Fairway Rollin' - Open Championship Deep Dive With Justin Ray

Episode Date: July 17, 2024

House and Hubbard are back with Twenty First Group’s Justin Ray to deep dive into the Open Championship! They start off with what the best course strategy may be (03:00), whether Tiger Woods will make or miss the cut (13:08), and odds for Scottie Scheffler and Collin Morikawa (18:26). Then, they rank the LIV golfers who’ll best perform (24:51) and discuss how Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, and Rory McIlroy will fare (32:19). They end with their final picks to win the tournament (49:28). The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Hosts: Joe House and Nathan Hubbard Guest: Justin Ray Producer: Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Unlike any other. Oh yes, my friends, this is in a major edition of Fairway Roll. Golf podcast on the Ringer podcast network. I am your starter, Joe House, joined by our incomparable accomplice, our PGA tour boots on the ground. And my birdie buddies, my eagle enthusiast, my par-saving pals, come on.

It's the last major of the season, and all we're doing is bringing bangers this week. Bangers and Mash? terrible F minus for Starter House. But A plus plus for Jason Sobel preview on Monday. I hope everybody got to hear that and get into these storylines and some early thoughts. Now it's time for the meat of the matter. Our boy Justin Ray here to break it all down for us as the dance card gets ripe.

It's a three ball. The weather is unsettled, but we press on. Off we go. Jay Ray, welcome to us from Scotland. Yeah, thanks for having me, guys. I look like, if you see, this is probably best to be consumed in an audio format. Usually when I'm involved, that's what you should do anyway. But the background behind me does not, it's not very resplendent.

It doesn't display the excitement that's going through my head right now, getting ready for this open championship over here at Trun. So you are our boots on the ground. this week. The Nate Dog is not across the pond. And I want to start with what your impression is, your sense of the weather, because for sure, it's an open championship. We've been seeing and enjoying live from the guys are all in long pants and long sleeves. And the forecast right now calls for rain every day and wind in like the sort of 10 to 15 range depending 40 to 50% chance it it sounds like weather in Scotland um what's your sense of at this sort of early stage obviously

everything can change but is there any benefit is there any um note noteworthy um advantage in terms of uh when guys might be going off Thursday and Friday probably a little too early to say there i will say that it was very scottish here today i got off i got off the plane early this morning and it looked like i was in scotland that's for sure it was gray it was rainy uh it looked like the open championship should uh should look in my eyes that's some of the best viewing back there in states but um yeah look it's it doesn't the wind doesn't look to be too much of a factor it looks to be pretty consistent throughout the week in the 10 to 15 mile an hour range which isn't overly devastating in way. And then the course is probably going to be a little bit soft because, I mean, there was

rain today, rain yesterday, and we're expecting to see some more showers as the week progresses. So I don't think the weather will be an overwhelming storyline. I think that, you know, we know that at the open, Mother Nature is the best offense for these old, old style courses against modern technologies and players. I don't think there's going to be a ton of that. We'll probably have, I mean, we've had four consecutive winners here, going all the way back to Calquebecan 89, a double digits under par on this golf course. So it's been susceptible to a lot of birdies in the past. I know only two guys really ran, ran away and hit in 2016, and then the rest of them are playing their own tournament. But the winning score is usually pretty

low, and I expect to see that again this week. Well, it sounds from a course perspective, like this is a slightly, it may be the same course, but I wonder if it's going to play the same way, Jay Ray, because the general sentiment here is you got to make your birdies on the front. There's some shorter par fours on the front. Things start to get a lot, tougher on the back. But there are some reports from the ground of guys hit and drives that are taken some of the penalty off the tee out of play on the back. Is there anything about the weather that makes you, it sounds like maybe not, that makes you think differently about that score early and hold on. But then secondly, as you build up your dance card and think about who's got a

chance this week. Is there anything about that good early, hard, late general course layout that makes you lean towards certain types of guys than others? It's always tough early in the week to make prognostication based on what you think is going to happen with the weather, especially over here. So it's difficult to lean too much into that until maybe you get within 24 hours of a first T-shot. Your point about the front and back, the back played almost two shots harder than the front in relation to bar at the open in 2016. And the weather wasn't too much of a pervasive issue that week. We got it a little bit nasty for about a day and a half, I remember, in 2016,

but it wasn't overly a factor. Yeah, look, I think we've only had two opens here in the last 20 years. So it's really tough to draw a lot of meaningful conclusions out of the past data and statistics, which is always frustrating for me because it's what I want to lean on, obviously. But I think that take everything with a grain of salt early on in the week. Conditions are always viable to change dramatically, especially at an open. I'm kind of tap dancing around giving you a great answer because I think it's just a little too early in the week to make a big based on. You wouldn't look at back nine scoring as a stat here just because the back plays a bunch harder.

You think those sort of front back nine performances are divorced from what we'll actually see here at a major. For sure. Yeah, I think that's largely dependent on some independent course factors week and week out. But yeah, I will say that that's the overwhelming statistical trade about the golf course the last two or three opens is you've got to go out early in the round if you're starting on the front side and get after it and make those birdies and convert those opportunities because, you know, Henrik Stenson 2016 was standing. It's a really difficult back nine to make up ground on. So it'll be interesting to see.

see the storyline develop with the wind if that plays an impact on how players are able to attack some of those holes on the back but yet to be seen and I can't make a huge strata big conclusion yet based on what we've seen so far for a day or two. Let's drill down into some of the attributes that you do think will be meaningful around this track. I have in my head that Trune is a place for true flushers. And it's It just is probably the recent C bias, if you can call it that, of the 2016 watching Phil and, you know, an all-time iron master in the form of Hendrik Stenson going around and doing what they did in that final round on Sunday.

Strokes gained approach are obviously going to be important. Are you doing things like strokes gained, you know, guys that perform well on links courses, guys that perform well on slower greens, guys that perform well in wind, or any of those, let's hear some of your filters in terms of how you're trying to come up with a group of likely successful golfers at this venue. Yes, one of the most, the biggest empirical number trends when you come to an open championship and compare it to the others is that it's most favorable to the older players, more so than any other major by far.

You look at the average age of winners in majors since 2010. The average winner in the open is, I think, 33 and a half. And the next closest is the Masters of like 31. It's not even close. There's been four winners, age 40 or older, since 2010 at the Open. There have been two combined at the other three major championships. So it's a place where, you know, distance is not, and maybe this ties into that perfectly,

but driving distance has not been a significant factor. If you look at the ranks of winners over the last several years and compared to the other major championships, there hasn't been a winner at the Open rank in the top 10 that week in driving distance since Rory McElroy in 2014. You look at the other three major championships, Cincinnati. He's 60% of the time, the winner is in the top 10 to driving distance. You know how significant it is usually at U.S. Open venues, PGA championship venues,

have kind of taken on those same traits in recent years. This is more of, I like to call it like a democratization of distance and ability, where you can have a guy like Brian Harmon win, and you can have Tom Kim, one of the shorter players on the PGA tour, finished tied for second. Zach Johnson can win an open championship when he's knocking on 40s door. Like, it opens up the door to so many possibilities and so many other different types of players where your distance off the T

isn't going to be an overwhelming factor. I also think, too, that the creativity you're allowed to have at an Open Championship in terms of play around the Greens is something that's really interesting to me. Like, you look at a guy like Victor Hovlin where week in and week out, we know his struggles around the Greens

with short game, chipping, bunker shots, flop shots, whatever it is. Well, here you can come up with different solutions of those problems. Like, you remember one of the most famous shots in the open the last 20 years was that the punt, that Cam Smith had around the problem, bunker. You know, that was, that was incredible. Or you think about here in 2004, I think every

10 handicapper in the world, after they watched Todd Hamilton bump it around with a three wood or hybrid was, yeah, I was trying it out too. Everybody was trying to do that if they saw him have so much success. So those are some traits at an open championship where experience is more valuable, distance off the team, not so much. And I think the traditional play around the greens is something that you can, it's not as a reliable piece of information because you can come up with different solutions to your problems there. Well, so when you then step back and look at guys coming in, from your perspective, how much does momentum matter? When we had Jason Sible on the Monday show, you know, he talked about that correlation between Scottish Open and performance at the Open. Do you look at momentum coming in?

because we haven't had as much of a sample size. There's not a lot of guys who played Rocket. There's not a lot of guys who played John Deere, who you would think would be at the top of the board here. How do you think about momentum coming in this week? I think there could be a level of comfort in getting here, I don't know, a week and a half ago, spending some time in Scotland,

getting your body adjusted, and playing some golf on a different type of course like they had at the Renaissance. See, this is spoken like a guy who's dealing with jet lag right now. There you go. That's cool. But the Renaissance club, you get out there and get there and play that event. And it's not the same golf course, obviously, but you're getting a little bit of accustomed to everything.

I think there's something we said for that more so than maybe like finishes in the last month or so. There's a comfort there and there's, you know, getting the kind of shots visualized and having some success with the week before the Scott of Show. We've seen kind of dovetail into some pretty big weeks. I know Phil winning back-to-back is a key one there. But there were guys, I remember several years ago, I think it was a lot of, was Brandon Stone that went out and shot 61 in the final round of Scottish.

And then next week, he nearly leads after the first round, I think. I only know that because I had a ticket for it. That's why I'm going to play it right now. But the momentum can carry over. But I think it has more to do with comfort in your surroundings and, you know, being adjusted to, you know, the jet lag and the, you know, difference type of golf shots that you're going to hit at an open championship. All right. Let's do it.

Let's get into some names. we realized Nathan, myself, and Jason Sobel, after Monday's show was wrapped up, that we talked together for nearly an hour. And one name went entirely unmentioned for that hour. That name, Justin Ray, was Eldrick Tiger Woods. We were doing storylines for the Open Championship. It was the first time in the history of golf podcast. I think maybe so. Maybe we set a record.

Now, since we taped, Tiger's name has surfaced in a couple of different contexts in the first place. God bless whoever grabbed the Colin Montgomery quote. We threw it right at. Now, Colin tried to distance himself. If you're trying to be generous and gracious to Colin Montgomery, he said, you know, this was an out-of-context quote, grabbed from a place where I was making a much bigger point. um poor poor Colin he just can't catch a w it's probably true it's probably true but he just can't catch a w so he tried to clarify on the xbox twitter machine uh but you know tiger that was that was Derek that that was Derek Fisher throwing a lob to Kobe a hundred percent setting him up

with that i mean it was but the Collins he's a loquacious man he likes to speak yes yes answer questions honestly and you know what over the years you're going to say some things that are going to set some people up to, you know, throw a windmill down on your, on your dome. And that's what happened there. Well, let me just say, thank God. Thank God for Colin Montgomery. Thank God for this spark. Because the other thing that I saw in these last 48 hours that really caught my attention was an observation from Tiger's old coach, Hank Haney, who said, you know, the prevailing wisdom out there is that Tiger's last best chance will be at Augusta, and Hank said that he disagrees, that he thinks the open championship is a better

candidate for Tiger to perform well for a couple of reasons. In the first place, distance is taken out of the mix. Experience, to your point, about the average age of winners at 33 and a half is really important. And, you know, it comes down to, you know, the fact that there should be less three puts for sure because of the speed of the greens, but really just that. experience factor and the ability to navigate a links course who on planet earth is is better apt in terms of experience and thinking about a golf course than then tiger would so it caught my attention and i did ask nathan to help me with this uh we are looking at the odds tiger to make the cut is plus 240 now reminder the open championship is top 70

and ties out of the field of 156. And there are dog shit players in this tournament. I mean, there are a lot of dog shit players playing this tournament. He has 100% making this cut. I'll do respect. Wow, Nate dog. He's making the cut. No, they gave him the motivation that he needed.

The Colin Montgomery quote is a gift. I saw him hitting flighted irons that looked fantastic. And he's going to get around, okay. he's a little bit thinner. He's said that it's, you know, he still can't bang balls the way that he wants to, but he's moving a little bit more. He's staring in the camera saying he does believe he can still win,

which he does every fucking tournament. So, but House, you bet him to miss the cut at the U.S. Open. So, like, but have you come around? He has 1,000% making this cut. I agree.

I think he's going to make the cut, right? I mean, you know, let's talk it through. Yeah. Nate mentioned the point I wanted to get to is that we always talk about, you know, we talk about Augusta National or whether it was Southern Hills or those are tough walks.

It's hilly. It's difficult for him to get around. That's not the case on a Link's golf course. It's the easiest walk you're going to have probably all year in terms of just, you know, flat ground and, you know, being able to navigate that. And look, I know we talk about sometimes like the cooler weather, maybe it's tougher for him to get warmed up. But I don't know. I just feel like it's going to be.

a net positive to have kind of the cooler air this week and just the walk being easier. But hitting the golf shots is not the problem. That's never been the problem. That's kind of why I'm excited to see him in TGL next year because he still hit golf shots and I'll think anybody. That's just the walking part. That's the, you know, with the body and all the things that's gone through. You know, that's what I look at.

And so, yeah, no, I'm with you. I think he will make the cut because I think it's this kind of golf course like I said, all the different trends with distance, with experience. It just fits a mold for a guy. I'm not going to pick him to contend, but to make the cut, absolutely. I'll pick that. Yeah. Great.

I love it. I love it. All right. So let's jump into the 1B storyline. And you put this up in the last 12 hours. The last two players to win six times in a PGA tour season before July the First, Arnold Palmer, who had six, including a master's win, who then went on to win the Open Championship at Trune and Scotty Schaeffler, who has six wins, including a Masters win,

and has arrived at Trune, I would say, in a far better mental and physical state than the condition he was in when he arrived at the U.S. Open at Pinehurst. I know that the numbers are going to support Scotty Sheffler. How are you looking at Scottie Sheffler's fortunes this week? Yeah, the numbers are never in question when it comes to Scotty. You look at him in the major championships the last two, three seasons, and he leads every conceivable ball striking category, every scoring category. I think to your point, yeah, he probably isn't a much better state.

He's getting used to being a dad, you know, getting the sleeping schedule right. He's taking a little bit of time off. The glare that he experienced at Valhalla was like something he never. ever had experiences like before in terms of, you know, the whole ordeal with getting arrested and all the publicity that came with that. So yeah, no, I would, I would say that I looked at the number and I actually wrote down on my, Nate loves my chicken scratches on my yellow pad, getting my thoughts together. I wrote dot, dot, dot, dot value question mark, because four and a half to one is what I saw to win. And I don't know, based on what we've seen this year, that seems a

little off to me. I think that number should be smaller. So yeah, it's still, you know, four and a half, five to one is still, that's not great odds. But I mean, look, look at the gap the guy's put between himself and number two in the world. Look at, you know, I know he didn't contend at Pinehurst, but that's been the exception to the rule over the last two, three years of major championships. So, yeah, I would be shocked if he didn't have a big say in the storyline this week. Does this extended break trouble, were you at all for him? I don't think so. I don't think with the caliber of player he is and he's taken

it's not a length of break that makes me worried and it wasn't due to any injury that we know of so it was more so get everything situated and I've already made 27 million on the courts this year or whatever and you know let's get ready for the one that really matters coming up in July

so early in the week House picked Colin Morikawa because I don't know why actually and so I want you, I mean, I know why. I know why. He's effing great. That's why. It's because he was T3 at the Masters. It's because he was T4 at the PGA. It's because he was fourth at the Charles Schwab and second at the Memorial and T14 at the U.S. Open because he shot a 72 on Sunday and only that. He looked good last week, finishing T4. You know, we've talked a little bit about how the shots

gain putting really since the Masters, starting with the Masters, has been terrific, and it seems like that's what's fueling him. What are you seeing in the numbers on Morikawa? How do you assess the chances of a past open champion, of that past Open champion this week?

I am very, very high on Colomor Cowan this week, just based on how he's performed in the major championships all year, the fact that driving distance isn't as much of a factor at an open as the other major championships in big events. Colomor Cala, too. he has not finished outside the top 20 in a stroke play event since before the Masters.

That's how consistent he's been week in and week out. I mean, he's just, I mean, aside from Scotty, he's about as sure a thing as there is. And I can't believe I'm saying that a year removed from maybe where he was at this point 12 months ago. But he's, look, he's shown up in all the big events. It's inconceivably, he hasn't broken through with a win this year. It speaks to how good Scottie's been, truth be told. because, I mean, he's played some unbelievable golf, his statistical profile.

The approach play is looking more and more like the guy who was in the top three in Strobsk-Skane approach for years and years when he first broke in. I'm really high on Colin Warcow this week, and he might be my pick to win too. Hey, now. Well, you got a little time to figure that out, but not much.

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We mentioned at the top of the show, the today's show, this pod is really the main course of the week. And so if we're in in main course mode, I feel like we can take a bunch of big entrees at a buffet line and then try and do some ranking. And my buffet line, I want to take us to live. I want to go to the live buffet. And I'm going to put four entrees in front of you. Bryson is his own station.

Bryson is the carving station. He's in his own category because he's really distinguished himself this year. He deserves his own treatment. And whatever meats you want over there, it could be a beautiful lamb, it could be a roast, nice prime rib. Whatever meets, that's where Bryson belongs. He loves protein. He used to love, who knows. He looks good now.

I like to go along with his positive, his good brain, he's got good body. But here are the names. I have Cam Smith. who we know about from St. Andrews, just in general performs well on Lynx courses. We have Tyrell Hatton, who is in form on the Liv Tour, also a good performer at the Open Championship,

sort of in general. We have former Open champion Louis Oostazen, who very quietly under the radar has been clocking top fives in these live events, and then we have the erstwhile would love to be heard from but hasn't been heard from in major season.

John Rom, who can't believe that he has to be in this mix in the buffet line. He thinks he deserves his own station. He thinks he should be,

I don't know, a beautiful paella station perhaps somewhere coming from Andalusia. Now, I understand John Ron's point of view, but I can't do anything but put him in this buffet line.

fine. Let's just talk through those those lived names and see if any of those guys are guys that you want to take two scoops of rather than just one. I appreciate the Bryson as his own station in this discussion. That's certainly worn it. I will say, though, that this has been the one major where his statistics were the worst. His best finish, I think it was a tie for eighth at St. Andrews a few years ago, if I'm not mistaken, or maybe it was Royal St. George's, I can't remember which one of once. But overall, it's the worst in terms of strokes being total for round. across the four major championships in his career. So a little bit hesitant there, but that being said, you know, six, they're better in each of the first three majors. It's pretty rare for a guy to do that four times with a win in a season.

It's only happened a handful of times since 2000. So if I'm looking at the buffet line after we go through Bryson, I think I'm going to put Tyrell Hatton first when I go through on that list, simply because I've got too many other, I've got demerits for the others that kind of knock them down a touch in my, from an analytical perspective. You look at it had in his best finish in a major championship, came right here at Royal Trune in 2016.

He's so much more consistent in the majors than he was earlier on his career. He's such a frustrating watch those first, you know, five or six years when he was really on a prominent player on the global stage because he was so inconsistent in majors, missed a ton of cuts. That's not the case now. I think he's got 11 or 12 made cuts in a row in the majors. So I think he's a more consistent, sure thing to bank

in terms of prognosticating this week. Our guy ROM isn't going to be second either because I'm going to put Cam Smith second. I just think that his fit on golf courses like this and he hasn't puttered as well in the major championships this year. His form hasn't been as strong, but on a golf course like this, like, look, you're not super penalized for being wild off the tee.

There's no trees to hit it into. Like, it's this, that's kind of, I mean, that's kind of the thing that slows him down in some of those golf courses. So I think it's close between, I can't believe I'm doing this. I might have ROM fourth. Hey now. Hey now.

I'll put ROM third slightly ahead of Louie, even though Louis has had some good form simply because he, in the last year or so, he hasn't done much in the major championships. But I'm not high on ROM. I just haven't, I've got to see it. He's a big week for it. He's losing strokes ball striking. Yeah, he's losing strokes ball striking the majors this year.

He's looking at, I mean, basically this being a washed out. completely washed out 2024 years and the week. Yeah. Yeah. And where the biggest splash is him going on Fox News with a letterman jacket on. Like, I mean, that's honestly, there haven't been many high points after that. I know he's contended in some of the live events. But yeah. Yeah. So I think I'll narrowly put Rom ahead of who season, but, you know, you do bring up some interesting points about Louis playing a little bit better on the live tour. House, are you in on Rom this week?

I was considering it. The reason I was considering it is because it was the most organized, calm version of him that we've seen at a major press conference. I mean, he felt hysterical to me at the Masters, which was, you know, he was like, and by hysterical, I mean, overwhelmed by the hysteria of, like, you know, trying to be the emcee of those events. and non-factor at the PGA and then the foot injury, which he went into in a lot more detail at this press conference in a way that a dummy like me could understand. So I was very skeptical about him withdrawing from the U.S. Open because of form.

And that might have been a factor in it, but he definitely couldn't walk. He was effed up. And so I want to be gracious about it. You were cynical in this age? I can't believe it. Well, I mean, I was all prepared to fire off. Holy human to cutback.

So, yeah. But I will say he was contemplative. He was thoughtful. I thought it was kind of charming. He talked about this might be one of his last events because, you know, well, knock on wood, good thoughts for his family. His wife's pregnant with a baby girl. And the pregnancy isn't like a perfect pregnancy.

So he says, you know, he might not play any more golf, any more meaningful golf. after this, he'll see how the year kind of plays out. And if he kind of feels that way, and he's in decent headspace, he has been good in open championships. He does have a track record of, you know, distinguishing himself at open championships.

So it's just a matter of form. He said he found something on the range the last couple of events. A very small thing. But, you know, if he's got any form at all, a top 20 for him is minus one 15 on the Fandle of sports book. I might splash it, Jay, Ray. Golf's more fun when he's playing well. He's a great character in the game.

And I mean, he's so much fun to watch, so talented. So I hope you did find it because I'd love to watch him out here this week. But yeah, no, I think for me, though, just the performance of the majors this year just isn't enough for me to have a ton of confidence in seeing it. And he's got, like you mentioned, he's got a lot on his plate in terms of his personal life. And it's good to hear that I haven't seen the press conference yet, admittedly, but it's good to hear that he, sounded positive and in a better headspace because the game's in a better place when he's in a better place. Well, two guys with games in

a better place are Zander and Ludwig. And I want to get your contrasting and your thoughts on these two guys. I mean, Zander has just been a model of consistency this year. He's played 17 events. He's got 11 top tens, I think only twice as he finished outside of the top

20. So it's just been a pretty insane year for a guy who, in hindsight, got the major that we shouldn't ever be surprised that he did. You know, leading up to it, we were grouping him with Cantlay as maybe one of those guys who was going to get passed by by this next generation of players like Ludwig Oberg, who has seven top tens this year, I believe. And it feels like he's been in the mix even more than that. The second at Pebble, okay. The second at the Masters was the one where all of our eyebrows went straight up. But there's been this Sunday performance issue with him shooting a lot of 70 plus scores on Sundays.

How do you make these two guys coming in this week? And why do I feel better about Ludwig than Xander, even though Xander's had a year to remember that I think really pales in comparison to Ludwig? That's interesting. You would say you have more confidence in Ludwig, especially after we saw it, what we saw Sunday at the Scottish Open. He doesn't have a final round under par since the match.

He doesn't have the final round under par since the math. Yeah. Yeah. Well, he lost nearly four strokes T.B. Green, which is inconceivable when you watch him hit golf balls. You don't think that's humanly possible for that guy. But he does have, I don't know, maybe he's a little tired.

He didn't have a ton of off time. He played all fall. He won the RSM Classic. He's going from. college season. Maybe there's something to do with that in terms of just this buildup and he's ready for a little break. But yeah, the fact that he doesn't have a round under a final round under FAR since the Masters. And the ball striking just deteriorated by round.

Last week was kind of a microcosm of that micro trend that we've kind of seen with him. But obviously, just when you go out and nearly won last week, he led after 36th the U.S. Open the first time he played that. he runner up the masters. I mean, it's just, the town is, is unreal. I will say, though, that I'm going to favor Zander simply over Aber going into this week, just because of how consistent he is. I mean, not only you mentioned the top tens of the season, but he has 10 consecutive top 20s in majors,

which is really hard to do. It's the longest active streak of any player right now. One of two players finishing the top 10 in each of the first three majors this year. Bryson is, of course, the other one. I mean, he's just, we talk about how good he is, before every major, how good he is through the bad, gaining strokes in every facet. And that's why it's really tough for him to have a bad week. You know, the win that he got at Valhalla kind of felt inevitable like it was going to happen.

Yeah. At some point, he was just too good and too talented and did not break through. And look, he's good. He's a guy who's going to be a factor in all these big events and be at the top of that betting board for a long time. I will say. I mean, the win at Valhalla, I'm interested to hear what you think on the Xanderfront because everybody sort of poopo-poohed Valhalla as a major venue because, because, of the core setup and on and on and on.

But I still, you know, removed from it now, I still look at that as a quality win and a validating win for a guy who, man, he's obviously earned his third spot on the odds board. How do you feel about Zander in this moment? Yeah, I love him. I'm going to play them top 10 and top 20, tiny bit on top five as well,

because I just don't know why you wouldn't, right? for sure, you know, betting to win is always, you know, the fool's errand. Plus 2.10 to top five, plus 100, you know, to top 10. Yeah, even money to top 10 with all of the, you know, Jay Ray just mentioned the consecutive

top 20 finishes in majors. And the thing also, I mean, I'm not going to overindulge. We do this. It tends to be our way to look at press conferences and then say, oh, we'll look at, you know, lots of times the press conferences, though, it puts us on alert, right? If we see anything that's weird,

then we're like, okay, not when they, stay away. Zanderu is a man who is in his field. He's in his bag. The dude knows what he's about. He's very, very comfortable right now. His press conference was excellent in conveying that comfort he expects to be on the leaderboard. He expects to perform well.

he's super comfortable at links golf now i mean that scottish open win was no fluke and you know i think he's distinguished himself uh career wise uh on on the links j ray right he has you know great finishes at the open championship in in recent memory isn't that true yeah tied for the 54 whole lead at carnoosey in 2018 ultimately didn't get that done it was malnari the one that day but yeah look his game carries everywhere, like I said. And I'm looking at the bigger picture data trends and trying not to focus too much on what they say at the press conference. But sometimes I do that too, where I see something and it's a red flag.

You're on the vibes. You're on the data, baby. Well, let's, let's, that's what I'm here for. I have one. I have one for us. We're more than halfway through the show. Speaking of the vibes. And it is Rory time.

And again, I, I, I couldn't express. I couldn't convey. There it is. No notes. Oh, boy. Well, except I couldn't convey any more enthusiasm for how much I enjoyed his press conference. I really, it was a 10 out of 10 for me.

It hit all the marks, all the notes. It was the same self-aware, Rory. It was, he was earnest. He talked about, you know, how he's processed. the failure at the U.S. Open. And, you know, the numbers are not going to be great for him to win. I definitely am playing him top five and top ten at this venue because what you have to do to talk yourself out of Rory is imagine a catastrophe.

Now, you don't have to go very far to imagine that catastrophe. But it's really splitting hairs because he's always around the hoop. and he said as his press conference how happy he was, how gratifying it was to be around the hoop again. We're still inside of 10 years of his last major win. For one more.

Right, exactly. Let's get into the Rory story a little bit. So to give you some context, this isn't going to help anybody make a bet, but I was looking at the, I wanted to put into context the 21 top tens he's had in majors since the beginning of 2015.

It's the most of any player in that span, just without a win, but the most of anyone during that stretch, most top tens since his last victory. There are some 58, I think it was, stretches in the history of men's golf, where a player had in a 10-season span, and these can overlap so like Jack would have a whole bunch and Tiger has a bunch. 58 different instances of a player having at least 21 top tens in major championships in a 10-year stretch.

Rory is the only one to not win. The only guy. I mean, it's getting to the point where it's kind of historically, like I just said, it's unprecedented in terms of the number of times he's, like you said, right there at the basket, he's got the ball and making another basketball analogy, just clanging it. Charles Smith. It's rough. I mean, all the underlying numbers in terms of his performance suggests that over this last decade or so, he should have at least one or two more major championships. just the amount of times he's put himself in position, the underlying strokes game metrics,

all the other stuff, winning the other tournaments that are majors, everything else that goes into it. And just whatever magic beans are missing, he hasn't had him there in the big moments. And so, I mean, I'm a guy, and I've come on this show for years and said, I'm more relying on,

you're there often enough you're going to break through. You're there often enough it's going to happen. I still have to say that, because that's just the principle I live by. But as someone who supports the guy in Roots for him, finds himself room for him just from a human perspective, it's getting tougher. It's getting tougher and more difficult.

And if you're a diehard supporter, it has, I mean, it's been a roller coaster a couple of years into majors, and that one at Pinehurst was maybe the most painful. Well, tell House about it. I want you to look a little further down this leaderboard, because we started by saying that, you know, average age is higher, is there's a little bit more leveling of the field at this major. You know, I came in ready to say,

well, it's got to be Aaron Rye because, you know, if you look further down the board, Aaron Rye's the guy because, you know, he was T4 last week. And if the back nine really plays harder, guess who is first in back nine scoring this year? It's Scotty Schaeffler. Guess who is second? It's Xander Shafle. Guess who is third? It's Colin Morikawa. Okay, no surprise. But guess who is fourth in back nine scoring? this year. It is Aaron Rye. And then I go and look at his odds, and they're not great for Aaron Rye. So outside of Aaron Rye sitting there at whatever, plus 360 to top 10, you know, you should be paying me more of Aaron Rye top tens at this event. But when you look further down the board,

Jay Ray, what do you see? And what does the data tell you are people we should be looking at? I like to name that the odds board doesn't match some of the numbers he's put together on the PGA tour this season. 120 to 1 to win is a player who's 13th, sorry, 13th on the PGAT total this year. And it's coming off a 65 Sunday at the Scottish Open. That's Alex Noren. I think he's a really interesting name in terms of some of those underlying metrics. Top 20 in strokes gain T to Green, experience at the open. Nothing out here is going to rattle him.

He's seen everything in the pro game. And that number, 120 to 1 doesn't match 13th in stroking total. That doesn't fit the mold. And that's what I'm usually kind of looking for when I go down the board. And I've got another name who was a blast from the past who's resurfaced now recently. It's kind of been a really good story. 13 to 1, I see him for a top 10 finish. Tied for 15th at the Scottish Open, five top 25s in his last seven worldwide starts.

Former prodigy Matteo Manacero is very interesting to me for a top 10. I just like that value. 13 to 1 for a guy with some enormous upside and with some pretty solid numbers coming into this week in terms of recent form. So those were two down the board I like. And then another one, I don't think I'm ready to bet him to win a major championship.

But the guy was runner up at the open last year, and I see him at 6 to 1 for a top five finish. I mentioned how distance isn't a big issue with the open championship most of the time. That's why I'm pretty big on Tom Kim this week. Not to win the tournament, but I'm going to have him for a top five and a top ten for sure. I'll have a ticket on this.

Does it, House, does it weird you out that Max, Max, home is also 1, 20 to 1? So is Sam Burns. Something, you have to talk me in, well,

we haven't seen it out of Max. Yes, I agree. I think that odds properly reflect where they are right now. I do, too, but I mean, a year ago, it was 20-something to 1. I mean, wow. He's a guy, two guys on the Ryder Cup team. I mean, the ceiling. Obviously, the ceiling.

extremely high in terms of talent, but just the recent form isn't there. And I think maybe I don't have any, this is just an observation I'm making on the moment. I don't have a lot of things to back it up, but it feels like in the split tour era we're in, the momentum players

are more higher up the board, if that makes sense. Like, there's a less consistency in terms of player success at this golf. Since everyone's coming from from everywhere, a little bit more, that tends to, I don't know, I feel like that No, you're right, that's why Davis Thompson and SEP Straca are, and Aaron Rye are favored ahead of those guys, isn't it?

I mean, that's exactly the reason. I mean, that's what makes sense to me, because you can't put those guys, all due respect, but, you know, you can't put Davis Thompson at this point in his career in the same class as Max Oma or Sam Burns in terms of what they've accomplished. So, yeah, no, it's interesting because I just saw that value down the board, and even a guy like Alex Noren where it just didn't make a ton of sense to me

in terms of what they've put together on the course of this season or maybe in recent seasons and where they are on the odds list. One of the things that we've seen over, we'll say just the last four open championships at Trune has been first-time winners, one-time winners in terms of major champions. And they have, I mean, Justin Leder doesn't

quite fit this bill, but definitely Henrik Stenson and, you know, Todd Hamilton, who beat back Ernie L's and Mickelson, I'm looking at guys that haven't yet won a major, that have major talent,

that have been around the hoop a little bit, and that this could, it wouldn't shock me if either one of the names that I'm about to mention to you sort of jumped up and grabbed it. And I think both are sort of in decent form, not incredible form. Tommy Fleetwood pissed a lot of people

off last week by not finishing in the top 20 at the Scottish. Sobel was mad. Nate was mad. I didn't invest too heavily. But, you know, I wanted a better performance because then it would have been the springboard. But it is producing some interesting odds now

for him at the Open Chip. The other name that I put in this category, guys in like their early to mid 30s that kind of hit that 33 and a half mark is Tony Fienow who quietly has a good record on links now Sobel made fun of me for it but I think he has a pretty good record on links and also sort of quietly coming more into form I mean that US open performance was not a fluke that's the kind of Tony Fienow and I think you know at a golf course where you know we think of Fee now having the distance but but it doesn't I think he has all shots Tony Fina. I'm not, you know, where he can hit iron off the tea and go around that way.

I think it's fine. I think of him as strategically competent. So those are a couple names where that fit that, you know, both of those guys winning, getting their first major, probably their only major at this spot wouldn't shock me. Give me some reaction to those guys and let me know if you have another name or two that fit that bill. As you were teeing it up and describing those, that kind of player in terms of all the different adjectives and descriptors you used. Those were literally the first two names of not of Tommy Fleetwood, too, 32 under par at the Open championship since 2018, best of any player. Being able to play in an open is not the question. It's just can he get over the line in one of these big events? He plays his best golf throws.

It's cliche at this point when you talk about him like this, but he really does play his best golf in the biggest events. So I don't, I mean, I take less stock and he's a guy where he didn't play great last week. I don't invest too heavily in it. I think that that can only help, you know, if you want to put a wager on him and knocks me down the board a little bit, but that's only a little bit beneficial.

But yeah, he's another guy, too, like you were talking about Aaron Rye earlier, who leads the PGA Tour in Fairway's hit. I think Tommy's either second or third, so not going to put themselves in many precarious positions out there. Fianow's interesting, too. I mean, I know that the first thing, because he's a big guy,

the first thing everybody goes to is the power, but, you know, he does have a pretty complete game at this point. You mentioned, you know, looking at the past winners and the kind of stinson, like Mark Calco, that kid kind of fits that mole. He's a guy won 13 times on the PGA tour and, you know, broke through and got that major championship here in 89. So maybe there is something to be said for that, just the kind of fit of that winner. We also had Arnold Palmer in here. So it's, it's, it's not like it's tried and true throughout the entire history of World of Trune. But when you look at some of that profile, I mean, I definitely, I don't think anyone will be surprised at Tom Lee

a one major championship. House, is it time? It could be. It could be time. I mean... Because I'm not out of gas. Who's going to win this damn thing? After all that, all the consternation,

the back and forth, this is the gear of Scotty Sheffler. You will fulfill the 1962 Palmer notes that I sent to the world on the Twitter machine. I can't go against them. I just think, this has the feel of being pretty wide open, I think. And when that happens, I end up going 10,000 different directions.

And then if I have to pick somebody, I circle back to the inevitable. So I'm going to say Scotty Sheffler going out on a massive limb, but I gave you some other names I like. Longshot, Alex Noren, you know, a high finish for Manasaro and for Tom Kim. And I put Collmore Cowell right there at two. I'm really high on him this week. I mentioned him not finishing outside the top 20 since April. And just, you know, he's played such good golf all year.

It just feels like maybe that's the, maybe it's not a career. We finally knock this thing down, like a Fienauer, a Fleetwood or McElroygan back in the winter circle. It's a season one for Morcawa where he finally kicks the door down and gets the win that his play suggests he should already have. Anything change your opinion on Morikawa or are you sticking with it? house. Who me? Yeah. Yeah. Well, I'm sticking with it. I bet him to win and I had him in the 20s and it's at 22 to 1 a little while ago. But I'm going to do, I'm going to say another name.

And, you know, we're going to do what Jay Ray just described. Just circle back. Let it, you know, a little bit of a sort of reflexive comfort zone thing. Hopefully not gag reflex. I'm going to do Rory again. I really do think. in view of... You're the Michael Scott meme. I'm ready to get hurt in this.

He is 100%. This would be like me picking Spieth this week. God bless Jordan Speeith. We wish Godspeed to him getting full recovery from his wrist injury because I'm going to choose that as the explanation for why he's sucked all season long. And we don't need to cover Jordan Smith any further. But I just think, you know, the talent is there.

there's no reason that he can't win. He keeps showing us the talent. He keeps showing us that he could be at the top of leaderboards. He is, you know, there's only three guys with two wins or more on tour this year. It's Rory, it's Bob McIntyre. And we probably should have given Bob McIntyre. He probably should have gave Bob a little, a little, a little, uh, shy. No chance.

He's too drunk. Maybe so. Maybe so. Top 20 out of respect for being in his homeland. but, you know, Rory is my comfort zone. I'm going to, I already have my rational bets out there. You know, we went through the card. I mentioned some of the bets.

Tiger is the real outlier here. Going back to Rory is my comfort zone, Nate, Doug. I'm sticking with Ludwig because I think he's a generational talent. And I think if he is a generational talent, he's pissed as hell about Sunday. And he's going to show us what he's really made of. And, hey, a Swede one here last time. so it's time to bookend with some Swedish victory, but that's nonsense.

I really am excited to see how he responds to fumbling a golf tournament, given the quality of ball striking that this guy is capable of. So I'm excited to see him go this week. And, you know, the only other thing I want to know how, Phil Mickelson, make miss cut. Miss, miss.

I'm dying for the sports books to, offer us a Phil versus Tiger matchup because I am plowing in to the goat. They showed these two guys on the range on live from back to back. Now they're back to back because Phil is lefty, but

we're going to tiger all day long. OZempic Phil. I'll lay all the Jews for him to miss. You know, I have to make a go borrow from the Podfather. What a site. What a site in the year in the year of our Lord,

24 to see Phil and Tiger Woods back to back on a driving range. It felt like I was in high school. Pretty amazing. Lots of stuff has happened in the last handful of years. You ready for the round or two in a long way? You're ready for the round one 18 hole match bet? Phil versus Tiger Woods odds on Fanduel? Oh, feed it to me.

Let me eat all of it. Phil Mickelson minus 110, Tiger Woods minus 115. Yeah. So it's basically even tiny bit more juice on Tiger. That fits. That makes sense. I'm on Tiger. Tiger's my guy this week.

Tiger to make the cut, fill the miss, and off to the moon with Phil Mickelson. I don't think we're going to do any better than that. My buddy buddies, my pars saving pals, my eagle enthusiast. Our thanks, as always, to Justin Ray. to us from across the pond giving us the literal boots on the ground. Reed, we're very appreciative. Another tremendous major season under our belts with Jay Ray.

Jay Ray, I can't promise that we're not going to tap you. We do still have the Olympics on the horizon here. There might be some occasion for us if we can grab you. I don't know if you're going to Paris or not, but maybe try and break down that dance card a little bit. And, you know, either way, enjoy yourself over there in Scotland. Make sure to play some great golf. There's a, we heard, you know, through the grapevine,

maybe you got some golf lined up after the Open Championship. Enjoy all of it. Our thanks to all of you. Our thanks to our producer, Eddie Ocampo for all the great work for me and the Nate Dog. Please, everybody, enjoy the coffee golf and then make yourself a tea time in the afternoon unless you're on the East Coast where it's 115 degrees. and then maybe just go to the simulator and have some ranch waters at the bar there.

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