Fairway Rollin' - Examining Winged Foot and Top Players With Justin Ray

Episode Date: September 14, 2020

House and Nathan Hubbard reconvene with Justin Ray of the 15th Club to talk about the early goings-on at Winged Foot Golf Club for the kickoff of the U.S. Open (03:03). They discuss how the current weather and atmosphere call for growing insanely tough roughs and analyze which players are best suited for the clubhouse in Mamaroneck. They also take a look at what Tiger Woods may have in store for this year’s open and what he may be saving for Augusta (28:26). Hosts: Joe House and Nathan Hubbard Guest: Justin Ray Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hello, friends, and welcome to this golf podcast, unlike any other. I kind of want to sing here on Fairway, Roar, the Golf Podcast on the Ringer Podcast Network, because it is a major week. The U.S. Open is upon us, and it's at the storied, legendary Wingfoot, the famous massacre at Wingfoot back in the 70s. and we have none other than Justin Ray on the line. Our data analytics guru from 15th Club helps us with all of these majors, trying to figure out strategies and thinking processes for who might be successful at this week. It's a hell of a way to get the week started.

Of course, our PGA tour correspondent on the ground. Nathan Hubbard is on the line as well. The first tee is wide open. Actually, you know what? The T is open. The fairway is tight. Let's go over there worth a three wood and throw a peg in the ground, my birdie buddies. All right, my par saving pals, it is a major week.

It is a U.S. Open week, which means we have to have our major expert, our major guests. Justin Ray is on the line. J.R., what's happening, my brother? I'm good. I'm not as good as Washington football fans sitting at 1 and 0, but I'm great. It's your soulbook, man. It's a big day for us.

Just give us this Monday. We have one Monday. It is a really great moment to be a sports fan here at America. The NFL got off as off and running. We have a major this week in the golf. College football looks like they got some successful games underway. The NHL playoffs, the basketball playoffs. It's a great time.

But, you know, the U.S. Open. This is the latest. this tournament will be competed in like a hundred years or so, right? Something like that? Francis, we met in 1913. That was the last time the greatest game ever played. That was the last time there was a U.S. Open held in September. So tough act to follow, guys.

Good luck, Chris. Greatest upset in the history of sports, maybe. I think Stuart Sink finished runner up in that open. I'm not sure. I mean, if it was really case, Stuart Sink would have won. I saw someone yesterday said they're surprised. Stewart Sink didn't win the 2019 master. Just, you know, robbing us of hairy eggs and all his chest hair

and then 11 years after Tom Watson. We got to give a quick shout out to Stuart Sink. I love old guy golf. Old guy golf, he tracked down all those young fellas out there in Napa. And, you know, it was nearly a bogey-free performance. What do you have, two bogeys for the week? Yeah, something like that. Unbelievable performance.

My favorite number from the week, though, I think it was Mark Anderson, probably nondescript during the tour pro. No bogeys for the entire tournament, and he finished 38. Wow. How is that possible? Wow. That's unbelievable. I mean, I couldn't believe that when I saw it.

It was only like a third guy in 10 years to not make a bogey. Well, if that happens this week, the guy's going to win the tournament. Yeah, going out of a limb there. Yeah. Well, that's a wonderful segue into exactly what we are confronted with and by this week. the storied legendary Wingfoot hosting a U.S. Open in September up in New York, just north of New York City. I know how the weather's been here in Washington, D.C.

It is perfect weather for growing thick, nasty, gnarly rough. I believe the same is true in New York. J.R., what are you expecting this week out of Wingfoot in terms of, you know, the conditions up there? Patrick Reed said it's the toughest rough he's ever seen in his life. John Robb said he'd be shocked if anyone broke apart. Those two guys' opinions, two of the best players on the planet, I'll let that sit with everybody in terms of the difficulty we can expect. It's not like wing foot.

Wingfoot traditionally too is like it's the quintessential old school difficult US open courts, right? You know, when Jeff Ovalby won in 2006, he won without shooting a single round under par. No player is one of major since then doing that. that par or higher for all four rounds and win. I mean, you think to, I mean, any golf course that has historically tied to word massacre to it, like the massacre at Wingfoot in 1974,

seven over bar when the tournament, anytime massacre aside to a golf course, you know, what to expect. Like, far is your friend. There's going to be a lot of really difficult bars throughout the week. And hey, I mean, look, we've had some U.S. opens in the last few years where, you know, Woodland was double digits

under far last year and pebble. They ended up in Quinn. You know, Aaron Hills, obviously the scoring was historically low. I've got kind of in the mood for something like this. For a really tough, food tests, really put the best players in the world

on point. I mean, like how much trouble was the B&W championship? We had that unbelievable finish between Ron and DJ. All the week was scoring being in a premium and birdies were really, really valuable. I mean, it was a nice change of pace. After all the low scoring you saw

since the return of Gulf post the COVID pandemic hiatus. So I expect looking 06, about half degrees in regulation were hit by the field. There's not been a major last 12 years that have a green regulation percentage lower than what we saw in wing foot in 06. I expect more of the same.

I think, I don't know, 100 or 200 might win the tournament. It might maybe even or over far. I never know. All right, quick break, my eagle enthusiasts. I don't know if we're going to see any Eagles this week, But I want to talk about whoop. Whoop is a fitness wearable that provides personalized insights on the performance of your sleep. Also, how recovered you are, how much stress you put on your body throughout the day from both your workouts and the normal stressors of life.

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the Fairway Roland Doe leaderboard series continues for leg number three. We have four events in the Fairway Roland Doe leaderboard series. This is the third. We have the PGA championship under our belt. We have the tour championship. I finished, I think, ran around a thousand out of about 4,000. I'm not at the top of the leaderboard at this point. But look, you get yourself a lineup in. still two chances to jump in there. If you score outstandingly this week and then at the Masters, you can get in. They're tallying up all the scores through the series leaderboard.

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potentially we like Tommy fleetwood obviously the top three DJ Rahman j t you can't fin them all in your lineup but we're doing the research we're getting out some of the information this week. We got J-R. today. Another show coming up Wednesday. Check out our thoughts and our picks. You can get yourself to Fandul.com slash fairway rolling to enter the U.S. Open contest before it locks Thursday morning. That's Fanduil.com slash fairway, R-O-L-L-L-I-N. You can enter that contest. Continue listening to the Bill Simmons podcast, this Fairway Rolling podcast throughout the golf season to find out how you stack up against the competition. My birdie buddies age and location restrictions, of course, apply.

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So I'm hoping that NBC figures out a way to bring that to life. But given what we know about the course, Justin, what are the stats that you look at this week to help you figure out who's got a shot to win this thing? I think the first thing I start with when we talk about the rough being so penalizing. Look at golf forces that regularly on the PGA tour generate really difficult rough situations. It's like the story's going to be lower higher than typically seeing this golf tournament. But Bay Hill every year, the proximity from the rough is among the most difficult in the game. So I kind of tend to look at, if you're looking at regular events and things that might correlate between this week and the U.S. Open, I'd say there. I start with just the off-the-tee penalty of missing the fairway.

I kind of compare, you know, obviously we haven't had a golf tournament here since 2006, so it's tough to do apples to apples to comparison in terms of player performance on the golf course. But look at kind of how players performed on the traditional U.S. Open venues in recent years, like Marion in 2013, Oakmont in 2016, maybe Pinehurst in 2014 to a little bit lesser extent, and see kind of how those golf courses played and what traits were most important there.

But I think if you've got a venue with a rough, is this penalizing? There are guys that you can look at right off the bat, and they're just too wild. You've got to scratch them off the list. It's got to take so sad to say because of the unbelievable history as here, but, like, filled it like 14 fairways in Napa, like Phil Nicholson cannot do that on this golf course, especially, guys like Mark Leashman and Patrick Reed, who were among the lower-ranked players in driving accuracy among the media players in the world,

you just wonder, you know, how are they going to be able to adapt to something that's going to be dis-peneralizing in terms of you miss small tea. So that's where I start first. Putting statistically tends not the numbers on travel as well as ball striking, so I always him to lean more towards the ball striking number. But I think it begins and ends with players can keep falling in the fairway and effectively gain strokes on the field not just by distance, but through accuracy. Talk a little bit about what you're anticipating

in terms of the premium on scrambling. Because I'll tell you this, one of the ways that I got myself in the mood for this week, the guys at Friday did an incredible eight-minute video. Shout out to Andy Johnson, the Friday guys. They sat down with Gil Hans, who undertook a restoration in 2017, and they sat down with Jeff Ogilvie, who Nate just mentioned, the last winner of the U.S. Open at this venue, and went through kind of, you know, some of the attributes and characteristics of the greens and some of the work that Gil did in terms of restoring, you know, some of the green complexes and creating whole locations that. that weren't available back in 2006, but they are now,

based on what we've just sort of outlined, what you outlined in the way of what we know about the rough and we know about the greens, the crazy tilt in these greens, the front to back tilt of the greens, the undulations and so forth, what, there has to be some important value on scrambling, right?

Yeah, definitely. Only 40% of the field, the scrambling percentage of 06 if we've put was 40%, which is incredibly low, one of the lowest in any major championships over the last 20 years. You talk about those little changes

in terms of the complexes and whether it could put pins. It almost makes me think more about the need to play the whole backwards a little bit where I hate to harp on it, but it's the significance of getting your first shot in a place where you can approach the green in the appropriate way

or you can miss on the right side, miss on the correct side, and not put yourself in a position when you're having a fight for a really far. You know, U.S. Open greens are always going to be quick. They're always going to weed out, poor plutters on that given week. And this golf course, you know, you've got to expect if the rough is bad on either side of the fairway, it's going to be just as bad or works around the greens, right?

So there's definitely a premium on that. It's tough to predict how specific that where that number will be this week. But look, look, it was incredible. difficult in 06, and I expect more of the same this week. Well, you talk about 06, and of course, we're going to be bludgeoned to death about the Phil Mickelson meltdown. Somehow, the other guys who choked that year from Colin Montgomery to Furek don't quite get the bashing that Phil does. But we saw another old guy, as we talked about, when just this past week at the Safeway Open and Stewart Sink, is there any, you know, there are a lot

of young guys coming into the tournament who we can maybe talk about later on in the show. But is there any type of golfer old, young, you know, foreign domestic, are there, is there any sort of category of golfer that you look at this week who maybe has a chance or absolutely does not have a shot to play well on this golf course? Do we think the older guys in Phil and Tiger, who are going to, who are going to stroll into this thing after taking a couple weeks off, have a shot to play well here or not? I mean, one of the first things that I look at going into a major championship and have the last several years, one more incredible trends in the sport, we have not had a player

ranked outside the top 50 in the world win a major championship since Keegan Bradley of the 2011 BDA. It's a crazy street. That's 33 straight majors. We're a guy ranked in the top 50 that we've been on the win. So I don't know if that means we're overdue for somebody to break through. was kind of off the beat in bat. It's like it's been a while since a,

since a Darren Clarker was shown McKeel, you know, one of major championship. Well, I think that speaks to the depth of the top of the sport, right? It's really, I mean, that upper echelon of player now is really, really good, and it's difficult for a guy to break through, have a career week, you know, and win from kind of out of nowhere. Even like a BGA championship, the guy who was, quote, unquote, out of nowhere was Scotty Sheffler,

U.S. Junior Amateur Champion, PGA Tour, who are probably rookie in the year. I don't have I'd named that yet. I think I'm spending here in the next day or two. But, you know, that's the dark horse. Like, that's the dark horse coming out of nowhere

who's a guy who shot, you know, 59 the next week or two weeks later, you know. So it's really tough at the top of the sport. You know, traditionally too. The older guys don't typically be normal while in the U.S. Open, you know, Gary Wimblin, winning at 35 was basically an aberration. not 35 as old in the golf years at all.

He was the oldest winner of the U.S. Open in over a decade, I think, when he won last year. So it typically skews towards the younger players. It's typically a more grueling physical test. Now, it's not being held in the middle of the summer. You know, maybe that lets guys, maybe it's not as physically draining as the week goes on and you could see a couple of older players, you know, sneak in and contend. But, yeah, typically here at the U.S. Open more so than the other

other majors over the last 10, 12 years, it's been the youngest of four major championships in terms of average age and winner. So kind of the opposite of what we'd see in the open championship over the last decade and a half. So you hate to just point to chalk, you know, that doesn't super interesting. But like the trends we've been looking at tonight, I said 33 straight guys rank inside the top 50. I don't necessarily see an old guy breaking through and winning this week.

I mean, maybe the age cut off of around 40, but I don't know. we'll see. You know, strange the thing to that. Well, I want to talk about another category and ask you if this category I have in mind has any chance. But first, quick shouts, we mentioned Scotty Schaeffler. Scotty is not going to play this week because he tested positive for the COVID. So we're hoping quick recovery for that, that it's, you know, maybe he doesn't experience

any symptoms. Another guy that is not playing this week that has withdrawn is Brooks Kepka, who withdrew. it seems like because of the continuing issue that he's having with his knee. But I mentioned Brooks because we have this trend with the U.S. Open of longer hitters having success. And the category of golfer I'm wondering about at Wingfoot this week is shorter hitters. Is there any kind of thesis whereby guys who are more accurate in the fair, airway that are not afraid of getting to the front of a green in three shots and then scrambling for saving bogey or par. Is that kind of golfer capable of success this week?

I just think it's so demanding to put that on yourself over and over again to win, like, say, most famous example, obviously, Zach Johnson, the Masters when he played up on every part five. It's so taxing on a player throughout the week at a U.S. Open to have to do. that over and over again. You're just putting so much more stress on your short game and having me perfect. I just think law of averages says it's going to be really difficult for that to happen. You know, the last, last shortage hitter to win in the U.S. Open, you look back to the recent champions, you know, Jordan speeds above average distance. Web Simpson, you know, it's kind of in 2012. It's kind of an average distance. Like, it just doesn't happen that often.

Graham McDowell, not the longest guy, but Cuddle Beach is probably the shortest major championship than you're going to find outside of the open modem. I just think that it's so, like I said, it's so difficult to put that demand on a player's short game over and over again. It'd have to be kind of a Webb Simpson-esque performance where, you know, Webb is in the bottom half of driving distance last year. It's still in the scoring title because he was outstanding at everything else. I think that's kind of the profile you've got to put together for the tournament if you're not one of the longest players. Now, like I said, there is the great on accuracy, but the first thing I'm looking at going into the week are guys who are above average distance, above average accuracy.

They're going to put themselves in position over and over again for scoring opportunities. In this case, our opportunities at a really good point. Well, so Nicholas's first putt at wing foot, apparently he ran at 30 feet past the hole the first time that he played this course. So of the ball strikers, right, that would imply that you've got to, got to have the ball in the right spot to have a shot at the hole. Of the ball strikers, who overlaps then in the Venn diagram of guys who have that good first shot accuracy? Who do you look at of the ball strikers that we think of, Morikawa on down, who might have a

shot out here this week? So I'll start at the top, the two guys who are the most balanced lead players right now. John Ron does not have a weakness in his game. Statistically, or otherwise. You know, he won a tournament. He showed at the BMW Championship, too. He can win a golf tournament. It's not particularly super low story. He can win in a grind.

He's been in the top five. His trophy about Petit every year since starting pro. He's, I think he's around like 60th in driving accuracy, which is well above average. It's a good number to have, especially for a guy who hits as far as he does. He's somebody who can put it all together. Obviously, he's super talented.

I don't even tell you how great John Vam is. Which Justin Johnson do we see? that's another guy. You get the guy from the last 36 holes in Eastlake. I mean, that's going to be a tough guy to beat. He was hitting him in the fairway. But if you get the guy who had two fairways, I think it was Friday and Eastlake,

that's not going to play here. He's going to put a big number on. This is a guy who has a ton of success, obviously, historically in the U.S. over the last 30 years. Only Payne Stewart and Tiger Woods has led after more U.S. Open round from DJ. So I start there. That's kind of the easy thing to look at. And then the other guy,

who I really, really like a lot to speak. I know he's going to be a favorite. Zander Schaulet, the last time we saw him, he made everything he worked at. His putting was through. I think he was 100% putting from 4 to 8 feet, which is

just exorbitantly good. He can take that putting stroke with him with the way he's played in the U.S. Open the last three years. The last three years of U.S. Open, he's third in strokes gained off its east, who's got the driver in the bed. Third in proximity to the hole. So he's hitting great iron shots.

He's second in storing to Kefka, who's not there. And he leads everyone in strokes came cutting from the U.S. over the last three years. So if you're looking at the statistical profile, everything coming together, a guy who he had the low 72 old score the last time he played. And he's like, obviously, you know, with the staggered strokes, he didn't move in the golf tournament. But, I mean, he fits everything to an absolute perfect team.

I really like Zandeshawford a lot. He's a guy that fits all those different kind of statistical profile. Two of the other guys who I like too, Daniel Berger is almost like diet John Rom in terms of the balance he has across his game. No real statistical weaknesses. In 2020, he was 35th or better in every stroke's gain in nomination, which is, you know, that's a balanced attack, man. That is really good. And there's a reason why he was on top of so many weird things. He's consistently way above average in driving accuracy, yet he's still longer than the average PBA4 players.

He's going to put himself into good positions. He finished third or better, and half of his start since the hiatus. Berger is so close to being a really elite player, and I don't think anyone would surprise them to first major championship. So those are the first guys I look at. Another guy who want to talk about European players, Tommy Fleetwood hit the ball brilliantly in Portugal last week.

Now, the field wasn't the strongest to compete. We finished third, but he gained more than 17 strokes TDGree. in the Courtful Masters. Second best was around 12. So that's how much better he was than everyone else in the field there. And obviously he's got a couple really high finishes from the U.S. Open.

So Tommy fits that driving profile too. He's longer than normal. He's pretty accurate. He puts himself in a lot of good positions. That's why he's had great success at the U.S. Open. So very long-winded answer. Yeah, I like that. And I wanted to, I have Tommy here on my list

because his performance since the restart has been somewhat lackluster until this week in Portugal. Now it is on the one hand impressive that he flew himself to Portugal to compete in that event. He said, I don't have enough competitive rounds. I don't have that feel.

I need to have the competitive rounds to have the juice for the major. 11 straight made cuts in majors for Tommy. plus the super high pedigree. His performance at the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock was spectacular on that Sunday. And, you know, the British Open in 2019, I like Tommy, and he's some value at 40 to 1. I have some other guys. Yeah, so Tommy at 40 to 1.

That's one that's going to. Yeah, I just saw you. I just saw your eyes get big. So we're going to do a little bad. That's going to be a value play. And he's going to show up in the DFS lineups also. I have some other names I want to talk about, but I don't want to go any further without talking about this week in Tiger Woods.

Tiger, Tiger, Tiger, Tiger. So what do we think? We will try and be optimistic. We will say for sure that he will make the cut because of the old Wiley vetting him. But what is what's the highest ambition that we might have for Tiger at this venue this year? ambition isn't high if he doesn't hit in the fairway. I mean, and the places he's won, Eastlake Masters. Masters doesn't even have it.

So, I mean, like, it's, man, it's tough. I mean, you want to see the guy succeed. Obviously, it's so good for this part. This is just not the force profile. If he can hit him in the fairway, he's still among the top five or six iron players in the world, statistically over the last 18, 24 months. Even since the restart was limited amount of play, the guy can roll out of bed and be the best iron player

on the Ranger every time he steps out there. He's got to hit it in the fairway, though, man. And, you know, he just doesn't have a lot of competitive reps. He wonder what that putting stroke looks like. He's wavered back and forth between putters since coming back. You know, hopefully we see, you know, some glimpses of Old Tiger here. but it just it just doesn't fit the profile in terms of strengths and needing to hit the ball in the fairway.

Hopefully I'm wrong and he can, you know, if he hits, his goal should probably be, probably, I'm tired of this. From a statistical standpoint, I'm thinking like if he hits nine fairways around, he's going to put himself in a good position with success. So that, but that's a lot to ask. That's more than he hits normally and we'll see if he can pull that off. Got it in the fairway. This is like the only major that in the 2000s he missed the cut at at this course. So this is weird to say, but I think making a cut is going to be a pleasant surprise for Tiger Woods this week.

And that's probably the first time we've said that since he first came back from the long layoff. Wow, Nate dog. Guys, isn't this all house money for Tiger until we get to November and he's defending in Augusta? No, it's all gearing up for that. It'd be nice to see him pick off a win. Maybe the Zosos going to Sherwood, a place where he's had a lot of successful success over the years. We always think about him going into a major championship.

But on the other side of 40, you don't typically think of anybody in that age group is competing in a U.S. Open. He's further down the list for me. And I kind of agree with Hubbard that it's going to be a made cut, that'd be a pretty positive mode. Any tournament where you can get a prop bet that a guy's going to lose is, shoe in the rough is not good for a guy who has a back that is not particularly reliable. It's just going to be hard for him to get through that grass and get through two days, much less four,

of moving the ball up towards these greens. I think he's going to struggle. I love that we're giving him basically senior citizen status here. I want to make one quick observation. The 2006 U.S. Open at Wingfoot was indeed the first miscut in Tiger's career as a professional in majors, it was also the first major that he played in after the death of his father. And so he still had some stuff going on. And it took him a little while golf wise in 2006 to get, to get rolling again.

The Tiger truth are in me. Look, you can talk your way into it. Here we go. I'm, I mean, if there is anything about Tiger that we've learned over the past 25 years, it's to go ahead and dismiss him. It's to go ahead and undervalue what he's capable of. And the one thing that I personally am willing to go ahead and invest a little bit of positivity into is who's better than Tiger Woods at strategy, strategically getting around the golf course, knowing what he has to do to be successful. I'm not saying that he will be able to execute his

game plan, but I believe he will have a superior game plan, perhaps the best game plan of any player showing up at this venue. I admire the positivity. I was looking for the snow and I found it. Last player aged 44 or older to win a major championship. Hale Irwin 30 years ago. It's a tough ass man. And in the modern era of majors, less than 2% of maybe he won, six for 3131 by players age 44.

math is not on his side, time's not on the side. But I admire your optimism not been dialing it up and doing it with strategy. I like him a lot in the future at Augusta National, obviously. And I think he can definitely win another rope in championship. I just don't see it happening. I think the weirdest odds this week are Tiger Woods at 28 to 1 and Jordan Speeth at 50 to 1. Those are two of the just like if you're betting those odds,

you are betting with all of your heart and hope, as opposed to any of your head at this point. That's just sucking in football fans, right? Who are at the window and, yeah, we'll put something on Tiger this week. Why not? I like that number, you know? So, Justin, you told us that we can effectively cross off anybody who's not in the top 50 in the world unless we get a Ben Curtis moment, which, as you pointed out, hasn't happened a long time.

I have a question for you, now that we're into this wraparound season, in hindsight, we got such great golf over the last couple of months. You got a lot of guys playing well. Is there anyone outside of that list of, you know, probably the top eight guys that we think can probably win this thing outright? You know, DJ for sure, Rom, Rory, J.T. You mentioned Xander, you know, Justin Rose, Webb. There's that crew of guys who, sure, you wouldn't be surprised they're in the mix. But there have been some other golfers who've had some momentum through. these playoffs. My question to you is, when you look at a course like this and a tournament like this,

does momentum matter? And are there any guys between that, you know, position 10 and 50 who have it coming in, who we should be taken a look at? I think it can matter. And I know everything here in 2020 is just so weird in terms of when we're talking about sports and trends and everything because it's a completely oppressive environment. You know, momentum is really just another way to say player. form and how he was playing.

One guy who I am kind of bullish on this week, who hasn't won a little while, but last four or five years, he's always one of those guys who've expected to break through and win a major championship. Is Zedekhi Motsiyan. I'm really positive on him

this week. He finished third at the BMW championship in really tough conditions. He was second on the PGHs for last season. He starts paying team to green. If this guy has a hot putting weed, he can win any tournament by six shots. The problem is that just doesn't happen. He's a, he's a below, well below average flutter throughout his career. That was kind. That was kind.

Yeah. If I'm going to be bullish on the guy, I've got to be positive in terms of describing his ability to butt. He's an unbelievable wall striker. This is a ball striking competition, which is what we saw in the BMW championship. It was really tough. And the top of leaderboard is Dustin Johnson, John Ron, right behind him was decking. I'm positive about his performance. He's had some success at the U.S. Open. He's competed in a couple of them five, top 25

since 7 U.S. Open starts, I believe. So he's one guy who's a little bit off, maybe a little bit off the beaten path than I'm positive on. I'm not really going on too much of a win. He's 18 from the world. So it's not like I'm it's not like I'm reaching for Ben Kervix or anything, but

I'll have Hedekhi on my sheet here. I'm looking at because he's available at 35 to 1 right now. And you mentioned his his success at the U.S. Open. His string is tied for second, tied for 16, tied for 21. Those are his last three U.S. Open performances. And I think he led the field in scrambling at Olympia Fields. I mean, he absolutely scrambled his ass off.

He was able to save par from everywhere at that U.S. Open venue. I interrupted because I wanted to get a little Hedecki love out there because I like that 35-1. So Fleetwood at 40 to 1, Hadeki, at 35-1. Those are two guys going on my dance. card. Who else in that 10 to 50 range are you eyeballing? You know, if it's the name like Jason Day, he played well for the PGA Championship, wild as hell of the scene. He just hasn't been finding a fair way for me real bullish on him. Mark Leishman's same kind of thing. It didn't play really well in the playoffs.

And of course, the Sicily Novakar team and the championship kind of not really high on him. Well, let me let me give you a name. I have a name that I think it could be a sneaky. It's weird to call a guy. right around the top 10 a sleeper. But what about Patrick Reed? Patrick Reed's available right this second at 40 to 1, a top 10 finish at the Tour Championship at Eastlake, a known grinder. We know with him,

notwithstanding some of the personality, I'll be generous about it. We're gracious at the beginning of a championship week. We'll just call, you know, he does have the attribute of showing some of that grind, some of that, that patience, he has a little bit of fight in him. What do you think about Mr. Reed? 15 finishes in majors since he won the Masters coming off.

He was 10th at the Open last year, 13th and PGA played pretty well. He's another guy who I had written down though is too wild to win this week. Oh, too wild to win. If I'm sticking to my guns and I'm committed to that theory, I may think that. Look, when he won the Masters, he scrambled and putted better than anybody by far. It's short, it's short games. to the group. So if he has another week like that or like he did be one in Mexico

and had like, I think it was the most one putts ever by a winner on the PGA tour or something like that, he can definitely you know, he's kind of like I put him in the same driving accuracy boat as Tiger where the Patrick Reed hits nine or more fairways around. He's going to be a force to be reckoned with. It's just a matter

can he do that. So he's probably not he wouldn't be the first guy I'd go to, but I could see it happening if he has a great week, you know, find him in a fairway. It's just going to be so penalized and gradually. Justin, you spent a lot of time modeling out golf and looking at the analytics and the statistics that, you know, portend performance in the next week.

How do you factor in heart? We talked about Tommy Fleetwood before. Tommy Fleetwood has broken my heart so many times in golf fantasy, you know. And is there like a coefficient of doesn't have the stones to get this done that you weave in? or do you ultimately believe that the statistics reflect the heart of a player like that? I don't have anything on the spreadsheet that's like Stroke-stained heart or, you know, Stroke-stained Cajunas or anything. But I will tell you, there are ways that we've, look, it's one of the,

this is kind of inside the bellway, but it's one of the things we've always wanted to kind of quantify in this world that I work in, right? Is, you know, who's the best clutch putter? Like, who's the best putter within two of the lead in the final round, the back nine? who's the best driver in that situation. So we have ways to try to kind of figure that out. I tend to believe, though, in terms of, and this is pretty much all sports, if you keep putting yourself in situations

and positions to win, the probability works out that eventually you can't do it. So whether that's, you know, all the heartbreak that Sergio Garcia had through the years, I know he was labeled as a guy who couldn't get it done, couldn't come through, would choke and watch, whatever it may be, you put yourself in a position to win over and over,

in and eventually he gets his breakthrough in a moment. So that's kind of how I feel with a guy like Tommy Fleetwood is that, you know, he really hasn't been around at the peak of his game for that long. I think that he's going to keep putting himself in positions to win, and eventually it's going to happen. I feel the way about Sander, you know. I feel that way we're going to see that with Bryson down the road in terms of being able to put yourself in a really good position over and over again.

And the numbers say eventually that you're going to break through. I know that's, I try not to be a computer or a robot when I answer those types of questions, you know, but it's a great thought. And it's obviously something we definitely try to weigh into it. And you've got to add a little bit of the human element when it comes to, you know, picking a player and what they've done in what's situations or whatever it might be. Sometimes you've got to look a little bit beyond the raw data and see the human side of it. Well, I asked you that question for the express purposes of one of the guys that you just mentioned,

who we have not talked about now some 35 minutes. into this, which is Bryson DeShambo, who I think two months ago would have been in the top three of everybody's picks for the U.S. Open. He really seemed to fade as we got into the playoffs. You haven't talked about him. Is that because he's just struggled with the accuracy and on the one heavy rough setup course at Muirfield where we saw him, he took out a three wood and tin cupped it? Or is it that? you know, he may just not have the mental fortitude to get through an event like this. The mental fortitude part could be part of it. I more so have looked at, you know, his performance

data before and after he won since the restarting, I get rocket mortgage and free and confused, but when he won up to the point where the restart and through his victory, he was gaining so many more strokes off the team and everybody else that he was able to be and he was putting really well too he was able to be mediocre with his broochler right so that advantage he's not driving the ball as well the last few weeks he's still the best player tricks you know team for that advantage isn't as big and his putting hasn't been as good and his iron storm so i mean i don't think you can just you know wail on the ball and hit the hell out of it and just see where see where it lands and play it from there like he did when he won a few weeks ago.

I think you've got to be more precise off the team. I don't see it as a great force fit for Bryson this week. You know, it is, you know, if you're a guy who's confident in Bryson moving forward, you've got to be heartened by the way he played in San Francisco. Harding Park was by far as the performance in a major. So you see glimpsons of maybe what he can do moving forward. But in terms of course fit, it just doesn't really, it doesn't really fit with what he's done the last five, six weeks closing up.

I want to offer a quick defense of Tommy Fleetwood. I understand Nate, where you're coming from in terms of, you know, a guy that's been around the hole many, many, many times and hasn't jumped all the way through. But that performance on Sunday at Shinnecock, to me,

that was all the stones, all the heart. And I know we're disappointed that he was on the leaderboard at the PGA championship on Saturday. And he wasn't able to, able to sustain anything into the weekend. But I'm not ready to just call Tommy the heartbreaker. The guy that fits the heartbreak for me is a guy that I'm not going to invest anything in.

That's top five Tony, Tony Fee now. All the game in the world in terms of his scoring capacity and also an outstanding track record at the majors. He has a great run at. the majors. But Tony Fee now, Justin, I'm interested in your thoughts on him. And then we haven't talked about either Rory or JT yet. I mean, Rory's kind of an easy one because it's easy to say my homie's at home in diapers, working the diaper chain. So, you know, where's his head? Where's his, how sharp is he going to be? And then JT's around the, got to be part of this conversation. Let's do Tony first. And then what your thoughts are.

on Rory and JT, if you will, please. Yeah, starting with Tony. I mean, look, the narrative around him is obvious as what you're saying, top five, Tony. This is just continues. But he goes back to what I was saying earlier, a guy who's continuing putting himself in really good positions week after week. Like, you just think this guy's going to run off two or three wins

and maybe next season. Like, it's got to happen. He's just too talented and puts himself in position too many times. He played well of that really difficult BMW championship, too. you finish fifth, you know, fitting your top five Tony nickname. I mean, he's got all the requisite skills needed to contend this week. I mean, he didn't play extremely well at the four championship, didn't contend, but I can totally see that happening this week.

Whether or not he can win, I mean, that's another story, but he was the 54-all co-leader of Shinnecock a few years ago with Daniel Berger on that crazy Saturday. So he's got a pretty good history in the big events, and he obviously has all the talent in the world, so I could see that happening. Rory is interesting to me. Looking at Rory's numbers since the restart, his iron play hasn't been nearly as good as it was entering the great.

He was top five in the PGA tour before the hiatus and the stop the player championship. He was top five for the season in greens and regulation and strokes came approach since the hiatus lifted these 58th and 79 statistics. So I know we're always talking about the putter with glory because his driver is always there. He's always awesome off the tee. And the putter is always what's in question.

But really, it was the iron playing to put him down over the last six set of weeks. So finally snap that run of four finishes in Tour Championship by playing through a lot. But he's interesting, too, because, you know, all the games he made last season in terms of putting, all the metrics were way, way improved after he started working with Bradfax. They didn't necessarily carry over during the while this year. So the baby factor is interesting. It's going to be something we're going to hear about, you know, maybe more than we heard about the fog in San Francisco when we watch the U.S.

open next week. But the other stat about Rory that I think is, I think is fascinating because he's a guy who we think would have done basically everything in golf at this point. Every single win in his professional career, his score has been 12 under or better. he's never won like in a Ryan type of situation. And I'm not saying that he can't do that. It's just that we've never seen it. He's won a lot on courses where it's a birdie competition.

It's guys attacking pins. It hasn't been, you know, or it's your friend type situation. I just, a guy has had, you know, more than 25, 30 worldwide wins every single one that least flaw in. That's crazy to me.

So I kind of have that in the back of my mind going to a place where I think story is going to be premium. And then Justin Thomas, look, he can compete everywhere. I mean, there isn't, of course, for Justin Thomas because he's not going to the ball. Right. He's the best player, Tina Green, on the BGA tour the last

two years. He's the best player in terms of the strokes game approach this season or in 2020 since the restart. Any way you slice it, Justin Thomas is just exemplary ball strike. Now, he's been prone to make some big numbers here and there in major championships, and that's kind of pulled them out of it

sometimes. But, you know, he can avoid the big number and keep falling the fairway. There's no reason to think that Justin Thomas can't be in that same kind of DJ Ron class. Head to head, which Englishman do you like better? Terrell Hatton or Tommy Fleawood? Oh, that's a good question. I love it.

That's a real good question. Now, Hatton, his metrics all just skyrocketing the season time he played with PGA tour. I really think Hatton is due. I know he's a top 20 player in the world now, but I think he's really, due for a breakout into the next phase of his career here over the next two, three years. I think he'd be a pretty good future's bet for me to win a major in 2020. Next week, though, with as great as Tommy Fleetwood's ball striking numbers were, Fleetwood's hit nearly 70% of his dreams and regulation in his U.S. Open career.

That's best of anybody in the field. I'll narrowly take Tommy, but that's a really good bet. That's a tough one. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hatton content. Haddon won on a really difficult setup and conditions at Bay Hill right before the hiatus too. So great question, but I'll narrowly take time. All right, J.R. We're going to let you go, but we need one name.

We haven't done, we haven't put you on the spot yet. We've talked a lot of names. Give us one name. Who's your horse this week? My horse is Zander Schafflin. Talked about him earlier. How great he's been at the U.S.O. in the last three years.

Best stroke-skine putting of anybody of the U.S. O in the last three years. Most one putts per round at U.S. Open the last three years. Third in stroke speed off the teeth, third in proximity. He's been great in all facets of the game of the U.S. Open and his career there. He effectively won the last time he played

at the low 70s score. He was like putting his tail off that week. Zander is my guy to break through and get his first major challenge. I love it. Nate, Doug, what do you got? Anything? I don't think I have to pick until later in the week,

that's right i know you you you don't i just we only have justin you know with a it's a rare opportunity we get jr on the line here nathan that's a great call in this covid world i mean i might get off the phone and find out zanders out you know we have no idea you know scottie shep over the chakra that's a good call by you i i just i can't wait to see moroccoa play this course uh because if he's straight with the driver i think he's going to have the best look at birdie anybody in the field and as long as he doesn't contract the covid i'm feeling better and better about uh about his chances, but we didn't even talk about him on this podcast until right now.

He continues for some reason to be underrated and looked over. So I can't wait to see him play the course. JR, always a pleasure. The 15th Club is your place. You'll be putting out newsletters, interesting data points all week long.

I know your 10 notes email will go out Wednesday morning. First thing in advance, If you're all the birdie buddies out there looking to come up with fantasy strategies, DFS strategies, a little bit allocating of the capital. You got to look at 15th club. If you're not looking at it, you're taking that money and you're flushing it down to a toilet. J.R.

It's a major week. Thank you, my brother, for coming on. All right, my parsating pals, there you have it. Good way to wet your beak for this absolutely wonderful U.S. Open major week. We do indeed have another show coming up this Wednesday. Two, extraordinary, special guests, very special guests, guests a little bit off the beaten path, one right down the middle,

he's going to be trying to hit the ball in the fairway, and then one that I'm not going to tease at all. Just a guy who loves the game of golf, who's played Wingfoot a few times. It's made me good for a few chuckles. All right, my Bernie buddies, there you have it. We shall be back on Wednesday. If you get around between now and then,

make sure you hit them straight out there.