're gonna we're gonna sign zach granky let some people go from this current team.

Theo Epstein gave a press conference, I think, today and talked about, among other things, he talked about how controlling the running game was going to be an organizational imperative between now and next year. And I wondered what you thought about that. I mean, obviously they have Jon Lester, but this was an issue for them in the LCS. Not quite A's in the 2014 wildcard game levels,

but there were some games that turned on the inability to control the running game. And so I wonder if you hear that, does that wreak of overreaction? I mean, the value of the running game and of stopping the running game is a constant. And you have the same essential information today that you had a year ago about whether it is worth focusing on the running game. Does it seem like overreaction to a short series to declare that it is now a problem? I mean, this was a good team. They won 98 games and had the best third-order winning percentage in the National League with this inability to control the running game. So I don't exactly know what it means.

I don't know if that just means 45 minutes in spring training so that there's a good video of people working on controlling the running game. But if it actually is something that takes away their focus or ability to do other things, would you consider that a decision well made? Well, I guess it smacks a little of the sort of spring training. Everyone has a goal in spring training and you say you're going to run more or you're going to work on stopping other teams from running more, and then a lot of times those things don't seem to actually happen in the season. But Zahadov Sharma did an unfiltered at BP the other day about this,

about the Cubs and holding runners, and he had quotes from Montero in there saying that we've got to do a better job holding the runners, and Joe Maddon saying this is a weakness and we're trying to become better of that I guess what Madden pointed out is that at this time of year your weaknesses might get exploited more just because there's so much advanced scouting going on and Madden said they've taken advantage of some pitchers being slow to the plate I think they probably scouted that you're always looking for a little nugget here or there that you might be able to utilize at that time of year so if you get away with it all year and then suddenly you stop getting away with it at the most important

time of the year that still seems like a reason why you would want to correct it it's not like you know i mean they still have good hitters and they don't have to work on having good players. They have pretty good players, so they should work on the little things, I guess. Yeah, I mean, I've talked about this with RJ at times because I think RJ is one of the, maybe the premier writer of running game control in the world today. And so we both love to talk about the pitchers who are exceptional at controlling the world today. So we both love to talk about the pitchers who are exceptional at controlling the running game. But I've talked to him at times about how controlling the running game is something that is seen

as being the sign of a very smart pitcher, a pitcher who takes every aspect of the game seriously. But it is also at times, and it has been at times, the sign of a very smart pitcher to ignore the running game, and particularly Greg Maddux was a guy who was sort of famously unconcerned with the running game to the point that basically everybody just ran wild on him for a while. And this was not intentional. This was not that he just couldn't get around the fact that he had a long delivery

or he couldn't throw pickoff moves or anything like that. His philosophy was that it was a small component of the offense. And it is true that not only is it a small component of the offense, but if you run more, to run more is not enough. You have to run more and run at a very high rate of success. And even still, every time you get thrown out, it undoes basically three stolen bases. And so in fact, if teams are running more,

it's not necessarily really even hurting you at all. Anyway, I'm scrolling down to see if I can find Greg Maddox's. Yeah, so like Greg Maddox in 2007, for instance, allowed 37 stolen bases and caught two runners um and basically like over the the end of his career he had i mean like one year out of the final 10 seasons of his career he had an above average caught stealing rate he just didn't care about it and that was seen as being kind of him being smart. And I don't know if Chris Young fits because Chris Young had a sort of physical disability when it came to the running game, but Chris Young is also a very, you know, known to be a smart pitcher.

He went to Princeton and all that. And, you know, he was a teammate of Greg Maddux at the same time, and he very famously allowed tons and tons of stolen bases. And so I forget what I was saying. Where do you think I was going? Well, that it's not necessarily that important. I mean, yeah. But there are times when it is important.

There are individual games where it's extremely important, whether it's like the Royals with the wild card comeback or in this series with the Mets sort of taking advantage of the – and, I mean, the Mets just thoroughly won that series in every way. So I don't know that it was just attributable to that. I mean, they were never losing in the series, which was complete domination, really. I'm still giving them credit for game six, but that's just me.

Well, so, you know, I don't know. You might as well work on it. Can't hurt. I mean, what else would it be taking time away from? I mean, obviously something, because they chose not to do it before maybe they're just lazy it could be yeah yeah anyway i feel like the teams that are getting eliminated like there's not a there's not a stench of decay around any of the teams that are getting eliminated really except for i mean the yankees have had a stench of decay

like almost permanently for several years now but other than that none of the teams that are getting eliminated like there's no like the tigers last year when they got eliminated there was a sense that maybe this was the end of the tigers or they were coming to the end and this was the window closing and i feel like none of the teams this year really have that. Obviously, Cubs fans very disappointed by the way that ended, and yet this seems to be the beginning of the Cubs, not the end. And you could say the same about the Astros. There's no real reason to think that the Pirates and Cardinals won't be competitive next year.

Ben, I want you to stop talking. Okay. I want you to open your inbox. real reason to think that the Pirates and Cardinals won't be competitive next year. I want you to stop talking. Okay. I want you to open your inbox. I want you to open the email I just sent you, which isn't there yet because Google is still giving me the option to undo. Okay. Do you use that function, by the way?

Yes, I've always used that. Wait, what do you mean always? It's existed for like two months. No, it was like a google labs feature before that you know gmail has google labs like add-ins that you could like a beta test kind of you can opt in so i've been using the undo for a long time and yeah it's completely changed my life and i still said and i still end up sending things that i regret. But it is the Peltzman effect in action. Because knowing that I can undo it, I am more careless before I hit send. And then sometimes I'll navigate away and then go, I shouldn't have.

And then I go back. But I undo like fully a quarter of my emails. Yeah, I probably do too. I almost use it to motivate myself. Like if I'm, sometimes I'll just send one without proofreading it, like just living on the edge. And then like in the countdown, I'll like proofread really efficiently

because I know I'm running out of time. All right, so you have my email. Yes, and your email is a list of the teams in this year's playoffs. All right, so we're going to draft. We're going to do a quick 40-second draft of next year's playoff teams from the list of this year's playoff teams. All right.

All right. Hang on, let me get a coin. All right, call it in the air. Go. Heads. It's heads. You get to pick first. Man, I always win those.

All right. I can, by the way, I have become convinced over the last few months that I can tell you whether the coin is heads or tails based on sound. I feel like almost 100% certain that I can do this. Like I knew that was heads. Test that. All right. Okay, so.

I'll say the Astros. Really? Yeah. All so. I'll say the Astros. Really? Yeah. All right. I'll say the Dodgers. Does that make sense? All right. Cubs.

Okay. Blue Jays. Mets. Okay. Cardinals. Pirates. Royals. Yankees.

Yeah. I would have too. All right. And I get the Rangers. Okay. All right. Draft complete Fun But do you agree that there's no Sense of finality

No sense of finality I mean there are teams that There was a sense of over performance But even in a couple of those cases Like the Mets There was a sense of overperformance, but also a team that was on the upswing. I mean, if you played this season out again, there's six or seven of these teams in retrospect,

even though we didn't pick any of them, six or seven teams in retrospect, you'd go, yeah, that's about right, they should make the playoffs. The Mets, I don't know. I don't know that I would pick the Mets if we were playing the season out again. Even with the roster, even knowing that they were going to make a trade, even knowing that Conforto was going to come out, you'd still be like, well, one of the pitchers is going to get hurt, and there's various other problems. And the Nationals will be good. That's the main thing, is that you'd think the Nationals would be good. So they maybe overperformed a little, but yeah, they're a team that was rising. They were a team

that I liked more this year, entering this year, than I liked the year before. Maybe that's what's interesting about this team. I think this slate, I liked almost every team more than I liked them the year before. Maybe even the Yankees, and the only real clear exception

is the Rangers, who needed health and a few things to break, right? They're the one team that, obviously, for reasons that are clear, you picked them last in this draft. And yet, I don't think they're going to be worse. Right, exactly. They're not decaying. They're as good a bet next year as they were this year.

And actually, they're a better bet this year. They're a better bet next year than they were this year, and actually they're a better bet this year. They're a better bet next year than they were this year, right? If I showed you their roster right now and I didn't tell you how they had done this year, you would probably and you were like a bookmaker or something,

just knowing their roster next year and knowing their roster this year on opening day, you would probably give them better odds next year. Yeah, I think so. I mean, they've got Darvish. They've got Hamels. They had some youth.

You know, their team stayed healthy. Yeah. So, yeah, it's not a bad team. I don't know who is the bad team. We've talked about how, I think last year we talked about how there really wasn't a clear tank successor to the Cubs and the Astros at that point no I mean I think we liked the maybe the Rockies and the Diamondbacks least of all but not an obvious one and it is kind of this state of baseball that if you can make a case that you're

a 70 win team or better you should probably go for it and the Twins actually I think the Twins were the leading tank contender at that point and and the Twins almost made the playoffs. And so that just goes to the point. So is there a current, who is the closest team to a tank team right now, would you say? Who's the team that is furthest away from any possibility of 88 wins? I'd say probably the Rockies.ies yeah it feels like it's always the rockies yeah um maybe the the phillies the phillies at this point i mean the phillies

like the phillies like i feel kind of better about the phillies than i do about the reds well the brewers i mean the ph Phillies at least have some Prospects There is definitely no tank team In the American League There's no intentional tank team There are bad teams There are bad teams, but there's no team that's doing What the Astros and Cubs were doing

There's no team that probably should be No There's no team that you look at and say They are definitely a true talent worse than 74 wins next year no so every team should basically be at least making some nod toward competitiveness this offseason in the american league yeah i think so and the national league i don't know that there's any team that's necessarily crying out for a total teardown but yeah the the rockies the reds the brewers the phillies and probably the braves are all in a pretty bad state and you could make the

case given how much they put on their balance sheet for the years in the future you could maybe make the case that if you totally stripped emotion from it uh that the padres would benefit from a teardown at this point i don't i don't know that i don't know i don't know that i see a path to success with this roster i might be wrong i've written i've written fairly positively about what preller did last offseason and also negatively later on yeah no no no not not about the original decision but just about where they are now, relative to where they were when he took over. Right, every player that he signed did worse than Pocota said, basically. That's what went wrong.

And they're just as bad with more money committed. Yeah, and of course, normally Pocota says says regression or expects regression, but even with that, Pakoda currently has them projected to be horrible. So yeah, I don't think I really see a path to success for them. So they're probably, given the amount of money they have and the age that they are, and also just the fact that the Dodgers are still going to be there next year, you could maybe make a case that more than any other team, they might benefit.

Because they could get pretty healthy in a hurry trading some of those guys, right? I mean, Kimbrell, for instance, what was the trade they turned down? Oh, wait, am I thinking of Kimbrell? Yeah, Kimbrell, right? The Astros trade, they asked for basically three top 75 prospects from the Astros, I think. And if they'd just taken two, they'd have two top 75 prospects right now. Yeah. So they could get some stuff.

Although, yeah, well, it didn't seem like there was that much they could do at the deadline when people were talking about that Preller should be realistic and should reset or something. There weren't that many people. Well, Upton had value that they didn't get anything out of. Kimbrel had value that they didn't get anything out of. And Shields, they certainly could have shed a lot of that money. I mean, there's six at least of these playoff teams would have added Shields to their rotation.

So, I mean, I'm not saying they would have gotten much back, but they could have at least shed the contract. B.J. Upton, Melvin Upton, is actually good again. Really? They could have. Yeah. Seriously, go look at Melvin Upton's season. All right.

Yeah. This is a new feature on the show. When we discover how players did. Ben opens the baseball reference page that nobody else can see. All right. Let's see how you did, Mel yeah you did pretty well yeah basically was like a three win player projected over the course of a season an above average hitter i don't understand this sport at all what are we even talking about i know all right so the royals and the blue jays have a big game today what are the x factors

so you know how they say the keys to the game yep my dad is a hundred percent convinced that that expression only exists because a car company sponsored it and wanted to have a pun. And that's why we say keys to the game. Do you believe that? Seems unlikely. Why do people say the key to success? That's how I feel. Is life sponsored by a car company at some point?

What is a key to the game, though? Because I say the same thing. And then he says, but what is a key to the game? What is it? What's the key to the game, though? Because I say the same thing. And then he says, but what is a key to the game? What is it? What's the key to the game? How do you pick a key? There usually isn't one, really. No.

There's no good one. It's usually just score more runs than the other team. Hit better balls. The key to success, though, is often an actual thing. You can say the key to success though is often an actual thing like you can say the key to success is getting a good education like that's there's something worthwhile about saying that phrase you could say the key to a good

game is having a good breakfast I mean a good day is having a good breakfast it's worthwhile what you're saying is that if you were sponsored by a breakfast company you could well you could just say I mean the concept behind it is consistent with human conversation like you're saying this thing depends on this other thing yeah but has

there ever been a key to a baseball game that was better than common that that that needed to be said there probably are things if we were willing to put in the time to figure out what the real key to a specific game was like if you're if i mean there are scouting reports on the players and so the key to a game maybe for a team is you know knowing what the guy's gonna throw in certain counts and watching for those pitches and so if we really wanted to go in-depth, we could come up with some sort of key. Yeah. But we don't. I agree with you.

We're too lazy. Yeah. I agree. I just wanted to... I don't want to give the insane argument that my father makes less credit than it deserves. So I will stand up for it against you. But yeah, you're right it's nuts so anyway the

royals and the blue jays game six uh what percentage chances do you think the blue jays have of winning this uh i know the answer by the way but do you think the blue jays have of winning this series well if it was coin flips then it'd be 25 right yeah but they're on the road so it's not coin flips and there's human beings playing they've got price and stroman so i'll say they've got a 30 shot yeah it's 29 cool 29 by pakoda so did you write about, are you writing about this series at all? Nope. I wrote about this series. Well, I previewed it. I wrote about the game, 5, and I wrote about how significant the 7th inning was.

Yeah. Did you read that? Yep. So, even though the Blue Jays were winning by 5, and there was essentially no tension left in that game, and there was essentially no tension left in that game, it became in a weird way an extremely tense inning in the whole series view because the Blue Jays were seriously, strongly considering going to David Price again.

And if the Royals could put two guys on in that inning, it seemed very likely that they would manage to get David Price, the Blue Jays' best pitcher, the American League's best pitcher, into mop-up work again. And we saw that the last time that a team got David Price into mop-up work, David Price couldn't pitch again. He couldn't pitch again in his scheduled start. He couldn't even pitch again in relief.

It didn't matter because the Blue Jays won. But it's a clear disadvantage on paper and in my mind, if not in John Gibbons' mind, to not have the best American League pitcher available to you. And so all the Royals had to do to make that happen seemed to be put two runners on base. And Alcides Escobar couldn't do it, and Ben Zobris couldn't do it, and Lorenzo Cain walked, and then Ericobar couldn't do it and ben zobus couldn't do it and lorenzo kane walked and then eric cosmer couldn't do it and in what turned out to be a surprisingly for me tense inning the blue jays essentially preserved their 30 chance if by my by my calculations if the royals had managed to put just two guys on and get David Price into the game, depending

on how Gibbons used him after that. And we don't know how Gibbons would have used him after that. He really wanted to use him. Gibbons said he was going to use him. Gibbons almost brought him in in the sixth because Estrada had allowed two fly balls. Yeah, he really wanted to use him. He really wanted to use him he really wanted to use him and so maybe he brings him in as a as a one batter guy to get morales or hosmer or nastakis maybe it's just one batter

and then maybe price i don't know maybe at that point price can come back or maybe price comes back in game seven or maybe on full rest and only stroman pitches on short rest or maybe gibbons does what he did in the lds and he just says well price is in i'm riding him and use them for the rest of the game and price is only a reliever now for the rest of the game and the difference between astrata works a one two three inning or you know allows one guy but still gets through the inning and the last thing i, which is Price pitches three innings and can only pitch in relief for the rest of the series, is like a 10%

series odds for the Blue Jays. It drops them from like 29% to 19%. And that's like a huge, huge difference over the course of a series. That's like replacing their entire roster with the Rangers roster or some bad team's like replacing their entire roster with like the rangers roster

or some bad teams roster worse than the rangers that's good rangers fans aren't gonna be happy name a team they're already upset diamondbacks like replacing with the diamondbacks roster and um so it was uh it turns out to be huge and i'm almost now i don't actually care who wins it i guess i kind of like writing about the royals more and i like andy uh so i guess kind of i'm i'm rooting for the royals but i don't really care who wins the series in any particular way but now i sort of want the blue jays to win because i feel like that will be a moment i remember that will be the key to the series the key to the games key to the series is all the key to everything the key to life and uh and i will you're in the pocket a big key i

will remember it forever and i also want to see how john gibbons uses david price in a world series because who knows yeah third base i don't know no could be anything yeah i mean he has had it tough i guess as far as left-handed pitchers go in that he lost brett cecil who was the number one lefty and then aaron loop has been unavailable for much of the postseason for family reasons or whatever it is so he has had a handicap there but it is still a strange way of approaching it now it has been pointed out that uh it is a stupid rule that well stupid rule it seems like a stupid rule bad rule that aaron loop who is essentially on some sort of bereavement leave where it hasn't really been reported. It sounds, just based on the lack of reporting, I can assume it's something awful and something that we should be very sympathetic toward,

something that is way bigger than baseball. And so he hasn't been available. But he hasn't been available in a fairly unpredictable way, and Major League Baseball rules haven't allowed the Blue Jays to replace him on their roster. And so they've essentially been playing with 24 men and without a lefty in their bullpen because of this. And so that seems like a bad rule. But I'm curious whether you think that the Blue Jays erred by not replacing Ryan Tapera with Mark Burley in between series so that they would at least have a lefty given the unpredictability of loop.

I mean, it's very clear that they have no intention of using Ryan Tappera in any particular situation that matters as it is. Well, you could say the same about Burley, I guess. Well, except Burley's left-handed. And Burley, I could see using Burley. I mean, why not? Burley's not a bad pitcher. Yeah, he ended the season poorly.

He was an above-average starter this year. Yeah, the trajectory of his season was bad, I guess. But you never know. Coming out of the bullpen, he might throw 84. Yeah. People have given up on Mark Burley multiple times over the course of his career. I love Mark Burley. As far back as his age 27 season.

As far back as his age 24 season. So, I mean, I just feel like Burley is always an adjustment away from being great again but he's left-handed and he has length and he's left-handed he's left-handed look i'm not saying that on a normal team you would do this but on a team where your manager is bringing in the american league's best pitcher in mop-up work because he's the only lefty yeah that's when that's when you bring in burley that's when you want burley right yeah sure that makes sense so i don't know it's i don't know whether they could be blamed for failing to anticipate continued unavailability of loop or not but but they know what's going on obviously so maybe so maybe. I don't know. It's weird that there's bereavement leave during the regular season,

but not bereavement leave now. I don't know what the difference is, really. Unless you say that, like, at this time of year, you're supposed to want it so much that, like, you can't take time off if someone dies or something. So unless that's the message that you want to be sending, then you might as well have bereavement leave now too i would guess that the message is more that we trust you less

in the postseason we think you're more likely to lie about this in the postseason and we think the stakes are higher in the postseason i don't know it'd be hard to lie about bereavement leave i mean like even in like Even in a normal job, they sometimes ask for verification on your bereavement leave, and it's not like they have detectives on the case in HR at the Orange County Register. They just go,

show me your plane ticket. So yeah, it does seem like it'd be hard to fake somebody else's death. It would be difficult. What's the scenario where you'd want to do that is if someone gets hurt, then you'd fake bereavement? Yeah, you're right. I mean, with bereavement leave, there's essentially no way.

It's ridiculous. Where this comes in is that there's basically a higher standard. You're right. Bereavement leave is separate from injury. The reason that it has been hard to replace Loop is that there's a higher standard for replacing somebody for injury in the postseason because they essentially know that once you use your starter

in game five, you're not going to use him again. And so you could fake something to replace him and then carry an extra person. So you would de facto be carrying 26 while the other team is only carrying 25. Yeah, right. But bereavement, yeah, you're not going to fake. You can't fake sad. No, probably not.

I don't think so. Yeah, okay. Anyway, so David Price is pitching. That's a good thing for the Blue Jays, right? Sure. Marcus Stroman will pitch on full rest. That's a good thing for the Blue Jays. And, you know, the Royals have kind of a scary two days.

The Blue Jays are favored in both of these individual games probably. No. No, they are not. Both of these individual games probably. No. No, they are not. With the home field and with – they might be if you had a system that adjusted for Quato's last month and a half more than we do. But with Quato being Quato and the Royals being home field, it's like 50.4% to the Royals in game seven. It's like 50.4% to the Royals in Game 7.

I'm guessing that for actual Royals fans, they would treat that as about 30% right now. Yeah, probably. I mean, I don't know. I'm not sure what the odds would be if you actually went out into the marketplace and tried to bet on this. But 29% does seem low. Although, for everybody who doesn't trust Johnny Cueto, like 70% of those people don't trust David Price either. Yeah, that's true. But, yeah, I mean, you could convince me that it's closer to 40 for the Blue Jays right now.

It's close. It's a surprisingly close series for the number one seed going home with a two games to one matchup and their one and two starters pitching. It's surprisingly close. Yeah. Well, it's nice that one of these series is closer. We would have several days with no baseball. About to have several months with no baseball.

Don't have to think about that yet. Okay. One more question. What would you do with Kyle Schwarber? question what would you do with kyle schwarber uh i wrote about that today because it was a strange sight to see someone look so in command in the batter's box in one aspect of baseball and so out of his depth in another and that he looked awful all series in left field so i wrote about what could be done with him how many games has he played in his career? He has started 38 in the majors.

Yeah. And in the minors, do you have the answer off the top of your head? No, but not many because he only played about a season's worth of games in the minors period, and most of them were as a catcher. He did play outfield occasionally in college but yeah not that much 36 in the minors so he's essentially got 80 games in the outfield golly that's right on the border if it were like 35 games i'd say oh well you just work him out all all off season and uh he'll come to spring and he'll be a below average

but not disastrous left fielder. But 80 is enough that you can't necessarily project any more growth from there. It could happen or it could not happen. I'd keep him at left and have him catch two days a week. I'd do Gattis on him, basically. Yeah, I think that's what they will do. Did you mention Gattis? Hang on, I'm going to check your thing. I did not mention Gattis.

Really? How could you not mention Gattis? I probably should have mentioned Gattis. But I think that's what they'll do because, I don't know, I think he could catch conceivably. I don't think he'd be a great catcher, but I think he could catch if they didn't have Montero and they both hit from the same side of the plate and the Cubs have a pretty good catching prospect who's close and hits from the other side of the plate. Wait, the Cubs have a prospect?

Yeah. And so I think they'll leave him in left field because he wasn't actually that bad. Like this was the worst time for him to be his worst possible self in left field. I don't know whether it was just small sample or playoff jitters or what, but he was not that embarrassingly bad all year. He was okay. He was good enough for someone who hits as well as he does. So I expect that they will continue to work with him and put him out there and hope he gets a little bit better. And even if he's a little bit bad, that's fine. A little bit bad is fine if you hit like Kosh Warbur, but he was a disaster in that series. Yeah, I agree. Okay. All right. So that's it for this week.

We'll do some sort of World Series preview, I imagine, on Monday. And you can send us emails at podcast at baseballperspectives.com. You can join our Facebook group at facebook.com slash groups slash effectively wild and rate and review and subscribe to the show on iTunes so that you know when there's a new one. And you can support our sponsor, The Play Index, by going to baseballreference.com, using the coupon code BP, and getting the discounted price of $30 on a one-year subscription. Have a nice weekend. We'll be back next week. you