ETF Edge - Yearning for Yield & Bitcoin ETF's

Episode Date: March 22, 2021

CNBC's Bob Pisani spoke with Stephen Laipply of BlackRock iShares, Isaac Braley of BTS Asset Management and John Davi of Astoria Portfolio Advisors. They discussed strategies for high-yield investment...s as interest rates rise and the latest bitcoin ETF filing. In the 'markets 102' portion of the podcast, Bob continues the conversation about high yields with Stephen Laipply of BlackRock iShares. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 The ETF Edge podcast is sponsored by InvescoQQQ, supporting the innovators changing the world. Investco Distributors, Inc. Welcome to ETF Edge, the podcast. If you're looking to learn the latest insights on all things, exchange traded funds, you're in the right place, my friends. Every week we're bringing you interviews and market analysis and breaking down what it all means for investors. I'm your host, Bafasani. As markets write out the wave of worries over higher interest rates, we're tracking the action today and discussing what it all means for high investors.
Starting point is 00:00:32 high-yield bond fund flows. Here's my conversation with John Dobby, CIO of Historia Portfolio of Portfolio Advisors, Isaac Braley, the president of BTS asset management, and Steve Laplie, head of U.S. I-Share's
Starting point is 00:00:46 fixed-income strategy at BlackRock. Steve, let me start with you. You oversee the I-Shares high-yield E-T-F, that's the symbol of J&K, excuse me. And the important thing here, I think, is what is going on with the fund flows for this? Are you seeing significant outflows?
Starting point is 00:01:02 inflows, how are investors reacting to this higher yield environment? Yeah, so HYG is a bit of a specific case within our suite. It tends to be a product that's used by institutional investors to make rapid adjustments in their portfolios. So last year we saw a very significant inflows as Risk On set in, going towards the end of the year. We've seen some outflows this year as some investors have taken money off the table. If you look at CrossSAR Suite at some of our broader products, we've had inflows into, for example, our factor fund, USHDB.
Starting point is 00:01:43 We've had flows into our broader high-yield fund, USHY. So I think there's some segmentation and investor behavior. And you're starting to see people bifurcate in terms of holding period as well. Yeah, you know, most high-yield funds like yours, like HyG, are throwing off. yield in four and a half percent range, I guess, right now. It's still fairly low for the risks that are involved here. What's your big picture view of high yield investing right now? Are you giving any broad advice to investors? Because this is one of the most popular asset classes. It's one of the questions I get asked all the time. What should I do with my high
Starting point is 00:02:23 yield fund? So, yeah, if you look at where spreads are right now, we certainly have come a long way since last spring. So we topped out last spring at around 1,100 basis points over treasuries, and now we're back down to the, you know, sort of low to mid-threth 300 range. So spread have come in quite a bit. I think, you know, the way you have to sort of look at this going forward is there's probably not going to be very much price return from further spread tightening. You're thinking more about income and carry off of that. And then you need to focus on what's happening with fundamentals. And so what we see right now, we see default rates starting to fall. They were in sort of the mid-six range. Most of the street estimates have high-eield default rates falling to, you know,
Starting point is 00:03:17 anywhere from sort of the low twos to the mid-3 to 4 percent range. HYG's spread right now is implying a default rate of around that 4 percent range. Upgrades, are outpacing downgrades right now in high yield. You're seeing improvements in fundamentals in terms of interest coverage and even recoveries are starting to edge up. So if you're thinking about that long-term income carry trade, you know, you have to believe that there's going to be a handoff from the current stimulus measures into longer-term growth in the economy and that those fundamentals will persist and allow you to continue to earn that income. All right, Isaac, you don't run a fund, but you do trade these high-yield ETFs.
Starting point is 00:04:06 What's your view of the impact of higher rates on high-yield? What are you telling your investors, now, your clients now, and how are you trading these? Yeah, I mean, we run funds and SMAs, and I think for us, high-yield is our primary trading tool, and we're defensive right now. I think that it was brought before about default rates is true. We do see a collapse in default rates this year. but it's been pretty frustrating as defaults have stayed around that 6.15 level, and normally they fall off a cliff as soon as the recovery starts to happen. So that's been tough because it's a 77% increase in defaults over the past 30 years or so.
Starting point is 00:04:43 And then when we look at spreads that were just brought up those mid-3s, you know, that's a nearly 30% reduction over what we're historically seeing. And then the bad part, you know, the part that we need to watch very carefully is really the recovery rates because it makes defaults look even worse than reality. If we look at our recovery rates right now, we've improved significantly, but we're around 21 to 22 cents on the dollar. And if we go back to even the great recession, that was 27 cents in the dollar. The only times we see numbers like this are more in the 90s correction in the dot-com. So there is risk right now.
Starting point is 00:05:19 We do believe the fundamentals are improving, but one thing about high yields is really this rising star elements, you know, the craft hinds of the world's now performing significantly better, acting very much like investment-grade bonds, you have to go all the way down to triple Cs to find the return you want. So, Isaac, why are the recovery rates so crummy, 20%, why are they so low? Yeah, in some of these areas, although, you know, people are perceiving this fundamental change, it certainly hasn't happened yet. And so even though people want to price these securities down and the spread so tight right now, the reality is many of these companies are still suffering.
Starting point is 00:06:00 They're waiting for consumption to come back. They need that. And so the Federal Reserve will have to look at how they play that game, but also in the end, consumption, to generate cash flow for these companies. Yeah, that's not a good sign. You know, John, you have not been shy about telling clients what you think about this.
Starting point is 00:06:19 Avoid bonds like the plague due to inflation. You wrote that to me this morning, but I've known you follow that way. We feel that way for a while. Does that also go for high yield? Right now, what are you telling your clients about high yield? You know, I think high yield credit is one of these things. Like you go to a restaurant and you look at a menu and something looks good.
Starting point is 00:06:39 You order it and then you get the food and you're like, you know, why do I buy it? You know, there's like a lot of risk and I don't think you're being compensated for that risk for high yield credit. Like we're not an insurance company. We don't have like liabilities that we're trying to, you know, match with, you know, type of yield. We're looking for the best return for UNRWIF. And at the end of the day, interest rates are the ultimate equalizer because all asset classes compete with one another. So, you know, are you going to put your $100 and buy high dividend yield in stock? Are you going to buy high yield credit? Are you going to buy, you know, some physical real estate? You know,
Starting point is 00:07:15 you want to search for the best return for unit risk. And when I look at high yield credit, okay, fine, you're going to get, you know, 5% yield, but your total return is not that attractive. And then any time you get a recession, you know, you can lose 30% on HYG or, you know, any type of high-yield credit fund. So, you know, you get all the downside, but not a lot of the upside. So you'll just never convince me that you're better off owning high-yield credit compared to, like, a high-d dividend-paying stock or an E-TF. So if you look at the S-Y-D, the Spiders dividend ETF versus H-YG, you know, over the last 10 years, you basically get double the compound annual growth for SDIG compared to H-YG. yes, it is a higher risk levels, but, you know, it more than compensated. So the risk adjust the return or the sharp ratio is higher.
Starting point is 00:08:03 So I just think there's a better place to put your money. Our big view, Bob, is that, you know, 10 years is going much higher. I think it's going to be closer to 3% where this thing goes. You know, we're just printing money, and, you know, there's just a ton of supply out there, and I don't see anyone looking to step in and buy these bonds. So, John, if it goes, if the 10-year goes to 3%, is it high yield? High yield isn't going to sit at four and a half percent, is it? I mean, high yield is going to go to six or seven, isn't it? Do you think the spread is going to change if the
Starting point is 00:08:35 10 year goes to 3 percent? Well, I mean, I'll let Steve chime in on that. He's the expert, and I've known Steve for a while, and Steve's very, very smart. But, you know, for me, it's like, okay, if you can get 3 percent risk-free rate, and even, you know, if the high-eil credit is, you know, five, six percent? Like, is it worth taking all that risk when you can get, you know, three percent under 10 year? And still at the end of that I'd much rather on, you know, some high dividend paying stock that over time can increase their dividend to keep, to catch up with the inflation, right? And, you know, last time I check bonds don't increase their, their coupons.
Starting point is 00:09:11 Yeah. Steve, what about that? I'm, look, I know you're, you're not a portfolio manager, obviously. So you don't have to, uh, I'm not asking you to defend anybody's position. on that, but it is a point. If yields go to 3%, if the 10 year goes to 3%, excuse me, what does that mean for high yield, and does that make other assets, you know, a lot
Starting point is 00:09:33 more attractive on a risk-adjusted basis? He was suggesting, you know, high-dividend stocks. I don't know. First of it, is it your base case, or is it BlackRock's base case that the 10-year could go to 3%? And again, I'm not trying to ask you to act like a portfolio manager. I know you're not. You manage the funds, but
Starting point is 00:09:51 What's the base case here? I think by and large, we think rates will be reasonably contained. You know, they've come a fair amount since the lows of last August. We'll see, right? There's some uncertainty out there about, you know, just how rapid the recovery is going to be, what the policy responses will be down the road. I think by and large we still think that, you know, rates can move higher, but we don't believe it will be, you know,
Starting point is 00:10:21 violent going forward. I think, you know, to the question about how do you size up high yield relative to, say, treasuries, it really does depend on what your portfolio income targets are, right? So, you know, if you do have, you know, a lower yield target in your portfolio, you can get comfortable with owning, you know, treasuries or, you know, if you're worried about inflation, you know, tips, et cetera. In high yield, I would also point out that I think if you do want that higher income target in your portfolio, you know, it's not a one-size-fits-all thing. You can pick your spots in high yield. So as an example, I mentioned, you know, we have a, you know, a factor fund or what some
Starting point is 00:11:05 people call smart beta, which this has been going on in equities for a while, but it's this idea that you, you know, you screen on quality and tilt towards value. You know, as it turns out that that's working pretty well. And the idea is that, you know, you try to screen out names that are more like that. likely to suffer default. That fund, I think, over the last three years, has been a top decile performing fund by Morningstar. So there are ways to play this without just necessarily taking high yield as one-size-fits-all. Yeah. And what about that spread that John was talking about? Let's assume we go to 3% on the 10-year in the next year or something like that. I mean,
Starting point is 00:11:49 high yield isn't going to be 4.5% if the 10 year goes to 3%, right? I mean, there's going to be, do you anticipate the spread widening or closing if we do see continuing creep up in yields, in treasury yields? I think it depends exactly what you just said, whether it's a gradual increase in rates, if it's a violent increase in rates. I think risk assets across the board may not react that well, at least initially to that, if it's a more gradual increase in rates. You know, can you see significant spread tightening in high yields from here? I mean, if you look at the historical averages, you know, we're not we're not that far off of, you know, tights. As I said before, I think this is more about the market started pricing and reopening.
Starting point is 00:12:33 You know, fundamentals are kind of catching up to that. So, you know, all things equal, if you would assume that if treasuries rise and they do so, you know, in a gradual way, that spreads will sort of keep pace with that. and then, you know, yields in high yield, of course, will go up, you know, commensarily. So, yeah, yeah, Isaac, I guess let me lay out the problem for, the average CNBC investor that contacts me, they'll typically, they've been forced much more into high yield in the last four or five years, of course. So it wouldn't be unusual for somebody to say, I have 5% of my, of my portfolio in high yield, 10% even I see. I see even more in some circumstances. And now they're messaging saying, okay, what does everybody think should I do with it now?
Starting point is 00:13:19 Now, John's position is on a risk-adjusted basis, it's probably not worth it to hold so much high yield, say 10%, pick a number, and maybe you should transfer into, he suggests high dividend-paying stocks. Does that make any sense to you, Isaac, or what are you recommending here instead? Yeah, I think when we look at those equity markets, and obviously there is outperformance period, especially if you compare, as John did the past decade, where it was an absolutely roaring bull market for equities. But at this point in time, when you look at high yields, it isn't about decade-long periods.
Starting point is 00:13:57 It's about multi-year periods for most investors. And high yields, surprisingly, usually outperform the S&P the first three years coming out of a recession. And you can go all the way back to the 1970s to see that average. So there is a definite exposure to high yields as these investors look for bonds as a portion of their portfolio. The problem is, like you just said, the last few years, investors have continued to flock to these assets. Desperate for yields with the 10-year, not from a real yield standpoint, not covering the delta that needed to get past inflation.
Starting point is 00:14:30 And high yields did. And there's certain spots within the high-yield markets where you still have relatively widespread. If you're in energy transportation industrials, you have a spread range between about 570 and 628 points. If you're in communications or finance utilities, you have that 323 to 360 or so, and that's compared to the 340, but the whole high yield market has. So I think being very specific in the areas is important, but investors are still looking for a yield. I would agree with John that investors have driven this price really far down, and it's showing significant risk right now, how much reward can you get for this yield. If rates were to rise historically, if you saw a 1% increase in rates from here, high yields, convertibles, floating rates, those are really the only three places you can normally hide in the bond markets. But at the same time, we're dealing with a huge yield compression.
Starting point is 00:15:23 And so with default starting to decrease, you're going to have interest rate sensitivity be a major struggle. And that default is important. I mean, if you're looking at defaults at 6.17, I would agree they would go down substantially from here over the year as long as we get expansion. but you still have very unattractive underlines for the yields that are being paid. And look at the Tesla runs as an example. To go from a nine and a half yield to now paying out 2.3, you're talking about high, high-end investment-grade bond levels there. The same thing happened with Carnival. They went from a 12% yield to a 3.26, and that's with a negative 5.5 on their earnings per share.
Starting point is 00:16:03 So people are giving money to this asset class really hoping it will do something. last year it didn't even cover its yield. So there is pent-up opportunity in many of these different areas. What about that? And let me just throw out to anybody wants to. I mean, in one area I do see that's kind of risky for people is the sheer supply of debt out there. We keep reporting on secondary debt offerings in not only investment grade, but high yield here. And thanks to Steve at I shares for supplying this, total high-yield debt.
Starting point is 00:16:38 Debt, nuisance, $200 billion, year-to-date, over $100 billion. Can companies cover all this debt from their cash flow guys? Anybody want to take a crack at this? This is a concern that investors have. Yeah, I think that's the big challenge. It's being met easily with the bidder from the investor wanting to take exposure to this. But we've talked about for a while the zombie company mentality, and this can definitely show up in the high yields. They're getting free access to debt.
Starting point is 00:17:07 They're able to roll over debt with these very, very low rates, but will they be able to generate profits that can cover this? And we think that's the challenge over the short term. And that's why high yields have really kind of gone flatlined here for a little while as they're trying to see what's real about the economy. Stocks can jump off into the future very easily. But high yields have a maturity date attached to them. They can't do that. Yeah. Isaac or anybody, has the underlying fundamentals of these companies issuing high-yield debt,
Starting point is 00:17:37 improved at all? I mean, do they have more cash flow? Or are we just essentially having these zombie companies created or keep going because the Fed is essentially ring-fenced the inevitable default ratio for these? Yeah, I mean, I'll say one thing before I pass it to the other guys. I think certain areas like energy, now having oil where it is, and we know the average price for oil producers to be in the mid-50s to be profitable. So now you're in the 60s. I think that's helps recovery rates instantly because with defaults last year so many companies or other energy companies weren't going to be buying the lease or the equipment of a failing company today they're able to so there's still
Starting point is 00:18:18 companies not able to meet costs they're going to go under but others can jump in there that will push recovery rates up that will help out the markets but also when you're talking about this amount of issuance of debt you're seeing consolidation with the high yields as these rising stars start to move out the ones that were fallen angels before start to move out of the junk bond space, you're getting a consolidation of what's available to you in inventory. Now, there's a lot of issuances, but you're getting a smaller group of securities to work from, and a lot of them are showing up in the triple C space that you still have to be nervous
Starting point is 00:18:51 about. Right. So, Steve, what about any other particular sectors of high yield that are vulnerable? I mean, he mentioned energy. I don't know if you want to comment on energy, but what about, I don't know, malls or something like that, real estate? Yeah, I mean, I think the one interesting thing to point out about high yield over time, and this is actually pretty interesting, is that the overall quality of the universe, notwithstanding what's happened during the pandemic, but if you look over the past, you know, 10 odd years post-financial crisis, the amount of double Bs has increased from, you know, a little over a third in, I believe it was around 2007, to over, 50% now, same time triple Cs have decreased their portion to, I think, the low teens from around 20% pre-crisis. So the overall health of the universe has been improving over time. I think in terms of interest coverage, you know, that's starting to show improvement. If you look at, you know,
Starting point is 00:19:58 where we sort of troughed, it wasn't that far off of previous, you know, compression. and interest coverage, and it seems like it's starting to improve. So, you know, again, fundamentals, you are going to need a solid handoff between the stimulus measures now and real growth. You know, the energy sector, as was pointed out, is improving. You know, in terms of what sectors are of, you know, concern, I mean, I think, you know, from a fundamental standpoint, you wonder about, you know, retailers long-term, how they're kind of coping through this and then, you know, what their cash flow profiles will look like going forward as an example. I do think it's good news that oil is above 60.
Starting point is 00:20:44 It's helping those energy companies. And by the way, Bob, I think you may have pointed this out before. The energy company default rate was approaching 20%. So they were really driving a lot of the overall default rate for high yield. Same thing with recovery. Energy recoveries were quite low. is dragging down that recovery rate to the low 20s. So it is good news that that profile is improving.
Starting point is 00:21:07 Go ahead. I was going to say on that real estate side, it's a mix too, right? When you look at what's going on with office space, that's going to be a problem for a while. Retail is trying some new, with low rents, they're trying some new store methods and structures. Then you have residential real estate who's doing extremely well. But with the energy prices moving up,
Starting point is 00:21:26 you're now seeing lumber move towards double the price over just the last few months, and that's going to squeeze those home builders. It will help existing home sales, but it'll be challenging in other spots. So these companies that are in the junk space, really, you know, one piece moving affects a whole bunch of different areas for them to continue to make profitability and cash flow. Yeah, good point. John, while I've got here, a slightly different subject here, the Bitcoin ETF, VanEx. Bitcoin ETF was acknowledged by the SEC last week.
Starting point is 00:21:57 That's important because it sets in. motion of 45-day period whereby at the end of the 45 days, they either have to accept the application, reject the application, or essentially delay it for further review. Do you have any thoughts on what's going to happen? There are some people actually are very optimistic that this may be finally the year for a Bitcoin ETF. Any thoughts on this? Yeah, I think there's a place for Bitcoin in someone's portfolio. You know, as long as it's sized appropriately, you know, less than 5% or so. I think there's plenty of other ETS in the ecosystem,
Starting point is 00:22:34 which are much more kind of obscure, you know, triple levered, you know, natural gas and whatnot and VIX future triple levered. So I just think it's the time for it. I think we've got the administration. And I think if you look at, you know, who's in charge and things at SEC, you know, I think that all bodes well. So it's just a matter of time. And, you know, I do think that it's better to have a listed
Starting point is 00:22:58 pool vehicle as opposed to going on in exchange and paying tons of bid offer. So I think the time has come and there is a place in people's portfolio for digital assets. Yeah, I think the ecosystem is certainly more stable than it was three years ago. Whether it's still acceptable as some kind of medium of exchange or whether the SEC still wants to get into the business of regulating that, I'm not clear. It's certainly a more improved environment, though. I'd say this is the best chances it's ever had this year for getting through. Now it's time to round out the conversation with some analysis and perspective to help you better understand ETFs.
Starting point is 00:23:42 This is our market's 102 portion of the podcast. Today we'll be continuing our conversation about high yields with Steve Laipley from iShare's. Steve, I know you run YG, which is the biggest high-yield fund in the world. You oversee it. But I'm wondering about the broader flows into bond funds this year. There's been a lot of concerns about lower prices and higher yields. What kind of flows are we seeing into bonds? Are the flows into and out of particular bond sectors at all?
Starting point is 00:24:12 Just update us. Yeah, it's actually interesting. And, you know, it depends on the sector. So as you might imagine, you're seeing outflows in Treasury. You're seeing outflows in rate-sensitive sectors, such as investment great corporates. Interestingly, you're seeing inflows into broader high yield, and I think that's part of portfolio completion, you know, just this idea of having ballast in a multi-asset portfolio.
Starting point is 00:24:40 So those flows have actually been fairly robust. Not surprisingly, you are seeing flows into inflation-protected funds, tips, and you're also seeing flows into municipalities as well. And as we talked about, high-yield flows are a little bit mixed, I think, overall. in the U.S. flows in high yield are more or less flat. You have some funds that are seeing inflows, other funds that are seeing outflows. So, you know, in the context of rising rates, you know, the flows we're seeing tend to make sense. Yeah, the mixed inflows, outflows into high yield makes a lot of sense. Other than broad stock investment, high yield funds is the sector I get the most
Starting point is 00:25:26 inquiries from the viewers. It's the second biggest one. Like what, very typically, I have 5 to 10 percent of my portfolio in high yield. What should I do with it now? Now, I mean, a lot of people, reaction is, you know, with rates going up, it's not going to be a good idea. And yet, you know, logically, we're going into an economic expansion. It doesn't seem like the companies here are at extremely high risk of suddenly having a massive increase in their default rates. Is there? I mean, what is the risk of owning high yield right now? I think the concerns that are typically raised, you know, just the fact that spreads have tightened a fair amount. Concerns about, you know, if you did have a more rapid than expected increase in interest rates,
Starting point is 00:26:12 how the asset class might react to that, and would that ultimately translate into pressure on companies in terms of their funding and interest coverage, etc. I mean, one interesting thing to note, our shorter duration version of HYG is actually generated a positive return this year, despite those rising interest rates. So, you know, I mentioned this in the, you know, the show, you know, high yield is not necessarily a one-size-fits-all. Fitzsall, you can pick your spot. So, you know, as an example, we've had investors allocate to SHYG, our shorter YG fund. We've had investors, obviously last year, allocate to Fallen Angels, which returned close to 15%.
Starting point is 00:26:59 This year, we're seeing folks allocate to double Bs as an example. So there's a lot of granularity within high yield that exists now in ETS that did not exist in years past. So, you know, I think investors can be a lot more precise with how they actually allocate to the asset class. Now, explain how fallen yields work, I'm sorry, fallen angels work in this environment. Obviously, in a fallen angels, you have people who were in investment grade who slipped down into the high yield level. What does that mean for investors in that particular asset group when yields are rising? Well, the fallen angel phenomenon has been, you know, something that's been known and talked about for a long period of time. And, you know, in a nutshell,
Starting point is 00:27:53 it works like this. We know when companies are downgraded from investment grade to high yield, the view is that, you know, a number of mandates can no longer hold them, have to sell them, and that the sell-off, the downward pressure on those names tends to be, you know, overdone, and therefore there's a premium that can be captured by investing in them after they've been downgraded. And so that's the Fallen Angel phenomenon. And so we obviously saw a couple hundred billion fallen angels happen last year, and we saw investors react accordingly to that and invest in the asset class. The interesting thing happening this year is that you're starting to see right,
Starting point is 00:28:35 stars, and that's the opposite, Bob, where you have upgrades from high yield to investment grade, that's actually outpacing Fallen Angels this year. So it's sort of turning around as this reopening trade starts to set in. Well, along those lines, I've been rather surprised that the recovery rates here are still pretty low, around 20%. Are the fundamental of the, I would think that the fundamentals of these companies would be improving somewhat as the economic recovery gains some steam overall. And a lot of these companies seem to be waiting for consumption to come back. Is it too much to ask about, to assume that the fundamentals of these companies ought to be a
Starting point is 00:29:22 little bit better than it was a year ago? Well, I think it's going to take some time. I think you are starting, you know, to see some improvement. you know, don't forget as well, the recovery rate is also being skewed a bit by certain sectors. So energy recovery rates were quite low. And I think if you strip out energy and some other related sectors that the actual recovery rate is closer to 30 as opposed to the low 20s. And, you know, traditionally that number has been 40. So for sure, it's a bit below.
Starting point is 00:29:56 But, you know, again, I think what has to happen here is that you do have to have a, handoff between, you know, the stimulus measures and, you know, real underlying growth, you know, longer-term growth, which will allow, you know, the fundamentals and the profiles of these companies to improve. Well, but with oil at $60, the recovery rate's going to improve on energy stocks, isn't it? I mean, it's got to be better than it. It should. But 40, right?
Starting point is 00:30:24 Certainly the fundamentals should start improving. I mean, that is a helpful, helpful fact for that sector. Yeah. And you mentioned just going back to what you were talking about, flows earlier, big inflows into tips. I find tips a remarkable investment. I mean, what is it now minus 0.6 percent, something like that the yield on tips. I mean, it's remarkable that anyone would invest in it. And yet you're seeing inflows in anticipation that that will change, right? Yeah, I think. So tips, you know, obviously are also a treasury security, but they do have this inflation protection feature. So, So investors who are buying tips have a view that, you know, realize inflation is going to exceed what's currently being priced by the market. Right now, if you look at 10 years, that's around, I believe it's around the 2.3% level. So folks who are investing in tips have a view that that is going to be greater than that level, and they'll be able to be compensated for that if they're correct.
Starting point is 00:31:26 But that is the view if you're investing in tips. You have to believe that what the market's priced in is actually going to underclub what ultimate inflation is, you know, how inflation is ultimately realized. So, you know, one interesting part of that. Yeah, go ahead. The component of that is that the 2.3% is the current inflation level. And you're saying that investors are betting that number is going to be wrong, essentially. Yeah, the market's pricing in around 2.3% of the, is the current inflation level. point three percent, I believe, give or take. And so investors who who are investing in tips believe
Starting point is 00:32:02 that number is ultimately going to be higher. Yeah. So what are we at 1.6 percent on the 10 year? And if we got 2 percent inflation, it's minus, the real rate is minus 0.4 percent. And obviously people aren't betting that the number is going to be higher, that the actual inflation rate is going to be higher. Yeah. And to your point, real rates are negative. So it really at this point is about, you know, your view on where inflation ultimately comes in. Some people have very strong views that it is going to come in higher than what the market expects just because of the sheer magnitude of stimulus. I'm going to leave it there, Steve. I really appreciate to taking the time out. Steve Laplie, folks, overseas HYG, which is the biggest high-yield ETF in the world,
Starting point is 00:32:48 and oversees the entire I-share's fixed-income portfolio there. Steve, thanks very much for joining us. Really appreciate your help. Thanks for having me, Bob. Everybody, have a healthy, happy, and safe trading week. InvestcoQQQ believes new innovations create new opportunities. Here's the greater possibilities together. Learn more at investco.com slash QQ, Invesco, Investco Distributors, Inc.

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