Fairway Rollin' - Bingo Bango Bongo of Masters Story Lines With Jason Sobel

Episode Date: November 9, 2020

It’s time to get your jackets and hats on! It’s time for the Masters! House and Hubbard are joined by Jason Sobel of the Action Network to play a game of Bingo Bango Bongo and talk about their favorite story lines going into the major event in Augusta, Georgia. They also include some of the best sleepers and favorites, and which golfers have the best and most surprising odds. Hosts: Joe House and Nathan Hubbard Guest: Jason Sobel Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hello, friends, and welcome to this golf podcast. Unlike any other, it is Masters Week officially here on Farroway Road. The Golf Podcast on the ringer podcast network. I am your starter, Joe House. It is the beginning of Masters Week in November, literally a championship unlike any other in the history of this event. We are going to do some storylines. Of course, our PGA tour correspondent on the ground,

Nathan Hubbard is here. Also joining us since we're doing beginning of the week's storylines, this gentleman joined us since the restart on the storylines of the tour since June. We had to invite him for this week. Jason Sobel from the Action Network, golf bet and serious XM radio. The first T is open.

We're going off as a three ball because that's how they do it down in Augusta on Thursday and Friday. Let's throw a peg in the ground and stretch one out. All right, boys, Jason Sable, what's happening? Nathan Hubbard, what's happening? It's mass this weekend. I got a green jacket on right now. It's green. It's green.

It's literally green. Do you see my hat? I've got my hat, I got my jacket, and look who's here. I don't go far this week without this guy. Look at this guy. It's the gnome. It is. It's the yard gnome master's guy.

It's a big week house. I'm excited. Can you tell? I have not dug into the patron shop yet. So I was because I was credentialed in April and I'm not going this week, but because I had a credential and I was with the press that I am now able to shop in the online patron shop. So anyone out there listening who wants to throw some money my way and I'll buy him some stuff. I guess we could do that. Well, that's a good way to get that press thing revoked. What is the max? Do they have a max on it?

No. Have you seen people coming out of that gift shop before? Like there's people for this year, they're not limiting it online because we should open like a little Shopify store and just- You are limited to two orders, but I don't think there's a limit within those orders of how much it can be. Does that include the food? I was once in T-Bones. It was about two. two or three years ago. And it was like a friend of a friend. And this guy was apparently buying stuff like buying stuff for clients and customers and people that worked for them. And, you know, so this guy, they go, you got to see this guy's receipt. You got to get a picture and put it on Twitter. And so the guy stood up on the bench, you know, like one of those like sort of, I guess not a high top, but like just like a booth that he was said at T-Bones on Washington Road and stood on

top of the booth and put his arm as high as he could in the air and the receipt hit the floor. Oh, that's like when you go buy toothpaste at CVS. Yeah, exactly. Nathan, you asked about food. You already know the answer to this because we were on last week with Joel Beale, who I think is on the hollowed grounds right this second. They're doing this package, this $150 full, sweet, full complement of sandwiches and cookies and other assorted goodies.

You're only allowed two of those, but if you want pimento cheese and barbecue, you can have it. Well, the worst kept secret at the Masters is there's the fancy spot called Birkman's Place, which is where all the high VIP people get to go, and it's sort of hidden behind the hedges.

And they have their own special little merch shop. So is that, do people have access to that online this year, Sobel, do we know? or is it just the traditional set of merch? I don't believe so. Now, if you're a high roller, you're a VIP with connections to Augusta, I'm guessing that you could get whatever you want,

and you're going off, you're going to the dark web of Augusta National, and you can go purchase whatever you want to purchase. All right. Well, the house, I think what we have to commit to tonight, actually, is getting some of the pulled pork or egg salad or pimento cheese sent to,

each of us so that we can eat real-time sandwiches on pod like Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Well, I mean, obviously I'm into that. We have to get somebody who has credentials or has a ticket that order it for us. Well, if only we knew you're putting it out there. I mean, Sobel's

right here. I know. I know. I'm not sure I were to split up this egg salad, but we can figure something out. That's a logistical problem. Speaking of which, you want to hear my life hack at Augustin National? My usual life hack, this is my breakfast sandwich. You take the egg salad. You open it up. You put about four slices

of crispy bacon in there. And then you put like another egg sandwich like on top of it. So you basically have a double decker egg sandwich with bacon in the middle. That's marvelous. Where do you get the bacon from? Still in the media dining. Oh yeah, right. You're a media guy. That's a good move.

My sandwich hack and I talked about it, you know, a couple years ago on the pod and with Bill Simmons when he was down and we enjoyed it together is the chicken sandwich. You are the chicken sandwich and the pimento cheese. And then you have a chicken cheese sandwich because the chicken comes out a little dry. They anticipate that you're going to do some Texas peat sauce or something else like

with it. But the richness of the pimento cheese with the you only need like half the pimento cheese sandwich, the other half you just eat. But added that in with the chicken, then you have a delicious chicken cheese sandwich. That's marvelous. I recommend it to everybody. When you're allowed to go to the Masters, which should be April of 2021, fingers cross, knock on wood.

Anyway, we've sorted out merch and some. hacks, some food hacks. Let's sort out some storylines. The way we thought we were going to do this, there's three of us. We're going to play a little three ball here. We have a bingo, bango, bongo match. Each of us is going to nominate a topic. We'll run that topic to ground. There aren't going to be any winners or losers because we're gentlemen and it's the Monday of the Masters. But I thought we'd get a lot of angles covered that way. Jason Sobel is the guest. You have the team, my friend. Okay. I don't know how much I can encompass with this one storyline, but it's a November friggin master's. I mean,

this is something that we've never seen before and probably never will see again. So we can encompass different course conditions. We can encompass the fall foliage around the golf course. We can talk about not having spectators on the golf course, which is going to be very strange for this particular event. So we can take that in a lot of different directions if you let me take just November Masters as a storyline and stretching it out to a lot of different things. Go, go, go. It goes all over those places, right? Yeah, it does.

I mean, let's start with course conditions and weather, because it sounds like there's more Bermuda grass than normal, which is going to have some interesting impacts, maybe not so much on the Fairway Lies, but around the greens. But this weather, I mean, I hope. they got really good drone shots of the course last week because the weather's not looking very good. We got wet. Yeah, we got a lot of rain Wednesday, Thursday, 80%, 90% chance. And then it looks like we're going to have least 40% chance of showers through the entire weekend.

I don't know that we're going to see the sunshine. Well, and the other part of that is it's warm. It's going to be, it's in the low 80s, Wednesday and Thursday. And then it drops down into the 70s on into the weekend. And the forecast that I saw didn't have a ton of wind in it. That was one thing I was looking for. But if it's soft, I mean, they have the subair system for the greens. So the greens are not going to be, you know, they can always accelerate.

Yeah, exactly. But for the purposes of, you know, the impact of the extra Bermuda plus whatever, what do they overseed with? Did they oversee with Bermuda or did they use like Rye or something to get it green? They usually use rye. I don't know 100% what they did at this time. Do you Sobel? I believe it's wry. Yeah.

That's how you get it nice and green right now. And the evenings are in the 50s, it might dip down into the high 40s. So that is good grass growing weather. But I think that kind of composition weather-wise might favor long hitters. Do you agree with that? Sure. Look, longer hitters are always going into. have an advantage over shorter hitters, no matter what the golf course is. If you make it a

long and soft golf course, then yes, the longer hitters are going to have an advantage. That said, for everyone who watch Bryson at Wingfoot and is all just saying, look, hits it further than anybody else. And, you know, this is the new way of the world in golf. And he is just going to break Augusta National by hitting it 400 yards off every tee. I would like to remind all of those people that Augusta National is the world's foremost second shot golf course. And if you are not hitting your irons and wedges really well, and I know we're going to get into some picks and plays here at some point a little bit, but I will tip my hand a little bit and just say that Bryson is not the best wedge player.

That is the sort of weak spot in his game. And so I might rather a guy like Justin Thomas from 125 out than Bryson from 75 out. And so I think we all have to be very cognizant of, yes, it's a long golf course. Yes, distance is a huge advantage off the T, just like it is. every single week, but iron and wedge play is still going to be the most important aspect of success on this golf course. Yeah, I think in the last five years, the winner has been first in shots game approach three times, second one's third one. So it's going to be an approach. And I mean, I think Thursday, it could be live clean in place. Well, if they get it in,

it says 100% chance of thunderstorms on Thursday. Now, we don't know if it's morning or afternoon because it's still too early in the week to have a real clear idea. But as you would expect, we covered probably four storylines in that very first one. That was cheating. Nate, you go ahead and bongo us off. All right. Well, let's start with a little bit of a transition from this Sunday. And my storyline is, what did we learn this week at the Houston Open, which finished with a winner that I personally was really excited to see, and that's Carlos Ortiz, who is just a great guy and has played his butt off for years. He was leading money winner on the Corn Ferry tour a couple years ago, got a battlefield promotion because he won three times, has pretty much

struggled a bunch since then, and it's too bad that he won't be in this field. The good news is he'll be there in five months. But, you know, we would have said the first Mexican to win on the PGA tour since 1978 was going to be Abe answer for sure. But really happy to see Carlos win. So that's the news coming out of this week. And we should say he's the kind of guy that you usually expect to see win in the fall, but who has faltered in this fall stretch giving way to Stewart Sink and Sergio and Brian Gay. That's what we saw Sam Burns do today. He had the 54-hole lead. He's the kind of guy who you would expect to step up and win it. He fell down. It was good to see Carlos do it. That said, what did we learn this week coming out of Houston? Because we had a course that,

by the way, had shaved down grass around the greens that really challenged these guys more than I thought a lot of people were expecting. And at the end, we had a leaderboard that had all of the best players in the tournament on it. DJ was there, Brooks was there, Terrell Hatton was there, Hediaci was there, Jason Day was flirting. So, and in the top 20 by the way, Molinari was there, Hovlin was there, Shane Lowry. So over to you, House. Would you see? What did we learn from Houston?

Yeah, so that was the point that I wanted to make about Houston is all those prominent names needing a tune-up. They all made the judgment and election to get themselves to Houston to get in around. DJ needed it because he hasn't

played professional golf because he had the COVID for a few weeks. Brooks clearly had this one circled because he helped with the renovation of the golf course and the, uh, redesign and, and had intimate familiarity so much so that he shot 65, I believe on Saturday, then opened up with a hot 30,

uh, on, on, on the first nine Sunday and was, uh, among the, you know, within two or three shots of the lead and, and had the same score as DJ, uh, as, as they made the turn going in. Now, Brooks couldn't hold on. But how about this? Uh, when Brooks, he had a, at one point, uh, nearly seven strokes gained putting. And if these greens, and there was some indication that there was an effort

to have them replicate in at least speed-wise, some of what they anticipate Augusta might be playing at. If Brooks is in that kind of shape, if he's in Sunday, front nine, 30 shape, are we looking at Brooks with, with, you know, delicious eyes? What kind of eyes are we looking at Brooks with? Yeah, I mean, I think you have to look at Brooks.

It's a major championship. All of a sudden, Brooks is, like, healthy and shows up and starts playing decent golf again. It's like, you know, he just kind of decides to turn it on when he needs to turn it on and starts playing better golf. That said, despite his hot putting numbers, I am looking at still ball striking. And I think one of the most predictive stats out there is when guys are playing back-to-back weeks, I like looking at the ball striking numbers for the final round because, quite frankly, if you have it going on a Sunday, you should be able to still have it going on a Thursday and Friday the very next week. And of the top 10 in strokes gain Tita Green in Houston on Sunday,

five of those players are making the trip to Augusta. They are DJ, Hideki, Hatton, Molinari, and Corey Connors. And I think that if you look through that list, I mean, DJ is not sneaking up on anybody. Tyrell Hatton's been one of the best players in the world over the last 12 months. Hideki, we all know what a good ball striker he is. Malinari is a guy we've barely seen it all. He took a lot of time off during the pandemic and hasn't played much golf. But maybe there's a little inkling of form for Malinari going into Masters week.

And then Corey Connors, when we talk about this being a second shot golf course, and we're looking for guys who are good iron and wedge players, Corey Connors is a very above average iron player, are one of the better guys on the PGA tour in that category right now. And so I look at him and say, hey, he's hitting it really well right now. He's going to a place where iron play is going to be very important. And so I think that's a guy that you look at. You don't say, all right, I'm throwing all my money on a Cory Conner's outright.

But for a low-end DFS play, for a top 20 type of prop, I think he's a pretty good play. Molinaris is 125 to 1 right now. I mean, that's worth 20 bucks. I saw that today. I know, but maybe you can throw them in a top 20. Top 20, I like, sure. Yeah, that's 20 bucks. Yeah, it feels like the lesson coming out of Houston

is that Brooks is just about there. And DJ has been at the top of his game for a while. You know, what that leads to is this is the, I mean, this is one of the most stacked and loaded top of the field masters that we've ever had. It's just hard to remember a time in which all of the best guys, are playing so well and you could make a really strong case for any of them. But Brooks is in the mix and he's been telling us that for the last three weeks through his social media account,

not saying I'm back, but his presence seems to suggest he's ready to capture the spotlight again. And that round that he shot today was a man's round. He's ready to play. Yes, we're in agreement. I feel like every time we come to, especially the Masters, but really a lot of the major championships, that, okay, there might be like two or three guys out of the upper tier who aren't quite really in form, not playing their best golf going into it. But for the most part, I feel like every time we get to one of these things. And I know because I do a ranking of the entire field. I'll do a ranking this week of numbers one through 93 and I'll go straight through the field.

And I'm going to have guys who are like 43rd on the list. And I look at them and say, that guy can win because he's pretty good. They're just a lot of really good players. And so I feel like every time we get to one of these, I'm looking at it going, yeah, I mean, the best of the best are going to show up. And I think it's fairly predictive that we can look at a guy like DJ and a guy like Brooks and a guy like Xander who plays well at all these things, the guy like JT and say, those guys all should be at least pretty close on the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon. If not in serious contention, at least not too far back. But I think the key to this one is looking a little bit deeper and trying to figure out who those other names. games are going to be. And I mean, like I said, I'm going very deep with this thing. I'm looking

at everybody. And it's hard to say, you know, okay, I want to put a couple of surprises in the top 10. If you put a few surprises in the top 10, all of a sudden, there are guys like those players that I just mentioned that are not going to be in the top 10. And that just makes it really, really hard to figure this stuff out. Well, it's not going to be Jazz Jane Wantonod. So how's Bongo over to you? It's bad. Yeah, I think I'm Bango. And, And that feels right because this guy is nothing but bingo. And of course, it's Bryson D. Shambo. And what we are anticipating out of him.

Now, I got to give a shout out to my homie, Joe Pita, gambling analytics guy who last year 2019 did a preview, did a very, very deep dive of every single shot from the shot link era yeah so joe as he uh is inclined to do he makes the observation that he doesn't know whether or not there are landing area penalties at augusta for wild drives that are longer than 330 yards because there aren't bunkers out at the 330 to 365 range and that the trees on a lot of holes, start to thin out once you get to that yardage. So if that's the case, and we know we've already heard the tails, it's almost taken on its own legendary status of Bryson's practice round last week where, you know, he had wedge in

on one and wedge in on nine and eight iron on 15 and nine iron on 13 and hit it over the bunkers on 18. What kind of experience are you expecting out of Bryson this week, Jason Sobel? So I want to preface this by saying that I like what Bryson is doing. Bryson is using the analytics of golf to change his body, to change his swing, and to create more speed and power off the tee.

And obviously have more distance off the tee. I like everything about it. We've seen the success of it. saw it at Wingfoot a couple of months ago when he won the U.S. Open and won it pretty handily. Here comes a Sobel ball. We know that it can succeed. That said, there it is. I just don't know that.

I mean, everyone's expecting him to basically break Augusta. And I just don't know that you can do it here. And I get it. We've seen it when, you know, they had to quote unquote tiger proof the course, which never made any sense to me. Hey, the guy's the longest hitter in golf. Let's make the course even longer so that plays more into his hands. I never quite understood what any of that meant.

But we've seen it before with the longest player in the game can obviously dominate on this golf course. I just, I don't think it's going to happen for Bryson. And it comes back to what I was saying earlier. Same thing. It's a second shot golf course. I get the, I get the theory behind it. I get the strategy behind it. Look, for Bryson, I would rather have Bryson at 75 yards to each hole than 125 yards.

So bang away. hit it as far as you can and go hit it again. I get it for his purposes. That said, I still think I would rather have J.T. or John Rom or Hadecki or certainly Brooks or DJ from 125 yards as opposed to having Bryson from 75 yards. Nate, does that make any sense whatsoever?

Here's what it is for me, and this is knowledge from our guy, Justin Ray. Of players with eight or more Masters rounds over the last three years, he ranks dead fucking last in strokes gain putting. So he either has got to put these greens. It doesn't matter if he hits at 4.25 if he has four three puts in the first two days. So that I think is the stat that is going to cut.

Now, what has come with Bryson's distance has been an incredible increase in his putting. And so that that, you know, that's the sort of underlooked part of the game for Bryson that has made him deadly. But he has not proven that he can put at Augusta. I happen to think that a lot of what we're seeing is not performative art on his social media account and is real. And therefore, I think that he's taken it really seriously

and he's put a lot of pressure on himself coming into this week. I think there is a lot that's going to be on his shoulder. So, you know, the greens are going to be exactly the way they normally are. There's not going to be anything different about them. No different grass. You know, it's the same, they'll be the same speed. It'll be just like in April Augusta. He hadn't done it yet.

So is he the guy to pick this week? Well, the odds say he is. But it's not because he's hitting it, you know, way, way right on 13 so that he's only got a, you know, a small club coming in. It's the challenge for him is going to be, can he put the ball in the hole? We are in agreement on this point. That is the, let's just wait and see aspect of this. My sense from all these years of Masters viewing is that, you know, the three footers are as complicated and difficult and challenging as any 12 to 15 to 18 footer that the guys

encounter week to week on tour. And you can end up with a three foot put that then becomes a 12 to 15 foot comebacker because you've missed in a, in a grotesque kind of way, extraordinarily penalizing. And, you know, it's the guys that roll the rock that win the golf tournament. So yeah. And I still go back to the fact that, you know, ball strikers and putters and obviously Bryson's going to just bang it all over the golf course. And we'll see.

I think it's worth talking about guys, the hypothetical aspect of this. let's say that Bryson hits it four bills off the tea the entire week, has wedges into all the par fives, wins by six like you did at the U.S. Open, then what? Does golf just go? I mean, there are people within the golf industry. We see them on Twitter all the time who regularly lose their minds about, the game is not what it's supposed to be,

and it's changed too much and people are hitting it too far. What are we going to do? Those people, their heads are going to explode. No doubt. So, Bryson wins this golf tournament doing what he's doing. No doubt. Look, he's going to, they're going to change the course. I don't think they'll have time over the next five months to do that much to it.

But I bet you we will see a different T on 13. And we're going to see some different layouts from here. If he goes back to back, you're absolutely right, Sobel. I think that is the Bryson storyline. I don't think he's going to win. But I think if he did, he's going to change. the way people approach these courses. People are going to freak out because the next round of guys are going to come up underneath them and people are going to grab 47, 48 inch drivers,

and that's the way it's going to be. It's going to be 12-year-old kids. Instead of, hey, I got to the tour and I'm a good player. Now I'm going to bulk up and get more speed. It's going to be a 12-year-old who's going to go, hey, I'm 6-4-220 when I'm 12, and I've got this ball speed that's just, you know, higher than Bryson's already. And when I get to the tour, I'm going to be hitting it five bills instead of four bills. Do you think we'll see a 400-yard drive this week? No. I think it's going to be too wet.

Too wet. I also, I'd like to know the conditions under which Bryson was posting those social media. That's right. I mean, yeah, there's got to be some other factors at play there. We're in agreement. This episode of Fairway Rowland is brought to you by our good pals at Fandoole. We have made it, my birdie buddies, to the final leg of the Fairway Rolling. Doe leaderboard

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even if you are not positioned to win. The leaderboard series, obviously I am very excited about this covered on the show you have coming up you're going to hear some picks from jason sobel and nathan hubbard and myself to build out your dfs lineup a couple sleepers are out there i like matthew fitzpatrick the jacket is absolutely beautiful go to fanduil dot com slash fairway rollin to enter the master's contest before it locks and the lock is going to be this thursday morning at seven a m it's Fanduil.com slash fairway rolling.

For mandatory disclaimer, age and location restrictions apply. All right, let's get over to a bingo. We've gotten through three storylines that have covered 15 storylines. Sobel, it's your box. Let's see it. My bingo is a guy that somehow we've gotten through all this and haven't even mentioned his name yet, even though he's the defending champion at Augusta National. that is, of course, Tiger Woods going after a record tying sixth green jacket this year,

trying to go after what Jack's got. I don't see it happening. I look at Tiger and I say, you know, I get it. He's the ultimate horse for the ultimate course at this golf tournament. But he is also not finished better than 37th place. And I believe seven starts since January. So he is not going well for him. I just don't think he can show up at Augusta and turn it.

on. He had some form when he got to Augusta last April and was playing better. I just don't see him turning it on this year. What do you guys think? Any shot for Tiger Woods whatsoever this week? No, he led the field and shots can approach last year when he won at Sherwood. He was terrible with his irons. And he was terrible in particular in the drizzle. And we just talked at the outset, on my bingo or whatever it was, about the weather. And so there's going to be a lot of water. I just don't see it. So Sobel and maybe House, you too, just we're now talking about two guys who probably we think their odds are higher than they really ought to be. How do you find value in that as a better? How would you, what can you throw down to take advantage of the fact that we think Bryson and Tiger may be two of the most overrated players on the odds board coming into this? Okay. So I will handle it. I'll take it and throw it to House to what you think of this. But one of my least, favorite things about golf betting right now is that if you want to fade a player, you really can't fade them. You basically just don't bet them. That's how you fade a player.

You know, you can take a couple of matchups against that player. Now, this being the Masters, instead of just one or two guys in your particular book that you can take against Bryson, you might have five or six guys. And so if you want to fade Bryson, there are a bunch of names and players that you can take against Bryson. I wish, and someday, hopefully not in the not too distant future, we will have this ability. But I would love to see whether it spreads, whether it's just you know, different lines, but being able to take any player in the field against any other player. And, you know, maybe it's, I'll take, uh, JT plus two and a half strokes over Bryson. Or maybe it's just JT plus 130 over Bryson. Whatever the case might be. And maybe having both

of those options would be, I think, really cool. But that's the only way. If you want to fade players, in golf betting, there's not much other ways of fading them. How else? You got another way to get Tiger off your card? It's a missed the cut bet. And then there will be, you know, right now I haven't seen anybody with the full menu of missed the cut odds. But, you know, the problem with golf odds is the book just sets them according to market

participation, what they anticipate the casual better will want to do at the most sort of glamorous, interesting golf tournament of the calendar year. So they'll get lots and lots of casual betters who don't really pay attention to or care about the risk proposition underlying the odds associated with the player. They just want to bet on a player because it's fun to bet on a player and have a chance to win. I'm going to be playing a bunch of missed the cut bets because the odds are at least, you know, you're still not getting properly compensated for the risk that you're undertaking, with the bet.

You know, when you have somebody like Tiger, for instance, I don't know the last time. Has he ever missed a cut at the Masters? Sobel? I feel like he has. I thought there might have been one.

One? Yeah. Yeah. But they're not going to give you odds to reward you for that, for that fact. But you might get like plus 280 or something for him to miss the cut.

I don't know. Something like that. Maybe less. I haven't seen any of the numbers yet. But that's really the only way to fade a player and matchups. And I have been playing matchups throughout this entire year. In fact, I'm Mickelson hunting.

And the book that I play with each week is only putting up a single Mickelson head to head. But I just plow in with as much money as I can because he can't, to date since the restart in 2020, he can't compete on the PGA tour. And he's getting worse. Like he can't make cuts. And it's not that he's, He's a bad golfer.

He's a bad golfer in relation to the quality of PGA tour players at this second. He shot, he didn't make the cut. He shot a nine out of par three on Friday. And the head to head that I had was Matt Jones. Now, Matt Jones is a perfectly lovely player. But, you know, he would be shocked by how much I invested in him this weekend. If there is a matchup in your book for this coming week that's, let's say it's even money both ways or something.

It's not the, the juice isn't, isn't that big. Tiger versus Phil this week, where you're going? It's Tiger. I mean, I like Tiger's chances of making the cut so much more than I like Phil's odds to make the cut. What do you think, Nate? Yeah, no doubt. I mean, I think Tiger's still only missed 20 cuts in his entire career. So I'm deep on Tiger to make the cut.

And Phil was awful in Houston. really was terrible in Houston. He was not good at Sherwood. We just haven't seen it from him. He's just not... The most fun thing we're going to see this week is him really hitting bombs. He's going to swing the crap out of the driver, and he may go home after Friday night. That is one I'm betting, in fact. Phil in Houston is the least of my worries. I get everything else you guys are saying, and I'm totally on board with it. I have seen Phil in a few situations playing the week before major because he likes to play the week before major championship where on a Friday afternoon he was a little close close to the cut line,

a little too close. And I'm not going to say that Phil intentionally did not make it to the weekend, but somehow his game just went a little south on the back nine on Friday afternoon and he had the weekend off to go prepare for that major championship. And I, and I think that comes to Phil's M.O. and really what should be the M.O. of any top player out there, which is, hey, if I have a chance to go out there and contend and potentially win the week before major, I'll take it. If I'm going to make the cut on the number and finish T56, that's doing nothing for me. There's no point in me being out there and just, you know, do sweep it in the morning and getting up early and just, you know, playing out the string

on the weekend. And so I don't put a whole lot of stuff. stock into how Phil played on Friday in Houston, knowing what we probably know about what was going through Phil's mind at that point. But I'm on board with everything else you're saying, because, yeah, he is just not played the way he needs to play. That said, maybe if you get a prop for top 50 and over player this week, because he seems to be cleaning up on PGA Tour champions this year. So maybe that would work out for you. That would mean he'd have to beat Bernard longer. Nobody beats Bernard longer. I don't like Phil against Bernhardt. No way. So will you, you make a good point. It very well could be the case that Phil, this entire last month,

five weeks, six weeks with Phil has been him grinding and working to find the correct recipe to be successful, to go compete at the Masters. And he's been, I wouldn't call it sandbagging, but he just has a different kind of priority in mind because he is 50 years old. He knew he couldn't really compete at the U.S. Open at Wingfoot. So since then, perhaps, if you're looking for a glass-half-full kind of thesis of what the hell's going on with Phil Mickelson. It is just that he is working super hard to be ready to compete at the Masters. Well, so that means it's, that means the storyline is over to me. And since we're talking about a bunch of guys who are going to suck this week, who's going to be DFL, worst player in

the field this week? I, you know, I've got my list right here in front of you guys. So as I mentioned, I rank the entire 93 man field. So I've got, I put everyone into six tiers. I'm showing you this guy is on my Zoom, on our Zoom call right now. And I've got first tier is, you know, all the names that you would think, all the big names,

second tier, it's like, all right, a couple like little sleepers and guys were sort of, you know, the next guys you would think. And third tier,

okay, these guys make the cut. Fourth tier, probably struggle and they're going to miss the cut a little bit, fifth tier, all right, guys that, you know,

aren't terrible, but aren't going to make the cut. Then that, that sixth tier, those are the guys that are going to be right, near the bottom and look at DFL. So I will give you, how about in a head-to-head matchup, Sandy Lyle or Larry Mize? I will throw Larry Mize at the bottom of that list. Yes, 100%. God is still punishing Larry Mize for the chip in and 87 over Norman. And Larry is thrilled about it.

What does he care? He's got a master's jacket. He gets to come to the dinners. Larry Mize will be DFL. House, is there anybody else even worth talking about who's going to be DFL? No, I mean, it's exactly that competition. It's Sandy Lyle against Larry Mize, isn't it? I could see, yeah, I could see Olothal. Mike Weir, Mike Weir's been playing okay, actually.

Actually, you know who I would say? And I'll go ahead and do it, and I'm sorry if it sounds insulting. Trevor O'Mellman, that's my pick for Deadless. He's not going to play. He's actually taking himself out of the field. Just so you couldn't embarrass him like that. I mean, it's not my fault.

It was the last time he's played any competitive of golf. He's on golf channel all the time. It's generous of him. He is working. Exactly right. He's like the rest of us. He's a working stiff. Exactly. Well, that's good. I'm glad that he's, he's opening up a spot. Does that mean there's a possibility of two invites this week? No, no invites this week. You know what? I really, I mean, people think that the folks that run Augusta National are sort of, you know, hey, they do what they want, whenever they want. They really don't. I mean, there's a process for invitees to this tournament and they invite people who qualify for the golf tournament. If I was Fred Ridley, I would go, you know what? That was cool. Carlos Ortiz,

you're in. Come on. It's Monday. Come on in. You can play. And then, you know what? I got a buddy that I play the member guest with. He's been playing pretty well too. I can invite whoever I want. We're Augusta National. I'm going to ask him to come play. He'd love it. You know, we'll put him in a late tea time and yeah he'd love to come play with Jeff Knox. Yeah. I mean, honestly, like, are you almost surprised it doesn't happen? We're like, these are the movers and shakers of the entire world. These are the guys who run everything. And they can invite literally whoever they want to play in their golf tournament. And they stick to the qualifications. I'm actually impressed by that. Brady's down 31 nothing in the first half right now. Maybe Tom will get an invite this week.

just threw another pick too by the way geez who cares who cares house over to you yeah so uh I'm interested in one particular guy who we just have been waiting for him and he had a great thing happen in his life and what is Rory McElroy

under the radar for this 2020 Masters uh Justin Ray put up a stat today our homie shout out J.R uh the Rory's ranks over the last five years in the Masters. On the front nine, first nine scoring, he's four under in the aggregate, and he's ranked tied for 14th.

In his second nine scoring, the back nine, this is over the last five years, he is 24 under par, and he ranks first. So my question to you guys, what are you anticipating out of Rory? It's been a very quiet performance out of him

since the restart, really. To me, Rory has the highest potential variance of just about anybody out there. I'd probably throw Jordan Spieth at the top of that list because I honestly think Speeth can show up and contend this week. I don't, I wouldn't bet on it. Yes. There's anything that can happen with Jordan. I mean, Jordan can honestly like, he wouldn't surprise me if he shot 12 under.

He wouldn't surprise me if he shot 12 over and missed the cut. He can do anything. And Rory's sort of like next on that list for me. I can see Rory winning this thing by five shots. shots. Can't you see it on like a wet course where, you know, it's just soft and Rory can just hit bombs and it really plays into his hands. And I do think that Rory's going to win multiple master's titles by the time it's all said and done. That said, I can also just see Rory going out and kind of doing what he's done for a lot of this year, which is sort of be okay and not really do a

whole lot and sort of be an afterthought this week. House, I think you said it right. I think even though the odds are pretty tough to bet Rory this week, I, I, I think he's like 11 to 1, maybe third in the odds. I think he has got a great shot to win this week. I walked the last round at Sherwood with him, where, by the way, it was also wet. And he just without even trying shot six under that day. The game is there. I think he has been mentally focused on this tournament since almost the restart and certainly

since he had his baby. and Rory McElroy is going to make a run this week. Yeah, we've been positing that there could be lurking because we know with Rory, so much of it has to do with his psychological disposition each week and last year's Open Open Championship, the British Open in Northern Ireland, probably the most prominent example of this

where he hit his very first swing on the T at the course that he grew up with in the town that he grew up with out of bounds. We know for Rory, as much a psychological game as anything else because all of the tools are there. But we've sort of been wondering, could the arrival of his baby offer a kind of a liberating effect? Could he just feel, feel like he's playing with house money?

So happy with his life and where he is and the golf pressure has been sort of put in the right place in terms of order of priority in his life. And maybe he comes out and burns the joint down. I can see every possible scenario for Rory Macquarie. I could see him playing great this week and running away with this thing. I can see him playing terrible and missing the cut. I can see him being just an afterthought, just kind of being, eh, just being kind of T-22

and kind of not really being in the mix at all. Like I said, I think that there's a higher potential for variance with Rory than most of the other players. I would love to see it. I mean, Rory, I've told people for a long time now that when we use, used to get asked to those of us in the business and, you know, we'd be asked, okay, well, who's like the best interview out there? Who do you really like talking to? And I'd give them a few names and they, you know, people always go, oh, okay.

Like, oh, sorry, I didn't give you the biggest names. I mean, the guys that I like talking to, the guys that I think are the best with a microphone in front of them aren't necessarily the biggest names. Over the last few years, my answer to that question starts with Rory McElroy. He is the best interview in the game. He's one of the best players in the game. I think the game would be in a really good place if Rory can keep sort of stepping on the gas pedal and be that superstar that we thought he was going to be sort of post-Tiger Woods era. And I mean, we're looking at now.

It's been six years since Rory won a major championship. Players, great players don't really do that. They don't have lulls like that. And I understand there's probably more competition in this era than the Jacks and the Arneys and the Garys. and those players had in a previous generation. But boy, for a player who's going to be one of the best ever, to go six years without a major championship is really disappointing. We're all in the same.

For this last round of the bingo bango bongo, let's each name a favorite we like and a sleeper that we like. And I'll ask you guys, do you want to do three favorites, then three sleepers, or should we just do favorite and sleeper each of us? What do you think is best? I'm up with, okay, I've got all my notes in front of me here. So I will just start right off. So the top of my list, as of right now, and we are recording on Sunday night,

and this is subject to change. But as of right now, the top of my list reads Justin Thomas, Patrick Reed, Tony Fienow. And I'm going after guys who are, first of all, trending in the right direction. I think you have to have form going to Augusta. You can't step on the range at Augusta National and try to find it, dig it out of the dirt on Tuesday morning there. You either have it or you don't. Those three are all trending in the right direction right now.

I think they're all guys that have had at least some modicum of success at Augusta. I mentioned before that JT has never finished in the top 10, but he was, I believe, 12th last year. So it wasn't that far off. And I really think that you can go and play good golf on any golf course in the world. So those guys are my favorites. You guys want to do your favorites? I'll kind of look around here for my sleepers.

Yeah, I love what I saw from DJ this week. week. I love what I've seen from DJ since the restart, and I think it's time. But Brooks is back, and Brooks wants this tournament. So those are the two guys I'm looking at. And since I just said, I think Rory's going to make a run. I'm going to say Rory as the three guys that I think you've got to pay attention to this week. I really think Sunday coming down the stretch, though, it's going to be DJ versus Brooks, which is what we've wanted. I know I want that. That's very sexy. And for a couple minutes today, the Sunday last round of the Houston Open, DJ and Brooks had the same score. So I thought coming down the stretch, they weren't in the same group.

But it was still exciting to look at the leaderboard and see their names next to each other. I have two names, and I'm glad that neither one of you guys have mentioned. John Rom is 25 years old. Was number one in the world just a few weeks ago. tied for second at the Zozo, which was the last time that he played, has two top tens in his three Masters starts. And I honestly think that the Masters is the major that fits him the best. Now, he has a game where he can compete in every major.

But I think that the Masters in particular suits him because of the combination of touch, like what we saw. at the memorial where he could scramble to a wind with the chip in on 16 and he also has all of the length that you need and he's he's accurate

and he's accurate down the stretch and I also like the trend line of Sergio and Jose Maria La Thabel to run I mean obviously Seve to Ram I mean that that's a that there's pretty good vintage Spanish vintage there. So Ram is my guy.

The other guy, obviously, uh, is JT. For me, I, I, led the world in strokes gained approach for tour year 2020, even though we're still in calendar year 2020. Tons of shots around the hoop

in terms of victories, uh, since the restart. And he has gotten better each of the years. He does not have surprisingly a top 10 at the Masters. But I like him a lot this year.

I think he might have really acclimated to playing without fans. He's really been playing a lot of tournaments since the restart. So I think, you know, a quiet master's environment is something that he's going to be comfortable with. So my guy is Rom and JT. I like those. And by the way,

if you'd ask us for four favorites, instead of three, Ron would have made my list. He was just off. I have it fourth right now, but like I said, subject to change. When we get to sleepers, guys, I always have a problem with the term sleeper, because sleeper to one person is not the same as sleeper to another person. So you almost need to like, all right, is it 50 to one as a sleeper, is 100 to one a sleeper?

So I always go kind of back and forth. So I'm going to give you some names that are more off the radar. And these really aren't outright plays, but probably top 20s, maybe top tens if you really like them. But Sebastian Munoz has finished top 30 in each of his last four starts, a guy who's a really good ball striker, iron plays his strength. And as I've said, for the millionth time already on this pod, that iron play is going to be very important this week. J.T. Poston plays most of his best golf in the southeastern part of the United States. He's from North Carolina. He lives in Georgia. He should be able to put these greens pretty well. He's never

played the Masters before, but I like him for maybe like top debutante, which is always, you know, I feel like you're wearing a dress and going to a ball whenever the books list top debutante as a prop bet, but I still think that's a decent play for J.T. Poston. And then the last guy, I mentioned him earlier, but Corey Connors had really good ball striking numbers on Sunday in Houston. And so I'm looking for them to carry over to Augusta this week. If I keep talking, we're going to list the whole field. But let's just point out there's a couple of golfers who we haven't talked about. Matthew Wolf, who's at 33 to 1 right now and has played the majors great this year. The game seems to be a little bit in retreat.

At least it looked that way at Sherwood and Shadow Creek. But, you know, he has been stepping up and he sees one of those guys who seem to make the leap. Morikawa is sitting there at 25 to 1 and we just talked about how this is going to be a second shot tournament where they may even be playing lift clean in place. So he will get exactly what he wants is sitting out there. And then, you know, just from a momentum standpoint, Shane Lowry's not, he's 80 to 1 right now, and he showed up in Houston.

So this is a guy who has not really had a whole lot of success in the U.S. since his open championship. And in fact, most of the European golf fans have been complaining because he gets completely ignored and put in the like 652 starting time with, you know, somebody outside the top 100 in the world. But he's a golfer who's been playing. pretty well lately and showed up this week in Houston as we think about momentum heading into

next week. I like both of those. I have a guy who's 26 years old. He's inside the top 20 in world ranking. He's played at the Masters five times. His best Masters finish was back in 2016 where he finished tied for seventh. And I am identifying him as a sleeper because he talks shit about Bryson. And that makes him very appealing to me. Matthew Fitzger's Patrick is on my list this week. And as much as, you know, he's been kind of a mixed bag with him in terms of form. He's played some,

some tough courses well, but, you know, he missed the cut at both of the U.S. Open and the PGA championship. He played well at the BMW PGA championship over in Europe and finished top 10 there. And he was on that leaderboard. Sunday at the Zozo, the thing about Fitzpatrick that is appealing to me is the fact that he is a guy who absolutely can get hot with his putter.

And, you know, that's always, it's impossible to forecast who's going to show up at Augusta each year and then just, you know, make every single put that they see. But, you know, I like sort of soft circling a handful of guys that have that ability. and Fitzpatrick is one of them. And again, I like him because he talks shit about Bryson. The other guy that I'm looking at, is it,

am I allowed to say that Jason Day is a sleeper? Yes, you are. Yes. This is why I put it to the group. He's 50 to 1. I mean, 50 to 1.

A former number one player in the world. He has the same odds as Speeth coming into this thing. Which is ridiculous, by the way. Well, he had four straight top seven finishes and he finished in the top five at the PGA,

but then he kind of fell off. He missed the cut at the Shriners. He withdrew from the C.J. Cup. He put the bed this afternoon, too. He was in contention. Yeah. Well, maybe he wanted to get his rest. He wanted to get into the truck

and get drive into Augusta. Sobel's Phil Mickelson move. Yeah, but he made it all the way to Sunday, so that doesn't really make any sense. I just, it's another guy who I've watched put, put so extraordinarily well.

And what particularly resonates with me is I've been lucky enough, fortunate enough, to go to the Masters a bunch of times, six, seven times. And one of the things that I have enjoyed a couple different times is going over to the practice area, the putting green that's very close to the ropes, where the players are really within, you know, 10 feet of the patrons and watch Jason day putt. just watch him practice putting. It is, it doesn't lull you to sleep, but it's very serene.

It is, the motion is immaculate. You can't believe how gently he touches the ball. The line doesn't move at all. And I know that I'm singing a little song here, but I, I'm going to give him at 50 to one, that counts as a sleeper. I don't care what you say, Sobel. By the way, I love playing the game of, can you believe player A and player B have the same odds?

Because I just looked it up, Webb Simpson and Tiger Woods have essentially the same odds this week. I know. That just tells you how many suckers there are out there. So speaking of that, before we go, is there anything that you're looking for between now and Wednesday night that will determine where you spread your bets?

Is there anything we're going to learn over the next couple of days? Not anything that we will see as far as weather, as far as course conditions, as far as watching these guys play practice rounds, but I will be listening very intently to the press conferences. And certain times, and especially with the guys who are more sort of open and honest, I'm thinking of a Rory McElroy,

I'm thinking of a Justin Thomas. There are certain times when you can catch a little glimmer in their eye and see, okay, this guy's dialed. Like when he says like, I am feeling good, is it, are you really feeling good, or are you just saying you're feeling good? Are you going through the motions or are you really ready to go win this thing? So I will be listening very carefully to and watching their expressions, not just listening to and reading through transcripts,

but watching the expressions on the faces of the top players and then bring about top 12 to 15 players in the field into the interview room on Monday and Tuesday. And so I really just want to parse through their language and see their facial expressions and try to figure out which guys are absolutely, ready to go out there and take this thing. That's great. We will be watching you all week long on the Action Network at the Golf Bet tab, and you will also be all over SiriusXM,

the PGA Tour Channel through the balance of the week. As always, we greatly appreciate you coming on and helping us set up some of these storylines. Nate Dog, what are you looking forward to? All of it.

All of it. Sobel, try and get us sandwiches. Could you do that for us? I'm going to try. You might have to procure the crunchy bacon, which I can't get this year, the crispy bacon. Oh, we know how to do that. If you can get some crispy bacon, I may be able to get some egg salad. Yeah, outstanding. All right, my birdie buddies, there you have it. At least nine storylines, it was nine or 90. I'm not sure how many we got through. We got players, we got sleepers, we got favorites, we've got weather. It is Masters week. Get out your green jackets, your yellow hats, and some kind of belt.

My belt has these flags on it right here. And let's dive in to a full week of green stuff.