Endgame with Gita Wirjawan - Prof Iwan Jaya Azis: Mengendalikan Ekonomi Bukan Sekadar Menggeser Tiang Gawang

Episode Date: March 9, 2022

Suatu kebijakan ekonomi masih perlu ditopang oleh institusi, SDM dan modal sosial yang kuat untuk dapat berhasil menjawab tantangan global. Dr. Iwan Jaya Azis, ekonom dan profesor di Dyson School of Applied Economics Cornell University membedah berbagai pelajaran dari beberapa krisis keuangan, penyebab kesenjangan, hingga pandangannya mengenai mata uang kripto. #Endgame #GitaWirjawan #IwanJayaAzis Saksikan dalam versi video: https://endgame.id/iwanjayaazis Pre-Order merchandise resmi Endgame: https://wa.me/6282133365263 Info pendaftaran program Master of Public Policy di SGPP Indonesia: admissions.sgpp.ac.id [e-mail] https://wa.me/628111522504

The lesson is, is, just a lot of a majoraughal-a-majoubaugh, because if you're going to be a new-oombed not even international organizations like AMF, it's a brandy to mutate This is N-game Hello, my friends, I've often asked in social media. I want to contribute to Indonesia that's more cool in two people. in 2004-bye.

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Hello, people, we're coming Iwan Jaya Aziz, professor economy at Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management at Cornell University, in Ithaca, New York. Masiwan, thank you for the adirations in our acara our time.

Thank you, Ms. We want to talk about Kariya Kariya Nya and, Tentuia, and, TENTUANNANN MASSAN, about economy, the world, Kawasan, and Indonesia.

But, before we must to that, we might go the story Ms.I. From, what,

the most KATH, in Surabaya, then, school at U.I, and I don't know how can't get in intakot in Ithaka. Mungomass, I'm going to beaughan kind.

Maybe I'm bosan-khan, but yeah, it's just made, research, this. I'm even in Surabaya and in Indonesia, in the of the world of 50s, that almost

all of the media that was about economy that's in part of the way. And keep in mind that I'm a a child a journalist, and two, Two-two, two-two-new-new-new-newsjournalists. So, who have got to bea-boh-hary, there's 20-cabber in the room, and almost all the world on the economy, so on. So, how it's-you-nournge is the penguins,

what's been by what's what's happening with the social-economy, so that early on, what I'm notamondon, I'm nother, I'm learning more about about economy. And, what I'm the university of Indonesia just to know, faculties economics, so I think I'm going to be daftar to be there. But when I'm not that, if I don't know how long, if there's a gap, there's a gap, there's a different from the under the university.

So, because I have to be able, apical I'm not in U.S., I'm going to be, I'm going to be able to be able to be in Erlanga, mas. So I've got to be school in Rangah for three months, if I'm not a while. I'ma-upam, that's got to uproar. Now, that was the story of Ui I was the story, how I'd be made to Jakarta. Now, then, fast-forward, yeah. That's in the year, in the year,

that was in the U.S.S.A., in U.I. Waphth, and the decaned was al-Marcombe Al-Wardana. And that, I was that I'd be called to give to America. There was a program, student leader program or whatever. So that's the first time I'm in America, the same of my life, that, in the year of life, that, and that I was still became as a head. And then when I came back,

I'm going to be able to assistant and guru that first time I'm being assistant is Pa Emil Salim, that's at the matter of class, I remember that. Lally, Lottos, Lerlo, Pah, Al-Wardana, and so forthy. And then, I was in the year, I was in the year, 76. I'm going to study in Ui too. I was in the same in the same

in the same in LPM. In the LBEM. Then, of the time, generation, I, who had been doing to continue to study to the world and the other-negrie. And,

in 78, so after 28, I'm going to study in the U.U.W., that Harvard University, what's name, a call on a student of South, from one of the other one of Indonesia. But it's interesting, instead of the

chalon masiswana who active They're going to come. So they're going to the other than one of Indonesia. If not, there are three of Ui whoi who interviewed that. And I'm one one. Now, then they said, well, we'll be told if we're not if they're saying,

they're about about December because of the fall semester, that's from the month of August. August. So this was in 1979, so in 1979. So in 2009, but it's up to time, but he was the al-mahum Al-Wardana, Dekan, that, that, that meant I to Japan because there was program UNC-R-D, I remember vividly,

United Nations Center for Regional Development. And there, there, there was program that for the world for the world. And program that's seven-bunate. Now, I'm here in there, I was one-month I-cuit, I was going to do with a school for one

that one, that's one of the professor who, to call me, to ask, I'm saying, what, I'm, I'm going to be T.A.D.,

to be teaching assistant. In the way I'm here, I'm going to be with the person who's if there's 70 people. But I'm looking at the opportunity, so I'm going to be in TA, now, after, kind of three-bunals to be TA, he's called me also, then he said, I'm going to say, after the U.N. this,

by the way, the acer in Nagoya, in Japan, UNCRG. He's about you're after this idea of the other. I said, I've been interviewed by Harvard, and I'm looking at the point of it. And, he said,

he said, he said, if I was, if I'd tell me what I'm, what's the answer. And then a month later, I got a job of, that I was in the economy in university.

So I said I said that I'm going to be, I'm going to be able to see how much of the department. And the intoniness, he's going to Cornell. Because it's a decan at Cornell University, decan from the program regional science. Yeah, of course, you can imagine, I was still young, yeah. I don't want, I said. Thank you, Ben, thank you.

Just to be clear, the people in Japan who decan in Cornell? No. He's not. He's hired by UNCRD to make sure the program UN in Japan. He is a mathematician, by the way, Namannes, Almar Hulme, is he, he deacon in Cornell,

that's been made the United Nations to teach in Japan. Sorry, I didn't make it clear. So, that's the story. But I'm not much. I'm not much of the way that was that's the word of the word of the word. I said, no, no, no, my dean already said,

you know, I go to Harvard. Now, so he kept, he menacken, to get back to us, until he wasaughan when he came back to me. He said, oh, Deccan said, so I no longer have defense, not there's defense mechanism, yeah, it's been,

so I said, oh, yeah, it's, but the problem is that at that time, it was in the time, it was in August, First of Augustus, ma'amist. But you know, the semester is from September. By August, all is already ready. Apartment is already. I don't have anything, but maybe he

there is something, there is something. He said, let me arrange everything. So I just have to hand it. I didn't doffter, or what, only with the formular, only hand it's just. He has sent out of secretaries who made sure. So that brought me to Cornell,

Mas, in the same year, sorry for a bit boring, long story. And then, the Cornell, to PhD, in 2003, yeah, so,

so, in the year, in 2009, I'm going to Cornell. Oh, there's a kind of the story. One of the factor, because, even if he said, Jakarta has said,

I'm going to say, I'm going to say that but he'll also say, you know, if you're going to to Harvard, how you're going to

get back At that time, maybe 5 or 6 years, because of Sarjana Economy is the level of BA, yeah, maybe 5, 6 years. Then he said, I know you, because you've already been TA, if you're going to program in Cornell, I think you can finish in three years. Now, ma'as, my Godra got me too. So, wow, this is the best of the combination of events,

which, actually, made me make sure to speak mefussed to see. So, so two years, I'm from in 2009, when the end of the year the second year, so I remember, I think of the year, the last year, when I can't finish one, I can't finish. I'll three years ago. Then I asked him to see, I finished already all the course of this. Now, then he gave me,

I'm going to use empiric, so, what, the dissertation, or the theoretical, then he gives plus minus it, long story short, I'll pick the theoretical, because if empirics, data, back in 1982, yeah,

there's not even there. So if I'm more than data, I mean that I have to make data from Indonesia. And you can imagine what the factu-toe and so forth. So that was the reason I'm to make to make the theory, because if the idea, the pointy-four hours a lot of the purport,

let's make of, make of the same, matthesic, concept, theory, and all that. And that's, so in three years, I got got a GELAR BSD, and when I was I'm prolead BASISTA, and BASISD,

to in the time I, from the World Bank, yeah, that was five-town, that. So, but I had three-torn, so my professor, the same guy who forced me to move to Cornell that, he said, he's just like, you're going to be able to teach just in here, because there's just a lot, because there's jathe five years, so that was my

first time teaching at Cornell in 1983, yeah? 83, yeah? Yeah. Well, I'm back to Indonesia in 2008-5. That's the story of it. Now, then how can you can... Your life has been so predominantly academic.

Absolutely. Well, that's what I want. But... But, what's... So that's what I'm being who's going to know and is that's a temptation to come out from domain academics

that's a lot. But what made you stick? But not from my part, yeah. I see. The temptation is not from me. Now, that's how about? That's what? Yeah, so, so,

So in 2005, I'm back to Indonesia. And then, I was to be made to be a plighted to the LPM again, so my former office, but also, I'm going to ask, only two, three months, then, then, I'm going to be taken to be a part of the russan. So the capital jurusan, so the company. That's the economy, if you're not wrong,

then they'd be a jurorsan economy of the development. So I became the chair of the department. Lally, a year's year later, it's a program full bank, namany, inter-university center, IUC, the BASA-U-U-U-SATU-U-U-SATUUSATU-UESA. The inting is that is in the center of excellence in the whole Indonesia.

And for economy, it's the two universities, which is U.I and Kajamada. And I'm going to be director from the center that. And there's a lot, well, there are several programs, but the intention is to be able to be able to beckoning to beckonement, the intonement is, the main-partum, in the part of the economy,

in the part of each-mash-mash-a-U, because PAU is not in the industry, there's also in the program. And one of the program is recruit chalons-calon-econome to be given to the world-necary, then to help universities in the area, with education, and so-nots.

So that was... It started in 1986, in 2008- so it's not long as I came back to Indonesia. And that I'm giving me very proud, because it's been very proud, because it's being people of all. There's Sri Moliani, there, Dedi, Kati, Basri, and, there, Bollongu, there Bambang, Brojo, and so forth. That was the beginning of what I considered, new batch of Indonesian economics.

And then, oh, that was still in the way that's going to know how I'm back to Cornell. So that was 1986. And when I saw as I became the head of the ushant, he'd be made up to re-relippeden. Now, that wasry my wife's I want to get graduate study that's in 1990. And, in the cornel,

there's program master and I want to accompany, so I want to meet up to be here. It's, it's her name is it's not as far with me. So, he's almost I'm master's professor's to passer to pursue

to PhD. Now, in the I think, the big change in my life, it's just to be because I amputed to

be in front of himany he and and for he's been coming to I'm going to teach. So the long story

short, yeah, until now, it's current, I'm here I've done well. You've done well. Any regrets, Maas I want to school one other than?

Maybe two years, because, because, to be true, just to be clear. First of all, yeah, I'm just about two years. In the otak, I don't have a room to regret, but there's not there.

But, that's, sometimes I regret, Harvard, Harvard, to keep in-grap as a lusolem, so I still as a alumni for the first two years after 1979, so at the mail I was I received that, waddo, why didn't I go there? So, yeah, there, but after that, it's over.

Okay, okay. Now, we're going to go about economy, de, de, Ma'iwan. This, this, I've got to have the book of my Sivan and some of the articles that's the last one of the recent articles rising out of the ashes, or from the ashes of the Asian financial crisis.

Masiwan, to go about three crises that's just defining for not only Indonesia, but the the kawasan and the world. And, Masiwan, to, what, what, risk of what, what, to resists who are still, what, talk about it.

Talk about it. What, what, what, yeah, the people in Indonesia, to learn, you know, from pattern or trend that that's the three crises from 2008 to 2008 and tapered tantrum in 2013 and line, like that.

Want go, mas? Yeah, I'm so. I'm so. Calumant first one, where do I begin? So, where do I begin? But, maybe, maybe, And the inties is just about the 80s, if we have if we look at least of the crisis economy, in the financial crisis in the

world that it's, it's, and it's going to the frequency it. And not only frequency that's going to, but effect it, so the repercussions it's more than more than in the world's more than in latehmerica. So if you're in the United America, it's confined to the countries in Latin America, and it's one, two, and the the best of the other than that's the other than. But, from the 1990s, it, melebar. So, not only frequency of crisis that's the increase in the

effect more regional, So it's not local, but regional. Now, it was okay, to be able to be global. So, uh, I don't be there's, the effect to global more than more. That's the point first.

Point two is that, that almost the crisis that's almost with, what I'm the risk that's what I call hidden risk, yeah.

Because, to be frank, the people, economists, yeah, it usually can beajury something that's going to bring crisis, learn from what

what had been created crisis before so that they're out of the other than indicator, or a geyshala, that's to be hindering, so that's not that's correct. That's right, and that's right.

But, there's crisis again. The cause of crisis that is, in-out-it-out-it-lore that, the other that's what I mean by the human-te-comin-eus. That's what I mean by hidden-trace.

And, And, just to bring up the reasoned that's in the the marketer's got, financial sector. Because we know

sector sector co-uangan is different animals compared to the actual. If sector real, it's asymmetric information.

I'm sorry, I'm going to use the word. the the kind of of the transaccy is in the sector real. If I'm going to

sell barang to us, we see, we like, we negotiate the price, I'd buyer me and of the story, but if in sector kubangue

is asymmetric income that many like a piece of paper. I'm selling you a piece of paper that's like I owe you like, if you're like, in a day, it's all in the mental perception of the

pasture. That's that's why uncertainty and asymmetry in the sector co-wangan. And, basically, that's what's been the same thing that I've got to the that's not even though I'm not even though

can't even than you can't detects. So, the frequency is now, the more global repercussions. And, in-baling it's all, there's hidden risk. So the article, Mr. was the referer, I really,

I really want to make Soal that, with the three episodes of crisis that's the situation that's the crisis Asia, then the deeper tantrum and GFC global financial crisis. This, if we look, 2008, that's kind of policy response that's done by America's the United, That's got back-a-again with what they're advocated to us in 1998. That's what, even if can be able to say,

even if it's evening-kally, what, yeah, resentment, like, like, like, like, like, like, even, the more extreme is, of the people who's on the monafical in policy response that's very talk backang. They're making

things that are being what they're doing what they want to do. Now, that, I want to try to go, that's why,

and, and, with policy makers in America? How much? Yeah, the lesson is, try to be a country maje because if you're going to be a country maju,

whatever you're not even international organizations like IMF, it's been able to talk cut it. Because if we look at the episode that we ask about this can't look at some of the angle, yeah, and one angle is where the power of the of the World War International, like IMF. Because their, they should have to be in stability of the world.

What is what? What is what? Whatever is that spillover not even end up to be gangu economy of the United. And, the inting that's as a member international.

And we know what happened. They said nothing about U.S. policy that's called QI, quantitative, you know, because the country mayju. Or you can put it in a different way

For the U.I. We have to Indonesia, wow, we're going to be bentat-pentat. So, the meanlessness, yeah, so it's not inbentat, but that's not in the end-bentat. That's from angle international organization, but from the other, what, we asked, we asked,

is, about moral responsibility from policy makers in Washington. So, like this. Crisis is an extraordinary event, yeah. And sometimes whether we like it or not, no matter how high or how low is your position, we are all human beings. If we are doing upon extraordinary event, our natuery that will come out of something extraordinary,

so. So, QE, quantitative e-sing, that, if we're, if we're trying in textbook economy, Where is there? There's no. Even that's negative interest rate, that's not there. Cases of all, Massachusetts, why, this is why, who is there are by now.

As I'm speaking, if I'm speaking, if not wrong, five countries have made negative interest rate. There's no, that text book where. So that is the reaction from event that extraordinary, event that they're they're just as far as they don't know

to have to be how to how to the way of how to do. Because they don't know to how they're going to take the gillan pintas. So the first thing they are that, because the problem is in the sector financial and at the present in 2008,

and the sector of the American is on the brink of collapse. Right. Yeah. logica, just that's just we can't help. Now, how much more than how much more than how much their net worths and how much how much? Dibli's just,

and it's just made sure of their work-a-merga-merka. And it's just made-like, uh, up to, what, norma, norma, a bank central, yeah. Because bank central in the world, it can, can, can't buy surat-behras, but it has to rat be a credit-peragued the government,

because it has non-risky, because the purpose of bank central to buy surat-beck, not to find the good to find out, but to be in order to keep on the monetary policy, monetary stability, and so forth. But, this, All right now, they've been able tovass-wasta,

yeah, they buy a surrogatea swastah that toxic, so that's totally not safe, yeah? Now, from the suburb, it, anomaly, how they make sure that's doing all this that out of the waychering. But again, if we think, they're human-you-day, if we have we have we have, if we have, if we have,

we have to be like great depression, that's the way of 2008, and that's what, who's going to geto, that name-nama, that people in the way that, know, namas, that, I don't know, I don't know to be able to be it. So it's not, um, the, um, the nalururisiana, out.

Yeah, we'll help them, with them buy them buyaragre so that they're about their so that we can't collect. So we can't see if we're looking at it from the sudut. They're as a bit more than this extraordinary, they're also

sibou, meliate what is the dampak and how how much how it's speaking now, can't be able to becky-hour-in-day-in-ne. how out of the extra, extra-easy policy so much more than what we're going to be able to be. So, we're going to be able to beckonement from the world,

to look, this is something that not, not, not have to do with, What, and the other than the effect is the other than I think that's the effect, right, I think I'm going to do you know, that's, what I'm going to do with America when it was, is, it, is, it, is, a global liquidity. So, the arous model asing that's coming to countries, be thereofsuania, derasiness,

and massive, massive, and the effect is also, and the effect is also, but if I see, if we can't we can't make up the same the same Is that your question, ma'am?

Yeah. Because I'm not, I'm going to look at, it's just going to unwind. Yeah, right. Yeah. Yeah, I think that's a very good point, yeah. Because MMT, so modern monetary theory, that's now that's about many people,

not because theory that's good, but because facta, practice in many countries today, that's making it, so it's going to beckoning. So it's interesting, because basically one concept or theory that's been debase before being theory, but this is fromuil it with practice. So many countries that have done in the United States.

Now, that's a problem is, is that's about theorke the idea of the DMMT is the same the thinking with what is done by many of the countries now. Inaud, I'm not, not same. There are the same thing,

and that's what that's the person, who, um, what, what, what, what, what did do you do with bank central in many of the same in the same inmptu. But, if we're not, it's different. So, not,

not always same. Intinia, it's not, I'm going to, I'm sure, I'm just, so I'm making, maybe, um, what, you're not really, I'm generalization, yeah. to just to meditrahanacan, it's like to imbaraatement to the bank central.

So. So, for Indonesia, it's baratheerableing, pinded to Jalan Tamrin. Right, can, it's the... Financialization of the fiscal. Yeah, right.

But, but I'm, If we can't actually if we can't make up, if we can't make sure that's about, that's about the bank central to make up making money. So printing money, with using reserve, it's better. So, the panang of the people that, because bank central,

it's money, that's similar with the money. No, it's not. It's not the same. If you know, if you're about the surat-peratured with 100% percent in getta the M.M.M.T. But that's what is the difference. Now, this is the difference. Now, this is the minute of the COVID-19 outbreak,

this if I'm wrong, QE that's done by the United States, the U.S.A., the U.K., to some extent, China, that's a number of $10 trillion, which is massive, right? Now, if I see M2, of the world in the other than major major major

that's about, or even more than more than $100 trillion, which is massive, yeah, can? And what I've put in also, liquidity

like that, more be able to for the importance of countries and aggra not nother and the other than it is quite unfortunate, that's symmetry in mobilization of liquidity

or liquidity. And don't you think it's, it will have structural consequences? Because of the money that's much that's more be able to for the importance of the majoring of the majoringga, it's a separate debate.

But what's the next the country is becoming not been beneficiary for the money or liquidity that's massive, that's. The question is okay,

is, is this will make a consequence that structural of the zone the zone of the

major and the which is the other than the other than the other than to have to adoptive theorette-of-theirer and modern, to be it to beaumatry the sameatry to be. Yeah.

The short answer is yes. So, what, for sense of proportion, yeah, we just, we've been to make-bundingk, with M-2, with the amount of redar. Maybe more than than than what I said

said, the sector towaghan who's going to collapse. Amble just one, ma'am, one, man, one, uh, uh, surat-baraguerga. surat-heragah that's-sifat-a-sul-a-sul-su-a-su-su-su-a-su-a-su-a-su-a-su-a-su-a-su-a-su-harmes. It's-one-a-a-sur-a-sur-sur-su-a-su-su-su-a-su-su-a-su-su-a-su-su-a-su-a-su-a-su-a-s. Nile CDS, one of America,

that's not a reason, the value is relative to be small, maybe $1 or $2 trillion U.S. dollar, which is small compared to the size of the U.S. economy, which, by the way, is $18 trillion. In 2008, the economy America, about $18 trillion.

By 2008, the way CDS 1%%%% $62 trillion. Imagine, one surat $62 trillion dollars

did bring in economy that the big $18 trillion dollars. You don't need to be rocket scientist. That pounce to collapse

that that's what I want to tell you guys. I'm going to show of, I'm sorry that when Ben Ben-Banaki, yeah, when you were in his shoes. Panic you, imagine this, economy you only only $18 trillion. This is this that collapsed, by the way,

that's $62 trillion, not into account. So it's real extraordinary. Real extraordinary. Now, if we're trying with what, what, what, the pre-stivaugh this, it's going to be a lot of it. That's why we're going to be able to hear that the government in the world

has to make an extraordinary measure because COVID. So, it's not. But that's actually that's before COVID, that's in 2008. But human memory, sometimes short, yeah. So, that's the only is that it's not COVID. But although,

so, this is from the vulnerability this has been from 2008. So, because two-kally, not only only

this is you can imagine, it will be that's what I mean by my short answer. And the question is, masse, we're, about it will be a problem of structure? Oh, definitely yes.

Definitely, yes. I'm going to push again, the question two, which, as far where the countries are becoming, in Indonesia, that has to adopt

the of the policy monetary to more than a similar asymmetry? Okay. Again, my answer is we don't know. Because we don't know, because we don't know, let alone the next six months,

we don't know what what's going to be in the next two years from now. So it all depends on how the kind of economy evolve. So if you've got to the economy, because we don't even know, that's a certain way of the development. This is not like to make a goal in the mindset of football that, what, the target is still going to be. The target is moving, it. So if, if, the kind of, say, six-buner-one from now, it's still like,

I think I still support what is what's doing what's called, what, what, what, to help to participate in the sector real. Because the standard of Bank Central can only manage stability monetary, but in the extraordinary, everybody, including Bank Central, must be able to be able to be So you're suggesting that monetization of the fiscal

is an option to be considered going forward. It definitely is an option, because this extraordinary event. Yeah. Now, Tadhiwan was about evolution. I want to tariff to the history of money. So, I'm going to ask, the panang of Masiwan,

about crypto. But if we're taking the time Mesopotamia, 5,000 years ago, that's, can, actually, in the form of tablet ceramic, to make sureminkan

relation between creditors and debitur. But that, it's be aggap, not-fundable. Because for the the specific but that's a very evolutions to be ableuosy,

to coin for the multidimansy, so that fungability is there's now, this I'm in looking,

people, especially, they're going to NFT, non-fundable token. Now, maybe you are are in the best position to provide the philosophical background. Why, why, why, why, after after, this, why's more popular, in view of what you believe has been happening

with the U.S. dollars or currencies currency line? Mungo, boss. Yeah. That's a big question. Maybe The Penderrash, there's There's my own opinion, there There's a lot of

There's a lot of establishment So, so they're, they're not too percaya, like, before, with establishment. And establishment is, And establishment is much of the format of the establishment politic. Misalya, how much of the government Trump,

can be chosen to be chosen to be president, but also, establishment, authority, termassauity in the bidangue of the economy. So it's a long story, that's globalization, so that's many people that'serate that's with globalization this. So if you look

look at the agregate macrosy, but the life of their day, not, not to germane in the per-buycan and soothen. So there's some some

kind of kind of to the establishment. because of that, they're not even to make sure they're making them all of them, they're doing,

that's the centralized system. So, if it's done at the local level, at the family level, the most reddish, it's just. So survival, the mode of survival is, So that's So that If you look

Lookeran best, the data Bitcoin, crypto and the rest of course that, I'm I'm looking at the sudet

that. They're they want a decentralized system. In this we talk decentralized

financial system So, so it's not controlled by the body that's the part of

the part of the That's the numbering that. That's about it. That's about it. But for you, the money that's the money that's the money that is the means of transaction.

So if I buy something from you, you want to get in return, something. Now, this is what can be much, What's what's about what's In normal time, it's something is that's worth, how much we're going to

know what I'm doing, what I'm doing, that's worth of money that I buy from us to get by that. That's your perception. Because, because that's beingalami this not only one, but

the people, but the people are in a lot of the way of the way of transactions, that's about a lot of the way of the way. But, but if you're going to be a hypothetical case that extreme, misalry, the people that's being made, so, so,

it's not 100, it's going to, it's, it will be able, because, is the means of transaction. That's the actual isle-as-likeinging. Perkemen of the backanguaghan,

this is one that I've got in as a hidden risk, ternetra, a set of the cartas that did notamacaned money, it's functioninges, it's a melebar, not only means of transaction, but it's means of investment. So it's a lot of investas. So even though it's not just too long as long as far as far as

so much as a crypto or bitcoin for me, I don't know what I'm going to be able to happen. To me, it's not a currency. To me is a means of investment. So that's the same So that's the same So that's the way I see it

And so far as I know I'm saying, so big a lot of people also, so it's a lot of investations. So it's just. Artiness, what? And look what happened with the gyration of what?

What's the nilay bitcoin like, turn, like. How can you expect what currency that's like that's like that's like that's like it's a lot of the world, or a market that's worth of money that's that's the way I see it. It's a Bitcoin, which is a new, it's a new toy, a new means of investment.

And as far as we look it, for me to, for meek-okay-s-s-a-k-shajave-a-oh-shajave. It's like that. If you're doing investas. If you lose, you lose. If you lose, you lose. Namann, you'll invest. If you win, you win. Hello,

teman, thank you, thank you, check release the new from Future Narrator's merchandise collection and docung to make

the idea of the idea of narrator, narrator, car and the link There's a description. Now back to the show. There's also a lot of... There's also a pointangang of that, maybe

the people who are, beingung or genufe, with dollar that's more bigot that much. So, it's not finite again. Because it's just not finite so that value per unit is that is it's being up, it's the value proposition on the dollar, that's the

that's what's going to alternative, now, Bitcoin, can, can be said finite, just 21, jute unit. Yeah. Yeah, Is it's a reason that valid, that's a valid, that's a valid. That's part of when I said earlier establishment.

So one of, some of, what I said earlier, establishment, is the dollar. that's an establishment, that's an establishment, that's a lot of, that's about repartagnacan, it's. Now, reaction is much-machshund, because not always reactions,

they're always to crypto or to bitcoin, right, reaction is one, and I know, this is done by the other and the other than Asia also, Indonesia, that's used

multiple currency, with Yuan, with Yon, with, so, so much more than the un-hmm dollar, that's the reaction that's the time, has been at the extreme, there's reaction that we said, then later than you, and then, it's, it's been,

there's, yeah, and, each-mash-musting-puner-resiko. So you have to make making. If you have to make the risk, if you're making, it's not a risk of risk. But maybe risk not as a big if you're going to run to money like crypto, yeah.

But on the other hand, maybe they're looking at returner again. High risk is high return, right? If you want to get a quick high return, then, you know, high-risk, that's. So, yes, I think I'm in fact that, there's a lot of the law. Maybe the other than the two

that I've seen as I've heard, is, with not-adainting-em-emass, that's also that's who's people who's people who are notive, including crypto. Now,

if it's about hypothesized that if if, if, before, that's there's,

there's quantitative easing or prolonging or plongareran quantitative that's not even if it's top, implication is that crypto is value proposition. Can't, yes, ma'am?

It's. It's just to be, but if you if you're asking for probability, if it's a separate question. It's not, if I'm not for the probability But it's the end up to gold standard. But it's a scenario that, if we've made one study, research,

to make a scenario that we asked us to say. It's been able to be. Ibarat, so it's probably not too big, this, this, excitement about this is the same-as-a-cuitable, can't,

well, can't be able to be consenambungan, right? And that that's what might be one that I said as as I said as a hidden-risk. So don't be surprised, yeah,

if I don't know, where and when to be in the financial crisis that's because is because of that. And, like the sectors of the other that are related to IT, information technology. But, usually, the regulator is always too late,

so long as a rink, so, the regulator is always at the belacken. The relator is always who's beenang. Yeah. we're about about Indonesia. This I'm going to try to ask about about what we're going to be a lot. The first, if we're looking,

we're going to be redarer to the economy our, this ratio is still a little bit of the least in below 50% is the ratio of the economy of modern, in the world of America, in Europe, Tyeongkog, even in, I think, if I'm looking at Indonesia, many people who have had ideas entrepreneurial

that are very-biasa, and they want to be people who are but the standard-stacredasance is that's not be able to be with the debt, they'll be there's a betterbatassan. Now, this, from the economy,

how, you know, Ma'u'an, to help the kids'ad our people to the for them can, um, to them, uh, what, what, yeah, this is kind of this is like, um,

the latter-belakang muncuncunnel, and,stst, yeah, which they're having idea, but, the,

the stilani, Mr. we're, we're, and,st, and,st, so soon, then.

Taddy, that, that's just that, that's people, have to have, to get it with,

there's not there, if I'm not in, if I'm not from the other, I'm not, we've seen as a young, I'm looking, if I'd like,

I'd like to see it from the UMKM, so, so, uh, uh, uh, uh,

uh, that's the fact that's that's the potential and have been puttonsie and the idea, and idea it's not idea high-tech much-machmach, the idea that that's from

what, what, the tradition of their, which, I think, value-necue. But, because all of all-a-macham, it's not can't

come from one one, one, it's, but, but, if, If I'm not only that,

even that's not that's the most of the most of the most of us, but that's what we're saying, so on the other, that's about it. I think, as you know, 99% of the world of the industry of UMKM, 99% that's if it's a little bit more than a way that's just, This is all the form of ambattedalabotan, like that's about. I cannot imagine how it will be what... Value unleashing, yeah.

...mel that's what's out of what's amazing. And, it's going to beck-lacquoise. And, it's relatively more, mas. Lain with making money, credit-muror, subsidized credit for UMKM, it's, can, It's not all that's about the law. But it's only the hand of the hand,

drop the other than that. That's just, but you know, if you drop that, you lose your power. Interesting. And what we're looking, we'll see this over COVID this, what's making COVID this unique from the economic is that's

the most of the micro-un-un-KMKM. Because of the metastasan mobility of physics, which in 2008, or in 2008, they're not there's not the impact what we've seen

23 of the last year this. I, I'm set-a-backed, that the lightar their need to be able and be able to be able to be able to beaubracken. Now, but sorry to belabor the point, but I'm not only UMKM, but non-UMKM, this is many who have the idea that need to scale,

not only upward mobility just, but scale. Now, no-not-mau, but to do-lust, right? Now, if we're looking at tech just, it's the idea of technology after-a-a-air-a-a-re-ry-in-in, it's not topang by the data from outside. And I'm not against it, yeah, right?

But what I'm notarthur is that's about issues about nationalism to be related to data sovereignty or what, that's not yet can be pleasate, to, in the community. If the ideas, the brilliant, this at all the time, and to come, and to the upon, it's just,

it's topang with modal from out of the scale with scale of the same, while in the level of institutions, or individual, it's not able to support with scale that we look at like that's from the world. Now, that, I'm looking at, But at the end-to-to-o-o-to-you-o-hung-a-ohan, I mean, correct me if I'm wrong.

But I'm looking at, this opportunity is a lot-biasia, for value-en-lishing, to be able to be related with ideas that not only micro-U-M-K-M-K-M-K-M- that's not-un-un-K-M-K-M-K-M that also I cannot agree more than what you said. I'm not saying. I'm not... Pendanaan, it's very important to endamping the idea of innovation.

Because innovation, it's not from within them, and innovation that doesn't be realization if there's supporting facilities. Now, not the only one, but one support of the facility, is the penanaan. I agree that. But what I'm going to beckon,

pendanaan, it's other factors of factors. And, I'maf, if I was more using a example of the case micro, because I'm doing doing the penitance,

that's more, the wayarer of, not about the landaer. It's about the lawyering, that's about it. I don't disagree with you. But I'm not in the after the end of the end up from kmkm just,

but the non-micro-UMKM can there's no, there's a data in domain local, so they're going to out, not because preference, but because not only alternative in the country,

and this is a bit of a lot, and it's not even if we're gawbril on the data sovereignty, because data is sensitive to come, to the front. Yeah, I agree, and I have been having, I'm having, um, I'm, um,

I'm going to be it's about it. I'm going to say, there's a case. Mongot. Yeah. I was going to go to Kayu in Acheh, yeah. And,

interact with the sub-protanic coffee in there. That, the, we're in one lost man, when I want to check out from the loss man, I see there, people of the other people, two people,

be it's under one woman, Indonesia. And then, she looked at me, he was in the way of my husband he, he was in Japan, I've been a few years ago. I've seen from there. I asked with him, there what is,

there's what, in Gai'u, there two people, there are one one venture capitalists from America, from California. The one of the one of Indonesia is one of the staff from the company.

I asked, there are what they here? They have been biayayy petanee coffee in Gaiy who, who's two or three years, that's been trying to the money for the development of their and they're trying

They're not there's domestic. There's not that's for some reason. This financial company in America I'm not know how much, but they're going to know, Kaukofi is a well-known round the world. They're me to me that is one tiny example that reflects what you were saying.

It's very many of the other than that's because there's been a landanan from the country, man from the world. Okay. This I'm going to ask Ms. Iwan, after this, can, many of the talk about tapir tantrum, the quatirang of inflation.

This is valid, or is this episodic? Is this episodic? I mean, is this supposed to last for a long time? Or this is it supposed to be a long time? Or this is it a little, or even episodic, not long as we've got to be discussed earlier, that this is an extraordinary event that's not only from COVID, since 2008, by COVID,

it's like by COVID, yeah, logica we can't be able to go to go to the same, so it's going to be a peering process, right? Now, tapering process is, has spill over effect to the rest of the world, and that's that then that's the last of the world, in the epistem of the epitaphotism. But it's inevitable.

It's only about time, but it's just a sequence, because there's, there's two things that are done in the country and majoring that money, which is monotry, which is menornecant tinkat bunga, and the second, buying all those assets,

which I was told you, so our asset purchase, yeah. Now, this sequence is manned-d-dul-dural-and-duner-and-duner. to make up to make up to make up to gain of the cost of the purchase that is called as well. Now, that's all of the countries. But whatever they're doing, effect is there is the rest of the world,

including Indonesia. But the quatiron about inflation, this is legitimate legitimate, is this, will beckon not, is it? For the country... Mungo, go, sila, sila. No, I'm just curious.

Your question is... For the country... Yeah, America. Yeah. If, yeah. Well, yeah, if you're legitimate, you know, I'm just with my sister-sha, what, not what, group of shopping, that...

It's not a... Oh, it's really, yeah. Oh, it's a lot of... It's very much, now, the question is, if it's going to be agamble to be hyperinflation? Or, not use it hyperinflation,

it's going to be gungu to be double-digit inflation like in the 70s. Yeah, can, you know, in the same-unclean that would be mucle to be high inflation in America. If, if, I'm sorry, I'm going togap, not. It's not because it's because it's, because it's, because it's

there, there's a prehistia in 2008, and there's COVID, and then there's supply chain, so there's shock, bizarre. By definition, it's inflation is not a level of price, inflation is a kind of a high. So, it's the upraignment of the higher. So, it's going to be it.

But is up to make up to the other than the other. That's the US, two economists, you have five different answers. If I, personally, this is now high inflation, but it's not going to be like in the 70s. Okay. Not can sustained, yeah. Okay, that's what I was trying to get.

And effect to the negas, the other and again to be developing in Indonesia? If I'm not too concerned, yeah, for the because of the effect from what I've been created, that's what you're going to be more to be a major-ma-macrued. I think, I'm going to be a point of my opinion. I think that's the end up productivity is more more than more than more than

by way of innovation technology, especially of the power of decerdasance artificial and line-like, that's not know how, intuitively,

that's making I think I'm thinking I'm like not not too inflationary, if productivity still, And that's both for the government

and for the government of the world in front, it's even if you're going to be a lot of short-lived or temporary, this will taper down again, or expectations inflation, too. Is that the right line of thinking? Correct me if I'm wrong. No, no, I mean, it's clear if you improve your productivity, you basically dampen the inflation.

The same I hope that's up, episode of the kind of uprorederickan productivity because artificial intelligence and much, much, that, it's spillover, ma's. So, not only one, two, or a small, or a bit of small, That's what I'm my dream is that is to my dream is to be able to spread to 99% of the people who are also making an improvement.

Masiwan, I want to ask, on the consanguant, if we look at Genie Coefficient ratio. This is all across, yeah, not in the country, mishkin, the country perkemang, this is making up to,

This is what'siwan, what's what? What's what? What's going to be? I want to make, I'm going to be a new bough. Yeah. If you want to go back in person, please read my book.

No, no, I want to provoke you, because I read your book, but I want to, people in Indonesia, I think of the way that's why one? Yeah, partly, yeah, I'm not, I'm not, not, not-itakable, but partly we,

economists are to blame, that party, because, since the 80s-an, we raised the flag, and, what, what, globalization, liberalization, and it turns out that not the

the quite it's not quite there's quite that's quite that's quite can't make make the impact

positive from liberalization and globalization and that translation is it's making contimbangangan

and it does all the world and the stimpangangue is multi-demansi not just the plopo

people, people, the world, and the other-rear-a-o-a-er-a-reli-reli-reli-reli-reli-reli-reli-reux. For Indonesia, that's relevant, it's all the inter-daerahra, because we are the largest archipelago in the world, and heterogeneous our heterogeneity, we can thinky-as-old.

So it's already, partly we economists are to blame that in the 80s and 90s-an, include, manner that. Because of that, many economists now, how to make globalization

work, how to make liberalization work, that's what we're going to get to go. If the reason, the reason, it's,

I, I'm probably look from two sud. The one is the suddue history. And that That's in the one of the two, if I'm not that's two,

dualism. Because Indonesia is to have a story dualism that's written very by a person Belanda that named Google, who made the theory social dualism in Indonesia. The point is, when you have a system, traditional system, then

you've gothapunging the other, which is the world, was the system Belanda, that's not going to be something that synergy. So, even whenimul can't conflict

and menimulking what he called the social dualism, that that's, that's the story, that we've got, we've got to be it's not so much as a bookerangue because of the booker, even in the book she's also

mingume a little about India because he also may look similarity with the case in India. The second, from the subc concept. Now, this is what I want I highlight in the

book my book that is concept centripetal versus centrifugal. So in any development process, in any there's this, it's like gravity forces. You cannot escape from it. Masalance is, how you're going to getassies this. Now, bias'ania, if you're going to be able to sentrypetal forces

is more than the centrifugal forces. Hasilness is inequality, the topanguant, particularly ketimpanguant antar-willay. Because centripetal is forces that may beacred can

some of the activities in one miliah and it's menimulcan intramed inequality. That's what any social planners have to deal with

how to mitigate that. Interestingly, the same sort of conflict between centripetal and centri-local forces that potentially can something positive, that's what, external economists that's the people like Michael Porter,

Marshall, and soothiness, it's not going to say that if you're going to do do you know, in a cluster, so you gain all the benefit, or whether it benefit, whether or not benefit, from the knowledge pooling, information pooling, and such, yeah. So, the conclusion of my book is,

is because of the process centrifugal and centripetal this is not be hindered, like the whole thing, the law of, what, the work of gravitation, the task of social planner is, one, mitigating the impact of inequality, two,

the, the potency of the power of this can't make-fulment-in-in-in-lawful-economic. So that's my view about the kittankan. It's interesting. This is, if it's been bunkus, in context planning, which is the fact of centralistic versus decentralized,

that's, the power of centripetality, how that? So that's the kind of the right. Yeah, it's like, it's like, there's, you know, there's,

it's not, but you're trying to be able to, but you're trying to manhannia. So, there's a power can't as central total, to concentrate, and then we're trying

to manage it with, and that's a strategy that's desensualization. So that's the analogy, yeah. Yeah. Tentu, there's dampak,

you know, dampa, tibba, the gap, the thing, the thing, the amount, yeah,

so, so, anguarm, so, but that doesn't mean, that's you leave the system work

after you, that you, that's the the name is the gravitational, it's not just means that centripetal and centri-forces it's still working. And it's still working.

And it's what's going to be, and this did in the world, even after you impose through the bigiaghani, it's still, the power of this, So that maybe the policy implication is this, just that's not that's not even though

desensualization, it's one shot. Because once you do that, you need to continue supporting policies, so that itself, not be as a as something that can't be able to bemerotan. It's not that, What's what's about what's up? What's the message of my book is,

and the message of my book is, you have to design policy that compatible with social capital in each of the area. How, this is if it's in the... QE, or polongerant quantitative, which,

that big that's bigot, it's just in instruments, instrument, instrument, and it's not down to down, so that index economy real with indexed pasar model, it's more divergence, the more gaping.

Yeah, that's really, that's almost 100% study that's the impact of QI, to have the U. in America, yeah, in Europea

that's about, it's about it's about, it's just that. Because it was the idea of the QI was designed to help who mollapse that, the name-nama-nama that, you know-collapse, and when they escape from collapsing,

then, that's that I said, forces, forces, to, still be real-lank, and that's what, that's that's making bigger. because access to have access to the world's the world. It's the same-asurbanes.

So, what the same thing is, they're having assets. Asset, is there, what, what, name is human asset, if we're labor, we work, that's human-asset. There are non-human asset. Now, non-human asset, to have housing, if we have a property, or financial asset. Now, QI, it's more thanabra to financial asset,

so that they're who have access to the financial asset, it will be ununged by QE. That's almost 100% to study has done shown you in America, mas. The last, what I want to try, what I'm established, correlation, or I try, between the consangangangang, or ketimpang,

with Medesos, media social. Medesos, this, kind, is actually, it's just enough, polarisation percapapan. And, is, polarization of the polarization this be correlates with

with the samegation. Yeah. That's not the other than my name, but let if I may, it's mind-boggling for I. But I'm fully aware that every other people are different, because, for me,

with technology, technology, that's what you said yourself, yeah. Productivity should have increased, but why this is not a-jolitan, if I forgot what chapter, but I'll show you, growth of productivity we're going to run. It happens at the same time with the of the internet, and so far, the only evidence that I have

is data about the manfaited from internet in Indonesia. And partly, not entirely, but partly, I'm in fact that I said, mind-boggling that, 80% is 80% is the the benefit of the fact that's not for productive use. So partly it's just that's about it's not the badang I cannot answer your question. Because I know the essence of your question is more than that.

I can't be able to, because I don't know that. to the people. Yes. Yes, yes. This is the last of our talk about we're talking about Indonesia to the future. And we can't do a lot of people, but I don't remember, but I don't remember

if I'm going to say one, the key for economy Indonesia is the day-belie. Yeah, right? Does that still hold true? true and to how much, so so that's great? Give us your words of wisdom.

Okay, that's true. But that is maybe second or third, even fourth order, yeah? Yeah. Because it's still to bekechered again, what's what that it's why? And if there's a job, yeah, still can bekechard again. So to me, the first order, it's human capital.

Because at the end of the day, it's manusia. But, but definition of human capital, if for me, I don't only mention skill or pendidication. Because I know, many people, if you're talking, associations is the union. But also, it's the healthing. To me, one of the positive thing about COVID is a reminder, no matter how rich you are, no matter how powerful you are, if you're at, if you're going to be, if you're going to be, if you're going to be able to contribute to us,

even negative. Because there's the bias to be it's the essence of human capital. Daya belies and such a lot of there's why I agree the day of belief, but that is maybe the third order. Second order is institution.

You can, wow, it can be able be able to bechara one semester about institution. But even institutions can be able they can't getcha again, the first order for the first-not-less is the social capital. For the society like Indonesia, that's very ethnic and very heterogeneous, you cannot ignore social capital, termassue, um, um, um, what, uh, society, uh, the, uh, the the socialists is how much of the

the challenge is how much for the positive, that's the third degree or four degree, it's made that we say that we'll say that we're saying that. And if you can't imagine, there's many of the questions about this, how Indonesia's 40-tallon to the future and source. To me, because if we're the same, because if we'll be there, and if we're using referensy genera,

yeah, that generation millennial and generation Z, yeah, because if millennial, can, that's the last, if not it's not until 12, yeah. The end up, if I'm going to the last, I'm the last year, the census the last year 2020, so two years ago, that's the number that the genera millinial is about 70,000. Yeah.

Sedang-can the generation is 30 million. So if you combine both generations, massive. It's 100, you know. So when you talk about, Indonesia 40 years from now. Talk about them. Bicara about 100,000 look at this year, look at this year,

look at their, and the rest of it. I don't have the answer. But I only want to look at what, look at me, don't look at the current generation. Because we'll talk about 40 years in the future. That's what they're, that's what. how much, how much. So those are the way of seeing Indonesia 40-tawn-to-degpon-gred, ma'amah.

That's the point I'm in my opinion, ma'amas. Spakat. And, and, justur, podcast, we're, too, peck-a-as-called that, who's justro, the young people, if there are... No, I really...

I sincerely, when I said, I admire what you're doing. I meant it. Because one of the one we can do is share what we don't even want to call it share it, because we know we're not more than the other than them but we're better than we're just in their own. So maybe they're more knowledgeable, but Share it's just the

So I admire what you're doing. Thank you. Thank you. I, I'm going to talk about gap in information with idea. Gap and idea with the people and gap between

with the bigiakshanaan. And I'm as much with Ms. Yuan, and we're more than we're more sharing the experience. Moodahundahan, it can make up

wisdom in the human, or in the more than in Indonesia. There's a person, Passing, Ms. Mastya, for Indonesia? No, there, no, I mean, I'm saying every day, I'm going to be a bit of good not only Indonesia, but in the whole of the world.

Yeah. Yeah. And, and, you know, people here will take your message that's what it takes for us to be a great nation. Thank you, Maas Iwan. Thank you. Thank you.

I'm always, ma'am, man. Yeah. Yeah. Saga, same. Same, same. Salam, sehat. Iwan Jaya Aziz, Professor Economy, the Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management,

at Cornell University. Thank you. This is Endgame.