Fairway Rollin' - Final Masters Prep and What We’re Hearing From Augusta

Episode Date: April 10, 2024

House and Hubbard are here to give you their final insights heading into this year’s Masters. They discuss how big of an impact the weather will have on the field, their takeaways from the press conferences, and what they’re hearing from the likes of Jon Rahm, Wyndham Clark, and Max Homa (02:50). They end with their list of potential winners for the tournament (38:45). The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Hosts: Joe House and Nathan Hubbard Producer: Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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This is Fairway Rowling, a golf podcast on the Ringer Podcast Network. This, my birdie buddies, is your final estrus preparation. I am your starter, Joe House. I'm joined by our incomparable accomplice, our PGA, tour boots on the ground. Nathan Hubbard, it's a two ball. We're off. Nate Dog, neither one of us are on the grounds.

It's 2.30 in the afternoon on Wednesday. We're looking at weather forecast. We're looking at press conference. We're looking at body language. I do have a couple reports from the grounds. And Ricky Fowler is at 5 under on the par three contests, which I bet holds up. And it makes perfect sense because Ricky Fowler is not winning the Masters this year.

I think a lot of guys are not winning the Masters this year. The last 48 hours has changed a lot of how I think about this tournament. And House, we're used to being there on the ground. We are getting a lot of reports from the ground, which is helpful. But, I mean, let's just start out of the gate. Listening to everybody who shows up, the course is in unique shape right now. and what we mean by that is guys are hitting five irons into a green that are bouncing and catapulting over. These are some of the hardest conditions that we've had probably since pre-pandemic,

even since that weird November master, November masters. And so the first thing that I think about is the coarse conditions. The second thing I think about is the cluster fuck of a storm that is, coming through Thursday and the wins that are going to be in place for Thursday and Friday. And we'll talk about how that affects the early late groups and all that. But I just step back and go, first of all, my eyes go to house. I wish that the final score bet, I mean, final score being lower than minus 12, worse than minus 12, which is what ROM won at last year, is plus 100 on Van Duel right now. It's not great.

But I'm going to be stunned if they get to minus 12 this year. So that's interesting because it's really within the control and power of the great green jackets to impact. And you would imagine that the pins will be generally in the neighborhood that they tend to be in on Saturday and Sunday. And so the great equalizer here in terms of the ultimate winning score, is what impact does the bad weather Thursday and the wind into Friday have? What does it do to the cut line and how much of a suppressing effect will that have on the scoring into the weekend? Right. And I mean, a plus 100 is the market's throwing up their hands.

It's even money, right? It is. It doesn't. That's the problem. I wish it was different. I mean, there are going to be wind gusts of 40 to 45 in the month. morning. I don't expect they're going to play in the morning. Yeah. So let's talk about that real quick because that's, you and I are on the same page.

I honestly think, especially in view of the mishap last year with the trees coming down completely unexpectedly and the great fortune of Augusta National and its members and all the patrons and attendance there and the players that no trees hit any persons, that everybody, you know, got got out of that situation without any, any injury, a miracle. I, to me, in view of that context,

they're right. So they're not playing. Because you can't have people on the grounds is the thing. You can't let people arrive at eight o'clock or seven, whatever, to see the ceremonial first shots and then have EVR and who's EVR playing with, like Jake Knapp or something,

going off at eight whatever. as the storm approaches. Yeah, exactly. Can't have that. No, and you're going to have Jose Maria limping around after him getting smashed. No, they're not going to do it. In part, because they don't want

assholes like us sitting in Berkman's just drinking incessantly and costing the money, which is what we did last year as the tree fell. I don't think that's the main consideration, but it's definitely got to be one of them, for sure, yes. But that's why it's, I mean, they're going to get an inch to an inch and a half in the morning.

And then it sounds like there's going to be a lull between one and four, at least on the rain front where they can get guys in. But the winds are going to shift. They're still going to be 30 to 35. And then Friday, you're going to have Gus up to 30 all day. Look, the winds will be 15 to 20, Gus 30 to 35 tomorrow afternoon. Friday afternoon? Thursday afternoon? Thursday afternoon.

Thursday afternoon. And then Friday, you're going to have wins 15 to 20, gusts up to 30. So you're going to have a lot of wind out there. but it does feel like that morning, the morning tea times that get pushed, that might be the only time you get greens that are soft

because they won't be able to dry them out in that one to four, one to five, one to six p.m. window tomorrow. The afternoon tea times, I doubt are going to get it in. They're going to have to finish on Friday. And so it may be that they're able to,

the guys in the morning are able to attack only a little bit, that the greens will be a little bit softer just in that window. Then they're going to turn on the sub-air systems. Then you're going to have big gusty wins and we'll have weekends and, you know, the weekend will look like what it sounds like these practice rounds look like, which is really, really taxing, demanding spin control and, you know, and trajectory to get these balls to stop on the green. So with that, I look at the morning tea times and say, if there is an edge in the quote-unquote wave, I'm looking at guys in the morning.

and lo and behold, you know, the power groups are all going to be in those first two hours. I mean, Hideki's supposed to go at 1018, which is two hours, you know, whatever. Jake Knapp and Eric Van Royen will be round in the turn then. Hideki goes at 1018. Rom goes after him. Sheffler McElroy, Zander, which is the real power group,

goes after them. And then you got Wyndham, Victor, and Cam Smith. and then all the way down into the afternoon is when guys like Jordan Speath Ludwig Sahith, which is a fun group, but they're second to last off. DJ and Colin and Tommy are last off. So you look at guys like that and go,

they may not get the benefit of those softer greens Thursday afternoon. Their rounds are going to be starting then, but likely mostly a lot of golf on Friday when you're looking at Gus up to 30 and maybe the greens have dried out a little bit more than some of the guys had at least on their front, call it nine to 15 holes on Thursday. So that's the only advantage that I see right now.

I just think all these guys, they've got to survive to the weekend house. Well, it's not that dissimilar from last year in that respect, although if indeed it's the case that the weather forecast holds, and it really is like condensed, you know, know if it really is a front that comes through and it's going to be kind of nine a.m. to kind of 2 p.m. And that's what the way it looks as we're sitting here right now.

And indeed they postpone the start of the tournament to sort of, you know, after lunchtime. Then that does, it feels like to me, give almost enough time to get, it depends on whether they do, you would expect them to do split teas. If there's an announcement that they're going to postpone, then we're going to have recent going off one and ten when they when they reconvene what would you guess they try not to do that they i i it's hard to do that that's a change in the competitive preparation i think versus just the timing but maybe that maybe they'll break it and send guys off i i actually be surprised if they do that do they want to not have anybody finishing the

cut saturday morning that to me is like kind of one of the drivers of the decision making around this. Now they are in possession of minute by minute, you know, exactly what the contours of this front look like and, and, you know, down to the minute, because it's the masters and they have the power of IBM behind them. Down to the minute, you know, like this is exactly when the front will be gone. This is the last time that we'll see a drop of rain on Thursday. Like, they have that sort of in hand and they'll make their decisions based on that. But I don't know that I think, anything other than the guys going off, the early late, if indeed what we are imagining,

what we ourselves are forecasting here comes to pass, which is the tournament decides to start late to not put anybody in harm's way. And there is going to be water. You can't subair out an inch to an inch and a half of rain. But that decision that you just highlighted, I mean, if they do go split T's, then there's not going to be an advantage.

And in fact, probably the guys who get started on the back will get to take dead aim. It'll still take time though, right? It'll still take time to get, you know, that entire first wave if you're, if you're compressing that first, the guys that would go off between eight and 12, if you're smashing them all into a time window

when they're all going off at 1.30 or two, it still will be the case that everybody that's lined up to go late might only get a couple of holes in Thursday afternoon or late evening. They had 82 guys. on the course in in San Antonio this past weekend in threesome's off front and back so I mean they certainly could get guys out there

no they can do it I mean Tiger 1 in 2019 with with you know split T-threesomes I'm almost positive that's the way it was yeah so it'll be interesting to see if they make that change anyway it's worth paying attention to because there will be some live betting opportunities depending on how they split these things

things up. I just think if guys get to go play, you know, holes three through 12 or whatever, with the greens a little bit softer out of the gate, that other guys aren't going to have that opportunity on day one. That could be a stroke or two of an advantage. Well, the other question I have for you is like in view of this and wanting to get everybody around and get the cut establish and have most of Saturday set aside for the guys that made the cut, what's that mean in terms of pin choices? Doesn't that suggest that they'll be somewhat benign because you want to get everybody around? Well, and they may also need to make the pins a little more benign because of the wind.

Uh-huh. I think they can't really change the green speed at this point, so they're going to have to be careful because 30 mile an hour gust will move a golf ball on the undulation at six on Augusta, depending on where they put that pin. for sure for sure for sure okay so uh the imperfect science of trying to guess what the weather's going to do yeah and it is an important story it really is an important story because there are you know three hours between spith and ludwig and brooks uh you know who are who are three hours later than schephler and rom and rory and zander and those are all i just the more that i look at this and now we can dial back out to

30,000 feet. I'm sure I'm going to be wrong about this. But when we talked with J. Ray this week, we started to go down this path of, well, you know, because you've got guys like Morikawa or maybe Max or even you might say Victor, guys who year over year are playing a stroke to two strokes worse in terms of their overall shots gained, that maybe opens up the field to more potential winners. And the more that I listen to the state of the course and the shape of it and the best guys coming off going, wow, haven't seen this course like this for a long time, the more I think it actually shrinks the field. And I know that makes us chalky and we hate to go chalky. But to me, I think there's a list now of under 10 guys who can win this tournament. Somebody else might,

and they might get lucky. But I just think, I think it's fewer than 10 guys right now. who have the skill set to go out there and compete, given that there are some absolute sure things that are going to push the scores up. I just, I don't know where you landed, but I came in excited about Brooks. Boy, he shot 77 77 at Dural. Those were his last two rounds of golf.

And he's jumping back and forth between the mallet and the Scotty Cameron, and he's always the confident one, but it just doesn't love. look from afar. He also spoke confidently when his hip and knee were blown out and he couldn't play golf well. It's just what Brooks does as he puts up that facade. I don't know that I feel great. And I'm the guy who said if Scotty doesn't win, I think Brooks is going to do it because I think he wants it so badly. I'm just when, usually when Brooks says one thing and does another on the course,

it's it's glaring that he's not playing his best. And when he told everybody, well, I'm in on the mallet and I'm all set. And that's, you know, It just, it lowers your dispersion and you're good. And then he's walking around with Scotty Cameron on Tuesday and Wednesday, and both of them. It, it shakes me a little bit. I understand that. And I'm not going to try and dissuade you. Most of that information was present as we sat down and started handicapping this thing with our pal, Justin Ray, on Monday.

We knew that he was experimenting with putter. We asked Justin, do we know, would you factor that in? But it's, it is still Brooks Kepka. It is still the masters. we know that he wants it. And, you know, I don't, I'm disinclined to get too concerned with him when it comes to where he's at. If he's physically able, what he proved to us last year has such a lasting impression on me. If he's physically in shape and is physically capable of getting around, then, you know, like fade him at your own peril.

So I am not that moved off of him. I still think that he's one of those 10, one of those 12, if that's the direction that we're going now. I got spooked. I got spooked thinking about the results and then looking at the putter shift back and forth. Let's put it this way. The only guy who could do that and still come out and play well this week is Brooks Kepka. Anybody else.

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Opt-in required to bonus issued as non-witrawable profit-boost tokens. Restrictions apply, including token expiration. See terms at sportsbook. Vandul.com. Let's talk a little bit about the press conferences to see if that moves you one way or the other. I have a couple guys where it was like confirmatory diligence for me, but I'm curious to hear who you saw, what you saw, and whether that pushed you in a direction one way or the other.

Yeah, I cross Beath off my list. Wow, amazing. And I did it because I think the wrist is bothering him. Yeah, it's such a bummer. And I think this is going to be a year in which the Speethean over analysis, of shots and his tendency to try to go for something that he shouldn't in a moment is

is going to bite him. I mean, I think he still can absolutely top 20, but I do not believe Jordan's beat is playing well enough to win this golf tournament right now. And I think the injury is going to struggle. So that last part, I just want to tap the brakes, he was pretty effing good in his

last round, last two rounds in San Antonio. Yeah. And that was just a couple days ago. It was. But the fact that talking about the risk publicly tells me it's bothering him. So you're concerned that he's creating a safe space for himself to land softly. These are harder shots. These are harder shots. These are harder shots. These are harder shots. That's a true story. And I think, I mean, the bummer of it is like the playing in the wind in San Antonio is such good preparation for what they're going to sort of encounter

potentially if this forecast stays this way, right? And I think, I think it's why the press conference and the par three contest, if you noticed, Rory has been a ghost. He showed up early to the press conference, and his press conference ended only a few minutes after it was supposed to start. Amazing. I loved it so much. He did not play the par three contest. I love it so much. By the way, neither did Zander.

It's fine. And neither did JT. It is fine, but this is about no distractions. And I think Rory playing the way that he did in the wind, last week is going to get him coming into the weekend in the top three. I really do. I think he's changed his approach. He's gotten some focus from Butch on his takeaway, understanding about if he sets the club in the right position, everything from there, you know, on takeaway, everything from there flows naturally and easily. And I think that was one of those like, oh, okay, I'm going to

make it really simple. And instead of thinking about 6,000 things, I'm focused on one thing in my swing. And it is, am I taking the club back in the place where I need to? And then I don't have to think about anything. Then I'm just hitting the golf ball. And I'm not thinking about the part three contest. And I'm not really going to get in front of these people and talk about Live and the PGA tour stuff. I don't have to do that anymore because I don't represent it. And I'm only going to take a few questions and that's it. And I think he is laser lock. So I really love the Rory story coming out of these coming out of the press conference. And I know that we've been talked into it

because one week ago we would be fading the shit out of him. We would. Who's me? You and I, we were not excited about Rory before his performance in San Antonio. Ah, yeah, okay, great. He had not had a talk to him.

Clarification, got it. Yes, for sure. Okay, good. But I think what we have seen is it's clicking and he's doing some different stuff. And this started really full swing season two, we saw it where he was like, I need a rebuild. Well, he didn't do a rebuild. But he stepped down from his forward-facing position. And he's made changes, I think, with an eye

towards this tournament period. Yeah, no doubt about it. So I don't want to walk in here with a giant, a Stanley Cup size and put it in front of you. Cup of Hater Aid. But I'm going to do two guys right now that I'm both, I'm betting on both of them that missed the cut. Oh, wow. And if you dare, if you dare, it pays better than 13 to 1. You can parlay them to both.

Talk to me. So one guy didn't have a press conference and has barely been seen at all. And I honestly was leaning in the direction of taking the advantage of the way his numbers have gone down. That's Justin Thomas. Yeah. But I got a report on the grounds that he is. out there in Strugglesville that he is he looks to be in search of now the popular narrative is

he and bones parted ways and that um you know that also that's a prime indicator right on the eve of the masters how does that make any sense um i was starting to subscribe to the notion that um that could translate into a liberating effect that maybe he's freed up that whatever that communication was happening and maybe miscommunication that was occurring between them not being on the same page maybe like just the overall change in vibe might be the thing

that would push JT in the direction because he's got top tens and top fives this season. He just was terrible at Riviera and was terrible at the players championship and you know I was going to say we can overlook

those because of the quality of his finishes at this very venue. Those are the hard tournaments for crying out loud. And the real problem is for me, for Rib, you can't just dismiss Rib because of its corollary to this place. Why can you dismiss the players? I mean, why can

you dismiss? Well, the players is its own unique animal. Like, you know, I don't mind a guy missing the cut at the players and then coming back and... Okay. How about a T-64 at the Valspar? Look, that's literally the thing that led to him and Bones, you know, saying

this ain't working. Yeah. We say it's been rolling. He had a T3 at Amex. He had a T6 at Pebble, T12 at Phoenix. But then it's been cut at the Genesis, T12 at API, but where he shot 69, 71, 71, 72, 73, increasingly worse through the weekend, a 71, 74 cut at the players,

and then just sort of met with a Saturday 79 at Valspar that was really ugly. So it looks to me like, quietly, he's searching. searching exactly and you know my reports from the grounds was uh him looking on uncomfortable not not you know he's out in the most comfortable three-sum for his practice round with tiger with freddie his buddies for life his legacy you know he's not playing the par three with jordan and rickie who were playing together and and the wednesday Wednesday two years ago, you and I were walking those grounds while that same thing was happening

and guess who was on the putting green, just fucking grinding. It was Xander Schofley. And we came back and said, Xander cannot putt right now. He does not feel good. And it's not going to happen. And there are a lot of signs here that JT is not where he wants to be.

You don't break up with your caddy the week before the Masters if everything's going fine. You don't. And so, right. It's not going fine. Patty who's won the Masters. Not only that, not only is it not going fine,

maybe not the liberating effect that I was kind of imagining that we were going to get some value. So JT to miss the cut is plus 270, I believe, yes, Justin Thomas. Are you going to link him with Cantlay?

No, no. Can't lay, I think, could sneakily come out and be, I'm going to look at him for first round leader, where, you know, he just, you know, he has a very good early performance record at Augusta.

Yeah. I don't see him, you know, really doing anything because there's no. I mean, he's head to head with Victor. Well, now we're talking. Okay. So you're out on Victor. Victor's the one. Yes.

Yeah. Yeah. He spent so much time in that press conference talking about all of the things that he's looking for and all of the ways that he's working. People are talking about him being big into astrology. week it feels not right it feels not right it feels uh off kilter and it's a very peculiar thing because he was literally the very best golfer on planet earth in august of 2023 he was better than scotty sheffler he'd look scottie sheffler right in the eye now scottie's not an east

lake fan so uh we don't we don't kill scottie for that and and and if we parlay those two to miss the cut you think it's it's it's 13 to one is what you're telling me. You don't think you know. I'm better than 13 to 1. I'm staring at it right now on the Fandle sports book. Yes. Okay. Um, so those are those are kind of the, the, the fage. You don't have to spend your hard-earned money in this manner. If you do only, um, spend $5, please. But, uh, yeah, that's some of the press conference or lack thereof. Um, yeah, well, response. That's, that's where my head's at. There are two others for me that stood out. And we should also talk about ROM individually. But there were two others. And I, I wish I could take,

take a julie elean parlay right now because Windham Clark sounds hugely confident. Yes. I mean, he sat down and said, I feel great about where my game is. I love the way this course fits my game and I'm ready. And I know this is his first go-round. But boy, on the list of guys who can win, Windham Clark is there for me and I wasn't sure until this week and hearing him talk. I, when you contrast that with the way that Ludwig talked about it, Ludwig sounds cautiously optimistic, but not hugely confident. And now he is not a chest beater.

And, you know, we know that a lot of the way that Windham speaks publicly is in part to sort of train his own mind. And Ludwig will hang around. I just don't think Ludwig has a chance to win. I think Wyndham Clark has a chance to win. So I love where you're going with this because, folks have been making the observation. You know, in a year where for the first time since 1991, we've had an amateur win a professional PGA tour event.

And in a year where Scotty Schaeffler does something that hasn't been, ever been done in the players championship, which is to win back-to-back years, is this the year for a debutante? And I will say the way that I'm preferring to play this. So I do think, I mean, it's, it's, they've been talking about it on Live From. It's never been the case that a player has showed up fourth in the world and only playing the master's the highest ranked debut ton ever.

And Ludwig is the second highest ranked debuton ever. Right. So the way I'm preferring to play this, and once again, we're in a territory. I like both of them to top 10. And individually, you can play Ludwig at plus 250 to top 10, win them plus 300 to top 10. And magically, if you parlay those two, it pays 13 to 1. So for whatever reason, we're on lucky 13 today, Nate, dog. I mean, the number four player in the world being plus 300 to top 10 is money well spent, I think.

Well, Nate Dog, let me bounce this off of you. If we are really in this direction, let's pick up the great positive vibes of our guy, Akshay Batia coming off of that tremendous win in San Antonio, looked right down the Beryl at Denham Carthy. Here's what I'm going to do. Let's do a little three-legger. Let's have some fun with this. Aksh to top 20.

Now, again, this is, you know, be careful out there, my friends. But Akshay to top 20, plus 230. And let's go with your boy, Wyndham Clark, plus 120 to top 20. And Ludwig, Oberg, we've been talking. Come on. Plus 100. Even money to top 20. If you put those three together,

Oberg, Clark, Achshay, Batia, positive vibes only. plus 1352 on the Fandu Parley cumobulator that's pretty good I know you're on on board

with that one that's a reasonable investment just do it with a couple bucks for giggles but the Debutton Parley has some juice I'm leaning

I'm kind of loving it well so there's there's the first of Julie Elion's clients the second is Max Homa and I listened to him he jumped on with Shane Bacon

and Sully from No Laying Up on the Master's Twitter feed yesterday for 35 minutes. And he gave a fucking clinic in wisdom about this course. And first of all, what he said is my golf swing feels right now as good as it's felt, better than it's felt in three years, at any point over the past three years. And I go back and think about what is Max done over the last three years. And well, that's when Max Homa became Max Homa. He said, I'm putting it. I just am not seeing putts go in, but they feel really good.

You and I saw him this day last year. True story. And he was just in horrible mood. And he spoke to that. He spoke to that on this broadcast, that he was just in an awful mood the whole time, and that it's changed some of the way that he's prepared for majors in general. I'm reminded that back at the British, he finally had a performance worthy of his talent in a major.

And I just wonder, when I heard him speak about everything that he has learned and that the November 2020 Masters, you couldn't really learn anything because the course was just totally different. And that, you know, year three, you really start to pick up the subtleties of where not to hit it and how, you know, stay away to. from the dog leg sides, right? Don't be on the inside of the dog legs. And then when you're in the trees, you know, right, he's hit enough bad shots that he knows now, when do I try to make a shot here? Or when am I just trying to go over the back on seven

because that's an okay place to be, but do not under any circumstances be in that front right bunker because dot, dot, dot, dot, right? So just listening to him carve up those kinds of choices and decisions, you suddenly realize this guy has an extra club in the back, basically, because he's just smarter than, for example, Ludwig walking in, who, yeah, somebody's given him a few pointers here or there,

but until you've sat there under tournament pressure, hit a shitty shot and gone, okay, what do I do here, right? On eight, like, I got to stay away from the left side on eight. If I go in the bunker, it's okay. Did you see Cam Smith last year hit out of the bunker up onto the green to make eagle, like one of the best shots, like you're fine there, overrotate to the,

just the things that take time to do. So I was really impressed with the way that Max talked about his swing and the way that he talked about his understanding of this course. I don't have Max on my list of guys who are going to win.

Yeah. But it really sent me into Max Homa, when you think back to his last major, and the way that he's talking about himself in his game, Max is going to have got a great chance to top 20 this week. Well, and I like that.

Let's be, you know, fair about it, right? He's plus 450 to top 10, plus 175 to top 20. And you hit on some of the key elements here. Obviously, the headspace is the best that we've encountered as he comes into this. But the reps are invaluable and incalculable. And it's the reason why, you know, all of the filters that people apply to this when they're trying to handicap, potential high finishers, potential winners, depends on experience and why it's been so rare

that somebody shows up and wins the thing outright. But Max, he checks so many of the boxes in terms of the filters that you want to apply. He's in the right place in the official world golf rankings. He's in the right place in terms of driving distance. He's in the right place as a guy who can hit the ball high and have it land soft. He's in the right place in terms of strokes gained approach.

His strokes gained around the green is positive. And he's better this year. He says he's better than he's ever been this year. So those are all like, so top 10, top 20, if you want on a little homie home. I love it. That's a, that's a great one. What did you see from Rom? There's been a lot of chatter about him seemingly having some regret or at least he's,

Listen, I appreciate that he's always spoken his mind and spoken the truth. And his truth is that Liv ought to be playing 72 holes. It feels like some of the golf media spun that into. John Rom has massive regrets and doesn't want. We haven't gotten a lot coming out of last night. He was the one who stood up and was the host and gave a bit of a toast. And, you know, he went to live thinking that his departure was going to accelerate the coming together of Liv and PGA Tour. hasn't quite happened that way. I think to a little bit of disappointment from him,

I wonder where he is. He sounded to me to be a little bit conflicted on that side, but mostly just grateful and grateful to be a champion there and excited to be in a room with all those guys. I didn't feel a deep sense of like Rom in conflict. Did you take away confidence, no confidence? How do you feel about Rom after hearing him speak this week? So I want to be careful to not arrive with my preconceived sort of narrative as it applies to ROM infecting a genuinely objective evaluation. But it's kind of more the same. I mean, I was prepared to fade him this week anyway. I do find it super curious that we keep having this chatter, this murder, this murder.

murmur of him expressing something other than complete satisfaction with his choice. There's no debating, you know, and Justin Ray put it into his article up on the athletic handicapping this. There's no debating that he's played barely half the rounds coming into this year that as compared to last year, like less than half the competitive rounds. So, and you're playing. But so at Brooks and he won the PGA and almost won the Masters. They're just different animals. wired differently.

I mean, you know, Brooks... Yeah, I mean, Ram's begging to play more. Brooks was a great thing. Let's golf for Brooks, man. Brooks showed up, like, the healthiest he'd ever been. Rom's begging to play more golf with Norman.

And here, Brooks is like, just fucking let me play four tournaments a year and fuck off the rest of the time. That's kind of right. I also just am skeptical of a guy, a first-time winner, and all the responsibilities that go alongside that, it impacts your ability to prepare.

There's no doubt that you have obligations. It's hard to repeat here. That's right. That's right. It's not your week. It's your, you as a defending champ week, which means you have all these obligations that are not incontinence,

not in harmony. Contrast it with what Rory's doing, basically ghosting. Right. Right. Yeah. Exactly. So my fate of ROM remains my fate of ROM.

I'm in the like top live, top live finisher markets. You know, I'm looking for that. Okay. I've got a little dabble on Sergio, hilariously. Our guy, Pat Mayo, had some stuff up.

It caught my attention on this. Sergio played great. And also Sergio loves this place. So, like 18 to 1 for Sergio's top live golfer. There was like DJ is in that market at a decent number. I think he was like 9 to 1, something like that. And Joaquin Neiman,

who I think is going to be the top live finisher this year, if it's not Brooke. I have Brooks covered off with top tens and top 20s. Neiman it like, I don't remember what it was, six to one or something. It was another sort of interesting play, perhaps. Well, as we talk about our list of who can win then, I mean, mine is really short and you're going to hate one name on it.

And it's massively chalky. But I just, I am convinced right now that the state of the course and the adversity that these guys are going to face over the first two days, plus the fact that they gave us a bunch of the best guys clustered in a group, and I think they're going to push each other above the rest of the field. I think just putting Scotty, Rory, and Zander in a group. Are you kidding me? Unbelievable.

Unbelievable. And by the way, they didn't make it a feature group. It has to be that the telecast just begged them not to do that with that group and with the Sathath-Ludwig group, right? Sure. Has to be. They're just like leave something for us because otherwise nobody's going to want. Well, look, here's my list.

and you're going to hate it, and it's super chalky, but these are the only guys I think can win. I think it's Scotty, Rom, Rory, Zander, Hedecki, Wyndham, and Cam Smith. And I think Cam Smith, which I know you're going to hate, I'm going to get to, let's not talk about Cam, but I think Cam Smith, because I've heard about eight stories this week

of incredible shots by that guy on this golf course. And I think he's been through it and won the British. He's been quiet. I get it. But when you think about his performance, performances here in the past, if we think some guys can make a jump, and you made the reference early in the week, does he even give a shit about golf? Does he even like golf? That's all? That's my only Cam Smith-knock. I like him otherwise. I like him here. I just don't know whether or

he cares. They may be right. I just think of guys who can win without just like falling into, you know, without Trevor immemling or Schwarzling into some luck, Danny Williting into some luck. I think those are the guys. But this is the bet I want to ask you about. Because on Fandu, there's the big guns versus the field. And you've already said you're fading ROM, so you may not like this, but Schaffler, Rom, Zander, Rory, plus 158 versus the field.

How does that strike you? Absolutely not, under no circumstances. It's not appropriate return for the risk. It just doesn't feel that way, does it? I'm not, you know, you got to see it one time out of Xander. It's fine. Like, I keep betting Xander top fives and top

tens. I'm fine with living in that market with him. Just not betting him to win the golf tournament at any odds less than 30. I don't care. Here's the thing with Zander. Here's when I'll sit up and take notice. And I've said it a bunch of times. His caddy is a lovely dude and they have a great relationship and they're the best

of friends. I just can't see it. It's literally the only thing holding me back with Rory. It's the thing that that concerns me the most. If Rory hired bones, you'd feel differently. Yeah, well, only because, not because Rory's incapable of, of, capturing the golf course and capturing the tournament

and that this is a difference between him and Xander. Rory doesn't need a caddy for the purposes of helping him map out his way. No, he needs it for his mind. He needs to punch in the balls one time. Like he just needs to get out of his head. And this is the thing,

like Xander gets on a downward path. And we've just seen it too many times where he can't fix it on his own and he doesn't have a dude that's going to help him fix it. So, um, We does have a new coach who's working and giving him information outside of his dad.

We're allowed to say out loud that it's Chris Como. I mean, he is working with Chris. Yeah, he's working with Chris. And look, he's first. He flew home to San Diego, you know, over the last two weeks to go grind putting because he's relocating to Florida. But he hasn't made it yet. Fair enough. But he's first in three putt avoidance this season.

No, he's third and going for the green. He's seventh in greens and regulation. He's fifth on approach shots from 200 to 225. He's third on all shots approaching over 200. I mean, he is playing some of the best statistical golf that we've seen. Obviously, second and scoring overall. He's going to get one house. I can't.

I know, and I'm the guy who sits back and says, this generation of guys who don't have one, Zander and Cantlay, it's going to escape them because there's too many good young guys coming up who are going to grab it. And, you know, it may not be Ludwig's year this year, but that guy's going to win the Masters. He's going to win the Masters. And it may be that for Spieth, it's too late and for JT. it's too late that, you know, the next generation's coming up.

I get it. I just think this place in Zander and maybe the introduction of Chris is going to make a difference. I mean, I feel the same way about that injection of fresh ideas as I do with Rory, spending a little time with Butch to just simplify it down to what are, what's the first, you know, four rotations of takeaway. I'm right there. I don't want anybody to misunderstand.

I am locked in on Zander and Zander is locked in on this golf tournament. I just am not betting him to win. That's all. The odds of suck. So I know you love Hadeki. Who else should be on that list among Scotty Rom Rory, Zander Hadeki, Wyndham, Cam Smith?

I think you would cross off Cam because you just don't know if he cares. Who am I missing that you think really has a really can win this golf tournament. Well, it sounds like you left off Brooks. Why did you leave out Brooks? I got scared by Brooks. I told you I got spooked.

I just, I think the switching of, I'm seeing too much of what we saw at that U.S. Open when he was bullshitting the press about whether he was leaving for live. And Brooks is not a liar. He likes to just say it like it is. And when he starts saying things that aren't consistent and true, like when he was hurt but wouldn't say it,

he plays like shit. and right now he's saying, oh, I'm good and I've got the mallet, but he's got the other putter out there. It's just not accurate. And I think anytime he gets into that disconnect, Brooks likes to be the straight ahead. He'll be in your face.

You know, you like him, you don't, but he's going to tell you what he thinks. And when he's not doing that, he just never seems to play well. And that plus 77 77 in a live event at Trump Doral. Well, that's resort golf. He's playing it in his shorts. He does he give zero Fs.

We've established that. He's established that. I get it. But that's why I crossed them off because I was like, no. No, it's going to be too hard this week. It is. Tell me, do your list one more time so I can listen. Scottie, Rom, Rory, Zander, Hedecki, Wyndham, Cam Smith.

Okay. So for me, the only names that I would add. And I will tell you, you know this because we got down, we sat with Justin Ray and during the course of that show. You like Shane Lowry? It only feels like I am going to have put Shane Lowry in there. now because like the evidence suggests it reflects it and then I have one other guy that I'm going to add

in that I think it's right to be cautious with don't go jump into the markets and do everything but I'm just not going to leave Justin Jordan Speeth off my card. It's not going to do it does not going to do it. Okay. Not at the masters unless he's walking around with a cast on

the wrist right? Because he just played too well four days ago. You know what I mean? I just can't leave them off of a card at the Masters. I can't do it. Where are you on guys who are in the sort of, you know, 28 to 40 range? Like, where are you on Neiman to win, Ludwig to win,

Bryson, we know what you think of Victor. No, no, Bryson. No, Bryson under any circumstances. I have exposure to a bunch of those guys. You do not to win. I have Neiman, top 10, top 20. Yeah, no, no, no, no. the only only kind of you think fienow can win okay no okay no no i i wish it was different i wish we

could say yeah uh that this would would would be the one i just i don't think he has the makeup for it he he might win a major i my major for tony fienow would be the pga championship right i don't think that he's got um the the makeup for um winning this this this golf tournament outright it was staring him in the face and he hit it in the water playing with Tiger Woods. He was standing alongside his idol and hit the ball in the water. So that was his last best chance. Like Willie Z, it would be cool for him to catch lightning in a bottle. You know, there isn't anything performance-wise to suggest that he's coming in in superb form.

It's good for him to be healthy. Again, I do have a little exposure again, not to win. It's insane that over the course of this week, Justin Thomas is all the way down to 50 to 1. insane. It really does show you. Would you be shocked if Cam Young won? I would. I would. All right.

He's definitely playing well and it's a sexy pick that a lot of guys are adding. I just, I'd be stunned if he ends up winning this. Okay. I mean, he checks a lot of boxes over the course of this year. He is his best master's finishes inside the top 10. He's 14th in the official world golf rankings. He's top 15 strokes gained approach. top 20 strokes gain T to green.

I mean, you know. He's doing it all. He still hasn't won a golf tournament. Hasn't won a golf tournament. Masters ain't going to be the first one. I just don't feel like that's going to be the first one. And I think highly Cam Young as a human and as a golfer. That's not what it's about.

I just. No, no. We're trying to make some money out here. You know, he was T-36 at API, T-54 at players. Yes, he was second at Valspar. Yeah. Well, let's let's end on a positive note. Are you going to say I know you're moving off of Brooks for your winner.

I'm giving you a second bite at the apple. You just gave us six or seven names of potential winners. Give us a winner here. The Wednesday afternoon final Nate Dog prediction. How can you not say Sheffler? Okay. No, no, no, not Sheffler. We're all in agreement.

Scotty's going to win. That's the not Scotty. Yes. I'm sorry. I should have clarified that. Oh. I got over-excited about Xander. I know that yours is Hideke.

I think Hadecki's in the perfect position. I'm not going to change. I wouldn't if I were you. Yeah. So because you took him off the board, I'm going to pick Zander, but I think I'm over to you. That's super fun.

Hedeki's paying 20 to 1, and he's playing as well as he possibly could be at the moment. And he knows how to play in these conditions. He's going to be able to handle the, drop. I just think that's it. Now, do you believe Rory has any chance to win this? Of course. Of course I do. I already bet on it. I told you I did. I'm not betting. I got him, you know, when he was in the nine and a half to 10 to one range at the beginning of the season. I had a sidebar with KVV. I, I, look, I want, I think Rory can win this week and I think he's doing

psychologically the things that he needs to. He's going to win a master's. I just am starting to believe that it's going to be more like Sergio's where it's going to be one of those later in the career, feel goods. That's fine. He's not that far away. He's only got a couple years to catch up to where Sergio won it. Yeah. Yeah.

So it could be. But I just, I think that group, Schaeffler, McElroy, Zander, that's where I think the winner's going to come from. And I think Xander's, those guys have to get through a fairly tumultuous Thursday and Friday. But if they do get a window where they get an advantage against Wyndham and a few of other guys who are Brooks, who are going to be on the later T-times, if they get a window where for three and a half hours,

four hours, they get to shoot a little closer at, you know, as you, I think correctly prognosticated, easier pins. That could be the difference in the tournament. It's literally the way that Hideki Matsuyama

won the Masters. It's literally that, that kind of paradigm you described. All right, I have Nate Dogga featured parlay going up. The ringer specials are still available on the Fandau page for the balance of the day. Now, look, when you look at the odds,

you have to remember that if you select any of those, you get a 30% profit boost. That's what changes the situation from what odds. You can play parlayes. You can combo the guys on your own, but you're getting a 30% profit boost for anything you associate with it. But I've got my own featured parlay going up there,

Nate Dog, putting the finishing touches on that. You and I will be together, in Los Angeles, California. It's a wonderful thing. Not in Augusta, but in Los Angeles. I'm looking forward to waking up and having Masters for breakfast. And we're going to maybe you and I play a little bit of golf.

But we also invite ourselves onto the Podfather's podcast. Thursday night, assuming that there's been enough golf, we'll get a segment with the Podfather so that the BS podcast will be up on Friday. We'll be on that. And of course, we will be here to recap the, green jacket when it's on the shoulders that podcast and on Fandul TV that that recap Sunday night into Monday look forward to that in the meantime there's no reason you can't get out in the morning you're gonna try to yeah and go go get in a loop and if you're able to do that please let's

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