Escaping the Drift with John Gafford - How will rising interest rates affect the housing market? The Power Move Podcast EP 53

Episode Date: June 15, 2022

Episode 53Learn and burn Entrepreneurship from serial entrepreneur John Gafford and his band of mayhem makers. From stripper poles to the oval office, business lessons are everywhere. This Week:The re...al estate market has been on a tear for the past few years, with prices reaching new highs in many parts of the country. But now, interest rates are starting to rise, changing consumer confidence.While higher rates make it more expensive to borrow money for a mortgage, today we discuss the truth about interest rates with industry veteran Joey Ciaglia.With Joey Ciaglia, Chris Connell and Colt AmidanFollow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thejohngafford/Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/gafford2

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Starting point is 00:00:00 from the art of the deal to keeping it real live from the simply vegas studios it's the power move with john gafford back again back again for now what is i decided to cut it into two so we'll do two short episodes this week to be a favor if you'd rather have like two 35 minute episodes episodes that are on different things, I know we drift into a lot of topics in and out. Anyway, let me know. Hit the comments. But my name is John Gafford. Welcome to the Power Move.
Starting point is 00:00:33 With me to the left of me, as always, is Colt the Bulgarian Mongoose. Amadam. iPhone King. Colt the iPhone King. Colt the Green Bubble Killer. Amadam. He did. Oh, boy killer Amadon He did No wonder our conversation
Starting point is 00:00:50 Do I get Do I get five minutes of franting right now You don't You just had five minutes of friends on there And across from us in the studio today Also Chris the counselor Connell As always and special guest In the studio today
Starting point is 00:01:04 One of my great great friends One of my favorite people So Chris, the counselor, Connell, as always, and special guest in the studio today. One of my great, great friends, one of my favorite people, loyal soldier, awesome dude, an amazing lender, Joey Siaglia. And the reason I had Joey on today and I asked him to come in today is because today when I was working with all of our agents this morning and I was doing my weekly meeting for our real estate agents, we were talking about the psyche of America when it comes to interest rates right now in terms of house buying. And I started telling my people, I said, look, the reason your sales are down are not because of the interest rates. It's because of your failure and your inability to explain this to people in a way that makes sense to them. You know, people with social media these days, everybody, you know, all it takes is one pop-up guru to tell you that, oh man, the bubble's going to burst and this is it and whatever
Starting point is 00:01:56 else. And all of a sudden it's like, well, my cousin Chad saw this guy on YouTube who listened to Gary Vee once who saw a video that had 10 X in it. And all of a sudden, yeah, now I'm not going to buy a house. Yes. And it's just, it doesn't stop. And so as professionals within the industry, I feel it is the responsibility of agents, of good agents to perpetuate good information into the ecosystem of America. And I told them, I said, look, when you see a good chart, I saw one the other day that I loved, which is the historical interest rate chart. It showed it, peak it up at like 19% back then.
Starting point is 00:02:30 And it shows it and shows like, we're just kind of now back into a normal. I mean, even below normal. Yeah, it's going still subnormal. Still subnormal. We're not in 82% anymore, but we're still subnormal. And I said, when you see stuff like that, steal it and reshare it because you're just helping.
Starting point is 00:02:47 Now, don't do the realtor stuff where you're standing in the house like, you know, get your day to buy a house for my daddy because we need the money. You know, nobody cares about that shit. But perpetuating facts and things that actually make sense to people are really good. So I wanted to have Joe on today because he is an expert at explaining these things to people in a way that makes sense. Sure. So my first question is, Joe, let's talk about you for a minute. Let's get your background. I always want to have people in here that are experts at what they do. I like to kind of get the fill on them. I got my license two months ago.
Starting point is 00:03:18 I'm feeling pretty good. I'm feeling good. Just passed the test. I'm feeling pretty good. I've learned a couple things. That's right. Coltsman doing commercial real estate. Coltsman doing commercial real estate for 20 years. I don't know if he has a license. It's really pretty good. We're going to do a couple things. That's right. Coltsman doing commercial real estate. Coltsman doing commercial real estate for 20 years.
Starting point is 00:03:27 I don't know if he has a license. And he's only 22. So, I mean, that's even more pressure. Wait, you have to have a license to do this? Yeah. For what? For what? That's our first.
Starting point is 00:03:35 Next you're going to tell me I need a law license. Yeah, you do. You went to law school? Yeah. I was going to become a lawyer next week. The Hollywood Upstairs Law School? Yeah. Did you get a degree, Chris?
Starting point is 00:03:43 I did the full weekend, John. The full weekend? The full law weekend. Put all the time in. Yeah, you got your degree. Some guys quit half the way through. After Friday evening. Did you notice that Joey got an amazing intro?
Starting point is 00:03:56 He did. Did we get like Colton Chris? They know who you are right now. I don't know what they do, dude. The reason people quit on Saturday night at the weekend law class is because they say you got to pass the bar, and then it is what's the bar just step in on saturday it's all right i went to the bar so back to you joe so how long have you been doing this i mean i know but let the folks how long you've been doing this i've been doing this 21
Starting point is 00:04:16 years 21 years so if you're if your mortgage degree was was a person it'd be stripping at the rhino is that what you're trying to tell. Is that what you're trying to tell me? No, no. It might be little Ds because that place is like, that'll make it through anything. There you go. But anyway, so 23 years you've been doing this. Yes. But you know what's important to mention is I don't know everything. I'm still learning. I'm constantly learning and trying to perfect my craft in this business because what might have been six months ago is no longer. So we're constantly having to re-up that knowledge. And it's not just the continuing education courses that you make you do every year. That doesn't mean anything. This is staying
Starting point is 00:04:55 in the know on what's going on in the financial markets. How are the big lenders setting price? Because those are the ones you really need to watch. It's not the mom and pop mortgage shop that's really dictating what's happening out there. It's watching the big boys. It's the Rocket Mortgages, the PennyMax, the United Wholesale Mortgage, all these big guys that have market makers, they have access to the money. They're the ones that are hedging, so you know when they're hedging. Those are the ones that I'm following to make sure that I have all the knowledge to pass along to my realtors and clients. To your clients. So let's compare the markets now. Okay. Let's talk about,
Starting point is 00:05:30 you know, you've been doing this 23 years and obviously, you know, Las Vegas is the, was the epicenter for the implosion back in 2005, 2006. And in no way am I implying by saying that, that it's going to happen again. But what I am saying is part of what caused that crash over and above all of the indicators, the ninja loans, all of those things that happened, nobody have skin in game, the rapid depreciation. But what got that ball rolling was consumer confidence in the markets plummeted. Right. So as somebody that was around in 2005, now there's a lot of things going for the market now before you'd be like, oh my God, he's going to say this, the same thing now. There's so many things going on in the market now that are different from then that will prevent that from happening again.
Starting point is 00:06:13 But consumer confidence is something that's very important to the health of any market. Are you seeing or did you see some similarities when rates spiked up then to now? Did you see any similarities? Actually, no. So in all fairness, I think that, I mean, we have a lot of crazy things going on in our country right now, right? We could all agree on that. And whether it's inflation, whether it's financial markets, whether it's the stock market, they're all tied together in some form or fashion, right? So I think that what we've experienced in the last three years with interest rates being at an all-time low, which we may never see again. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:06:55 We may never see a 30-year fixed rate at 2.25% again. Yep. And you know what? That's okay. That's okay. That's a healthy market. So I believe we're experiencing a healthy market. So we're, I believe we're experiencing a healthy market right now, but it's, there's a little bit of shock value
Starting point is 00:07:09 for the people that aren't educated, which is, that's why we're here today to talk about getting that education. But you've got, I believe the Fed made an error in the last couple of years. This should have been done a long time ago. Totally agree. So what we've experienced in the last three years was a gift. We may not get that gift again. So some people that were able to benefit from that, that's great, that's wonderful, but it doesn't compare in any fashion to what we went through back in 2005, 2006, and 2007 that was leading up to why everything came down. And the reason, just for your listeners, that things came down was because the mortgage loans that these banks were putting out were garbage.
Starting point is 00:07:55 They were garbage. But not only were they garbage, they were packaged as beautiful paper, but it was still garbage. Because everybody could pass it on and make their fees right they just kept going oh those rating agencies rating agencies got this thing um when you take a strip off a triple a bond throw it in a pile of dog shit and they would give it a triple a triple a that's the basic crux of what that was so it's just a matter of time before the house of cards comes falling down so So you, you fast forward 15 years to where we are now for the last 10, we've been writing good mortgages.
Starting point is 00:08:31 Yeah. Oh yeah. This isn't just me talking. You guys would know this probably more than me, but statistically, statistically speaking, people in this country have more equity in their homes than they've ever had in the history of the real estate market.
Starting point is 00:08:50 So there's still opportunities out there for refinancing because let's be honest, most people are fiscally irresponsible and they're always going to need cash to pay debt off. And you know, if you can refinance your mortgage loan right now at five and a quarter percent, that's a lot cheaper than paying 26% on a credit card that you're going to carry probably forever, right? Because people just can't get out. We talked about this last week. So, so to answer your question, I mean,
Starting point is 00:09:10 there's just been this huge shift where people have an out. So if Colt loses his job tomorrow, which based on the banter could be a real possibility. And I don't even know if I have a job. And he has to sell his home to live. There's enough money in there to pay the agents. There's enough money in there to put some money in his pocket and move on. We didn't have that luxury back in 2008 because we were writing terrible loans that were put in front of us that were becoming saleable in the secondary market.
Starting point is 00:09:41 And there was just no skin in the game. There was no skin in the game. That secondary market was backed by the United States government based on the everyone in a home dream, right? Yes. Which is just so fundamentally against market principles, right? Yep. And then add on top of that some of these other concepts
Starting point is 00:09:59 where it's like, to be fair, we don't take our medicine as a country, right? Yes. Having these low interest rates is a way to keep it. You can only go to zero. You know what I mean? And we're almost there. That's not true. They were giving money.
Starting point is 00:10:12 And Japan was giving money, right? They'll pay you to take those. They still are. But theoretically, right, you're supposed to take your medicine. When the economy is bad to help it jumpstart, you're supposed to use quantitative easing to drop the interest rates. You sell paper, you buy paper. But the other part of that,
Starting point is 00:10:30 like we're talking about the dichotomy, is then putting it up when the economy's heated up too much. And politically, it's suicide because if you have an administration that's doing really well, we should cool it off so that you're not creating that situation.
Starting point is 00:10:45 And that's what doesn't happen because it's political suicide. Yeah, this should have been taken care of a long time ago. And honestly, I remember when I came to Vegas, that interest rate that I bought was like 5.25%. And I thought, wow, I just made a steal. Because when I first got into it seven and a half was normal if you got seven you were really doing good if you got like eight and a half on a commercial loan you were freaking killing it that was 20 years ago right cap rates were nine percent yeah yeah yeah but no but when i got 5.25 interest rate i'm like holy cow i just stole this right like but now
Starting point is 00:11:24 everybody's like oh my god they quoted me 5.25. Like, that's crazy. It's like the Bill Burr deal. How quickly we become accustomed to things that we didn't know existed five minutes ago. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Like, sorry folks, the online internet is not going to work this time. It's bullshit.
Starting point is 00:11:39 There's a sense of entitlement in the market. And there's a sense of false security that, I mean, this is just a normal time. And I would say to some of the newer agents, the agents that work for you, it's all about the education piece, right? If the houses aren't going anywhere that I firmly do not believe that we are going to have a massive reduction in price here. I really don't. I feel like people are going to sell because they have to. so i'm i would be more concerned about the inventory issues than i would be about well that's what you're up inventory is up 50 over the last four weeks growing which is still but here's the thing a good healthy market is good for everybody but it's still insignificant
Starting point is 00:12:18 relative to how it's been before yes and we don't tell me where we're going to build here where's the land apex sloan yeah well no and i tell people that all the time and that's one of the reasons when i give people when they ask why vegas will hold its value and i say look again i understand vegas is essentially an island we're just surrounded by sand instead of surrounded by water we don't have any more land right the land isn't there and so when you look at this you've got got to look at it as we're Manhattan in the desert. That's what we are. I mean, tide's going to rise.
Starting point is 00:12:48 Speaking of tides, and I said this morning, I said the thing I think that's hurting us in the market more right now, with the nationwide appearance of our market, is the damn barrels that keep floating up in Lake Mead. Because everybody's assumed Lake Mead is like a bathtub and the cork is out and it's going to zero and we're all going to be drinking sand in like six months. Where we've had people from the water district here that are like, look, it's bad for boaters, we understand that, but we have plenty of water. We wouldn't have done that. This country's not going to let it. It's going to come down to water rights.
Starting point is 00:13:22 One of my law professors is a water right. Absolute expert, like nation renowned expert in water rights, in water. That's that's happy, happy rights. And so I remember he could have gone fancy right now. No, no, no, no, no. He just he was for. We have another scholar on. I'm not going to insult him. Who's the scholar?
Starting point is 00:13:46 What are you talking about? He said that under any circumstance, you're always going to be able to get water here. It's not like a city is going to go waterless. That's never going to happen. It may get more expensive to get here, but the water rights issue, we will be able to access water for all time here. All they have to do is is it'll just be costly. They're just going to have to pull California.
Starting point is 00:14:08 California just start. They've got to figure that out. Once you take California out, we're doing we do not waste water in Vegas. What do you mean take California out, Colt? California person? What are you talking about? We can give them to freaking Canada. I always heard that the casinos would fly
Starting point is 00:14:24 like a glacier in if they had to. I just let it melt. They have the money. Everybody thinks the U.S. government, I shouldn't say that because of Flint, Michigan, right? But the U.S. government is not going to allow a city to go out and have no, not that two million. It's going to be the Nevada state legislators and there's enough money. Well, no, you've got to have the government. That's a government thing.
Starting point is 00:14:47 You'll divert more of the Colorado River over here. Yeah. It's not going to happen. I'm not saying not to worry about it because you don't need the costs of living here increasing, but it's – But I'm just telling you, as somebody that has their finger on the pulse because I hear my agents talk to people, people from around the country really think that. Yeah. I saw that mobster guy floated up the other day.
Starting point is 00:15:05 You guys are going to be out of water in like two weeks. Guys could be drinking sand. I'm not moving there. I'm just looking around to see if I can buy some scrap metal out of these houses when they all implode. It's like that's the kind of shit. It's funny. Everybody just, it's probably not,
Starting point is 00:15:20 that one was probably a mob hit, but the other bodies, they're not mob, but everybody just wants it. The ones in barrels? That probably a mob hit, but the other bodies, they're not mobbed, but everybody just wants it. The ones in barrels? That's a mob, but it's only been the one. The other bodies have just been out there just floating. But the New York Post loves to write about it, the Daily Mail, like all that. It's really hurt in Vegas.
Starting point is 00:15:39 We talked about it last week. Wait until they start excavating that land south of the desert. They already did. They used to find those bodies all the time doing Summerland, doing the Southwest, but the developers didn't say nothing because you get shut down. That's a problem with Vegas is they love to write stuff. COVID got hit so hard because of a lot of stuff,
Starting point is 00:15:59 but they were like, oh, Vegas will never rebound. The New York Times and all that just love to make Vegas such a crazy end of the world always. I don't know why. It does make a great backdrop for disaster movies, though. I will give you that. That's pretty sweet. Pretty sweet.
Starting point is 00:16:16 We need a Goodfellas 2 where Colt's asking his ma for a knife to get the – he's got to go move the bodies. Exactly. Yeah, last week we were talking about Colts. Colts is like, you know, for $5,000, you can go $5,000 to go hunt bodies at Lake Mead. If you find a body, they'll give you $5,000. I go Colt, but after you find like the eighth one,
Starting point is 00:16:33 I think they're going to figure out like... Then you end up on the stand. Yeah, maybe you know something. I got a good attorney that's going to do... This guy went missing six hours ago. I found him. Found him. Found him. Found him. Oh, was it Lake Mead? I found him. Found him. Found him.
Starting point is 00:16:45 Found him. Oh, was it Lake Mead? I found him in Lake Las Vegas. Same thing. Same thing. So what says you is the best way to ease the psyche? No, no, Colt. Jesus.
Starting point is 00:16:58 No. What says you, Joey, is the best? Joey, as you just specified, the direction of these comments, is the best way to ease people's minds about rates. I want to hear what you say and I want to hear what I said and see if it's the same. So honestly, I don't try to overcomplicate things, right? For me, and I harp on this all the time, even with my team of loan officers, some of the newer folks, some of your seasoned folks that work for you. It's all about the education piece. The more you can educate these clients on what's going on, because I got to be honest with you, I'm an active loan officer. I get up every day and I go to the office and I write mortgages.
Starting point is 00:17:38 That's all that I do, right? I live, breathe, eat, all of this. Since the rates increase, call it 90 days, right? Fair? That was the start of kind of the... I haven't had one person. I literally, I could look you right in the face and say, I haven't had one person not buy a house because they felt the interest rate market was out of control.
Starting point is 00:18:00 No. Not even close because this is normal. This is a normal cycle in the business. What the beautiful thing is, is that this sets up the next boom, right? So it's going to, it's going to weed out a lot of the people that are agents and loan officers that are in the business. Don't have a good book of business. If you, if you're in this business as a loan officer and you haven't focused on building your agent base, you're in big trouble right now. Those guys are in big trouble. They're going back to whatever they were doing before, and then they may hop on for the next refi boom.
Starting point is 00:18:34 But the loan officers in this town that are successful, that will continue to be successful, have that agent base. And I'm not worried about the market. I'm not worried about the rate. So for me, I wouldn't necessarily say that it's a psyche that I'm not worried about the market. I'm not worried about the rate. So for me, I don't, I don't, wouldn't necessarily say that it's a psyche that I'm trying to correct with people. It's just strictly educating them what the market's doing. You know, who your savvy buyers are, you know, who your ones that aren't savvy. So you may have to spend a little bit more time explaining things over here to this guy, because he does understand financial markets where this person over here is concerned about one thing and what's that one thing their payment payment that's exactly see
Starting point is 00:19:09 that i'm glad you said that because that was exactly what i said today i said it's so important to shift the narrative away from what the interest rate is because in most cases the interest rate is irrelevant to anybody in their everyday life it does not couldn't agree more it't matter. And when people start talking about the interest rates are up the industry, you need to get this down. And I tell people, I ask them point blank, do you pay the interest rate every month or do you make a payment on the house? You make a payment on the house, get the conversation back to what you can afford based on the monthly expense that it comes out of their pocket rather than what they could, how much of a dollar figure of a house they could have bought a month, 90 days ago versus the dollar figure of a house they can buy now.
Starting point is 00:19:47 Yep. You're selling payment, not rate. And I said, you need to, and this is what I told my agent study on my team. I said, literally, I'm on this board. I want in 50,000 art increments from 500,000 to, I think I said, 850. Let's just go a little over the median. Obviously, jumbos are a little different, but let's just go in here. And I said, every day as the rates move, I want to know what's 10% down, what payment interest is
Starting point is 00:20:09 on these numbers. Because you should know this stuff. You should have a, when somebody says, I'm looking at $750,000 houses, you need to be able to translate that instantly to a payment. Payment, yep. So they should be advertising payment on their- 1,000%. You need to be selling payment. And the reason I know that this is what they should be advertising payment on their one on their thousand percent yes you need to be selling payment and the reason i know that this is what you should be doing is this is what we were doing before the interest rates went to two percent and people have such short memories they don't remember how to have these conversations so let me ask you another question to that point yeah john's exactly saying how many times do you get questions from people or how many times do you hear opinions about the market that are novel?
Starting point is 00:20:46 Because I haven't heard one. I've heard the same four or five or six arguments or statements that are novel or different. Like, hey, Bernard Barak once said, you know, in this, you know, we did a regression. Like, no, they're always like, there's going to be a crash because there was one before. Bubble's going to burst because all markets are tied. Because of this. This is going to happen, and this is going to happen. There's four or five things that, as an agent,
Starting point is 00:21:11 if you don't know how to educate on literally five statements about people's opinion about the market, then you're an absolute failure. Especially in residential. Literally five that I could probably do on. In residential, for sure. This morning I sat with some pretty smart dudes that were, you know, they were going. Every agent also has the same opinion, and they rarely, to me, even when they're kind of right, they don't seem like an authority on it. Right, no.
Starting point is 00:21:40 When you're an agent and you speak with authority, you go, well, here's why that's not, you know. Yeah, this is why that's not accurate. Here's some information that's going to help you feel better about this. That's because they don't know, though. Most agents don't. That's what I'm saying. Educate yourself on literally the five presupposed facts. I sat there today against two guys that I won't say what businesses they own or whatever.
Starting point is 00:22:00 They own very large stuff in Vegas. It was Chili's. It was Chili's. I got somebody else almost made Chili's. It was Chili's and they said... I got somebody else almost made Chili's. I almost made Chili's list today. Almost did. Really? Cowabunga Bay was right there.
Starting point is 00:22:13 Really? Right there, buddy. I'm not going to hear a background. I'm not going to tell a story because we're trying to spread positivity. It was close. There might be another video. Man, it was close. No, but it is. It's one of the five arguments people have are opinions. Because these guys were.
Starting point is 00:22:27 And own them. Most people don't own them. That's the education piece. That's right. It's the education. If the agents are educated, how can you expect your client to make an informed decision if you're not giving them the information? Well, here's my problem.
Starting point is 00:22:37 Agents want to spend all of their time learning Tom Ferry scripts on how to close appointments. Yes. They don't learn anything else to say when they're in those appointments. They don't. Like, if you want to be the trusted advisor, you've got to know the market. Like, I ask every week at my meeting, I'll just throw questions out.
Starting point is 00:22:52 How many houses on the market today? And, like, hands will shoot up, and I know those people look every day. Yes. You know, when I ask today, what's the interest rate? I got six and a half, five, two, five, four, eight. I mean, it was all over the place. And I'm like, guys, how do you not know this?
Starting point is 00:23:11 You need to know this stuff. And look, I will boast when we are successful, and I will take the hits and responsibility when we are not. That's my fault. And that's why I was like, guys, we got to get better here. It's such a loaded question, and I get the question all the time. How's the market? What's your rate today?
Starting point is 00:23:29 What's your rate today? What's your interest? There's so many different factors. What's your credit score? There's so many different factors that go into that. But you heard the term subprime, right? So the new subprime is called non-QM. Non-qualified mortgage is what it stands for. Not a bad loan. These loans are designed for people that have specific circumstances, like investors.
Starting point is 00:23:51 1099s, yeah. Yeah. I have clients that they make all the money in the world, but he's like, I don't want to give you my tax return. It's 300 pages long. You don't need it. Okay, perfect. So you're going to put 30% down?
Starting point is 00:24:03 Yes, I am. Here's your rate. That's your loan. That's your loan. So those, those programs, there's programs out there for everybody, but to, to blanket it with one interest rate makes no sense because a good loan officer, they sell it and they make it understandable to the client of this is why I'm doing this. This is how much it's going to cost you. This is how much, how long it's going to take you to get that money back. What do you want to do? And then I just turn it over to them, give them the choice. But if you don't give them the options and they can't make an informed decision, then that's on you as the professional. See, that's a, that's a great
Starting point is 00:24:37 question right now. Cause I want to hear what you say about this. Today's rates where they are, give or take how long, how long is it? How long would you tell people they need to own a house i would based on current market conditions five to seven years okay good that's the same thing yeah i tell people i said this morning in the meeting i said if you plan on being somewhere for longer than seven years and you're renting a house you're an idiot because people say why don't i buy a house the market balls guess what you are buying a house you're buying somebody else's house you're buying the house of the landlord that you live in yes you're making his payments yes you're buying that you are buying a house so yeah i agree with you're just out of control right yeah we second highest in the country as far as increases in massive but
Starting point is 00:25:16 still though we have some weird fundamentals here yeah it's still so much less than relative california yeah yeah so we we people don't understand sometimes you got to look at the market in totality when you look at las vegas okay a city of two million people that has very comparable weather to california which is also a desert people don't realize that uh most you know until you get to the coast it's basically a desert yeah so you have cheaper house prices than in like baker's field here still you know so as a relative lateral move it makes a ton of sense for most people yeah right as long as you can still work offline or you know online or whatever work okay work online did you guys okay do you mess up
Starting point is 00:25:55 to see this i gotta bring this up did you see those receipts from edc oh yeah receipts 277 i saw somebody post one the other day yeah okay. Yeah. Yeah. I thought crypto crashed. I thought NFTs were in the toilet. Somebody out there is making it. Who got $250,000 to buy bottles of rosé? I think that was the EDC executive party because both of them said EDC kinetic. You think it was their executive tables? I think probably executive tables.
Starting point is 00:26:20 And it was the same waitress. It was all spades, classes. I thought it was the same team. But still. that was my guess i don't know how these seats work but if i was a billionaire i could not still do that i just everybody always says oh but you know just you don't have that money drop on it no no i would not like what a who drinks that much i was at a table once at 150 000 minimum like 40 grand into it everybody's blacked out.
Starting point is 00:26:46 They come to me and they're like, they still have a lot to do. I go, get the most expensive champagne and then have the girl. The table minimum is insanity. Did you see the $30 unmet charge on that receipt? Yeah, $30 unmet charge. Unmet charge? Yeah, because they didn't spend enough. So it was like, they ratted it up $30 unmet charge. Unmet charge? Yeah, because they didn't spend enough. So it's like, there's a $30.
Starting point is 00:27:06 They spent that much money and then rounded it up $30. $30 because they didn't unmet charge. You know, hey, John, one more example, you know, on selling payment. If there's any agents out there that are listening to us right now that this could help them, I always compare it to a car, right? Some people lease cars. Some people buy cars. When you buy cars, I feel like you go in, you get a loan from the bank, you ask what the interest rate is.
Starting point is 00:27:29 But if you were to ask 10 people, what's the interest rate on a lease? Oh, yeah. They have no idea. I have a payment. They would have no idea. Right? It's called the money factor. It's called the money factor.
Starting point is 00:27:40 The money factor. But they don't know that. So how do you negotiate a car lease when you go into a car dealership? Right? You negotiate the money factor. You negotiate the money factor, but they don't know that. So how do you negotiate a car lease when you go into a car dealership, right? You negotiate the money factor. You negotiate the money factor. But I guarantee you nine out of 10 people don't know that. So they see the Lexus on TV that I can drive for $499. You go down there, it's actually $780 right by the time you get there. But it's because the dealers play with the money factor. It's the same thing. You're selling payment. You're not selling
Starting point is 00:28:03 what the money factor or the rate is. Yeah, I think focusing on what people can afford in that monthly payment is what is clutch going forward. And if you're- That and explaining the whole rental thing, right? Like I tell people all the time, they're like, oh, should I be buying properties? Are you living in it?
Starting point is 00:28:19 Then yes, you should go buy a property, right? Like it's, I don't know. I mean, you got people have been same house 15 years renting yeah like that's crazy like for example and let me ask you this too because obviously with affordability comes issues with prices raising yeah so in our lender that we own where joey is the man um streamline home loans do we have any what programs that we have i'm not selling i'm just curious sure so programs do we have? I'm not selling. I'm just curious. Sure. So what do we have right now?
Starting point is 00:28:46 Minimum down payment for conforming loans. 3%. 3% is minimum on conforming. If you're a first-time home buyer. FHA? No. No. If you're a first-time home buyer, you can go conventional, 3% down.
Starting point is 00:28:56 You've got to have good credit, though, because the pricing does take a big hit. So that usually is the segue or transition into FHA. Yeah. So FHA is a tick higher. It's 3.5% down. But there's a lot more leniency on credit, employment history. It's not quite as stringent as conventional. What, 640 on FHA or 680?
Starting point is 00:29:16 No, I mean, we can go all the way down to 580. 580 now. I don't want to advertise that. Come on down to Joy. But it's in total, right? If they've been at MGM for 20 years and they had a judgment for a medical bill, you can look at all those factors. Compensating factors. And again, and that's why having the market even out a little bit is good for the market because now you don't have to have cash. I mean, it's so funny when a market changes all of the innovations
Starting point is 00:29:47 that come into the marketplace. Like for example, we're seeing a lot of those companies now where you can come in and we'll write your offer essentially, which is cash, and then we'll convert it when you sell your house. Well, the rates are terrible and the points are terrible. It's expensive. When we get back to a normal market, now you can just go in with your everyday FHA-packed offer. And it's going to get accepted. Listen, we have a program at your company that it's called Fast 15.
Starting point is 00:30:12 We guarantee a 15-day close, okay? 15-day close with an appraisal. And we're closing them faster than that now, right? We're closing them, I think, I did like three last week. We closed in 11 days. And we're picking up new agents from other brokerages, not just Simply, but other places that we're turning heads. I remember I got a call on Sunday from an agent.
Starting point is 00:30:33 She worked for a different brokerage. And she said, I'm looking at this offer. First of all, it was a Sunday, right? I think I had Luca in one arm. I had like the spatula. I'm grilling my half of them in the pool. And she goes, well, you answered your phone on a Sunday. So you go right to the top of the list. And I said, well, I'll always answer
Starting point is 00:30:52 my phone unless I'm in the shower or I'm sleeping and I physically just don't have it. Right. So she said, well, that, that means everything because I've called four other offers. I called four other lenders. It's been almost five hours and I haven't received one phone call back. So I got a leg up right away. Right. And now, so then I'm going to, I'll build on that. And she said, so it looks like in the contract, you got an eight day contingency period for the appraisal, 10 day loan, 15 day close. Can you hit that? I said, you give me a contract. I'll prove it to you. We will hit those. We'll hit those dates. And we closed that loan in 11 days. I got a new agent
Starting point is 00:31:26 now. I'm not saying I'm going to get all the business, but at least I'm a horse in the stable. And that's kind of how I've been leveraging what we can do at Streamline that a lot of lenders can't do into building that business and really trying to stay one step ahead. But fast 15, 15 day close with an appraisal. It's awesome. If you're an agent in this market and you're not calling your loan officer asking them, how should I structure this deal? Because we know, we know the timelines that we can hit. That is about as aggressive as you can get. Kelsey does a great job of that. Copenhagen does a great job of that. Your whole team does a great job of that. But we work very closely together to figure out how we put our best foot forward. And a big
Starting point is 00:32:06 piece of that is the speed that we can get these deals closed. Yeah. I mean, again, any advantage you have in especially, you know, look, the market is changing, but it's still, it's still a seller's market. It still is. I mean, you know, there's stuff out there that is starting to send a little bit. Seller expectations are going to have to be tempered a bit to the market. But, I mean, any advantage you have to get offers accepted is always good. I have a generalist question. Yeah. Why is a W-2 employee preferred still with lending?
Starting point is 00:32:34 Because it's guaranteed income. Guaranteed by the person who's not a W-2? No, it's guaranteed by the company. So, for example, a Fannie guideline is you can go. I got that. You see what I'm saying? No, I understand what you're saying. My employee is technically, because nobody's paying my wage. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:32:51 Right. My employee is technically less risky than me. It's because you're Canadian. When you're applying for a mortgage. It's because you're Canadian. It's a Canadian. I'm American. He's right.
Starting point is 00:32:58 It's a Canadian. I'm American. Chad's Canadian. Are you? Very cool. Are you guys going to talk about syrup now? That's him. The Indian story we were talking about. From you? Very cool. Are we going to talk about syrup now? That's him, the Indian story we were talking about.
Starting point is 00:33:08 From Canada? Okay. High five syrups. Today's episode brought to you by Tim Hortons. Get a double-double for a toonie. But no, but that's something like just in terms of lending criteria. So I bring this in not because there's probably programs for me who's strictly you know right a flow-through owner of
Starting point is 00:33:33 companies that pay me that but i generate 100 of it i am somehow more of a risk than a w-2 employee for me right they don't even care it's just as long as you're a W-2. Oh, you've worked there for five years as a W-2 employee, you must be on solid ground because your boss hasn't gone bankrupt. See, I think you're more risky because you touched a mummy. I think eventually that's going to come home to roost eventually. Do you just say checkbox on a mortgage application for that? I just know because I've done some financing.
Starting point is 00:34:05 Is it mortgage fraud if you don't disclose the money touch? I think it should be. Well, but he did disclose. I saw the video. That's a good thing. We all know that. Public knowledge. You're on record notice.
Starting point is 00:34:13 No, but it's, I mean, the mortgage industry, it runs on saleability, right? So they're in the business of selling loans. They don't want to service your loan for 30 years. They want to sell it, then move on on, free up that money and fund more. And so Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, who are the government's largest purchaser of conventional loans, have guidelines. And those guidelines, they like W-2 income because they call it guaranteed income. Isn't that funny? It's guaranteed because I guarantee it. Yeah. I mean, I'll tell you what, man. I guarantee this.
Starting point is 00:34:44 I get a call from uh this happens all the time i don't know what it is with this business but like the pharmaceutical sales medical sales rep people oh yeah a lot of them when they so they start out as w2 and then they get promoted and they call and they're like yeah you know i'm making 250 a year now and i went from w2 to 1099 and you're like like you're. You're dead. They make so much more money. So much more. They write off more in taxes. They have a lot more advantages as a business person.
Starting point is 00:35:11 And that's the problem. And it's like. Because you can't have it both ways. I remember an underwriter told me one time, Joey, you can't have it both ways. You want one government institution, Fannie Mae, to believe you made X. And then you want another government institution, the IRS, to believe you made x and then you want another government institution the irs to believe you made y because you don't pay tax you don't get to have it both ways yeah so that's totally fair if there's a discrepancy you know if if i am filing on my
Starting point is 00:35:36 mortgage that i only do this but i pay taxes we've said this many times before in this show love it or leave it buddy that's. Love it or leave it, buddy. That's it. Love it or leave it. Love it or leave it. America. America. Go back to Regina. If you're self-employed, you make $500,000. Go back into Regina. If you're self-employed, you make $500,000, and you've got tax returns for two years,
Starting point is 00:35:56 and you didn't write that $500,000 down to three, you're okay. You're fine. We'll finance you, Chris. Well, moral of the story for today, if you are someone that is considering getting a loan, man, don't be caught up in what yesterday's rate was. Don't even necessarily care about what today's rate is. Care about how that impacts you in the deal on a monthly basis. Don't buy more home than you can afford. Be shopping payment,
Starting point is 00:36:24 be shopping for homes based on what you can afford. Be shopping payment-based shopping for homes based on what you can afford. And be shopping with a trusted loan person. So Joey, again, works for my mortgage company that we own, Streamline Home Loans. He's an ace. We love him there. And yeah, so just make sure you're dealing
Starting point is 00:36:37 with reputable people. Joe, if they can find you, how can they find you? Anyway, my cell number? What is it, Robert? All right, 702-810-2552 it's mike jones my email address is uh i'm gonna give him colts give my only fan person onlyfans.com it's uh joseph j-o-S-E-P-H dot my last name, C-I-A-G-L-I-A at streamlinehl.com. Got it. Perfect. And so again, if you're looking to buy, focus on what you can. And if you are
Starting point is 00:37:15 someone that is in the business of selling homes, shift the narrative, understand what the rates are, understand how they impact people, understand how to tell stories that are factual that will explain the market to people and move them from top to zero. Because if you're just focusing all your efforts on scripts that help you get in the door to a listing appointment or how to close a buyer's appointment, there's no value to you. You need to educate yourself on the bigger market. So thanks again for joining us for the Power Move. For everybody, if you want more links to what we're talking about, you can click the link below. If you're locked on YouTube, make sure you give me a like and subscribe, hit that notification So thanks again for George for the power move for everybody if you want more links to what we're talking about you click link for
Starting point is 00:37:45 If your locks is on YouTube Make sure you give me a like and subscribe hit that notification button or if you give us four stars on or five stars Whatever it may be on whatever Whatever podcast just like connell law has the board Whatever may be seven or two call and remember if you hated what we did today, tell a friend. Blame me. Yeah, no. If you hated, if you hated, no, if you loved what we did, tell a friend.
Starting point is 00:38:10 But if you hated what we did, tell two. Because it doesn't matter if we're talking good or bad about you. What does it matter, Colt? As long as they're talking about you. As long as they're talking about you at all. That's right. We'll see you next time. Good to know.
Starting point is 00:38:23 Hey, it's John Gafford. If you want to catch up more and see what we're doing, you can always go to thej John Gafford. If you want to catch up more and see what we're doing, you can always go to thejohngafford.com where we'll share any links that we have, things we talked about on the show, as well as links to the YouTube where you can watch us live. And if you want to catch up with me on Instagram, you can always follow me at thejohngafford.
Starting point is 00:38:41 I'm here. Give me a shout.

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