Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 8: Screen Door

Episode Date: July 27, 2012

Sam and Ian talk about the major-league debut of the Mets’ Matt Harvey.

Welcome to Effectively Wild, the daily podcast from Baseball Perspectus. I'm here today with Ian Miller, who you know as Ian Miller, or as Ian the Vegan, or as half of Productive Outs, and a good friend to all of us, I'm sure. Hi, Ian. What's going on, Sam? Ben is away. He's in British Columbia, where I'm 90% sure he has mistakenly gone to celebrate the London Olympics. His internet connection has failed him. He'll be back for Monday's podcast, but he's not here today. Ian has graciously agreed to step in, and Ian is more interesting than Ben and I ever are,

so I think we're going to be just fine. Ian. I'm thrilled and flattered to have been asked. Well... Big fan of the show. First time in a long time. Thank you very much. All seven episodes, I imagine. Heck yeah.

So, do you have a topic that you'd like to talk about today? Well, I figure the top of mind topic for everybody right now has got to be this Matt Harvey kid, right? Oh, good. I think this might be the first time that we've had two hosts who have said the same topic, and so we can just focus all nine minutes on him, because that's what I was going to say as well. Did you see the start? I did not. Fortunately, I had band practice and stuff, but just looking at Twitter occasionally and looking at his line,

apparently it was incredible. It was incredible. 11 Ks versus three walks and five and a third and a couple of dongs. Yeah, it was incredible. It was very entertaining. I think that there were, I mean, you know, it's interesting. We watched these guys make their debuts with so much baggage in our minds already about what their strengths and what their weaknesses are. When he got drafted, the comp that he got thrown at him, at least from the Mets, was Mike Pelfrey. So I was expecting something like Mike Pelfrey today. He was the most un-Mike Pelfrey pitcher you could ever imagine. There was not one thing Mike Pelfrey liked about him.

So that's probably one good thing you can say about him. He got 18 swinging strikes, which is actually more than Mike Pelfrey has ever had in a start. That's amazing. It is amazing. Um, I saw the first, second, fifth and sixth innings. Um, and, uh, yeah, it was, it was, it was a fun outing. He struck out a lot of guys, and he got guys looking stupid, chasing things. He also had a pretty big strike zone for him today, and I think there were a lot of pitches that he got swinging strikes at that he can't count on most major league hitters swinging at.

Sure. They were clearly uncertain about what he was going to be doing. They were swinging at pitches that were way out of the zone and not exactly tempting type pitches either. We're talking fastballs at their head. But it was fun. Big league hitters will adjust. They don't have a book on the guy. They have tendencies, but there's probably not video

and extended scouting stuff. I'm looking at the game day highlights right now and his first career K against, I can't tell who that is, Gerardo Parra maybe. It almost looked like a forkball. He just buried it on the inner half and

looked really impressive. I mean, I don't see anybody adjusting to that unless they can learn to lay off it. No, the slider is going to be something. And I think that's the one thing you can't deny about him is the slider. The fastball, he hit 98, which is, again, I mean, you hear Mike Pelfrey. I mean, you hear Mike Pelfrey. I also read today that in one of the New York papers that he profiles as a number three starter. And I mean, I'm not here to argue that.

People who are smarter than me said that. But I mean, if a guy who throws 98 with that slider, I mean, it is really a really good slider. If he only profiles as a number three, then I don't know how to do this. Well, hasn't the knock on him consistently been fastball control? Like, he's got great stuff in the live arm,

but has no idea where it's going half the time? Yeah, pretty much. You know what he reminded me of? He actually kind of reminded me of a classic unrefined lefty. I mean, he was obviously throwing from the right side. But you know how lefties, like the frustrating Oli Perez, Jonathan Sanchez types, they're always leaving pitches up fastballs up, and he did that a ton. He really didn't have good control of his fastball. It's impressive that he was able to get 11 strikeouts with, I mean, I guess maybe he had better command of it at some points than others, but yeah, he was kind of wild.

Effectively wild, would you say? He was effective and he was kind of wild. Effectively wild, would you say? He was effective and he was wild. I don't know for sure that the wildness should be modified by the effect. They might be unrelated, is what I'm saying. But yeah, and he threw about four change-ups.

Three of them put in play and about maybe four or five curveballs. None of them sw in play and about maybe four or five curveballs none of them swung at that I saw so he's mostly a fastball slider guy and yeah he's gonna it's gonna come down to how much he controls the fastball sure

I mean I'm not prepared to say that it definitely had an effect on him but I imagine the Mets putting up two before he ever took the mound had to help a little bit. Yeah, and I think some generous calls early probably helped a little bit. Yeah, yeah.

On the other hand, he struck out Steven Drew on three swinging strikes, which is kind of just impressive. I don't know. I remember a piece in Prospectus a few years ago that was about the idea of a signature performance and whether it tells you something. If a guy strikes out 13 in a game, that was how they defined it. If a guy strikes out 13 in a game and that's all you know about him is he struck out 13 in one game, does that tell you something, that he's got that extra ability?

And I don't remember what the conclusion was. I do think I remember that the player that they were looking at was Kyle Davies, so maybe that's all we need to know. But, I mean, Harvey put up what you would probably consider a signature performance. He struck out 11 in his Major League debut. I did a play index search, and only 13 players since 2000 have struck out 11 in any of their first 10 games. And about half of them turned out to be aces. Strasburg's on there, Pryor's on there, David Price, Felix, Hugh Darvish, Josh Beckett.

And there's a couple guys who aren't, like David Percy. So I don't think this is conclusive, but it's suggestive. But none of those guys got two knocks in their debut, did they? No, Miss Strasburg might have, but... I thought I saw something, some Elias thing come across the wire where nobody had ever gotten 11 Ks and two hits in their big league debut, but I could be making that up. Oh, well, this start was pure Elias fodder. I mean, expect Jason Stark to milk this start for a good three or four days. Lots of trivia questions down

the road. Yeah, I think so. He was setting Mets rookie records in in the third and fourth inning. I think he struck out seven through three. So you can just imagine. Yeah, he retired 16 guys, 11 by way of a strikeout, which is pretty sweet. Yeah, and only one walk until the sixth when he really kind of lost command. Interesting, Okay. Well, it kind of, I mean, the signature, I don't know if it's a signature, it wasn't a signature performance by your definition, but it made me think of Matt Moore when he came up, not so much this year, but when he made his debut late in 2011.

And, you know, the kind of performances that he was able to put up and his couple three, four starts that he had. No, I'm actually looking at the line now. He had one start. Yeah, against the Yankees. Three total appearances. This was against the Yankees, right? Sounds right.

He had two. Yes, it was. Yeah, like the whole shebang was on the line. He struck out 11 in five innings or something, right? The site that I'm looking at is not sortable in that manner, but that's just immediately what it called to mind. That's sort of the most recent performance that it called to mind. Yeah, yeah.

So you're telling me that Tom Seaver's big league debut was not incredibly impressive? I'm telling you that there were graphics and chyrons and all those sorts of things today that were suggesting that Matt Harvey, yes, is in fact on his way to becoming a better pitcher than Tom Seaver. If he's not already there. Well, and not just Tom Seaver, but every Met pitcher ever.

So, like, we're talking Bobby Jones. That's the only Mets pitcher I can name throughout history. Ken Ciccova, man. Come on. Steve Traxell. Shall we just fill the rest of the time naming Mets pitchers? Well, there is a gentleman named Dwight Eugene Gooden that you appear to have forgotten about. I have.

The good doctor, as I call him. Bobby Jones wiped out my memory of all pre-Bobby Jones Mets pitchers. Well, yeah, as I think I've discussed with you and elsewhere, I happen to have the misfortune of growing up a Mets fan. So I have some sad memories. Why did I think Kent Akova was a Met? He just seems like he should have been on the Mets. Yeah, no, I know what you mean, which is weird.

I mean, it's weird that you can say... John Bois, our boys, would tell us that... He's the most Mets pitcher ever to not be on the Mets. Exactly. Yeah. You read my mind. Do you have any residual affection for the Mets, or is it a non-issue for you?

I do. I mean, there are very few teams that I simply cannot root for these days. I think even as a longtime Giants fan, I enjoy the Dodgers doing well because I enjoy watching baseball played at the very highest level. So how can you not like the things that Matt Kemp is doing? How can you not like to watch Kenley Jansen just carve guys up? That's amazing. And, you know, I grew up loathing the Yankees.

But how can you not love watching Curtis Granderson do the incredible stuff that he does that he shouldn't be able to do? I mean, and yeah, so I love the Mets. I still love Andres Torres and hope he gets his act together, though I fear that 2010 was the flukiest of all flukes. So yeah, I love all baseball. Yeah, I think that having access to MLB TV has made it easier to participate in individual performances. And I sort of know where you're coming from.

Yep. I mean, I even like the Angels. I support Riley's fandom of the Angels. And it took 10 years, but I can now enjoy the Angels doing well. 10 years ago, you would have only seen Matt Harvey highlights. You would have had no opportunity to have watched this game. Right. No, this stuff is changing incredibly quickly, and it's so awesome.

I just want to throw this out completely off topic. Ben would probably never do this and would not allow it. But I just watched what I think was the first episode of the franchise tonight yeah speaking of things that we never would have gotten access to 10 years ago, I mean 2 years ago you wouldn't be seeing the kind of stuff that we're seeing on the franchise and I found it absolutely fascinating the most compelling thing I've seen for reasons i can't explain maybe they've refined their process and stuff but i

found it more interesting than the giants one which as a nominal giants fan you wouldn't think i would have but i did um so if you've got the show time or access to it, I highly, highly recommend that show. It's fascinating. You get to see GMs on the phone making a trade, like finalizing a trade. You get to see Ozzy Guillen call the guy into the office and tell him he's been traded. It's stuff that just a short while ago we would have never, ever seen. Well, there it is, Ian's pick of the week. Absolutely. I'm glad to hear that, and I'll find a way to watch it.

Ian, thank you for helping me find a way to put on this podcast. Oh, it's my pleasure. And we'll probably do this again, because Ben is Mr. Unreliable. He's a globetrotter. He's always gallivanting. He is, yes. And he will occasionally sleep through our record time. But now I'm going to stop the show and I'm going to see whether any of this worked because the one thing Ben does do is record.

So we're going to see if I could do it. And hopefully you guys will all be hearing this on Friday morning. And thanks, Ian. And I hope everybody has a good weekend. Take care.