ETF Edge - The man shorting Cathie Wood’s ARKK, now going ultra-long

Episode Date: May 16, 2022

CNBC's Bob Pisani spoke with Matthew Tuttle, Managing Director of AXS Investments and CEO of Tuttle Capital Management, Ben Slavin, Global Head of ETFs at B-N-Y Mellon and John Davi, CIO of Astoria Portfolio Advisors. From the man who brought us an ETF that enables investors to go short Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Fund, we now have an ETF that allows investors to go two times long Cathie Wood’s ARKK fund. They discussed amplifying big bets on and against disruptive tech names like Tesla, Roku and Twilio. Plus, how is the dizzying volatility impacting the ETF world? In the ‘Markets 102’ portion of the podcast, Bob continues the conversation with John Davi from Astoria Portfolio Advisors. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The ETF Edge podcast is sponsored by InvescoQQQQ, supporting the innovators changing the world. Investco Distributors, Inc. Welcome to ETF Edge, the podcast. If you're looking to learn the latest insights on all things exchanged traded funds, you're in the right place. Every week, we're bringing you interviews, market analysis of breaking down what it all means for investors. I'm your host, Bob Pisani, today on the show from the man who brought us an ETF that enables investors to short Pathy Woods, Arc Innovation Fund. We now have another one, an ETF that allows investors to go two times long, Kathy Woods Arc Fund, the opposite. We'll talk about amplifying big bets on and against disruptive technology names like Tesla, Roku, and Twilio.

Plus, how is this dizzying volatility impacting the ETF world? Here's my conversation with Matt Tuddle. He's the manager of Access Investments and CEO of Tuttle Capital Management, along with Ben Slavin, global head of ETFs at BNY Mellon and John Davy, CIO of Astoria, Portfolio. advisors. Now, Matt, your ARC short ETF, it's up almost, what, 75% this year? Two weeks ago, you launched an ETF that's two times long the ARC ETF. So if ARC is up 1%, it goes up 2% on a daily basis, those of you who can't calculate that. So you now have this leveraged long ARC ETF. Explain the motivation. You got a long one and a short one as well. What's the motivation here?

Yeah, so, you know, we launched the short one to be, you know, in our mind, a better hedge for kind of what we saw coming in the macro environment and because there was so much demand at the time for some way to bet against Arcay. The long one we just recently launched TARC because, I mean, you know, there's a lot of, you know, back and forth on RK, but the one thing that people can agree on is that, that's an ETF that's going to move and it's going to have large moves. So we wanted to give investors kind of that tactical ability to play both sides of it. Plus, we think it's an interesting opportunity for, you know, maybe some of the ARC shareholders who are really committed to the story and, you know, might hold it at a loss. There could be some interesting planning opportunities there for them.

Now, imagine everybody being Kathy Wood and having someone said, up a fund just to short your ideas. I asked her how she felt about that while we were at the ETF conference in Miami Beach last month. Here's what she said. There hasn't been another situation where an ETF has been created to bet against another ETF. And my attitude towards that is, wow, they are so sure that American innovation is not going to be a sensible place to invest, that they have created a fund to short our strategy. From my point of view, if we are right, and I trust our research,

they're doing no research. They're just making a judgment call, I think, on valuations. But based on our research, if we're right, they're going to have to cover their shorts. So, Matt, what do you say to that? She says it's not good to short American innovation. What's the response there? Yeah, you know, there's a lot of things I'd want to say.

I don't think we have enough time. enough time for all of it. But, you know, what we're providing here is, is tools. So, you know, she went on CNBC at one point and did say, hey, RK is the new innovation index. Every index out there, there are tools that allow you to go long. There are tools that allow you to go short. So that's what we're trying to do here. You know, I would also just point out that just because one person says a company is innovative, doesn't make it so. And, you know, there's certainly a lot of demand from people out there to go short that portfolio. Yes, John Dalvi, let me bring you in here.

Is this the future, what we're talking about here? Kathy Wood brought active management to stardom. She's not seen significant outflows in her fund, which is remarkable. Even she admits that. So what's the future here? Will we be seeing a spate of ETFs shorting or going along other people's? ideas, or is Kathy Wood kind of unique situation? That's a great question, Bob.

You know, I've spoken positively about Kathy Wood. You've asked me before. I kind of like the vision that she has. I also think that, you know, the investors need more tools out there in the marketplace. And I think Matt and Access is doing a good job bringing more tools available. You know, this is a new space, obviously, right? So only time will tell.

But I think my bottom line is that the more tools out there, the better because there's more optionality for those end investors who do believe in her vision that they can use that as part of their portfolio hygiene program. You know, Matt, it does seem like we will be seeing more of this. No, now two weeks ago, you launched the S-Web crane shares, the China Internet, which is an inverse bet

on another popular ETAF, the crane shares China Internet ETF. You know, what's going on there? I mean, it seems the answer is, yes, there's going to be more of this, Matt. The answer is yes, there's going to be more of it. So, yeah, we did launch S-Web. And again, the thesis there is, you know, there's a lot of stuff going on in China that is really scary from an investment standpoint. And we think China at this point is about as close to uninvestable as you can get.

So, again, in our mind, nothing against Kweb, just another tool. for investors to hedge their portfolio. We've got a whole other slate of ideas. And so expect a lot more stuff coming from access throughout the year, a lot kind of related to this concept. Yeah. You know, Matt, I always hesitate asking people to explain leverage and inverse ETF.

But the viewers get confused. It's always tricky explaining how they reset every day. That's a hard thing to get your head around, which is how you get arc down, what, 54% year-to-date and the ARC short ETIP is up 73%. It's not an inverse except on a daily basis. Can you reiterate how this works on a daily basis? I can. Again, it's not easy to explain.

So, you know, on any one day, yeah, you know, SARC is going to be negative 1x RK. But remember, returns are compounded. So if you look at the return over the year for both, those are compounded. returns. So in a situation with a levered ETF, when the underlying goes down pretty much in a straight line, the levered ETF is going to do better than you think it would. And if RK is basically going up in a straight line,

Sark is going to do a little bit worse than you think it would. So it's really the glide path of returns. Yeah, that's a good point. Ben, I want to bring you in here. You've got a somewhat, unique perspective on ETF. So you see a lot of the flows in and out of this business. You're engaged in a lot of the plumbing of the business, the internal. Broadly, how are you seeing all this volatility impacting the ETF community? For example, we've seen the issuance slow down. It looks like that way to me, at least in response to the volatility. Is ETF issuance slowing down? I mean, what are you seeing around

all this volatility in the ETF world? Well, product development continues to run at a hot pace. Last year, we were at an all-time record of about 50 ETFs a month. And we've seen that slow this year to about 35 ETFs a month, which is still, you know, on a historical basis, incredibly high. So our queue at B&Y Mellon continues to be as large as it ever was for new products coming to market. So what are we seeing? Well, most of those products are really actively managed. So the majority of the products that are in the queue and were also launched over the last couple of years,

on our platform, and I think it's fair to say industry-wide, we're actively managed. And if you consider sort of non-market cap-weighted or non-traditional market cap indexes, that number gets up to higher than 90% if you think about that in terms of a broader definition. But it's coming from all angles. So we're seeing that product development from new issuers.

We're seeing it from existing issuers who are trying to position themselves in this part of the market cycle. and also we're just seeing plain old new entrants coming to market. And just in the last few weeks, we've seen Morgan Stanley, Alliance Bernstein, Matthews, Asia, and others all coming to market are announcing their intent to come into the ETF market. So we expect that to continue to run high, but the volatility will cool things off a bit. I want to go back to actively manage ETFs in a few moments. But I'm going to ask you, John, in the last few.

weeks, I've had numerous guests on the ETF Edge with alternatives to stocks and bonds. Everyone's got an alternative, everything from leverage and inverse, which we talked about, to defined outcome ETFs. I notice you've launched the story of inflation sensitive ETF, PPI at the end of 2021, which looks for companies that would benefit from inflation. So when I look at this, I see a lot of commodity companies in here. I see New Corps. I see Marathon Oil in there. You've told me before there's a bull market in inflation sensitive assets, but there's a recession for long duration assets. Can you kind of explain that? What's your market view right now where we are? Sure. So if you just think about what we talked about before, Kathy Wood, these are all long duration, you know, strategies, you know, companies that are going to make their cash flow, 10, you know, years from now, maybe even longer.

Maybe some of them are not ever going to be profitable. So the market doesn't like that. And as you eloquently point, on the show, you know, that that fund is down 50% year to date. You know, the NASDAQ is down 25% year to date. What's working, what investors want is known like the fine cash flows up front, right? So things that are a dividend, you know, value-centric stocks, they're in bold, right? Obviously, commodities, energy equity, commodity equities, you know, they're benefiting because inflation is rampant. So PPI, which is the access story, inflation-sensitive VTF. So story is a sub-advisor, access, you know, Matt's firm is the advisor. you know, we thought that would be beneficial

because when we looked around the ETF landscape, there weren't too many ETFs out there that were inversely correlated with stocks and bond that would provide a hedge. So when I look at alternatives, I think, and I've been on the show before, Bob, where we've said always carry alternatives. Think of it like insurance, right?

Don't leave your house without the umbrella during a rainstorm, right? Because the cost of that umbrella is going to skyrocket when you're out in Manhattan trying to look for the umbrella. So things like PPL, are up 7% year-to-date, 7-8%, NASDAX down 25, S-A-P's down 15, right? So that's an alternative in my eyes.

You know, we also have this long, short, ETF, BTAL. You know, that's up 15% year-to-date. So, you know, I think you're asking about my active management views, you know, where we are in the cycle. Ben just mentioned that, you know, I think there's still a lot of risks out there in the marketplace. I still think that you want to be tilting away from tech and growth because I think those are long duration strategies, and the market's not liking that. And you want to be tilting towards

value, dividend-paying stocks, hedge your inflation risk. That's what our firm is doing, story advisors, for our investors. Yeah. So I guess this is for anybody, but I'm wondering about this. Ben, maybe you have an idea, John or Matt. In the last few weeks, I have seen very large volume in leverage and inverse ETS, particularly around the triple Qs. Maybe this makes some sense. I mean, these products have to rebalance every time, just like everybody else is in the leverage and inverse world. But there's been some comments recently that these particular leverage and inverse ETS might be able to exacerbate volatility on extreme days. Does anybody have any thoughts on that? I don't know, Ben, if you have any thoughts on that? We've seen this particularly

around Triple Q's really, really big volume in these leveraged inverse ETFs. Yeah, from my standpoint, this is a movie we've seen before. And certain ways, we've seen that volume tick up in leverage and inverse ETFs. We've also seen ETF volume honestly explode across the board. So if you look at not just those products, but just if you take an industry view, I think the number was around 16 trillion in total volume. And if you annualize that out, we would see a record year. I think it would shatter the record from, you know, ETF's contribution and volume. And there has been this narrative out there, you know, around ETF's role in pushing the markets around.

But certainly, you know, we have not seen, you know, sort of any new evidence, certainly at this point in the cycle, that, you know, that's in fact happening. It just seems to be that, again, investors are increasingly choosing to use ETFs, whether it be to speculate a tool or a way to get exposure at this point in the market cycle, and that the data is incredibly clear on that. Yeah. Any thoughts in particular, Matt, on this?

I mean, you're sort of in this business right now, the leverage and inverse ETF business. You know, this has been controversial for years, leverage and inverse ETFs. It seems like the SEC wants to believe that it may play a part in some of the volatility. It's very hard to actually, you know, say definitively one way or another,

but the SEC certainly seems to be sort of interested in this potential idea. What is your response to them, when the head of the SEC says we're concerned about leverage and inverse products in general. Yeah, so, you know, I think whenever you come out with stuff that's innovative, especially kind of first of its kind type of stuff, you know, like we're trying to do, you know, I think you've got, you know, the regulators trying to kind of stay ahead of it and enwrap their head around it. You know, there's so much out there. I mean, you know, you could argue

that investing in RK is dangerous. You know, look at where it's gone from February 2020 until now. You know, to me, more tools are better. And, you know, so don't focus as much on that, but maybe focus on the education, you know, focus on, you know, the qualifications of the people who are selling the tools.

But, you know, I wouldn't restrict investor access to a lot of these tools. And I think, you know, as more and more of this comes through, and I think as the regulators see that, no, these things aren't really doing anything to the marketplace. You know, I think what's going on right now will eventually just blow over. Yeah. John, any thoughts on that?

I mean, you're a guy actually on the front line. You actually have to recommend portfolios of ETFs. Most people who are involved in leverage and inverse ETF say, well, you know, these are for active traders who have to know what they're doing. They're not for long-term investors. What's your view on leverage and inverse ETFs, John? I'm kind of along the lines of Matt where, you know, more tools are better than less. You know, they're already out there. So, you know, adding additional tools on the margin, you know, in the spaces that access is launching.

You know, I don't think that that's bad. I think that's good. you know, it always creeps up in client conversations, right? There's just this inevitable itch to kind of get exchange-traded leverage. And I think the sponsors have always done a good job educating the people. The fact that liquidity spikes when volatility spikes, you know, I think that's a good thing, right? I'd be more worried if there's like, you know, $50 billion in leverage in Denver CTS, volatility spikes and liquidity, you know, decline. So I spent 20 years on a trader floor, Bob.

I've seen the hedging mechanics of how these issuers hedge. I don't think there's a problem. I think the market always likes to kind of pin, you know, something on these firms. But in the end, I think they're just doing what they're intended to do. So it's kind of buyer beware, right? Make sure you know what you own. Yeah, that's for sure.

Ben, one of the trends we're seeing, and you mentioned this, is more actively managed ETS, particularly in bonds. Is this volatility accelerating the creation of more active ETFs? What are you seeing this year? Without a doubt, again, certainly we've seen a number of actively managed products come to market, specifically in the fixed-income arena. And honestly, this was anticipated. It really goes back a couple years ago to the ETF rule that was passed by the SEC,

that frankly made it easier for issuers to come to market also quicker. And here we are a couple of years later, and that's exactly what we're seeing, and it's well positioned for this point in the market cycle. So really, we've built some technology to help facilitate that, you know, to further accelerate that sort of product development sort of flywheel. And what we're seeing is quite a bit of innovation. Now, certainly, issuers like John and Matt and many others are coming to us with really a wide range of complexity that we're able to package, inside an ETF and do so in a very low-cost efficient manner. And so it's running the gamut from what I would call traditional active fixed income strategies. And these are money that is coming out of mutual funds, just simply into an ETF structure with something similar. And very innovative products that are out there, you know, a couple of which we just mentioned

and others, right, that are looking to play, you know, at this point in the market cycle that are really targeted for this moment. Well, Ben, what are other products coming to market to address volatility? It's a little head spinning, frankly, following this as a journalist. We have target outcome products out there that use options to provide a market hedge, for example. That is really difficult to explain on television. I wonder kind of what the target is for that kind of product, for example.

But it's one of many products that are out there right now to sort of address this problem of stocks down and bonds down? Well, it's still difficult to explain on television, but I would say that, you know, you are seeing no shortage of these products. So it's, you know, I think, Bob, the target or defined outcome products absolutely seeing quite a bit of interest from investors. Again, they're providing some kind of downside risk protection. But again, these are sophisticated products that, you know, do require explanation and careful

consideration by investors. There are other products that are coming to market that are, you know, like PPI, but others like from issuers like simplify a product like P-Fix or, you know, or SPD that are trying to, you know, provide some kind of other inflation hedge or a way to profit in this type of environment. There are others who are also trying to provide products that really are some kind of volatility dampener or offset to the rest of the portfolio. So these are products like manage future strategy or other ways to play the interest rate curve like Ival and others that are ultimately designed, again, to provide some kind of non-correlated exposure or simply a way to, you know, again, try to find some yield or some alpha at this point in the market cycle.

I know I have been discussing leverage in inverse ETFs a lot, but I see a real trend here, Matt. You've got a spate of single-stock ETFs coming, leverage and inverse. Is there really an interest in leverage and inverse bets on Tesla and Nvidia, for example? That seems to be a bit of a thing right now. There's stuff out there in registration, right? I mean, and I think that single-stock ETFs could revolutionize stock trading for, specifically the retail investor.

I mean, right now, if you want to get levered exposure on, On the long side, you'd either use margin or you'd buy call options, you know, both of which there are really good reasons why you might not want to do that. On the short side, the only way to get levered exposure is put options. And again, a lot of really good reasons why you might not want to do that. So I could really see a future where, you know, all the big names out there, you know, have 2x long and 2x short ETFs that if investors want levered exposure both ways, they can easily use those ETFs to do it.

Yeah, and I know there are other ETF companies out there that have also got similar long and short, single stock ETFs in registration. I know they already exist in Europe. I guess my point here is look at just one bet that Kathy Wood had, the mileage you're getting out of this, this one bet, this Sark. ETF. I think that we're going to be dealing with leverage and inverse

ETFs on single stock futures this year. And I think it's going to be very interesting how the market responds to them overall. Certainly you've had success with Sark. We'll see how it goes with single stock leveraged and inverse ETFs. Now it's time to round out the conversation with some analysis and perspective to help you better understand ETFs. This is the market's 102 portion of the podcast today. We'll be continuing the conversation with John Davy from a story of portfolio advisors. John, thanks for sticking around. I always like having a guy who's actually a money manager on when things really get crazy,

because your job is to actually recommend portfolios, and you're an ETF guy, and so you recommend ETFs. And I want to have you on now just to get your perspective. I'm particularly interested in your perspective on the alternative to bonds. During the ETF conference, you and I were both out a month ago, the independent advisors, the RIAs, the registered independent. and advisors were particularly freaked out about the old 60-40 stock bond portfolio, which they seemed to think was in serious trouble. I think we all agree it is. And you have some very particular

ideas about that. You said to me several times there, forget 60-40 stocks, bonds. Go with 50-20-30. What do you mean by 50-20-30? Give us a couple things you're specifically recommended to your clients right now. Sure. So the 60-40, 60 being equity, 40-being bonds, I'm saying now is, you know, 50-ish percent stocks, 20 percent in bond, and I'll explain that in a second. And 30 percent should be an alternative. Alternatives that have equity-like risk, but have, like, lower volatility. That 30-per-per-per-cent bucket can be things like, you know, option override in where you get, you know, a coupon, something that yields a decent amount. So, Jake Morgan has a CTF. JEPI, it gives you, like, an 8 percent yield.

So, you know, it goes along a bunch of stocks in the S&P 500, and it sells call options against it. You know, that's the type of thing that I think could be like a surrogate against bonds, you know, it has equity-like risk. So I just think, Bob, that, like, the bonds were this great investment. They've gone up, you know, the last, you know, five, ten years because interest rates went down, so the bond prices went up. now we're at a period where, you know, bond yields are starting to go up, so bond prices are going down? And, you know, are we going to keep going up in bond yields? I don't know for sure, but I just know that bonds are extremely overvalued.

So historically, they were able to, like, provide some protection in the portfolio, and now we just have to find other ways to kind of get that protection. So that could be in the alternatives bucket. So I think, like, now is the time you want to really kind of be more active in your portfolio. you were you were very big on on quality like QAL which are stocks that are essentially strong balance sheet growing their earnings quality is a little bit of a nebulous term but QAL is one I know you've talked about before that's the quality bucket here you've also talked about inflation sensitive assets I know you've got an

ETF out right now the PPI the access historic inflation sensitive ETIP it owns mostly commodity stocks, PPI, that's also out there in the inflation sensitive group. And then you talked about dividend payers a lot. There are a number of them that are out there very commonly, but SPYD, the S&P high dividend ETF, the spider high dividend, SPYD, is out there. It seems like 6040 is completely dead. 8020 is the new 6040 at this point with a commodity or inflation kicker like you got there with PPI, right?

Yeah, I mean, look, I think in general what we're seeing is, like, we have a tremendous amount of volatility. Obviously, the S&P is down about 20%. The average recession sell-off in the S&P is about 27%. So we're kind of right at that nexus point, right? Now, that's an average, and the bears will say, okay, you know, there's been times where SEP is down 40-50%. So I think we just want to be careful, right, because, you know, A, marks a tough of time, and

I don't think you should have a time markets, but I do think when I see like Google, right, I can't live without my Google, my Apple. Google's like an 18p ratio, right? I mean, Google's not going anywhere. So Google's been indistremently thrown out like the baby with the bathwater because, you know, we've had this big sell-off and technology growth stock. So I think now you want to be nibbling. And what I'm saying is to test your feed in the water, I would be nibbling with a higher-quality

growth stocks. And you get some of that in the Q-U-A-L-E-T-F. And then people say to me, okay, what's your kind of preferred allocation? And, you know, we do this set of story advisors, as you said, Bob. And I say, look, you never want to be all in on one factor or one sector. So to play risk on, to kind of get your equity risk up, I think a third, you know, kind of quality growth, a third dividend paying stocks, because there's a big market now for any company that pays your cash flow, known that there's a cash flow front that's in the value bucket. And then I think, you know, a third could be in like things that that protect you,

inflation because I don't think inflation is going away anytime soon. I think we'll be talking about much higher inflation levels in six months, 12 months for now. So are we at peak Fed halkishness, peak bearish sentiment right now? The only reason I doubt this is we have to answer the question, is there going to be a recession or not? I don't know. What is your answer to that? What do you tell clients when they ask you that? So, you know, in my view, when I look at all, the macroeconomic bearables. And I think, okay, because I've lived through some horrific bear markets, you know, obviously 2008.

The whole global financial system was basically shut down, right, for like a year to, a year and a half or two years, right? So the SP went down 50%. That was a unique risk that the market didn't know how to price, okay? March 2020, COVID, the entire world shut down, right? So forget about GDP. I mean, we were down like 20, 30% GDP growth, you know, during that quarter. So I think like, you know, those 50% drawdowns, which are very rare, I don't think the current economy is like that.

I think we know how to price inflation risk. You can just look at the 1970s and see what happened with stocks, bonds, commodities in the 1970s and how the market priced that risk. So at the end of the day, for me, the consumer is still in pretty good hands. Everywhere I go, people are spending money, restaurants, vacation, travel. I think, you know, in the end, the Fed, you know, was so overly aggressive with their hawk. And they created a lot of this downturn in sense that they really were kind of lean heavy on their hawkishness. So I think another few large rate hikes. And then it depends.

If the S&P is closer to 25 or 30, then I think the Fed probably pauses because I think the damage has already been done. But I don't think that that's more likely. I think what's going to happen is S&P kind of hangs in there. So you don't seem to think that there's going to be an actual recession. I'm trying to get you to commit here. I'm walking a little bit, but that's the key question, right? What else really matters? So I think there's already a recession in these longer duration assets,

so hyper-growth stocks, Kathy Wood, you know, her ETF is down 50%. And I've talked positively about Kathy Wood. I'm not picking on her. I'm just saying her fund is down 50%. That sector of the market has already priced in the recession. Same thing with NASDAQ. NASDAQ's down 25% year-to-date. but I think like the answer is like I don't think it's going to spread across all the other sectors.

By the way, I think bonds are in their recession too. Bonds are having their worst year ever so far in the history of the Ag index, right? So are we going to get like a 50% drawdown in the S&P like it did in 2008 or 2020? And my perspective is no, because I think that the consumer is good, the balance sheets are good, corporates are good. And I think the Fed has done like already a lot of damage. So the Fed would really have to just jack it up. short-term rates without paying attention to the S&P, and that's not realistic, right? I think the S&P does watch S&P.

So I think it's a bifurcation of duration in pockets of the market, but not the entire this economy and certainly not the S&P. One of the things, John, that's remarkable to me this year is the entire decline in the S&P has essentially been a multiple compression. So we were at, it depends on who he has, 21 or 22 times forward earnings in January. We're at roughly 17. now it depends where you start, you know, judging, you know, a year ahead. But we've had a multiple compression on the order of 20% or so.

And the earnings situation, remarkably, is the same. Actually, it's slightly higher earnings expectations, the dollar value, now for the S&P, than it was in January. So the entire decline in the S&P has been a multiple compression. David Koston and Goldman Sachs came out last night and said, he thinks earnings, he is in the bullish camp. He thinks earnings are going to hold up this year. That implies a little bit of upside because he said he thought the multiple would stay flat around 17.

I find this rather remarkable. What side of the earnings debate are you on? Because that seems to be the major issue. If the multiple is going to be flat at 17 or if there's another, if earnings estimates have to come down, there could be another leg down on the market very easily, right? Yeah, that's the, that's what the bears are going to argue. is why we can have like this 25, 30% pullback in the S&P is that, you know, earnings are going kind of collapse.

So I'm more in the camp of like I think earnings will be okay and the SOP will be salvaged for the year. Am I expecting that to be close flat in the year? I doubt it. But, you know, I think like the, you've got more upside risk and less downside risk. So I like that kind of skew. And I would start to kind of nibble here and buy the, you know, the stocks you like, you know, like the Q-E-O-A-L, you know, SPY, S-D-Y, S-P-Y-D-Y, S-Y-D-Y, S-Y-Y-S-Y, so I would kind of like start hedging

your wrist by nibbling a little bit. But I am in the camp that earnings will be okay, and that's the bull case who I think is more upside or less downside than S-O-B. Yeah, very tough call here. Again, it depends entirely on whether you think a recession is there or not in 2023. And the only problem I have, and John, you and I have lived a long time, I've been 32 years at CNBC. I've seen a lot of crazy markets, too. It's very tough for the Fed to time us off landing. Historically, more times than not, they don't accomplish that. That's why I'm very cautious,

and I tell everybody else to be very cautious about that. Just look at the history, not my personal opinion. I just cite market history. So tough call here, but it's always great to get your perspective. John Dovey is the chief investment officer for Astoria, an old friend of ours, an old friend of ETF Edge. John, thank you for joining us. And everybody, thank you for joining us on the ETF Edge podcast. InvescoQQQ believes new innovations create new opportunities. Become an agent of innovation. InvescoQQQQ, Invesco Distributors, Inc.