Fairway Rollin' - Final Thoughts Heading Into the Open Championship

Episode Date: July 19, 2023

House and Hubbard convene for their last-minute thoughts heading into this weekend’s Open Championship. They start off by discussing how the likelihood of rain will affect the tournament (04:15). Then, they talk about their favorite plays for the weekend, including House’s confidence in Jon Rahm (10:45). After, they explore the featured groups and end with some parlays they’re placing (19:51). The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Joe House and Nathan Hubbard Producer: Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Yes, indeed, my friends. This is Fairway Road. A major golf podcast on the Rigger Podcast Network. We have our final major staring us in the face. I am your starter, Joe House, joined right at this crucial juncture. by my incomparable accomplice our PGA tour. Boots on the ground, Nathan Hubbard. Two ball, trying to get you ready here at the last minute for filling out

your fancy lineups, your betting cards, whatever way you'd like to speculate on the outcome of this 151st Open Championship. We are here for you with some final thoughts by Birdie Buddies. Two ball pegs are in the ground. Nate Dogg and I are swinging. simultaneously. Nate Dogg, avoid the,

the inner out of bounds, but otherwise, how are you doing? This has been a weirdly quiet open prep weekhouse. Maybe it's because Rory decided to pass on his press conference.

Maybe it's because there have been lots of overt displays of friendliness between live and PGA tour golfers. You're seeing Rahm and Mickelson play around together. You know, you're seeing Rory and Brooks spending a lot of time together.

They're just, it's been wonderfully drama free. It feels like maybe the most drama is this weather. What's happening with this weather house? We can't not include Brooks Keppko walking with Captain Zach Johnson.

Right. Also was part of the, you know, the, the harmony and peace that's out there. But for sure, Let's just be clear. He's on the team, right? Yeah, he's on the team. Why would they keep him off?

A million percent. It's the PGA of America. It's not the tour that runs the Rider Cup. And the PGA of America is not going to exclude its champion, the guy who won their championship at O'Kill. And, you know, even if Zach Johnson had a very principled basis for making an argument to the contrary. the eyeballs on the television screen is the thing that's most important to the PGA of America.

So he's on the Ryder Cup and that's great. I want to see it. I think you want to see it, right? The 100%. We're trying to win. I'm trying to win. It's going to be hard. You know, there's a decent chance, by the way.

I didn't get a chance to tell you this. I'm going to go play that golf course. I'm going over to Italy in August. I think I'm going to go play the Marco Simone, whatever. I'm just going to invite myself in. I think I'm going to do it. You're going to stop me? No, I'm going to encourage you.

I'm a little pissed that you're telling me this now. We could have done this together. You could come to Italy. There's still time. All right. I'm not going for a month. Warm it up for the boys. Yeah, so the, I think part of why it is quiet as we hustle into the 435 AM Eastern kickoff time

is because the storylines of this champion. ship really have been told. And we went through them in no small part with our good pal, Justin Ray on our preview show. And the key determinant in whether this is going to be chaotic or not is the weather. And it just seems like it's going to rain. And it's going to rain sort of each of the days. It doesn't seem like the forecast has any major wind in it.

the way that the Scottish Open had super major wind on Sunday. It doesn't seem like we're getting any of that. And so what we're seeing is like confirmatory validating evidence of our instincts, which is a green golf course. It's as green as it was back in 2014, and it doesn't look anything like the golf course

that Tiger Woods played back in 2006. And we have the players confirming that they think that low scores are possible. and we have the players to a man talking about how important it is to avoid the bunkers, right? Yeah. Well, this entire Open, starting Friday late, through whenever it's done, is going to be played in the rain. And these bunkers, I don't know, did these bunkers look harder than the standard, do these riveted things look harder than the standard open bunkers?

Or are we just running out of shit to talk about? They're always deep and hard to get out of. I think there has been a nuance that some of the players are sharing. Scotty Sheffler especially compared it to Royal St. George's, I think. In the sense that there's two principal differences, the rivets from the rake mean that the ball can sit down and be slightly depressed in the in the in the in the in the rake rivet and that they are um the the ball is less likely to find the middle of the bunker that they aren't uh um contoured in a manner for the ball to roll away

from the face or away from the rear if it enters from the rear so scotty was making the point that it's kind of better to miss worse to be at the rear of the bunker than the front the bunker because if you roll in from the top, it won't roll down to a middle spot. You'll be right up against the wall, the face of the wall. Yeah. And he was conveying some, I don't know what the word is, distress at that aspect of it, right? Yeah. Well, and we've seen some of the videos of guys trying to hit in and out of them. And it looks like you're going to have very few opportunities to go at the hole if you go in a bunker. So fine. All right. So that's going to to enter into a little more drama. It's going to create even more premium on shotmaking. It just

feels like with the lushness and the soft conditions, guys are going to be going right at the hole. I mean, they're just going to be flag hunting out there. It doesn't, with the wind down, and it looks like maybe we'll get up to 15 miles an hour, call it Saturday, but not more than that. With the wind down, there's just not a lot of defense on this course. And, yeah, I mean, look, It's the bunkers. It's the 81 bunkers and the internal out of bounds on the third hole and the 18th hole to the extent that that's intimidating. I mean, whatever. So is this going to be 20 under or better?

That's the question. Is this going to be like a score at the Amex? It would only be up in that order of magnitude if the conditions, if the fairways continue to have some role and that the guys, are emboldened to try and carry the bunkers and hit, you know, hit, hit driver. If it's, if the fairways end up softer, then that adds length to it. Now, I mean, it's the direction of the prevailing wind that will impact, you know, how long these holes play. And right now they're saying, you know,

the finishing stretch is going to be super dramatic potentially. If there's anybody within three shots of the leader in the finishing stretch, it's a par five, it's a part four that is. you know, that's played as one of the top five hardest holes in the golf course. It's the brand new part three and then it's another part five. So lots of room for variance in that end of round and end of championship configuration. Especially with 17, right? Yes, yes, because that will be, it seems like, most likely into the wind.

The two par fives on that backside are both well into the six, hundred yard range, but everybody's saying they don't play that way because of the wind. But it's a factor of like how soft is the golf course going to be in the fairways and, and like how much driver do you expect to see? Do you expect to see guys? I mean, Rory had that two iron. The two iron is the golf club that he hit from the fairway at the Scottish Open to win the golf tournament. But, you know, Tiger famously, you know, went around the golf course, a different version of the golf course with only. one driver. But if you're that intimidated by the bunkers, how do you move the ball away from

the bunkers with golf clubs, with the driver, I guess is my question to you. Yeah, I think Scotty and Rory and Romm are going to play a lot of drivers on this course. I think we're going to see a heck of a lot more than we did 10 years ago and, or nine years ago, whatever. And I, especially for Rory, when you look at the way these holes set up, it just favors. a draw and that is what he does better than anybody in the world. It's interesting, though, that the odds have evened out. And it looks like, at least as I've looked, Schaeffler and Rory are now co-favorites. I think our picks must have been you, me, and Jay Ray, who just fired up the betting action to get people on Sheffler. There's a lot of momentum for Scotty right now.

Well, I'm glad that you mentioned Rom because he, to me, is now suddenly the most sort of interesting and his odds are moving in the other direction he was like in the 11 to one range he's now at at 12 to 1 yeah and what i'm interested in in getting your perspective on with with john rom did we sleep on him at all as we were we were slightly dismissive of of his potential fortunes at this venue mainly because he's been sort of quiet since the masters that's the only reason Okay, well that's the only reason. I get it. It felt like he had a little bit of a master's hangover.

He sort of had to stay up through the night, the proverbial through the night, to go play Harbortown and play, you know, defend in Mexico, which again, I thought was a very gentlemanly thing to do to go back and defend there to keep that tournament relevant. But after that point, he needed some time off and he kind of played like it coming back in. And there hasn't been the same level of intensity. I'll forgive him for it. But let's see.

I don't know. Maybe the Alcaraz win, he says, all right, let's won to it. The Spaniards got to take all of the championships in the kingdom this summer. In the UK, seriously. I love that angle. And I wonder if I'm going to glass half a fillet with Rom. He needed the rest and he took the rest. He missed the cut at the travelers after the U.S.

Open. And if you're counting days, that now amounts to, like, you know, more than than three weeks of rest and time with family and signing a giant deal with Calloway Top Golf and getting that big equity piece. So part of the thing that I'm wondering aloud and I want your reaction to, I thought he was, he's always kind of forthcoming and effusive at press conferences. But I like the version of what we got from him at his press conference. he was hilariously, um, the, the most,

uh, direct in his support of Jay Monaghan. Yes. He was the only guy that really was affirmative in terms of, you know, welcoming Jay back and not having lost any trust in Jay and trusting in Jay and the, and the executive groups, uh,

stewardship, uh, of the tour, right? Yeah. And, and those comments put to bed the narrative for the week. I mean,

we've seen, Amon Lynch wrote, Monahan's not going to be around for a while, and I think all of us think more akin to what Zander and Speath said last week, which is unequivocally he's got trust to rebuild. Okay, he clearly does. But part of the reason I feel like Rory bailed out was he just didn't want to have that conversation again. And, Ron, listen, Rom's the alpha, man.

You can't look at the width of his shoulders and not, no, you know, when he directly, he does not mince words, he does not, you know, mealy-mouthed what he's trying to say. He's unafraid of it. And it just felt like when he sort of dogged at the press and said, not in a confrontational way, but as you said, just unbelievably candid and direct, it really put the story to bed. Not everybody else got asked about it. Rory was able to sort of excuse himself and it just eased us into the week.

Yeah, Rory's earned the right to not talk about it really ever again. chooses not to. If he doesn't want to talk about anything other than how he's playing and what he thinks about a golf course, really for the rest of his life, that's fine, right? He carried the water for the tour in a way that far surpassed anything that was reasonable. And he was the de facto commissioner, and he did galvan eye support. I mean, all of the things that we've talked about many, many, many times about him. If he wants to never talk about this again, then by golly have that that that's fine by me yeah rory you earned it um but with rom this version of him made me go back and do a little bit of research okay it started to build some confidence for me

in here we go um and it is his fortunes at this thing and there are two particular attributes that he possesses now he he does have some some high finishes um on on on lynx golf courses and and you know, in the Open Championship. But the two things that I particularly found, you know, us to perhaps be missing in our assessment of him, he has no problem putting on slower surfaces. He ranks very well in strokes gain. If you, you know, cut it and slice it down into, you know, green speeds.

He's absolutely up there on green speeds that seem to be measuring out akin to what we're anticipating with the slower green speeds that they're saying, they're reporting at Hoylake. And the other thing with Rom is that he compares extremely favorably long iron wise.

You know, for the kinds of shots that we're imagining, if he chooses to play a strategic game and not try and bomb in a manner that pulls the bunkers into play or pulls the out of bounds, we don't really need to harp.

on because it really only matters on two holes. But his strength with the long irons in hand, again, measures out extremely well. I went back and, you know, made some investment in John Ron this week. I'm here to announce it, Nate, Doug. Well, I am not surprised based on the way you're talking about it. I mean, look, if we chart his shots gained over the last three months, he's down almost a full shot from when he was just firing on all cylinders around

Riviera really I mean I just I'll never forget watching him bound up those steps up the hill into player dining with his family couldn't have been brighter and happy you could just see this guy was going to win the golf tournament at that point is like sort of moving average for shots game was north of three

it was almost 3.2 he's down at this point to 2.2.25. So I don't, I just don't take a whole lot away from that other than he had a really flaming hot stretch of golf. And, you know, it felt like that was somewhat inspired by Scotty and Rory having such a good sort of period of time. He wins the masters. And I just don't put a whole lot into that decline. But it is relative to, you know, how Schaeffler's trending, how Rory's trending, even how guys like Avland, Hatton, and the way that they're measuring Cam Smith, it is trending in the opposite direction relative to where they are at this moment in time. So I am happy for you that you've put money on ROM.

You do this every single major where at the last second, you sphincter up and go, wait a minute, I didn't put any money on the guy we're not talking about who's really good. And I understand why you're doing that. He will be bucking the trend relative to other players if he does it. That said, who is the one guy in the world who, when he focuses in, seems to be able to get it done more so than again, any of the other guys at the top of this field other than maybe Brooks Kepka. I mean, I think our criticism of Scottie is, yeah, his statistics are amazing. Why isn't he winning more tournaments? Well, it's because the putter just has not been good enough. Our criticism of Rory's been, yeah, he's hitting it great. He just like, he didn't close the U.S. Open. All of us know, Rory should have closed that damn thing. Wyndham Clark should not have won the U.S. Open. I mean, not that he didn't. deserve. He played fine, but he didn't play so well that Rory McElroy should have won the U.S. Open. Okay. So now you step back and say, John Rom, definitely being in the category there, he closed the Masters. Can he now, after, after this lull, and relative decline, still peak, peak, performer who is in the upper echelon of golf. But can he go head to head with these guys and

deliver some money for you, House? Yeah. And to be clear, um, You know, I only play outright, outright winning in a little bit. My biggest wagers on ROM are top 10 and top 20. You can check those odds on Fandul right now. And I also played him in some head-to-heads just as a way of diluting the exposure. I played him in head-to-heads against both Rory and Scotty, because I have plenty of exposure to both Rory and Scotty across the board. So I wanted a little bit of ROM.

And ROM's plus odds against both those guides, which, you know, you don't get that opportunity very often. So I was kind of fine with playing it that way. Do you have any concern now having seen some of the pairings? Are you worried about Brooks having to play with Cantlay and the pace? Are you, is there anybody else that maybe got a positive group draw for you? I don't invest a ton into it. I think it's an absolutely magnificent sense of humor.

that the RNA has shown us here. And maybe this is their way of trying to light a fire under Cantlay. I don't think it has anything to do necessarily. I think Brooks can be, you know, unperturbed if he's able to sort of prepare himself. And I think it's one of the lessons that he learned, you know, he shared with us in his bit on full swing about playing, you know, major golf and how, you know, some of the psychological stuff,

he clearly was bothered by the pace of play of J.B. Holmes, the Open Championship, you know, four years ago. And he clearly was affected by the mind games that Phil Mickelson, the slow role that Phil Mickelson put on him. But I think he, Brooks has said, those are learning experiences for me. I intend to be, you know, an Uber champion. And so what I do is I, I, I, I, file that stuff away, I process it. I do love it for the purposes of Kepka, but I don't think, you know, the only, what I'm more interested in is whether or not there are advantages to one side of the draw versus the other timing wise. It does seem like as far as the weather goes, the guys that are going early late might have a tiny bit of an advantage, just in terms of

some weather changing over the course of Thursday into Thursday afternoon and overnight into early part of Friday. So if you're off the first half of Thursday and then you're able to go out the latter part of the day on Friday, it seems the weather might have a little bit of an advantage. So that might favor Scotty, Fleetwood, Cam Smith, Zander, Ricky, Lowry, those kinds of guys. yes exactly guys that we were kind of already on anyhow and then by contra distinction the guys that get disadvantaged if you subscribe to that early late wave concept rory and romercom hat and phil mccleson who you think is going to miss the cut i'll say this to you

house i really love this morocawa homa hat and pairing listening to morikawa talk about it, he was like giddy. He'd said he'd been at lunch with his caddy talking about how excited he was to not just play with Max, who obviously they've got the Cal connection, but he said he really enjoys playing with Terrell Hatton because even for the attitude, his signal was Hatton plays fast and Hatton actually respects the guys that he's playing with. So that group is going to move at the pace that they all like to play, which, you know, they're literally going to be behind Rory, Ram and Rose. So those aren't exactly slow players either. So you could see on that side of the draw it moving well. I just, Morikawa's odds are really tasty house. And one of those three guys is

going to make some noise this week, I think. Well, Hatton would be the low-hanging fruit in terms of that because of his very accomplished, you know, Lynx Golf, European Golf, you know, his Dunhill record is outstanding. And, you know, he's built up a nice body of work. But we went through this with Justin Ray. I'm on Morikawa, and I have like a lot of exposure to him. It is, you know, in that category of like 28 to 1. Yeah.

If he's in that neighborhood, you have to have something on him because the ball striking is always so good. And if you take the performance in Detroit and say that that's indicative. of that's reflective of him turning a corner, right? I completely agree. And if we now think these greens are going to be soft and it's going to be a little wet and boy, that's reminiscent of tournaments that Morikawa has won before because he can stick the ball next to the hole.

His putter becomes less of an Achilles heel. And, you know, again, I think very quietly, Justin Ray loudly made the case that Morikawa quietly has rounded into form here in the last month, and we weren't paying great attention. And it looks like the odds makers, at least the betters are not, are not giving them the same credit that you otherwise should. I mean, this is a defending champion.

This is one of the best ball strikers, period, on tour, and Cantlay's got much, much better, you know, lower odds than more. Yeah. And, you know, I'm looking at some of the prop stuff, you know, it's a par 71. What head to heads can we get on Fan Duel House? Yeah, well, he is a decent play.

We'll check some of those out here in a moment. But I like him, you know, on a par 71, shooting one under par. If he shoots one under par in round one, that's available right now at even odds. You have to pay significant juice for him to shoot par or worse. Now, that could be a function of what we're talking about in terms of this weather thing,

but it doesn't feel very pronounced the weather discrepancy. And again, all of us can change in a matter of like six-hour increments. So it could be really bad by the time he gets out there. But, you know, for now, I'm kind of satisfied with, you know,

a little bit of speculation on things that, that portend well of Colin Warcow. I mean, the matchups that you can find for him are, um, Dustin Johnson. He is a small favorite over DJ. He's minus 120,

uh, over DJ. Um, that, and that is both for the first round and for the tournament, uh, I believe. Um,

I think you can get him, uh, well, all of these matchups. Okay. So the matchups that, that, that you can find on Fandul right the second look like they're all,

um, against Dustin Johnson in a variety of ways. But, you know, small favorite over DJ, which feels fine to me. Yeah. Yeah, to me too. Well, Nate, as is our way here on Fairway Rowland, we like to have a little bit of combination action. We got a couple parlayes that I pulled together here for a good friends at Fandul. And speaking of Colomorakawa, now sometimes it's better to just keep things simple.

So one of the things that I did was a very basic. three leg make the cut parlay. I'm just looking for a plus odds payout on this because you have to really, you know, put five or six guys together if you're looking for a bigger payout. And you can play it that way. It's fun. I've done it many, many, many times on this podcast and also in real life. But the one that I have this week, it's pretty modest.

It's a plus 150 payout. You have pair up Kamorakawa, who's minus 340 to make the cut, along. alongside Xander, who has a great track record, both it majors in general. He's only missed two cuts in like the last 20-some majors, but also very good at the Open Championship in terms of just basically the proposition of making the cut. And then I took, I wanted somebody that was going to help me odds-wise. And I went down the board. I have New Zealand's own Ryan Fox contributing to this three-legged parlay. Very nice performance at the Scottish Open, top 20, I believe. And then I love the fact that he is the defending champion of the Alfred Dunhill Lynx challenge from the fall on the DP World Tour. Quietly, Ryan Fox, a strong links player. So if you combine those three for a three-way make-the-cut parlay,

that payout is plus 150. Do you endorse this, Nate? I mean, it's fine if you don't. If you want to yell at me, I'm willing to listen. No, you're really just asking, am I all in on Ryan Fox making the cut this week? And I think what we explored is really look through these. There is some chum in the water in this tournament this week. So I really expect that Ryan Fox is going to make the cut given there are a lot of pretenders in the field this week.

well I am taking a similar kind of soft waffling approach to my finishing position parley this is a three-leger and I just went as chalk as I could get and as I could stomach we're only coming up with three to one odds on this one because I went so chalk on it I have scotty finishing in the in the top 10 I have Rory finishing in the top 20, and I have Tommy Fleetwood, who has enormous experience at this venue, top 30. That's the way I played it, Nate, Doug. Sheffler top 10, Rory top 20, Fleetwood top 30. That payout is over three to one odds. It's plus 304. That feels like a nice way to, you know, nice middle of the summer kind of bankroll edition. Do you get what I'm feeling here? Who do you think you're going to be sweating in that threesome? Maybe. Maybe. And I, you know, have all of my exposure to this guy already. Scotty.

Yeah. Scotty is the one that I feel least confident about. Yeah. Oh, you agree with that. I do. I think Tommy Fleetwood is going to have no problem back during your top 30. He's wearing cardigans. He's flushing the ball.

He's playing, you know, he's playing with. all strikers, it's going to be great. I think Rory has a top 20 in him this week. There's no doubt he's in form. And I think it's just, is Scotty going to suddenly in a major break the streak and then have us all talking about, hey, why isn't he closing even though he won the players? Yeah. And well, not only that, but he's just collecting top fives in the other majors. Now, he didn't finish the top five with the Masters, but he did. I'm just, it's just, it's just, it'll be a bullshit, you know, but it's going to be something for us to talk about.

But isn't it funny that if the guy finishes lower than 12th, we're going to make it like it's a problem? And I mean, the big reveal of this week as it relates to Scotty Schaeffler is how close the run that he's been on

in terms of his strokes gain is putting him in Tiger territory. Yeah. He's legit within, you know, a couple of decimal points of Tiger in a bunch of those different categories. It's a really amazing run. You talked about it

on the show on Sunday with Jay Ray. Literally unprecedented except for the precedent of Tiger Woods, right? Well, and it's unprecedented that someone's in. No one has ever struck the ball this well and putted this poorly.

It's like if you mash up Tiger and me and put him in a golfer. That's Scotty right now. So he's going to He's going to break out of this. As I alluded to, I think he's had some things going on in the background that he is at the sort of edge of the forest of which on this way out not going in. And I think you're going to be just fine with Scotty this week. Does it change the way you think about, does it change the way you think about the winner?

Is Scotty still your pick? Or did you waffle and go back to rom? Oh, I wouldn't say that I waffled. I mean, I have exposure in a lot of different areas. I have, you know, 25 bucks on Min Woo Lee. Like, you know, I get, I get exotic out there a little bit, Nate Dog, but I mean, you know, I, my, my, my, my view on who will win remains Scotty Sheffler. I wanted to make sure that I had, I, I, I have some money on, on Colmore Cow to win this golf tournament. You should.

I have, you know, I added in. I had a small bet on, on Cam Smith to defend. I mean, you know, the odds aren't, aren't. great, but, you know, the story is, is decent. So, you know, this is not a Cam Smith kind of golf course. That is also one of the, um, things that can emerge from the research and the numbers. This is not his style. You know, he, he's better when he can hit the ball anywhere. Um, and then, and then kind of recover. Um, that's his strong suit. But I want to make sure I had a tiny bit of exposure to the defending champion, especially off of his recent live victory. I mean,

you know, you got to take that very seriously, Nate Dogg. But speaking of taking things seriously, we shall be convened as soon as the claret jug is in the hands of perhaps our new open champion, or maybe it'll be a repeat in, and in Cam Smith's hands, the Nate Dog and I will be together Sunday. The show probably up a little bit earlier because, you know, the tournament should be over midday. And, you know, of course, our good friends of FanDuel TV,

we will be on TV giving the recap. That should be up Monday morning. But my birdie buddies, my par saving pals, this is wonderful for us here in the States. The Open Championship is the best. Wake up, have a little coffee, watch the guys out there moving around this thing in their long clothes, and then put your shorts on and go grab a wonderful afternoon round.

And if you need an E9 at the end of it, Play 27. It's light out till 8.30, 8.45 at night here in the States. It's a great time to be a lover of the game of golf. That's it, my birdie buddies, my par-saving pals, my eagle enthusiasts. Our thanks, as always, to our producer, Eduardo Ocampo, and to the Nate Dog. We will see you on Sunday. In the meantime, get a peg in the ground. Please get them straight up there.