ETF Edge - SpaceX IPO and index dislocation 6/10/26

Episode Date: June 10, 2026

What happens AFTER the SpaceX IPO is arguably the bigger story: there’s a long timeline of huge change for indexes and managers and your ETFs. Hear from one of the experts in the space, no pun inten...ded, who was also on the team that launched the very first ETF in the world.         Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 The EETF Edge podcast is sponsored by InvescoQQQ. Let's rethink possibility. Investco Distributors, Inc. Welcome to ETF Edge, the podcast. If you're looking to learn the latest insights on all things, exchange-traded funds, you're in the right place. Every week we're bringing you compelling interviews, thoughtful market analysis, and breaking down what it all means for investors.
Starting point is 00:00:22 I'm your host, Dominic Chu. Even if you want it to avoid the SpaceX IPO, you and your ETFs might not. be able to avoid them, that is. Here's my conversation with Todd's own chief ETF strategist over at Stratica Securities, alongside Peter Haynes, head of index and market structure research over at TD Securities. Peter, I'm going to start with you with this one first. As somebody whose primary expertise is to understand how market structure works and how markets
Starting point is 00:00:54 function, given some of the underlying components that go into things like indices, just just how much should investors be aware of and cautious of and knowledgeable of what's going to happen with SpaceX entering the marketplace? Thanks, Dom. It's a really, really interesting time for those that follow benchmarks and market structure, for that matter, because obviously the first trade for SpaceX will take place on the NASDAQ exchange on Friday. And obviously, there'll be a lot of attention on the exchange and a lot of strain on the
Starting point is 00:01:27 system. So I know that the industries work very hard to make sure that the plumbing has been tested for this arguably largest IPO in history. So first things first, make sure the plumbing works. From the perspective of benchmarks, what's important to understand is the IPO itself, I don't want to call it just another index addition, but the reality is that the IPO size for SpaceX represents a $75 billion company being added to the index. This is not going to be the entire float of SpaceX being included in the index. That won't happen until shares that are currently on lockup are released to the market. And sometime after that is when those, what I would call much more significant events take place.
Starting point is 00:02:14 The IPO itself is extremely important, but the reality is from an indexer perspective, the significant activity will take place down the road when the locked up shares are released. Now, Peter, if I could just follow up there, does that mean, in your opinion, that Wall Street and its market structure, as we know it right now, that has been prepped for over the course of the past several quarters in anticipation of this particular IPO? Does that mean that in your mind, we have had enough simulations or stress tests on the market overall within indices, within index providers, and then asset managers to properly, I guess, maybe digest this issue. as soon as it comes to market. Yeah, Dom, there are regularly IPOs and first trades, and oftentimes those are significant events. I don't want to overstate the impact of this particular event
Starting point is 00:03:07 and suggest it's something the industry is unable to handle. I'm very confident that the industry will be properly structured to be able to handle the activity that will take place on Friday. From the benchmark perspective, it is a fairly straightforward process. when you add a stock to an index, and I'm sure we'll talk about timing, but just for instance, if you add a stock to an index, let's say it's happening on the fifth day after the IPO, the process is fairly straightforward. Exchange offers what are known as market-on-close mechanisms. Those mechanisms allow investors, if they want to, to get the closing price of a stock.
Starting point is 00:03:44 And from an index fund perspective, if my benchmark is changing on day five at the close, I traded the close, I will track my benchmark. So this is normal course activity in that regard. All right. Todd, an interesting development here as well is just how much the asset management business has anticipated this particular movement. And we already know there are a handful of publicly traded fund instruments out there who have exposure to SpaceX either directly or indirectly and have become plays on a pre-IPO SpaceX view. How much will the fund management and ETF landscape change and evolve and how quickly does it have to do so as soon as this particular IPO comes to market?
Starting point is 00:04:33 I think there's two angles here. I'm very curious post-IPO of those ETFs that have the director in-depth direct exposure. How sticky are the assets, right? Are people just playing this for a pre-RPO arbitrage mechanism of sorts? performance will clearly matter. Are people still believers in the story in the company, or are they just here for a rental party? And then the other one is active management. You're looking at a massive IPO, whether, you know, and especially the lockups come,
Starting point is 00:05:00 I'm very curious to see how the bulk of the vast amount of actively managed ETS out there wait this thing. I'm talking to traditional asset managers who are benchmarked to the S&P or to the Russell 1000 growth, right? How much exposure do they add? Are they believers in the company, too? I think this will be really interesting, and perhaps a source of alpha for them. The thematic approach is also, Todd, something that has been played up a lot. We've seen a massive number of space-related ETS. Some of them rather large, and some of them a bit more on the smaller side,
Starting point is 00:05:31 all come to market with this particular IPO in mind. You mentioned the stickiness of assets, just how much are people in this for the long-term and the ride, or how much are people going to flip this around to try to take the gains they can? the thematic approach is one that has been relatively new to the ETF business. How much does that thematic space-related investing angle change or evolve, given what you expect to see out of SpaceX? It'll evolve, right?
Starting point is 00:05:58 Because you're not, as Peter mentioned, you're not getting a massive amount of exposure in the benchmarks that's going to go in. So if you want more SpaceX, more space exposure, you have to go the thematic route. Now, that can act as a complement to the core of portfolios, which I think is what the thematic case is. but you have to remember as investor, themes are a boom and bust type investment approach, right? Market cycles come in and out. We have bull and bear markets, but the thematics go take that to the next level.
Starting point is 00:06:23 We saw that a few years ago. We saw that in 2020 and 2021 during the kind of the innovation boom. So just be careful out there with the volatility. It's going to come along with single theme ETFs. You have to diversify that thematic exposure. So the evolution is a good way to talk about this with regard to the overall picture for this, Peter. You mentioned the timing aspect of how things. are going to line up with this particular pricing, the issuance, the beginning of trading,
Starting point is 00:06:47 and then some of the major milestones and benchmarks that will happen in the coming weeks and months. From a market structure perspective, from an index perspective, just what exactly do investors need to start paying attention to for how this SpaceX story will play out in the marketplace because of the so-called technical aspects of this particular IPO and some of the things that will follow on in the coming months? I think I should start there, Dom, with the fact that S&P made a controversial decision ultimately to, they had proposed initially that they were going to fast track SpaceX, excuse me, mega caps make them eligible after six months. They decided in their final decision not to allow fast tracking. So that means that mega cap IPOs like SpaceX will need to be seasoned for at least one year on the exchange.
Starting point is 00:07:38 and then after that can be eligible as long as they're profitable. So that means a long window before SpaceX might ever be part of the S&P 500. And I would say personally I didn't agree with that decision. I think it's a major bet by S&P's Index Committee on the future. And I would have preferred to see them allow SpaceX to become eligible sooner. So that leaves us with the other benchmarks and their rebalancing schedule. The three key days in the short run for indexers are the fifth day of trading, which is June 18th. That happens to be Quad Witch. That's the day in which S&P will add
Starting point is 00:08:14 SpaceX to its broad market TMI index and its completion index. And Futsi Gheese will also rebalance another total market indices in the US on that day. And then day 10, which is June 26th, you will see both MSCI and Russell in the US, which happens to be doing its annual revision that day as well. They will rebalance their benchmarks. And then day 15, which should should be July 6th. That will be the day that NASDAQ rebalances the 100 index to reflect SpaceX's IPO shares. Then from there, Dom, we're looking at when do indices adjust for the additional shares that will be freely tradable down the road. Timeline for that is actually pushed out.
Starting point is 00:08:58 NASDAQ should update in September, along with some of the S&P indices. And then MSCI will be end of November and Futsi for the Russell benchmarks will likely be in December. And what that's going to mean is those events that take place later this year will become very significant index events because so many shares will become freely tradable and need to be reflected in the benchmarks. Those are the big index events that we're watching very closely. You know, Todd, I saw you nodding kind of to what Peter was saying right now. What are your thoughts there on that? I thought it was very interesting that he was surprised by the S&P exclusion, and there's nothing wrong with that. I appreciate his opinion on that because what this is doing is.
Starting point is 00:09:38 A, setting precedent that S&P will not add open A an Anthropic when those IPOs happen. And B, you're kind of getting into index wars now, right? If you want SpaceX, you're not buying the S&P 500. You're going to buy the NASDAQ 100 or the Russell 1,000, or Russell 1,000 growth. Over time, depending on how big these companies get and how they perform, that could create some index dispersion,
Starting point is 00:10:00 similar to what you're seeing in emerging markets with Korea, whether they are a emerging market or are not. How exactly, and I'll follow up there, how exactly, Todd, does that then shake out for the fund issuers and sponsors, the fund managers out there? Do ETF providers now, are they at a specific maybe loss or advantage because they are not involved or cannot be involved in SpaceX because the underlying indices that they are meant to track from a passive standpoint do not hold the underlying asset? I would think some of the smaller independent issuers will go to another index provider, and they're going to create an S&P plus SpaceX, large cap plus SpaceX plus anthra.
Starting point is 00:10:42 There's nothing the ETF industry can't do in terms of creativity. So I suspect you're going to see some sort of smart marketing and labeling with that. And maybe even putting a multiplier to increase the weight. We'll see. Peter, one of the other moves that we have to think about as well because of what you just said is this notion, to your point about the index dispersion element here, that there are going to be, I guess, dislocations created in the marketplace right now. what exactly do, I guess, maybe investors and traders and asset managers out there need to be aware of?
Starting point is 00:11:14 What do they need to be aware of with regard to just how much some of the markets may dislocate from traditional norms and or maybe fall towards certain historical norms over the longer term or not? This seems like between SpaceX, Anthropic, and Open AI, that you could have a massive number of catalysts that could change the paradigm for how, indices and those investments that track those indices operate? Well, the U.S. market, give or take, is approximately $60 or $65 trillion. If you add those three IPOs that you suggested based on what press reports have indicated, you might be adding $3 trillion to the overall market cap of the United States once those companies are freely tradable.
Starting point is 00:12:00 It's not like we are completely changing the paradigm of investing. Yes, these will be very big companies. and they should be represented in broad benchmarks, especially ones that focus on large caps. And again, I mentioned my view that S&P has made the wrong decision in not making mega caps eligible for the 500 sooner. But I don't want to overplay Dom the fact that you have three companies, $3 trillion on a base of $65 trillion approximately,
Starting point is 00:12:31 it becomes less than 5% of the overall market. That's not insignificant, but it is, I don't want to overplay and overstate the importance of these three names. The market will continue to function. And I'm not overly concerned about stressors around these events. Obviously, they're very large. There's extra zeros. We're not used to it.
Starting point is 00:12:52 But I do think the industry has worked hard to be prepared for some of the issues that might arise. Do you think, Todd, that the ETF providers out there are equipped right now as things stand to fluidly, be able to execute some of the absorption of these particular IPOs. SpaceX is, by the way, getting a lot more attention. Because of the sheer size, I get it. But, you know, it was open AI for the longest time. Then there was this battle between open AI and Anthropic with regard to who is valued at a higher level and a higher valuation.
Starting point is 00:13:27 How much do we have to look towards SpaceX as a potential blueprint for how these particular issues come to market with open AI and anthropic later on down? the ETF industry will be fine, right? They'll be, especially the big fund providers. They've done this before. The best example was Facebook 12 years ago. I mean, the market was much smaller.
Starting point is 00:13:46 ETAF industry was much smaller, but that was a big deal. Big IPO. Larger float, of course. I think the tricky part with SpaceX is a small float. But they should be able to handle it. And I don't foresee, as Peter mentioned, like any major hiccups. The hiccups could come from the ETFs that currently hold exposure through indirect measures.
Starting point is 00:14:07 I'm not quite sure how that's going to go. That seems a little funky to me. But for ETFs just to add it across the board, I can't imagine it be too much of a problem. Maybe a little frenetic, just given the small float, but they'll be able to handle it. And Peter, a final question to you here. Just what exactly are you looking the most forward to
Starting point is 00:14:26 with regard to what happens in the hours after SpaceX comes to market? And what exactly do you need to be the most, I guess, cautious about from a market structure and index perspective as SpaceX starts trading and in the days to follow. Dom, my whole life has been around indices and the business has changed completely in the last 10 years. It is parabolicly grown. And as assets in the index industry grow so large, we need an entire ecosystem in order for trades that take place in the market, which are sizable. Index funds buying the stock are going to be buying significant amount,
Starting point is 00:15:06 significant amounts of SpaceX. I don't want to try to downplay that too much. What, there is an entire ecosystem created around that, specifically referring to hedge funds that will buy stocks before they're added to the index and the indexers that don't want to take risk. These hedge funds provide liquidity around these events. So Dom, if I'm watching anything closely, it's the amount of grease that exists in the system to ensure that the index funds on the day that they are rebalancing, there's enough liquidity in the market for them to do so without significant movement in price. This process has become very efficient.
Starting point is 00:15:41 And in fact, on index rebalancing days, is often a random event. That's something I'm watching closely. The fact that there's back to back to back index events on day five, day 10, and day 15, that kind of throws a little bit of a wrench into trading strategies around index rebalancings. And you combine that with the expected volatility in the name.
Starting point is 00:15:59 So people will be watching their risks very closely. So that's what I'm watching most closely on the aftermarket once it starts trading. And speaking of volatility, that leads me to my final point for you, Todd. As we had mentioned during our air hit for CNBC during the halftime report today, there are a slate of levered ETF products that are meant to track not just the performance of SpaceX, but then give you 2x daily performance of those shares. Those ETFs are going to come to market right when SpaceX becomes public.
Starting point is 00:16:35 How much will that kind of activity in levered ETF products contribute to what could be a volatile first day, second day of trading for SpaceX shares? So they'll start small, right? It depends on over time, do they start to take in flows? And if the performance of SpaceX as well, they will grow, right? And I suspect there's going to be pretty high demand for this based on the amount of advertisements I'm seeing and the feedback I'm getting and how big that levered ETF industry is becoming. So I assume over time you'll start to see more effects of the levered activity. I do think that this is going to be a really interesting scenario of brand loyalty, because they're all doing the same thing.
Starting point is 00:17:15 They're all going to be roughly priced in similar amounts around 1, 1, 1 and 1⁄4%. Which provider are you getting your levered exposure from? I think a really good test of brand loyalty. It's like the Super Bowl of levered ETS right now. Peter, I'm going to start with you with this one first. as somebody whose primary expertise is to understand how market structure works and how markets function, given some of the underlying components that go into things like indices, just how much should investors be aware of and cautious of and knowledgeable of what's going to happen with SpaceX entering the marketplace?
Starting point is 00:17:58 Thanks, Dom. It's a really, really interesting time for those that follow. benchmarks and market structure for that matter because obviously the first trade for SpaceX will take place on the NASDAQ exchange on Friday. And obviously there'll be a lot of attention on the exchange and a lot of strain on the system. So I know that the industries work very hard to make sure that the plumbing has been tested for this arguably largest IPO in history. So first things first, make sure the plumbing works. From the perspective of benchmarks, what's important to understand is the IPO itself, I don't want to call it just another index addition, but the reality is that the IPO size for SpaceX represents a $75 billion company being added to the index. This is not
Starting point is 00:18:44 going to be the entire float of SpaceX being included in the index. That won't happen until shares that are currently on lockup are released to the market. And sometime after that is when those, what I would call much more significant events take place. The IPO itself is extremely important, but the reality is from an indexer perspective, the significant activity will take place down the road when the locked up shares are released. Now, Peter, if I could just follow up there, does that mean, in your opinion, that Wall Street and its market structure, as we know it right now, that has been prepped for over the course of the past several quarters in anticipation of this particular IPO,
Starting point is 00:19:25 Does that mean that in your mind, we have had enough simulations or stress tests on the market overall, within indices, within index providers, and then asset managers to properly, I guess, maybe digest this issue as soon as it comes to market? Yeah, Dom, there are regularly IPOs and first trades, and oftentimes those are significant events. I don't want to overstate the impact of this particular event and suggest it's something the industry. is unable to handle. I'm very confident that the industry will be properly structured to be able to handle the activity that will take place on Friday. From the benchmark perspective, it is a fairly straightforward process when you add a stock to an index, and I'm sure we'll talk about timing, but just for instance, if you add a stock to an index, let's say it's happening on the fifth day after the IPO, the process is fairly straightforward. Exchange offers what are known as market on close mechanisms. those mechanisms allow investors if they want to to get the closing price of a stock.
Starting point is 00:20:30 And from an index fund perspective, if my benchmark is changing on day five at the close and I trade at the close, I will track my benchmark. So this is normal course activity in that regard. All right. Todd, an interesting development here as well is just how much the asset management business has anticipated this particular movement. And we already know there are a handful of publicly traded fund instruments out there who have exposure to SpaceX either directly or indirectly and have become plays on a pre-IPO SpaceX view.
Starting point is 00:21:08 How much will the fund management and ETF landscape change and evolve and how quickly does it have to do so as soon as this particular IPO comes to market? I think there's two angles here. I'm very curious post-IPO of those ETFs that have the director in-depth direct exposure, how sticky are the assets, right? Are people just playing this for a pre-RPO's mechanism of sorts? Performance will clear than matter. Are people still believers in the story in the company, or are they just here for a rental party?
Starting point is 00:21:38 And then the other one is active management. You're looking at a massive IPO, whether, and especially the lockups come, I'm very curious to see how the bulk of the vast amount of actively managed ETFs, out there wait this thing, right? I'm talking to traditional asset managers who are benchmarked to the S&P or to the Russell 1000 growth, right? How much exposure do they add? Are they believers in the company too? I think that's going to be really interesting and perhaps a source of alpha for them. The thematic approach is also, Todd, something that has been played up a lot. We've seen a massive number of space-related ETFs, some of them rather large and some of them a bit more on the
Starting point is 00:22:17 smaller side, all come to market with this particular IPO in mind. You mentioned the stickiness of assets, just how much are people in this for the long term in the ride, or how much are people going to flip this around to try to take the gains they can? The thematic approach is one that has been relatively new to the ETF business. How much does that thematic space-related investing angle change or evolve, given what you expect to see out of SpaceX? It'll evolve, right? Because you're not, as Peter mentioned, you're not getting a massive, amount of exposure in the benchmarks that's going to go in. Right.
Starting point is 00:22:49 So if you want more SpaceX, more space exposure, you have to go the thematic route. Now, that can act as a complement to the core of portfolios, which I think is what the thematic case is. But you have to remember as investor themes are a boom and bust type investment approach, right? Market cycles come in and out. We have bull and bear markets, but thematics go take that to the next level. We saw that a few years ago. We saw that in 2020 and 2021 during the kind of the innovation boom.
Starting point is 00:23:15 So just be careful out there with the volatility. it's going to come along with single-theme ETFs. You have to diversify that thematic exposure. So the evolution is a good way to talk about this with regard to the overall picture for this, Peter. You mentioned the timing aspect of how things are going to line up with this particular pricing, the issuance, the beginning of trading, and then some of the major milestones and benchmarks that will happen in the coming weeks and months. From a market structure perspective, from an index perspective,
Starting point is 00:23:43 just what exactly do investors need to start paying attention to, for how this SpaceX story will play out in the marketplace because of the so-called technical aspects of this particular IPO and some of the things that will follow on in the coming months? I think I should start there, Dom, with the fact that S&P made a controversial decision ultimately to, they had proposed initially that they were going to fast-track SpaceX, make it L, excuse me, mega-caps, make them eligible after six months. they decided in their final decision not to allow fast tracking. So that means that mega cap IPOs like SpaceX will need to be seasoned for at least one year on the exchange. And then after that can be eligible as long as they're profitable. So that means a long window before SpaceX might ever be part of the S&P 500. And I would say personally I didn't agree with that decision.
Starting point is 00:24:36 I think it's a major bet by S&P's index committee on the future. And I would have preferred to see them allow space. to become eligible sooner. So that leaves us with the other benchmarks and their rebalancing schedule. The three key days in the short run for indexers are the fifth day of trading, which is June 18th. That happens to be Quadwich. That's the day in which S&P will add SpaceX to its broad market TMI index and its completion index.
Starting point is 00:25:05 And Futsi Gies will also rebalance another total market indices in the US on that day. And then day 10, which is June 26th, you will see both MSCI and Russell in the U.S., which happens to be doing its annual revision that day as well. They will rebalance their benchmarks. And then day 15, which should be July 6th, that will be the day that NASDAQ rebalances the 100 index to reflect SpaceX's IPO shares. Then from there, Dom, we're looking at when do indices adjust for the additional shares that will be freely tradable down the. the road. Timeline for that is actually pushed out. Nasdaq should update in September, along with some of the S&P indices, and then MSCI will be end of November, and Futsi for the Russell benchmarks will likely be in December. And what that's going to mean is those events that take
Starting point is 00:25:57 place later this year will become very significant index events because so many shares will become freely tradable and need to be reflected in the benchmarks. Those are the big index events that we're watching very closely. Todd, I saw you nodding kind of to what Peter was saying right now. What are your thoughts there on that? I thought it was very interesting that he was surprised by the S&P exclusion, and there's nothing wrong with that. I appreciate his opinion on that because what this is doing is, A, setting precedent that S&P
Starting point is 00:26:26 will not add open Aanthropic when those IPOs happen. And B, you're kind of getting into index wars now, right? If you want SpaceX, you're not buying the S&P 500. You're going to buy the NASDAQ 100 or the Russell 1,000, or Russell 1,000. growth. Over time, depending on how big these companies get and how they perform, that could create some index dispersion similar to what you're seeing in emerging markets with Korea, whether they are a emerging market or are not. How exactly, and I'll follow up there, how exactly, Todd, does that then shake out for the fund issuers and sponsors, the fund managers out there?
Starting point is 00:27:02 Do ETF providers now, are they at a specific maybe loss or advantage because they are not involved or cannot be involved in SpaceX because the underlying indices that they are meant to track from a passive standpoint do not hold the underlying asset. I would think some of the smaller independent issuers will go to another index provider and they're going to create an S&P plus SpaceX,
Starting point is 00:27:25 large cap plus SpaceX plus anthra... There's nothing the ETF industry can't do in terms of creativity. So I suspect you're going to see some sort of smart marketing and labeling with that. Maybe even putting a multiplier to increase the weight. We'll see. Peter, one of the other moves that we have to think about as well because of what you just said
Starting point is 00:27:44 is this notion, to your point about the index dispersion element here, that there are going to be, I guess, dislocations created in the marketplace right now. What exactly do, I guess, maybe investors and traders and asset managers out there need to be aware of? What do they need to be aware of with regard to just how much some of the markets may dislocate from traditional norms and or maybe fall towards certain historical norms over the longer term or not, this seems like between SpaceX, Anthropic, and Open AI, that you could have a massive number of catalysts
Starting point is 00:28:21 that could change the paradigm for how indices and those investments that track those indices operate. Well, the US market, give or take, is approximately $60 or $65 trillion. dollars. If you add those three IPOs that you suggested based on what press reports have indicated, you might be adding $3 trillion to the overall market cap in the United States once those companies are freely tradable. It's not like we are completely changing the paradigm of investing. Yes, these will be very big companies and they should be represented in broad benchmarks, especially ones that focus on large caps. And again, I mentioned my view that that S&PB,
Starting point is 00:29:03 has made the wrong decision in not making mega caps eligible for the 500 sooner. But I don't want to overplay Dom the fact that you have three companies, $3 trillion on a base of $65 trillion approximately, it becomes less than 5% of the overall market. That's not insignificant, but it is, I don't want to overplay and overstate the importance of these three names. The market will continue to function. and I'm not overly concerned about stressors around these events. Obviously, they're very large.
Starting point is 00:29:37 There's extra zeros. We're not used to it. But I do think the industry has worked hard to be prepared for some of the issues that might arise. Do you think, Todd, that the ETF providers out there are equipped right now as things stand to fluidly be able to execute some of the absorption of these particular IPOs? SpaceX is, by the way, getting a lot more attention. Because of the sheer size, I get it. Right.
Starting point is 00:30:04 But, you know, it was open AI for the longest time. Then there was this battle between open AI and Anthropic with regard to who is valued at a higher level and a higher valuation. How much do we have to look towards SpaceX as a potential blueprint for how these particular issues come to market with open AI and anthropic later on down the line? The ETF industry will be fine, right?
Starting point is 00:30:25 They'll be, especially the big fund providers. They've done this before. The best example was Facebook 12 years ago. I mean, the market was much smaller. ETAF industry was much smaller, but that was a big deal. Big IPO. Larger float, of course. I think the tricky part with SpaceX is a small float.
Starting point is 00:30:41 But they should be able to handle it. And I don't foresee, as Peter mentioned, like any major hiccups. The hiccups could come from the ETFs that currently hold exposure through indirect measures. I'm not quite sure how that's going to go. That seems a little funky to me. But for ETFs just to add it across the board, I can't imagine it be too much of a problem. Maybe a little frenetic, just given the small float, but they'll be able to handle it. And Peter, a final question to you here.
Starting point is 00:31:09 Just what exactly are you looking the most forward to with regard to what happens in the hours after SpaceX comes to market? And what exactly do you need to be the most, I guess, cautious about from a market structure and index perspective as SpaceX starts trading? and in the days to follow. Dom, my whole life is being around indices, and the business has changed completely in the last 10 years. It is parabolicly grown, and as assets in the index industry grow so large, we need an entire ecosystem in order for trades
Starting point is 00:31:47 that take place in the market, which are sizable. Index funds buying the stock are going to be buying significant amounts of SpaceX. I don't want to try to downplay that too much. What? There is an entire ecosystem created around that, specifically referring to hedge funds that will buy stocks before they're added to the index and the indexers that don't want to take risk. These hedge funds provide liquidity around these events. So Dom, if I'm watching anything closely, it's the amount of grease that exists in the system to ensure that the index funds on the day that they are rebalancing, there's enough liquidity in the market for them to do so without significant movement in price. This process has become very efficient. And in fact, on index rebalancing days is often a random event. That's something I'm watching closely. The fact that there's back to back to back index events on day five, day 10, and day 15, that kind of throws a little bit of a wrench into trading strategies around index rebalancings.
Starting point is 00:32:43 And you combine that with the expected volatility in the name. So people will be watching their risks very closely. So that's what I'm watching most closely on the aftermarket once it starts trading. And speaking of volatility, that leads me to my final point for you, Todd. As we had mentioned during our air hit for CNBC during the halftime report today, there are a slate of levered ETF products that are meant to track not just the performance of SpaceX, but then give you 2x daily performance of those shares. Those ETFs are going to come to market right when SpaceX becomes public.
Starting point is 00:33:22 How much will that kind of activity in levered ETF products contribute to? to what could be a volatile first day, second day of trading for SpaceX shares. So they'll start small, right? It depends on over time, do they start to take in flows? And if the performance of SpaceX as well, they will grow, right? And I suspect there's going to be pretty high demand for this based on the amount of advertisements I'm seeing and the feedback I'm getting and how big that levered ETF industry is becoming. So I assume over time you'll start to see more effects of the levered activity.
Starting point is 00:33:54 I do think that this is going to be a really interesting scenario of brand loyalty because they're all doing the same thing. They're all going to be roughly priced in similar amounts around 1, 1, 1 and a quarter percent. Which provider are you getting your levered exposure from? I think a really good test of brand models, like the Super Bowl of levered ETS right now. Over the last few decades, technology has transformed our world in amazing ways. Through it all, Invesco QQQETF has connected investors to the forefront of innovation. Access the Future Today with Invesco QQQ.
Starting point is 00:34:28 Let's rethink possibility. There are risks when investing in ETFs, including possible loss of money. ETF risks are similar to those of stocks. Investments in the tech sector are subject to greater risk and more volatility than more diversified investments. The NASDAQ 100 index includes the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the NASDAQ. An investment cannot be made directly to an index. Before investing, consider the funds, investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. VisitInvestco.com for a prospectus containing this information.
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