Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 887: Sabermetrics Meets the Mexican League

Episode Date: May 19, 2016

Ben and Sam talk to Tadeo Varela, sabermetric analyst for the Toros de Tijuana of the Mexican League, about the team’s pursuit of a statistical advantage.

Welcome to Tijuana, welcome to Tijuana, welcome to Tijuana, welcome to Tijuana, welcome to Tijuana, welcome to Tijuana, welcome to Tijuana, welcome to episode 887 of Effectively Wild, the daily podcast from Baseball Perspectives presented by the Play Index at BaseballReference.com. I am Ben Lindberg of FiveThirtyEight, joined by Sam Miller of Baseball Perspectives. Hello, Sam. Yo. We've got a guest today. Every now and then, every few hundred episodes, I like to take a little tour around the world of sabermetrics and talk to someone who

is interested in the things that we are interested in and does the sort of things that we do in a completely different environment. And of course, Sam and I sort of experienced that in the Pacific Association last season, but that was at least the same country. And so there were some constants. But we talked last summer in episode 700 to Anthony Reskin, who is a statistical analyst for the Sydney Blue Sox in the Australian Baseball League. And before that, episode 426, we talked to Alejandro Aldama, who is a sabermetrician in Cuba. And today we are talking to Tadeo Varela, who is a sabermetrician in the Mexican League.

And he works for the Toros de Tijuana. And we wanted to have him on today to tell us a little bit about the league and the team and what he does and maybe what he does that's the same as the sort of sabermetric work we're familiar with and maybe some things he does that are different. So hello, Tadeo. Thank you for coming on. Hi, guys. Thanks for the invitation. Yeah. So if you could help us set the scene a little bit, of course, the history of baseball in Mexico goes back a long way. The history of baseball in Mexico goes back a long way. The history of the Mexican League goes back a long way. But could you tell us a little bit about the popularity of

baseball in Mexico? How does it compare to other sports in the country? Well, the most popular sport in Mexico is the soccer. But in the north of Mexico, there are a lot of baseball fans. And here in the west coast, we have the La Liga Mexicana del Pacífico, the Pacific Mexican League. It's the winter league. And actually, it has the best attendance of the winter leagues in the Caribbean.

And there are a lot of fans of baseball. Yeah, the baseball in Mexico has been growing significantly the last 10 years. And the history of the Mexican league goes back many decades. And it's been common in the past for American players to play there and for players to go back and forth. So how has it changed lately? what is the talent level approximately of the mexican league right now and if you can tell us a little bit about the toros how long they've been around and what sort of success they have had in the league well the league is officially to play to play level but uh i think it's more like double a. We can talk a lot about the level league,

but like I said before, it has been growing a lot. The last year was approved a new rule that allowed the teams here in Mexico to see the Mexican players who were born in the United States. We call it pochos. So now, last year, only one pocho could be in the roster. But this year, all the pochos are treated like all the other Mexicans. So we have a lot of new players this year and the level of the league has been growing.

So you say that baseball is more popular in the north. Is the Mexican baseball fan also following American baseball leagues? Is American baseball interesting to Mexicans? Or is their love of baseball, is their fandom mostly concentrated on the Mexican leagues and the players that are playing in Mexico? That's a good question. Here in Tijuana, we are really close to the border. We're really close to San Diego.

So a lot of the people here who are fans of Toros are also fans of the Padres or the Dodgers. So here in Tijuana, yes, there are a lot of people who follow Major League Baseball games too. Is that an advantage for the Toros that Tijuana is so close to the border? I mean, is it easier to persuade American players to play for you than it would be to persuade them to play for a team that would mean more travel and a longer distance from the United States? Actually, yeah, because first of all, we are next to the border. We sell it to the foreign players we bring here.

And Tijuana is the city in Mexico who has made the most major league baseball players. So we have a little advantage there. We also are the team who has seen most of the pochos in last winter. And so it's a 16-team league, and it's 111 games in a season. And so the Toros are 23-17 right now, as we are speaking. That means they're in third place in the North Division, and it looks like they have the fifth best overall record. I don't know whether you can make a comparison. Is there anything about their identity,

whether it's the personality of the team or the fans or the city or their history of success? Is there anything that could let you compare them to a team in the United States that people listening to the show would be more familiar with? Well, that's a problem because actually the personality of Toros of the Tijuana is still in the process making. Toros of the Tijuana is team are really, really new. We had a single season in 2004,

but we came back in 2014. So we actually, this is our third season. So the team has changed a lot in these three years. But we can compare it, I think, with like Chicago Cubs. Yeah.

That's a good comparison. Yeah. And I will tell you why. Because first of all, this is the most elementary team. We are the team that use the most statistics. And here in Tijuana, there are a lot of baseball fans. We have a huge market. And we are taking advantage of that. So what is your role in the front office? And bigger than that, how big is your front office?

How many people are involved in putting the team together and making decisions? I am exactly a cyber metric analysis. I am exactly a cybermetric analysis. My job is to support everyone in the statistical side of the game? And what books or websites did you read? And what skills did you acquire? Well, there is a little secret. I am not Mexican. I am from Venezuela. Okay. And in Venezuela, we play a lot of baseball. I was taken to the ballpark since I was a baby. So I grew with this love to the game of baseball. And I have to admit it, I was like something nerdy. So I like math, I like numbers.

So when I started reading about these sovereign metrics, it was love at first sight. I started reading and reading and reading. I discovered PayPal Reference. I discovered Fangraphs. I started reading about cybermetrics in Venezuela. So this new team needs a person in this position. And sadly, there are only a few people

who work with this in latin america so they gave me the opportunity and here i am we ran a piece on bp about some guys who basically put together a play index for venezuelan baseball octavio hernandez who's a sports writer down there wrote the piece and um the site is at purapelota.com. And I was just wondering, do you know, are you familiar with that? Is that any of your background is, I guess what I'm asking is, is Venezuela more kind of advanced

in this kind of stuff? Yeah, it's more advanced than any other Latin American country in this cybermetrics. Octavio is a really good friend of mine and Pura Pelota was made by Jose Montilla. I also know him. And yeah, we have a really good site to look at the winter, our winter league statistics.

And we use it a lot. Yeah, it's our own table for practice. Is there anything about Venezuelan baseball that makes it a good place for sabermetrics or is it just that a few of these guys jose and and octavio and you and a couple maybe a couple of others just happen to uh know each other and and spread the idea well i think is because venez Venezuela is the only one South America country with the baseball being the most popular sport. So a lot of people grow their love in the baseball game. We don't actually don't play soccer. And there are a lot of people who love statistics

by comparison in the Dominican Republic. There are a lot of people who love statistics by comparison in the Dominican Republic. There are a lot of Babel fans, but they are not such lovers of statistics. They are more scouts there. And are you the only person doing what you do in the Mexican League? Or are there other teams that have someone doing something similar? In my knowledge, I am the only one doing this here. There are a few teams that are interested in statistics, but not as deeply as we use it here in Tijuana. And how did that happen?

Did they approach you and say, come work for us? We want someone working on statistics? Or did you contact them and offer your services? Yeah, I called them and I offered my services. After a few emails, they see my work and here I am. So what did you do to convince them that they should hire you? What sort of work did you show them to say I i am worth employing oh wow that's a good question i showed them everything everything i could do i showed them wawa i showed them fip i showed them vapip and i and i showed them how that works i showed them spray charts i showed them

a lot of statistics and i the good thing is that here in Tijuana, the owners of the team are really open-minded. They are real businessmen who can appreciate the new tools to analyze baseball. And did you talk about other teams in Major League Baseball and say that they have had success doing this sort of thing? Did you mention anyone specific and say that, you know, we have to do the same thing that this team or that team is doing? Yeah, exactly. In Marseille, you are so advanced in these things, in mathematics. And in Latin America, we are falling behind. So we need all the tools we can get. So what information is available in the Mexican League and what is missing?

Or what is the number one thing that you wish that you had data-wise in the league? Thanks to Fangraphs and Babel Reference, we have the most basic cybermetrics statistics. Thanks to MLBfarm.com and Darren Willman, we have available the spray charts. Toro de Tijuana is probably the team that uses the defensive chief the most. We're very proud of that. And thanks to tangotiger.com and TomTango,

we also are able to calculate the room expectancy matrix. So this year we are working with room expectancy 24. We're working with wing expectancy. And basically we are all we can get. We work with that. And what is your manager like and what does he think about this? Because, of course, that can often be the problem if the manager is not interested in this sort of thing. And Sam and I had that problem sometimes last summer that we wrote about in our book.

So is your manager very open to these ideas also and interested in learning more? Well, that's the most important that the manager can understand our work my manager is Luis Ojo we have he's old school really he he's also Venezuelan I talked to him I showed him my work he doesn't need to believe everything. He only needs to believe what is aptly in the field, which is, in this case, the defensive chief team. And we uplift and have been a lot of success for us, have been working. And has the biggest advantage been inside the league with players who are already there, whether it's shifting or pitching to players or whatever it is?

Or has it been in acquiring players? Do you spend a lot of time trying to figure out how players from foreign leagues would do in the Mexican league and then try to target those players? Is that a big part of your work? Well, I spend most of my work searching players in the foreign leagues because here in Mexico there they are like culture of don't do many trades here in Mexico the pitcher are very very valued and basically anything trade pitcher so it's hard to find good Mexican players in the market so we that, but we focus on the American, Dominican, Venezuelan players who we can bring to play here. Have you ever had, I feel like maybe an underrated tension between a front office and the manager in this kind of a situation is when you disagree

about a player who needs to be cut or who needs to play. Have you ever had instances where you evaluated a player much differently than your manager and where that was a source of either tension or compromise? It happens all the time but the secret is communication. The question is that the players who are in our roster is not my final word and it's also not the final word of the manager. For that we have a sport director who is the main in charge of taking that decision but we all have our opinion and we have in Tijuana we have worked very well in that sharing opinions and making a common statement.

And what is your job like from day to day? Do you work with the team every day? Are you always at the ballpark? Are you meeting with the manager before the game? Are you sending emails often with advice or scouting information? Or, you know, what is your typical day at the office like? My typical day, I always have to write down the game. I always am recording every play in the game. Before the game, I am on the dugouts talking to the manager or maybe talking to the sport director and talking who player can be on the team,

who doesn't have to be anymore. I don't travel with the team when they are on the road. I send them emails. But when they are here in Tijuana, we always talk in person. And do any of the players talk to you? Are they interested in the information that you have? Or do you mostly just talk to you are they interested in the information that you have or do you mostly just talk to luis and and the sport director actually i don't i don't talk to the to the

players i mean i i i talk to them to say hi and yeah how are you but i don't show them my work i have to respect the command line so if there's any problem with any player, I communicate to the manager or to the batting coach, the pitching coach, the infield coach, and they talk to the player. I see. And I don't know how profitable teams are in the league, but is there any potential to get some sort of tracking technology in the future there are any teams interested in getting systems like pitch fx or trackman installed in the league well i would love to but uh suddenly i i would have to say we we are a few years from from that i would love to have pitch effects but i think in maybe 10 years maybe is that possible first of all we have we need that all the teams use our metrics have a sub-metric analyst start the the interest in the new analysis so they can afford the all the new system they have in my only baseball. So we have really stepped back there in that point.

And the Toros are having their best season yet. They were around 500 record the last couple seasons and now they're doing better than that. Is there anything in particular that has caused that improvement? Is there any way in which you think that analysis has given them an advantage that is helping them improve and be better than other teams? Like I say, the team has changed a lot in these three years. Our roster is not the same roster that the last year or the year before. Here in Tijuana, we bring a lot of foreign players. We have, I think, in my opinion, the best foreign players of the league

that have helped us a lot. And yeah, my work in the projection of the players have helped us in the trade market. And what percentage of the team is foreign players or what percentage of all players in the league approximately? Only six players of your roster can be foreign. I see. That's a rule of the league.

But now that the sort of unofficial agreement that used to prevent teams in the Mexican league from signing Mexican-born players who had played for Major League Baseball organizations first. Now that that rule is going away or has gone away, has that made it easier to acquire talent? Yes and no. There was a draft last winter, but there were only a few players. Actually, Toros didn't have a chance to pick any one of them. Like I said before, the Pochos are the ones who are making the difference. The

Mexican players who were born in the United States are now available to play here with any limitations. We have seen a lot of them. And when you have a successful player, how much do you worry that you will lose that player? How much do you worry that another team from a different league

will try to sign that player away from you? Is that something that happens often? Not really. Here in the leagues, they cannot sign any of our players. Sometimes our players sign with the Japanese league. So they leave. That's a real danger. But we generally try to pick players who we know they have no more chance,

a real chance to play in Marley baseball or the Japanese baseball. chance, a real chance to play in Marley baseball or the Japanese baseball. Yeah. We try to look players who we know they can play a lot here in Mexico. And what major league teams are the most aggressive about scouting in Mexico? Actually, I could not say, uh, we have, uh, sell players to race Tampa race. We also have players to Chicago cops, to Padres of San Diego. But actually, I couldn't say which team have more couch here in Mexico. And I'm really curious about the altitude difference between the teams in Mexico,

because you guys are almost at sea level. in Mexico because you guys are almost at sea level and then Mexico City is above 7,000 feet which is higher than Denver so you know all the concerns about Coors Field and the Rockies theoretically apply to Mexico City also so do you do a lot of park adjustments and trying to figure out how much was the the city that a player was playing in as opposed to the player himself? Actually, yeah, we work with a lot of power factor. It's actually well known that the South Division of the league have a lot of pitching because of that.

And the North Division have more batting because of the height of the teams. That's interesting because Rob Manfred, the commissioner of Major League Baseball, recently said that he would consider adding a team in Mexico City. And so I'm curious about the challenges just because it's been so hard for the Rockies to put a good team together. And it seems like at least part of that is that the conditions there are so different from the other cities in the league. And so if you added a team in Mexico City, or has that been a big challenge for teams in the Mexican League? And do you think that would be a big challenge if a major league team were added?

Well, actually, I think that if a minor league baseball team is placed in Mexico City, the least of the problem will be the height. I think there are more concerns about the economy of the team and other issues like travel, decency, and security. I personally think that the commissioner, when he came here and say that, he said it would be good with the Mexican people. But I think that's a real possibility is really, really far from now. And lastly, do you have any sort of general advice for people who are interested in doing what you do in a league where it's not common for people to do that, you know, whether it's trying to get a job and trying to convince a team that they need a

person working on statistics or making the case that you can really add some value or talking to the manager or whatever it is. What have you learned? What would your advice be to people who are trying to spread Sabermetrics into new areas of the world? My advice is that read a lot and write also a lot. You can convince a team to hire you if you can show them with math that your job will be helpful to the achievement of winning that in the end is that what everything wants everything wants is to win more games so the cyber metric is very useful in that goal and you can show them the most cyber metric statistics um if you are really polite you have good communication and you show them you work with maths, you can convince them that they need sabermetrics. Sabermetrics, if you don't have sabermetrics, you are going to lose competitiveness.

And has there been anyone who has been skeptical about your role there? I mean, is there anyone who thought it was a bad idea to hire a sabermetrician or that you wouldn't be able to help the team? Have you faced any difficulty in that respect? A lot of people, a lot of people. Sadly, there are a lot of people who don't want sabermetrics and it's because they don't understand it. Before I started talking to Toros, I talked with a lot of teams here in Mexico, in Venezuela, in Dominicana, and Toros was the first team who gave me the chance to prove my value.

So yeah, there are a lot of people who still don't convince themselves with these cybermetrics. Okay, the real last question. For the rest of this season, or say in the next year, is there a specific goal that you have? Something that you're working on or some sort of information that you hope to make available to the team that hasn't been available thus far or just something that you're trying to do that you haven't been able to do yet? Well, with the team, our goal is winning the championship. Last year, we made it a winning team that takes a lot of effort. So this year we are a lot better and we think we can really, really challenge for that championship. It's our main focus right now.

But personally, I try to seek every statistic that is available. I try to apply it here in the leagues. I try to find every page that has MinoLeague statistics and see if they are available for the Mexican leagues. Most of the time they are and so they have helped me a lot in this job. But there is still a lot to find and to apply to to these leagues i hope that in five or ten years from now we could use pitch effects that will expand into a whole new level our work and it will be great for the league. Okay, so can you tell people how they

can follow the Toros, whether it's just the results or watching the games or listening to the games? What's the best way for people to follow the team and also to follow you? Okay, you can follow Toros de Tijuana on Facebook and

Instagram and Twitter. You can follow me at Tadeo Varela on Twitter. And I also write in Cybermetricup.com. It's Cybermetrics with an O to make it Spanish. I usually write there all the things that I apply in the Latin American leagues. Okay. And is there any way to watch or listen to the games just on the website or anywhere else?

In the internet you can see on the page of internet tv.com but you need to pay to have the subscription. I think you can listen the games on the page of Toro de Tijuana, and you can follow the game with the game day in the page of the Mino League Baseball. Okay, well thank you very much. It was great talking to you and I appreciate you putting up with our English and giving us the time. So thank you very much. And we wish you the best of luck. Thank you. Thank you. And thank you for the opportunity. It's always great to talk about cybernetics and our jobs.

All right. So that is it for today. Thanks to Tadeo. On some of my favorite TV shows, The O.C. and Terriers, terrible things happen when characters go to Tijuana. But I thought our Tijuana episode went well. You can support the podcast on Patreon by going to patreon.com slash effectively wild. We are really grateful for the support. I think in most cases, Patreon support goes down over time because people contribute for a month or two and then they cancel. But your Patreon support has actually increased over the few months that we've been doing it. So thank you very much. Today's five Patreon supporters are Alex Friedland,

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