Fairway Rollin' - Mastering Your Bets With Justin Ray and Joel Beall | Fairway Rollin’

Episode Date: April 10, 2019

Joe House is joined by 15th Club’s Justin Ray to crunch the numbers on what history has told us about past Masters winners, list the most important categories for success at Augusta, and offers his winning pick (3:35). Then Golf Digest’s Joel Beall stops by to offer some juicy Masters prop bets (56:35) before Harry Gagnon joins to offer his final pick of the week (72:15). Host: Joe House Guests: Justin Ray, Joel Beall, Harry Gagnon Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

this golf podcast, unlike any other. It is Master's Week. And this tradition is called Fairway Road. It is the new golf podcast on the Ringer podcast network. I am your starter, Joe House. This podcast is brought to us by our good friends at Callaway Golf, who have taken the triple track golf. ball invented for 2019,

alignment aids taken to a brand new level, and Phil Mickelson won the 2019 AT&T, Pebble Beach program with the ChromeSoft X triple track golf ball. You people ask, how do we get these? Callow, I answer the Chrome Soft X golf balls with triple track technology, hitting stores on April of 19, 2019. But we have important matters on hand,

my birdie buddies, my par saving pals. This is the Wednesday before the Thursday that kicks off the master's tournament. And we are here to help you navigate the choppy waters of your master's pools, your master's Calcutta, your master's DFS lineup,

your master's betting card, your master's allocation of capital we have on board today. Justin Ray from the 15th club. He is an incredible data and analytics golf guru we have from Gulf Digest. Joel Beale, who's going to walk us through some delicious master's props. And of course, our beloved, our own Harry Gaill, from Against All odds, the degenerate trifecta. Harry and I are going to give out our final. Epic Flash picks up the week

and try and give out a couple winners. The first tea is open. Let's go over there and see if Justin Ray will hit off with us. Oh, please. Now on the tea, Justin Ray. All right, my birdie buddies, my par saving pals, my eagle enthusiast.

It is the day before the masters. which means it is numbers crunching time. It is nut crunching time. It is put up or shut up time for your master's pools, your Masters Calcutta, your DFS lineups, your gambling cards, your allocation of capital and mine. So we need, my friends, a true data and analytics heavyweight to help us with this heavy lift.

Our guest today fits that bill. He spent seven years as a sports researcher at ESPN covering a whole variety of sports, including during his tenure, the assignment is chief researcher for the Scott Van Pelt radio show, which means he survived Ryan Rassillo's giant pythons. More recently, this gentleman spent five years at the Golf Channel, spearheading their research and analytics that made all of those guys on Golf Central and live from look smart. If you want to know who to blame for Brandl Chambly coming out with all of that data, all of those analytics and making everybody else look dumb, this dude is to blame.

He is the new director of content at the golf analytics and player performance firm, the 15th club. Justin Ray, welcome to the show. That's a hell of an introduction. And don't put that weight on being responsible for everything Brantle said. I love the guy, but I mean, no one hears that person. Well, and look, I meant it as a compliment more than anything because Brandel was kind of been an early adopter of the data and analytics driven approach to performance. And, you know, I've always been impressed by his faculty with and facility with.

and facility with the history of, you know, different aspects of the game. And he has that appetite. Let's start with that. Your experience at the Golf Channel, how did you find your way there and kind of build out that, that analytics set for those folks? Yeah. So you mentioned I was at the SPN for 70 years. I got a job in the research department there right out of school.

They worked on some golf in addition to hot enough to be on that. I was the Scott Van Pelt show researcher for a couple of years, and I don't know how anyone could possibly have more fun in a professional setting than I did. Go to work every day, talk about sports and laugh your ass off. I mean, it was amazing. But I got to do a lot of golf there, and when Golf Channel wanted to kind of beef up

what their research department capabilities were, they reached out to me five-ish-year-year-old. And I was able to, you know, just continued what I was doing for all sports a year. SPAN but do it at a golf channel. And that afforded me the opportunity to work with people like Brando, like Brando, like David Duvall, like Frank Naubelow, all the guys you see on live from. Great crew.

Working with Randall is, it's a great experience. I mean, nobody is more prepared and works harder at what they do, takes their craft more seriously. And he's a hell of a guy to do good doing SWIFT too. So, you know, it's a great five years there, but this opportunity was during 15th club was pretty unprecedented, and I get to move back to Austin, Texas. I believe Orlando, Florida. So that's always a big plus. You can head home and go to a place like Austin. Yeah, you're originally from Texas, right?

I am. I'm originally from Houston, and then I went to Austin in 2011 when ESPN launched Longhorn Network. So I was still able to, I was working in TV there, and then in the summer, there's know college sports, obviously, so I was able to work with, like, U.S. Open Open Championship and that stuff. But in 2011, when I was like 25, 26 years old, they were like, do you want to promotion and do want to get out of the snow, move to Austin? Yep, going to do that. So that's how I got that's how I got to Austin, Texas, and then eventually went to golf show. So that was a very long-winded way of explaining that, but that's kind of how I, I kind of saw there was a niche and needed ESPN in the research department to specialize in golf. I mean, I was into everything.

I'm a human NBA league class junkie. I'm a huge Houston Astros fan. I'm watching college football NFL game. I'm just all across the board sports nut, but I love golf too, and I've been able to kind of make a career out of it. Yeah, well, your love of golf has been evident, and I was introduced to you by way of your Twitter feed, which was indispensable during the Shackhouse podcast run

when I get together with Jeff Shackleford, and we would go back and forth around, you know, various events and who we liked each week, I would always consult, you know, where you were that week in terms of, you know, your own data set, the analytics that you were looking at and you were interested in. Now, I want to talk very briefly about the 15th club before we turn our heads to the heavy lifting of today. It's a very recent move. You just jumped over to the 15th club and, like, March, right? Yeah, for less than two months.

Last show of Golf Channel was very beginning of March before the Arna Palmer Education. And what is the 15th Club? What is it all about? I know its reputation is helping the European team with the Ryder Cup. I'm willing to hold my nose. That was a big one.

Yeah. Yeah. I'm willing to hold my nose because you're going to help us pick the Masters winner here today. So we can, I don't mind that. that reputation of the 15th club. But what is the 15th club all about? One, I wasn't there.

I wasn't working there yet when they helped Europe. Fair point. Fair point. Fair point. So 15th club is we're a data analytics company. It started in the realm of soccer, in European soccer, the 21st club, 20 clubs in the Premier League.

If that's incorrect, please don't hammer it down on me soccer fans, because it's not my thing, but there's a company called the 21st Club that does a similar type of thing, consulting with soccer teams across Europe, providing analytics. And then they, about five years or so, Dove headfirst into the golf side of things. And now we've got a stable of players that we provide analysis and, like, course set up information and advise them on how to plan their schedules that can succeed.

And players like, like, Lori McElroy is the biggest name, that I'm privileged to say isn't our stable players that we work with. And there's a whole bunch of other guys too. When they brought me on, you know, they had an idea of expanding their reaching media

and they have a couple of agreements with like Sky Sports, which is basically ESPN in the UK, the European tour, and we've got a bunch more on the horizon and I wish I could say, but I can't yet because the ink's not dry yet. Ah.

Basically we and we provide content for like Sky Sports. Like I was on, excited. And Austin at Del Mash Play a couple weeks back, providing them with analysis, graphics, notes, information, all the good stuff that is synonymous with what I do on Twitter, but we do it in a TV format.

So we're expanding our reach there. We do the player consultancy side. We got our hands on a lot of different stuff, and it's really exciting because it's, you know, I've only worked for, like, giant monolithic media companies. I only work with Disney and Comcast. Yeah. Something's new and kind of awesome.

agile and you can be part of something, not at the very beginning, obviously, because they've established themselves and done some really great things before I got here, but the ability to kind of go in lost stuff with them is they turn a corner and grow into something, I think it's going to be great. It was a really appealing move for me, so I'm fired up to be part of it, and we've got a lot of big stuff on the horizon, and I wish I could shout everything that I know that we're doing, but I got to kind of keep it, I got to keep a low key for now, but guarantee you're going to see our name bigger and more prominent and more places here in the next few months. All in good time. And all I would do is recommend to all our par saving pals out there.

If you want to get a taste, if you want the flavor, sign up for the newsletter is published at least three times a week. Is it published more than three times a week? Well, this week for the masters we're doing. So we have something every Monday, Sunday night, Monday morning, the 10 best notes to know from that week in golf and coming up in the next week's tournament. We're going to do that for every single night during the master's week. There's going to be one after every round instead of just one for the week. Yeah. That's great. We're going to go on overdrive this week. We had a big, I had a big preview article where I went through my master's strokes game database that goes back through every round throughout the history of the masters. And we put that article up on Monday.

Tuesday we put up a more of like a comprehensive master's preview. And then today, Wednesday, we've got a roundtable discussion of me and a couple of the other analysts talking about. what goes into making a master's winner, and we all make our picks. And, you know, you've got two guys who, I mean, I know my stuff, these other two guys are, they're phenomenal at what they do.

And, you know, I'll take a back seat to them when it comes to hardcore player in office and data and stuff. So be sure to check that out, 15thblob.com. Yeah, that's right. And, right, all three of those newsletters available there. And you can track Justin on his Twitter feed, or you can just listen to this.

podcast like you're doing right now and get a bunch of these nuggets because we are going to turn our attention here and see if we can't give some good guidance to everybody on this Wednesday as they try and sit down and map out their game plan, their scoring cards and perhaps, you know, spread out a couple dollars on a couple names out there. So just to start with, I want to kind of have a couple benchmarks. So in the first place, the beauty of the masters is, you know, the year over year playing the same venue with, you know, very little change other than the sort of the tiger proofing effect that came in after, you know, the first half dozen of his great performances there from the late

90s into the mid 2000. And then occasional like, you know, one or two whole. holes that it seems like the trend has been lengthening. Like this year, we know the fifth hole has 50 yards added to it. But for the purposes of evaluating year over year, success, wait, which hold did you say? No, oh, you mentioned five. Now that's longer. It's an absolutely monster now.

Oh, I mean, I expect, you know, the stroke average for that's going to be like 4.7 or something would be my guess. I mean, it's going to... Like, you're Larry Meiser and, you know, Marco Miser. there is I fear for their scores on those holes. DJ and Gary Woodland will be okay, but the

you might be in the world, it's going to be a tough notice from that hole. Well, that helps with a starting point here, because there's a whole bunch of folks in the Masters field we could just eliminate immediately eliminate.

We could just cross them off the list. There are, I think the field this year is 86 or 87, and you know, nearly half of those folks you can just cross off because they fit sort of, you know, their honor, their honorariums, you know, they're, they're playing because of past achievements. And it is part of the class of Augusta to continue to permit that. They reward amateurs who play in a whole variety of different events that have achieved some acclaimed.

But that means that the field that we're looking at, it helps us focus. a little bit. So in terms of benchmarks for winners at the Masters, I want to start with what does history tell us? Well, when you look at world ranking, since 1986, the average master's winners ranked about 15.5. And across the four majors, that's by far the best ranking, the lowest number. The other three majors, between 24 and 37 is the average world ranking since they started the World Ranking 86. Seven straight Masters champions have been ranked inside the top 25. So a lot of,

some of that has to do with the fact that it's a smaller field and the fact that you mentioned that, you know, there's 87 players in the field this week. You've got, you know, a dozen or so past champions who, like you said,

are there on basically an honorary basis, which is, which is great, but then, you know, that's your field down to 75 in the room. And then you've got, you know,

the Latin American Amateur champion, and U.S. Amateur champion, U.S. Amateur champion, and like, Victor Hovel and the U.S. Amateur champ is going to be a really good player.

He's really good at a little Oklahoma but he's a 21-year-old amateur. The likelihood of him contending is really, really slim. So you get to take off those numbers of people and you get less randomness in terms of who can win because it yields a higher-ranked player winning simply because of not, really. There's almost no way that it wouldn't happen that way.

The other thing, too, is that, you know, experience really pays at the Masters. There's only been one player making their debut in the last 80 years that's won the tournament. now is fuzzy Zeller in 1979. So it's a venue where because you go there year after year, like you said, it's the only major championship venue

where you see the same, it's the same course year after year. Take the PGA championship in comparison. You know, Bell Reeve and Best Page are two, there's almost no similarities between those two courses, except for, you know, a couple of really long part fives. I mean, you don't have that problem with the master's.

You can take experience year and year and knowing the nuances and contours of the green, and where to miss in fairways and where to we put short, you know, stuff like that's pretty important. The other thing I want, you know, success form for a player's season going in is pretty important. Since 2000, about 60% of master's winners had already won that season on the PGA or European tour. So if you've got a player like, you're a defending champion this year, Patrick Lee, putted the

eyes out of it last year, chip beautifully, ball striking was above average. he just really hasn't struck the ball well this year. It doesn't have a lot of high finishes. He hasn't won since Masters, obviously. You've got to take that into consideration when you're looking for a winner. So he's someone I would kind of steer away from. But if you're just looking at things like world ranking, the average age of a master's winner ranges between 31 and 32,

depending on no matter how far you go about 10 years, 20 years, 40 years, it's about the same range. So you're looking at the typical world ranking and age and experience level of some of the best. spoilers of the world. Yeah. So with that starting point, we've basically taken a field of 87 and whittled it down to about 20, between 20 and 25 legit candidates to win this thing. Now, one aspect of this particular Masters that's so intriguing is that it feels like in that 20 to 25, range of eligible players to win, it really could be any one of those 20 to 25 because all of the

best players in the game are playing pretty good right now. The only guy that we have, you know, a real question about is Jordan Speath, but he has an unprecedented record at Augusta. His experience so far at Augusta rivals that of Tiger Woods and Jack Neck. Nicholas, right? He has the single greatest start to a master's career in the history of the tournament. Through 20 rounds of his master's career, he has more strokes game than anybody in history. He's first and strokes game for round in master's history. Ben Hogan is second and Togdenworth's third.

So that's your guy with your question mark among these 30 best players in the world. If you can look at the case that almost any of those guys can win, and then the guy you have a question about with third form, you look at and you're like, He's the best performer literally in the history of the master's so far. So, yeah, what Jordan, now, I think first 20 rounds. Jeff and Tiger both played in the animators and Jordan did. So it's a little bit skewed in that sense that they played before they turned professional. But Jordan really didn't have a chance to play in an animator, but he's one of the majority of

19. And I feel like it kind of balances itself out there. So, yeah, like you said, I mean, I can go through. I've got a list of all these different players and reasons why they could win, why I liked it, and I just kept going, like when I was preparing for the master this week. There's so many guys who win, and that's what makes this year so intriguing. Yeah, this is the challenge for you and I, and we're going to try and do our best for all the faithful listeners of the show to give out, we're going to try and whittle it down from 22 or 23 or 24.

We'll try and give out four or five different names, and there'll be different sort of like categories, is like a couple guys I'm going to, I feel strongly about that I'm going to play as top 20 picks and some guys I'm going to definitely play in a top 10 capacity. And then I have a handful of folks that I have in mind as potential winners. You mentioned strokes gained. I want to talk to you. So we've talked about kind of the historical antecedent, what you want out of, you know, a player's profile in terms of their world ranking and their maturity.

and their experience at Augusta. Let's talk a little bit about performance measures. Based on your work, what have you observed in terms of the most important performance measures coming into Augusta? So we've got shot-linked site data giving you strokes going to National for four years. So it's not conclusions and answer some of those questions. And just for the purposes of folks that may not, have done any kind of deep dive into strokes gained or what shot link is.

Shotlink, I know what I think. It's a camera, essentially. It's human beings on holes capturing data, including some camera tracking of actual, you know, where players are hitting from and the results of their strokes. Is that basically right? Correct. Yeah. And what it basically tells you is that every shot that,

anyone hits during a tournament on the golf course is measured specifically. So, you know, a player has a put from 8 feet, 9 inches away, or 14 feet, 7 inches away, whatever that might be. They have specific distances of all the shots. So that that way you can come up with and categorize, even baseball has a lot of statistics. Like golf, there's like no limit to the amount of ways that can chop up the information. Like, I do it for a living and I still stumble over stuff every day that I hadn't found out before. So they've got tons of information. What's most important, though find the stuff that matters the most and how does it relate the most to listeners to make your pick and that's the plan here. Yeah, exactly. So let's kind of like rank the, you know,

three or four or five different categories that are most important for success at Augusta National. And we'll work backwards. You know, these are all important. We've set aside the unimportant ones. Here are the four or five most important ones, starting with kind of of the least important to the very most important, but with the idea that they're all important, what we're going to talk about next. So what's kind of a starting point here? All right.

So from the bottom, I'd say like performance off the team is not necessarily the most significant thing to look at when you want to pick a master's winner. You know, distance is going to put players obviously in a more advantageous position, especially this week.

They've got a lot of rain at Augustin National that lengthens out the golf course. Rory McElroy fans, very excited. to see rain because, as we know, these one major championships, Keel Island, congressional, his open championship, Valhalla, it was raining the whole time. So distance is good. It helps you out, but it's not necessarily the most important thing in the world.

And driving accuracy is really not significant at all, Augusta National. Year after year, this course ranks is one of the least penalizing places in golf in this fairways. And when you think about it, that's probably a good reason why so Mickelson's had a ton of success there Tigers had a ton of success there you can miss wildly off the team and I know year after year and you'll see this watch in the Masters week

you can miss so badly at Augusta that you're in a good spot because you're in another fairway and you can just carry your approach shot over trees or something like that that's one of the reasons why actually isn't very important but I do think that if the course is wet and it's going to be the green's going to be receptive obviously

which is good for scoring but I think it puts guys who are shorter players like Molinar and like Matt Coocher, it puts them at a disadvantage. You know, they're going to need to hit more longer iron shots than your, you know, guys like Justin Thomas or Dustin Johnson or Rory McElroy. So I'd rank that. The performance off the T, those significant, it's the least of the four or five that we're going to mention here. Great.

All right. Next. Hit me. Course history. Experience, like I said, it really pays off at Augusta National. Like we were talking about, the only major venue, obviously we go to every single year. you can draw upon past performance a little bit more than others you can see correlations year after year and it gives you a pretty good idea of who's going to be successful um and seemingly

every year if you think about it somebody like fred couples earnhard langer contend you know somebody who's you have no reason to expect anything from them coming out coming into the week course knowledge that wisdom garnered through decades of performing on this golf course we've seen didn't larry maize make the cut the past couple years he's larry mys has made two of the last four cuts, which is incredible. I have a crazy Larry Meyer's step. So I didn't think I'd say that sentence out loud to another human being. Larry Weiss made the cut two of the last four years,

despite the fact that in that span, he's lost 42 shots to the field, Tita Green. It's an incomprehensible amount of struggles, Tita Green, but he's chipped and putted so ridiculously. He's made the cut twice in that span. So, yeah, the old guys can. You hit a few good shots, you make some putts. You know, Burner-Langer was tied for third going into the final round in 2016.

Like, you know, it was, you know, if no one expected him to get to the finish line, and you ended up finishing, I think he shot 79 on Sunday. But, you know, guys like that, we'll see somebody pop up every year, every other year, who basically is completely going off of experience and it's valued that much at Augustin National. Okay, so we have performance off the T, course history. What's next? This seems obvious, but you've got to perform on the part. five. The average winner since

2000 of Augusta has been about eight and a half shots under par for the week on the par five. And since Tiger won back in 1997, those two back nine par five, 13 and 15, have been the most telling in terms of strokes gained by winners compared to the field. They're most vital coming down the stretch

if you're going to win the championship. So you've got to take advantage of those par five, especially if the greens are receptive and scoring is going to be, I think there's you know, we'll probably see a 13, 14-100 par, something around that range when this week, if the course remains, you know, you've got to take advantage of the par five.

All of those pale in comparison, they're important, they're not nearly as important as what I think is the most significant stat going into the Masters, and that's Strokes-Gained approach. That's players and their iron play. So the Strokes-game data has been there for four years.

The Strokes-Game approach leaders, masters, those four years, have finished first, first, second, and third. I mean, it is by far the most telling thing. I mean, I know that people think that, you know, when Jordan's beat won the Masters in 2015, yeah, he putted brilliantly. He was also by far the best iron player in the field that week.

In 2015, Dustin Johnson led the field in strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained putting, and he finished nine shots behind Jordan's beat. So for the purposes of our folks that might not be devotees, of the data and analytics approach, speaking of approach. What does strokes gained approach refer to? What particular skill set are we describing to folks? You're talking about your shots going into green.

So basically your 6, 7, 8, 9 islands, and how close you get them to the pen from the fairway or the rough? We've always heard for years. Second shot golf course is the best of national, right? Yes. That's the exact exemplification of it. that's what it means it means you they they've they've hit the ball either in the fairway or not in the fairway and we've established that you can hit the ball maybe not in the fairway and still get away with it but the crucial skill the most critical skill that a player who's going to be successful at augustin national must possess is that approach and the strokes gained approach metric measures a player versus everybody else in the field over the course of the event so when we say first, first, second, and third. Am I getting this right, Justin?

We're talking about how that player performed relative to the field in that particular skill set. In 2015, Georgia player in the field, he won the tournament. 2016, Danny Willett was the best iron player in the field, won the tournament. 2017, Justin Rose was second in the field of Schiltskin approach, i.e., iron play, lost in a playoff. And then last year, again, it was Jordan Spee. finished third and nearly a crazy Sunday,

nearly getting into a playoff against Patrick Green. Yeah, he was threatening the course record. Yeah. So, okay, so we've established that criteria as kind of the key elements of, you know, trying to separate, you know, among 20-some guys, you know, trying to pick a handful that we could agree on, perhaps, as contenders for the title here.

I sent you a few names in a few different categories because organizationally, I like the idea of looking at some folks that are kind of in the 20 range in the official world golf rankings and that their odds, their betting odds to win the tournament or kind of make them longer shots.

So the folks that I sent to you were names like Mark Leishman and Sergio Garcia and Patrick Cantlay. Is there anything about those three guys that kind of jumps off the page at you and makes you interested in them as potential contenders this week? Definitely Cantlay.

I thought it's 60 to 1. Really good iron player. He's top 20 on touring greens and regulation. He's 10th and strokes game total, which is scoring average on steroids. One thing I am a little wary of is that he's never broken 70 and six for rounds of Augusta.

He's getting more accustomed to the big stage. He's got top 10 in WGC events this season, one in China, one in Mexico. So Patrick Cantley is pretty interesting. And I could see him, I could see him contending. So Sergio is really interesting, too, to me. Most of the attention on Garcia this year has been for the stuff that wasn't golf related,

like his disagreement with Couture and Austin and him going insane in the bunker in Saudi Arabia. Right. It's overshod the fact that he's actually played some really good golf. He's got five top tens and nine starts this year. He's eighth on tour this season, the first game approach, that number I talked about. You know, he had the really bad hole last year out of the gays,

and he's kind of derailed as his master's sense. But, you know, he's playing some pretty good golf, and there's some value there in that pick. I have one suit that's a little bit lower than your 50 to 1, 60 to 1, you were talking about way off the board. The guy who won last week in San Antonio, of Corey Connors. Wow.

Yeah, so he, this is the toughest course on tour, statistically, to get it closed from 125 to 200 yards. And that's where Conners is absolutely the best at. He's third on tour in greens and regulation, seventh and strokes game approach. He had missed a bunch of cuts before he won in San Antonio, so he's not a guy that was running into one's radar. He's got a little bit deeper.

His iron point numbers are outstanding. This is a world-class ball striker. And I think there's value in the fact because he played here before in 2015. I believe he was an amateur then. So he's not, I don't think he's going to be as spooked. And while I can't believe I'm here, he's got a little bit of something to draw back on. So I saw him at $250 to one.

And, you know, he's probably not going to win. I won't say that. But he fits the profile in terms of ball striking characteristics of somebody who could contend this week. Well, you know what's wonderful. And I'm pulling up my numbers machine here right away. You know what? I'm in a hurry to see is his top 20 odds, because I'm sure that they are plus odds, right? You're going to get a good number for him to finish top 20.

And the other thing I like quite a bit about a player like that is I love to play this multiplayer. It's very dumb. Everybody knows how dumb this is. I love to assemble six or eight players together and do a parlay of all of them to make the cut. And I take four guys that are absolute favorites that have incredible track records, four or five guys that are, you know, are just flat out not going to miss the cut. It would be a real aberration for them to miss the cut.

But then to try and get the odds closer to my favor, I try and find some folks with kind of less experience or, you know, a reason for Vegas or the market makers to perhaps be asleep on them and try and build something where I can get myself into some health. the two to one odds on the whole parlay or three to one odds even. This Corey Conner's angle is delightful. He's exactly the kind of guy that I'm looking for from my make the cut parlay. I'll put it right on the back end of it. Now I'm scrolling down here on the top 20.

Let me see what kind of odds we can get for Corey Connors to finish in the top 20. I'm still scrolling, Justin. Boy, oh, boy, we're going far down here. Oh, boy, oh, boy, 6.1. I mean, he might be qualified to get into the field in San Antonio and then he won. I mean, he's got to be. what, $6,500 in daily fantasy, if you need somebody to round out your six.

I mean, you know, you can spend a little more on the big dog and you can save a little bit there because of the advanced numbers say that this is a guy who could have success this week. I love it, and he's plus 600 as a top 20. That's six to one odds for him to finish inside the top 20. This is a glorious nugget for everybody out there. Okay, so that's kind of our longer shot field.

Let's talk about some folks that are like kind of in the 20 to 30, 35 to 1 kind of range. And I'm talking about names like Bryson, DeCambeau, and Hadeke, and Coutcher, Matt Coocher, all of whom are kind of in a class of 30 to 1 or maybe a little bit higher. Yeah, so I really like Hadecimaziana this week. I think he's being totally overlooked. He's finally healthy. His wrist is back in shape.

He has four straight top 20s in the Masters. He's second this season on tour and Strope's game to press. approach. He's third in strokes gained T-degree. His ball striking is just absolutely fantastic. He's fourth in strokes can T-degree at the Masters the last four years. It's only McElroy Rose and Casey were better in that statistic.

He's going to put himself in position enough times. The only question is, can he make enough putts to contend? He's near the bottom of the tour. He's 180th this season in strokes game putting. But if he's going to put himself in position with his awesome iron play, many, many times. Just

can he get those putts to fall? I consider about Couture. I'm a little more. Go ahead. No, I was just going to make the observation that we know from Augusta, you don't have to be the best putter on tour to have success there. What you need is experience on the greens at Augusta. That's more important than being an objectively great putter, right?

We've seen that out of some of these winners in the past. Yeah, that's spot on. And Dedeke's, I mean, he played in the tournament of the Nandah for winning the Asian Pacific Amher, championship, I think twice. He's got a wealth of experience there at Augusta, and he's played great there the last few years. You know, I mean, a lot gets made of, you know, the pressure of trying to become the first major champion,

men's major champions in Japan. But Hadeki's got the game to do it, and I think it's only a matter of time before he breaks through in a major. I wouldn't be shocked if he did it this week. I'm there with you, and he's exactly the odds I like. I cut you off. You're going to tell us a concern about Coutcher. Go ahead.

Yeah, yeah. So with the rain they're getting this week, you know, Cocher isn't, he's not really short, but he's on the lower end of elite players in terms of distance. So I'm a little bit worried about him if the course is linked in by the rain. But his iron play this year has been awesome as well. So that's kind of a given take with Matt Cochre. I'm going to avoid him because of the wet weather, but you can certainly make a case for him with how well is iron. Islands have been. So one guy in this group that I really like, you didn't mention, is Zander Shawley. Yeah, interesting. Yeah, yeah, I think everyone needs to definitely keep an eye on him. Top 15 strokes gain approach. He's fourth in strokes gain total. Many of his metrics say that he's performed better than people may think. I also have been kicking this thought around. You know, no one is going to confuse Maui with Georgia.

But the elevated uneven lies that you get at Capulua, which is where Xander won early this year, he shot 62 in the final round, lit it up in one. I think you're going to, they're very similar to a lot of the arm shots you see the best of national with the balls above or beneath your feet.

So I think there might be a little bit of a correlation there. He's also a really aggressive player so I could see him with a handful of eagle putt opportunities this week. I think there's a lot of value there in Zander. We know Zander loves the big stage too, right? I mean, his victories, he's got a WGC under his belt already. He's got the tournament of champions under his belt, and he's got the Tour championship under his belt,

and he was, you know, on the stage. major's last year, right? He's played like seven majors, and he's finished in the top six and three of them. I mean, he's a guy kind of like Kepka that seems to rise to the occasion and play a little bit better than he does, you know, regularly in his big event. So I like Vanderilopis, I think he's a guy to keep an eye out. Bryceon is interesting to me. Bryson's interesting, you know, he, I thought this note was kind of interesting.

Two of the last three winners of the Dubai Desert Classic went on to win the Masters later that year. Danny Willett did it, and then Sergio did it. in 2017. Bryson blew the field away in that tournament this year. Bryson has been above average on approach shots this year, but not elite. He gains the lion's share of his strokes off the team. I'm a little, I kind of shy away from a little bit.

He's never had a top 10 in a major championship, which seems hard to believe because he seems like he's on the leaderboard every week, and he's up in the top 10 of the world now. But he's a guy with a limitless talent and played really well in the master's stamina. So if you're looking in that range, though, Hadeki and Lambert, you guys are really like. I love it. Okay, now let's start talking about some genuine contenders that fit both the public's eye and our own review and analytics here. I have, you know, John Rom and Justin Thomas and Tommy Fleetwood all available. It seems right around 20 to one.

And that feels like maybe a little bit of value for those guys in the pedigree that they bring to the table this week. What do you think? Yeah, definitely. Thomas is another guy whose iron play is super elite. He's fourth on tour and strokes can approach. Like I'm saying, that's the most reliable correlating stat going into the Masters. He leaves the Tor and Bertie average, makes a zillion of them. My only question for him is, can he avoid the big numbers? Last year, he made eight double bogeys or worse than the major championships. If he can avoid those big numbers, I mean, there's no question of my mind. He has the ability to contend, but he's just got to not, you know, kind of like Ricky did earlier in his career. he'd have a propensity to make a seven or an eight at a moment when you really didn't need to do that. If JT can avoid the big numbers, he can contend. Always won the Masters making more than one double bogey in I think it's almost 40 years.

So that's key for him. John Rom was absolutely fantastic last year off the T. I think he finished fourth. In the tournament, the only Bubba gained more strokes than John off the T last year at the Masters. And he was fifth in the field and strokes came putting last year. Think of John Rom. You think of his ball striking.

and him crushing it off the team. But he putted absolutely fantastic last year. If he doesn't open with 75, that big slow start that he had last year, I mean, a better start this week is going to be definitely really important to his success. One category with ROM that fits one of the metrics you identified, I think he was 11 under on the par 5s last year, right? Yes. He was outstanding on the par 5s.

He was able to take advantage of his distance then. He's able to do that, and his iron performance, is a little bit better than it was at the Masters last year. He's a guy, I love how we keep going through in all these names. I feel like I say, oh, I could definitely see him winning and him winning. So hopefully we whittled down like some of them. But, you know, Tommy Fleetwood, another guy, like we said about Zander, love the big stage, whether it's the U.S. Open or the Ryder Cup where he was awesome.

He's another guy like Rom, like Bryson. He gains more of his strokes week-to-week on his T-shots, not as much so on his pro-shot. So, I mean, those types of things. the players, I tend to just fear a little bit more towards the guys who are really elite iron players at the best national. Fleetwood, you've seen how great he's been at the U.S. Open, you know, awesome short game, able to crush the ball off the tee, take advantage of his distance. I wouldn't be surprised he succeeded this week, but, you know, I tend to steer towards

guys who gain more of their strokes on approach shot. And then there's one guy who's in this 20-to-1, 30-to-1 range. But you didn't mention who I really like, and that's Paul Casey. one of the most consistent performers at the Masters in recent years. Every stat I come up with last four or five years of the Masters, Paul Casey is like second or third or first, whether it's birdies or scored apart or scoring average or reason regulation. There's third in strokes gained TV green here the last four years.

The only thing I'm wary of with Casey, he was first two years ago in Strokestein approach, 11th last season. Right now he's 40th. So that's dipped a little bit, but his iron play obviously is fantastic when he won the vowspar championship on a difficult golf course. So I like Casey not as much as Thomas, but I do like him a little bit more than Rahmins to sleep if you're looking at guys in that range.

Yeah, and what Casey for me is a guy that I'm going to include in like my, maybe a top 10, a little speculative wager in the top 10 category, and I'll definitely have them in that make the cut parlay. I just don't know about that valspar victory, did help flip the script a little bit about him and what he's comfortable with psychologically in terms of winning because he has not shown a great propensity

to be on a leaderboard and then close out a tournament, you know, the top of leaderboard and then close out a tournament. But you can't argue with that performance and with those metrics that you just mentioned. Closing acumen, like you said, I wouldn't bet on him to win,

but I think a top 10 is, that's a pretty solid bet. All right, we like that a lot. All right, let's get heavy. I mean, let's just go in here at the heavyweights. Now, I have, you know, kind of four favorites. We're not going to have this podcast and not discuss Eldrick Tiger Woods. Let's do him right this second.

What's your sentiment? What's your feeling right now about what he's capable of this week? I think anytime Tiger Woods is upright and functioning, he has a chance to win at Augusta National. And more so than that, like, he hasn't had the close season like he had last year, and we almost won basketball before the Masters, and then obviously went on to win the Tour Championship, nearly won the Open. He hasn't had those moments yet this year,

but his strokes game numbers, his metrics are really comparable to last season. He's fourth on tour this year in Greens and Regulation. He's in the top 20-in-stroke-gamed approach, which is really, really good. He's sixth in-stroke's game total this season. He was fifth last season. So his numbers are really comparable to what he was doing last year. He contended the last two majors of the year and then won the Tour Championship. You know, he's got the best scoring average in the history of the Masters.

One guy to play 25 rounds before, you know. Yeah, that's good. Yeah, that's pretty good. I think that's good. There's nothing he can't, you can't, he hasn't achieved out of best of national. I will say age isn't necessarily on his side. if he wins this week, I thought this was surprising. He'd be the oldest Masters winner since Jack in 1986.

Wow. I mean, yeah, we're sneaking up on 43 and changing around. You know, it's not as frequent that's going to happen. I will say, though, with the way players know more about their swings and bodies and stuff, those age records in the next 20 years are all going to be destroyed. So, yeah, I will say, though, I know he hasn't. People might think he's falling off this season, but, man, his numbers, if you look a little bit deeper into them,

they're still really good and they're really close to what they were. I'm thrilled to hear it. I'm always glass half full when it comes to Tiger. I'm a Tiger Truther, an admitted Tiger Truther. So I'm not going to put in a dance card that doesn't have him some form, you know, way or another. Now, I'm not going to gamble on him to win

because the odds are just too terrible right now. But, you know, we'll see about live betting once this thing gets going. And if he comes out of the gate, like a little slow, maybe not, you know, threatening the leaderboard right away, but he's definitely going to make the cut. That's when the odds might go from there right now in like the 14 to 1 range or so. If he can get me a little tiger action up in the low 20s, then I start to get a little interested. And let's just see what he can do on a master's Saturday, Justin Ray.

You know what I'm talking about. Absolutely. Hey, 11 top five, the 19 Masters starts to grow. I mean, that's better than 500. That's ridiculous, first of all. Yeah. You know, maybe if you see them in a top 10, top five with some value, yeah, why wouldn't you?

Why wouldn't you? Why wouldn't you? That's it. That's what we do. That's the whole point. All right. Let's get into these big dogs. We got Rory, we got DJ, we got Justin Rose.

All three can win, obviously. There's nothing skill-wise that is going to, you know, get in their way and their ability to go out and grab it. Nobody would be surprised if any one of these three gentlemen are slipping on the green jacket. How are you and I going to split some hairs here right now and try and give out some good guidance as between these three dudes? I think the favorite, he hasn't finished worse than six this year in a stroke play

tournament. His numbers are through the roof across the board. Other than the match play a couple weeks ago, and Paul McGinley, the former European in Ryder Cup captain, who's known Rory basically his whole life, told me that he's never seen his game look more complete, but it does now. He's the only player to finish in the top 10th of the Masters each of the last five years. He's by far the best player, strokes game, T.D. Green at the Masters the last four years. He's the best player on tour, Tad Green. It's not even close.

He's, man, he's come so close a handful of times now. I really thought last year paired with Patrick Reed that he was going to come out and light it up and complete the grand slam. But you just look at all those different factors going into it looking among those favorites. The other two guys, though, what Justin Rose has done, he's done everything you can do with the Masters success win. He's second all-time in strokes game per round among players

not with the Masters. And Dustin Johnson's been much better here than in recent years. He was, I think his first 18 rounds of his master's career who was 12 over. He's 17 under at the Masters since 2015. team. And, you know, Dustin Johnson really underrated putter, I think. I don't think people give him enough credit on the greens. He's in the top

five in strokes game punting at the master's the last few years. But man, I got to put Rory ahead of those other two. Okay. I look, he is the odds on favorite. Vegas agrees with you. The betting public agrees with you. My only knock

on Rory is the scar tissue. You know, we just, I indulge in the pop psychology a little bit and wonder, you know, he had the tournament. He was standing on the T at 325 p.m. this time a year ago. You mentioned it. I, you know, mono e mano with Patrick Reed. And the first thing Rory does is pump one that damn near into the, into the parking lot. So we, we, we, we, we, we, we, I think we as golf fans are rooting for Rory, the career grand slam fits him. it fits his career.

It fits the success, the transcendental kind of success that he's shown us since he was a teenager. But, you know, he's got some damage when it comes to Augusta. And it just is a, you just wonder, is he going to be able to get out of his own head? Now, the success at the players championship really, you know, should be a positive sign in that direction. The way he bore down after making bogey in the final round on the 14th hole at the players, he came right back with a birdie on the 15th hole.

And the 15th hole is no pushover down there at TPC Sawgrass and then finished it out with another birdie at 16. And that was the pathway to victory. So, you know, and we heard all of this, the talk about where his head is at, the positive thinking, the pressure that he's taken off of himself. Maybe this will be the one, Justin Ray, could be, right? Yeah, and I will say about Star Tissue and Rory Napalori. I mean, in 2011, he was in a 10th, 11th team, and he led the Masters, like seven, eight holes to go. It all fell apart, obviously, you know, hit that shot into the trees,

you know, disaster of an afternoon. The next major he played, he went to congressional one by eight shots. So he's got, I know it's not, it's not Augusta, it's not the same thing, things in his career where he's been able to rebound from catastrophe, major championships and respond in a really positive way. I feel like there was an element of that as a players. You remember going into that day. There was a number I probably about his inability to close in the previous years

when he was in this position. And he came through and did it. I just, it just feels different this year. Rory just feels like a different player. And you mash that up with all the different advanced numbers and metrics and stuff. And, yeah, he's my favorite. And I think he's going to do it this week and complete the grand slam. Well, if the only way you're going to get, it's the same conversation we just had about Tiger.

Now I'm rooting for Rory to shoot, you know, just one or two under each day, Thursday and Friday to get his odds in alignment with what I need in terms of a little bit of value. I can't put anything on them at 7 to 1. There's no return there. But yeah, I love it. And it would be a really cool story in a season of really cool stories. Justin Ray, what an incredible conversation. Folks, I can't encourage you enough. If you haven't signed up to the 15th Club, you need the newsletter, you need this information every day this week

as you prepare yourself to watch the Masters. And then they're going to give you breakdowns after each round. I'm, as a consumer of the 15th Club, I didn't know that was coming up. I'm very excited for this. And then you can follow Justin Ray. What's the Twitter handle?

At Justin Ray golf. at Justin Ray Golf. Pay attention to the Twitter. He's giving out nuggets on there. Justin Ray, thank you so much for coming on. You must come on again. I'm insisting right now.

Please. Yeah, man. I'd love to. I'd love. That's awesome. Thank you very much, my friend. We'll talk to you again soon. Best of luck.

All right, brother. Enjoy the Masters. All right, my enormous thanks to Justin Ray. We have Joel Beale coming up next. But first, a quick word from our friends at Draft Kings. The first major of the year is coming up as in tomorrow, Draft Kings has

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and use the coupon code fairway. That's www. phsox.com code fairway. Or please. Now on the tea. Joel Beal. All right, my birdie buddies.

This master's gambling preview would not be complete without a quick tour of the props that are available. We are trying to prepare you for the perfect menu, the perfect recommendation on how to allocate your capital. We have one of my favorite purveyors of the props when it comes to golf. I read his column religiously. It's always one I look forward to.

We have on the line, Joel Beale, Golf Digest.com. there are always the Masters really gets you know the market rolling in terms of the the American sporting public we have in our rearview mirror the the NCAA tournament March Madness is over it is April and it's time for for all of our gambling needs to be met by the Masters we go roll right from March Madness into the Masters I know that you have taken a look at some props out there all right let let's go head and give out some winners, because this is what we'd like to do here, Fairway, Rowland.

We'd like to give out winners. Let's run through some of these props, and you have a good track record, Joel Beale, so not too much, I don't want to put too much pressure on you, but let's get out a couple of winners here. So for me, the first guy that really pops out is Justin Rose, and the prop is, well,

he finished in the top 10. This is the guy every time he peeped up at Augustine National feels like he's competing the green jacket. I think in his last eight times at Augusta National, I think he has six top ten. So the fact that's the number one player in the world, I think he's at plus one 15 to hit this mark.

So guys, I'm double-checking right now. He has six, four times, excuse me, in the last seven tries, he's finished in the top ten. And playing the best golf of this career right now. He's someone who's finished second at this event twice. He's come really, really close to a couple other weeks coming into the event. So we've seen on how history shows you have to have a little bit of momentum coming into the Masters to contend.

A lot of the guys in the top ten right now, really aside. Rory and DJ aren't really coming in hot. So I think the number of contenders this year really buying for the green jacket is smaller than years past. So Justin Rose for plus 115 to just get a top 10, I think that's the easiest one on the board. That's incredible. I can't believe that he is available at plus odds for that top 10 finish. You just went through it. His string of top 10s is impeccable.

And so it feels like that's a terrific value play for my perspective. plus odds for Justin Rose to finish in the top 10. And the thing that jumps out at me about Justin Rose, he uses so much of the season. He is tiger-like in this way. He got his win out of the way at a very established, credentialed venue like Tori. And now he's just sort of been binding his time,

but he always comes roaring in. Not roaring like a tiger, but comes roaring into the masters. And man, yeah, I love that one. Okay, so that's one winner. Let's keep this going. The other one that kind of jumps out of me is this is a big one, but will Tiger Woods make the cut? And no is plus 450. I actually, it's funny, a lot of people are down on Tiger right now.

The ancillary stats actually say he's coming in well. I think he's eighth in strokes, strokes gain. He's third in Greens and Regulation. But, man, the way the public is going, they really think Tiger is going to contend. I think he's in like third or fourth in terms of figures right now. So a plus 450 for no, as well as he plays here. Just a little bit I saw him today.

He doesn't have his best game at the moment. Clearly, a lot can happen between Monday and Thursday, but I think if what we, if you're wondering that, man, maybe he kind of exhausted the themes a little bit at the WGC. match play a couple weeks ago in Austin. It's a pretty tensilating $450 that I'm jumping on. Phil Nicholson has very similar odds. Phil Nicholson, obviously, he's got three ones here this tournament, but another popular

figure who really hasn't had the greatest of track records here in the last four or five years. Now, he's to miss the cut at plus 250. That's the only one I really jump on. I'd probably jump on the still one before the Tiger one. But if you're looking for some value, I think Tiger and Phil being big name that there are, their games really aren't there at the moment. I think as much as it pains the bet against those two,

I think you got to get that bet with your head on this one. So for Tiger, I can't join you on that one. It runs contrary to what I want to root for. And Tiger in, you know, playing the Masters on Saturday is, is such a big part of my overall enjoyment.

And it's something that I've been looking forward to, you know, nearly since the moment that he won, down at Eastlake at the Tour Championship at the end of August, early September there. So I cannot join you on no for Tiger making the cut, even though I appreciate the value there plus 450. You're getting paid quite a bit to go ahead and speculate that way. And it's a nice contrarian play. The Phil one feels a lot more valuable to me because Phil is,

has demonstrated already this season, he is nothing, if not all or nothing. He is either finishing in the top five of tournaments or he's just flat out missing the cut. I mean, I just, I still can't get over. I gave out Phil Mickelson as a potential winner of the waste management open down in Phoenix. And he shot, you know, a normal kind of Phil Thursday round, you know, in the mix, well on the correct side of the cut and then he showed up Friday and shot you know shot to the moon he shot 77 or 78 some crazy number and missed the cut and then he came back the next week and won at pebble so we're in this phase with phil well that consists of two parts and the first part he doesn't give a fuck

about anything Joel bill i mean it's a glorious moment to be a fan of phil mickleson because the the the stories and and and his attitude is just perfect It's just a wonderful time to enjoy Phil Bickleson's golf career and really his social career, his media presence career at an all-time high. But who knows golf-wise what the hell is going to show up? So getting a plus odds, better than two-to-one odds that he misses the cut, feels pretty good. I don't mind that.

I'm with it. And you're right. This is really peak Phil being Phil. And given that there was news last week that Tiger is starting his own theories of matches with Discovery Channel going forward, one that Phil might not be part of, and the fact that Tiger might have cut still out of that, we could really see some Phil being film moments here this week.

I think we could be in for some interesting theater. Oh, I love that added bonus there. Do we think that Phil and Tiger are going to do practice round together? I would be very, very surprised if that happened. I don't think, I think the friendship has cooled tremendously in the past two weeks from all accounts. Wow. Wow. Now, that's interesting because they're still, I believe, set up to do another version of their head-to-head competition, the so-called match that the sporting public was treated to the day after Thanksgiving in 2018. They're going to do another version of that coming up here in 2019. I think that's already locked in. But you're saying Tiger, you know, taking a spin-off and, you're going to do another version of that coming up here in 2019. I think that's already locked in. But you're saying Tiger, you know, taking a spin-off and, and setting up his own series of matches may have maybe rubbing Phil the wrong way.

So we're not going to see Phil out there in his dress shirt at a practice round rubbing shoulders with Tiger necessarily. Both guys are scheduled to talk on Tuesday and there can be some interesting fireworks from one of those guys. I'll leave it at that. Wow. I love it. This is going to be some exciting stuff. All right, let's do one more prop that jumps off the page. And everybody, get yourself over to golf digest.com. Joel's props recommendations will be up. I personally will be consuming them avidly

and thinking about how I want to allocate my capital. I like what we've done so far. We got as value plays, Tiger and Phil to miss the cut. We love the value of Justin Rose inside the top 10. Let's do one more here. All right. This is the big one. This is if you've got the Tiger ones to reach,

this one's going off the map. new course record of 62 or lower. Yes, plus 1,400. Jordan Speed last year had a shot at it going into 17. He then, unfortunately, his birdie putt leapt out, and then his drive-on-18-clipped-tree finished with the 64. So it's supposed to be really rainy, though, this week house. And there's a very concerted effort that we're going to do

with the driving distance kind of issue on and on golf. Some people want to roll a ball back. Some people think there needs to be more constrictions on equipment. if you look at the way this course is set up and the way the weather is 63, 64 could be out there and someone gets high, it gets special. We could finally see someone break the 63 barrier here.

So plus 1,400, just for the action, just for the thrill. I'm jumping all over that. And one guy to watch out, I think he might have a shot at that would be Tommy Fleetwood. He's sitting his iron as good as he ever has. I know he's not the best iron putter, but I think that's kind of one of those misconceptions about Augustine National.

It's just you still have to be just not a bad putter. It's making sure those two-puts don't turn into three. but and Fleetwood's really got to handle with a short game of the late. I wouldn't be surprised we see somebody like Fleetwood go for the record this week. Man, that is juicy. God, I love that. So,

I have, I like, there are two props in that vein. I see one at, will any player shoot 63 or less? So 63, we have 63s on this golf course occasionally. Did anybody shoot 63 last year?

Speed just shot 64, I know. 64 was the low. Yeah. Was the low. And then, so that one's available. I see it at plus 550. And then the course record, you had it, I see it at 1,600 here, 16 to 1 odds. You have it at 14 to 1 odds.

So that's a great range. And this notion that, now, we know that Augusta National installed throughout the premises, the most advanced drying of, equipment, you know, they have the ability to dry out the greens in a matter of hours or less than, maybe it's less than an hour now, a subterranean air system that permits, you know, the ability to really control the terrain above. Even with that, you think that the persistence of the rain will create an opportunity for somebody to go genuinely pin-seeking. And I like your nominee, Tommy Fleetwood.

Another guy that I like in that vein, who also has the length in case it's wet out there, is Tony Fee now. That's another guy that loves to get hot and string together, five or six birdies. And you know that on the backside, especially 13 and 15, those are routine two shot holes for him if he's able to hit a drive in the fairway. So, you know, that's, boy, I like that one quite a bit. So I'm going to join you on that one. I'm going to do both. I'm going to do both the course record 62, and I'm also going to do 63 or less,

plus 550 for 63 or less, plus 1,400, 1,500, 1,600, on a new course record in 2019. All right, well, you just heard Joel Beal and I running through the reasons that we think a course record is in jeopardy. I'm here to tell you about your own opportunity to threaten the course record at your joint. How about Calloway's new Apex 19 irons?

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That extends to the eight iron. They've upscaled the look. Calloway has these beautifully shaped on the scoring irons. You're going to look down at them and feel very confident as you threaten the course record at your local golf institution. There is beautiful to look at as they are to hit available in classic chrome or smooth smoke right now at Callowaygolf.com. We would be looking out, golf digest.com, your props, recommendations, all of them

will be set forth there. Thanks for coming on and join us on Fairway Rolling. All right, my thanks to Joe Beal, Harry Gagion, and I are coming up next to give you our epic flash picks for the Masters. But first, a quick word from our pals at CBS Sportet Golf fans.

It is our favorite. of year. You know this. The master's a tradition unlike any other. And CBS Sports is where you can get direct streaming access on your phone or computer to live coverage all day for each round of the tournament. The coolest part is you choose between four different streams. So if you want to watch the featured groups of the day, go ahead and click on that and track those fellas. You want to follow the field as they come through Raymond Corner. You want to put your yourself in a pemento cheese frame of mind and watch amen corner go ahead and do that you want to watch holes 15 and 16 go do that or you just want to just check you sit back and chill with a cool

beverage and a little maybe an egg salad sandwich watch the top golfers getting ready for their round on the practice range you could do that too that's one of the four streams available we have been looking forward to this week since the last screen jacket was awarded so you really do not want to miss a second of the action. I am not going to miss a second of the action. The best part is this whole thing is 100% entirely free. No need to pay a subscription or have an expensive cable package to watch. Just download CBS Sports app on your phone or visit cbsports.com slash mastersfR today.

Four, please. Now on the T. Harry Gagnon. H. Dog. How are you feeling, buddy? What's up, POS? It's Master's week, buddy. I'm pumped. It is a very, very exciting time. We are happy to be alive. This is a mega fairway rolling podcast. We've given out a lot of ideas, a lot of angles. Justin Ray and Joel Beal. covered a lot of territory, Harry, but I know everybody listening to the pod is dying to hear who you and I have lined up here as the guys that are going to bring home the trophy. You and I are going to do our epic flash pick of the week.

This is the big dog right here. We got Verno's pick on Monday. You and I are going to give ours out. This is the epic flash pick of the week because Epic Flash has used artificial intelligence and machine learning to develop its innovative flash face technology. You and I both need some artificial intelligence and some machine learning to run some algorithms and some, you know, some number crunching, some digital, some ones and zeros across the board.

The, uh, we have a handful of players here. Zander Shafley, Francisco Marlonari, Kevin Kisner, J.B. Holmes. They have all one on PGA tour this show. year with the Epic Flash sub-zero driver, and the Epic Flash models continue to have more worldwide wins so far this year, Harry, than any

other driver model. It's the number one in driver usage across all major professional tours, and there have already been 10 worldwide Calloway driver wins by non-staffers. These are people not getting paid to play this driver. They're choosing

to play it based on performance. You and I have some performance in front of us. So let's talk about it. Let's get down to some brass tax, my friend. Now, I know you sent me a little note in advance. You have some players that you want to stay away from. Let's start there. Who are you running away from, Mr. H?

You know, I'm running away from Jordan Steep. I know history is on his side at the Masters where he's played well in the last three out of four years, I believe, but still at 18 to 1. I feel that's terrible value, considering he's dead last house, dead last in driving accuracy on tour. He's down to 33rd in the world ranking. Five years ago, he was number one for 26 weeks in a row. He's at 33 now. He has zero top 10s in 2019.

Best Finish is being tied for 24th. It's so bad for him. It's everything. It's driving. He isn't putting. I look, hey, can you give me odds house that at some point on hole number 12, Speed puts it in Rays Creek like you did twice in 2016, allowing you to win with Willett? Can you give me the odds on that, buddy?

I can't help you with that one. Now, I will tell you, I do not like the official world golf ranking in Mr. Speet. That puts him on the outside looking in here. History does not look kind on players that are not inside the top 30. of the official World Golf rankings, I believe the statistic is something like 23 of the past 25 winners of the Masters have been inside the top 30. And you're right, his metrics across the board have been wildly inconsistent,

as evidenced by the round he shot just this past Saturday at the Valero, Texas Open, where he opened with a 42 on the front nine and then 31 lights out on the back. We don't know which one of the, of the, five multiple personalities that Jordan Speath seems to be inhabiting right now in dealing with is going to show up at Augusta. Now, everybody knows better than to bet against Jordan Speeth, but you and I don't have to bet against him. We just can walk away and not bet, have him involved in any bet whatsoever. So I'm, I'm in agreement with you. You know what else, too? You know what else about Jordan, too, is that, you know, there's a lot of opportunities

that the masters to get Eagles, a lot of opportunities on 13, 15, good. You know, eagle holes all season. All season, he has one eagle to show for all those double bogeys and triple bogey as, like he just mentioned, his opening nine on Saturday. Awful. He was like, I believe, six over through 10 at one point. And yeah, I mean, it's just a matter of trying to get those down and he can't do it this year. It's an incredible statistic. And we already know that 13 and 15 are crucial holes. Those are the holes where the winners distinguish themselves. So, all right, Harry, so we're going to stay away from Jordan. I have a stayway for you that I'm not sure you're going to agree with because it does run contrary to some very recent trend lines and some excellent performance.

But I cannot recommend to all of our faithful listeners having anything to do with Brooks Kepka. this thing are you aware of what he's done in terms of this diet that he went on starting in November and lasting all the way up until kind of early March up into the players championship have you heard anything about the details of this thing film me in a little bit on exactly what he's got going on so apparently he put himself under the the care and supervision of his performance team a diet where he's eating 1800 calories a day. Now, that's 200 calories less than the, you know, the guidelines recommended by the food and drug administration here in these great United States of America. And it had the effect.

He lost something like between 20, between 18 and 25 pounds. He lost 10 to 12 yards driving distance. And he apparently didn't have a cheeseburger for about three and a half. half to four months. Now, his performance at the players championship was confounding. I expected him. Who does not you or me, buddy? And what did he need to go on the diet for? All he was doing was kicking ass and taking names. He won in China. In the fall, he's perfectly poised to just keep rolling along. I have no idea what the rationale was. We needed an intrepid golf journalist. that he trust to get in there and get us some additional color

and canter. But as long as he's still recovering from this diet, I don't want anything to do with Brooks Kepka at any number. Look, you know what? You know what? I can hear what you're saying about this. You know, granted, he's always around. Whenever it's

major time, he's around. But it's going to be, he's going to get the full circle of treatment of media around him come U.S. Open trying for the three pete at Pebble Beach. So he'll Everything will be on him then, but still, I can hear you at this. Maybe at this Masters, he doesn't get it done, or come U.S. Open time, going for that three Pete.

You know, everyone will be around him making waves. Well, maybe it's the case that that's where he has his site set anyhow. And that would make sense, right? If his diet finished up in early March, then maybe he's already taken a pass at the Masters. Maybe he already sort of dialed in the notion. but the PGA championship comes up at the end of May, why would he wave off the PGA championship? He's the defending champion.

So hopefully, at least by end of May, our third week of May, he's back in working order and he's got his distance back and all the rest of it. I just can't, I can't condone that kind of approach for a guy that is at peak performance by all indications. You know what I mean? Absolutely, sure. All right, well, let's move on to some guys that we'd like. like. And I have one guy. My sights are set. I'm honed in. I'm going to give him out as my winner for the 2019 Masters. But I want you to go first, please. All right. Well, you know, last week, him, he's a buddy years. He was 22 to 1. He was 30 to 1. Then he was 22 to 1 last week. He's down to 18 to 1. I still like him to have a solid round.

I like Rahm at 18 to 1. He finished 4th there last year. It's time, isn't it maybe? Isn't it? time. I know I've been pumping Tiger, but it's 16 to 1. I think he's going to hang around. I think he's going to be on that leaderboard come Sunday late, but I'm going to take it 18 to 1. I'm going to take Justin Thomas to win it. I mean, he's been

too quiet lately, hasn't he? I mean, he's ninth in FedEx points, but here's a thing. In 10 events, he's got five top tens, and he has the highest ranking on FedEx points in terms of

events played without winning a tournament. Now, Gary Woodland is a fifth, but Gary Woodland played 13 events. Justin Thomas has played 10 in this season so far. Doesn't have a win yet. But like I said, five top 10s, and he's been quiet. He hasn't even done anything really. This is the time he's been waiting. He's been practicing.

He's been focused. Justin Thomas is 18 to 1. That's a huge number. I think you've got to jump all over at that number with him. Harry, you were talking about 18 to 1. There is a prominent sports book that you and I both look for for odds. They have Justin Thomas Avil, but 20 to 1, along with our buddy, John Rom. I like both those guys.

I'm going to put a touch on both of them. 20 to 1 is better than 18 to 1, right? There's some money. You can jump on it for me. That's great. Okay. So is that, is JT, is that your number one? Is that the...

That's my number one flight. JT. Number one peck JT. He's been too quiet, and he's still. playing very well this season, doesn't have a win, 18 to 1, 20 to 1, whatever you get them at, take them. Well, I'm going to do something that's against my interest and against my judgment. Now, I am going to give a spread-out card, and in fact, I recommend everybody for both

you, Harry, and I to track what we do are. I'm going to put up my picks on Twitter. I'm going to give out a whole menu of selections on Twitter at House from D.C. tomorrow late afternoon or so, and you're at Harry AAO, right? Yep, yep, I'll do the same. You'll have yours up. I'm looking at a guy right now

that has led all players in percentage of Greens hit and regulation at the Masters since 2010 at 73%. He's the only player in that span to play 16 or more rounds and hit 70% of his Greens or more.

This gentleman has a top 25 finish every year since 2012. He has four top tens. He has two runner-ups. He's presently inside the top 30 on tour on two very important metrics. This is Strokes gained approach, which is the second shot. It's a crucial metric. We talked about it with Justin Ray. He's also inside the top 30 on strokes.

Gaines T to green. That's getting the ball to the green. His ball striking the past 15 years. Only three winners have finished the season outside of the top 30 in that metric. He is shot under par at Augustine National in 29 of 52 rounds. This gentleman's name is Justin Rose. It is just too much of a track record, Harry, for me to ignore him, to walk away from him. He is a pick that is in vogue. He's available at 14 to 1. I don't like those odds, but I do like all of the statistics I just ran through. The metrics bear out Justin Rose as inside the top 10, inside the top 5, putting on the green jacket.

And I also like this narrative, this added narrative. His caddy has been out all season. He is returning just for this event. I think there's a little bit of cosmic, carmic golf gods looking down. His caddy had a serious health issue, and Justin was using a different caddy all the way up. And then the caddy and Justin made it a deliberate decision.

The caddy could have come back for the WGC matchplay event in Austin, Texas. But they agreed together, let's not push things. Let's just wait for Augustine National, an old familiar friend. And I like this idea, of the guys back from this, it was a very serious health issue. Fooch is his nickname.

Mark Fulcher is the caddy for Justin Rose. Justin Rose is my pick, my epic flash pick to win the 2019 Masters. Wow, those stats were fantastic in that ending too. I mean, you got me taking them now too. I'm all over too.

I got to jump on some out some way. Even at 14 to 1. Now, look, part of the reason. Look, look, we can find the matchups with him against another guy. We can figure out some other stuff. Well, how about this?

Cousin Sal, against all odds, I made a short appearance. We talked about some of these angles that we like. Apparently right now this moment, we can play Justin Rose against Tiger Woods and get even odds at it. Now, I told Cousin Sal, and I'm within earshot, because I'm

taping this from home. Mrs. House might want to know where the mortgage payment went this month. it could be on Justin Rose in this head-to-head matchup. What do you think about that? We did against all odds today. Yeah, he's down on Tiger.

He doesn't, he's down on him. But still, that is, that's pretty good odds to have it for Rose. Well, you know, I'm also looking, I know you look at some top 20s as well once in a while, see we can get some value there. Yes. I'm like an ad and Scott, it's plus 140.

It looks like a nice price. He's next winner there. At August, I think you won in 13. hasn't been playing a ton but still three top tens and only eight events this year and I also like Scott at plus 225 for best Australian house. Obviously

Day, Leashman, are great golfers and Cameron Smith as a guy house. We mentioned who's on the rise and he finished fifth at Augusta last year. But only having to beat three guys, I'll take the guy who already owned a green jacket over those of the three at plus 225

Scott to be the best Australian as well. I like that a lot. I'm going to give out one top 20 to join you. And then let's bid a do to all of our eagle enthusiasts out there. I'm giving out Corey Connors, the winner of this past weekend's Valero, Texas Open, down in San Antonio, Texas. His strokes gained approach statistics are off the chart. And this gentleman has positive golf momentum. He won the Monday qualifier to get himself into.

to the field to compete down there in San Antonio. He had only one way to make it to the Masters, and that was by way of winning the golf tournament. He pulled it off with a scintillating low round on Sunday that had him grabbing the victory at 20 under at a TPC golf course, notorious for low scores and for difficult conditions. Corey Connors is available right now. now as a top 20 play at plus 600.

That's six to one odds. That's worth half a unit, don't you think, Harry? Oh, definitely. I mean, you can imagine the ride he's rolling right now,

the roller coaster and the ocean, he's feeling, he's got to be pumped. I mean, it's, like I said, Masters week after what he just pulled off. Yeah,

you got to, once he's out there, though, he's got to tone it down. He's got to stay focused, but still, at six to one, come on.

How can you not even, I'll All right. So we, we, we, we've got a couple good,

uh, top 20 plays. We gave out our winners. You and I will both be on Twitter. There will definitely be some live betting as the week progresses here and we see some names show up on the leaderboard that we're not anticipating or some performances that we didn't anticipate. We will definitely be partaking a lot,

a little bit of live betting. Harry, as always, love you. Thanks for coming on. And we will, uh, compare notes on how we did over the weekend. I know we'll be in touch.

daily monitoring this thing. Thanks for coming out, buddy. Absolutely. Hey, thanks a lot, House, and thanks for coming on AEO this week as well. Thank you. I wouldn't miss it for a cheeseburger. Hey, remember, by the way,

I will be at the PGA. I hope to see you there, buddy. I'll be in Long Island. I hope to see you there. I don't see how I can miss it. It's right up the way here. I'll get in my lear. I'll have to borrow somebody's

private jet privileges and get up there. I'll be up to Saturday and Sunday. We'll have a ball, buddy. We'll have a ball. Thanks for everything. That sounds good. Thanks, Harry. Take care, brother.

All right, my Eagle enthusiasts, there you go. You have it. All of the wisdom, wit, and insight week at muster to help you build your winning lineups for the Masters this coming weekend. As mentioned, we will have a recap show ready for you at the ringer.com. Fairaway, Roland is the feed. Sunday night as soon as the green jacket is on a new gentleman's shoulders, because I don't think Patrick Reed's going to win again.

We will have the show up for your enjoyment and consumption Sunday night into Monday morning. If you want to listen to it on your commute, please feel free. In the meantime, keep abreast of what is going on with our own master's selections. You can follow my Twitter feed at House from D.C. I will definitely be giving out my. annual, you know, master's menu of selections at Harry AAO, Harry Gaillans, picks will all be up there. And at Chris Vernon Show, Chris will be Chris. Who's Chris?

Verno will be given out his up-to-the-minute selections. And you have to check into the Chris Vernon show on Thursday. He has a way of giving updates during the show. listen to this to believe it. You will come away enriched, I promise you. Two other things to keep your eyes out for and your ears attuned to my eagle enthusiasts, the Ringer Invitational has been conducted. It's the first ever with none other than the ringer's own Chris Ryan doing his very

best Jim Nance impersonation. I'm in this thing. Bill Simmons is in it. and the legendary southern rapper Scarface. We played golf at the Los Felice Part 3, the famous part 3 from the movie Swingers. It's on YouTube. You can get there through the ringer.com

or the ringer's YouTube channel. I have not watched it yet because I am embarrassed by my putting performance. I will at some point make peace with myself and watch. But I encourage all of you to watch it. Scarface is actually good at golf. One other note, our good friends at Callaway have a podcast.

It is the ship show. They are giving out picks, I believe, at the end of the day tomorrow, or I know, at the end of the day today, Wednesday, April the 10th, keep an eye out. They might be live broadcasting. I'm not sure what they're doing, but go on to Callawaygolf.com, go on to the community and look up the ship show podcast. They'll be doing their picks and giving them out there.

Jeff Newbarth and AJ Bopel, the host, running through their own master's prognostication. That's it. We shall be back, my birdie buddies. Sunday night, there's going to be a green jacket. Hopefully there's some green money in all of our office.