Epic Real Estate Investing - The Future of Real Estate Unveiled: Predictions and Pro Strategies | 1282

Episode Date: November 9, 2023

🎙️ Ready to revolutionize your real estate game? This episode of the Epic Real Estate Investing Podcast is not just a show; it's a game-changer that'll hit you harder than a heavyweight knockout! 🥊 First up, we're cracking the code on real estate success without the years of trial and error. Join us for an exclusive conversation with Epic client JR, who spills the beans on a game-changing strategy. Juggling a full-time job and a family, JR navigates the off-market real estate landscape for massive profits. It's a tale of triumph over tight budgets and rising home prices, and trust us, it's not your typical success story. Brace yourself as we unveil the secret weapon! This is the real estate wisdom you didn't know you needed! But wait, there's more! In segment two, Mercedes and Matt gaze into the crystal ball of real estate. They are dissecting predictions from financial giants Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley for the housing market in 2023 and 2024. Get ready for insights that'll have you strategizing like a seasoned pro, turning predictions into profit opportunities. And as if that's not thrilling enough, we've got a wild card for you – a contest for the ages! Join the hunt for the perfect name for our followers and grab the chance to shape the future of the Epic community. The power is in your hands, and we're spilling the details in this action-packed episode. So, are you ready to level up your real estate game? Hit play now and let the Epic Real Estate Investing Podcast be your guide to success! 🏡💼 P.S. Whenever you're ready to go deeper and further with your real estate investing, looking into my partner program to help you get your first deal might be the move... take the first step here for free 👉 https://epicearnwhileyoulearn.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This is Terio Media. Ladies and gents, brace yourselves for another episode of the Epic Real Estate Investing podcast that's about to hit harder than a heavyweight knockout. But first, let me ask you something. Do you want to crack the code on how to start investing in real estate without years of trial and error? If yes, you're in the right spot. In our first segment, I set down with Epic Client J.R., who revealed an exclusive strategy that allowed him to juggle a full-time job and family,

to buy and sell off-market real estate for big profits, Despite a tight budget and rising home prices, he's forging a path to success in real estate, and it's not what you'd expect. If I start investing from scratch, this would be my secret weapon. Tune in to discover the knockout punch for your real estate game, but that's not all. In segment two, Mercedes and I predict the future of real estate, dropping insights that'll have you strategizing like a seasoned pro. We are dissecting predictions raised by financial powerhouses. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley for the housing market in the years, 2020 and 2024.

And if that's not enough to get your heart pounding, we've thrown in a wild card, a contest for the ages. We are on the hunt for the name of our followers, and we're putting the power in your hands. Tune in and find out how you can enter the contest. Are you ready? Let's go. Hey, strap in. It's time for the epic real estate investing show.

We'll be your guides as we navigate the housing market, the landscape of creative financing strategies and everything you need to swap that office chair for a beach chair. If you're looking for some one-on-one help, meet us at rei-aise.com. Let's go, let's go, let's go, let's go, let's go, let's go, let's go. Let's go. From coast to coast, epic investors are doing the most. It's time for another epic field report.

There's no reason it should take four years to escape the rat race like it did for me, even though home prices are still moving upward despite the rising raids. Times are certainly different now compared to when I started. But if I had to start investing in real estate all over again from scratch, I'd do this, what my private client, JR, is doing. So if you're thinking that you've missed your window or you're balancing a full-time job or you're raising a family and you're on a tight budget or all of the above and you're still looking for your big breakthrough in your real estate investing, you're going to want to

listen to every word of this short interview with JR. Hey, JR. Thanks for hopping on to talk about your most recent. a deal all while working a nine to five. And I just learned this. You only have one hour a day for your real estate. So thanks for being here. Before we talk about the deal, what challenges in your life were you dealing with just prior to you and I working together? Well, if you want to say nine to five is a challenge, that was a challenge. My family just bought a home. I wish I would have met you before I bought the home. I just bought a home, sort of growing my family. It's that same route that everybody talks about, you know, working check to check. And I thought, okay, hey, I'll move up

the ranks and actually go into a city government entity, I'll be okay. I'll maybe differ from that, but it's still the same thing, check to check. And just wanted to get out of that rat race. What would it mean to you when you do get out of the rat race? Relief time and being with my kids for that's the main goal. You know, just like where I'm working at right now and where I live at, it's not too far radius. So sometimes that much time I try to go home just so get that extra time with him. My dad, he worked in the automotive field and I didn't see them too much and didn't want that. You know, you've been playing both right now,

in the meantime, the 9 to 5 and the real estate game. You've been playing it really effectively. What's been your secret sauce to making it work so well when others struggle so much? Do you have any idea? I was struggling too in the beginning, but just getting a game plan and stay consistent, trying to really squeeze everything productive in the cracks of my time,

even if I had to wake up earlier to skip trace and do all the stuff I need to do, in preparation to my hour where it's like go time, just really squeezing everything in there and it's being consistent with that. You know, life happens. I might want to sleep in or someone when the alarm clock goes. I always time to go to work instead of going,

or waking up earlier, but if I have the mistake consistent, that's helped a lot. I can see results because if I stay consistent for like weeks on by, the end dollar is greater. You said that hour that's go time. Do you have the same hour every day

and what happens in that hour? So what my day looks like is I wake up and I'm doing all the stuff that's like in preparation. I'm list stacking from different softwares. And then I'm skip tracing and I'm getting everything set. I got my numbers, addresses and all that stuff in the morning before work. And then I work, come to work and then lunch, my lunch hour, it's like campaign time.

Whichever one I choose to do it. I try to mix it up sometimes Monday through Friday. Sometimes Monday might be a calling and Tuesday might be, I'm just writing letters. What is they might be texting, texting, texting, texting. I actually implemented my two nephews. Part of my campaign, too, I'm trying to integrate them in there, but that's what it looks like. As far as go time and lunch hour, it's like production. Right.

You know, we've been working together, I don't know what, about a year now, I guess, and it started off kind of slow. But what was the turning point when you really started to think, hey, this could really work? I think it was my first deal. It's crazy that you guys said because, like, I think it was the weekend summit in Vegas. I went out there and you gave it with a child. I was like, hey, put yourself out there and write some stuff on social media. and I put, hey, I buy houses. But then, I think it was like on a Saturday, and I got a response.

And it happened so quick, I was so excited. I think I bumrosher office. Someone I said, like, hey, what I do that? So it works. And from that, you know, of course, it was on incubator that particular deal. But when actually that deal closed, it put a light switch on, hey, this works. So I tried a lot of things in life. I did the network working and stuff.

Everything under the sign. But like that, it's like, hey, this came out of nothing. This came off a post on social media. Well, let's talk about that because you've got a 9 to 5. You've got a family. You're a new homeowner. You're on a budget when it comes to putting everything together. How have you made real estate investing accessible even on that with all of those

kind of financial limitations? How have you been able to manage the budget and get the results? I just looked at what I was paying for before. I hate to say it, but a lot of those on clothes, a lot of it's on entertainment. And just things that once you break it down, like, okay, this is what I'm spending. If you get that final total number, you're like, wow. Like, really, so you can cut back some of that because this not really neat. It's more like wanted.

So I did that and then I've started implementing that budget into my real estate. It's not a big budget, but it is a budget. And you can do it like with zero or you can do it $1,000 a month or $10,000 a month. So let's walk through the deal from this week. How did you find it? So it was off of a mailing campaign, yellow letter, ready, put out there and it was like off a lien list. Actually, it was a stack list. I do maintenance on the side, and I was doing some maintenance, and my phone rang and the guy just

start pouring in all the information, like, hey, I got your letter. You said, you buy houses with any situation, any condition, started pouring the information out to me. So I got all the information, and I just, I set an appointment. So you found the deal by mailing a yellow letter, handwritten ink. Did you do that yourself, or did you do a service? No, I did myself. Okay. Me and my 50-year-old daughter, I'm kind of implementing them. Yeah, we just writing letters, hand had written. I've always found that Mercedes letters

always, we write the exact same thing on the letters, but she always gets a better response. I think the girly cursive actually gets a better response. My dog, she puts like a smiley face at the bottom. Perfect, yes. They said that increases a waitress's tips too when they put that on there. I heard about that.

Yeah. All right. So very simple, very basic, no magic there. Now you made the appointment, which is what you're supposed to do. And now you went to the property and now kind of lead me through up from that point until you got the contract signed.

So the guy's situation was like him and his wife. They were out of city investors. And the properties in Oakland, California, and that's my market, San Francisco's open, open Bay Area market. Properties in open. They invested into it. And they put, you know,

money into the renovation, everything. But the only thing they didn't do was they made it a two one, but they made it a four two bedroom, four bedrooms and two bath. The contractor did they hire, they didn't pull any permits. So all the renovation they did add-on wasn't permitted by the city. So they had renters in there and everything, about a year,

but when it came time to sell it, you know, they put it on the market, they got the renters out, they put it on the market, FHA buyer, a person doesn't want to live in there, did their inspections to loan the money to the person. They said, hey, this is not a two-one, this actually four-two. You can't lend you the money on this. So with that happened, the sellers, what they did, they would correct everything. So they went to the city to try to correct it. The city gave restructure what to do in the timeline. They didn't satisfy that. timeline. So Citi Ding them with the lien. So that was the distress for the seller. Initially, I was going in as a cash offer. I got the contract signed. I walked the property,

talk with the seller. He explained everything I just did. And after that, I was thinking, okay, okay, this could be a cash offer. So I offered a cash offer. And he signed the agreement. But when we put it out in the market, what he owed on the mortgage cash investors, they needed to come in lower than that. So it turned out it couldn't be, you know, a cash offer because he owed her X amount of money. But cash buyers, they need to be at this point to make it the actual deal. So that was a long period of time. And then I think that's when I asked you for your help.

And you assisted me on getting it into a creative deal where we can do a subject to. And we got under contract with that. And it's still like cash buyers like, no, I don't want to deal with the city because this city has a bad reputation of just making it harder for people. But I thought about it, like, you know, instead of marketing it out to cash buyers, Let's work out the people that's going to actually live in it. And that's how I actually got the deal.

I started marketing to people that's going to meet homestead buyers. And that actually got me over the finish line with that. Fantastic. All right, cool. So how did you market to them? What was your strategy there? I didn't want to put it on, I guess I should say in my list, like Zillos and the Redfinns. I didn't want to do that.

So I just, I did, again, social media. Like I went to the Facebook. So I went to the Craigslist. And then actually I JV with somebody. They were pushing it out to their network. And it was doing the same thing, like through Facebook marketplace, hey, why this, putting that out there that, hey, you want to live in this because of X, Y, Z is going on its property. So this will be a good maybe house hack for someone. And later on the line, they can take care of that stuff with the city.

So that's how we got a opposite buyer. They took ownership subject to. Yeah. Is that right? Yep. Perfect. So now it's between them and the seller. They're making payments on the existing mortgage.

Did they pay anything additional to the seller? The seller, I guess you got a reality check like, hey, The only way I can get rid of this is almost giving it away to somebody. It kind of basically what it was. So the buyer came in just the sales, the actual asking price is the remaining balance of the board. So it was nothing to the seller. I signed it to the buyer. So I have to feed him there for me for the due dealers I did in the bit in this deal.

So no, it was just nothing to the seller. That's amazing. Thank God he met you. And this was a huge win for him to get this off his shoulders. But it's also a huge win for the buyer, right? they got essentially just got to move in after they're just compensating you. It beats any bank loan, any lender loan. It beats that like 100% right.

Right. That's awesome. Congratulations on that. What have you found to be the biggest surprise investing in real estate now that you got a year into it? I would say how once you start really being consistent, it really is a simple business. And that's the surprise that they guys. It really is simple. It's if you stick to a certain thing, it's a simple business.

Right. That's awesome. Because it is. You're absolutely right. And sometimes you just got to go through it to realize, wow, it is that simple, right? And you really can't do this without any money. Like once you have that epiphany, and all of a sudden you're a big advocate and a proponent of it. But before, let's go back to before. If you were to go back to the very beginning when we got started, what is some advice you'd give to yourself back then. Do it. Stop reading. Stop YouTube. Stop being worried. Just do it. It's like, do what you're doing now. Present, wake up early, prep yourself. But it just that hour, just rush time. Do it. After this year, if we were to go back then also, what was it that initially drew you to work with Epic? I got a lot of credit to my mother-in-law because we just have the same type of mindset, entrepreneurs spirit, and she had a few investor properties. So I knew what she was doing, and I have a few relatives that are agents.

So I knew it from the fishbowl. I'm looking outside. And then after the weekend, it's like, oh, I can actually be in the fishbow and I see I can actually do this. What have been your three favorite things about working with Epic? communication like I can know I know you hate it but I can watch you anytime like I got a hurdle it's like especially with this last deal was a lot of hurdles I call out the hurdle house because it was this going all over another way you got over one and there comes another one but one I can reach out to you and also it's a community you know I'm in the process now of doing

another deal with another student so that community is there and third I would think just The education of it. You've been in this game for like a while. So if there's a question there, as they answer right here, or there's something there that I can use to like, okay, I can get over the hurdle. This might be in the vault or this might be in a YouTube you've done before, a podcast or something there. So it's just the resources.

So the communication, the community, and the resources. Awesome. Thanks for sharing that. I get a joy out of talking to you because you're actually out there and I can tell by your questions that you're actually doing it. And like, yeah, let's work through this thing together. So it's wide open for you, all right? Anytime that you want, you're never bothering me.

So clearly you got your eyes on the prize. So five years from now, what's the dream scenario for your real estate portfolio and your day job now that you've seen this as a real possibility? Well, five years, I guess to put it like in stages, it's like bringing in my wife home. We just had a one-year-old. For that, we had a two-year-old. For that, we skipped and we had a 10-year-old. So she's actually working full-time. She works in the education field.

my wife helps me out what she can, West her heart. And this isn't staged, is just taking myself away from the business. Instruction, like I said earlier, my nephews are involved as far as the campaigning portion, but maybe like later on in life, maybe they could be more involved in acquisition. And I can just hire more into it. I can set out. So hire more goods in, I can step out. And then eventually, like, completely step out.

Just putting my business on autopilot. But the real estate will be the foundation because I love it. I'm growing to really love it a lot more. I like to love doing it, like talking about it. Oh, yeah, that's where I foresee it myself. Love it. Can you finish this sentence for me? I almost didn't work with Epic because...

Didn't have a plane ticket? Yeah, I almost like didn't because, like, hey, I was like, no, I'm not going to take the flight out there, but I'm really, really truly glad that I did. This is crazy because your headquarters is in Vegas. And like, if there was a party, I'll be on a flight just like that. But like, when it comes to, like, invest in yourself. And I had that conversation with myself. Like, hey, this investment in myself.

And like, let me just do it. And I'm glad I did. Really glad I'm did. I love that. So last question, if someone were on the fence about working with Epic, what would you tell them to tip the scales? I would tell them those three things I just mentioned. You're going to have like the communication.

You're going to have the community that's building, it's growing and growing. And the thing about it, like the community is growing within the students. We're like, open it open and open it up. We're like now just helping each other. And the third thing, the resources, the resources are there. And I think those three things are really, really important when, like, you're brand new. Like, you need that communication. You need some kind of, like, community where, like, you're not it by yourself.

And you need those resources that are available. Super. Thanks for that. And thanks for, this is your power hour for work. And you cut a little bit of it in half to be with me. So I really appreciate that. Thank you very much for being here. Oh, no problem.

A lot of my uncles, they're, like, military guys. So they taught me how to eat fast anyway. So I just already ate my lunch. But cash has been, what, 30 years and I still am always the first one done. Yeah, me too, at all right. J.R. be good and stay in touch, bud. All right. Thanks a lot, man. We'll be back with more right after this.

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All right. So, JR's story, isn't it amazing? Totally amazing. That guy is a genius at what he does. I love working with people like JR. You know, he's your normal guy who's got the job. He's got the mortgage. He's got the family.

And he's got a very limited amount of time to make real estate work. And the guy gets up before work. And, you know, he gets everything situated. And then he blocks out his lunchtime and works an hour at lunch. And it's important to him. And he's closing deals. It just shows that if you do the activities, you do them consistently, doesn't really matter the volume. You will get the results if you're consistent with it.

I mean, that goes back to us constantly talking about first and foremost, if you really want to do it, you find a way to make it happen. But a lot of it has to do with your why. Like his why is huge. It's, you know, his family. It's like there's a reason why he's doing it. And it's not just him. So when you have that why in front of you, it becomes no longer about you, about something bigger. And then you just find a way to make it happen.

Like there's just no excuses. And with an hour or two a day, I mean, that's what you and I constantly tell our students. Like, you know, if you work a nine to five, you get home, have dinner, and you spend an hour and a half to two hours. Instead of watching reality TV, do two hours of this. And things will happen. And they might happen a little bit slowly, not as fast as you want it to go. But needless to say, if you're consistent with what you're doing, it will happen. Yep.

Yeah. And, you know, so many people have the time constraint. And just to kind of elaborate a little bit more about the why. You know, you and I, we've been to so many personal development type programs and events and stuff like that. And everyone always starts with the why. You have to have your why, right? If you don't know why you're doing it, you're not going to go very far. You're not going to do it consistently.

unless you just naturally love it. And when people are talking about how they just don't have the time for it, I want to do that, but I don't have the time. Remember Jay Massey, a good friend of ours, I remember I walked into the office one day and my weight has fluctuated up and down over the years. And I was like, gosh, I got on the scale of day, I just didn't move the right direction.

It moved the wrong direction. And I remember him saying, and this isn't what I was going to say, but it goes perfectly with what I am going to say. He said, you know what? It's just not that important to you. And I was like, how dare you tell me, me being fit and in shape is not important to me. And he was, well, if it was, and you would have lost weight.

And I started, it hit me so hard and I had to really think about it. I was like, you're so right. And then, so connected to that, which that was the little tangent that I just unexpectedly went on, when someone says it's not important to you, and I heard this laid out in a way, or you don't have the time for it. And the analogy I thought or I heard was, do you remember that time when you were single and you were getting ready? You had a date coming up on the weekend, right? And, you know, you just have the same schedule.

You're busy. But you took the time to go get your hair done. You took the time to go to take your clothes to the cleaners, right? And you made reservations and maybe you made backup reservations and, you know, you got everything all set. and maybe you arranged for flowers to be delivered. Like, you did all of this extra stuff inside of a busy week just because that's what was important to you at the time. Yeah.

And just imagine if your financial futures is important to you as your, is that next hot date and what that would look like if you repeated that process over and over and over again, just like J.R. is doing. Yeah. Well, you know, it's funny. You say that, Matt, because just last week, I think I mentioned it at last week's podcast, but we had somebody come into our office to, thank us for helping her reach retirement in four years. In fact, I have asked her to be a guest

on our podcast, so I'll be interviewing her next week. I did promise that last week, but we finally have it on the calendar. But I remember when I met her for lunch, I asked her why she was doing this. And she's a mathematical, she likes spreadsheets and numbers, kind of like we do, but she takes it to another level. And she just said, I realized. that if I don't do something different, the retirement that I have is just not going to give me the life that I wanted. And what's going to happen with my children? She's got two kids. And I really thought about, I'm so happy she's thinking about this now because at the time she was like, I don't know, 34, 35, she's still in her 30s. And she's now retiring. I think she's

37, 38 now, she got to do it in four years. But the reason she was able to do it in four years is because first and foremost, she didn't reinvent the wheel. She just copied what we were doing. But her Y was so big, there was like no stopping her. It was, I'm not going to retire the way I want to retire. The 401K and the IRA that I have is not going to do it. And what are my kids going to do? And when that Y is bigger than you, miraculous things happen. So let's help people do miraculous things. Well, I have to stop you. We're in our newly designed, pretty decorated office.

And you haven't said anything about our new podcast studio. Oh, well, the reason I didn't is because we're not quite there to video yet. Although it is ready for video, we have some more setup to do. But you've done a great job. It looks great. We have to love where we work and where we chat. Right. Perfect.

Awesome. Well, you shared this with me this morning. I thought this would be a great thing for us to talk about out of Fortune magazine this week. And it kind of takes off from where we left off from last week. Goldman Sachs just dropped a housing market forecast for 2024 and sees home prices and the high mortgage rates and the lowest number of existing home sales since the early 90s. That's the headline. But if you dig deeper in like any story, the headline tells one thing. And then if you go down to like paragraph four or five,

then all of a sudden you start to get the real story. So this would be good for us to talk about. And I think also what's funny, where we are in November, right? So it's like May or June, there was a lot of people came out, started talking about the housing industry. And they talked about how everybody got it wrong

of the last six months. Like it did something totally different than anybody was expecting what they were predicting. And so there's a bunch of different perspectives in this article. And they're all very different. Yeah. And they all have to use different reasoning and logic for making their predictions. But it just comes down to show that none of us really know what's going to happen.

Well, that's because none of us have crystal balls. And, you know, we tend to, I've said it before, history repeats itself. But then you have something catastrophic that's happened that doesn't happen on our regular basis or like a pandemic. Like, when was the last time this country experience a pandemic? Yeah. And so when you throw that into them? the mix. It's like, how can anyone predict anything if it really hasn't happened in our lifetime? Right. And so, yeah, a lot of us got it wrong. I didn't make a prediction because I was smart enough

to think that, yeah, this is going to rattle something, but which direction is going to go has a lot to do with so many factors. You know, the administration and, I mean, I don't want to get political, but there's a lot goes into it than just history repeating itself. Yeah. I mean, we had this global emergency. And there was a lot of really quick, knee-jerk reactions that saying that history always repeats itself, might have, you know, tipped it off its axis. And so it's not repeating the way that everyone is traditionally predicted. Yeah.

Well, let's just look into the article. We talked about our opinion a lot last week. Let's talk about what they're saying. Yeah. So one thing that's true, been true about home prices since the pandemic began, and I know you and I, for the first couple weeks, are like, oh, my gosh, the housing marks going to crash. How is it's a market? That was just kind of like the easy thing to assume.

But since then, even to today, prices have just continued to go up. We had a serious leveling out in the first six months of this year. And I think it was just like the hysteria left the market. I call it the emotional equity left the market. People were paying more just because they're emotionally involved. And once it's settled down, so if you look at any chart, it looks like it's come down quite a bit. But if you just draw a straight line like from before the past, pandemic to where it is now is a still historically steep line of appreciation, even though it's

pulled back a little bit. But here we are today. The last seven months, we've been on the rise. The case Schiller index is continuing to increase. But here's the weird thing is that the prices are increasing while sales activity is dropping. So that has never happened before. We can't say history repeats itself because those are two conflicting statistics that are happening. So they sent 2023, we saw the rates go from 3% to just slightly above 8%.

They pulled back just a little bit, but they have more than doubled. And that had very little impact, if any, on home prices. Absolutely. And that's like, they are twice as much on a monthly basis to afford to live in than they were. And the

prices are the same. And this will just always go back and I'll be a broken record on this forever, because this is where I really changed my tune about three weeks into COVID when I saw the supply and demand numbers. Yeah. When I saw the number of people that are moving through home buying age now, like they were here 20 years ago, but now they're at an age where they buy houses and we went through that same 20 years,

you know, we had a building deficit. So that's supporting. That's keeping it up. What they're seeing is it's probably going to stay the same. They're predicting the rates to stick. Yeah. They're predicting the home prices to stick and slightly increase.

But they are seeing predicting that the home sales, activity is going to stay stagnant. Yeah. It might be pulled back a little bit because more than half of the homes out there, it says the number in here. I just don't have reference to it. It is more than half of the things around 70 percent. Of all the people that have mortgages on their homes are in those homes at rates lower than

what you can get right now. Yeah. So it's really killing typical real estate turnover. Right. People are staying put. And because people are staying put, properties aren't available for us investors to buy. Right. So that's good that you brought that up because I would probably push back on that just a hair because when you see reports like these out of magazines and our mainstream media, this is really looking at it from a retail level. Right. And we're like under retail. Like we're off market. We're wholesale buyers. And so there's different things that happen that make properties available to us that might not be reflected on the public market.

Right. Sure. In the public space, the retail space is what I was looking for. So, yeah, there's the thing is we buy properties from people that are in some sort of distressed situation. And there's no shortage of people. Life kicks everybody in the teeth every day. And so who's not distressed today will be distressed tomorrow.

And people have to turn to their properties as their form of financial relief. That's for sure. And do that. So those will always be available. We're just looking more on a big scale retail side of things. sadly, divorce rates are not decreasing and death rates are not decreasing. Those are pretty steady during, some would argue that during COVID it was at a rise. And so when it comes to those situations, that's where they reach out to the investor that can purchase the property within five days,

all cash, or in a creative manner, just to get them out of their dire situation that life has created for them. Mm-hmm. So, yeah. The one thing I thought is interesting here is Goldman is predicting. And it's funny because we have Goldman, Morgan Stanley, and then one other place said the AEI Housing Center, which I've never heard of. It's a public policy think tank. So they have. But if we look at this, we have Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and this housing think tank.

Only one of them is actually focused on housing. Yeah. Right. So you have to kind of consider the source that you're getting a Wall Street prediction. on what the housing is going to do. And we know that when you look at the economy, and here's something I'm predicting, this is my bold prediction,

is that the job reports just came out. And so hiring is slowing down. Unemployment numbers came out at the same time. That's actually starting to inch up a little bit. And so those are traditional symbols of a slowing economy. And so now with the Fed is like, okay, are they going to maybe pivot now? Like, okay, we've brought, raised the rates up.

We're seeing the impact now. And will it be time for them to like dig into their toolbox and maybe pull back on them a little bit? And we just can't ignore the fact that we have probably the most divisive election coming up next year. And does the current administration really want to have the current economy on the debate stage? Yeah, for sure. Will they try to maybe fix it and bring the rates down a little bit or release a little bit of the pressure on the economy and have it go the other direction? I think that's actually what's going to happen. Yeah.

I don't think you're wrong, Matt. Usually during an election year, the new administration or the administration that's trying to become the new administration tries to do everything possible to mitigate what's going wrong at the current state of affairs, whether it's health care or real estate or whatever the situation. is. In our case, I do believe rates are going to drop just a tad, but it would be unrealistic for me to think that rates are going to go down to the rates where we experience during COVID. So it's not going to go down to the two, three, four percent that we would like to see. It might drop down to maybe six and a half, seven. If we're lucky, we're right now, today's world, like at an eight percent-ish. and I can't see it going a whole lot lower than, you know, 7%. In most cases, if you're working with a lender, you are able to buy the rate down to get you that lower rate.

But that's you buying it down. That's not, you know, what's being presented to you. So I like your bold prediction there, Mr. Dario. Like I said, we started this. Nobody knows what's going to happen. Yeah, for sure. And my gosh, I mean, you just can't be surprised by anything these days. and I think it's still smart to play it safe to some degree,

but I also think it could be risky by not doing anything at all. Just imagine how many people want to go back to the day the globe shut down and mid-March and buy all the houses they possibly could on that day. And by all the Bitcoin they could have bought on that day. Because as bad as crypto has got, it's still 10 times what it was on that day. Yeah. So there's room for, I think, a logical safe gamble. I wouldn't overrisk yourself.

But I certainly wouldn't stop. Yeah. I was just watching something where they were talking about how houses, in the last 50 years, real estate has appreciated 12 times. Yeah. While salaries have only appreciated six times. Wow. So real estate has appreciated twice as fast as our pay has increased. And so that goes all the way back to 1973.

And that would be two years after we were taken off the gold standard. And that's like where everything changed. And that's where inflation had a big impact on us. And it's where it kind of rendered Kiyosaki's famous line, which I love when he calls savers or losers. Right. Everyone thought, oh, how can you call a savor or losers? That's a terrible thing to say about a person. He says, not talking about the person.

He's talking about the money you're saving is losing. And that's a perfect example. So when I say that you can't stand still because you know you're guaranteed to lose, it's just the economy that we live in. It's a debt-based economy. That's globally, by the way. That's not just the U.S. And so you have to focus more on investing than saving if you want to keep up with what's going on.

Well, that goes back to me and my little mantra of, you know, if you're not doing a whole lot of investing because you're waiting for the market to turn or you're waiting for something to rise or rates to fall or whatever it is. At the very least, you know with what history has shown you that real estate is probably a very good bet. And at the very least, if you can go back, if you can go get away with buying one rental property a year, that is a life changer. And I mean, when you say, you know, do something. You can't just stop and do nothing because if you do nothing for sure you will lose, the world will pass you up.

But if you buy one property a year or one property every two years, that's a lot. Because if you just hold it, just imagine in 10 years what that one property is doing for you. The Federal Reserve came out with that number mid last year. And they did an analysis, the difference between a real estate owner and a non-real estate owner is by the time they reached the agent, of 65 is 40 times difference in wealth. Wow. Four zero. That was just one property. They think they based off your actual primary residence. But gosh, what if you had two? Right? What a different place you'd be in. So with this Goldman Sachs thing, it's kind of, they're not too bullish on the market. They think things are going to get not worse, but they think because it'll be extended,

it'll feel worse. Yeah. And so there's that perspective. And then down here at the bottom, Morgan Stanley, so I don't know if you're a Goldman person or a Morgan person, but they just changed their whole prediction and forecasting an actual rise in prices of up to 5% this year. Yeah.

In 2004, when Goldman adjusted theirs down to 1.3%. So you have two of the behemoths on Wall Street saying very different things. And then you have the AEI Housing Center. I got to look them up to see who they are. They expect a 6% increase in home prices for 2023, with only two more months left. It'll be an annual show in an annual increase of 6%, followed by a jump of 7% in 2024. And I think that one could actually be accurate if my prediction comes true. So if we count on politicians doing what politicians do and they want to have the economy in a better light than it is right now,

because there's not a whole lot of defense for the economy. A lot of people are hurting right now. And if they got on a debate stage, what is Biden going to say? Like, no, it's not. It's great. Right? Like, that's not going to go. That's not going to fly.

So I think there will be an adjustment. And if we have the interest rates we have right now and we have prices increasing, if they drop that from a seven and three quarters to a six and three quarters, what is that going to do to the prices? It's going to go back. I think the seven percent prediction. might be actually conservative. Right?

So again, everybody was wrong 12 months ago. And who knows who's going to be right 12 months from now. But we do know that the supply and demand imbalance is so much in the favor of the real estate owner more so than it is in the renter. For sure. I pulled this article, Matt, just because, first of all, it's clickbait. Got us. We clicked. Yeah, we totally clicked.

but I really think it's important for us just to have conversations about, you know, what Goldman Sachs is predicting and what, you know, Morgan Stanley is predicting just because that is what the average person reads when they do a simple Google search. There's not a whole lot of click-batable information from the perspective of a real estate investor. And so I think that it is our job to enlighten our listeners from both perspectives. here's what's out there, here's what Goldman Sachs is saying, here's what Morgan Sandlin saying, and then here's what we're experiencing from a real estate investor perspective on a real-time basis. And so that's why we have these platforms where we can discuss and enlighten people about different aspects of what is currently transpiring as we speak. So there's that. I happen to think your prediction, by the way, for the record, you've predicted stuff before.

And sometimes it surprises me, Matt, how your predictions are so spot on. Like, I will hands down say that a lot of our real estate investments were not what I would have jumped on originally. but the way that you think things and the way that you kind of foresee what's transpiring within the next six to 12 months, it's worked in our favor. And your predictions, more time than not, have been pretty accurate. So I'm going to give that to you. And in 12 months, we're going to listen to this episode and see what happened. And we'll have this as a point of comparison.

As you're saying that, I actually didn't know you thought that. But I started thinking about the predictions I have made. And I think the reason I've been consistent and accurate with real estate and I think why most people can be optimistic and still be safe with real estate is that it is a basic human need. Ask me how my predictions went with Bitcoin. How did they go with Bitcoin? Well, it's not well, right? But it's because Bitcoin yet is not a basic human need. It's not shelter.

It's not water. It's not food. Right. It's not clothing. it's not health care. It's like this thing, kind of a speculating thing of like, hey, the world's going to change

and you don't want to be left on the wrong side of the whole thing. So there's a lot of speculation in that. But when it comes to the housing, I mean, this really easy look, it's supply and demand. Yeah.

So let me clarify that. Your Bitcoin journey did very well for a very long time. Yes. You got to ride the wave because you were smart. You got in early.

You were a bit aggressive. And you went in with that, with the mindset of, heck, if I lose this money, kind of like Las Vegas. If I put it in the slot machine and it works, great. If I lose it, then it didn't hurt me. So, yeah, it went very, very well for a very long time. It paid for my garden. It paid for my new door. It did very, it bought me a new car. So don't say that it didn't end well. I mean, it didn't end well, but the journey was going. Right. No, we definitely came out and made more than we lost. For sure. But we should have, we held on too long. And that was my whole thing.

Yeah. But it could have been just so much better. Yeah. But no, we did good on that too, just because I think it's still there for the future. I just don't see what I see right now, if you even care what I think about Bitcoin now that we're talking about it, is that there's not a whole lot of disposable, discretionary income out there, out there right now. And that's going to need to come back to the system before I think an asset like a cryptocurrency really takes off. Yeah. But then again, you got the whole global politics that's going on right now. And who knows what's going to happen. Okay, that's a whole other conversation that we're not going to tap into right now.

I just always have to cover my bases because I think generally speaking of just supply and demand and what people have available to them right now, that's an easy prediction. But there's always these outlier variables like a pandemic, like another world war, like social disruption or whatever it may be. That's why they call it a black swan because it's something that you can't predict. But we can predict that there will probably be another black swan at some point. But if they don't, then supply and demand for real estate, I think, is a pretty easy way to predict. So talking about predictions, I am going to predict that our listeners are going to really find an amazing name for our listeners.

We rolled out a little contest that we are going to finalize at the end of this year. And the contest is, we need a name for you the listener. I kind of tapped on it last week. You know, the Taylor Swift followers are called Swifties. The Lady Gaga followers are called Little Monsters. Well, what are the epic followers called? So, Matt and I created a contest, and it's going to be very simple for you to enter. All you need to do is give us a five-star review and tell us what you like best about a podcast

or a guest that we brought on or an episode. And then give us your suggestion on what you think the epic follower should be called. called. The winner will be named on our podcast. We will send you a signed book by Mr. Terrio and a wonderful Amazon gift card that you can splurge on Amazon just for you. I think that's it. All righty. And if you come up with a really cool name, please share it. And if you think, hey, we don't want to be called anything. Share that too. If this is all about you, not us. Also, feel free to share us on social media if you think that this episode is going to help someone, then please share us and spread the word that financial freedom

is really a true thing. All right. Have a great day, everyone. Take care. Bye. And that wraps up the epic show. If you found this episode valuable, who else do you know that might too? There's a really good chance you know someone else who would. And when their name comes to mind, please share it with them and ask them to click the subscribe button when they get here and I'll take great care of them. God loves you, and so do I. Health, peace, blessings, and success to you. I'm Matt Terrio. Living the dream.

Yeah, yeah, we got the cash flow. You didn't know, home for us, we got the cash flow. This podcast is a part of the C-suite Radio Network. For more top business podcasts, visit c-sweetradio.com.