Epic Real Estate Investing - Fake Crash. Real Shortage. Watch What Happens Next... | 1485

Episode Date: May 9, 2025

This episode addresses the crucial issue of the housing shortage in America, highlighting a deficit of 7.1 million affordable homes. Despite regional variations where some areas see rising inventory and price drops, a national housing crisis persists primarily due to a misalignment in the types of homes available. The episode uses data from multiple sources to debunk myths about a looming market crash, the impact of Boomer properties, and the role of institutional investors. It advises buyers and investors to focus on affordability and regional opportunities while warning that waiting for a market crash might lead to missed opportunities. Get the full source doc with every fact checked (137 Sources): https://getliner.com/search/s/2269348/t/84003206?msg-entry-type=main Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This is Terio Media. Hey, strap in. It's time for the epic real estate investing show. We'll be your guides as we navigate the housing market, the landscape of creative financing strategies, and everything you need to swap that office chair for a beach chair. If you're looking for some one-on-one help, meet us at rei-aise.com. Let's go, let's go, let's go, let's go, let's go, let's go.

Let's go. 7.1 million. That's how many homes in America is short right now. And if you've already got a liar loaded in the comments ready to post, you're going to love this. Bloomberg just called it last week. The housing shortage is getting worse. And Peter Ekwin, 3240 is not the only person who feels this way. Fake news. There's no shortage, L.O.L. I'm in Florida watching inventory climb and prices drop every day. There is no housing shortage. That is a lot. There's a bunch more, but you get the picture. And look, I don't blame you. If you're only watching the news today, it might look like housing is crashing and there's plenty for sale. But zoom out, because this isn't a crash. It's a setup. And most people are standing right in front of it.

These comments, real people, really pissed off. And honestly, they're right. Inventory is rising in some places. Builders are sweating it out in some places. Homes are sitting in some places. That's what you see if you're only focused on today. But I'm not looking at today. I'm looking at tomorrow, the next decade, and that changes everything.

In the next three minutes, I'm going to show you why everyone shouting fake shortage today might be desperately hunting for homes tomorrow and why waiting for the crash could cost you everything. Let's start by clearing this up. Just because your neighborhood has listings sitting doesn't mean the country has too many home. In fact, what we have is a surplus of the wrong stuff, wrong price, wrong location, wrong fit for real buyers. So at the moment, it isn't technically a housing shortage. It's a Tesla dealership in a world begging for Toyotas. Here, let's look at the numbers, and I'll pin all 137

sources for you in the comments so you know that I didn't make them up. In March 2025, there were 119,000 unsold, completed new single-family homes. That's the highest since July of 2009. But here's what actually matters. What no one's talking about, according to the National Low-Income Housing Coalition, we're short 7.1 million affordable units nationwide. And only 35 affordable homes exist for every 100 low-income renters.

Half of all renters in 2022 were cost-burned. paying more than 30% of their income just to have a roof. This isn't just about ownership. It's about having a place to live, period. Ask yourself, does your uncle's empty five-bedroom vacation home help a family that needs a two-bedroom apartment? Ask because it's counted as a vacant home, but is it available for purchase?

Another thing, there's no such thing as the housing market. There are regional differences, and they are massive. In Tampa, for example, inventory jumped 150, In Phoenix and parts of the Sunbelt, builders are offering 13% incentives just to get homes off the books. But in Chicago and the Midwest, we've got just 3.4 months of supply and bidding wars are back. And in coastal California and the northeast, still tight as ever. You can't look at one city and declare a national trend. That's like saying because it's sunny in Miami, it must be in Montana too.

Builders are building, but mostly in the south. and in overbuilt pandemic boom towns like Tampa and San Antonio. They're not building everywhere, though. And prices are cooling in some markets, but not because people don't want them, because we don't need them, because mortgage rates and inflation have pushed them out of reach for the average family. And those new homes? The median new home price in March was $403,600.

That's not affordable housing. And let's address foreclosures, because I hear that constantly. wait for the wave of foreclosures, then I'll buy. They're not coming because here's the deal. The vast majority of homeowners today have 30-year fixed mortgages at 3 to 4%. They have record levels of equity. 62% of homeowners are locked into sub 4% mortgages. That's not inventory. That's concrete. They'd be insane to sell and jump into a 7% rate. They'd double their payment for a lateral move. This isn't 2008. People aren't walking away. from homes. They're sitting on them like gold. And the much-hyped VA foreclosure surge,

it's real, but it's tiny. It's a policy shift, not a market shift. It's only news because they knew you'd click on it. Foreclosures aren't going to flood the market. If anything, they might create some isolated opportunities here and there, not a nationwide reset. Right now, betting your future on massive foreclosures, it's like planning your retirement around winning the lottery. So where are all the houses going to come from then? The boomers, right? When they're they die, they're going to flood the market with home. That's in the news quite a bit. And another argument that I hear constantly, boomers are going to flood the market with homes. But let's look at the actual numbers. Only 250,000 units per year will come available from boomer deaths, according to

the MBA projection. Forty-three percent of boomers say they're never going to sell. I mean, why would they? Their homes are paid off or their rates are locked in. They're passing the houses onto their kids, not the open market, which means the inventory never hits Zillow. It just vanishes from circulation. Meanwhile, Harvard's Joint Center of Housing Studies project 8.6 million new U.S. households will form between 2025 and 2035. That's 860,000 new households every year.

So if the boomers kids sold all 250,000 of those homes upon inheriting them, there are still 860,000 new households needing homes each year. That math don't math. Even if supply rises this year or next, It doesn't erase a decade of underbuilding between 2008-2018. And demand? It's changing faster than you realize. Millennials are at peak buying age right now.

Gen Z is aging into home buying already. Immigration is increasing. Legal immigration has been on an upward trend for a while, and it's not stopping. These shifts mean we'll need more starter homes, more dense housing, and more flexible financing. So you still think there's no shortage? Wait, there's more. What many are missing is the increasing role of institutional investors. The video that I made last week is what inspired this one.

These buyers aren't slowing down. They're actually accelerating purchases during market wobbles. And you've got to ask yourself, if there's even a chance of a crash coming, why are they buying as much affordable housing as they possibly can? When big money sees temporary softening, they don't panic. They double down.

While you're on the sidelines waiting for the crash, Wall Street's buying it up. This removes even more homes from the available supply that individual families can access. The keyboard warriors think they're being smart, waiting for prices to drop, while the big money is buying so much that they won't drop. Now, in the comments, I already know what's coming, so let's knock them out. It's not a shortage. It's an affordability crisis, and if that's what you're thinking, you're right.

And that is the shortage. Builders stack luxury homes. Meanwhile, there are only 35 affordable units for every 100 renters who need them. It's not about the total number of homes. It's about what people can actually live in. Yeah, but there are 16 million vacant homes. What shortage? Yeah, and 20% are second homes or investments.

Many are in dead zones with no jobs. Others are literal tear downs. I mean, show me a habitable, affordable home people actually want. Then we'll talk. Yeah, but my city, it's flooded with listing. Congrats. You live in the sunbelt. Regional differences matter,

and what's happening in Florida isn't happening in Chicago. But boomers are going to be. flood the market when they die. I mean, we covered that, but someone's still going to post it. Even if every coffin came with a closing statement, it's not enough. And finally, for the econ nerds, and I would include myself in this group, when supply is low, prices rise, always. Beanie babies, $10,000 produced, $5.000.

$100 left, $5,000. Homes, $1.3 million listings versus $8.6 million new households. Builders could dump every unsold home tomorrow. and would still be short seven million home. Here's the part shortage deniers aren't considering if they even see it coming. If Trump pressures rates down, like he's hell-bent undoing,

and the Fed follows through, we'll get a flood of cheap mortgage money. Millions of sideline buyers will rush in. Inventory will vanish overnight, and the same people shouting, fake shortage today, will be caught in bidding wars tomorrow. Even if builders wanted to fix this shortage quickly,

they can't. Red tape, $100,000 lumber bills and zoning bottlenecks, keep the fix miles away. Supply can't ramp up overnight. So what does this mean for you? If you're waiting for a crash, you're going to be waiting for a long time while missing the opportunity right in front of you. If you're looking to buy, focus on affordability and location, not timing a bottom that might

never come that likely won't. If you're an investor, regional opportunities exist, even as national challenges persist, focus on cash flow, not banking on foreclosures. And for the record, it doesn't impact me whether you invest in real estate or not. I run this channel because years ago, someone shared all of this wisdom with me, and I'm forever grateful, and I've been paying it forward here ever since to those who want it. If you don't want it, that's fine. I'm not here to make you feel good.

I'm not here to win an argument. I'm here so you don't get blindsided. I'm here to win the next decade. And if you want the same, subscribe. That's what we do here. Share your thoughts with Bloomberg, the Census Bureau, Pew Research, Housing Wire, Bank rate, NPR, Yahoo, the New York Post, the Federal Reserve, Wall Street Journal, PBS, CBS, NBC, ABC, the places that all reported this information first. All 137 sources are pinned in the

comments because if I'm wrong, it cost you 10 minutes. But if I'm right, it'll cost you 10 years. And by then, you'll be bidding against Wall Street for your own starter home. The housing shortage, it's real, but you don't have to agree with me, but you do have to decide. And continuing to wait, that's a decision. I'll see you next time. Take care. And that wraps up the epic show. If you found this episode valuable, who else do you know that might too? There's a really good chance you know someone else who would.

And when their name comes to mind, please share it with them and ask them to click the subscribe button when they get here and I'll take great care of them. God loves you, and so do I. Health, peace, blessings, and success to you. I'm Matt Terrio. Living the dream. Yeah, yeah, we got the cash flow You didn't know home boy, we got the cash flow

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