Fairway Rollin' - Pat Mayo on the Arnold Palmer Results and Believing in Jordan Spieth

Episode Date: March 9, 2021

House and Hubbard tee up after the results of the Arnold Palmer Invitational with Pat Mayo of 'The Pat Mayo Experience' to discuss the exciting story lines and results (01:56). Then House admits he fi...nally believes in the power of Jordan Spieth and his viability to win tournaments (20:43). Lastly, they look ahead at favorites to take the Players Championship. Hosts: Joe House and Nathan Hubbard Guest: Pat Mayo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Friends and welcome to this golf podcast unlike any other. Oh yeah. It is not quite fifth major championship time here on Fairway. The golf podcast on the Ringer podcast Network. I am your starter, Joe House. My Bernie buddies today is a three ball. We have, of course, our PGA tour course. correspondent on the ground. Nathan Hubbard, he is on the ground in California, not out in
Starting point is 00:00:52 Pontavidra tour headquarters, but, you know, we'll make do. And we are joined by one of our most favorite, our beloved gambling guru, our betting buddy, Patrick Mayo, Pat Mayo from the Mayo Media Network. That is his YouTube channel. Of course, you can catch them. all across the podcast and Twitter universe at PME. Pat Mayo. Hi, buddy. Hi. We just lost our national tournament today.
Starting point is 00:01:29 So it's a sad day for us Canadians. Well, we'll get to that in a second. The first tee is wide open for this three ball. Let's stroll on over, throw a few pegs in the ground. It's getting warm out here on the eastern part of North America, which means you and I could play some golf again,
Starting point is 00:01:46 Pat Mayo. and Hubbard never took a break. Let's throw some pegs in the ground and get this podcast out into the fairway. All right, boys, Pat Mayo. What's happening, buddy? Thanks for coming on. Yeah, we were talking about that. I mean, it's golf weather in Toronto, probably not quite as hot as it is in Washington, D.C.,
Starting point is 00:02:06 but, you know, I could get out on the course right now. I can wear shorts. It'd be fine. There we go. I mean, it's officially time. March 15th is when I'm allowed to start entering scores again. And I can't wait because I'm going to push. that handicap. It's at least two strokes in the upwards direction. We have to sew the seeds for
Starting point is 00:02:26 all of the sandbagging for the balance of this 2021 golf season. But it really feels like a lot of great things are coming together. We have fans at golf tournaments. The tour is having good success at continuing to fend off COVID issues. We're seeing some great golf from some great players We have incredible storylines, and let's just jump right in. The beefy one himself, the incredible bulk. We wondered aloud last week, Nate Dogg. What in the hell are we going to do about stories in golf? We have stories in golf.
Starting point is 00:03:05 His name is Bryson D. Chambot. We really debated last week whether to play him for your one. We did. We went back and forth. We decided to sit tight because we were like, let's save him for a major. Well, that's exactly it. But what we didn't really fully understand was his affinity for Arnold Palmer and how much he really wanted to win this tournament. I mean, Bryson was in tears after the API. I don't think he was in tears after the U.S. Open. So there was something about this one that really mattered to him. And holy shit, did he deliver. I mean, here's the message for us. The connection between this course and Wingfoot and Pat, you got a way in here. But every time we have, have a very long course with thick rough where Bryson's going to be hitting wedges into greens to take out a lot of the difficulty in the greens. He's got to be the favorite from now on.
Starting point is 00:03:58 That's the rule. I was thinking through this. The long rough really goes a long way, especially when he can muscle it out of there. Even on some of the longer shots and getting it over water, when there are hazard areas that is just not a problem for him. But it's something to do with like classical courses. We used to joke that any course you can play in a simulator that Bryson is going to be awesome at, but even to think like he's one in Detroit. In Detroit, I mean, it's a Donald Ross course. It's super old. I know it's an amalgamation of two courses when they play it for the rocket mortgage. But any of these historic designs, it's like Bryson's had the textbook on them for 35 years, and he's just been going through. He's like, oh, I know how to take these places apart. So even
Starting point is 00:04:37 Mirfield Village, another one, a Jack course. Like if it has a famous designer, feels like Bryson's going to pick it apart. Yeah, House, I have two stats for you. The first stat is that only Canadians use the word amalgamation without stuttering. Very classy. And the second is, Bryson was T-42 in driving accuracy. He only hit 57% of his fareways. But the guy was still T3 in Greens at 69%. I mean, he's just kind of making a joke of courses that have the thick rough. It's actually an advantage. It's actually an advantage. advantage to him when that rough is that thick. We've been talking about how maybe golf course designs, you know, you just got to really narrow the fairways and thicken the rough.
Starting point is 00:05:20 That's actually going to help the guy. It may be that we just need to shave everything down. I don't know. See, the interesting thing from what Mayo just said, he mentioned Mearfield, and that rough was up, and it really only takes one hole maybe to completely sabotage the whole thing, which is what happened why he missed the cut. The three wood. Yeah, three went out of the rough.
Starting point is 00:05:43 At the memorial, but one stat, and this is from the homie, Justin Ray, no course on the PGA tour has more approach shots from outside of 200 yards than Bay Hill. And Bryson played, there were 20 holes that fit that. He played those 20 holes at seven under par. And he had a proximity to the hole from over 200 yards of 45 feet. That was, you know, for the week. And that was eight feet better than the rest of the field. So the thing for us to do, all of us is, and Pat, you can do it with your Fantasy National.
Starting point is 00:06:24 Are you going to, you might have to work in a Bryson filter on Fantasy National. It's funny because a lot of those 200-yard approach shots that he had were actually just the par 3s that were 200 yards because none of the par 5s, he actually ended up over 200 yards away. So he kind of defies stats. It's funny because it's the best thing that's happening for golf now. And Nate, I know you've been buying the residency on Speeth Island, but I guess I didn't realize how popular Speeth is and how much the general public loves him. But prices are up in the hotel, man, way up.
Starting point is 00:06:59 He's a needle mover. So he gets like my dad called. He's like, oh, Spieth is in it. But the other thing that he said, Bryson's in it. Like these two guys trying to replace a Tiger void, a Phil void, even a Ricky void, when he was good, that people loved Ricky so much. We're talking about the players pretty much the apex of his career in 2015. But having Speeth and Bryson going well at the same time couldn't be better for golf.
Starting point is 00:07:24 They're actually the two stars. Like Dustin Johnson is a robot. No one cares when he wins. It's great. We acknowledge he's good at golf. That's fantastic. Morikau is kind of the same way. He does it in such a stenson-esque way that it's like, oh, he just went out and took care of business.
Starting point is 00:07:40 With Bryson, he's yelling at himself. Lord knows where he's going to be on the course half the time. Speed's yelling at Grellar. He's fighting with everyone. He's in the water. Then he's chipping in from the bunker. Like, there's something exciting and personable about these guys that they're the real crossover stars.
Starting point is 00:07:55 And the best part is there's something about the volatility of their game where Bryson can go out and win at Bay Hill. He might be last in the field for this week for all we know. Like, that just happens to him every fifth event based on the style that he plays. And we know with Smith, that's definitely in the realm of outcomes for him. Well, I want to pick up on. the point you just made about the excitement. So we had at Bay Hill, they claimed 5,000 fans.
Starting point is 00:08:17 It felt like 25,000 fans. I mean, I understand. Some guys made their way in through the fences. It did seem like it, right? Like the vibe at Bay Hill was live. And Saturday was especially mother effing electric. It was great. Hair is up on the back of my neck.
Starting point is 00:08:38 I was not prepared for that. didn't anticipate the combination of like Speef's hole in one was a full on adrenaline rush like you know Johnny's at attention kind of fucking moment like
Starting point is 00:08:54 we were getting into some golf and it's only March and there's fans at the golf course and I'm going to tell you this is sappy and I'm old so I I'll confess you know all all the reasons why this sounds so dumb
Starting point is 00:09:10 but like, how about this? It felt like we're turning a corner. And I understand how stupid it is that I'm watching a golf tournament on television down in Florida. And guys I've never met before, they're half my age, are out there playing great golf. But it really did. The sound of the crowd, the enthusiasm, Bryson walking to the 6th, the gladiator entering the Coliseum, all that shit worked.
Starting point is 00:09:40 set me on fire. I mean, did you guys get to see the Saturday first part of the round? It was unbelievable. It was, and you got to give props to golf for being the first sport to come back and
Starting point is 00:09:56 now really giving us the first crowd moment. I know there were crowds at the Super Bowl and the championship games, but man, it didn't feel like it. You just couldn't really pick up the energy because the way it was spaced out. That crowd together around sixth T, coupled with Bryson's just, like, dufous hands over his head.
Starting point is 00:10:16 I mean, iconic. Just make it the new logo, you know? But it was so great. It felt like it just, for me, it engendered this sense of optimism that was like light at the end of the tunnel. We're almost there. Everybody keeps staying safe. Mask up.
Starting point is 00:10:33 Go get the vaccine. But we are going to get to be fans of whatever you love. And in this case, it's gall. live and in person before the end of the summer, and I can't wait for it. Yeah, get in on this. Get it on this, Mayo. Get it on this sap fest.
Starting point is 00:10:50 I can't. I want to go to a tournament that's 20 minutes from my front door, and now it's gone. I can't do it this year. I got to wait for like, yeah, put it this way. 2024 President's Cup, Montreal. Let's all go to that.
Starting point is 00:11:05 That's going to be fucking amazing. We're in. Nate and I are in. But Mayo, did you get to see Saturday? Like, what was your experience with it? So I have a pretty similar routine every Saturday and Sunday. I got two kids, they're both under two. So I take them for a two hour long walk to give my wife a break from it.
Starting point is 00:11:21 So I just streamed the radio and the PGA Tour Serious broadcast from the app for those two hours. And it's usually right around right after the leaders get onto the course, somewhere around like two o'clock every single time. It's, you know, like clockwork at this point. You've got to keep them in a routine. So I heard it both days. And then I ended up going back and watching it after the day. the fact. But hearing the radio broadcast of it, they linger on it a little bit more. And you can
Starting point is 00:11:45 like hear people in the crowd. They're getting fired up. I'm walking around, like pushing the kids they're asleep. I'm like, it's going to be fucking incredible. And to hear someone describe, like, listening to Spee's Hole and One on the radio was awesome. And then they cut to commercial and I got to hear like Mike Stone jams about golf, which are maybe I thought they were parody songs. Turns out they're not parody songs. But I just want to talk to that guy for like eight hours now. But The radio broadcast is severely underrated. Yeah, it is. The TV broadcast is getting better at showing guys.
Starting point is 00:12:17 And honestly, their audience isn't me for the Sunday broadcast. It's my dad that they want to get to tune in. But when you listen to the radio, you get to hear more of what's going on on the course. Like, at the Genesis, I think it was Mark Zakino, who was following around Max Homa. And it sounded like Mark Zekino had a thousand dollars bet on Max Homa. How excited he was getting. every single shot, like he was going to win a million bucks. It was, it's just a different vibe that you get.
Starting point is 00:12:45 And I actually kind of prefer the radio broadcast, but it's always just better to see what's going on. Like, you can watch without sound and play it at the same time. But experiencing the Bryson drives that way, them describing the crowd and like, oh, they've talked him into it. And like, that's actually what happened it felt like. Yeah. So it very much on Sunday had major vibes.
Starting point is 00:13:07 And it was a combination of how tough. Hill was playing. You know, we got Bay Hill at its sort of very best in terms of the challenge that it could present because of the wind. I think the field averaged over 75 for the rounds on Sunday. And, you know, the combination of the green speeds, the rough, Bryson, you know, a couple of superlatives, he's the only guy on Sunday that was one bogey or less on the day. so very deserving winner.
Starting point is 00:13:40 But we got great theater out of Lee Westwood, another old guy, another 47-year-old dude out here on the Peugeeerate tour. We love that. And by this point, Lee Westwood, we have a real, at least I do, a real soft spot in my heart for him, you know, the only guy with the second place, you know, in the lead going into a Sunday, the 90s, the 2000s, the 2000s, and now the 2020s, that's pretty effing good. It just doesn't have a lot of wins to show for it.
Starting point is 00:14:18 But there was a lot of theater. It was dramatic. Again, it felt like major golf to me, Nate, Dogg. I agree. Westwood could have won this golf tournament. He was first T to Green, but he was 37th in putting, and he missed putts all day on Sunday that he should have knocked down. He lost 1.2 strokes in the final round.
Starting point is 00:14:37 he missed an 8 foot 10 inch put on two, an 8 footer on three that ended up in a bogey, a 12 footer on four, a 9 footer on 5, 8 foot 8 inches on 14. He makes that great 19 footer for par on 15 to stay sort of in it. But then misses the 5 foot 11, almost 6 footer on 16, he just, he had a lot of chances. These were makeable. I was disappointed because he really could have overtaken Bryson. So essentially he putted like Tyrell Hatton did for every round. Exactly.
Starting point is 00:15:13 Exactly. What a wild week he had, bookend 77s. Well, it's okay when he's the player's champion. I think there is a new stat that Pat's going to have to factor in as he looks at who he's going to pick. And that is, especially if he's doing some live betting stuff, anytime Bryson goes to the range on Saturday night, he's going to win. Like, it may be his theater at this point, but it is working. And he came off after winning. You know, he thanked his sponsors like it was a NASCAR race.
Starting point is 00:15:43 I love it. Ricky Bobby. Yeah. But he also, speaking of Westwood, just to tie it up, house, he sent a really gracious Instagram post yesterday just saying, you know, I know the dust is settled, but I just want to compliment Lee Westwood. I learned a lot watching him.
Starting point is 00:15:58 I was so impressed with how he played. Like, he didn't need to do that. Nobody told him to do that. He's this crazy, just like, you know, he's just a conundrum for me, because half the stuff he does I hate and half the stuff he does I love. I love what he did on the sixth hole this week. It was awesome. And he's just so much fun to watch in that way. Half the time you want to punch him, half the time you want to hug him. It's the Bryson Enigma, right, Mayo? I love everything Bryson does. Like all the goofy shit he does
Starting point is 00:16:27 on like Twitch, all the pre-packaged like Instagram getting out of Bentley's and all that stuff. I just eat it all up. I think it's fantastic. And I love the hate. that he spurs. It's the same reason I love Patrick Reed. I love the hate. Like, these are the guys in golf that we need to, like, listen, all I want to do is turn every sport into early 90s wrestling. That's it. So I need my villains that I can root for. Well, everyone else roots against them. And it's funny because, again, just go back to Bryson and Spieth in this regard. Like, they're the same player, but the opposite side of the coin. It's really strange to me. Like, like I said, they're unpredictable in certain ways, but they're unpredictable in the exact opposite.
Starting point is 00:17:06 way, except for making these like 50 foot putts. They both do that. Like, that's a magic beans type thing that they have. I don't know how they do it. Well, I want to pick up on that, that villain beat for just one observation, which is, what is with these rulings, the drops that that Bryson gets? Like, let's stop calling the PGA tour rules officials. These guys are like concierges.
Starting point is 00:17:27 These are like the course concierge. Like, could you please call over the concierge? I would like to move my ball from one place to another. concierge, could you please help me with this? And the concierge is, oh, of course, of course, Mr. DeCambeau, let's move it six inches to where you would, is this, does this feel right to you, sir? Oh, yes, this feels wonderful. Okay, go ahead and put away.
Starting point is 00:17:49 I mean, seriously, what is going on out there? If they're going to let you do it, why wouldn't you do it? That's a fact. That's exactly the point. And it's the great point. Like, they're just there to accommodate the players doing whatever they want. they give it the imprimatur of permissible behavior. The thing is, if the three of us are playing golf and any one of us finds ourselves in that
Starting point is 00:18:13 predicament, we're like, sorry, bro, you're fucked. Go ahead. You got to chip it. Good luck. But how guys who are not in the top 20 or not in the featured groups on TV do not feel this way about rules officials. They feel quite the opposite. They feel like the rules are, they feel like the way.
Starting point is 00:18:32 Donovan Mitchell and Gobert feel the refs treat the Utah Jazz. Oh, second class citizen treatment out there. Yeah. And so I think that's the issue is consistency and, you know, clear definition. I mean, look, speaking of rules, I mean, we'll talk about it when we get to, when we get to the players this week. But now we're, now we're starting to throw in internal out of bounds just to prevent some fun from happening.
Starting point is 00:19:01 hitting it 98 miles right into the driving range in the parking lot is not OB, but blasting it left of the lake on six into the third fairway, turns out is OB at API. So they're starting to have to implement on-course weird rules that are clearly framed for some golfers and not for others. Dumb, right, Mayo? You know you're doing something well when people have to adjust the rules for you? Like, well, besides, I mean, this is what happening like with Bryson,
Starting point is 00:19:31 a lot of the time now. And people that are just, you see the rule book in front of you. And I feel like Bryson has read this rule book front to cover. And he has memorized everything. He ever played monopoly with people or whatever board game and they just know all the rules and they're just going to flank you with some sort of weird technicality?
Starting point is 00:19:48 It's like, oh, that's not illegal by the rules. You can't do it. Bryson's kind of like that type of guy. But before that, like, no one had a problem. Like, people thought it was funny when Phil took a drop from the middle of a bush at WGC, Mexico. But that's Phil being Phil. that's all the breaks. Is this what you're talking about, Nate? Like if Mark Hubbard tried to do that, it would be one thing. But if Phil tries to do it, it's fine. Well, I think what we've seen with
Starting point is 00:20:10 Bryson is he's been working the refs for over a year. You remember him back at Jack's event when he was trying to get the rules official to allow him to move it from that iron fence. And remember he jumped over the iron fence and then he was trying, you know, and then he had the ant, the ant ruling later on. The fire ants. And was all angry with the, so I, He's been working the refs for moments like this for a long time. And, you know, he's Pat Riley of golf officiating workover, I guess. Okay, so we have our villain. Let's go over to Speeth Island for a minute.
Starting point is 00:20:48 Can we go over there? I mean, he's getting close, Nate, dog. He is extraordinarily close. We have to love what we're seeing from him. We just need a Sunday. I mean, the whole knock on him until five weeks ago, was, well, he can't play the weekend. Well, his Saturdays have been
Starting point is 00:21:05 fucking awesome, the best. We have outdoor pool parties on Jordan Speeth Island. We open up all the doors and windows. People hang out. It's the best. We just have to get him to carry it over into Sunday.
Starting point is 00:21:17 And he is so close. I just, House, Pat, he's going to win the Masters, right? He's going to win the Masters. It feels that way, which is shocking to say, I actually think he might win the Masters. matchplay. Interesting.
Starting point is 00:21:32 Die course. Anyone can kind of compete there. Like, you see guys like Kisner, like you don't need to be the most accurate. So we saw Bubba go there and win. You see, Rahm and DJ end up in the finals. It's almost a course where anyone can kind of play. And it doesn't seem like driving. It can be the most essential thing there, but it's not entirely necessary that if you just run into hot irons and a hot putter, which he's got right now.
Starting point is 00:21:53 And the driving's been weirdly good. So if anyone knows me, they know about fantasynational.com. You slash mayo, you get yourself a discount on that. And you can go a monthly membership goes players through Masters, which is probably the best time you can ever do it. But one of the things I brought up last week of why he wasn't dead in the water at a place where driving was so essential is that the driving has come back around. He gained off the tea at Pebble. He gained off the tea against the field at Riviera. He barely lost last week. And although you see him spray it everywhere, he wasn't in the water all that much. And that was good enough against this field last week at API.
Starting point is 00:22:27 So we talk about certain guys like Connors and Ben Ann and Keegan Bradley. If they could just put zero for the week, no positive, no negative, just zero. They're going to win some golf tournaments when it comes down to it. Justin Thomas might be the ultimate example of this. He wins tournaments while losing strokes putting. His T degree is so good. That Spieth right now is in this situation where if he can just be zero off the T and not minus four, he's going to win multiple tournaments.
Starting point is 00:22:55 Quick side note, Kagan Bradley shot plus six. on Sunday and still finish T10 if you want to know how hard it was out there. But, I mean, House, I just want to hear from you. Do you believe in Jordan Speath now? Not only do I believe in him. Yes. I'm going to ask you two guys to talk me out of playing him as my one and done this week. Not next week. I got you. I got you on this one right now. I feel relief. That's a, it's a relief. Talk me out of it. I used Spief last week in the one and done. So that was good news for me. I was hoping to get the win out of them.
Starting point is 00:23:29 But now you just said it. You believe in Jordan's beef. I mean, Nate always believes in Jordan's beat. Even when he was dog shit, people are just all over. And then you have me, and I've been a pretty big speed hater for a long time. But just seeing this come around and seeing the numbers start to match up, it makes a lot of sense that he's playing this well, once again, knowing what his upside talent level is. But everyone's back in now. There are no more detractors, which means miscut this week at the players.
Starting point is 00:23:54 Okay. Well, he's missed the cut four out of the last five times. at the players. The counterfactual, though, is he's finishing in the top five on tour three of the last four events he's played. I did watch live from last night because, you know, the golf channel has to treat this event as though it's a quasi-major. So they're all convened down there in Pontavidra.
Starting point is 00:24:23 And it actually was a good show. I mean, I enjoy live from anyways. I think it really does achieve the desired effect, which is to take an event and kind of elevated. It gives it a little bit of heft. And Brandel and Justin Leonard did a little segment on Speath. And Justin Leonard had a couple factuals that were, you know,
Starting point is 00:24:47 I don't know who Justin Ray's replacement at the Golf Channel is, but the dude's doing a good work or the young lady. I mean, whoever it may be. there was a factoid that they dropped about how awful, God awful, Jordan Speeth has been between 75 and 125 yards this season. He is on from from 75 to 100 and from 100 to 125 yards. His way to just suck.
Starting point is 00:25:15 Over 200 place in both of those stats. He is not in the top 200 on tour in either one. of those categories. And I think those shots matter at this venue. Well, we saw a bunch of conversations this week, last week, even in Phoenix, Pat, where he and Michael, they're overthinking these wedge shots. I mean, we are getting great catty player conversations, but it's always Michael going, no, no, Jordan, you need more. And Jordan's like, no, no, I think I'm going to absolutely just toast this sand wedge. And he puts it in the front left bunker every time. He just doesn't seem to be dialed in to his distances. Do you agree?
Starting point is 00:25:59 I do, but maybe he's playing the game where he knows he's going to chip in from the bunker every 50% of the time. That's just a part of his plan. I'm looking at it right now because one of the things I hate about stats, especially when you're like, oh, during the 2020, 2020, 2021 season, he's X. Well, I mean, who really cares about what speed did in October? To be perfectly honest. And all that gets lumped in. So I sort of it down to the past 24 rounds. In this field in particular, at the players of 154, he's 154th from 100 to 125 yards over the past 24 rounds. But from 150 to 200, he's like top 5 in the field. What the hell?
Starting point is 00:26:40 So which of those shots? Now, I know you've run the analytics. And let's go ahead and start sliding into the preview of the players. I do want to make sure as we slide into this that we talk about. Rory because Rory speaking of terrible wed shots, Rory is about to hurt my feelings. I mean, I keep saying nice things about Rory and it keeps taking a shit in a bag and sending it to my house. Strangely, Rory from like that 100 to 125 range has actually been really good recently.
Starting point is 00:27:08 It's just, it's like his old school range of like 125 to 200 where he would just dominate, that's where he's been having problems now. He's just never that close to the hole anymore. He's not, he's not the proximity to the hole is bad. And he seems lost. He was frustrated when he walked off the golf course on Sunday. He was. It's a focus issue more than anything because he's turning in great rounds.
Starting point is 00:27:30 He is. But when you say focus in the fall, the thing that he said that was keeping him, he thought, from performing the way he performed earlier in the year was the lack of crowds. And you know what I'm building you up to for this week, baby. The electricity is back. So what the hell's going on? It just was back last week for the first time. And guess what?
Starting point is 00:27:52 He was never in that lead group. You know where the electricity was? It was around Bryson and Jordan. So with more fans back this week, hopefully it'll extend. I mean, I think it's just a focus issue. The game is all there. He needs to string four rounds together. Can we just please not leave API without mentioning the Jazz, Jazz, Jen Watanon?
Starting point is 00:28:13 That's your guy! Jazz hands! Jazz hands put it right on you. The golf gods always come for the official world golf ranking manipulators. he hits the hole in one on Saturday, and on Sunday he's plus 12. So just you can never, jazz was great. He had his moment in the sun, but the golf, the golf gods are always watching. Didn't he still finish top 30 with that? I think maybe he did, but he still shot plus 12.
Starting point is 00:28:38 It wasn't a fun day. Listen, it was tough sledding out there for jazz, but he was just edged by my boy, the Gim Reaper. He also had a very brutal Sunday. Tough day for Doug Gim. I love Leo. Watch out for Doug Gambian. He's good.
Starting point is 00:28:55 Okay. He's playing well right now. He really is. Speaking of ball strikers, right? That's a guy who has some class, who has some quality second shot, second approach shot kind of playing him. But I want to know from the Mayo Fantasy National
Starting point is 00:29:09 analytics angle, what are the key components of success as we walk up to this not fifth major situation this week? Strangely enough, for someone that just spends all day on Fantasy National trying to figure out what the path is going to be, the players doesn't really fit into any of these molds. It is truly the most unpredictable tournament of the year. And there's a whole bunch of factors for that. One, 17 holes have water on them. So Dustin Johnson makes two bad shots.
Starting point is 00:29:42 He misses the cut. It just happens to top guys every single. Actually, it doesn't happen to Dustin all that often. But top end guys just all of a sudden explode. I went back and I looked at the Draft King's scoring for like 2019. Obviously, there was no 2020 in 2018. When the year that Webb Simpson won this event, so he was $7,300 on draftings, I believe he was 80 to 1 to win that year. The top six guys on the leaderboard were like, when you play a Sturs and Scrubs lineup, the top six guys were all scrubs.
Starting point is 00:30:10 There was no good players at the very top. So the length of the course kind of brings everyone into play because it's not like someone's just going to go bomb and gouge TPC Sawgrass. It's Pete Dye. it's messing with everyone's minds. There's bunkers everywhere. There's tiny greens. There's runoff areas. Like, I always used to love Martin Kimer. Like, this is the second biggest bet I ever hit was Kimer 80 to 1. I had the utmost confidence in him that week. You've been playing well in Europe. No one had seen him over here, basically at all. And then you just follow along the European statute. You're like, all right, he's playing pretty well here. But at any spot where you can put
Starting point is 00:30:44 from off the green and not have to chip, Martin Kimer's good. Web Simpson's another player who's like that. He does have a good short game, but if you can get a putter in his hands from off the green, all of a sudden, he's a lot better too. So there's just so much blowup potential, and it really mitigates the one skill that separates all the top players from everything else, which is the off-the-tea-twork that they can all do, mixed with obviously the best irons, that iron play is going to be substantial. You're going to have to hit a lot of fairways, and where it's a club-down course, you're going to see some of these bigger drivers club down, and that's going to improve their accuracy. But it's just more of a level playing field when it comes to Sawgrass. So approach is a approach is a lot.
Starting point is 00:31:19 is going to be the biggest factor, but that doesn't really mean much because you still have to think like Brian Stewart this week, just to throw out a name as someone who can get super hot with the irons once every 12 tournaments. And it happens. And from like 125 to 150, he's going to find himself in that range where he doesn't normally find himself at most courses, that if he just hits his irons and puts well for the week, like, he could come sixth at this tournament. And you'd be like, the hell is going on here. I think he did it at Quail Hollow, the year that Justin Thomas won the PGA championship. And like, other than that, he's like Mr. Miscut at majors.
Starting point is 00:31:57 Like, it just those type of guys will pop up when Rory won. It was Furek and Eddie Pepperell and Johnny Vegas. Those guys have no correlation to one another at all. So it's just whoever everyone likes this week, don't take them and take the guy no one's talking about. Well, speaking of guys no one's talking about, we do have 30. first time players, and that's a function of not having the tournament played all the way through last year. There's a 154 player field, or I don't know if it dropped down to 153 because Brooks dropped out. But 31 first timers, including like super quality golfers, like Colin Moracawa, like Victor Hovlin, the homie Homa.
Starting point is 00:32:43 I can't believe this is the homie homas first time out there, Nate Dogg. Scotty Shephler, Joaquin Neiman, and Will Zollatoris, everybody's favorite analytic star course. Nate Dog, what do you think?
Starting point is 00:32:56 Is there any chance for a first-timer to come out and win this thing? Is there any precedent for that? Siwu Kim. I think there is precedent for it. I mean, I'm really still sitting
Starting point is 00:33:07 with Pat's thoughts on basically there being no correlation because a lot of times we look coming into golf tournaments that guys who are in form. And what do you do with a guy like Victor Hovland, who last week, House, we were convinced after his recent form that he was going to play great
Starting point is 00:33:21 last week. And on the weekend, he shot 77 and 78. So he's one of those guys that I don't even know how to touch a guy like that based on what we're coming into. There's a few people further down the board who would be first timers. I love the way Christiana Zuddin Hood is playing. Shot a first round 65 here last year before it was canceled. He was solo seventh last week at API. You can't not love the story, the continuing great story of Chris Kirk, who was T-8th last week. And then, like you said, first-timer is Sheffler and Neiman's sitting there
Starting point is 00:33:54 at 50 to 1. Boy, those look like guys who they're due. And Sheffler's going to win a golf tournament at some point. Pat, where do you come out on Sheffler right now? I like Sheffler. So there's a whole bunch of these guys and we kind of group, and they seem to be grouped together in either pairs
Starting point is 00:34:10 or they're a trio. Like, Neiman, I'm sorry, Neiman's sort of on an island of his own where he's in between the top tier and this kind of like middle tier of burgeoning stars. Maybe even throw him in with Sung Jay because everyone just forgets how young Sungay is all the time. And when we talk about Morikawa and Hovlin, like those are the two. Matthew Wolf always gets thrown in there because of the major performances. He's already won on tour.
Starting point is 00:34:32 So like those three guys are on an island by themselves. Sungay and Neiman lives somewhere in the middle because they've had a ton of success on tour. And people, but they didn't go to college. They came out so early that I think people forget that they're like, 22. And then you have Zalotaurus and Schaeffler. And now, I mean, my guy, Doug Gibb, he's on like the next year down with Justin Seh, once he starts getting playing full time on tour. But there's all these guys like Bobby McIntyre is another one coming over from Europe. We're going to see Gregor Higo at some point come over a South African who's actually really good on the
Starting point is 00:35:04 European tour that there's all these young players and we kind of treat them differently. If they have a good week, they get vaulted up. Sheplehr's kind of dropped down, which is strange because he hadn't got to win. You know, well, he has the city. that every time he gets into contention on Sunday, they finally show him on TV and he puts it OB. That's his move every single time. It's kind of crazy. And then like we even forget about certain guys like Cam Smith. Like Cam Smith has had seven of eight awesome rounds. He couldn't make a put in the final round to Riviera. And he had one of the worst rounds ever at the third round at the WGC. But to go back to the Hovlin point, it's funny because you say, yeah, he had the bad weekend.
Starting point is 00:35:42 We all saw that. Would we still think that he was in good form if he was. missed the cut on the number and we didn't have to see him play on the weekend. Yeah, we'd be thinking about him the same way we're thinking about Patrick Reed, who did exactly that. I mean, Patrick Reed, MC Patrick absolutely stuck me. I didn't even confess on this week's pod. Nate, what we talked through, we did the analysis of who was I going to put in the Mayo Cup, in the one and done that named after our guest this week, he has this excellent
Starting point is 00:36:16 one and done tournament going right now. How many entrance, Mayo? There is 3,300. And here's some good news for you, House, and myself included in this. For all the people that aren't doing so well, there might be a new one popping up here for major season. Oh, great. Just another way. Well, obviously, I will double down. That is just what I needed saying. Yeah, but, you know, we, I moved off of, you talked me out of Bryson, and we decided that. that we'd save Bryson for a future one and done moment, something WGC or major to get the bang for the buck. So then we kind of settled on Hovland,
Starting point is 00:36:56 and then at the very last minute, I pivoted Nate and played Patrick. I played MC Patrick. Well, it makes me feel better. Do you wish you played Fitzpatrick? Because I talked you out of Fitzpatrick. I mean, I was very open about the fact that he was going to make me look bad, but I really didn't think he had a chance to win last week.
Starting point is 00:37:16 world was on Fitzpatrick and he finished tied for 10th, which was, which is fine. And a way, I do, you know, I will, I'll never play Matthew Fitzpatrick again. So, you know, in that respect, I probably would have, it would have been, uh, sensible to have played him, um, in, in this moment. But, uh, you know, looking at this tournament coming up, I'm feeling, uh, a bit lost. I mean, Hoblin is hard. still available. One of the things that is out there, speaking of friends of the pod, Jason Sobel in his write-up this week on the Action Network made the observation that over the last 10 years, so the past decade
Starting point is 00:38:01 that this tournament was competed, the winner of the players has finished no worse than tied for 22nd place. So if you go matters in the in the week that met, yes, form matters exactly right. And lots of guys over that period looking at the three tournaments leading up to the players have really stellar and exemplary play.
Starting point is 00:38:30 I mean, Rory was on fire coming into the players in 2019. His three previous results were sixth, second, and fourth. Webb when he won in 2018, 21st, 5th, and 20th. Now, Siwu, a little bit of an aberration,
Starting point is 00:38:47 and he's the one that's, that this really is like the Siwu standard when you're talking about 22nd or better in the week leading up. He was 22nd in the tournament he played before the players, and he missed the cut the week before that, and he withdrew the week before that. But that, hold on,
Starting point is 00:39:06 that is good Siwu Kim, him leading for him. Like, that's like the formula. Yeah. That's a great point. And he withdrew it, API, too. So we're in good hands here. I just feel, look, the notes I'm getting from the course are that it is in the best shape
Starting point is 00:39:21 people have ever seen. It's just pristine this week. And, you know, we are going to be back not fully with fans, but this is, the fans here are going to be as loud or better than last week for sure. This feels like a prestigious tournament with a prestigious winner this week. And so as much as I want to go down the list and go to some of the first-timer guys who you wouldn't normally pick, and I listed a few, I still think House we got a cluster around some of the more sort of top-tier players. Somebody's going to come in and win this who we know. I don't think we're going to be too surprised.
Starting point is 00:40:00 I mean, falling past the 50-to-one odds seems like you're making a bad decision if you're trying to pick the winner. Oh, Nate. Nate, Nate, Nate, Nate, Nate. Come on now. You know how much money I lose on these bums at the back end of the field every single week. I could play them top 20. I could play them top 30. You give me outright winner odds at 500 to 1. You give me someone like Andrew Landry. I'm good to go. Fucking stay off Mark Hubbard this week. Let me tell you that. House, who are we going to, like, let's go. Who are we, who are we pulling this week? So I want you guys now to talk me out of another guy.
Starting point is 00:40:37 who has been a perpetual heartbreaker for me, and that is Tommy Fleetwood. That's the reaction that I want. That's the kind of reaction I love. Now, tell me why you immediately burst into laughter when I say Tommy Fleetwood. Listen, Tommy has a good chance at winning. He has been picking up a whole lot of steam.
Starting point is 00:41:03 So there's two players, and it's funny how you can kind of match daily fantasy to the gambling market a lot, that there are certain players that are just popular, no matter what they do, they play poorly. Maybe you see a little bit of a decrease, but everyone just wants them to do well. Fleetwood is one, Xander is the other. Every single week, whatever you project them for, they're just 10% over that. Like, oh, I think Tommy Fleetwood will be like 20% owned.
Starting point is 00:41:26 Like, no, he's 40% owned. Simmons is that way. That's true. Inexplicably all over Tommy Fleetwood. Simmons loves Fleetwood. Because the game is so enticing. When it goes well, you're like, oh, Tommy just shot 63 at Shinnecock. All right.
Starting point is 00:41:41 And then Saturday Fleetwood shows up and shoot 76. And this time it was actually the reverse. He had a nice Saturday and it finally had a bad Sunday. It used to be what Ricky would do for years where it'd be round one, round two. Ricky's in it. Oh, good. He shot 78 on Saturday. And then he'd shoot like 65 on Sundays.
Starting point is 00:41:56 Like, oh, no, it was just one bad round. He'll figure it out. And it turns out he never does. Fleetwood could most definitely win this tournament for sure. But I can't envision a scenario where I'm putting my hard-earned money, which I do not make a lot of. So it means a lot to me when I lose it every single week, to walk up to the counter or go on my app and bet Tommy Fleetwood and not bet Tirol Hat, who's a far better player. Well, I like that because Hatton certainly fits inside of that top
Starting point is 00:42:23 22nd category. He showed us something last week, except for Thursday and Sunday, but he showed us something. Well, the Saturday that he showed us, in fact, Pat Mayo and I in the preparation for this week's show, had an exchange, a text exchange, and Mayo shared with me that he jumped all over Tyrell Hatton
Starting point is 00:42:44 to win the API, right? He got you. 750 to 1 after round 1. I just looked at the numbers. Like off the tee, he was fine on Thursday. Approach game? Fine.
Starting point is 00:42:58 Chipping, fine. He lost four strokes putting in round one. Like, that's the ultimate in-play move. Just find the guy who bled all the strokes in one. round. Be like, well, Hatton's one of the premier putters in the world, and he just had the worst putting round of his career. I think he'll figure it out. And he did for two days, not substantially so. And then it all reverted back on Sunday. But looking like last week, he finished 21st. He was third Tita Green. So let's get at who your heavy lean is this week, Pat Mayo.
Starting point is 00:43:24 So I will be betting Hatton and Reed. I just think those numbers are wrong based on their win equity versus the rest of the field. And sometimes that's what you need to do in these circumstances, where I don't want to take anyone from the top because I think this is a crapshoot tournament, and that's not to say that Rom or Dustin or Zander or whoever is going to win, but one 10-to-one bet gives me 3.30-to-one bets. And I think just kind of spreading your money,
Starting point is 00:43:48 allocating your money around for deeper odds for top-tier players. It's the same reason that I bet more a cow with the WGC. It's like, oh, here's the number six player in the world. He's 45 to 1. That makes no sense. Let's just bet him. And Reed in Hatton, their win rates worldwide, or even just on the PGA tour. I mean, Hatton does most of his damage overseas, but he did win API.
Starting point is 00:44:08 We've seen him pop up in these tournaments that his win rate over the past year is like 13% or something like that. It's nuts compared to everyone else where someone like Fienow and Zander people love to bet on, but they never end up cashing. Like if you finally hit a Tony Fenow win, like you're down still half your money for the amount of times that people bet on Tony Fee now and Zander Shoffley. Great players, but there is something when it comes winning time that Reed and Hatton have. And a lot of it is just putting related that When their putter is going well, Webb is the same way. When the putter is going well, it's really good.
Starting point is 00:44:40 They're gaining like six, seven strokes on the field. And everyone's putter can go bad. Dustin lost 10 strokes putting at the WGC. That's never going to happen again in the rest of his career more than likely. So when I'm thinking about the 10 to 1 guys, the 12 to 1 guys, I love them, but I'm just not betting them. I think where I'm going to start my card beyond those two guys and really try to keep it small, Can't Lay and Morikawa. So this is why I wanted to throw it to you guys, because I've been making it.
Starting point is 00:45:04 this comparison for like two, three weeks now. And Nate and House, I want to get your thoughts on it. Hovlin's upside is Rory. That's whose game he reminds me of the most. Once he figures out the short game, just like Rory did when he was young and he turned into a great player, Dustin, too. They figured out the putting. They figured up the short game. They were able to put it all together. But Tita Green and ball striking, he is such a monster with the distance that he has. Where Morikawa is already better Stenson. Like, that's his upside. He's not going to drive at 350 yards. He's going to. He's going to going to drive it 310 in the middle of the fairway and have the best irons on the planet every third week. And that's what wins at the players. So I want to say something about
Starting point is 00:45:41 Hovland that is going to sound disparaging, but it is not. It is instead an aspect of his overall presentation that endears him to me. And it's very, very funny to me that you mention Rory because I have been calling Victor Hovel High Rory for about, I don't know, at least a full calendar year. As long as he's been prominent on there, he seriously looks to me. And again, this is not double gummy Rory. He does. That's literally it.
Starting point is 00:46:20 I think that Victor Havlin looks like he's had two edibles and is out there playing. But there's something about his comportment, the approach. He looks like Rory kind of to me, except for he looks like he's. high and he doesn't look he never looks like he's actually out there putting the pedal down it just looks like he's having a great round with his buddies and the two edibles are going to kick in at some point and he might beat everybody's ass because that's how effing good he is but i i just that they're that i don't know why that connection is there but i mean i'm on high rory i love high rory i got i got one more for you matthew wolf is bubble watson oh wow okay
Starting point is 00:47:04 Nate, what do you think about that one? Oh, I don't know that I can. I mean, that would imply, A, he's horse for a couple courses. Which we've seen. Yeah. I mean, I, look, Matthew Wolf is not playing this week, and I'm worried about him. In the same way, I'm worried about Kepka. That, you know, you got a swing that just because of its construction makes the guy swinging it prone to injury.
Starting point is 00:47:33 I want to also mention the Morikawa thing. I want to kind of run out that ground ball. He is, while this is his sort of tournament debut, the first time he'll be able to play this. He played last year in the first round. He shot four under on Thursday. And I do think he's a guy that is a great fit for what this tournament, you know, kind of requires.
Starting point is 00:47:58 But how he hasn't had a lot of back-to-back super strong performances. Now, he talked about this. the sort of mental letdown after the PGA, and we've heard about that from other first-time winners before. But do we think he is a guy like the other top 10 in the world who can actually show up and fight for the win every week? I, so Mayo says yes. Okay. We just need to see it.
Starting point is 00:48:22 Yeah, that's it. Why do you say yes, Mayo? I just, when you have that, it's almost like Justin Thomas in a way, where when you have the, like, there's only so many players, the world whose irons get to a level where they're just sharp shooting. It's like classic Rory would do it like twice a year. That's why he'd win by eight strokes. It's like everything else he does normally well. And then all of a sudden the irons are like, oh my God, he's putting everything to two feet. Morikawa is just one of those guys. Not to say that he is going to do it this week,
Starting point is 00:48:51 but he does it on the most consistent basis of any player over the past 18 months. So I'm just going to roll with that. Okay. I'm fine with it. I want to make sure. So I'm going to join you, you, Patrick in the Reed play. It looks like he's available around 40 to 1 to win. There is obviously some pricing going on here that takes into account what he did by missing the cut at Bay Hill and sticking me right in the rear end with that. But like, you know, his short game, like what we saw out of him at Torrey in terms of touch is just incredible.
Starting point is 00:49:33 Like with that level of short game, then he's definitely in contention if he can keep it in the ballpark at Sawgrass, right? I think so. And you never know. You're going to know which Patrick Reed is going to show up like nine holes through Thursday. Like, is it going to be bad Patrick Reed or good Patrick Reed? And he's, and that's why you get for a guy who wins approximately, I think it's like one every 16, 17 tournaments. He is the only one of these winners that we get at great odds. Like if you're only bet on golf, all.
Starting point is 00:50:03 year was you took $100 and you just bet it on Patrick Reed every single time he played over the past four years, you would be up a lot of money because he is inconsistent. So these miscuts pushed down his odds. And people hate his guts, so no one likes to bet on him. So they have to give you better odds to entice people to bet on them. It's almost like when you see, you know, when the line goes up to minus three and a half for minus three because all the money is coming in on that side in a football game, it's the reverse for Patrick Reed. They have to get, they're begging you to bet on him. They have to give you 40 to 1. So he's always fun in that regard. But the only correlation I actually found. And it might just be anecdotal because of the field strength at some
Starting point is 00:50:41 of these places. But five of the past 10 Wyndham Championship winners have also won at Sawgrass. And Reed, and Reid's won the Wyndham. He's a windom guy. Webb's a Wyndham guy. Siwu Kim. Seawu one. Yeah. Sergio Stenson and Davis loved the third. Oh, wow. Okay. Well, Nate, I want to talk about. a guy that you're a big fan of and is a frequent topic on this podcast. And he's available at odds that are not typically Justin Thomas odds. I see him right now at 20 to 1, 19 to 1. What do you think is going on with JT? Now, we saw a stretch of really bad play out of him that seemed to be attributable to the passing of his grandfather and, you know, some reaction that he had
Starting point is 00:51:31 to Tiger's car accident is Justin Thomas, nobody has more birdies over, you know, the last half decade at Sawgrass than Justin Thomas. What's your JT radar showing you right now? Well, I think this is the best opportunity to bet Justin Thomas you're probably ever going to have until his career is done because the first few months of this year have been brutal for him.
Starting point is 00:51:54 He had the comments in Hawaii that got him into hot water and he spent a lot of time dealing with that, losing sponsors, his grandfather passed, he had the tiger. I mean, this is as low as we're going to see him. And by the way, he's still striking the ball pretty good. So I think just as Pat said, you know, you're seeing Patrick Reed get pushed down. There's a lot of people not thinking about Justin Thomas.
Starting point is 00:52:19 Now, at 20 to 1, it's not a great deal. But, you know, this is one of the top five, probably top three golfers in the world. It's not often you get 21 on a guy like, that at a tournament that he has not won in a moment in which he's pretty hungry for a win. The most bet on golfer this week, Justin Thomas. Okay. So the public, get the fuck out of it. Okay. I'm out. I mean, his his form line, his trend line was 35th, 11th, miscutt, and third. Yeah. So he's outside of the magic, you know, 22, the CW bar that we established that Sobel had put out there over the last 20.
Starting point is 00:53:00 years. Well, I need you guys to help me on and one and done. I already burned Patrick Reed. I stayed away from Matthew Fitzpatrick last week. Mayo, is this Matthew Fitzpatrick week? Is this a good week to play them? It's funny. There's a few guys like that that everyone loved last week and they didn't have good weeks, but maybe some of it was weather related. Maybe they just had a bad event. Maybe they woke up on the wrong side of the bed, whatever it might be. And then all of a sudden, no one wants anything to do with Fitzpatrick, Molinari, or Sam Burns ever again, or Louis or Rose. Now, Rose looks like his back is actually a problem. Even before he put those three in the drink, like he was struggling to.
Starting point is 00:53:36 But like Louis, he probably just didn't feel like playing. Whoever knows with Louis. If his traveling bed didn't show up with him, then, you know, he wanted to take the week off. But Louis is interesting, more so from a daily fantasy perspective, I think, because he'll be so low-owned rather than an outright bet. But I think it's Molynari, your boy, Franklin onions to go look at it. Frankie onions. Okay.
Starting point is 00:53:59 So he has a bad week at bay. whatever. He has three top tens in five starts in 2021. He's had two bad rounds the past three years at the players. But in the three years before that, he was top seven each of those years. Like, this feels like it could really be a Moly Nari course still. And now no one wants to play him on in daily fantasy. No one wants, I think he's 125 to 1 or something. That's Chusty. I see him at 120 to 1. That is absolutely lovely. Two guys that we will recommend to all the Eagle enthusiasts out there. Chris Kirk, if we're looking for somebody in form,
Starting point is 00:54:34 had a great Sunday. We saw him a little bit on the broadcast. And so, you know, and he's a great story. Top tens at the Sony and last week at the API, three other top 20s inside of his last seven starts. So, you know, Chris Kirk down the board a little bit, 140 to one, odds-wise, draft king's salary, fan dual salary in like the $7,000 class.
Starting point is 00:55:03 And then you cannot come to this golf tournament and not play Ian Poulter. I mean, you have to figure out a way to work. Ian Poulter in all of us, if he specializes in Pete die golf courses. It's not like there's anything about his form that we would say, oh, my God, you got to play. He finished top 30 at Bay Hill.
Starting point is 00:55:24 He had tied for 25th at the Masters. He finished inside the top 20. in commercials. Yes, with Justin Rose. Rose and Poulter. Tyfer first. But look, Poulter at this venue has the proven track record. So those are just, we've covered a whole bunch of guys, guys for folks to look at.
Starting point is 00:55:45 That's enough for everybody to build their lineups. I need a one and done for the Mayo Cup. Nate, help me. Did you burn Cantley? I did. I burned him at the Genesis. He's the play this week because I think, because I'm probably going to use Canley. Canley is just, I mean, I brought him up as I'm betting to win it 22 to 1, but he's just in form. This is a perfect tournament for him. And he was fire round one last year or two, along with
Starting point is 00:56:16 Morikawa, Hovlin, Bazaden out and Hadecchi, of course. But Can'tley has been used by like 60% of people already. So people just can't use him this week for that 2.7 million. And so, House, you did not. burn Hovlin last week. I did not. So I have Hovland. My eligible candidates, the guys I'm leaning towards. And one of the things we also know, and it's apparent from the last 10 winners of this golf tournament, it's guys who are
Starting point is 00:56:40 capable of winning majors. That's not a shocker. So Hovland, you know, I feel pretty comfortable. He checks the box. I wish I still had MC. Patrick. I mean, I, I'm disappointed that he burned me the way he did last week. So Hovland, it feels a little premature for JT. We want to see it one time out of JT?
Starting point is 00:57:04 I want you to save him. He's going to win a major this year. Okay. All right. I'm going to sit on JT. The other candidate, and you guys mayo audibly just busted out laughing as Tommy Fleetwood. Because I just thought I'm not going to save Fleetwood for a major.
Starting point is 00:57:19 You know what I mean? Why Fleetwood over someone like Sung Jay, who this is a perfect course for? Well, I burned Sung Jay. That would be why. I had him. I think I played him at the Sony. These are your choices.
Starting point is 00:57:33 Hatton, Hovland, Speath. But you guys said it's not Speeth time. I asked it the very early in the show about Speeith. Now you're back on him. I just told you I think he's going to win the Masters. Yeah. You should save him for there then.
Starting point is 00:57:48 I mean, I wouldn't listen to Mayo because you're competing with Mayo in this tournament, and he's probably going to tell you, he's going to be like, yeah, go with Fleawood. Mayo's on record. He's playing Cantlay. And I can't play Can't Lay. I have two teams, by the way.
Starting point is 00:58:00 I forgot about that. You were allowed to answer five entries. I only did one as a man of integrity. Put the big boy pants on. Who are you picking? Hovland. I'm going to play Hovlin this week. How about this for you?
Starting point is 00:58:14 Because where the players is so unpredictable, I think it is a week just to take someone. You could even go more down the list here, I think, in terms of like a top 20 type player in the world to really get away from the understom. and you need to catch up, so you've got to start taking some swings. I don't think anyone's going to use John Rob. And I don't like his odds to win, but if all of those top guys, I like Rom the best.
Starting point is 00:58:35 He got burned by Rom in the worst possible way. I used him at the concession. And that's why no one's using him this time, because he couldn't. That was my thesis. So you know what I'll do? Matt Fitzpatrick is in the top 20. So I'll save my guy, Hovland. I'll save High Rory and his edibles.
Starting point is 00:58:55 And I'm going to play and say, well, I honestly think Hovland is for a WGC or a major. That's the caliber of play. I just find the situation for him that's right. I mean, look, Hovelin at Kiowa makes sense to me.
Starting point is 00:59:11 You save DJ, you save Bryson, you save JT, and you save in Jordan. That's your major pool. I mean, you got, this is it. This is as close to a major as it could be. For the money, it's absolutely right. I just don't want you to save Havelin for too much longer.
Starting point is 00:59:27 Okay. All right. And I don't think you would ever get Dustin at lower ownership in that tournament either. Just tell me whether or not DJ is going to give a fuck this week. Can you please tell me that? That I can't. I know that I don't think that he went to the Walter Gretzky funeral because if he came to Canada for it, he wouldn't be able to play this week. Oh, it's a great point.
Starting point is 00:59:48 He would have to quarantine. Victor's your guy. Victor's your guy. I'm off DJ. I'm on Hovlin. All right, boys. I mean, you know, we hit a lot of names out there. Funny enough, none of us think that Bryson's going to repeat, huh? No.
Starting point is 01:00:02 Just like last week. Yeah. Great. Can I ask one more question to the two of you guys? So the name I didn't bring up that I actually do like because he's been destroying Pete die courses is the Mexican Alan Iverson, Abraham Answer. He's been excellent. But here are two names, Nate, because you've been out there seeing these guys. why can't Russell Henley or Kevin Kna win the players?
Starting point is 01:00:24 Those are really good questions. Kevin Nah just has to be hot with the putter and he's always got a chance. And Russell Henley should have had the same odds as Victor Hovlin this week, except his form of late hasn't been quite what it was the beginning part of the year. Russell Henley all the way down it, I mean, what do you guys have him at? Odds wise. 100. 100, right?
Starting point is 01:00:45 He's a very, very, very interesting top 10 bet this week. Well, somebody you guys should play him because I'm out. out on him. So that means he's definitely due. Henley is a guy I played out in California and he stuck it in me. So I'm off Henley. I'm sensing a trend here.
Starting point is 01:01:03 Well, you know, I can't You get shipped by the guys you bet. Well, it's not the betting. It's the one and done. Like, I'll bet these guys on the weekend if there's a matchup that I like. You remember I said I would just waste my money on some of these like absolute gibonies from the down down on the list? Yes. Here's what. I don't know
Starting point is 01:01:21 odd you're seeing, but you might see like 400 to 1. J.T. Poston has won the Wyndham and come inside the top 10 his past two starts at the heritage, T20 and his only ever start at the players. And his putter is smoke show right now. If his wedges show up, he could put his way to a victory. So that, that for sure. So that's where you get value playing a top 10. Go hunt a top 10. He's got to be between 8 to 1 and 12 to 1, J.T. Poston for a top 10, right? I think he's 12 to 1. I think he's 12 to 1 to become top 20 this week. Oh, that's spectacular. Okay, there we go.
Starting point is 01:01:55 I mean, there's our lock of the week. Eagle Enthusus, Par Saving Pals, Bertie Buddies, top 20, JT. Poston, don't use the whole mortgage payment. Maybe just use half of it. There's your stone cold, Fairway, rolling, lock of the week. It is the players championship. Pat Mayo, Nathan Hubbard. Thank you guys for coming on.
Starting point is 01:02:20 Yeah, thanks for having me. This is great. All right, you guys, everybody can find Pat Mayo where? At the PME on Twitter, the Pat Mayo Experience podcast, you get the audio, you get the video, and of course, fantasynational.com slash mayo to get yourself that monthly discount, five tournaments for the price of four, and it's super cheap anyway. If you gamble or play daily fantasy, you're probably going to want to use Fantasy National. I'm not going to lie to. I've got to do it. All right, boys, thank you very much. Everybody out there, There you have it. Lots of great names, great odds, great opportunities for return on investment. We will be back next week. We'll know who the players champion is and hopefully our wallets will be a tiny bit thicker. I don't know. Until then, let's all get them straight out there.

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