Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 76: The Free Agents the Internet Can’t Agree On

Episode Date: November 5, 2012

Ben and Sam discuss the discrepancies between lists of the top free agents this offseason.

We need a new format. We should shut down and retool. Okay, I will say episode 76. Episode 76 of Effectively Wild, blah, blah, blah, blah. It's Monday, November 5th. Ben, we are going to be kind of embarking on a slightly different format now with the off-season, that's correct? Yes, after much discussion, We have arrived. We have arrived. We have decided that we will continue to do this podcast daily rather than cutting back to three or so episodes a week to accommodate the slightly different baseball schedule. We will continue doing it daily, but rather than having two topics a day, we are going to generally have only one topic a day. We are going to generally have only one topic a day. I believe Wednesdays we are likely to have an all-email episode, so get your questions in. At podcast at baseballperspectives.com, which I've forgotten to remind people about the last couple episodes, but that is where you can email us.

And on Fridays we will be back with our supersized two-topic episodes. So we'll see how that goes. We might change as early as tomorrow. You will be advised if that's the case. So today, I want to talk, Ben, about top 50 free agent lists. They are all the rage these days. Yes. Top 50 free agent lists. They are all the rage these days.

RJ Anderson did one for us. And Keith Law did one for ESPN. And MLB Trade Rumors did one for MLB Trade Rumors. And so what I want to bring up is the sort of outliers, the players who did not form consensus. I think that generally these lists resemble each other in a lot of ways, but there are exceptions. There are players who one of us liked much more, I should say one of these list makers liked a lot more, or that one of these list makers liked a lot less. And I just wanted to talk briefly about some of these players and see why we think that there's a broad disagreement and what we personally feel about these players. How do you feel about that? I like that. All right great so Keith Law had Mariano Rivera 12th overall RJ had him 31st and and MLB trade rumors had him 39th. That's, I believe, the biggest gap

of any player, 39th to 12th. And I personally, I mean, I can certainly see the reason for skepticism about Mariano Rivera because he's a thousand years old and missed a season. Um, and even if he were healthy, he would still be a reliever. Who's going to pitch 55 to 65 innings. Great. Uh, best case. Um, but on the other hand, uh, he has, uh, basically never thrown a bad inning, um, you know, up to his, his injury. Um, and so, I mean, I, I, I sort of, um, I think I would tend to agree with Keith that, um, he is still probably on an inning by inning basis, the pitcher that, um, the relief pitcher on the market that I would most want. Uh, how do you feel about Mariano Rivera?

Uh, I would probably be closer to the, the RJ MLB trade rumors, I guess. closer to the RJ MLB trade rumors. I guess, I mean, I guess if you would rank any reliever 12th, um, I mean, maybe some people wouldn't do that. I don't know that I would, uh, especially when it's Rivera and at his age, I mean, he used to be a guy who would throw 75, 80 innings now he's more of a 60 and and usually goes on the dl at some point for a while um so i don't know even though you're right he has been the most dependable and the best reliever possibly ever on an inning by inning basis uh i don't think i could go that high especially i mean there will come a point at which what he does doesn't work anymore. I don't know what that point is. He doesn't throw quite as hard as he used to throw, but he throws certainly hard enough when he's just perfectly hitting corners constantly and has that same movement on his one cutter over and over.

So I don't know. I guess this is going to be his age 43 season and coming off a major injury, and I don't think I could put him that high. I didn't look to see which players Keith put higher or lower, really. I mean, I skimmed his list at some point. Well, I can tell you that he has him as the highest reliever. I think he generally does have his relievers a bit higher in general than the other two lists. But he has Rivera tops.

He has him ahead of Soriano, Rafael Soriano, who's 14th, whereas the other two rankings had Soriano higher. And MLB Trade Rumors had Soriano 17th, so that's whereas the other two rankings had Soriano higher. And MLB Trade Rumors had Soriano 17th, so that's not a huge discrepancy. We had Soriano 20th. So again, it's pretty clear that the consensus here is that Soriano is considerably better than Rivera. And I think that I would go, I mean, I'd be more likely to give Soriano a four-year deal, but I would never probably give Soriano a four-year deal either. I mean, I'd be more likely to give Soriano a four-year deal, but I would never probably give Soriano a four-year deal either. I think that if we're just talking about, I don't know, what each pitcher is likely to do during the life of his contract, I think I'd rather

have Rivera. For one year? Yeah. I mean I guess it's always hard to – it's hard to totally divorce the – yourself from the kind of expectations of what the contract is going to be. And so with somebody like Soriano, when you hear that he's asking for four years and $60 million and that sort of idea gets planted in your head, then it does kind of poison you a little bit and you start thinking, oh, well, I don't want that. But yeah, I mean I think that – I think Rivera is – I think Rivera is probably still a better pitcher than Soriano. I mean he certainly was up to the injury without really any – I think without any doubt about that. Yes, that's true. And Soriano has – I mean as relievers go, he is among the most consistent, I think. I mean, there's kind of a sense that he's had injury problems. And so you can't necessarily count on him to pitch a full inning, which obviously, or a full year, which is obviously the case for Rivera at this point in his career as well.

at this point in his career as well. But Soriano, except for his injury-plagued first season with the Yankees, has really been good just about every full season of his career. He hasn't really had one of those weird reliever years where you just have a bad year because you have a high BABIP or something. I don't know. I have a tough time taking a 43-year-old, even if it is the best reliever ever, over a 33-year-old or so coming off this long of an absence. I don't know.

Yeah, I'm not. I wasn't that wowed by Soriano this year, and I think that the goodness in his stats this year is a little bit shallow. I think that there was a sort of less dominant nature to his success this year than there had been through 2010. So I think that Soriano is probably pretty clearly on the decline. Yeah, I mean he used to strike out 10, 11, 12 guys per nine innings, something like that. And this year he struck out a batter per inning. So I don't know whether that was an AL East thing or not, but yes, he was not quite as dominant as he has been in prior seasons.

So Francisco Liriano, in this case, we are the outlier. Who knows where to put him? Yeah, one of the guys had him at 28, one had him at 35, and RJ had him 50th last on the list. And that one, Liriano feels like the kind of guy who his contract, I don't know, it seems like the sort of thing where, like let's say he signs for, like, I don't know, I'm just going to throw out a random number, like two years and $8 million or something. Everybody's going to be like, amazing deal.

What a great deal. Best deal. And if he signs for two years and like $8.05 million, everybody's going to be like, worst deal ever. It's going to be like really one of those things where there will be like kind of a snap decision made about whether it's too much or not and we'll all then focus on either the upside or the downside of it. But yeah, I mean Liriana was really just so bad. I mean Liriana was... We talked about

him at the trade deadline and didn't really know what to make of him then. We were talking about whether you could trust him or what you'd give up for him and I think we disagreed to some extent. And he was terrible after the trade deadline. Yes, he was. Somebody gave up something for him and he was garbage.

But then on the other hand, he does strike out a batter per inning. He has done that. He did that last year despite being horrible. I mean, I don't know. I think there's probably a – there's just something about wild lefties who strike batters out that makes them way too attractive for pitching coaches and totally despised by the average fan because they're so frustrating. And I don't know. I mean, I gosh, I mean, what starting pitchers does RJ have ranked above him? All of them. Okay, directly above him.

The ones most close above him, Scott Baker at 42, Carlos Villanueva, who wants to be a starter, at 41, Joe Blanton, 35, Joe Saunders, 34. Andy Pettit, 32. And Jeremy Guthrie, 27. So those are the guys in his second half of his. And obviously not one of those guys has anywhere near the upside that Liriano has.

But, you know, all of those guys could have started a postseason game for the Orioles this year, and I don't think Lariano could have. Yeah, I think, I don't know, I've always kind of been a Scott Baker fan, and I like Guthrie, and you just kind of trust Guthrie. Well, Guthrie, actually, I think Guthrie is another one. We had him 27, I think Keith Law had him 26, and MLB Trader Rumors had him 48. I think Keith Law had him 26 and MLB trade rumors had him 48. So almost the exact

opposite scenario. Yeah, I like Guthrie. I would definitely put him higher than 48. Considerably higher. Just because he'll pitch some innings and maybe they'll be kind of good innings. I mean, he's like a league average pitcher for his career

and eats some innings, and that's valuable. Yeah, I think if I were at the trade deadline, I would rather have Liriano because then you start thinking, well, who could get hot and be an ace in the postseason? And so there's really kind of an upside play there. If I'm signing a guy for many millions of dollars before the season, I mean, I do have an idea in mind that he's going to make 28 to 34 starts for me. And, you know, it's a long season. You sign these guys because it's a long season and you just don't want to get stuck with the 6th or 7th or 8th guy on your death chart

because you signed Francisco Liriano or, you know, Oliver Perez or Jonathan Sanchez or, you know, any of these wild lefties. Yeah, and Liriano over his last couple seasons, about 300 innings, has a 5.23 ERA in his walk, five guys per nine innings. Well, RJ's write-up actually kind of treats him as a reliever. I think that's interesting because I think he will – RJ convinced me a few months ago that he is going to have a – probably going to have a great second act as a shutdown reliever.

I just doubt he's looking for a contract that reflects as such right now. Right. Yeah. But maybe he's more valuable in that role, possibly. Yeah. Maybe he is. So not quite as big a discrepancy in numbers, but it sort of feels like a big discrepancy because of the way that kind of the free agent tiers work out. Torrey Hunter, we have him at 14th.

Somebody else, I think Keith had him at 20th, and MLB Trade Rumors had him at 20th and MLB trade rumors had him at 18th and I actually was arguing that to RJ that Torrey Hunter should be higher and I'm kind of surprised that that nobody's really looks at him as an attractive free agent and I get that you don't want to get locked into a four-year deal or anything with a 37-year-old. But I don't know. To me, there are a couple of factors here. One is that I think that everybody looks at the BABIP and says, oh, well, he's not going to hit 315 again. He's not going to be worth five or six wins again. But you don't pay for five or six wins. You're, you know, you're going to be paying him for basically two wins. And he's, he, in all five of his years with

the angels, he was at least that guy and almost always better than that guy. Not so long ago, how consistent he'd been and how little decline he's shown. Yeah. And the aging curve, I think kind of gets overhyped a little bit. I mean, you, And the aging curve I think kind of gets overhyped a little bit. I mean you – the aging curve is fairly reliable but it doesn't actually speed up as much as I think people think it does. And if you're only talking about one or two years, maybe even three years, the difference between a guy who's just passed that hump, a 30-year-old and a 37- is actually not that much i mean 30 year olds collapse yeah i think i remember there's a mate silver article where he says that the the biggest or the steepest decline comes from like 32 to 34 or so and then after that it's more gradual so he's well past that um i don't know if his steep decline period is just later

than the average one and he's about to hit it or something but well i mean he's certainly gonna decline it's just that i mean i guess the the the main thing is that i mean tori hunter has been um i guess depending on your your metric tori hunter has probably been considerably he's been better than bj upton for the Upton for the last year, for the last two years, for the last three years, for the last four years, and for the last five years. And I would rather have B.J. Upton, but, I mean, if you're talking about the deals that they're going to sign this year, I just don't know that Upton belongs at number two, which is where Keith has him,

and Torrey Hunter belongs at number 20. I think that probably for the next three years, they're just about a push. What kind of contract do you think he's looking for? Because I feel like if he would settle for a one-year deal, but if he would settle for a one-year deal, but if he would settle for a one or two-year deal or something, then I could see him generating a lot of interest as a short-term alternative to Swisher and Upton and Hamilton and all the other outfielders who'd be looking for long-term deals. I could certainly see people going for Hunter and paying him quite a lot for one year or

two years. Well, he didn't get a lot for one year or two years. Well, he didn't get a qualifying offer from the Angels. Yeah. So the bidding starts below that, below $13 million or whatever. And so my guess is that he's probably in line to get something like maybe $2,000 and $16,000. And truthfully, I would be perfectly content to give him, um, yeah, I would be content to give him more than that. And at that rate, I probably would be content to give him a third year as well. Uh, knowing that, you know, the third year might be painful, but

I think he's, I think he's a better player than that. I mean, to me, he's still a, to me, he's still a solid, uh, you know, two to four win player, uh, for the next year or two. And if you're getting him for 8 million or even 10 million that's just to mention all the intangibles and the tutoring to mention all the intangibles which um matter to some people yes uh and so let's see uh last one we talked about this guy as well but steven drew seems to be the biggest uh mystery uh besides maybe francisco liriano uh we had him 22nd keith had him 42nd and i uh totally accept the case for either of those i think i lean toward the the more pessimistic one but then there's that whole positional scarcity thing too and he's probably not going to kill you, but maybe he will.

Yeah, well, you wrote both sides, right? In the recent lineup card, you wrote about why he would be a bargain and why he would be a bust. And yeah, I guess it's easy to see either way. I guess I'm sort of surprised. Were you surprised that the A's didn't pick up his option? I was kind of surprised. I'm surprised by a lot of these guys who didn't get qualifying offers

because I am a big – I mean at least I accept the idea that there's almost no such thing as a bad one-year contract kind of thing, which I think Sheehan used to say or someone used to say. And one-year $13 million is just not that much money. It really isn't. I mean, I don't know how in the world Angel Pagan is not worth one year and $13 million. And he's not even going to accept it. I don't think Pagan would accept one year and $13 million.

So it seems to me there's not much risk. But even if he does, I mean mean he is a guy who is giving you four wins every year and right now a win is probably five or six million dollars it's it's shocks me and makes me think that i'm just wrong because i don't think all these teams are stupid but all we hear about is inflation and teams don't want to give the long-term contracts and then you have this chance to get you know all your gambling is a one-year $13 million deal. It seems weird to me. Does it seem weird to you?

It seems weird to me. Yeah, I didn't check to see. I don't know. I predicted which players would get qualifying offers, and I think I left Adam LaRoche off the list. He did get one. I think I got the others maybe. I don't know. I left Pagan off. I left Hunter off, I think, just because, I don't know, not that I didn't think

it would be smart or that I thought they wouldn't be worth it. I don't know. In Pagan's case, I guess it seemed like a big raise. And maybe they just wouldn't want to go that high on someone who's never been close to that high. But I could certainly see him getting a three-year deal for, I don't know, 10 million a year or something in that range. And I doubt he would have accepted that. And yeah, if he had, I don't think it would have been any kind of problem to have him on a one-year deal for that amount. I don't know. Maybe we are reading the market a little wrong. Maybe we were jumping the gun a little bit with all the inflation and the TV deals stuff. If you compare his last four years to Aaron Rowan's last four years before he signed with the Giants by Winnebub replacement models, they're almost identical.

I mean, they basically had the same four years. And Rowan got five years and 60 from the Giants. So maybe you'd say that they learned. He's also the same age. I guess he's one year older than Rowan was. So maybe you'd say that they learned. He's also the same age. I guess he's one year older than Rowan was. Maybe they're saving their money for a gigantic Marco Scudero contract. Yeah, maybe they are. I think, yeah, I don't know.

It's always hard to know. All right, so that was one topic, and it still took longer than i'm comfortable having this podcast let's wrap it up episode 76 is in the bag we'll talk to you tomorrow