Epic Real Estate Investing - Is It Time to Sell Your Real Estate? | 1178

Episode Date: February 10, 2022

In today's show, Matt takes a look at the recent developments in the overall market and what it means for your real estate investments. More specifically, he reveals if it is the right time to sell your real estate. However, before that, Mr. Theriault kicks off the show discussing financial freedom and the ways you can acquire it for yourself! Let's go! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This is Terio Media. On today's show, I want to take a look at the recent developments in the real estate market, the overall market, actually, and what it means for your real estate investments, is it time to really think about selling your real estate? I don't know. We're going to dive deep into that, and I'll let you be the judge. But let's kick off the show with the subject of financial freedom, specifically how to get it for yourself. Let's take a look.

You ready? Let's go. Welcome to the all-new, Epic Real Estate Investing Show, the longest running real estate investing podcast on the interwebs, your source for housing market updates, creative investing strategies, and everything else you need to retire early. Some audio may be pulled from our weekly videos

and may require visual support. To get the full premium experience, check out Epic Real Estate's YouTube channel, EpicR-E-I.TV. If you want to make money in real estate, Sit tight and stay tuned. If you want to go far, share this with a friend. If you want to go fast, go to r-e-i-a-ease.com. Here's Matt.

How to get financial freedom. I mean, this is a mystery for most because most people weren't raised by financially free parents. So the thing is, people got to turn to another resource to learn how to do it for themselves. The great news is it's much easier than most people think. You have to first make a little bit of shift in your mindset in the way that you think about freedom, the way you think about money. And second, you just have to follow that new thinking up with some simple actions. And I'm going to let you in on right now what there is to do.

Let's go. I'm going to share with you very simply what financial freedom is, the steps that are necessary to get you there. And then if you decide this is something that you want to pursue and you want some additional help, stick around until the end and I'll show you how to get some. Financial freedom is having the freedom to do what you want, when you want, with whom you want without having a whole lot of concern about finances, without really worrying about the finances at all. Financial freedom is about taking that trip to Tahiti without worrying about coming into

the office. It's about buying that dream home and still having money left over to pursue your other interests. Some people equate financial freedom to being retired. Now, although being financially free is an important element to retirement, you don't need to wait till retirement to enjoy it. Depending on your unique situation, financial freedom could mean pursuing your passions and then having the ability to profit from them. It could mean not relying on your 9 to 5 and spending time with your kids or maybe supporting your spouse and the pursuit of their dream so they can build the business that they want. Financial freedom means connecting to your deepest values and being able to stick to them without concern of compromising them for money. Now, anyone can attain this, but most people won't. And there lies your real opportunity.

So, if you're ready to go for it, I've got six simple steps for you to follow. So step number one, you want to determine your number. And this is where most people get it wrong because they focus on the wrong number. See, most people are under the misconception that they think that they need to have a certain amount in the bank. They're focused on that number. What's the bank balance? That's a big mistake. You see, financial freedom is not about having a mountain of cash, but it's more about having a stream of cash flow.

landing in your mailbox every month. That's real freedom. So that's the number you want to focus on. The amount of money you want coming flowing into your mailbox each and every month with or without your direct involvement. So what's the magic number that would allow you to be financially free? What amount of money do you need coming in each month to cover all of your expenses? How much money is that on a monthly basis?

And when you're coming up with that number, you want to take into consideration all of the necessities. You want to take into account all of your expenses? the luxuries that you want to enjoy, and then you want to take into account enough of a buffer so that you're not really ever concerned about money at all. So when you come up with that number, go ahead and write that down, write down the number that makes sense for you and your lifestyle. Now that you got that number, let's do some simple math. How much passive income on a monthly basis are you receiving right now? How much cash flow is coming into your mailbox at this moment? Now, what's the difference between those two? Let's take the number that we came up

with first what you want it to be and then take that second number what it is right now and subtract that second number from the first. What are you left with? What's that number? So now what is there differently that you need to do or additionally that you need to do to bridge that gap? If you don't know, that's okay. You're not alone. Most people don't. And we actually have a name for that number. The difference between the amount of money that you want and the amount of money that you're receiving, that difference, we call that number ignorance tax. That's the monthly tax that you're paying for not knowing how to fix this. Don't worry though. Stick with me until the end and we'll start chipping away at that ignorance tax.

And ideally you'll walk away from here with a plan of how you can disappear it forever. Number two, address your financial values. And here's what I mean. What do you value more? Is it security or is it freedom? Most people will say freedom. But when you look at their actions, it actually says security. For example, Would you rather have enough passive income to pay for your lifestyle or would you rather be debt-free? Would you rather have enough passive income to finance your passions or would you rather live in a free and clear house? If you'd rather live free now, then why are you maxing out your 401k every month? If you're choosing all of the first options that I gave you, then you definitely do want financial freedom.

But if you're like most people, your actions are actually telling a very different story. If you're working each month to be debt-free, if you're making extra payments on your house to get it to free and clear as soon as possible, if you're maxing out that 401K, what you actually want, even if you don't think so, but subconsciously, you want the security. You'd rather have the security. And unfortunately, when it comes to the security, there's no such thing. For example, I was in the music business for 15 years and I was financially stable. I thought that was it. I thought that was my security. I had created a situation in my life where I was, I wasn't concerned with anything. I felt secure until technology came along, the digital downloads specifically, and disrupted all of that. And it wiped my security out. Or probably more commonly, something a little bit more relatable, what about the 80% of companies in the last 30 years that have eliminated their pension plans?

Those were people's career. They had security. They felt security in that pension. And now those pensions are no longer there. I don't have to tell you this. I don't need to explain this to you. is becoming pretty much common knowledge. There is no such thing as security. The world is changing way too fast and it's only picking up speed. The real point here is just check your values and make

sure that your actions aren't in alignment with them. Make sure what you're doing on a daily basis is actually what you value the most. Step three, get a hold of your finances. You know, just because you've got this new mindset doesn't mean all of your financial challenges are going to disappear. A good place to start is to check your frivolous spending habits. I mean, you know, you're just do you really need that 83rd pair of Air Jordans? I'm sorry, I'm probably more talking to myself right now. Or do you actually need that extra case of rare wine? Yeah, probably talking about myself there too.

But what's your Air Jordan? What's your wine? Is it clothes or is it watches? Is it cars? Or is it eating out? You know, we all have vices. And a lot of them are very, very expensive. So you've got to get yours in check.

That's a good place to start. Now when it comes to debt, consumer debt specifically, we got to get rid of that. We got to get rid of the high interest debt. We got to get rid of the variable interest debt. Get rid of that. Start moving some of your vice money towards your debt money and wipe that out. Use the snowball method to pay off your smallest balances first. And once those are paid off, take what you would have applied to that and now apply it

to the next biggest balance and keep that snowballing until that debt is gone. That's the fastest way to do it. Now, step four, create a short. short-term strategy for building your savings. And I call it a short-term strategy because it's not really saving. What you're doing is you're stashing. You're building capital to position yourself to launch your passive income streams. Further, achieving financial freedom is not going to happen overnight. So, you're going to need some additional reserves that you can handle when life throws, you know, those curveballs at us every once in a while. And then once you've gotten out of debt,

you're going to have even more money to put towards your savings to stash away, to support your passive income streams. Not only is having these reserves, this emergency fund, if you will, having that in place important for these financial emergencies, it's also important for your mindset. It's important for your mental well-being. When you have that financial cushion, it's easier to make good decisions, calculated decisions, prudent decisions, as opposed to those bad decisions that we've all made in the past that were really emotionally charged. We want to avoid making those again. Number five, you got to create the machine. Now it's time to start making that financial freedom a real reality.

And that's going to come as a result of that monthly cash flow we talked about earlier. And we want to make that monthly cash flow as passive as possible. And when it comes to monthly passive cash flow for the average person, nothing has been more successful for the average person than income producing real estate. Real estate has produced more wealth for more people than anything else on the planet. Now, real estate is cool and all, but I'm not in love with it. There's other things I would maybe rather do or spend most of my time on. But what I love about real estate is what it actually produces and what it has done for me,

what it's done for my family and what it's allowed me to do for my family and how I can help others and build my dreams and everything else that comes around it. I choose real estate because it's the best vehicle. It's the vehicle where the average person has the best shot at making financial freedom a reality for themselves. So a really simple place to start. If you're just getting started is to take advantage. of your FHA loan.

Now, this is a government-backed loan that's there to benefit first-time home buyers. It requires a very small down payment, like three and a half percent. It doesn't require a super credit score, so qualification is much, much easier. And that's a really good place for most people to start. And so you'll go ahead and you'll acquire that house. Now, based on those lending guidelines, you're going to be required to actually live in the house, but at least you've got your foot in the door. And now you have two options.

One, you could just kind of wait for a couple years, move out and upgrade to a new house and then use that one as an income property or rental. Or you could start right away creating income from the property by renting rooms out. It's another really great strategy to get started. Now, if you're not just getting started and you're looking for that next property and you'd like to go deeper in using creative financing and finding off-market properties and using other people's money to do it, you can take that step by going to epic. Breakthrough.com. That's where you're going to find all of my secrets of how I got started and how I continue to invest in real estate this day and how I've created my entire financial freedom using other people's money. Now, with all that said, real estate, it's not get rich quick. It is get rich quicker, though, than how most people go about it. So keep that

under perspective and that financial freedom that real estate promises, it can be yours too. Step number six, evaluate and adapt. So pay attention as you work through this. Take note of what's working and what's not. But before you jump to conclusions of what's not working, be patient. Give it a little bit of time before you decide it's not working and make too drastic of a change. You see, real estate, it works. It's worked for more people than anything else. So be patient with it. It works. It's a proven plan. You're looking at living proof. And I've been able to duplicate financial freedom results in thousands of students over the last decade. But some things just do not work or don't work as well as they should and then it may be

time to actually make some adaptions and to make some modifications. It's okay to change the approach. Just don't change the goal. So if you'd like some help with this and potentially work together one-on-one, go to r-eai-a-a-a-a-com, answer a few short questions, and then pick a time for us to jump on the phone and brainstorm some ideas about what your journey to financial freedom would best look like. Please stand by. We've got overhead to pay. We'll be right back. At Desjardin, we speak business. We speak startup funding and comprehensive game plans.

We've mastered made-to-measure growth and expansion advice, and we can talk your ear-off about transferring your business when the time comes. Because at Desjardin business, we speak the same language you do. Business. So join the more than 400,000 Canadian entrepreneurs who already count on us, and contact Desjardin today. We'd love to talk, business. Good things may come to those who wait, but better things come to those who go out and get them.

Let's get it. Back to the show. Today I want to give you a housing market update and let you know whether or not it's time to finally sell your real estate. Because you probably know, if you've been around here at all, for any length of time, you know that I am at buy and hold forever. It's my favorite holding period is forever. But maybe it's time to sell. Who knows? You know, we've had an amazing ride over the last couple years, actually, the last decade, I guess,

maybe even 14 or 15 years. But is it time to actually cash out your profits now? That's the big question. Okay? So I'm going to let you know what I think. But first, I just wanted to take you through and let's look at the market. Let's look at and see what the reminder sells what the market is actually doing because I've made a lot of predictions over the last couple of year or so.

And I don't know if they've changed it all, but I want to kind of go through this. So you kind of have some context as to where we are. And this is from a slide presentation I just did recently for an advanced group of my students to kind of give them an idea of how to look at the market and what to look at and how to make their own decisions. So it really comes down to supply and demand. That's pretty much what runs the market regardless of what the product or the service is, right? So if the supply is high, prices are low.

Supply is low, prices are high. And then conversely, if demand is high, prices are high. If demand is low, prices are low. So supply and demand, they just kind of work together like this. And so let's look at the supply. I mean, when it comes to supply, we're talking about housing, right? So houses represents the supply. And so if we look at the history here, yeah, we're at an all-time low.

Supply is really low. And I think we're going to be here for a while. This is from Forbes that they released a while back about the middle of last year. It says the housing shortage is worse than ever and will take a decade of record construction to fix. But if we look back right here at the peak of 2006, right there in the middle where the very peak of new homes being started being built. So that right there was the peak. And then you can see once the market crashed, new housing starts crashed right along with it, really low amount. where that was just 500,000 new housing starts a year then when it was over almost two and a half million, right?

So you can see that it slowly crept up over the years, but very, very slowly. And what this report here is saying that this peak right here at 2006, we needed to maintain that building rate all the way up until now to 2022 just for our market to be normal. And for us to fill that gap, it's going to take a decade to do so. So right off the bat, what that's telling me is we don't have enough houses. And it's going to be a while before we catch up and have enough houses because we're in a strong seller's market. And what that means when you're in a strong seller's market is when there's just, there's

more buyers in the market than there are houses available. And right now, there's not very much inventory. That's pretty much a national thing. and typically real estate is a local thing and you can't really say that. But nationally, the inventory is really suffering. There's just not enough houses for the people that we've got out looking to buy houses. And according to this report, we're not going to meet that demand for a very long time. But let's continue to look at supply.

The builder confidence is starting to increase. But it's still pretty cautious. And this is why right here. And even though the builder confidence seems like it's going up and we're ramping up to start building more houses, there's this that you've got to look at. This is from Bloomberg, building a lot of, the home in the U.S. has never been more expensive. So you can see there on the left, copper price is pretty much at an all-time high.

Cement and concrete to build housing is pretty much an all-time high. Lumber was at an all-time high. It's come back a little bit, but historically speaking, it's still significantly high. And so with the materials being so expensive, what that is saying is that they got to build more expensive houses because they have to be able to sell them for more. I mean, they wouldn't be very good builders if they sold houses. They paid for these expensive houses to be built, and then they sold them for less than what they were worth. That would be ridiculous.

And what they're finding is that it's a real challenge in that middle class type house between, say, you know, $300,000 and $500,000 houses, even up to $700,000 houses. To build those houses, they're getting to a point where they can't price them high enough to where it would actually make financial sense for the buyers. And so people, there's not building those houses. So what they're building more of are the luxury homes. So the luxury homes are being built, and that's where all of these materials are going, and that's where this builder confidence is really happening, is then, you know, your million-dollar plus homes, because only then at that price point can they actually pay for these rising costs. So that's the supply. So we've got this supply. We've been at this huge deficit for a really long time.

It's going to take a decade to catch up. And even though builder confidence is rising, it's not rising at the levels that we need, not to meet the demand that we have out there for the middle class average American. If we know the supply is low, we know that's going to support prices. So prices are going to continue to go up based on just the supply. Now let's look at the demand. And so the demand is represented by people, right? The population is continuing to grow, despite what you might hear, the type of slant that you'll hear from the news on, how the population growth is going.

Because percentage-wise, year-over-year, the population growth is falling. As you can see right here, it's represented by that orange line going down from left to right going down very sharply, really. This is like over what? Oh, this is like over the last 200, almost 300 years, right? So it's decreasing in percentage of growth. But as you can see, the blue line represented there going from left to right is still rising, and the projections here are that is not going to slow down.

So although the percentage of growth is declining very rapidly, the population growth, the number of people is increasing pretty rapidly. And the reason being is because if you took, say, we just looked at, say, I don't know, say 1960. And we were doing 19% was the year over year population growth. So that was 19% population growth at a number right around 180 million people in 1960. So if we go over to 2000, you know, we've dropped 6%. So in 40 years, our populations dropped 6% down to 13%. But see, that's 13% of 200, basically 275 million. So although the percentage dropped, it's still a larger number that 13% of 275 versus the 19% of 175.

Okay. So the population is continuing to grow. So the demand is growing. And when the demand goes up, what do we know about? that causes the price to go up as well. So these next 10 years ahead of us are going to be critical because it's when the millennials are going to be between the age of 30 to 39. And that's a very significant number because this is when people are buying their first home and when they're moving out of that first home because they've made a few bucks and they want to upgrade

and they're going into their second home. So the demand is going to be really big in the next 10 years. And if we kind of look at how the population is broken up per generation, you know, if we look at the millennials, the yellow number right there, that's 82.22 million people. Right there, if you go right to the peak and then go two bars to the right, that's right around the age of 31. And that 31 years old is a significant number because that's the average age of the first time home buyer. So we're not quite at the peak of the millennials hitting the age of 31, but over the next. after the next two, three, four years, the biggest portion of our population in the United States is going to be passing through first-time home buyer age.

And that's going to really drive the demand. There's going to be a whole lot of demand over the next few years. And if you look right after, I mean, the portion of the population doesn't decrease too much, and then you got Gen Z right there behind them, right there. You can see. So what that's saying is there are enough people walking the planet right now to support your real estate investing for the rest of your life. So the demand is already here.

It's built in. And then when we come up here, we already know that the supply is super, super low. So that's a formula or a recipe for consistent, steady growth. And this has been my position on real estate for so long that we are not going to experience a crash, at least not based on any of the fundamentals that I've shown you. But I've always talked about the one wild card, the one little factor variable we have to watch out for.

And that's going to be interest rates. So here's a snapshot of the historical 30-year mortgage rates. And you can see how the rates, over the last since 1983, it looks like where they hit their peak right around 18.5, 18.63%. They've continually fallen and fallen and fallen very steadily. And here we are right around, I guess, three and a half percent in today's market. And so that's what we really need to watch. So we've got to turn to current events. And the current events here should be very, very concerning.

So just last week, two weeks ago, January 26th, the Federal Reserve points to interest rate hikes coming in March. So the Federal Reserve on Wednesday provided the clearest hint yet that it could start raising interest rates as soon as March. So with inflation, well above 2%, and this is what's causing it, and a strong labor market, the committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the tax. target range for the federal funds rate. The central bank said in a statement that concluded its two-day meeting that week. And federal chairman Jerome Powell said asset purchases also are likely to halt in March. And the central bank released a paper outlined principles to start significantly reducing the bond holdings on its balance sheet without indicating a specific time frame. So we've known this is going to be coming, right? But we know what the inflation is done.

and it's kind of accelerating this. The administration and the Fed, they've got to get a hold of inflation. Right now, our 30-year-fix, as I'm recording this, the 30-year-fixed mortgage is 4.238%. Okay, so if we were to take this 4.238% and raise it, the rumor is there's a pretty good consensus that, as of that last Fed report,

that we're going to be raising the interest rates by 25 basis points. So that's a quarter of a percent. So if we have 4.23% here on a $300,000 loan amount, actually that would be, let's do 400. What would that do? Okay, so it's 4.22%. This is kind of pick a little bit more of a realistic number. Not too many $300,000 houses floating around anymore. I guess in the Midwest and the South you've got to change and something like that.

But if you're on either of the coast, you know, pickings are getting really slim. So 4.22, 4%. So if I come over here just to a calculator and we can see 4. point two percent. The mortgage payment for $400,000 loan amount is $1,061. So if we raise this, 25 basis points, that's going to take us to, what, 57. But it took us to $2,043. So pretty much almost $100, I don't know, $80 more per month. So if you're right on the brink, that one, that $400,000 house, well, this would be, that's a loan amount. So the $400,000, so 20% would be, Would that be a $500,000 house?

Yes. So that'd be a $500,000 house. We had to put some pressure on me with the math there. So a $500,000 house. So if your affordability, what you're approved for at the bank, was a $2,000 loan, right? So at the current interest rate, you can afford that loan for the bank.

But once we raise this basis points in March, you're not going to be approved for that same house. And so what that does is it brings, the demand for that price point down a bit. And we start bringing down the demand, and although we have the people, but their ability to buy starts being cut, it's going to cause prices to come down a little. So they kind of go hand in hand.

It's not a direct correlation, and it's not, well, it's somewhat is, but it doesn't happen immediately, right? The market's not going to crash in March, but there will be adjustments made. But here's something that you really need to be concerned with. And this doesn't concern me that much. it's normal and we're all kind of expecting it and I don't think there's any cause for alarm. But they are suggesting that there could be up to seven rate hikes this year.

So if they raise seven rate hikes a quarter percent, or excuse me, they raised the interest rates a quarter percent seven times. That could cause a significant impact, right? So here's one thing that we might be going to be really concerned about, though. There's a couple of things that are coming up. Or this just happened. The payroll shows surprisingly powerful. gain of 4 and 67,000 jobs in January despite the Omicron surge.

So they were only expecting right here, non-farm payrolls rose 467,000 in January, almost a half a million when they were only predicting 150,000. So that was huge. And so more people had jobs significantly more. And that feels like it could be a really good thing, right? Well, it is. I mean, we want more people to have jobs. We want people to return back to work.

So that's a great thing. But what that actually signals to Jerome Powell is that the market could be a little healthier than he thought. And it could possibly withstand higher interest rate hike in March. So not just 20, maybe 50 basis points of a whole half a percentage. So that's a big concern. And then, so what that would do to our mortgage rates, it took us. That would be another 82%. Don't comment if my math is off, but you're getting a point.

right. So that takes us up another, yeah, another $100. So that right there would now take that $500,000 house and change its monthly payment by $200. So that could be significant, that could have an impact directly on the housing market. And that could be something to cause us some concern. So prices are going to come down a little bit. So is this a reason to sell? I don't know. Let's keep looking at it. But with this job report is causing some fear of a 50 basis point.

Fed rate hike and what that says about the future of the stock market, obviously, but that's also going to directly impact the housing market. So that's something we want to really watch. But here's something else that's coming up this Thursday. Here we're on Tuesday, February 8th. And so just a couple days, there's a number that we're going to need to watch because that could almost cement this 50 basis point height. And that is the CPI.

And if you're listening to this on the podcast, that's actually probably happening today, the day that this is released. So the consumer price index rose or probably jumped 7.3% in January from a year ago. And that's the largest annual advance since early 1982. So when the CPI numbers come out on Thursday, a couple days from now, if we're 7.3% or higher, that's going to signal that inflation is really getting out of control. but the interest rates have always been the big variable, and we've been kind of spoiled for a really long time

as they come lower and lower and lower. So we want to look at that, or we want to really pay attention to the current events and what's happening and how that's going to impact our buying power and whether or not that factors into our decision to sell our properties or not. Okay, so here's something else that I want you to kind of look at, and that's what a lot of people, real estate investors,

aren't really, let me try and find the slide here real quick. So your year over year rent increases. So the prices of houses over the last several years have been rising pretty rapidly. But the rents really haven't. Not until just last year, the last 12 to 24 months have rents really started to catch, trying to catch up with the prices of real estate. So Houston, you can see, is up 24.3%. year over year, Santa Ana, California, 27%, Tucson, Arizona, 32.5%, Jacksonville, Florida, 35 and a half

percent. In Las Vegas, right here where I live, 42 percent year over year rent increase. So if you're a landlord, that was actually really good news. Now, you might not have felt it yet because you haven't had a lease renewal yet, but it's coming. And that can certainly offset any sort of interest rate hikes, right? And that would certainly stay, of increased mortgage payment, particularly if you have an adjustable mortgage on your property. Okay, so is it time to sell? I'm going to say, no, absolutely not. It is not time to sell.

But there are a few scenarios where I would say yes, and I'm going to give you those scenarios in just a second, but here's why I would not sell. Based on supply and demand, your real estate will become more and more valuable over time. And further, what most landlords don't realize is that as prices have risen, so have these rents. And as an income generating real estate investor, a cash flowing real estate investor, that's really important to be aware of. And if rates rise, the payments are going to rise, right? So fewer and fewer people will be able to afford to buy a house. And what that's going to do, it's going to drive the demand toward rentals likely even more and up and drive those rents up even further.

And you don't want to give up your income. You don't want to sell for cash and then not have a place to put it to maintain your income, particularly with inflation doing what it's doing to just eat up the value of that cash. So the value of your real estate is your hedge against inflation. And if you don't plan on selling it, who cares what happens to the price where the prices go up or down? What you really want to focus on is the income that your real estate is producing. And your rental income is what's going to support your lifestyle. But it also is a hedge against inflation.

Because as prices rise in the grocery store and prices rise at the gas pump, prices are also going to rise when it comes to rent, when it comes to where people are going to live. And if you are the landlord, that means you have control over that and you have control over your income. income as things become, or I would say as things become more expensive, but it really means as your dollar becomes less and less valuable, right? So you need to bring in more of those dollars to maintain the lifestyle that you experience right now. So when is it time to sell, though? Like I said, I'd say never, but there are some exceptions. But here's why I say never. If you go to, I don't know, if you ever find a real estate investor that's been in the business for 20 years or longer, if you go to the Ria meeting or a meetup group and you kind of see the old guy standing in the corner and looks like he's got some experience under his belt, go ask him.

You know, if you were to start all over again, what would you do differently? And without a doubt, almost every time you're going to get some form of this answer where they'll say, I wish I would have bought more and sold less. almost every real estate investor of 20 years or greater would have those same sentiments because they know that they would be in a better position today had they not sold as much as they did. And so you want to take this opportunity to learn from other people's mistakes, as Mark Twain said, because you won't be here to make them all on your own. So embrace that and understand that.

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