ETF Edge - Crypto Craze: Comeback Around the Corner? 9/12/22

Episode Date: September 12, 2022

CNBC’s Bob Pisani spoke with Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise Investments – along with Ric Edelman, founder of Edelman Financial Services as well as the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professional...s from the Future Proof Conference in Huntington Beach, California. They dove into the crypto craze – including challenges facing the crypto community this summer, what could drive a possible crypto comeback and whether there is any hope for approval of a spot bitcoin ETF in light of recent SEC scrutiny. In the Markets ‘102’ portion of the podcast, Bob continues the conversation with Ric Edelman. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 The ETF Edge podcast is sponsored by InvescoQQQ, Supporting the Innovators Changing the World, Investco Distributors, Inc. Welcome to ETF Edge, the podcast. If you're looking to learn the latest insights on all things, exchange-traded funds, you are in the right place. Every week, we're bringing you interviews, market analysis, and breaking down what it means for investors. I'm your host, Bob Pazani, coming to you today from the Future Proof Conference at the beautiful Huntington Beach, California Resort. I'm in front of the Hyatt Regency, actually. Today on the show, we're diving into the crypto craze with two of the absolute best in the business. We'll get their take on the challenges facing the crypto community this summer, what's going to take for crypto to bounce back in a big way. Plus, with the SEC cracking down on crypto markets, is there any hope of getting a spot Bitcoin ETF approved this year? Here's my conversation with Matt Hogan's Fitwise Investment, CIO, and Rick Aedleman, founder of Aedleman Financial Services as well as the Digital Assess Council of Financial Professionals. Rick, you have been barnstorming the country promoting your new book, The Truth About Crypto, and yet it's been a tough summer for the crypto business.
Starting point is 00:01:10 Price is down. You know, talk about companies going out of business around there. What's your message to the crypto community right now? Well, it's great to be with you, as always, Bob. And if you're going to do this right, then what's been happening in the past nine months is totally irrelevant. You know, it's the same thing for stock investors. What do you tell them with the fact that the market's down to?
Starting point is 00:01:31 20% this year. So what? If you're investing for the next 5, 10 years, this is just an ordinary blip in the marketplace, and you ignore it. But there are too many people who bought at a get-rich quick attitude. They were trying to ride the wave, and, well, there's a difference between a surfer and a sailor. Surfers can, you know, get wiped out, but sailors, they know that the tide is perennial, and they don't worry about it. A difference between a surfer and a circus and a sailor. How about that? Folks, that's an Edelmanism, Mike called it. That's another line. I'm going to steal. There's a difference between a surfer and a sailor. Write that down so I can remember it later.
Starting point is 00:02:05 Absolutely. Same question for you, though, Matt. Bitcoin is just off a nearly two-year low. You've said before there are strong forces, positive and negative, impacting the crypto community. Tell us the positive forces and tell us the negative forces and tell us who's winning. Yeah, it's a really dynamic moment in the market, Bob. On the positive side, you have huge technological advances. Ethereum, the second largest blockchain in the world, is going through a moment.
Starting point is 00:02:31 massive technical upgrade called the merge that's fundamentally transforming it as an investment. You have a lot of institutional investors coming into the market. You have huge venture capital activity that's funding a lot of entrepreneurs and developers. It's really exciting. And on the flip side, you have Jerome Powell that's smashing all macro assets and crypto is definitely a risk-on asset. And you have regulatory pressures, particularly some short-term regulatory pressures here in September that could rear their head. And so that's creating this volatile market where crypto is going up and down. It can't quite figure out which way to go. And I think we're probably stuck there at least through September and maybe for a few months out.
Starting point is 00:03:10 Who's going to break the logjam? Is it the regulatory thing that's got to happen? Look, I think we need to clear the regulatory thing. The regulatory thing I talk about, September is the end of the calendar year for the SEC. So you often see big enforcement actions in September. And there's some big names out there that the SEC is rumored to be investigating. So that's a negative headline looming on the horizon. I think, I think once we get past that, though, crypto is setting up for a very strong next cycle. You have huge technological advances. You have increases in scalability.
Starting point is 00:03:40 Long-term crypto wins. Short-term, I do worry about those negative headlines. So Gensel gave a speech last week where we talked about saying essentially he made a play. He said the SEC should have a major enforcement role in crypto. He said particularly for tokens. He said for exchanges, for lending platforms, even stable coins. He basically said, there are, come in and talk to us. The crypto community seems to prefer the CFTC, though.
Starting point is 00:04:08 They hate Gensler now. Why is it that the world likes the CFTC? Well, it depends on which part of the crypto community you're talking about. Matt and I spend a lot of time in this entire area, and you've got some who don't want any regulation. They consider Gensler a tougher cop than the CFTC. So naturally, they want the CFTC. But the adults in the room recognize that regulation,
Starting point is 00:04:30 is a good thing. Right now, we have 1% engaging in crypto. You're not going to get the other 99% until they have clarity on what the rules of the road are. They don't really care what the rules are. They just want clarity. So if you want institutional investors to engage, the Wall Street firms, the endowments, the pension funds, we're going to need to have clear rules, regulatory and legislative to allow them to engage. And the sooner we get that, the better. We're seeing new rules coming out from Treasury from IRS, from FINRA, from the Fed, and from the SEC and CFC. We've got over 50 bills in Congress right now that are all going to be weighted and evaluated into the next Congress, and all of this is very, very healthy.
Starting point is 00:05:13 It's scaring those who are averse to regs, but it's welcomed by the adults in the room, like us, who realize this is how you get broad consumer and investor. So how do you deal with the anarchist community who say, oh, we have to reg? Well, we don't want much regular. The truth is they don't want any regulation to actually. You ignore them. They've lost and they don't know it. And the sooner we get them out of the way, the better.
Starting point is 00:05:38 Because this is now an adult business with adult opportunities in the field of global commerce. And the sooner we make this technology of the advances Matt was talking about readily developing now, the sooner everybody will benefit and the greater the investment opportunities and impact on the GDP on a global basis will occur. So it's going to be bumpy, as Matt says, for the next, I think you're a little optimistic a few months. I think it might last another year. But when we come out of this, by Q1 of 24, we're going to be looking back on 2021 and 22 as one of the greatest Bitcoin investing opportunities of its life. I want to go back to your point about Gensler, what I consider an implied threat from Gensler. He said, come in, talk to us, and register.
Starting point is 00:06:25 and if you don't, well, there's always enforcement. He had a little footnote there where he referenced that enforcement action in his speech last week that he took recently. September, you mentioned this as the end of the fiscal year. Are we going to see more suddenly suits against exchanges or what have you in the next few weeks? I think there was a pretty direct threat against crypto trading venues, you know, large-scale entities like Coinbase.
Starting point is 00:06:51 I'm not saying there'll be regulatory actions against them in this calendar year, but they're clearly on his horizon. He wants them to come in and register as broker-dealers, as register as national securities exchanges. And as Rick said, that's the long-term future. Regardless of how we get there exactly, getting to that regulatory clarity will be good. But you're absolutely right.
Starting point is 00:07:10 There was an implicit threat. I do think while crypto will react negatively to it and push back against it, the adults in the room want that to happen. We survey financial advisors every year, Bob, ask them why they are or are not investing in crypto. The number one reason they give for not investing is not that it's too volatile, not that it's too hard to value. It's not regulated. It's that it's not regulated. There's no regulatory clarity. Once we solve that, we're going to have a wave of institutional capital.
Starting point is 00:07:36 What it comes down to is that Waldo Pepper has got to go. So one of the greatest movies of the 70s, the great Waldo Pepper, starring Robert Redford. He was a barnstormer in the 19-teens and 20s and having a great time showing up in the cornfields of the Midwest and skis. and scaring the hell out of people and some people dying with these air shows with the biplanes. And finally, the civil aviation administration, the prelude to the FAA, stepped in and said,
Starting point is 00:08:04 you guys got to knock it off. You're scaring consumers and we're trying to build an aviation business for the entire country. The barnstormers have got to get out of the way to allow business to occur. So what's the timeline? A year from now,
Starting point is 00:08:16 do you think tokens are going to be a huge number of tokens are going to be registered with the SEC? How does this happen? He's going to scare the hell out of them and start suing people, and they're going to come in and register. I think a year from now, the large entities, the large trading venues will be in the process of registering with the SEC. I think individual tokens, it's a much longer term. It's not clear whether those will be under the SEC or the CFTC or a new entity.
Starting point is 00:08:41 That may take new legislation. That's probably a couple of years. But look, this is normal for a disruptive technology. In the early days of the Internet, we didn't know whether you've applied state sales tax to Internet retail sales. This is part of the transition. But I do think in the next year, you'll see those large trading venues begin to move towards registration. And let's keep in mind something that Gensler has said, which I think you and I both agree with, of the 10 or 20,000 tokens that are out there, the overwhelming majority have no need to exist.
Starting point is 00:09:10 They're going to go away in the face of this greater regulatory obligation because they're going to realize if they have to do business that conforms with the regulation, it's too expensive, it's too dangerous for them, and they're going to give up. They're going to lose market share. So we're going to see a radical reduction in the number of coins and tokens available, and that'll be healthy as well. And I would just add one last thing that Gensler said, which I think people looked over. He said the vast majority of tokens by number are probably securities, but not necessarily by market capitalization. And that's our view.
Starting point is 00:09:41 Many of the largest securities are really decentralized. Bitcoin extremely decentralized, almost certainly fits into the commodity framework. So I actually think you're going to see a natural division. And most of the large-cap assets that Rick and I spent talking about probably live closer to the CFTC. When you see the natural division, what is the natural division? What's going to distinguish something that would come under the purview of the CFTC as a commodity versus a security? Yeah, I think there are lots of rules and it's a facts and circumstances case. Can you give this a simple way?
Starting point is 00:10:09 Because people ask all the time about this. As a general perspective, is it decentralized and managed by a community, or are there individuals that hold undue influence over the direction of that asset or of, of that token is really the primary point of differentiation. Security's laws are in place in part to protect against insiders knowing things that the rest of the community doesn't know. Decentralization is the key. Decentralization is the key, Bob.
Starting point is 00:10:33 And still, we've actually had a whole 15-minute discussion about crypto and haven't mentioned Bitcoin yet. Still, this is amazing. No Bitcoin ETF and we're not going to have one until what? I don't see a pathway forward on a Bitcoin ETF in the next handful of months. I don't know if it will need a change from a regulatory perspective or just the passage of time, but the short-term outlook is not particularly optimistic. Same view?
Starting point is 00:10:58 Yes. Although I've been saying that we'll see a Bitcoin ETF within the next 18 months, and I've been saying that for seven years. You know, people ask me about what I think of the price of Bitcoin all the time. And I tell them, I'm completely agnostic on this, on the price. I don't know. But one thing that strikes me as a useful metric is rates of adoption. That seems to be very important.
Starting point is 00:11:23 I see BlackRock starting to embrace crypto. Is rate of adoption a good metric to use at this point when more and more people start paying attention or using it or bringing it in? What's a good way to look at the price of Bitcoin for it? I think that the number of people who own, which is measured in wallets very commonly, the number of people who own it is a very good metric. And that number is steadily rising. What's interesting is that despite the fact Bitcoin's down 70% from its high, the number of people who own it is unchanged, which means that those who own it are not phased by this. They recognize this is just, you know, it happens from time to time in the market, and they're not worried.
Starting point is 00:12:01 What I think BlackRock coming in and Schwab coming in reinforces to everyday investors is that Bitcoin's not going away. A few years ago, we might have had a conversation. Will Bitcoin matter in the future? I think that's now been settled. That's what those big companies moving and tell you. It's been settled. It's now how big is that future? And the fact that it's Bitcoin that they chose to launch a fund of is a statement that there's Bitcoin and then there's everything else.
Starting point is 00:12:26 Ethereum is getting an awful lot of attention and deservedly so. They're the Coke and Pepsi of crypto. And that's where investors ought to be really focusing their attention, at least new people into the marketplace. They'll be the last man standing, so to speak. If this thing does blow up, they'll blow up last. One thing I don't hear a lot anymore was what excited me originally about decentralized finance, is the blockchain in general and its value in reducing friction in any
Starting point is 00:12:51 kind of financial transaction, whether you're buying real estate, whether you're buying stocks as a clearing mechanism, or whether you're sending $1,000 to your friend in London. Where are we on that part of it, the really radical disruptive part? I think we're making massive progress. We saw decentralized finance grow up and really work, it even worked through the recent pullback in markets. And you're going to, you're You're starting to see things like the DTCCC look at blockchain as a way to disrupt the incredibly slow settlement times. You're starting to see congressional hearings about whether we can move derivatives exchanges to a platform that cuts out a huge number of middlemen. I think D5 will hollow out the middle office of Wall Street within the next five to 10 years.
Starting point is 00:13:33 I think it's a massive change. This is the technological innovation that is so exciting on a global scale, not just the financial services sector. Salmon Fisherman in Norway, Brightling, the big example. luxury watchmaker, Reggiano Parmigiano, which is one of the biggest cheese makers in Europe, are all now using blockchain technology to track their product to thwart counterfeits and forgeries. So every industry, everywhere, the music industry is using it for songwrites and royalties and concert ticket. Everybody's recognizing this technology can help them operate their business faster, cheaper, safer, with greater transparency, and it's revolutionizing how commerce is done
Starting point is 00:14:17 on a global scale. Yeah, I wish we heard more about that. We tend to, and this is part of the problem when you're doing finance, we cover the horse race. The horse race is what's going up and down today, and so you put up Bitcoin, and that's some kind of representation of the state of the blockchain. It's not. It isn't at all, to me. That's what's really exciting, what Rick just described there.
Starting point is 00:14:41 100%. The most important stat in crypto is the number of active developers working in the space. That really speaks to the growth. And that's at an all-time record high today. Despite prices being down, there are more developers working in crypto than ever before. So this is an ETF show. And professionals watch this to figure out what kind of ETS they want to recommend to their clients. This has been a problem, crypto, for the RIA business. And Rick, you started the Digital Asset Council of Professionals. What's the Council trying to do? Are you an advisor? to RIAs on how to handle the crypto question? Yes, we teach advisors how to talk about this with their clients, how to build a portfolio that includes a crypto exposure. We show them the companies that are available that they can rely on. Bitwise is the oldest, biggest, one of the best in the business. And I'm an investor disclosure of Bitwise and an investor in their funds like BITW. And so advisors recognize that clients are asking.
Starting point is 00:15:41 And advisors don't have a lot of training about this. So we offer the certificate in blockchain and digital assets to teach advisors all about this space so that there is knowledgeable about crypto as they are about stocks. Yeah. This is a wonderful business that seemed to me to get into. I talk to RIAs all the time and I say, what are you doing? What are people asking about? And they said, we're not sure what to do about crypto.
Starting point is 00:16:03 They're asking, but I can't stick my neck out here. How do you handle that legal part? You want to give them something to offer their clients, but you don't. don't want a lawsuit on your hands. So the simple way is to do an ETF. Bitwise has an outstanding ETF in this category where everybody's familiar with ETFs. You're already using them in your client practice.
Starting point is 00:16:21 Clients understand them. They're familiar with them. They like them. And this is instead of investing in Bitcoin or Ethereum, you're investing in companies that are building the foundation for the crypto community. It's sort of like saying, I love cars, but instead of buying Ford, I'm going to buy the company that makes roads and traffic lights.
Starting point is 00:16:38 It's the picks and shovels approach. And Bitwise has a truck. terrific ETF in that space. And this is a very safe, easy way. Compliance, without any concern, compliance or revenues, no risk to reputation or regulation. It's an easy way for advisors to get their clients engaged without any real concern. So they call up and they say, I want to, I have clients, they want a part of their money in crypto. You're bringing BITW. So this is one you want to use. What kind of, uh, do you leave it up to the R.R. in terms of the asset allocation?
Starting point is 00:17:13 My recommendation is 1% allocation into crypto. You've been doing that for years at 1%. And the reason is that 1% isn't scary. If you lose 1%, that's annoying. It's not devastating. And it's a way for people to realize they can put a toe in the water. It's enough to materially improve their return, but if it goes badly, it won't harm you economically.
Starting point is 00:17:35 The data tells us, and Matt has literally written the paper on this with the CFA Institute, is that you can go higher. You can go to 2 to 5% and still be okay. But the funny thing is, that's all we're talking about. Low single digit. Nobody's talking about 30 or 40% in the crypto. But you missed the best part.
Starting point is 00:17:52 You always used to say if you lose the 1% it doesn't matter, but the chances of it doubling or tripling and suddenly have 2 or 3 or 4% and now it's more significant. That's what I always found out of the 1% argument. That's what I thought was interesting. So the RIAs are, what is the state of the RIA community? Are they befuddled? Is the adoption rates increasing? So the level of interest from educational perspective is higher than ever,
Starting point is 00:18:16 and the level of adoption is higher than ever. Bitwise serves over a thousand financial advisors. They haven't been scared by the downturn. They need an answer for their clients who are asking for exposure to crypto. They don't want to stick their neck out, but they can't stick their neck in the sand either. They need to have a solution, and more and more of them are getting comfortable with crypto. We're seeing rising allocations across their book. again, most in the 1 to 5% range, but the number of people who are doing that is growing very quickly.
Starting point is 00:18:43 Industry surveys are showing that nearly half of advisors personally own crypto, but only around 10% are recommending it to clients, which means advisors don't know how to go about it, or they're constrained by their firms. And that's the work that we do, is helping their firms craft a crypto policy that is consistent with their culture and safe from a compliance perspective. Yeah. It's really quite remarkable to see the change in the last few years and the adoption. When I see herbs like BlackRock trying to figure out a way for them to get in without getting in too far, it's sort of like they want to get in, but they don't want to cause too much controversy. That tells me it's that adoption or anything.
Starting point is 00:19:24 That tells me that it's gaining traction. And again, I don't think the price of Bitcoin matters that much. I know for the Get Rich Quick crowd, it does a lot. But you have to keep reminding people it's the technology that's truly. revolutionary, what you talked about. And that's what gets me excited. Technological disruption, financial innovation. Without it, we're all going to be doomed here. We have to, the world gets better with financial innovation and disruptive technology. It doesn't get worse. And you have to keep reminding people about that. And these are two of the smartest people around. I know this is
Starting point is 00:19:56 an ETF ed show, and we normally put up a lot of ETFs tickers and make recommendations about who's buying and selling things. But we have two of the brightest people in the business here. And one of the most interesting innovation conference, innovative conferences that I've been to in a long time. So we went off a little bit, but I think I got learned a lot, and I hope you did too. Now it's time to round out the conversation with some analysis and perspective to help you better understand ETFs. This is the Markets 102 portion of the podcast. They will be continuing the conversation with Rick Aedleman. And Rick, we talked a lot about crypto business on the regular show, I want to get your take for viewers on the markets for the rest of the year. We're down about
Starting point is 00:20:41 20%. We've been fluctuating between 16 and 22% to the downside. A lot of people haven't seen this, particularly a year when bonds are down and stocks are down. It's been a long, long time since that's happened. What's the advice that you're giving people right now? We need to anticipate that there's going to be persistent volatility for months to come. Could be well into Q1, even Q2 of next year. We know what's going on in the world and how uncertain and scary so many elements are. I don't need to go through the list because we're all acutely aware of them, but it means that earnings are going to be under pressure. The definition of recession is being hotly debated. Are we in it yet? And if we're not, we will be. I think everyone's
Starting point is 00:21:26 in agreement. Rates are going to continue to rise for some time to come. We don't know what the November election outcome will be. So the markets are as quizzical and nervous as everybody else. And that means volatility is in our future. So the markets are down about 20% for the year so far. Don't be surprised if they drop further, potentially a lot further. But on the other hand, things could turn rosy in a heartbeat. And therefore, we could get out of this any time. So I think we're going to be churning for a while. And you need to more than ever maintain a long-term perspective. Yeah, and long term means being aware of the trends of history. Exactly right, because this is unusual.
Starting point is 00:22:08 The markets make money four out of five years. When they do drop, 20% is the typical bear market. It's rare for the markets to drop 30% or more. We might see that this year. We saw it in the pandemic. We saw it in 2008. But it's very, very rare. And it's a point of time when people tend to panic.
Starting point is 00:22:27 So if you don't think you can hang in there, you don't have the stomach for it. of the risk tolerance, you need to recognize your own attitude and abilities, because as they say, Wall Street University charges high tuition. Another good Rick Edelmanism. I said one earlier about sailors. I got to write one that one down. But this is a good time to remind people about historical trends. And you mentioned three out of four times. Seventy-two percent of the time the S&P 500 goes up year over year since 1926. More importantly, the overall trend has consistently been up over long periods of time. So the S&P is up 10% or more, 57% of the time since 1926. It's only down 10% or more, something like 14% of the time. So it's fairly rare to have big down years
Starting point is 00:23:18 and not uncommon to have decent up 10% or more years. And this is reinforcement of why you should be investing and why you should be investing in an intelligent way, meaning you diversify, you don't put your entire life savings into the market, you maintain a long-term perspective so that what happens this year is irrelevant, you rebalance during periods of volatility, because right now prices are a lot less than they were in January. So if you were investing in January, you had to like what was going on, which means you must love it now because the prices are lower. So if you do those three things, diversify, rebalance, and maintain a long-term focus, you'll do fun.
Starting point is 00:23:56 And you were mentioning about risk tolerance. And everything you say is right. But my point is maybe you could have a higher risk tolerance than you think, because we're going to live longer through medical technology, I believe. And I always talk about me personally so that it's not some abstract intellectual concept. I'm in my late 60s, approaching 70. I'm anticipating living to 90. I remember having this conversation with you five or six years ago, and I said 85, and you said, Bob, that's wrong.
Starting point is 00:24:27 You should look at 90 and even 95. And I talked to some actuarial friends of mine, and they said, yes, if you can make it to 70, your chances to make it at the 90 are very high, actually, at this point. And I'll go even further than that, Bob. You should be expecting to live to age 100 and beyond. all of the medical scientists, the researchers, the innovations we're doing in AI robotics, nanotech, biotech, bioinformatics, 3D printing. If you're alive in 2030, odds are very high, you'll live to age 100 or beyond.
Starting point is 00:24:57 So the real question is, well, your money lasts as long as you do. And if your money's in bonds, bank accounts, the answer is no. Your money will not last. So you're right. People need to readjust their attitude about portfolio modeling. You need to have much more of your money in stocks for much longer in your life. than what you probably think. What percentage do you like?
Starting point is 00:25:17 By the way, I love the line about if you make it to 100. That's great. George Burns used to have a great line, which is if you make it to 100, you've got it made because very few people who make it to 100 die after that. So that's the famous George Byrne line. So what's the asset allocation?
Starting point is 00:25:35 So let's just stay me. Stay with me. Let's pick it out. I'm 67, okay? Let's say I have about 75%. I own only index funds. I have about 75% stocks.
Starting point is 00:25:46 That sounds about right. I mean, I would have said 60 to 80% broadly for somebody in their 60s who has a long-term perspective who doesn't need to liquidate any time in the foreseeable future. That sounds about right.
Starting point is 00:25:57 I mean, let's put it this way. If you were going to invest and not touch the money for 20 to 30 years, how much of the money would you put in the stocks? And clearly, 75%, as you said,
Starting point is 00:26:09 I don't have a problem with that at all. Now, let me ask about the direction of stocks because we've had a very unusual trend here, and that is the S&P's had an extraordinary run since the financial crisis. Since 2010, it's been up 15% a year in average, and as you know, historically it's about 10%, including the dividend.
Starting point is 00:26:26 So there's a 5% unusual outperformance here. A lot of people attribute this to the Federal Reserve pumping liquidity into the system, which is hard to figure out, but it makes some sense, more money around. If that is true, would it make sense to believe that it, If the Fed is withdrawing liquidity, we might be in for a period of subpar returns.
Starting point is 00:26:46 Yes, I fully expect that. I don't believe we're going to see returns over the rest of the decade that match what we've gotten over the past 12 years. I think that's unrealistic. That doesn't mean you reduce your equity allocation. It means you reduce your expectations. Because if you earn 10 and you thought you were going to get 7, you're thrilled. But if you thought you were going to get 17, you'll be upset. So adjust your expectations to thinking that you're going to get single,
Starting point is 00:27:12 digit returns over the next several years, perhaps for the rest of the decade, rather than loftier. And here's why that's important, Bob. The survey just came out that showed individual investors believe that they're going to earn 17% a year for the rest of the decade. They're crazy. They'll never do that. Well, they got it because the SB makes 15%. We saw this in the late 90s. Exactly. People were expecting 20% returns a year. Exactly. And then 2001 hit, a non-11 hit. And so we have to recognize that it's your expectations that govern your behavior more than anything else. You need to be far more realistic so that you don't give yourself a shock. Adjust your expectations.
Starting point is 00:27:53 Stay invested. Stay diversified. And don't market time. Exactly. It's really not hard. It isn't. And part of the problem is that's the problem. It's not hard.
Starting point is 00:28:05 But it can be a little bit boring. And my person had the most influence on me, Jack Bogle, bless him. used to say, acknowledge that, and used to call it scratching the itch, where he said, put your money in index funds, but take 10%, and go ahead, be a genius, pick stocks, or pick a fund that you think is going to do really well, and try it. You talk about your anecdote about Jack Bogle in your new book, shut up and keep talking, which I love. As you know, I gave you a blurb for your cover.
Starting point is 00:28:36 You were very kind. Because I just love your book and the anecdotes in it. And that's one of the most powerful stories is that we do what we know we're not supposed to do because we are human, emotional creatures, not intellectual computers. And we just get in our own way. The challenge of market timing, day trading, focusing on the short term, is that you have to be right twice, when to get in or out, and then when to do the opposite, when to buy and then when to sell. Being right twice is really hard, and then you've got to pay taxes on it at very high short-term capital gains rates.
Starting point is 00:29:08 it is extraordinarily difficult to be successful as a short-term trader, but it's remarkably easy to do it as a long-term buy-and-holding. Well, that does it for today's ETF Edge podcast, Rick. I want to thank you for being on. Rick Gatelman, of course, a friend of mine for many, many years, and an advisor to many, many people out there. And thank you for writing that wonderful blur from my new book. It's coming out October 18th.
Starting point is 00:29:34 Shut up and keep talking, lessons on life and investing from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. I'll have more to say about that. And what I've learned, and my own voyage in the ETF community, there's a whole chapter on that in the book. And we're going to be talking about that in the weeks ahead. Coming out on October 18th and already up on Amazon. Rick Aedleman, thanks very much for joining us on the ETSA podcast. Always tricked me with you.
Starting point is 00:29:55 And thank you, everybody, for tuning in. InvescoQQQQQ believes new innovations create new opportunities. Become an agent of innovation. InvescoQQQQ. Investco Distributors, Inc.

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