Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast - Effectively Wild Episode 923: The Jerry Dipoto Report Card

Episode Date: July 12, 2016

Ben and Sam talk to Meg Rowley about how Jerry Dipoto’s flurry of offseason moves for the Mariners worked out over the first half of the season.

Sometimes it feels as though I have a key But every time I try it, it won't turn for me Seattle You've got two loves, Ray And we both love the rain And we both love the rain Good morning and welcome to episode 923 of Effectively Wild, the daily podcast from Baseball Perspectives, brought to you by The Play Index at Baseball Reference

and our Patreon supporters. I'm Sam Miller, along with Ben Lindberg of FiveThirtyEight. Hey, Ben. Hello. And a Patreon supporters. I'm Sam Miller along with Ben Lindberg of FiveThirtyEight. Hey, Ben. Hello. And a special guest. Today we have as our special guest Meg Rowley of Baseball Perspectives. Hi, Meg. Hello.

And she's here because we're going to be talking about Jerry DePoto and his offseason. And as most people will recall, did anybody win the offseason? There wasn't really a win the offseason last offseason, was there? There wasn't a... The Cubs won the offseason. Oh, that's right. The Cubs did win the offseason. That's true. But Jerry DiPoto was the most active. He was being sort of compared to A.J. Preller from the year before for sheer volume of moves, but they were not nearly the same kind of moves. A.J. Preller's moves were like, you know, basically could have been based on whose cards were worth the most in Beckett Baseball Card Monthly. Whereas DePoto's were all like kind of moving players because they didn't seem to, I don't know, they were sort of more role players and building a full team instead of getting, you know, a great 3-4-5.

Anyway, I wanted to go over those, again, go over that offseason again, and Meg is here to help us. But before we do that, I should just make the point that I know that I've been probably, I don't know, I never run out of apologies for Jerry DePoto. Like, I'm a big fan. I like him. And it's gotten, I mean, I do kind of feel like maybe it's gotten to the point where I think of DePoto as like an extremely toolsy GM. Like he's got all the tools, right? Like he's like a, like everybody likes him and he's high energy and he's into the stat

head stuff and he does his own spreadsheets and he's also a former player and he, you know, makes good hires and he gives good quotes and he's got all these great tools. Like if you were building a GM based on tools, he would be it. But the results really have not been there. He had a run in Anaheim that coincides with the biggest waste of a player's prime in recent history. And he isn't there anymore, and now he has the the Mariners and they're sort of falling from the race. So, yeah, so that's the basis. I will probably say good things about Jerry DePoto,

but I think that it's probably important that I start interrogating my own feelings about him. So let's go. Should we go? Yeah. All right. So on September 28th, Jerry DePoto was hired. And on October 23rd, he hired Scott Service to be his manager. Scott Service, no managerial experience, a front office guy, also former player, also former backup catcher.

So he had the necessary background in the backup catcher part of his career, but not a manager. So I couldn't tell you a single thing about how Scott service has been as a manager this year, what his style is like, whether there's generally good reviews or bad, uh, whether he's distinguished himself in any way. So Meg, tell me about Scott service as a manager. Well, I think, I mean, part of this is always like, how much do we think what the manager does really matters that much? I think in the beginning he was making some sort of weird choices. The bullpen management, I think, is what has been most, has come under the greatest fire. That's probably true for every manager everywhere. But he's been fine. I think from a lineup perspective,

people have generally been pleased he's not doing that thing that Lloyd did the year before where he would ignore Logan Morrison's terrible, terrible splits and put him in against a guy because he had gone, you know, four for five against him in his career and we would all sort of groan and be sad. And he's not doing that stuff. But the bullpen management's been a little strange. You know, we thought that these guys were going to come in and with their stat headways sort of be flexible and be willing to manage the bullpen to the skills they thought they had and be a little bit more creative. And they've been pretty set in their roles. And that's led to guys like Joel Peralta pitching, well, he's not with the Mariners

anymore, but when he was pitching really high leverage innings and giving up home runs and then losing ballgames for the Mariners. And now we have, you know, Joaquin Benoit, who has been pretty shaky this year, I think to everyone's great disappointment. So it, it hasn't been disastrous by any means. And I think that he's certainly, you know, he's still learning. He's new to this, but it hasn't been quite as smooth as I think anyone was hoping. And given all of the talk there was in the off season about how, you know, analytics minded they were going to be, they still haven't really done as much to be, you know, new or creative or defy set bullpen rules as we were expecting. So I think

jury's still out, but it's not great. Have there been any embarrassments or any scandals or controversies? No, not really. I mean, he does seem, I'll say this, like the staff that they've assembled seems to connect really, really well with the players. And if we were going to say anything positive, I think it would be that the culture of that clubhouse seems to have turned around pretty dramatically. You know, we didn't hear about any of the big blowups at the time, but from what we've heard after the fact, that wasn't a great

clubhouse to be in last year. And, you know, these guys seem to all be rowing in the same direction and, um, they've been pretty successful, at least from an outsider's perspective and getting the guys to buy into some of the advanced stat stuff. I think the addition of Maniacta has really helped in that regard. So there hasn't been the feel is good and the players seem to like him and all of those, you know, players are having a good time. Things we like to think about with managers are there, but some of the decisions have been sort of head scratchy. And have you noticed any or have there been articles or anything of the sort about improved communication between the GM and the manager's perch? Because that really seems like the most sort of notable

thing about his hiring is that rather than hiring a guy that he thought probably he'd work well with or that he thought probably had a similar philosophy to him, Jared Abolo hired his friend, like the guy he's been working alongside, and was like, well, you know, it sort of seemed like it might have, especially if it had been wildly successful, it might have heralded in a sort of radical re-envisioning of how you hire your manager and what that relationship is between the manager and his boss. Has it been notable? Has it been visible at all? I mean, they seem to say really nice things about one another. There doesn't seem to be any noticeable tension there.

And, you know, everyone in the organization, when they're talking to the beat guys, will talk about how much better the communication is across the board. They don't always talk about service and depoto in particular, but from, you know, the major league club on down, it's clear that there's at least unifying principles and that the player development philosophy has been radically reimagined and is much more consistent at every level. So I think the initial reaction is that the communication is really good. I wouldn't be surprised if they're making a point of not making them seem too best friendy, but they seem to get along pretty well and say nice things about one another, which for DePoto must be a nice departure.

Speaking of the player development philosophy, I think it was three days before he hired service, he hired Andy McKay, who was the Rockies' mental skills coach or peak performance coordinator, and that was kind of an even less conventional move. Have there been a lot of articles about how that has dramatically changed things or has improved the player pipeline they haven't talked about mckay that much publicly which um i'm not as surprised by given kind of

how he was brought in as like this mental skills guy and i don't know i think they kind of want to see results on the field before they start heralding that too much. But I mean, if wins were an indication, the system is certainly performing much better than it has in the last couple of years. And you're getting players like, you know, Tyler O'Neill was a participant in the futures game for the Mariners. And he has talked a lot about how, you know, they came in with this control the zone philosophy and they want to reduce strikeouts. And you look across their minor league system last year and you had crazy strikeout rates and just really poor plate discipline.

And that was sort of looking like it was going to torpedo the careers of a lot of guys. And a lot of that has started to turn around. And I think some of that credit certainly goes to McKay, but he's sort of puppety and behind the scenes, except when he tweets every now and again. What does he tweet? Oh, just that he's always so puppety and behind the scenes, except when he tweets every now and again. What does he tweet? Oh, just that he's always so proud of his guys when they do well. It's one of those. Yeah, but I mean, he seems to... One of those guys who's proud of his guys when they do well.

I hate those guys. I know. Those jerks. Last thing on service. If he Freaky Friday'd with Walt Weiss tomorrow, how long would it take before you noticed? Would you ever notice? I don't know.

I don't know. Yeah. Now I'm going to look at that every time I watch a Mariners game and wonder if they've switched. Yeah. I don't know. Can I get back to that? Yeah, sure. No.

Yeah, watch attentively for the next couple years, thinking of almost nothing else, and then give us an answer. All right, so then two weeks later, his first big player personnel move, he trades Danny Farquhar, Brad Miller, Logan Morrison for basically Nate Carnes. I guess there's two parts to every trade. One is how well the guy does coming back, and the other is how much you miss the guys that were let loose. At the time, how much did Farquhar, Miller, and Morrison seem like losses to you? Danny Farquhar had pitched terribly, and I hoped he would come back

because he just seems like kind of a weird, cool human being, but I wasn't particularly sad to not have him in the Mariners' bullpen anymore. I was really not sad to see Logan Morrison go. Again, as a player, he had been kind of disastrous for the Mariners bullpen anymore. Uh, I was really not sad to see Logan Morrison go again, as a player, he had been kind of disastrous for the Mariners in, in 2015 and just didn't really show like he was going to have, um, much improvement. And then Brad Miller's been this sort of weird, weird player for Mariners fans for a long time. He was heralded as like this guy who was going to help anchor us in the middle and we weren't going to ever have to worry about shortstop.

And then he proved to be pretty error prone and make weird throws. And the bat really didn't make up for that. So I wasn't terribly sad to see any of those guys go. I think I was probably the most nervous about Miller just from an insurance perspective, because it was clear that we were putting all of the eggs in Cattell Marte's basket. And, you know, he's a young guy and you never quite know how that's going to go. But all in all, I don't know. I wasn't particularly sad to see any of them go. And how happy have you been to have Carnes?

He is a guy who is not currently on the DL. So that's a point in his favor. But he also hasn't pitched very well. He also, though, does strike a lot of guys out, which will lead people to think that he's on the cusp for longer than he might actually be on the cusp. Does he feel like he's on the cusp? Well, he's not on the DL, but he is in the bullpen right now. So that is a partial answer to your question. I mean, he flashed well in the beginning.

And the first two times through the order, he always looks great. I mean, the fastball is really good. His curveball when it's on is kind of devastating and a really fun pitch to watch, but you know, like clockwork, the third time through the order, every time he'd fall apart, he'd start getting babbitt a little bit and then, you know, walk a guy and then give up a home run. And suddenly you're wondering what happened to the lead that you had. So he hadn't pitched particularly well over the last month. He was doing better in the bullpen. And I think their hope is that he'll kind of get sharpened up there, um, and come back to the

rotation. If, you know, Wade Miley continues to struggle or if the spot starts that they're giving to Mike Montgomery, aren't going, you know, the way they want to after the break, but I don't know. I'm glad to have him. I think pitching depth is always good. As you noted, But I don't know. I'm glad to have him. I think pitching depth is always good. As you noted, he's not on the DL and the rotation has been a disaster in that regard. I mean, the only guy who started the year as a starter who isn't Nate Carnes in the bullpen, who has not done any time on the disabled list is Iwakuma, who, you know, of course, we all thought would be the most injury prone to the lot. So, okay. So then I'll, I'll, I think maybe we'll circle around and just give a plus minus on all these at the end and see what his grade is or whatever the case may be. But, um, for now, rather than, uh, giving judgment, let's go to the next one. A week later, he traded, uh, some spare parts for Joaquin Benoit. Uh, Benoit was, uh, one of really, I mean, really one of the very few truly elite relievers in baseball over the previous, um, three years, really one of the very few truly elite relievers in baseball over the

previous three years, maybe even five years. And the most sort of notable thing about acquiring him was how quickly they said he wasn't going to close, which felt weird because he has closed in the past. And he certainly has been as good as most teams closers over recent, over the recent years. And the Mariners at the time didn't have a closer. Uh, and so it was kind of weird that they proactively, uh, ruled that out. Uh, but then, um, uh, lo and behold, he's been both injured and bad injured a little bit, right. And then also generally bad. And so is there any thing, uh, that like beyond well relievers, uh, that you can say about Joaquin Benoit being terrible? I mean, it's mostly well relievers. I think he's probably been, I don't want to speculate,

but I will irresponsibly in fact, speculate that he has probably been more hurt for longer than we knew. He was dinged up a little bit in spring training and then he went on the DL not long after the season started. So I think, you know, he might have some lingering stuff from that. Hopefully he'll be able to regain form, but he's like that really terrible reliever combination of bad home run prone and really slow between pitches right now. So he is not in, you know, endearing himself to the Mariners fan base by any means. Those innings are long and they feel long. So I hope he turns it around in the second half, but so far it's been a disappointment. If you were to, for no reason but cherry picking,

if you were to exclude 2014 from history, his walk rate would have gone up every year since 2010. And it is this year three and a half times what it was in 2010 and double what it was in 2012. Yeah, that feels right. I mean, it feels terrible, to be clear, but it feels right. Did DePoto say anything when he was building this bullpen about wanting guys with different looks?

That was one of the things that always fascinated me about his tenure in Anaheim when he seemed to want to collect one of every kind of reliever. Like he wanted a side armor from the right side and a side armor from the left side and an over the top guy and a submariner. And he just wanted everything because he seemed to believe, and maybe he had something to back this up, that when you would bring in someone and then bring in someone who looked completely different, it would disorient the batters. Did he do that more so than most teams do, do you think? I think he did. I think that it appears to be part of the plan, at least for the bullpen construction. The problem that he ran into with that is that you probably still need some guys who can throw pretty hard and he didn't have them because of injury for a while. So Tony Zick

was sort of the hardest throwing guy we had. He had a really good fastball and then he got hurt and went on the disabled list. And until they called up Edwin Diaz, they really didn't have that like devastating heater guy. So he collected a lot of different things, but then the differences sort of all merged together when some of the more traditional, um, reliever types got filtered out because of injuries. So then you just had this band of misfits. We were sort of wondering when the other shoe was going to drop and June ended up being that time. Right. All right. Uh, four days later, I think the first sort of trade that everybody kind of universally praised was a trading Tom Wilhelmsen, James Jones, and Patrick Kivlahan? Is that his name? Patrick? Patrick, okay. For Leonis Martin. And Martin was a poor hitter, but an elite defender, according to pretty much all metrics, when they acquired him. And this year, the metrics say he's okay.

And he still doesn't hit much. So I don't know how disappointing he is. I suppose in comparison to what they gave up, he doesn't really have to do much. Tom Wilhelmsen is back with the Mariners even after... So is Patrick Kibblehand. Well, there you go. That's a pretty good strategy. Yeah, they've essentially got Lienis Martin

and his elite arm in center field for James Jones. Ben, have I ever told the story on this podcast about my friend in the 1990 Leaf, John Ulrud? It sounds sort of familiar, but I don't know if it was on the podcast. So go ahead. This card had a crease right down the middle that you could only see from a certain angle. And so he traded it like 30 times and then as soon as he traded he'd be like well i never thought i'd get rid of that card because that crease and then the guy'd be all mad and go i'll give you something cheap if you want to and then he'd get it back it was like his it was like his golden goose uh all right uh so anyway uh martine good or bad at

baseball so i think good ish i mean I think as will happen when you're a fan of a team and you only see their defense on the broadcast, like I think his defense in centerfield has been pretty good or it feels like it's been pretty good, which probably is an indication that it's less good than I think. The arm is crazy. I mean, that much I will say. His arm is insane. And every now and again, a runner will forget about that and just look completely silly. And that part is fun, especially when you've had, well, for example, James Jones in center field as a Mariners fan. So, um, I think he's been, he's been disappointing of late.

He was really on a tear, um, before he went on the disabled list with a tight hamstring. He, uh, he was suddenly a power hitter, which he's never been before. He has 11 home runs on the year. So he was sort of rediscovering or discovering a new this great new swing. And he was making everyone feel good by saying that Edgar helped him find it. And then he went on the DL and he has given back all of those gains. He is still sort of in the leadoff spot, and the speed still plays, but it looked like it was going to be this sort of revelation,

this great, amazing trade, and I think on balance, it probably still swings in the Mariners' favor, but it hasn't looked as fun and shiny the last couple weeks as it did before he went on the disabled list. So fans of every team will at some point say, you know, talking about their team's prospects, you know, two or three years down the line, they'll go, well, you know, we've got, and then they'll name four players and they'll go, that's a pretty good core. We could win with a core like that. Is Martine good enough

to be in a core? He might be good enough for the Mariners to be in a core. I mean, if you look at the outfield prospects, well, if you look at any of the prospects in the Mariners system, I mean, that cupboard is pretty close to bare. So I think that he's, at least from a defensive perspective, if he continues to play like he is, he's at least good enough for the next couple of years until DePoto can sort of replant the farm. But no, I mean, the bat's never going to be elite, and at some point the speed will go, and then you're looking at a guy who has a really good arm

but probably isn't good enough for center field. But I think that's probably a ways down the road. And as I said, right now they got him for James Jones, so I think they'll roll with that. All right, so then three days later, no, seven days later, one week later, he goes and re-signs, well, for him re-signs, for the Mariners just signs, Chris Iannetta, who started out really hot, had a bunch of home runs,

and over the last 61 games has hit 206, 290, 328. It's like double the OPS of the 2015 mariners for what it's worth double the ops double probably sam it was really bad it was really really bad so uh so he's got a thing for chris ionetta does it feel like a um uh like an like an illness right now does it feel pathological well i mean it's so at least at the beginning of the year, it felt like it was better than, or it seemed better than, you know, forcing Mike Zanino to go through another tour of terror

at the major league level that he clearly wasn't ready for. I mean, I don't know. I think Ionetta is a perfectly fine placeholder. Hopefully the bat improves a little bit. It was good enough for a minute there. I think you have to think about how bad the catcher

situation was for the Mariners last year to truly appreciate how this can seem like an upgrade. I mean, I am a Mike Zanino apologist. His framing is wonderful. I will always have a weird affection for him, but he was a three pitch strikeout guy a lot of the time last year. And Chris Iannetta is not that. So if nothing else, he at least, you know, will work the count like a professional hitter would, but they've talked about how he definitely needs more days off. Um, Steve Clevenger, who was the backup is on the 60 day DL. I think at this point with a broken hand, um, he took a foul ball off his hand and now has like three screws in his hand, which sounds terrible. So I wouldn't be surprised if we see more of Mike Zanino in the second half just so that they can get someone competent from a defensive perspective up there and hope that the gains that he has made in AAA

kind of stick. But it's better than it was, which is an indication of how bad it was last year. But given what was available on the catcher market, it's probably fine. I will say it feels like the Mariners give up at least two stolen bases every game. I know it's not quite that bad, but they are not holding runners on, and Iannetta's arm is not a small part of that. Part of it is the pitchers that the Mariners have on staff, but it hasn't really cost them terribly yet, but at some point you imagine it'll come back and bite them he just he can't hold anyone on their pitchers don't help and at some point

it's gonna cost them probably against the astros if i had to hazard a guess i ended his framing has totally tanked as i'm sure that you know because i know you check framing stats more often than anyone and he was like the framing success story last season because he had always been terrible at it. And then he devoted himself to getting better at it. And he did. And he was good according to all the stats. And now he is the worst in the major leagues again. Yeah.

It's especially bad. I mean, I would need to do actual research into it to see how much it's affecting the staff. But he seems at least for me, as you said, as a person who pays attention to that and watches it a lot on broadcast, he's especially bad low in the zone, which when Felix wasn't on the DL was particularly frustrating. There are a lot of reasons that Felix was struggling in the first half. It's not just Ionetta's framing, but he has really struggled this year. And the one or two games that Zanino has actually been up this year, you can see the difference. And that's not always something that you can tell

when it comes to framing, but especially low in the zone, it's been not great. All right. So then nine days later, he trades Mark Trumbo for Steve Clevenger. You do need backup catchers. So I guess that's a clear win. Well, Jesus Sucre was broken. His leg was broken badly, so they did not have one. Trumbo is like the flip side of Ionetta, right? Whenever DePoto takes over a new team,

he trades Trumbo and signs Ionetta. Was there any feeling among non-Depotens in Seattle that Trumbo was actually good at baseball? So it was a weird thing last year because, I mean, the fielding was terrible. The fielding is still terrible. And it was obviously bad. But apart from the first month that he was on the Mariners, he actually was hitting pretty well. He did all right. I think the part of, no one thought he was good, but they thought he might be good enough for first base, right? He shouldn't be in left field or right field or anywhere in the outfield. But if you were allowed to just play first base, it would probably be fine. I think the part of this that

has frustrated Mariners fans is that it felt a lot like pure salary dump. And part of it, as you said, is just that DePoto doesn't seem to be particularly fond of Mark Trumbo. And I don't think we can fault him for not predicting that Trumbo would lead the majors in home runs. But it felt an awful lot like they were just trying to get out from under the $9 million that he was likely going to be due in arbitration, which, you know, is a decision that all teams make all the time, but it just didn't feel like it was motivated as much by the player as it was him being told he couldn't spend that money. Okay, so then the day after that, by the way, would Trumbo have a place? Trumbo, yeah, he would have a place on this team. Because the thing about Trumbo is that you, even if you love him, you still have to either have a place for him or

do something that you're likely to regret, which the Orioles have chosen to do. They've chosen to let him hold a glove, even though they know that there are days they're going to regret him. But the Mariners actually could have used it, and they had spots for him. All right, so then the next day they sign Nori Aoki, which I believe Ben probably named the move of the offseason. He's been

horrible. Yeah, you want that one back, Ben. No, I still believe we've got half a season left. 245, 323, 313. He does lead baseball in caught stealings with four stolen bases to his name. He's got four stolen bases

and he leads baseball in caught stealings. And he's been sub replacement. And so how many, I don't know, how many games will he play the rest of the way? Tearing it up in Tacoma. Probably more than anyone will want him to, sadly. We can talk about how active we think the Mariners will be at the deadline. I know you guys talked about that yesterday, but I don't know that they have a lot of better options for left fields. They've been trotting out, you know, Sean O'Malley and Daniel Robertson and, you know, dudes of that ilk. And I don't think that anyone wants to see them in full-time service sort of to relieve the Gutierrez and Seth Smith platoon.

So I think we probably will see him again. But, you know, they made a point of calling up Daniel Robertson and letting him start games that mattered for the team going into the break. And they left Norrie down there. So I don't know how – he might not be in the good graces of the organization right now. The Cots dealings, they're like really bad Cots dealings. They're not just you're out by a little bit. I don't know how he might not be in the good graces of the organization right now. The caught stealings, they're like really bad caught stealings. They're not just you're out by a little bit, you're out by like a foot and a half and you wonder what they ever saw kind of caught stealing. So it's been a rough go. Four days later, Rowanis Elias and Carson Smith for Wade Miley. Elias has done his part by basically

torching his entire career. And Carsonas has done his part by basically torching his entire career. And Carson Smith has done his part by getting injured almost immediately and hardly pitching at all. But Wade Miley has also been quite bad. He's got an ERA of about five and a half. Also, though, not on the DL. So is he bringing anything to this team? And did you, I remember thinking that it's rare for the best player in a trade to be the reliever, especially the non-closer reliever. But I remember thinking that it felt like it was selling very low on a guy who looked like, again, like one of the eight or nine best relievers in baseball. But there were also some bad indicators with Carson Smith's velocity and mechanics and things like that.

Was there a feeling that it wasn't as bad to trade him as maybe those generalists among us might have thought? I think it was definitely the most controversial trade that DiPoto made all offseason, probably the most controversial move he made all offseason. And there were a lot of people, you know, who were sort of close observers of the team who really didn't like it. I think they acknowledged that there was a real need on the team for starting pitching and that they were not going to go out and spend big money on any of the elite options that were available. So it sort of seemed like one of those things that they had to do something. it sort of seemed like one of those things that they had to do something. And, um, I think we kind of all hoped that Wade would do better in safe go rather

than having to pitch in Fenway and, you know, maybe like things would improve and it would be fine. And he's had a couple of starts that were good. He actually did do some time on the DL because he's a Mariner starter. Um, but he has not looked particularly sharp since he came back. He's a warm body, and I think he's still probably a fine back of the rotation guy sometimes,

but I would prefer it be someone else, and it might end up being Mike Montgomery. If the Mariners somehow make the playoffs, Miley is not starting a game, correct? I can't. Not unless something catastrophic happens. So I think if you trade anybody, any real ball player for a starter, and he can't start a postseason game for you, you lost the trade, I think. Yeah. All right. Two days later, trades some spare parts for Adam Lind,

who I watch baseball tonight for the home runs every night, and I don't think I've heard Adam Lind's name very often, so he must not be doing very well. You know, weirdly, he has like 13 home runs. Yeah, And I don't think I've heard Adam Lynn's name very often. So he must not be doing very well. You know, weirdly, he has like 13 home runs. My dumb joke. My dumb joke. I'm sorry. But you're not wrong that he hasn't been playing particularly well.

If that makes you feel better. I mean, he has. He has a 261 on base percentage. Yeah. Like his slash line is a disaster. He, I don't know. He's, he's fielding an okay for space. It's weird.

It's a weird thing because he has done so much better over the course of his career. And I don't mean like four years ago. I mean like last year. And the year before and the year before. Three straight really good years. Yeah. really good years. Yeah. So you would think, you know, that he, he seemed like such a good common sense, reasonable acquisition at the time, right? Like we knew that, that we needed a starting first baseman because Logan Morrison plays for Tampa now and he's done so well and,

you know, the power numbers are good. And I thought that that would be able to sort of shield him from some of the safe co-effect stuff. And it just hasn't been good. He's been hitting better of late. So the announcers for the team are doing that thing that announcers always do going into the all-star break where they say, you know, we think Adam Lynn's going to heat up in the second half, and he's ready to go on a tear. And I hope he does because it's been a real mess and he's not making much of a case to split playing time from Dejo Lee if his last month does not carry forward into the second half. Five days later, he signed Steve Ciszek because Joaquin

Benoit is nobody's idea of a closer. And Ciszek, let's see, he has an okay ERA for a closer. You know, a decent closer ERA, but not a great one. Saved his first nine games and then, apologies for going this saves and blown saves, but has blown five in the last two months. And even that, like it's hard to know how much that means. And so I will use what I consider better data. The other day when he was facing the Royals with like a one or two run, I think a one run lead in the ninth, the Mariners broadcasters just didn't seem that confident. Like when he came in, like they were talking

about the blown saves. And you don't normally expect that from the home team broadcast when the closer comes in to nail one down. So there was there's a feeling, it seems to me that Steve Ciszek is shaky. Yeah, I think that that sense, at least over the last month has been an accurate one. I mean, the problem that he has had is that he's been home run prone. And the Mariners have played a lot of one run games, um, this season generally, but in the last month or two in particular. And so it's proven to be pretty problematic that, um, he can't seem to not give up a home run. Um, I think that he is falling victim a little bit to that thing that all fan bases do, which is that hardly any of them actually like their closer and think that

he is worse than he is. But it'll definitely be something to watch. I think he's still an effective reliever, but if they can think maybe a little more creatively about his usage, I wouldn't necessarily hate seeing him in lower leverage situations. But I don't know who the better option is on this team right now, unless you want to press Edwin Diaz into the closer role, which seems like a pretty risky thing to do. So I don't know. He's better than 2015 Fernando Rodney. He's much worse than 2016 Fernando Rodney. So he's a closer. All right. Iwakuma, I don't even know how to assess Iwakuma. Another team signed him, literally signed him. And then he ended up a Mariner and it's like, well, okay. And they announced it at the Mariner's like staff Christmas party.

Like Jerry DiPoto came out at the Christmas party and announced to all the team employees that they had managed their way back into Hisashi Okuma. And it was sort of this great moment. And then he's had this very weird kind of up and down season. So, yeah, I think not quite knowing how to assess him is fair. He's definitely not been as sharp as he has been in prior years. You know, he was never going to overwhelm you with his fastball and he's just not been as careful or able to command the zone as we've seen from him in years past. So I don't, I don't quite know. He's also been really important to this pitching staff because he hasn't been on the DL. He's making all his starts and he's been one of the only guys in the last month who's been able to go deep into games. I mean, we've had as fans this experience of knowing that our starters that are probably or the team starters are not going to go that deep into the game and kuma manages to you know throw seven most of the time so i mean i'm glad he's here as a fan i'd rather see him than i don't

know more wade miley assuming everybody got assuming everybody was healthy if the mariners made the playoffs would you akuma start in the postseason or would it be hernandez paxton walker and maybe now montgomery or they would go out and trade for somebody? I think that he probably would get a start because I think that, you know, there's a reason that Mike Montgomery ended up in the bullpen to start the year. He certainly has looked, he looked sharper in the one start he got against the Royals, but I think Kuma would probably end up pitching one playoff game. It might not, it might be the one start he got against the Royals. But I think Kuma would probably end up pitching one playoff game. It might be the one you're the least confident about winning as a fan, but I think he probably would pitch one. All right. And then a whole month passes,

and then he makes the last big move of the offseason. He signs Deho Lee, who we talked about because he had all the home runs and none of the doubles, but surely he's a more well-rounded baseball player than that. What has the Dejo Lee experience been like? I haven't seen a fan base respond to a player, especially a part-time player like this, in Seattle in a very, very long time. He is beloved. You were right that he was just hitting only home runs. He now has four doubles.

We're very proud of him. He is the slowest baseball player. I have watched him wear a nurse uniform in years. There was a moment a couple of weeks ago where Manny Acta hilariously sent him home, and he was thrown out by about a foot and a half. But we all wanted it for him so badly. I'm willing to have Manny send him again because if he ever gets that, it's going to be the best thing that's ever happened. He's been, as a hitter, really solid. He doesn't have much of a split. There was concern early on that he

wasn't going to be able to handle the major league fastball. He's been doing great at that to the point that pitchers are starting to throw in more breaking stuff because he's been crushing fastballs. Um, he has fielded first base much better than I thought he would. I mean, he's not athletic by any means, but he's not embarrassing either. And he's one of those guys that has sort of endeared himself to the entire team. Robinson Cano is teaching him English. He's, he's a great, wonderful story. And if he keeps hitting home runs and hitting well, I think people will continue to respond to him. He's not walking much at all, which I think is concerning to people. And he's one of those guys where if he hits a single and you have two outs, you better hope that the hitters behind him are going

to be able to move them over a single at a time because there's no speed, but they do a big day. Ho Chan at safe. Go. He has a cheering section. He's probably the feel good signing of the off season. And he's been a pretty good hitter. Many, many day. Holy inspired t-shirts as well. Correct. So many, so many, a lot of puns, a lot of puns. All right. So let's tally it up. Give me just pass fail for each of these and we'll tally it at the end. Scott Service hired as manager. Can I say incomplete? Sure. But you can say incomplete at most one more time. Okay. Fair enough.

All right. Farquhar Miller Morrison for Carnes. Pass. Oh, wow. Really? Yeah. Interesting. What's Logan Morrison doing right now? Yeah, Brad Miller is a league average hitter.

That's shocking. Cannot field. All right. Fair parts for Joaquin Benoit. Fail right now. Okay. Wilhelmsen, et cetera, for Leonis Martin. Pass.

Sign Chris Iannetta. Pass. What? etc for leonis martin pass uh sign chris ayaneda pass what he's he's minus one and a half wins by baseball prospectus wins not runs catcher catcher was so bad it was so bad it was comically bad there are other teams that signed catchers though maybe not a ton of them no i mean like it's it we could have gotten what were the other options on the free agent catcher market they weren't they weren't that different than chris ionetta yeah uh probably not there i'm trying to think of anybody uh salt lamakia was available not many it's true not many matt weeders, he wasn't available. Yeah, not many. Alright, so fine. They could have traded for Buster Posey. I mean,

I would be the most obnoxious human being on Twitter if the Mariners had Buster Posey, so it's to everyone's benefit that they did not do that. I thought it was coming off two average seasons by PP stats, so... Well, we're not failing. We're not failing on process. We're failing on

success. Okay, purely on outcome. Okay. Purely on outcome. All right. Yeah. Because process, simply by being Jerry DePoto, he succeeded every day in my grading. All right. Trumbo for Clevenger. Fail. You breathed as though you had to think about that.

No. I have continued resentment that Mark Trumbo was ever a Mariner to begin with, so that's why. All right, sign Aoki. Fail. Carson Smith for Wade Miley. Incomplete. Acquire Adam Lind. I mean, fail for right now.

All right, sign Steve Ciszek. I'm going to say pass. And sign Deholey. Pass. You are very generous. You are a junior college teacher. I mean, I can switch some of them, but...

He's 5-4 with two incompletes. Jerry DiPoto, he won the offseason. I can't change Iannetta. I just can't. The idea of poor, sad, broken Mike Zanino getting full-time catcher duty again, it was not a tenable situation. It is a very Mariner's pass, but it is a pass. All right. There we go. Ben, how do you grade the grader?

I think Jack Zarensik's having a great year. He really is. I mean, like, you look at the Mariners, and they're a pretty good team because of a lot of Jack Zarensik moves. Like Montgomery was a Zarensik move, and Cano is killing, and Cruz is killing. I was talking about this with Dubuque we we were wondering we had we have to maybe look back with less anger because there are really good pieces here and some of them are on deals that are actually with the exception of Canoe not really stupid so maybe we were a little we were a little harsh maybe maybe maybe I did by the way skip over Nick Vincent and Joel Peralta I think those would be a wash. I skipped over

Evan Scribner. I like that he went and got Brad Mills and Efren Navarro because those are sort of like completely pointless angels from his tenure too. I just like GMs that acquire. To me, that shows the courage of your convictions.

He feels strongly about things. We'll give him that. Alright, that. Yeah. All right. That's all. Thanks, Meg. No problem. Thanks for having me.

Okay. So we will leave it there. You can find Meg's work at Baseball Perspectives, and you can also find her on Twitter at Meg Rowler. You can support our podcast on Patreon by going to patreon.com slash effectively wild. Today's five listeners who have already pledged their support are Nathan Mealy, Dan Irving, William Panara, Tom Dwyer, and Noah Way. Thank you. You can buy our book, The Only Rule Is It Has to Work, our wild experiment building a new kind of baseball team. Go to our website at

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through patreon we will be back then but it's still every single home run was Berman being like, maybe it'll go 500 feet. And it's like, maybe you shouldn't have a job anymore. We all have questions. Sorry, I just can't with him anymore. Feeling sassy, I guess. Let's talk about the Mariners then.