Fairway Rollin' - PGA Championship at Bellerive Predictions | ShackHouse (Ep. 74)

Episode Date: August 8, 2018

Geoff Shackelford and Joe House look ahead to the PGA Championship at Bellerive and run through the field, giving their predictions and analysis (01:00). Later, they further discuss prop bets, Tiger's chances to win, and their thoughts on the PGA’s broadcast rights (27:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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and lots of humidity and rain right now here at the Belariv Country Club. How are you today? I think I'm in better shape than you because you are. you mean you're sitting at the golf course but it's pouring down rain and you're just going to sit inside all day right it's not good the squeegee crew is now pushing water outside of uh towards our door here in the media center so that should give you an idea i'm waiting on the rain gauge total but um and i had so many so many wonderful theories too for you on who this was going to favor this week and uh this is just just blown a hole and all that i think i think uh it's It's going to be an interesting week. But we encountered this before. We just a couple years ago at Baltistral was kind of the same thing, right? Duck in rain drops, dodging lightning bolts, sopping up water.

But we managed to get in a good championship. Jimmy Walker over Jason Day right at the very end, very dramatic. Yeah, yeah, there was that. There was one key difference. The greens there were alive and healthy. Oh. No, no, they're living, they're living. They're just not quite the strongest set of greens I've ever seen in my life.

And I don't know what the members are going to be left with at the end of the championship. This rain might help a little bit, but either way, the greens, we have been hearing this for a while. They're very poor here. They're just soft and slow. And I say poor. By modern tournament standards, they're poor. By normal, everyday golf standards, they're fine. they're stressed.

They're just weak and unfortunately they just are made to look even worse by how amazing the rest of the conditioning is on the golf course. The zoisia grass fairways are very lush. They're a little slow though. So the combination of that with some width that I see and then a mowing of the rough yesterday and a few other things, you know, it just to me it's going to add up to a bomber's paradise. But we'll get to some of that, I think, as we break down. the field and some biases here at Belreve. Let me ask you a question about the Greens. I saw that you posted on Twitter a notice from the PGA about the green speeds.

What was that notice? Well, they are intentionally slow for the practice rounds, and they let the players know that they will be taking the speed up on Thursday once the championship begins, in part because they are trying to protect them. The members, as the forecaddy reported in golf week yesterday, have been off the Greens most of the year. They've played temporaries in the member guests.

The PGA Championship of America is picking up their dues for at least July and August as a thank you for staying off the green. So it's been a situation really that's really dated back to last summer. They've just had trouble in the heat. The Greens are just not healthy. and so they're just protecting them as much as possible heading into the championship. Now, today, I don't know. Again, I'm waiting on the rain number, but we've had well over an inch of rain here,

and that's certainly not going to speed them up or smooth them out. So there has been very little play on these, and they're going to be in for quite a shock on Thursday when they take the Mowing Heights down and put 156 players on these greens, which they were renovated. Lasted 2006. So I have a feeling there may be another renovation coming in the coming years. I feel for the members here.

They're very nice people, but they're going to pay a price. Another renovation. That's right. But the big picture observation here to me is, you know, this is kind of a fitting way to end this tournament in mid-August. We're going to stop having this, you know, middle of summer. event as the last major of the season and be subjected to

the vagaries of summer weather and no longer play at venues that are really vulnerable and susceptible to big time effects on the outcome and potentially the play because we're going to

take ourselves out of this summer window. Am I right? That is right. I certainly have some concerns about the May date going to some northeast venues where the Greens won't be ready because of wintertime weather. But yes, I think the PGA of America will be able to point to this week and say, well, this is another good reason we're leaving August. They've known about this problem for a while.

So it wasn't like the Greens just suddenly went on them because of the hot weather. The hot weather hasn't helped. And you really feel for the superintendent and the team here because the rest of the place is in excellent shape. But the callers are awful. You'll see on television. and they re-sought at them. And so they're going to be some rules issues

and players are kind of debating how they're going to recover. There's a lot of short grass around the greens here, but you're just not going to see any bump and run shots. It's all, they're just, the zoisje is just beautiful to hit a wedge off of a nice cushion line, no tight, scary stuff like we saw at Carnusti. I mean, the contrast between this and Carnusti in terms of really all facets of the game is startling.

And it's going to lead to, to, I think, just epic, epic good scoring, especially with this rain. And we can also touch on that in a bit if you've stumbled upon any prop bets on that front. Oh, I'm going to look. I guarantee I'm going to look while we're talking. Yeah. Well, let me just give you a quick little, let's just set the scene a little bit before we become total degenerates and break down the field,

because we do want to try and celebrate the host venue, which dates back to, believe it or not, 1897 at an original location, house. But they've been at this spot since 1960, Robert Trent Jones Senior Design. It's hosted a U.S. Open, a PGA championship. The course was renovated. It's been tinkered with a lot. Reese Jones in 2006, as I mentioned. And they've changed several holes. It's a beautiful property. I can say that. I really, really love the property. I don't love the Reese Jones work. It sticks out like a sore thumb. And not my, not my favorite kind of architecture. very abrupt. Very interesting, too, by the way. The bunkers, you have these very steep faces,

and they're cutting them tight. So you're going to see all the balls, I think, end up in the sand. I mean, there's just a lot of weird little dynamics going on with the setup between the agronomic issues and the bunkers. The course stretches to 7316 par 70. They've had Gary Player in Kelnagle in the U.S. Open here in 1965, just five years after it opened. In fact, on my flight here, Eddie Marens, the little pro, long time legendary pro Bel Air Country Club played in that U.S. Open and confirmed the legend that the course was a little bit rough. It still wasn't ready five years in when they hosted that. And by the way, House Kellnagle, Gary Player, two of the shortest hitters of their time. And also know-worthy when the PGA Championship came back here in 1992.

Nick Price, you know, he got it out there a decent distance, but was more accurate. It's certainly not a plotter or a short hitter. But you've probably scanned some of the leaderboards. And John Cook pops up, my colleague at Golf Channel, who I was talking to this morning, Jim Gallagher Jr. Gene Sowers, Jeff Maggard had 65 that week. So history has suggested that you don't have to be super long to play well here. Camillo Villegis edged out Dudley Hart by two in the BMW championship here in 2008,

which is really our only opportunity to look and see who's played Belgrade. Reeve before in a championship. And Phil Mickelson was really the only one of note besides Jim Furik who's playing this week. And if you believe the captain has a chance, he had a 62 in that event in 2008 here at Belrieve. And of course, of course also was slated to host the BMW in 2001, but the event was canceled due to the events of 9-11. So there you go.

So that's a little bit of Bel-Rive. Do not ask me why we're hosting the 100th PGA championship here. It's been asked many, many times and nobody has a good answer. What about the PGA of America? What's their answer? Somebody decided this would be a good place to have it. And as these organizations tend to be, it was a political thing, I think. And somebody was very happy at the time.

And there you go. So nobody else really quite understands it. But the fans here will be very supportive. and everybody is very excited to have the best golfers here in Missouri. So there is that. And there you have it. That's Bel-Reed. Congratulations.

I can feel your excitement too. Yeah, so there you go. Now, as for the championship itself, as you know, Justin Thomas is our defending champion. And this has been an American-dominated event, 79 of 99 PGAs. But for the last 10, we're American. So there has been a little bit of an international influence. 54 of 99 PGA champions and seven of the last nine have made this major, their first major championship win.

Something else to keep in mind. I'm sure you as a man of numbers has already taken note of that. I have indeed. I've been looking for my trend line, Shaq. That is one that jumps off the page at me. And when you say seven of nine, the other two. Two or one by Rory, which is an interesting phenomenon here because we are also looking at, we're trying to come up with a predicate for this Bel-Reeve experience.

What kind of skill set will do well here? What kind of disposition? And so we've done a little bit of research, a little bit of hustle. Our pal, Pat Mayo, of Fantasynational.com. has done a little bit of the leg work and looked at Reese Jones designs or redesigns that have been, you know, built into major kind of conditions. Did he conclude there had been too many? Oh, sorry.

Well, there are a number here. I mean, if you go East Lake, Mattiswold, Beth Page, Atlanta Athletic Club, Congressional Medina, Oakland Hills, Tori. Oh, after eat lunch. Come on. All the greats. All the greats. But Rory's name appears a few times on here, as does another name, Chastin Day. Yeah.

So it's already the case. Reese Jones, his own self has said that this design of his at Bell Reve is intended to favor a ball striker. And the strokes gained approach is one metric that has, you know, been cited as an indicator, a reasonable indicator of success at this venue. And in fact, Camillo Vigiegis, who you mentioned, had a good result in that category back in 2008. So I don't know what effect this rain that you are swimming through right now is going to have on that metric, if any. but we do know that these greens are going to be slow throughout, even with the effort to speed them up.

And so it may be the case that you don't need a guy with a historically demonstrated putting prowess. You need ball striking prowess, perhaps. Yeah, yeah, it's hard to see somebody gaining a lot of strokes on the field with their putter. It just doesn't have that feeling when you look at the greens that a good putter is going to to look at these and get excited. And I, you know, that's just going to be something to accept this week. And I also think that the softness of the greens is going to be interesting. Watching shots yesterday out on the golf course, how much balls were spinning back dramatically.

Something, you know, we see occasionally, but I have not seen in a major championship in a long time, those old style Greg Norman balls that just go out there and then just, just zing backwards. And I saw a lot of that yesterday. And I think some of the players are going to have to, I don't know, make some sort of adjustment. I don't know what you do. You can't really make your grooves dull while you're mid-tournament. So I think what it'll do is highlight something we've discussed before is how blown away I am by the ability of players today to hold greens that I think are concrete and they make look like they're not. and Belrieve is going to probably show that off.

It's not going to be something for Tiger who plays a very soft bridge stone ball that he's very proud of how soft and how much it spins, but it's something that's going to, I think, be on his mind, and hopefully we'll be able to ask him. He postponed his press conference here

around the rain, and he's out playing right now, and he's going to come in a little later today, so I don't have any insights from him. I do have, by the way, before I forget, Pous, a little bit of follow-up on his Firestone play, So I just want to get this. Well, you beat me to it. Because I'm interested in whether or not there's any correlation between what we just saw at Firestone and Belrieve, what you're anticipating and specifically in connection with the tiger.

So let's hear it. Well, I think there's a big correlation in terms of the guys who played well. I don't know how you don't get excited about Justin Thomas and Jason Day, even though it was a little ragging on Sunday and Roy McElroy. and then I'll even go a little bit deeper later on with a little Aaron Wise case. But Tiger did not practice from the time he left Carnusie until Tuesday when he arrived at Firestone. He was on a very strict family vacation of no golf. I think that was a spring training week for him at Firestone. Well, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, a very strict no golf.

Family vacation. Yeah, they went to Switzerland, which was really, he talked about. out, but he didn't take the golf clubs and he didn't practice. So he wasn't great. I don't have any problem with that. I'm not criticizing. I'm just letting you know that's probably why the game was probably not dialed in at Firestone. It was a it was a light week for him. It was a spring training week. Well, he was there on Thursday and Friday though. I mean, you know, he was

validating a lot of that early enthusiasm for him at the final, you know, everybody was dying for that narrative to be fulfilled, which was Tiger at the, the greatest. winner ever at Firestone closing out this, you know, era of Firestone with a win and the validation and valedictory experience of, you know, him back on the major golf scene. Yeah. Yeah. Anyway, that's all. Just, just know.

Didn't happen. Didn't happen. But I just don't know how hard he was going at it last week. I don't think his physical therapist was even there. And I just, yeah. So this is what I'm, this is what I was. I'm trying to, yeah, just don't read a lot into last week. I also, that's it.

I don't know, I don't see him loving Belrieve. He may, he may come in and say, I've never seen a course fit my eye more than this one, but this is a, I think he likes golf courses with a little left to right shape to the holes, and there's definitely a right to left bias that most people feel. The holes have that right to left bias here, right? And I would have said that might be a little bit overrated until this rain, because a couple of them you look at and you go, you know, you don't really want to cut that corner that much.

At least holes I looked at yesterday. I was like, well, it looks good from the T as the right to left hole, but you get down in the fairway, and actually the right side is almost better. So, and I read that in a few of the comments in past tournaments here, that there are some sucker T shots that can lure you into really trying to play a big rope draw and it doesn't there's no payoff for that and and that's why some of the shorter guys have played kind of cautiously and done fine because they didn't fall for that trap so that said i think

he tends to like a course that shaped a little more left or right these days but i i don't know i really he he'll it's hard to to read what what exactly he likes i just think more uh in general the the softness and it probably being an incredible birdie shootout. It's going to be hard for him to get the juices flowing like Carnisti did. Same with Jordan Spee. It's just hard for me to see him loving the way things are being presented right now because of this rain and the lushness of the turf. But strange things have happened.

I have one more Tiger question for you, but let's take a break before we get there. And then we can talk about some picks as well. Okay, great. Well, let's think about now House. It was a special week in golf last week, I think. Obviously, it was pretty cool that the generations that were there for Justin Thomas and his win at Firestone and knowing that his dad and his granddad were golf professionals. But I don't know if Georgia Hall's win at the women's British Open got enough love, whether dad on the bag, this is somebody who is. who did not come from a super wealthy background and even had to not play some events for financial reasons. And here she goes back to Great Britain with a great big bertha epic driver and a rogue Fairway would, channeling the jailbreak technology at Royalism. But I just thought it was such a cool win to see her do that in her native land and how much it meant to those people to have a Brit win at Royal Edom. just a class act all the way.

Incredible performance down the stretch on a golf course that was playing so, so tough. So congratulations to Georgia Hall, who plays so many fine clubs from our friends at Calloway Golf sponsors of this fine pod. Yeah, well, today's show also brought to us by our pals at Tommy John. Tommy John Shack is the revolutionary clothing brand that's redefined. comfort for Americans everywhere. Shack, Tommy John does not give an F.

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It's slow. It's going to be longer than probably people anticipated based on the recent rain. And I'm still loving Tony Fee now. So I'm just cutting right to the chase. It's just still, last week we covered it, and I'm feeling it this week still. But we do have a lot of names to throw out there for those who are doing a little bit of prognosticating fantasy play, fantasy golf play, that is, you know, that kind of thing. DFS, everything.

I don't have any reason to challenge you on Tony Fee now. He fits one of my favorite trend lines. This is from our good pals at ESPN.com. I think it was Chris Felica. I don't know how to say his name. So sorry, Chris, if I got it wrong. But there is a broad trend line that applies to not only PGA championship, where you mentioned seven of the last nine

our first time winners, but just in general, 10 of the past 12 majors have been won by a player that's not previously won a major. And we're going to layer in another little data point here. 23 of the past 24 majors have been won by players ranked in the top 30 of the official World Golf ranking. Okay.

So here's what we want, Shaq. want. Somebody ranked in the top 30 with no major wins. And I have about, uh, one, you know, maybe a dozen names or so that fit that, many of whom also by happenstance crossfit quite well into my Nike mixed bag invention. And you know, one of those names is indeed Tony Fee now. Now Tony Fee now has a lot of reasons. to be interesting this week. He has finished in the top 10 of all three majors so far this season,

which means that I am very bullish on a wager of him. Finishing inside the top 10, presently available at plus 350. That's three and a half to one that Tony Fee now will finish in the top 10. Some other names that fit that Nike clothing, mixed golf bag narrative.

How about Kyle? Stanley acquitted himself quite well last week at Firestone. You mentioned your own self being interested in seeing guys that you know have come in with a little bit of a hot hand. Kyle Stanley through the roof in the ball striking and approach metrics. You know what he's not good at? Pudding. You know what doesn't matter at this golf tournament? Pudding. Well, it matters a little, but I get your drift. No, that's, that's fantastic. He's a wonderful selection. And a couple other names. Now, nobody's going to be surprised to hear about Tommy Fleetwood. He, he has performed quite well in all of the majors so far this season.

With one exception, he didn't have, you know, an on-fire open championship performance. He started off hot and then kind of faltered down the stretch. Yeah, but he was there. He was there. Yeah, he was there. He's a, look at this. Now, I like these odds. Tony Fienel, presently available 35 to 1.

Tommy Fleetwood, presently available, 28 to 1. These are my kind of guy, Shaq. These are odds that give you some real incentive to go ahead and put down a little bit of hard-earned capital. Another guy that I'm looking at that doesn't fit the Nike mixed bag paradigm, but that I liked his form, and I think this is just the kind of tournament for him to win. John Rom. I think John Rom, this is, you know, there's a Tory corollary to this. Tori is another place that Reese put his hands on. And, you know, I think in terms of the length and the shot making, the high ball flight that seems like it's going to be required here,

John Rom, checks a lot of boxes for me. All right. He's all yours. Yeah. Before we leave Fee now, one of the, other thing. I don't know if you've taken a look at the groupings, but he is paired at 717 on Thursday with Jim Furek and Xander Schaulet. That ought to be an interesting little Rider Cup scouting mission. I'm not sure how I feel about that pairing. It's so obvious what's up with that one, but it's a chance for him to the captain to scout two players, and I guess the BJA championship is a place for that. I hope that doesn't add any kind of burden for Tony or Zand, I don't think it will.

I think this is a major, and they're going to be more concerned with that. Well, Zander is another guy that's interesting. Obviously, on this list, he's inside the top 30 and has not won a major, and possibly the best performance of anybody across the majors to date, right? This year? I thought Fino had him. But anyway, he's, yeah, I mean, well, obviously, the Open Championship was incredible.

I don't remember his master's finish now. I don't remember his master's finish he had a good players finish. Maybe that's what I'm thinking of. And Finau has just, he hasn't been out of the top 10 yet in the first three majors. And I feel like we've just done this before where a player has trended that season in the majors

and then done well on the PGA championship. So anyway, but he's a great number. He was a great number. But everybody's just feeling like this is a Rory McElroy Love Fest with the mudder angle, the PGA, the time of year. last week, but I don't know, Justin Thomas sure put him away. That was awfully impressive. I just don't have any feel. The Justin Thomas is my bugaboo. I cannot figure him out. I don't ever have a

feeling for when he's going to come into an event and burn it down. His track record at Firestone wasn't great. He had missed the cut at the Open Championship. Now, the same was true last year when he went to Quill Hollow and put on that great performance. But I just, I never, have a feel for when Justin Thomas is going to get Justin Thomas hot. And when he does, he's unstoppable. He's unbeatable. The only guy that can beat him is himself. And for that reason, I never give him out.

Now, he fits very much the pedigree that we talked about at Firestone of guys that have either won majors or, you know, have been in the top two or three. So there's no surprise there. And I regret not having included him, but his track record at Firestone wasn't strong. So, you know, it felt like maybe not a horse for a course. I do want to mention one other name to you that fits this Nike Mix Bag narrative. And I don't really think I'm going to bet him to win. But I just want to point out the consistency of Paul Casey.

Paul Casey has finished in the top 20 in 21 of his past 25 events going back last season. He is right now available at plus 180 to finish in the top 20 of this event. That's nearly two to one odds for him to do something that he's done 21 of his past 25 events. And Paul Casey, sneakily, has also had a pretty decent major tournament performance, good performance run this year. Sorry, I was a little distracted. Tiger Woods just walked by. Somehow the media center back door has become the way into the center. He did not stop and offer his best to Shackhouse listeners, but I know that's what he was thinking with that little head nod. Yeah, I love all those names.

Now, let's throw out some people that names that don't normally get mentioned, because we really are overdue in a PGA championship for a little bit of a surprise winner. And I think that this year's setup, with the softness, probably opens the door to some people who you might not normally have expected to contend. That just kind of seems to happen when you get a softer golf course. Somebody just gets hot and gets rolling. and that's why, I mean, there are two people really who stand out to me. Obviously, the first I mentioned earlier, so it's not going to come as a surprise.

Aaron Wise, who had missed five cuts in a row until he played very well at Firestone, tied for six. And he's somebody, once he finds something and gets going, he's pretty dangerous. And I feel like this is a golf course that should suit him, suit his kind of style of attack and allow him to attack. I think he just does look like somebody who wants to play aggressively and isn't so hot when he has to play cautiously. And that's just kind of a typical of a lot of the young players today. And I think he's going to have the green light special here. Yeah, he fits that bomber thing. He's one of these, I'm going to say this, and I don't mean it in a pejorative way at all.

I'm very jealous. He's a little guy bomber. He and Justin Thomas are both not giant men, but they hit the living daylights out of the ball. And they swing like their life depends on it. And I'm with you. If he's demonstrated his win at Trinity Forest this year was a perfectly good validation of this. When he's clicked in, he's pretty unstoppable. Yeah.

The other guy who is trying desperately to make the Ryder Cup team, Torborn Olison, if you're a draft king's player, he's at $6,700. I put him on my golf week. Golf week, we have our fantasy picks. and I had to submit mine. And I threw him in as a draft king's bargain. He was T6 at the Irish, T12 at the Open, and then T3 at the Bridgestone.

Captain Bjorn came in today and said, look, I did not know this. They're very good friends. And he's made clear that for him to pick him, to be a captain's pick, if he doesn't make it on points, and he's in that spot right now just outside on the European list, he is going to have to do something very, very special

to make the captain feel good about select him. So I just love the way his game is trending. He's a sensational talent. If you look at the number, he's picked up yardage. He had had it. He lost it. He kind of has gotten it back. So I don't know if that was injury or technique,

but he's clearly somebody who is more, well, just really dialed in right now. And so to play well at Firestone after the link season shows he's just kind of immune to whatever the golf course setup is. This game is just fitting everything. So keeping on him, great guy to have down the list. I want to offer you a little support on that. Our good pal, Justin Ray, at Justin Ray GC, the Golf Channel researcher,

posted Torburn's last five final round scores, the last five tournaments that he's played in when he's made it to a Sunday. Here are the Sunday scores. And I don't have the tournaments to match up. but you mentioned a few of the tournaments. 64, 61, 61, 64. So that's a pretty good closer right there. That's a guy that if he makes the cut,

you can have high hopes for something. And if you're looking to build out a DFS lineup or a fantasy lineup, that's a guy. I think you did very well putting him into the mix there in your column earlier this week. Now, have you got anybody any long shots? excited about? No, I'm pretty well focused on these middle tier guys.

I really do subscribe to this idea of a top 30 official world golf ranking. And I like very much a first-time winner. One guy we haven't mentioned that could be an interesting redemption story. After the hullabaloo, he found himself in last week. We talked about it. That was Bryson Deschambeau. the only golfer to improve his score each round at Firestone this past week. He shot lower each day, and I don't know where he ended up,

but it was a decent finish. I'm pretty sure it was a top 10 finish. Was it? For Bryson? I don't know. Okay. I'll have to double check that. Well, he was out with Captain Ferrick this morning in the limited practice round

that has once again been suspended here. and so he's certainly trying everything he can to make the Riter Cup team. And that would be almost a concern to me that he's that he's trying too hard on that front. Now, House, have you come across any prop bets on the score or is a little too early? I do. I have. I have. And this is the interesting thing. I'm looking at Jeff Sherman at Westgate, the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook manager. He put these up about 45 minutes ago. The winning score prop and the lowest round prop shack are the exact same.

same at Bell Reeve as they were at Karnoosti. Now I got it dead wrong at Karnoosti. The winning score number is 267 and a half. The lowest round is 63 and a half. We only missed the lowest round by a stroke and Justin Rose on Saturday

shot that 64 and it felt like who who was it? Was it Chris Wood? Somebody was out there. Chris Wood was one. Yeah, there were a couple. Yeah, it was on fire on Saturday and then just petered out a little bit down the stretch. But I thought we might get a 63 on Saturday because of how beautiful the conditions were at Carnusti and, you know, it was a favorable setup in terms of the pins and such.

And so I don't have any problem with going with a 63, you know, taking the under on lowest round here. Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. What did he set? He set it at 63 for the lowest round? Yeah, 63 and a half. So 63 is a winner. Seven under is a winner. But that wasn't what it was at Carnusti. Yes, it was. It was 63.5. You had to match the course record at Karnoosti to win. I'm telling you, I know this because I lost.

I don't know why I thought it was. The numbers were the same. I thought it edged up to 64 or 64.5. Well, if it did, I didn't get it. The action I got was 63 and a half on Thursday. It's a part 70, two par fives. So you have that element here. But I just think with the softness, you saw the driving distance. at Firestone. This is that time of year. Everybody is as limber and feeling as good as they can possibly feel. And they're just hitting the ball. Incredible distances. And they're they're just, everything's just generally dialed in for most of these players this time of year. So I, I believe a 62 is very, very possible. And I would, I would take the under. 267 puts us at 13 under. 13 under is a winner. The number's 267 and a half. So if we get ourselves to 13 under, that's a W on that. Yeah, I think 15 or 16 under is easily within reach. Okay, so you're based on what you've seen so far and your experience walking around,

the rough is, you know, it's been cut down to two and a half inches. It's not going to be so formidable that it's going to drag the field closer to a 10 under kind of number. I sure don't think so. No, and I talked to a couple of caddies when I was out there yesterday, and without even asking their thoughts, they just, their first reaction was low-scoring, just going to be an absolute shootout. And I, because you have to look at other elements. The bunkers look really good. You know, if you watch Lidtham when Georgia Hall won, they, Karen Stupples was very critical, frankly.

The bunkers there are so penal, and then they had kind of thick rake marks. Well, here, everything I've seen, the raking is very standard, nice compact sand, and now with this rain, it firms it up, and that gives these guys no problems. The short grass areas are not intimidating in that they're not going to stand there, go, do I hit wedge, do I put it? It's a lob wedge every time over here. So you just kind of all these little things where you chip away at decision-making or doubt, and then no. wind. It's just all the ingredients for incredible scoring for these guys. They're just, they're just all too dialed in at this point with amazing equipment, track man, masseurs, swing coaches, the whole pack.

Mouss, masseuses. They just, they just can't. They, they really, it's, it's hard to fathom how they can have it more perfectly set up for scoring. I guess the only thing you might counter with is that the greens aren't super smooth, but they aren't super fast either. So it's not like, you know, on the West Coast swing where you get those POA greens that are 13 and they obsess over every little bump because they're accentuated so much at that speed. When these are at 10 and a half, like they were at a lot of the links golf courses and they were bumpy, the players just don't

take as much offense and then therefore their confidence soars. and I feel like that just the ingredients are too strong. So, and I, I think, take the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the bet that says it's going to be, uh, low scoring.

All right. I like it. Well, how about, uh, we mentioned Tiger and, you know, people might be out on him a little bit. Uh, the odds for him, will he make the cut? Yes. Is minus 450. So that's pretty expensive. If you, if you, if you want to wait a, on Tiger making the cut, you have to put down 450 to win 100.

That's insane. I'm not messing with that at all. No, no, no. And I like his pairing. You know, he's Thursday morning. He's playing with Rory and Justin. And I, you know, the only thing is he might get into a little bit of a long drive chasing kind of thing. But I don't, I feel like he's past that in his life.

I don't think he really gets caught up in that kind of thing. So I think it's a great pairing for him. And he can learn a golf course pretty quickly, as they're all going to have to do. So I think he's certainly going to make the cut and play well. I just don't know if he's really going to get up to that next level and love this place enough to go all out. So let me – I want to briefly touch on the very tip-top, tippy top. tier guys to make sure that we've at least given

a little bit of FaceTime for him. DJ shot 10 under at Firestone over the weekend. He was even par going into Saturday, then he shot 10 under. Would anybody raise an eyebrow if DJ came out and burned this place down? No. No, they wouldn't be shocked at all. No.

He should love it. Yeah. Because he can just bomb the ball all over the place. And he showed great accuracy in Canada. I don't know what his accuracy off the T. He was at Firestone, but it didn't really matter. He was the only guy that shot 10 under over the weekend.

And what do I do with Justin Thomas? I mean, I just don't know what to do. I don't understand. What do you mean? What is there to do? Is he going to be great or is he going to be not great? He's going to be great. He's one of the top two players in the world right now.

You think he's going to be tired from last week? Do you think he's going to be intimidated playing with Rory and Tiger? No, he's friends with both. In fact, that pairing might even be more to his liking than it will be for Rory or Tiger. In fact, Rory doesn't like these celebrity pairings that much, although this is actually strictly in PGA Championship terms a former PGA champions pairing. He's Justin Thomas, he's, he's is close to it. a sure thing to be in contention

as you can possibly get in a golf tournament. So that means that we have four guys that feel like fit that category in the very tippy top tier. That's Rory. I mean, there's any, we can't leave Rory out, can we? How about the U.S. Open

champion also fits in that category? Brooks Kepka. I know, and he's available 20 to 1 right now. And he averaged 341 yards off the T last week on the measuring hole. 329 on all drives. He and Rory both. 329. All drives. Every one of them. Unbelievable. Well, I just, the problem I have with Kepka is he's another guy. I don't know what

frame of mind he's in and it seems like that matters. Now, he finished fifth. Yeah. At Bridgestone after. You can't leave him out. Canada. And he's played very well in the PGA championship the last three years. He likes this time of year. He likes warm. weather. He's bombing it. I just, I think he's in that upper, upper group. Yeah, no, it's a wealth of riches right now. It's exciting. And we have

you know, we've had times where we lament that there aren't that many of the top players playing well going into an event. Well, we certainly have that this time. And I think that's what makes it fun in spite of maybe the not the most thrilling piece of architecture

or the most perfect setup. So many guys are are on form and it's the last major of the year the last time they're ever going to play it in August so I think I think and then the crowds are going to be pretty excited to see them and that's going to raise the energy levels so I'm not worried about about all that I am worried about that you know first time we hear the the TNT theme music on Thursday that's going to be a little rough so why is that? It's not my favorite broadcast in the year no you've been tiptoeing now why is that is it because

it's a little quiet for you? It's just never worked. Well, you know, we see this with a lot of times where it's one time a year, and it's tough for them to get in the flow. And even though CBS is providing the photos, Ernie Johnson is an amazing studio announcer. He's not quite as thrilling on the play-by-play. And it's just always had kind of an air to it that's a little bit dull. And it's certainly heavily, heavily laden with commercials and promos for,

shows because the contract the PGA of America has, which has one more year at Bethpage next year, it was an ironclad contract and they have not been able to modify it and maybe trim a little of that promotional fat off of the bones. So CBS will be running promos for 60 minutes and things like they would a normal tour event, and it takes away a little of the major championship feel. I mean, I really, I know I think some people might find it bizarre, but I think the people, BGA has been hurt by the quality of the broadcast as a championship, that people just think a little less of it. And so that's something they'll be able to remedy in their next television contract, which I believe will be decided sometime in the coming weeks or month between probably CBS and NBC. Although, you know, there have been some interesting mentions of other people suddenly interested in getting back into golf in some form.

So you never know. Like who? Like who? ESPN, I think, has a little bit of interest. And certainly TNT seems to have a lot of money and interest. There have been kind of rumblings that might be a streaming element. But, you know, the tour just signed a new deal with NBC for the PGA Tour Live coverage. And they're going to host that pre-coverage.

So that was an interesting, kind of surprising move, frankly, that they went that way because there'd been a sense of been a little bit of tension between the sides. So obviously I'm thrilled because I think a little more synergy between Golf Channel and PGA Tour Live will be good. So, yeah, the PGA has, you know, it's a good time to be asking people about sports rights because a lot of the rights packages have been locked up. And this is one that's available. And maybe they miss the biggest money opportunity. But you never know with a Netflix and some of these other people on Amazon out there.

and they've all been suggested as wanting to get into sports, so you just never know. Okay, that's interesting. Fox has made such an outlay in terms of the capital that they've committed to the USDA. That's a natural contender, I would think. They built out all of the capacity in terms of the human capital and the infrastructure

to cover all the USDA events that they have under the umbrella right now. I wouldn't be shocked at all if they stepped up something crazy. Well, we'll see. Well, you let me know what you think of the TNT broadcast, because it'll kick off Thursday. And it looks to me like a big, big bias towards big, big, names Thursday morning, Friday afternoon and the pairing. It's just my opinion. And it should be, you know, the only thing I care about and that I ever complain about is, is, you know, seeing the biggest names on, you're having them available on TV when they're playing. That's the only thing I'm interested in.

So if they get that, then I'll be okay. But I guess what remains to be seen. All right. Well, I'm going to go do a few more duties here. Let's do a few player comments. And are we going to try to do a little action on the Twitter tomorrow, Wednesday? Definitely. An update?

Okay. Good. elections and anticipations. Well, there are a lot of guys I'm looking at for top 20 and top 10 plays this go around. I mean, you can spread out, the winners is going to be

so difficult for this shootout because of the shootout effect that you're describing, and it's going to be expensive to sprinkle on the five or six guys at the top tier. You know, I can't leave out Jason Day. I can't leave out Rory. I can't leave out Justin Thomas. I can't leave out DJ.

I can't leave it. You know, I Who are you leaving out? No, I don't want to know. So, you know, and then I have all my middle tier guys as well. So this menu might be a pricey menu, but it's just where we're at with this event this year. Yeah. All right. Well, I'm going to have some stuff on my blog with the pod with some fantasy picks.

And then we'll also hit the social media with a few updated ones. It's supposed to just keep raining off and on. I think Tuesday, Wednesday. Thursday, but then be okay, and then the weekend gets a little more interesting. But the forecast has changed a million times. So by the time people are listening to this, it will have changed at least 10 more times. So that said, we'll be back Sunday evening. Absolutely. We're going to do a quick final round wrap from our friends at the Ringer are going to help us out to wrap up everything about this BGA championship, whatever other news develops during the week. Maybe we'll

eventually get a verdict on the Tiger Phil match. We'll know a little bit more about the PGA of America, what they may be doing with some of their plans here in the coming years. Who knows? Maybe a new venue announcement and all that good stuff. So, but anyway, House quickly, just a thank you again to our friends of Calloway for sponsoring the Shack House and their new red ball putter from Odyssey, which is now available in stores.

Please go out to your local golf shop and check out this totally cool design. meant to help you address and improve on having exactly the right setup, getting those eyes right over the ball. It's totally cool stuff. Great training aid, but also could be something that really helps you with your game. And, of course, it's got the white hot face. The ultimate insert in all of putting and Odyssey has led all of the major tours this year

and in major championships in the putter counts for good reason. Yeah, well, we have a lot of guys at the Belize. with the Odyssey in their bag. And I wouldn't be surprised at all if one of the guys we've talked about comes through. I'm certainly rooting for it. We'll get all of those

lineups and picks and selections out onto the social media for everybody. Thanks as always for listening to the shock. Part of the record podcast network. We will be back Sunday night with a champion. Can't wait.