Epic Real Estate Investing - Analyzing the Current Real Estate Market: Investment Opportunities & Challenges | 1281

Episode Date: November 6, 2023

Are you ready to embark on an epic journey through the thrilling world of real estate investing? It's time to buckle up because this week's episode of the Epic Real Estate Investing Podcast is a heart-pounding adventure that you won't want to miss! Matt and Mercedes, your trusty guides in this high-stakes arena, are pulling back the curtain on the ever-evolving real estate market. They'll give you the insider knowledge you need to stay ahead of the game, ensuring you're never caught off guard by market shifts. But that's just the beginning of this action-packed ride! Prepare to rumble as they tackle the heavyweight contenders – fluctuating interest rates and inventory constraints. Discover the strategies that only the savviest investors use to emerge victorious in the face of these challenges. But wait, there's more! Matt and Mercedes will also shine a spotlight on the unpredictable impact of geopolitical situations and reveal the hidden truths behind the misconceptions propagated by mainstream media. You'll be armed with unadulterated facts, giving you the edge you need to dominate the world of real estate. This isn't your average podcast; it's a masterclass in real estate investing, emphasizing the importance of thorough research and understanding before making your next move. Get ready to sharpen your skills and pave the way to financial freedom. The bell is about to ring, and the epic battle for your financial future is about to begin. Are you prepared to play the real estate game like a pro? Hit that play button, and let's dive into the Epic Real Estate Investing Podcast! Your journey starts now. P.S. Whenever you're ready to go deeper and further with your real estate investing, looking into my partner program to help you get your first deal might be the move... take the first step here for free 👉 https://epicearnwhileyoulearn.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This is Terio Media. Ladies and gentlemen, real estate warriors, brace yourselves for a podcast episode that's about to take you on a wild ride through the high-stakes arena of real estate investing. This week, the spotlight is on the ever-evolving real estate market. Mercedes and I will be your seasoned guides through the treacherous terrain,

breaking down the current state of the market so you're never caught off guard. But it doesn't stop there. Get ready to rumble as we offer. our perspectives on fluctuating interest rates and recognized inventory constraints. This is a showdown where only the savviest investors emerge victorious, and you're about to learn how to dance through these market challenges like a pro. Further, we'll be delving into the impact of geopolitical situations on the real estate market,

as well as those sneaky misconceptions spread by mainstream media about the economic health of the housing market. We're ensuring you're equipped with the unadulterated facts you, need for real estate domination. This isn't just a podcast. It's a masterclass in real estate investing emphasizing the necessity for thorough research and understanding before you make your next move. So real estate enthusiasts, get ready to take notes because this is the podcast that will sharpen your skills and lead you to financial freedom. This is the epic real estate investing podcast. And we're playing for your future. Stay tuned because the bell is about to ring. Are you ready? Let's go.

Hey, strap in. It's time for the Epic Real Estate Investing Show. We'll be your guides as we navigate the housing market, the landscape of creative financing strategies and everything you need to swap that office chair for a beach chair. If you're looking for some one-on-one help, meet us at rei-aise.com. Let's go, let's go, let's go, let's go, let's go, let's go, let's go. Let's go.

All right, welcome to the Epic Real Estate Investing Show, and I am here with a very special guest. Mercedes. How are you? Fantastic. Good. Yeah, we've been doing, what do you call it, multitasking, I guess. Multitasking or leveraging because we've been doing the YouTube channel and we've been playing the YouTube audios here, which we'll still continue to do.

But Mercedes and I, we decided we want to come back and be here live in the flesh and do it this way. So, hello yet. Hello. We do get a lot of requests from what we used to do back in the day. And I'm lucky enough to speak to a lot of the listeners. and they're like, hey, when are you bringing back the episodes that you and Matt do together? So let's give the people what they want, Mr. Terrio. Well, hopefully all of them want it.

I thought a really good idea or a thing that we could just kind of start with would be just the state of the market right now. Because to a lot of people, it's very different and there's a lot of uncertainty there. And, you know, depending on which news sources you're looking at, you could be thinking it's going to crash any second. And alternatively, you could think it's not. never going to crash. So Mercedes, you're a little bit more in the, I wouldn't say mainstream world, but you deal with your clients with banks and stuff like that. So you're looking at interest rates when I'm doing it. I'm more negotiating my rate with the sellers, more on the creative side. So we kind of have maybe a different view of what's going on. I guess what are you saying?

What are you seeing at cash flow savvy and with supply, with demand, with the funding? All of it. Got it. So I will say people are. freaked out, which is not abnormal. If you're not in the real estate market on a daily basis the way we are, you tend to listen to, you know, what the news puts out. And I, you know, I have to say that the news always is swayed one way or another, whether you choose to, you know, listen to CNN or Fox or whatever. You're going to get their perspective. I'm in the grind every single day and I see the market move, you know, based off of what the economy is doing. Everyone is affected by real estate. And so one thing I can say, Matt, is we got really, really spoiled and we didn't know it.

And when I mean spoiled about, you know, the market is going to do what the market is going to do, but we got spoiled, for example, interest rates. That is a big talk in our world right now. this interest rates are so high. And I speak to our clients and they're like, oh yeah, we're not going to buy because interest rates are so high. Well, so high relative to what? You know, when I started investing, Matt, interest rates were at like a 12, 13 percent. And so during COVID, we got really spoiled. Interest rates drop to 2 to 3 percent. And history repeats itself. And what I do know, that it is almost mathematically impossible in our lifetime for rates to drop down to 2% ever again in our lifetime. It's a mathematical uncertainty based off of what the world is doing, what the

economy is doing, just what inflation is doing. So when people talk about interest rates and they say, well, you know, call it right now, interest rates are at a 7%. I'd love a 7% considering I started when interest rates were at a 12%. Here's what I always tell our clients. Okay, let's just assume you buy a property at 7%. If the property is still cash flows and you're buying it right, next year when you increase your rents, your ROI is going to go up. But let's just assume next year the interest rates go up to 10%.

You're going to be so happy that you bought a property at 7%. So what I constantly tell my clients is when you buy a property, let's look at the other components of what the property does for you. You know, there's amortization, there's appreciation, there's depreciation, and of course there's cash flow, but let's talk about the other things that also benefit you. So that's one thing I hear a lot of talk about on a regular basis. I also know that there is a shortage of inventory. And we can talk about why this shortage exists currently. But you know, Matt, God isn't making any more land. And our population is growing incrementally in such a manner that in 10 years,

there is not going to be enough housing for the population that's being born. So, ooh, I can write a book about that. So that's what I'm constantly hearing. Inventory is super limited right now. We can talk as to why it's limited and why it's going to continue to be limited in the near future. Just because, you know, I have people sitting in my queue waiting for interest rates to get dropped. When they're passing up on great opportunities because they're so worried about the interest rates, they don't give a second thought about the limited inventory.

So that's what I'm seeing. What are you seeing? You're on the negotiated side of it. Yeah, I mean, I kind of create my own economy when I'm dealing with the sellers directly because everything is negotiable when you get to work that way. But as I'm always looking for new content for the YouTube channel and indirectly, I guess, for here too now, I do a lot of research. I do a lot of reading.

I pay a lot of attention to what other. people are saying. And it's interesting, and you'd said it like, you, what people hear on the news is one thing. And whether that's Fox or CNN, when it comes to real estate or the economics, I don't think it matters too much between which source you get, but just the fact that it's mainstream media. And they really look at the retail side of things. And they look at in broad generalizations with just big, giant brushes. And they just paint this whole big picture of like, oh, the interest rates went up and no one's buying sales are. are low again and have dropped a couple months in a row. It must be because nobody can afford the

properties, right? And that's the conclusion that's being drawn everywhere. And it's not necessarily true. And I'll talk about it in a sec, but that's like one indicator of people really don't understand real estate. I mean, that's our mainstream news source and they don't really get it. And just a couple other examples, and I won't beat up on the news, but, you know, Trump is on trial for his fraudulent, the civil fraudulent case on how he overvalued his property. to inspire the banks, I guess, to give him loans against it. So the higher that he evaluated the properties, the more of the money that he could borrow against it. And the judge, very smart person, right, is a Supreme Court judge in New York, very accomplished.

And I'm just removing all the politics out of this completely. I'm talking about just the real estate dynamics is that for that portion of the trial so far, the judge found Trump guilty of over-evaluating his properties. And maybe he did. But the part I noticed was what he used as justification was he looked, the judge looked at the tax assessor's number. Oh my goodness. And if you're in real estate, you know that's not a number to look at. That only really counts on the day that you actually purchased the property.

Right. And if I don't know how long Trump has owned that, but he said his golf resort was worth a couple hundred million dollars. And the tax assessment said 18 million. Oh, wow. So it's like 10% of what it was. And so that just shows you like smart people. don't know what they're talking about when it comes to real estate unless they're really into it. And it might be another incentives for him to rule that way. Who knows? But then I'll give

you a third example, which I just saw this morning. I was watching this guy's YouTube channel. I've never watched him before. He's not a real estate guy. He looks like he spent a lot of his time as a Facebook engineer for a while and he was a Google engineer for a while. But he released a video on how he's noticing that the market is crashing. And so I was like, it caught my attention. I didn't recognize him and he had a really good thumbnail. So I clicked and watched. And really smart guy. And he went through all of this analysis.

And I mean, he's successful and very intelligent. And even he was like missing the mark on a bunch of stuff. Right. So he said, look, sales are down. So his conclusion is that the market is crashing because sales are down. And interest rates are up. So his conclusion is sales are down because no one can afford their properties. And then he went over and looked at the foreclosure.

Right. So the foreclosure is up by 28%. Yeah. But I was just like, well, yeah, but it's still lower than it was before COVID. And it's 28% of a very small number, right? And so he's this very smart person. So that's three different people, right? We have the news. We have the Supreme Court judge.

We have this guy who's, you know, Mr. Engineer. And they're all looking at this data. And they're just coming to conclusions that are incomplete. Yeah. The information and the conclusions, they're relative because they're comparing it to what? And when it comes to real estate, when you compare something, you absolutely have to compare apples to apples. And, you know, this gentleman, I know who you're talking about, but wasn't doing that. And same thing goes with the judge that ruled using the tax assessor.

I mean, we all know that the tax assessor doesn't get assessed every year. There are some markets that go fine years without assessing it because they don't have that market doesn't have the capacity to assess taxes every single year the way that we should. So again, it's all relative and there's always a point of comparison. But when we compare, we have to truly compare what's transpiring at the moment. And I'm going to use an appraisal for that matter. Like, an appraisal is probably the most valid conclusion to the value of a property because an appraisal can only go back to 90 days of a recent sale of a current market within a certain

radius in a specific area. So it blows my mind with this judge using tax assessor records that are potentially, I don't know, five years old, could be more, could be less. But how is the tax, the land going to determine the value of an asset? It just blows my mind. Going back to the comparison of relativity and like to like. So oftentimes we miss the mark, and especially in our case, you know, we're investors and we don't look at the retail market often. I mean, we use it for comparables to kind of see if values are there, to see how things are moving. But again, we use a relative scale based off of what's transpiring at that particular moment in time. Yeah. So you're right. We're not.

not on the retail market with most respects. We're all investors. We're not purchasing our home or we're going to be living in. And so that takes a very different thought process and decision process on which house you're actually going to purchase. When you're purchasing an investment, it's, does it pay you more than it costs you? Yeah. That's really the only question. So if an interest rate goes to 8%, well, fine, but does it pay me more than it costs me to pay that interest, right? So that's really how we look at it as investors. Our whole goal is to make money. So are we making money with this? That's going to tell us if it's a good deal or not. And if we are making money, now is it enough for the amount

of time that we're going to be putting it? So there's just different ways to look at stuff. And I ran through those three examples and I don't think anybody's lying. I think everything that they said was accurate, especially this engineer guy because he had all kinds of charts and graphs and everything. But just the conclusion that you can draw from it can be, inaccurate or incomplete. And you kind of mentioned this earlier when we're talking about the inventory and how inventory is low. Yeah. And the question is like why and what does that actually mean? You know, when inventory is low, whether we're talking about houses or we're talking about potatoes. Yeah. If inventory is low, what does that do to prices? It drives it up. Right.

Right. So when the supply is low, prices go up. And this is why we haven't seen prices really drive. It just came out. Today is the first, as we're recording this, it just came out. Six months in a row, the median price and across the country has gone up. Yeah. But sales are down. Yes, the sales activity is down because there's nothing to buy. Exactly. So that's a different conclusion that you could draw is that, well, the supply is really low. That's why the prices continue to go up. Yeah. Well, nobody can afford a house. I was like, well, somebody's affording the houses. Yeah. Just because you can't, doesn't mean, and everybody that you know, as you know, The node can't afford the house doesn't mean that there's not money out there because there are more people than houses and it's going to be that way for a very, very long time. We have to go through record construction building to catch up and normalize the market. For sure, for sure. I mean, I could totally see that just with cash flow savvy. I mean, I have people in the queue. And, you know, there was a time where it was very easily you would see 10 to 15 properties a week that became available, which meant we bought the house, we fixed it up, we put tenants in the property.

property and then we presented it to the people in our queue that were interested in buying a cash flow turnkey property for their portfolio. So easily 15 properties a week. In today's market, maybe you'll see three to five properties and they get zapped up relatively quickly because they haven't seen 15 properties like they used to back in the day. Right. So no, you are absolutely right in the regards to inventory is low just because of what the market is doing. So that's like the lay of the land, so to speak. So what do you do now with that information? Right.

So we could look at, I'm of the mindset and not because this is what we do for a living, just because I look at the data, I see what the numbers are doing. And I think you have to buy. And here's a couple of reasons why I think right now is important. One, the Fed is already given indicators that they're going to pause. cause the interest rate hikes. I know we have an election coming up. I would imagine we're going to see those come down even a little bit more.

And if prices are going up at the current interest rates that they're doing right now, when they start bringing these rates back, like, when we get down to a six, people are going to be celebrating like, that's amazing when just four months ago, six percent was, oh, my God, I can't believe they're so high. And that's going to cause the inventory to start being gobbled up again, the inventory that's left. So if we kind of can conclude that, then that makes now a really good time to buy. If we're wrong, look how much of a genius you were by buying when their interest rates were low. Yeah. If you look at the overall market, it's, I think if you don't get into some real estate,

it's not going to get any easier. For sure. Is what I'm thinking. I'm like, even us. I mean, like, well, should we get some more? Yeah. Because when the rates come down and these prices go up. that's going to lift.

What's the expression? The rising tide lifts all boats. So you want a lot of boats. Yeah, sure. You want to be able to ride that up and that's the opportunity that's before us right now. There's just a thing. I come across so much random stuff in my research for my content. The Black Rock, I don't know, the big fund, one that basically owns the world.

Yeah, right. They just opened up a new fund and raised $100 billion or something, to buy more residential real estate. Yeah, yeah. And they have a prediction by 2030 that they will own 60% of all single family houses. Yeah. So they're not stopping. So if you want to get one, you better get one.

If you want 10, you better get them now because it's just not going to get any easier. And, you know, real estate, as we always say, it's the final frontier or the average person has a legitimate shock at creating real wealth. And it's probably no better time right than right now. You know, just the administration. says our new administration has been in place, 10 million people now have crossed the border. Oh, wow. So that's 10 million more people that are going to need a roof over their head than what we already have and we were already at a deficit.

So just basic supply and demand, and it's like I said, whether it's houses or potatoes or cars or apples, whatever. Yeah. If the demand is high and the supply is low, the prices can only go one direction. And if these interest rates tick just a little bit down, it's going to induce another buying frenzy. Yeah. Let me tap on that for a moment when we talk about, you know, you have to buy. I just see it, you know, with our turnkey operation, we always tell our clients we will place a tenant within 30 days. We are placing a tenant within seven days because there aren't enough rentals available for people in the market.

So by the time that you choose a property and close it, for the most part, the property is already tenet. That now our property management teams have a waiting list of tenants because we don't have enough inventory. So that's a reason to buy. But that just makes me think about during COVID. There was only three businesses that were allowed to stay open. It was food supplies, so supermarkets, restaurants, you know, for takeout. there was hospitals and housing. And when I mean housing, I mean, the government said, you don't have to play your rent. You know, they will work with you. Now, luckily, we didn't have

the problem with that. But housing, I mean, it's a requirement to live. Like, everyone needs a roof over their head. So, yes, what do you want to buy? You want to buy the things that people cannot live without. And hell, if it can make you money, buy $2,000. Buy $10. 10 if you can. And this is why, you know, the government is so great with Freddie and Fannie. The government allows you to buy up to 10 properties with only 20% down. I mean, just think about that, Matt. You can borrow money to buy a house up to 80%, generally speaking, if you qualify. All you have to do is put 20% down and the government lends you 80% of it for 30 years at an interest rate of call it seven and a half at worst. I mean, that's not rocket science. If we do the math and you are buying

something that the world needs that they cannot live without, like, why would you not buy 25 of them if you can? Right. So anyways, you talked about that. And then you talked about the interest rate as well. Okay, let's just assume it's, you know, seven to eight percent today. Yeah. If it drops to that six percent, then you can always refinance at that six. percent. But if it goes up to 12 percent, man, you'll be so happy that you locked it in at that 8 percent. So yeah, so much to say about that. I don't want to be, I imagine someone listening to this right now would be thinking, well, we're about to go into World War III. I don't forget about Ukraine, which seems that no one's talking about Ukraine anymore. They're all talking about the Israel

conflict. And so that we have the global situation brewing for the last couple years because of inflation, everyone was a bunch talking about the purchasing power of the dollar and the fear that we could lose our reserve currency status or a portion of it. I mean, there's other things going on that could have an impact well above what the Fed does and interest rates do and what our supply and demand of housing looks like. But I always think back where a friend of mine, a really good friend of mine, he went over to Russia. And this was, I don't know what, 15 years ago, 16 years ago, to talk about real estate.

And stuff. I didn't even know anything. I didn't. I'm so bad with my foreign affairs. I had no idea you'd even own a house in Russia. I thought you weren't allowed to. That's back in the day, man. I guess so. But apparently you can. And he came back and he was just, and you know, one of the most enlightening things that I got that when I went over and came back and just kind of realized, like, wow, I've always thought that real estate is a good investment, but there was always like these other factors that could make it not a good investment. But even with the collapse, of the Soviet Union. The only people that pulled through

were property owners and essential business owners. Those are the only people. Everybody else got destroyed and suffered. Now, it wasn't easy for them, but they pulled through and they survived.

So by owning a house or real estate or this property, a basic essential need for a human being, if everything hits the fan and you're an owner of that, at least you got something when everything else gets wiped out.

This is true. This is an asset. that goes up and down just with time. But history repeats itself. And, you know, for the most part, real estate appreciates. And if you don't believe me, just go back at the history books. Yeah. So, you sort of bought that, I'd say in this right now,

because people that purchased their properties, like in 2006 at the very, very peak of the market. And this got obliterated in the following years, right? It just came crashing down as one of our worst crashes ever in history. Well, even if you bought there and didn't sell, your house would be worth, twice as much today than it was when you bought it at the worst time in history to buy a house. Absolutely. So, yeah. We didn't really have a format for today.

I just wanted to talk about the market. I didn't know which direction this was going to go, but we'll be back and we'll have a little bit more of a framework and have some actionable stuff that sounded a little bit more like a commercial for real estate. But you've getting enough negativity out there. I think it's good to have a balance and have a different perspective on it because it's not all bad. we wouldn't be in our sixth month in a row of prices continuing to go up. It's like, when is this going to start to reverse? With the supply and demand and such an imbalance as it is,

it's going to take a whole lot for it to reverse. And right now, I don't know exactly what that would be or if it's him. Yeah. Well, one of the reasons you and I decided to have this conversation, you're actually listening to us, and this is a lot of the conversations that Matt and I have at home. Very romantic, yeah. And where our son gets to hear,

you know, everything that's going on in the market. So, but I mean, we do want to share a different perspective, but more so just enlighten you so that you could figure out what is going to be the perspective that is going to be a better fit for you. And so you can do your own research. You know, yeah, Matt and Mercedes, we've done our thing and it works for us. And our goal is just to educate you as we can so that you can decide what's going to be a fit for you, your life, and your family. Just to make, when you make these important decisions about your financial future, about your finances, it's just important to have all of the information and not take someone's word for it

that has incomplete information or has all the information and might be drawing an inaccurate or incomplete conclusion from it, which could really be harmful for you in the future based on, I guess, what we do and what we believe here. Yeah, for sure. For sure. All right, Matt, we don't want to banter for too long because we could literally sit here and talk for another hour, but I promise next week we will come back just with another, you know, inside of the market perspective and we'll bring on different topics just to enlighten you of what's

happening in the world of real estate, real estate investing, creating financial freedom for your life, creating wealth. Who knows? Maybe you want to buy a house so that you can pay for your daughter's wedding or your, you know, son's education when he goes to college in 10 years. We'll dive into all of those hot topics. Trust me, I have these conversations on a regular basis when people reach out to me to have a conversation about building their portfolio. One thing I want to talk about is I think we need a name for our listeners, Matt. You know, you have the Swifties out there. Taylor Swift right now seems to be all the rage. And then you have the, you know, the followers of different podcasts for, you know, there's a podcast out there called

Trading Secrets and they have their followers called the Money Market or, no, the Money Mafia. So I don't know. I think that we should come up with a, name for our listeners. How do you suggest that we do that? Well, you were telling me the story about that other podcast that did it. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. How did they do it? How did they do it? You know what? They asked for suggestions from you, the listeners. So why don't we do this? Why don't you give us a review? Give us a five-star review. Tell us what you liked best about this podcast, either generally or our episode today and then give us a suggestion of a name a five-star review a suggestion of the name of what you guys would like to be called i don't know maybe we call you the epic urs or the epic followers

who knows um whatever it is that we will choose a winner we will announce it on the air and the winner will not only get an autograph signed book by of yours by mr matt terrio the book called epic freedom but we'll also send you an Amazon gift card to thank you for your creativeness. How do you like that? Sounds good to me. Fantastic. All right, so that's signing off. I guess we've got to reestablish our sign-off signature, whatever that maybe.

But we'll just cut it off here and we'll see you next episode. See you next week. Bye-bye. We'll be back with more right after this. Boarding for flight 246 to Toronto is delayed 50 minutes. What? Sounds like Ojo time. Play Ojo.

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chance you know someone else who would. And when their name comes to mind, please share it with them and ask them to click the subscribe button when they get here and I'll take great care of them. God loves you and so do I. Health, peace, blessings, and success to you. I'm Matt Terrio. Living the dream. Yeah, yeah, we got the cash flow. You didn't know home for us. We got the cash flow. This podcast is a part of the C-Suite Radio Network. For more top business podcasts, visit c-sweetradio.com. Thank you.