Fairway Rollin' - Placing Your Bets for the PGA Championship | Fairway Rollin’

Episode Date: May 15, 2019

Joe House is joined by the 15th Club's Justin Ray (2:30) and Harry Gagnon (60:00) to help you set your lineups and perhaps allocate some capital for the PGA Championship. Host: Joe House Guests: Justi...n Ray, Harry Gagnon Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 Hello, friends, and welcome to this golf podcast, unlike any other. It is a Wednesday before a major championship, and we are majorly excited here on Fairway Road. This is the golf podcast on the Ringer Podcast Network, presented by our friends at Callaway Golf Golf, who are currently running a great promotion on the ERC soft yellow golf balls. This is in conjunction with the initiative by Jack and Barbara Nicholas, the Play Yellow campaign. They're trying to raise $100 million for children's hospitals across the country over the next five years. Calloway is doing its part now through the end of the month,
Starting point is 00:00:57 through May 31st, Caliway is donating $4 for every. dozen of ERC soft yellow golf ball sold. You can do that online. You can go to participating retail locations. The Play Yellow campaign is fantastic. You got to get in there. My friends, I am your starter Joe House. This is your PGA championship preview where we go deep on the data and the analytics
Starting point is 00:01:27 and try and come up with some angles for you as you consider. how to allocate your capital. You consider your DFS lineups. You consider your fantasy lineups. You consider your one and duns. We are here to serve you, my par saving pals. Today's show, of course, we have from the 15th club, the analytics guru himself, formerly the guy who ran data at the golf channel.
Starting point is 00:01:54 He's now doing the same thing as the head of content at the 15th club. Justin Ray is here to repeat. Pete has outstanding performance at the Masters, where he helped us really navigate the rough terrain of Augusta National. We're looking at an even longer and tougher terrain here at Bethpage Black. Of course, our beloved homie, Harry Gagnon, from Against All Lodge is helping us against all odds. Try and pick a handful of winners, some props that we like.
Starting point is 00:02:23 The first tea is open, my friends. Let's go let out a little shaft. ladies and gentlemen now on the T from Houston, Texas, playing out of Dubbs, Dread, golf and country club. He is the driving range
Starting point is 00:02:41 ball picker consultant. Justin Ray, welcome to Fairway Rolling. Thank you for that introduction. Major championship weekend, I hope it be fired up. Oh, my God, my guy. I was so excited. I reached out to you last week.
Starting point is 00:02:58 I said, we got to run it back. we had such a great conversation on the eve of the masters. This is the time when all of our par saving pals out there want to take their deep dive into the analytics. They want to hear the angles. They want to know who's going to win this golf tournament this week, Justin Ray. And I know that you and I don't know the answer to that because if we did, we would not be having a podcast about it. we would be somewhere else, you know, raking in the riches. But we're going to do our best to give out some very good guidance.
Starting point is 00:03:34 I have been enjoying the 15th club content this week as you've done some preview stuff. And I don't want to step on any of your work that is to come through the balance of the week. But I know that you're ready with many, you know, interesting aspects, considerations for all of our friends out there to use. as they kind of evaluate who they might put on their fantasy pools, their DFS lineups, maybe allocate a little capital, a couple bucks here or there to some names. Let's set the stage here, though. We have to start, if you don't mind,
Starting point is 00:04:12 with the way we started the Masters, which is taking a look at the venue and trying to come up with a handful of performance measures that will, you know, perhaps be indicative of help us sort of narrow down this huge field, 156 golfers in this field, Justin. Yeah, I mean, one of the things I'm kind of nasty weather we've had Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, how it's going to impact what's already a really difficult golf course. You know, this isn't a place where short years are going to have a lot of success in the first place
Starting point is 00:04:49 and you add some rain into that mix, and it's only going to make it more difficult for guys who are, you know, average length or below average length. I mean, it's going to be a really tough week for, it's going to be a huge disparity in scores. So if you see a couple of mid-80s by the club pro guys who are out on the course, you know, don't knock it because it's going to be really tough conditions. You know, but I will say that players have commented on how impeccably the course has been prepared for the championship. One prominent European player told 15 club is the best prepared golf course he's ever played on,
Starting point is 00:05:23 and that includes the Gus of National. the testament to how well we've got this. Yeah, I was pretty stunned to hear that, too, especially considering, you know, this is a public venue. I know they've, you know, the schedule. The common phone, the regular is like you and I to play, it's changed a little bit as they get ready for a major course. But he said it's the best prepared golf courts he has ever played on.
Starting point is 00:05:44 That being said, you straight a little bit from the fairways, and it's going to be the notorious Best Page Black, devastating rough. You know, unless you're one of the best long-iron players on Earth, it's short-henders are probably going to be eliminated pretty early on. You've got to be pretty, you've got to be basically, if you don't hit it really far, you've got to be impactful off the tee. So it almost should be a really tough test for the world's best players, which is definitely what we all want to see. Yeah, well, the interesting thing is this is a venue that's hosted two U.S. Opens. It's the first time it's hosting the PGA Championship.
Starting point is 00:06:18 And we know there is kind of a difference in ideology. We had Joel Beal on earlier this week from Golf Digest, and he wrote a story in Golf Digest. about, you know, sort of the identity of the PGA championship being pretty radically different from the U.S. Open kind of goal, the way that each governing body tries to determine a champion, there's a different philosophy between the two. And the PGA championship historically has been a venue, a setup where guys can go out and make birdie. And the ideology seems to suggest that they want to sort of showcase the talent of these guys and their ability to go low. And we know the USGA by way of, you know, the course setups and, you know, they've been under
Starting point is 00:07:09 criticism feels like for 10 years now, experiencing criticism for the, for the U.S. Open setups. And their goal is, you know, typically it seems to produce a champion around PAR. So how do we kind of reconcile? Beth Page Black is a U.S. open venue. it's a gigantic ballpark and it's just by virtue of where we're playing on the calendar
Starting point is 00:07:32 and the variability of kind of May conditions on the course plus the rain that you talked about at the beginning of the week do you expect guys to be able to go low at this venue? So I think we've got, I know you mentioned the two U.S. opens
Starting point is 00:07:48 but we've also had two FedEx Cup playoff events held here within the last six, seven years. Nick Watney won in 2020. and Patrick Reed won in 2016 when it was the Barclays now it's the Northern Trust. I love the fact that the PGA championship
Starting point is 00:08:03 it's not all about course set up. I mean, people are always not the PGA because they don't think it necessarily has an identity. The Masters has all the tradition and, you know, all the history that goes along with that. The Open Championship is the original. You know, the venues, they're all
Starting point is 00:08:19 unique. There's a link's golf. The U.S. Open is supposed to be the toughest test. And you leave the PGA and say, well, they don't really have an identity. I would argue its identity is it's the players you know, it's the fans championship and it's the championship where the players decide who win most, most, more
Starting point is 00:08:35 than anything else. I mean, you've got to get the biggest field of the, or as big a field as any of the other four majors, the other three majors, apologies. And, you know, I think they, they have a formula here where, you know, it's all about the golf. It's not about the course set up. It's not
Starting point is 00:08:51 about the other, it's just, you know, you've got the best players in the world and you're all out there. and see you's the best player. You know, as you mentioned with the place on the calendar, some of the weather we've had, and the course itself, the players are going to face a lot more longer iron shots than normal, and you're going to have fewer wet shots than the typical PGA tour layout.
Starting point is 00:09:10 And that's going to be exacerbated a little bit more just based on where we are on the calendar, like you said, temperatures in the 50s and 60s, maybe even the high 40s in the morning, and the wet conditions we've seen. So because of the length, the conditions, players now wanting to end up in the run, So maybe they're getting three wood off the T, if they're, you know, afraid of missing right or left.
Starting point is 00:09:31 You're going to see a lot more long eye and shots. Another thing, long street drivers of the golf ball will be really, really rewarded this week. If you hit it long and into the fairway, it's much more important to hit it straight and long than Jeff Long, like maybe at a regular PGA tour event where the rough isn't particularly penalizing. There's six different holes on this course where the average penalty for missing the fairway is about half a shot. And that is a huge penalty if you miss off the T compared to the norm on the PGA tour, which doesn't sound like a line when you say, but it adds up. It's a third of the golf course. You know, six.
Starting point is 00:10:15 So, yeah, that's going to have an impact. Okay. You miss those six takeaways on average. That's a three-shot penalty. I mean, that's gigantic. So that page also usually in the playoff events, there were held here. It was much more difficult putting. inside 10 feet than normal.
Starting point is 00:10:31 And players are also usually, you pretty much guaranteed to hit a couple of shots per round from the green side bunkers. So really close proximity, chipping out of some really tough rough and out of the bunkers is going to be important. And we knew that coming into it. But I think that the cool air and the rain we've seen is only going to make that more so. Yeah. So let's go ahead and be specific about what performance measures you're looking at that you're
Starting point is 00:10:59 that you guys are focusing on to try and identify those traits, those attributes among the field that are going to be really crucial to identifying a winner this week? Yeah, one thing I've really looked at a lot is long iron play. Players who are really good on approach shots
Starting point is 00:11:18 from 175 to 125 to 225 just because you're going to see a handful more of those than you normally see on the PGA tour. for a lot of golf fans, that's good news for a guy named Tiger Woods because he's hitting the ball. He's maybe the best iron player on the planet last nine to 12 months. There's a couple of more guys off the board that we'll get to that I really like, who are really good long iron players.
Starting point is 00:11:45 And as far as a skill that I've bade, you're not going to see, it's not going to be a wedge contest. It's not going to be, you know, how close can you get it from 50, 60, 70 yards? You just don't have that many opportunities. whether it's, you know, the long par fours where you're not in that range, T-shot, or if you miss on those long par fours, you miss the fairway, you're a little further back. You're not going to be able to hit sand wedge or nine iron out of where your T-shot
Starting point is 00:12:11 ends up, you're going to have a longer or mid-iron into those greens. So save the wedge play and emphasize long-iron play a little bit more. And guys who can crush the ball off the feet. I know that seems obvious. Best page black is super long, but guys like Rory Mesafeb. McElroy leads to the sword and strokes gained off the tea. John Rom, I like a lot this week. DJ, of course.
Starting point is 00:12:34 I mean, typically in this era we're in, this power prejudice era, you know, you tend to look more, the top of the world rankings looks a lot like the top of the driving different leaders on the PGA store, but I think it's a little bit more exacerbated this week just because of the length of the golf course. But like I said, you've got to hit it straight if you're long. A guy like Tony Fienow hit for the mile is driving. accuracy isn't very good. Phil Mickelson still has a blue of average distance, even at his age. His driving accuracy is horrific this year. Just take those things into account when you're making
Starting point is 00:13:06 your picks. Okay. I like it. So we have strokes gained off the T, driving distance, driving accuracy, long iron play. That's kind of four categories. Is there anything else out there that you got your eye on? A couple things that I wouldn't emphasize as much, but it will prove to be pretty important. I mentioned how difficult this course is putting inside 10 feet. I know that, you know, based on what we said earlier, that the greens are in a macular condition. The course is in excellent shape. It's still a really tough course when you're putting inside 10 feet.
Starting point is 00:13:40 You're going to miss some greens here. So guys are really good chipping out of the rough. We'll probably be a little bit of a boost there. So if you've got a deciding factor on a guy and you've got them, you know, comparable in those driving along iron stats, pick the guys a little bit better chipper, proximity around the green. proximity shipping from the rough, all the stuff you can find on the PGA Tour stats site.
Starting point is 00:14:02 Very good, very good. Okay. So, but we're going to get to some names like we did with the masters and we have sort of a variety of categories that we're going to examine. But we're still in this stage setting mode. And I'm interested in kind of two aspects of this. In the first place, until our boy J.T. pulled out, Justin Thomas had to withdraw with a wrist injury. We were poised to have the very first major championship. I believe in golf history, we are all 100 of the top 100 players in the official world golf rankings. We're going to play in the tournament. J.T. unfortunately, heard himself a couple months ago, and he's now withdrawn from two consecutive event, so we're not going to have that.
Starting point is 00:14:52 But quality of field at this event is undeniable and impeccable. Having said that, do you think, in line with the history of this championship, the PGA championship, has produced a lot of first-time
Starting point is 00:15:10 major winners, is it possible at this venue with this impeccable field for a first-time major champion this week? Well, first thing I'll say, History says we are well overdue for a 29 streak winners ranked in the top 50 in the world, which is a crazy run. The last guy who was ranked outside the top 50 when a major was Keegan Bradley at the 2011 PGA. So it's been eight years since we had a guy ranked outside the top 50 win.
Starting point is 00:15:38 By far the longest streak like that we've ever had since the world ranking stand about 35 years ago. And even more so 18 of the last 19 major winners were in the top 25, the only exception being Jimmy Walker, that weird rainy PGA evolves. all a couple of years ago. So history says we are long overdue Lucas Glover like we saw at the 2009 U.S. Open. It was ranked in the 70s. Or, you know, somebody of that hill
Starting point is 00:16:03 or really didn't see him coming. It feels like we've been really lucking out with these major champions in recent years. And that's a number to back it up. As far as a first-time major champion, I think it's absolutely possible here. And, you know, I'm looking more at the top of the
Starting point is 00:16:18 field in terms of guys who have the potential in their first major. Like I said, I really like John Romelot this week. Patrick Cantlay is another guy I like, contendous of Masters, has played well in majors in recent years. Guys like Ricky Fowler, Tommy Fleetwood, you know, you wouldn't be surprised to see them near the top of the board either. Tommy Fleetwood, especially as good a driver of the golf ball as he is, very accurate.
Starting point is 00:16:41 I don't think it's going to be real far back in the pack, but like I said, Lucas Glover won here ranked in the 70s in 2009. So, you know, the PGA Championship, like you said, traditionally, it's had the most world number ones win the PGA championship and also the most guys ranked outside the top 50. So it's a real true true test where it's the best player that given week, which is I think one of the good traits of the championship. Yeah, I agree with you. One other trend that has been going on, I want to get your thoughts on before we jump in to naming some names here. The U.S. has been dominating the majors, seven of the past eight.
Starting point is 00:17:20 Is there any reason, as you look at this venue, this setup, the weather, the field, any reason to think that the U.S. domination will not continue? I don't think it's just the fact there's a lot of really good American players right now. And of those seven and last days, three of them belong to Brooks Cepka. So, Brooks, Jordan, speed winning the open a couple years ago, I know his form isn't what it has been, but, you know, Jaylorah, of course, the Masters, there's just a really great crop of American players at the top of the game right now. And it kind of comes in waves.
Starting point is 00:18:01 But, you know, I could certainly see the New York crowd getting behind the American player and then coming through and winning. You could definitely see, you know, I think Ty Neurton 10 this week, as good as he said in his irons. You know, you've got to like books in defense, of course, you know, as far as they hit the golf ball as well they've been playing. So, you know, I can see continuing, absolutely. think it's not so much a dearth of European town by any means.
Starting point is 00:18:27 It's just that there's, you know, any given couple of weeks from the last few years, there have been some really good American players on top of their game. Yeah, I, I, it's very hard to count out the top of the non-U.S. field, and it just feels like maybe a bit of a historical anomaly. It comes in waves the way that you said it. And we're going to get to some non-U.S. names for sure. But I want to start with in the same kind of vein as how we did this at the Masters. I'm looking at the odds of various players to win.
Starting point is 00:19:01 And I want to just kind of use that as a framework for us to talk about some of these guys that might be coming from back of the pack, you know, guys not ranked in the top 25, maybe not even ranked in the top 50 in the official world golf rankings. But that might make a splash this week, might have a great sort of unexpected performance. based on what you anticipate in terms of the skill sets that we just went through the attributes that are going to be helpful. And let's start with, you know, sort of guys in this 50 to one odds and upwards kind of range. And there's one name in particular that has caught my eye this week, but I'm obviously very, very interested in hearing your thoughts. I'll mention my guy and then I'll let you talk about a few other guys that have caught your,
Starting point is 00:19:51 your eye i'm i'm looking at bubble watson um it's it's a big surprise to me uh coming into this event to have him available right now at better than than uh 50 to one odds i i'm gonna i saw him earlier this week at 55 to one um i'm i'm not sure exactly right the second as we as we pull it up where he's at but um his uh performance at beth page each of the three times he's played it he's finished inside the top 20 So it could be the case that Beth Page is above a track. And we know that if he has a comfort at a particular venue, he's capable of repeat high level performances.
Starting point is 00:20:33 We know that Bubba likes putting on poa. He greatly prefers putting on poa. His best performances putting this year have been at the Genesis out in Riviera and down in Mexico at the WGC event. And, you know, he certainly has the, long-distance attributes that we're looking for. What do you think about my man, Bubba Watson, this week? That's interesting.
Starting point is 00:20:57 You know, he's still, you know, he's 40 years old now. He's third on tour and strokes gained off the T, seventh driving distance. Obviously, still hits at a mile. We know that when conditions are adverse, Bubba tends to fade away. You know, if he doesn't like someplace, he'll let you know. And it seems to, it seems to impact him maybe a little bit more than others. I will say that at each of his last four major championship starts that weren't at Augusta National, he missed the cut. So I think you're on to something, though.
Starting point is 00:21:26 I think this may be a venue that fits him. We all know if he's able to work the ball right to left, left, or right off the tee and kind of things fit his eye, that he's as capable as anybody in the world of winning a major championship. So that's an interesting call. I kind of like him, especially that number. It's surprising for a guy who's got a couple of major championships. one handful of times a year or two ago. That's an interesting call.
Starting point is 00:21:51 I kind of like that. Can I give you my guy who's, I got one guy who's pretty far off the board that I'm really interested in this week. Well, I'm dying to hear it because we got to give you a nice pat on the back. That Corey Conner's call at the Masters through three rounds, not only making the cut, which I think a lot of folks appreciated,
Starting point is 00:22:11 but, you know, through three rounds, he was inside the top 20, and I was looking very excitedly at, my top 20 wager on him thinking, boy, this, you know, my, my sister, Justin Ray really hooked us up now. He faded on Sunday, but that, that, that's okay. Do we have a Cory Connors this week, my man? All right. So this is a player that, uh, had a really great performance at the open championship a couple years ago. Um, 150 to one, how long Lee? Um, his strength are really,
Starting point is 00:22:39 his strengths are really emphasized on this course. I think some of his weaknesses are taken. Lee is one of the best long iron players on the planet. He's first on the PGA tour and approach shots from 175 to 200, third from 200 to 225. You're going to see a big handful of those kinds of approach shots this week. He is dead last on tour on approach shots from 50 to 125, i.e. wed shots, which you're not going to see as many of this week. So his strengths are really going to be emphasized.
Starting point is 00:23:08 He's not going to have to hit as many wedge shots, which is his weakness. He's a really interesting study for me in terms of kind of, kind of, he's kind of like the walking hypothesis I have for this golf course for the week. So, I mean, they're going to be really right or really wrong. But at 1st 51, I think he's a guy that, you know,
Starting point is 00:23:26 he's got some big wins under his belt. He beat Rory McElroy head to head in Dubai last year. He shot 63 at the Open Championship a couple years ago. Outstanding long iron player. And he's able to hide his deficiencies
Starting point is 00:23:42 just a little bit. So that's my guy he was way off the board. Another guy I like who's kind of in that 50 to 60 one. The last big event held here was the playoff event in the FedEx Cup in 2016, and Patrick Reed won it. And he's 60 to 1 this week. He's not a great iron player traditionally week to week, but he was top 10 in the strokes game approach that week.
Starting point is 00:24:02 He has one of the best short games in the world. It's the reason he won the Masters two years ago. I think that, you know, if 60 to 1 is long odds for a guy who's a major champion. I know he hasn't played great majors since he broke through, but he won the last time that we had a big tournament held here. So I think he's worth looking into. And then, you know,
Starting point is 00:24:25 I know his driving accuracy has been really bad this season, but there's something about Phil Mickelson in New York, and he's 60 to one odds. He finished runner-up in both U.S. Open held here. Actually, 2002, when Tiger won and Phil came in second, that's the only time in a major that we've ever had Tiger first, Phil second, or Phil first, Tiger second. You know, four-run-run-run-run-up finishes in majors in New York.
Starting point is 00:24:48 This crowd's going to love him. You know, I don't know, something to be said for the amount of experience and the kind of drag-out fight this is going to be throughout the week in terms of, you know, the length of the course. If we have any weather delays, I don't know. I think he's worth taking a look at it. It's 60-1. I'm interested in to hear your thoughts. Well, I have a couple thoughts, and here's the thing. And this is an area that we're going to proceed into sort of cautiously.
Starting point is 00:25:14 and carefully. You never want to try and, and, and overdue the, the, the, the, the, the, but, you know, it looks like it, it may matter. And there are a couple factors that I'm, I'm going to bounce off of you and see what you think. And then, you know, there are some names that we've mentioned already that kind of fit one category versus the other in terms of, of the draw. So, a couple of unique things about Beth Page Black and, and, and, and this week, uh, the way that it's playing, a bunch of guys because of the size of the field are teeing off on the 10th hole. To get to the 10th hole at Bethpage Black, you have to get into a cart or a shuttle and drive for like 20 to 25 minutes.
Starting point is 00:25:59 So if you've gone through all of your prep, you've done all of your warm up and everything, from that moment, if you're out at the clubhouse, you have to get into a vehicle and ride all the way out to the to the 10th T. And then the T shot on 10 is a hard mother effort, Justin Ray. It's a 240 yard carry right off the bat. Now, there are a bunch of guys that tee off before 8.30 in the morning on Thursday. And I'm not sure that by tomorrow morning, the temperature at 830 in the morning is going to be north of 50 degrees. So the ball is not going to be jumping off the golf club. You know, this isn't one of these,
Starting point is 00:26:46 it ain't going to be like Memphis in July for the WGC that they're playing there. And, you know, the other thing about the guys that are teeing off in the morning tomorrow and especially the guys teeing off on 10 tomorrow morning, those are the guys that are then playing Friday afternoon. and the weather forecast originally had some showers the first part of Friday, and this was what we were looking at earlier in the week. Now it looks like those showers are coming in the afternoon on Friday. So let me just run through some of the names that have this Thursday morning before 8.30 teeing off on number 10 predicament and then perhaps some rain on Friday.
Starting point is 00:27:32 This is a couple of the names we've already mentioned. Patrick Reed is. is teeing off on 10 tomorrow morning at 7.51 a.m. Brooks Kepka, Tiger Woods, and Frankie Molinari are teeing off tomorrow morning on number 10 at 824 a.m. Tommy Fleetwood is teeing off on number 10 tomorrow morning. I don't have exactly the time. And then Bubba Watson also, and you, this is a concern. I might have to hit the brakes. He tees off at 802 a.m.
Starting point is 00:28:06 tomorrow morning on number 10. And I forgot you are absolutely right. I'm so happy that you reminded me if he doesn't like the way something's feeling to him. Now, how's Bubba going to react to that 25-minute cart ride, I wonder. So the shot on average penalizing if you missed the fairway at 10. So that's how important that T-shot is. And on the other side of this, here are the names that aren't confronted with that immediate, you know,
Starting point is 00:28:42 rear end clenching challenge john rom dj rory phil jason day all those guys get to tee off on number one in the afternoon tomorrow and then they have the the morning round on friday and i again i said before i got going on this little soliloquy here that you don't want to read too too much into this but like you know the the the type of challenge off the first tea that a bunch of the the top players the guys anticipated do great this week are confronted with. It's a little bit of an, we know it's out of the ordinary. I don't know if it's extraordinary, but I'm very, very curious to hear your thoughts. Am I reading too much into this?
Starting point is 00:29:29 You know, I think it's interesting. I think a little bit of it might depend on when the rain arrives. So that's always a total crapshoot. You know, we think we've got an idea of when it's going to get here. But it's interesting to be sure. Now, like we said with Bubba, he's the poster child for this, but different players react to adverse conditions in different ways. And, you know, I think for like Kepka and Woods, I don't think it'll be that big of a factor. But, you know, if Bobba misses T shot badly to start the week and, you know, he misses that T shot on 10 right away, you never know.
Starting point is 00:30:04 Maybe he does have a big impact. But I don't know, maybe it could be a deciding factor if you're picking between two guys. That's kind of the way I feel about if you think one wave is better than the other. But yeah, it's an interesting theory. I hadn't thought a ton about it before you introduced it to me. That's something definitely keep an eye on. And one guy that I do trust, you know, the sort of opposite of Bubba in terms of a guy that I don't feel like is going to be shaken is Patrick Reed. The one aspect of him that if he's feeling confident and he's, you know, he's, you know,
Starting point is 00:30:40 He believes in himself more than anybody on the planet. I'm not, as long as he's got the confidence with the T-ball, and we've seen in him that he's capable of losing that confidence. But if he has the, if he stripes one down the middle tomorrow morning, I'm going to, you know, I will feel,
Starting point is 00:31:00 I'm going to go ahead and sprinkle him in to a couple lineups, and I will feel validated having done so if we see him climb on the T and strike one. Let's, let's jump into. you know, another class of guys that are not the favorites, but are out there, some pretty big names, some names we've already hit in that class of 30 to 1 to kind of 40 to 1 odds. There are some great names here.
Starting point is 00:31:28 We talked about Tommy Fleetwood, currently available at 30 to 1. You mentioned Tony Fee now as a guy to just maybe be cautious of because while he hits the ball a mile, you know, you have to be accurate and accuracy isn't necessarily his top attribute.
Starting point is 00:31:46 A couple other names available right now at 40 to 1, Bryson D. Chambot and Sergio Garcia. What are your thoughts on this class of guys? I'll start with Sergio. He's been really bad in majors. That's a major championship. He doesn't have a round under part of major
Starting point is 00:32:04 in almost two years. So, I mean, that's somebody who's, since he's broken through, he hasn't really performed up to his own expectations in majors. He's actually in his last 13 major championship rounds. He's 48 over bar. So I don't think, you know, there's some guys who follow with a microscope in terms of their performances in these big events.
Starting point is 00:32:25 Sergio is not really one of them for the most part. I would avoid him until further notice in majors. You know, but that's just me, though. I know I missed it on a little cost of stuff now, but look, he's contended twice. majors in last nine months. He's in that group with Tiger at the Masters, 54-hole co-leader. We were here in New York last summer for the U.S. Open.
Starting point is 00:32:47 He crushes the golf ball, top ten in driving distance. He's got some good metrics this season in terms of approach shots with mid to long irons. I'm a little I'm kind of on the fence there. You know, there's a lot of things to like about Tony C now this week. But like at the Masters where missing fairways
Starting point is 00:33:02 has no penalty whatsoever, this is the opposite where it's going to be one of the most penalizing courses on tour if you missed Fairways. So keep that in mind if you kind of got him on your list. One guy is really interesting to me this week of the Masters is Patrick Cantley. He's top 10 this season's 13 total. Top 15 and eight of his last 10th stroke play starts.
Starting point is 00:33:23 He's really evolving into a really elite player. Last three minutes of championships finished 12, 27th night. You know, he's an interesting guy to me this week. I think he's someone you can look at at 30 to 1, 35 to 1. I've seen him in some places. I have a question about Cantlay. Now, he, we had this really interesting phenomena for about like 90 minutes on the Sunday of the Masters. It was like, I don't know what time it was because that that round got started so early in the morning.
Starting point is 00:33:54 But, you know, with the guys in the last two groups, you know, four out of six hit balls in the water, all of a sudden for about maybe it was less than 90 minutes. but we had all these guys like immediately start to be on or around the top of the leaderboard. Bubba showed up out of nowhere. DJ showed up out of nowhere. Ricky looked like he might, if he could string together a bunch of birdies at the end, looked like he was a threat. And another guy that fits this category whose name kind of showed up out of nowhere was Patrick Cantlay.
Starting point is 00:34:33 And I wonder, you know, he, he immediately got on the 17th T and he was within a shot or two of the lead and he immediately pounded one dead right and I wondered if he knew where he stood in relation to the leaderboard at that moment because he had an opportunity on Sunday at the Masters to put himself right in the mix of the in a top three kind of a performance do you do you have any concerns as it relates to him under that pressure circumstance? That's interesting. You know, I'll say something about that.
Starting point is 00:35:12 It's one of the things that's so amazing about Augusta National is the course design is set up to where there's lots of scoring opportunities in the last six, seven holes. So on Sunday, after, you know, the difficult 9th, 10th, 11th, and the guys at the top of the leaderboard who teed off last might drop a shot, leaderboard gets a little tighter, you'll think, oh, my God, there's 15 guys within three shots of the lead, and it seems like this is amazing, and it is entertaining, but those leaders still have
Starting point is 00:35:40 those Bernie opportunities in front of them. So it could be a little bit misleading as to who really, you know, really, you know, has a chance to win the tournament. That being said, you know, Patrick Campbell made the cut on the number at the Masters and had a legitimate chance. You're bored and, oh, oh, man, I'm one shot back on the
Starting point is 00:36:00 71st Boc, I don't know. I don't know if you saw that or not. And, you know, those stats at 17 and 18 at August are crucial and difficult and nerve-wracking. So he doesn't have a ton of – I'll say this dude. Now, Tony Kee now only has one TGA tour win, and it was in Puerto Rico. Patrick Cantlay's win was in Vegas two years ago. I mean, he doesn't have, you know, a lot of marquee, you know, pedigree at the top of leaderboards. He's not – I know someone I'd say, you know, Brooks Kepka didn't really do that a whole lot either,
Starting point is 00:36:33 but Kefka won all over the world. He won the Dunlop Phoenix in Japan. He was one of the European tour a couple of times. So he doesn't really fit that mold of like Cantlay or feet out. But, you know, maybe that's something that's taken into consideration, you know, especially if you're coming down a stretch and you're facing DJ and Tiger Woods, you know, Patrick Cantlay may not be someone who stands up to the fire, but kind of an unbelievable amateur pedigree.
Starting point is 00:36:57 So I think it's a matter of time for he breaks through. It's a multiple-time winner, and I think he's a major in his career. agree with you on all of those last point and I'm going to elect to subscribe. I'm a glass half full kind of guy and you just reminded us he made the cut on the number
Starting point is 00:37:15 and then here we are talking about him as a threat, you know, he was among the top five names on a leaderboard on Sunday with a handful of holes left. So let's do the glass half full thing and just give him credit for working his way right back into the top of the tournament, the Masters,
Starting point is 00:37:32 you know, after making the cut on the number. Nothing to sneeze at. Nothing to sneeze at. All right. So any other names in that class? Very good.
Starting point is 00:37:44 You sent me an email and you were bullish on Sergio. I'm sorry if I talked to you off that completely. Well, here's the thing. And I love his, he has three top ten performances at Bethpage.
Starting point is 00:37:56 And, you know, his metrics coming in, he's been in form in everything other than the major. I mean, his T4, at Quail Hollow was good.
Starting point is 00:38:06 We know that he can hit hit the ball a mile. There's a top 20. You can get plus odds on Sergio as a top 20 play. And I'm still committed to that, even though you gave a lot of caution. So everybody, tap, tap the brakes, everybody. Don't take out half your mortgage and put it on Sergio to top 20. But he was available at plus 130 right now to finish inside the top 20.
Starting point is 00:38:32 If there's a venue where he's comfortable. and he's going to break through perhaps it's this. The interesting thing about Sergio at this venue, I mean, one of the great Bethpage moments with the New York crowds, we recall, I think it was the 2009 open, where he was really fighting his waggles
Starting point is 00:38:53 and the amount of time that he stood over the ball. And, you know, he's up there and he's doing his thing, going through his routine. It's probably 25, 30 seconds. And he takes his shot and you hear from the background, we waited all that time for that it's a guy with a gold chain
Starting point is 00:39:09 and a black sweats, a velour sweatshoes, just a spectacular, iconic Beth Page kind of moment. But, you know, maybe, you know, Sergio did sort of get a redemption
Starting point is 00:39:22 when he won the Masters. He became beloved again, but since then there's been a couple other hiccups along the way. I don't know where he fits in terms of the public eye, what kind of support he'll get out there at Beth Page. this week, but, you know, he's comfortable playing there with all those top 10. So I like that top 20 kind of angle if you're going to, if you're going to jump on Sergio
Starting point is 00:39:42 at all. Yeah, I'd agree with that. I could definitely see that happen. Okay. So let's just get into some guys that like, you know, we're in a 20 to 1 to 30 to 1 class. And these are some classy names. We've already mentioned Tommy Fleetwood. Oh, no, that was he was in the previous category.
Starting point is 00:40:00 So 20 to 1, let's say the 29 to 1. Here are the guys that are available in that class. And we've got major winners in here. Frankie Molinari currently available at 28 to 1. Jason Day, currently available 22 to 1. And this big game hunter, not a major winner yet, but feels like one is coming. Zander Shafley available at 28 to 1. Who do you like in this section of the sheet?
Starting point is 00:40:30 Well, so Zander, you said big game hunter. He's played eight majors. and he's finished six-throw. I mean, he's won a tour championship. He won a tournament of champions. Those are smaller fields, but he beat great players in those events. He's a really good driver of the golf ball. He's top 35 or so in driving distance.
Starting point is 00:40:48 He's not seen off the key. That's well, well above average. His big to long higher numbers are pretty good as well. Love this big events. You know, I think Xander is really intriguing this week. And there's no reason to believe that he won't be part of the mix. You mentioned Frankie Molanari. The guy just doesn't make mistakes.
Starting point is 00:41:05 you know, he's, he's averaged less than one and a half bogeys per round over the last three majors, which is insane. It's by far the best of any player in that span. It's tough of him aside based on just how he's played in the majors over the last 18 months or so. You know, he contended at Quail Hollow and Justin Thomas won. Obviously, he contended at Belfaree when Kepka won, and then, you know, we all know what's all. So those are the two guys that I kind of see.
Starting point is 00:41:35 circled in that range that I like a lot. Jason Day is still one of the best putters in the world. If he's fully healthy, feels good, I know he's battling some injuries early on the year. When you get to kind of a, I know we've talked a lot about the conditions and the fact that it may and the weather is not great. You know,
Starting point is 00:41:53 that gave me a little bit of trepidation about Jason at that number, but, you know, if he's driving the ball at his best, he can beat anybody in the world. He's statistically, over the last four or five years, he's probably the best putter on the planet. So I circled Xander and Frankie.
Starting point is 00:42:09 Those are the two guys that I think in that range of a really good shot at winning this week. Okay. I like those two as well. And they're going to be included in a handful of my allocation of capital here. We're going to get to the favorites. But there's two names we've mentioned before that I know that you like. And these guys, I'm looking at the board right now. One guy's at 20 to 1 and one guys at 16 to 1.
Starting point is 00:42:32 John Rom, currently available at 20 to 1. You've mentioned a couple times that you have your eye on him. Why do you like John Rom here? John Rom is one of the most underrated drivers of the golf ball on the planet. And, I mean, he's got kind of a short back swing, so it makes that the spot is visually appealing as like when DJ's got his long language twin or when Rory goes after drive. But he's second on the BGA, Thor and he broke came off the key.
Starting point is 00:42:56 He was second last year and he was third year before. That's his whole time as a pro. He's an incredible driver of the golf ball and has the ability to pick it apart any golf course, especially something like this, pick it apart off the key. It's about 65% of the fairways this season. That's well above average. I like him a lot of this situation. Also, over the last two major championships, he has the third best,
Starting point is 00:43:18 stimulus sport apart. The only two guys better are Kepka and Tiger, the two guys who won both of the two majors. So he's kind of quietly become, you know, he's got a reputation of being hot-tempered, but he's really, for lack of a better word, he's tempered. that a little bit the last, you know, six, nine, twelve months in these big events. And he's starting to put
Starting point is 00:43:41 everything together. All the town of the world, former number one neighbor in the world, he's won all over the place. Got a win already this year. You know, I like John Rod a lot this week. I think he's got a chance to pick up his first major championship. Wow. At 20 to one odds,
Starting point is 00:43:56 I am going to hang up after this dialogue and get on the book before the odds go down. People are going to hear this and the odds are going to go in the wrong direction. What about Ricky? Could it be Ricky's time here at Beth Page Black? Man, it's just, I feel like, I feel like this, so for about nine years, every time I did an interview, podcast, radio hit, whatever, I was asked, is Tiger Woods going to win another major? The new question that I'm going to get, I feel like, is, is Ricky Fowler going to win a major?
Starting point is 00:44:28 I mean, he basically has to. He has more top five without a win than any player in the major championships over the last 30 years. That's a crazy statistic. The fact that he's been so close so often. He's coming off of two really good finishes. He was ninth of the masters. He was fourth at Wells Fargo, so he's a pretty good form. You know, he can, he won at the Phoenix Open when he had that big lead and then the conditions
Starting point is 00:44:50 got nasty on Sunday. You know, you've got to say it's going to happen sooner rather than later. You know, he won the player's championship against the lead field on a really difficult golf course. He's won the Scottish Open and bad conditions. condition. He's contended at the Open Championship a couple of times when it's been nasty out. So that stuff doesn't
Starting point is 00:45:09 bother him. Wynn doesn't bother him. He gets the ball a long way. You know, he's a guy who's kind of under the radar this week, too. I mean, with kind of a side effect of Tiger Woods winning the Masters and, you know, even as lower level as successful as Borks, Kepka's been
Starting point is 00:45:25 in the majors the last few years, guys like Dustin and Ricky and even like John Rom are being talked a whole lot going to the championship. So, I always say it seems cliche. It's a matter of time. You know, he hasn't missed a cut yet this year on tour. Top 10 and almost half of his starts.
Starting point is 00:45:41 You know, I wouldn't be surprised to be contented this week. But, you know, there's so many big names playing so well. And I don't know, it's tough to say at a number that you say, what, he's 20 to 1, 25 to 1? 16, 16. So maybe those aren't that we're not getting enough. We're not getting enough juice there to make it worth our while. That's not a good reflection. I've seen Rory at 12.
Starting point is 00:46:04 You know, Rory at 12 is one of the favorites at 10. I mean, I like Ricky a lot. I mean, I think he can contend, but I don't know if that number is worth it. We need to be compensated a bit more for that risk if we're going to jump on Ricky. I mean, we like them and we're rooting for them,
Starting point is 00:46:19 but maybe it's a testament to how much the public loves the guy, too. You're right about that for sure. All right. Let's talk about it, who the public loves. We are finally on, on the favorites here. And, you know, it's Tiger, it's Brooks, it's DJ.
Starting point is 00:46:40 And are we sleeping on Rory? This is at the moment I have the sheet up. It's Brooks at 10 to 1, Tiger at 10 to 1, DJ at 11 to 1 and Rory at 12 to 1. Is this, let me pose it this way to you. And I sort of wonder about this. If there was a reason to fade the favorites, this week. Is it possible that the size of the field,
Starting point is 00:47:10 the lack of, you know, the quality of the field, 99 of the 100 in the official world golf rankings? And the leveling of the playing field, kind of literally in the sense that there is no precedent for Beth Page in May, in these conditions. We don't have any, data to tell us anything about how it's going to play.
Starting point is 00:47:37 We don't know what to we anticipate. Does that have a leveling effect in terms of, you know, the sort of value of the favorites here? What do you think? It's a good question. I would counter, though, with the fact that we've seen so many great players breakthrough. I'll refer to the nine straight top 50 ranked players,
Starting point is 00:47:57 18 of the last 19 major winners who are in the top 25. I don't know, it just feels like themselves a little bit. And this is a venue where, you know, as long as it's going to play for, you know, the elite players in the world have hit it a long way.
Starting point is 00:48:16 I think, I think it's going to be a week we're going to have more of kind of like what we saw at Belrieve where, you know, the guys like Kepka, Tiger, Molinari, Adam Scott contended,
Starting point is 00:48:25 you know, guys who are experienced and can hit the ball a long way is less success. I don't know. I mean, yeah, I think there is validity, though,
Starting point is 00:48:33 to the fact, such a long, it's a deep, field. There's so many great players there. The fact that we don't have a ton of precedent. I mean, we've got events at Best Age, but I mean, you know, that U.S. Open was 10 years ago
Starting point is 00:48:48 and the playoff events were it's more set up for in a different time of year. Yeah, totally. It's more set up for birdies and excitement and it's not going to be. Yeah, that's an interesting thought, but I don't know. I'm kind of split there. I don't really have a great answer for you.
Starting point is 00:49:07 I think that, you know, like I said, I think the top of the game has separated himself just a bit from the guys of the 50, 60, 70s, in the world ranking. But, you know, like I also said, I think we're long overdue for a Lucas Glover or, you know, Michael Campbell or somebody who we completely didn't see coming to win a major.
Starting point is 00:49:27 So that's a terrible answer, but we've seen these guys. The cream does rise to the top. And, you know, it's not that big of a shock that we saw Tiger and Frankie Molinari together at Carnusti playing in, you know, crazy sort of adverse conditions, all the best that the British Open can muster in terms of, you know, a nasty venue with a lot of wind and balls that run forever. And then we see both those guys together again in April, you know, at Augusta. That's just confirming your point about, you know, the top of the food chain here,
Starting point is 00:50:06 separating itself from the rest. The conditions don't necessarily, you know, if, you, if, these great guys can do it anywhere. How are we supposed to pick between those four guys, though? Help me think about one or two things that might tilt the selection process as between, you know, Brooks and Tiger and DJ and Rory. Because to me, like, I just, it requires such fine splitting of hairs to choose one. I cannot, in good conscience, pick against either Tiger or Brooks. but, you know, who hits the ball farther than DJ and who's a better driver of the golf ball
Starting point is 00:50:47 in the last, say, eight or nine months than Rory. So I just can't, you know, the splitting of hairs here is so fine. Help us out here. Help me try and come up with a couple things, a couple principles here to pick one versus the other. All right. I'll do my best, too. I think for DJ, this is like the quietest world number one coming off a runner-up finish
Starting point is 00:51:08 at the Masters that I can ever remember. I mean, no one is talking about, I don't think, nearly enough about how well this guy's played. It's probably because the last round he played competitively was at Harbor Town and he just shot 77, just played awful with the lead in the final round. But the guy finished second at the Masters. I mean, and he's Dustin Johnson, you know, drive the ball as good or better than anybody in the world. He's also, I don't think people have recognized how much better his putting's gotten. He's in the top 10 on the PGA tour this season, the third game putting.
Starting point is 00:51:40 he has never sniffed that before in his career. That's a terrifying proposition if Dustin Johnson becomes an elite putter. He's always been kind of an underrated above average putter statistically, but if he's in that top 10 that Ricky Fowler, Jason Day, rarefied error, that's a problem for the rest of the golf world. I've got all these notes written down about all four of these guys. The problem is they're all great. It's going to be tough to discern between who to pick.
Starting point is 00:52:08 like Brooks Kefka, last nine majors, he's done something that only Tiger Woods has done over the last 60 years. The last nine majors he's played, he has three wins, no miss cuts, and a scoring average of 69.5. Tiger's the only player to do that over the last six decades.
Starting point is 00:52:27 Years are the last PGA at Baltimore. That's how good he's been. You know, he's contending every time he tees up in a major, his strokes game per round since the beginning of 2017 in majors is half a shot better than any other player. Tiger is the best iron player in the world the last nine months or so
Starting point is 00:52:45 and then you look at Rory who I think should be a co-favorit along with DJ Brooks and Tiger I think it should be four-way co-favorites I'm sure it moves based on what the action is but you know Rory's only finished outside the top 10 this year was at the Masters he's playing the most consistent golf of his life I've talked to Paul McGinley former European
Starting point is 00:53:05 Ryder Cup captain this was before the Masters and he said I think I even said it on the Masters podcast ever played in his life from Paul's known him since he was a kid. I think the pressure of trying to complete the grand slam and, you know, a lot of the weight that goes into when Rory goes to Augusta National, that might wait on him just a little bit,
Starting point is 00:53:25 and he just got beat by a collection of guys who played better than him that week. But, you know, his numbers across the board, like he's by far the best striker at the golf ball on the PGA tour this year, off the T, tea, tea to green, however where he's slice it, he's the best. So, man, it's tough.
Starting point is 00:53:41 I mean, the one thing I would point too. It's more anecdotal than analytical, but like I said earlier, you wonder how Tiger's back's going to react to cold weather. He's documented how long his process is to get ready for the championship for any kind of competition, really, just to play golf. Is that process elongated? Does he feel 43 years old this week, which he obviously didn't at the Masters? I will say, too, nobody's won two majors in the season ever older than age 41. Markomir is the oldest guy to do it. So, look, he's got no,
Starting point is 00:54:16 Tiger's very familiar with shattering every record that exists. So it's not like, it's not like that's a huge wall there, but it does speak to, you know, how difficult this would be going to be tough. It's tough for anyone. The other thing, too, Tigers
Starting point is 00:54:33 never won amazingly the PGA championship in the Masters of the same season, which is something he could do this week. The last guy to do was Jack in the mid-70s. So that kind of speaks to me. in the variance of courses we see in the PGA championship every year. It's different kind of setup and can favor different players year to year. But it's really tough for me to separate those four guys.
Starting point is 00:54:54 But if DJ putts like he has been, that might be the guy I would take out of those four. Okay, that's great. I mean, if we're just putting hairs, if we're looking for a reason, I'm going to play Tiger top five because I only want to live in a world where Tiger is threatening to win every major that he plays in from here on out. Like, can you imagine if he won? Like, just pandemonium. That's right.
Starting point is 00:55:18 The match was amazing, obviously, but you could kind of understand it with the smaller, a little bit smaller feel, the place he's won a zillion times. I know he's won two majors here. He's won a major here. He's had past success at Bethpage, but I can't even wrap my brain around the fact that if he was to win the first two majors the year, then you've got to think he's an overwhelming favorite at Pebble Beach, you know? Goodness gracious.
Starting point is 00:55:43 Yeah. Crazy is the word for it. If you're looking for a reason for him to not maybe be the one, and I don't know why you would, you animal, and that's not you, that's the listener. This thing you mentioned about, you know, you reminded me of his preparation. I do wonder like what strategy he has
Starting point is 00:56:06 because he's one of the guys who has to ride out to 10 tomorrow morning. I wonder if he's got like, you know, a massage table already out there positioned in inside of a tent you know he's got a tiger tent with his physio there ready for him so as the glutes are activated and he's ready to ready to go because he's not going to you know with his meticulous preparation he's already thought about all of this I'm positive and he's not going to walk up to that tea with driver in hand and feel uncomfortable or or out of sorts because of the cart ride or something having to do with his preparation so it's it's a It's kind of a fascinating thing.
Starting point is 00:56:45 I haven't seen. Let me see if there's a tiger prop up here. There is a prop here, brother Ray. Tiger Woods T-shot hits the fairway, the first hole that he plays in round one. Yes is minus 130. That's the public-loving tiger. But no is even odds. And we've talked about how hard 10 is and how hard it is to make par.
Starting point is 00:57:13 from the rough here. He's got the cart right in front of him. It's going to be maybe barely 50 degrees. I don't know. This is what I never want to root against Tiger under any circumstances, but this might be one where at even odds I might squeeze a little. You know, 40 on the foot, right, the 97 masters. Yeah, we all heard it for 25 years.
Starting point is 00:57:39 So, you know, maybe that's something you look at, that first seat shot. Justin Ray, we did not start slow. and this preview of the 2019 PGA Championship. My brother, thank you again, as always, for coming on Fairway, Roland, and helping us figure out a couple of ways to allocate a little capital,
Starting point is 00:58:01 pick a couple of long shots. Let's produce some winners this week. And where do we get the 15th Club information this week? You can go to 15th Club.com, and we'll have to cover it all week long. Got a lot of great preview content on there and I'm going to have recap information after every round like we get at the Masters. And also on Twitter, I'm at Justin Ray
Starting point is 00:58:22 Golf. I'll be there at that page all week. You're going to get more tweets than you could possibly want, all the information you could possibly want covering the golf tournament. So, yeah, head on to 15th Club.com, find me on Twitter, find yourself on Twitter at 15th Club. Spectacular. As always, thank you so much for coming on, my guy. Yeah, thanks for having me, bud. of course. All right, all my thanks again to Justin Gray. We're going to get to Harry in one second and against all lives try and come up with some winners before we get there. My friends,
Starting point is 00:58:58 it's a major week. It's a major venue. New York can barely stand the anticipation. One New York guy who couldn't take it anymore, Calloway's own A.J. Vopel went out to Beth Page Black a few weeks ago right before they closed the course down to the public, and he shot a mini documentary Homecoming back to Beth Page Black. This is a guy whose perspective. He grew up playing the Black. He's a former local.
Starting point is 00:59:28 He gives us a relatable take on what it's like to experience Beth Page Black. It is the perfect way as you watch the course over the entirety of the next four days. Go ahead and get the local relatable flavor to wet your appetite. He is going out to a New York deli and getting one of those delicious, amazing egg sandwiches. Of course, he does the sleeping in the car thing where he's trying to get his best tea time.
Starting point is 00:59:55 This documentary, back to Bethpage Black, available now at Calawaygolf.com as well as golf channel.com back to Bethpage Black. Now let's talk to Harry. Ladies and gentlemen, now on the tea from Oswego, New York. He is the assistant to the beverage director at the Oswego Country Club. Harry Ganyal, welcome to Fairway Rolling. Always a pleasure. Always a pleasure house.
Starting point is 01:00:26 This is great. So H-Dog, it's serious now. We are in the thick of our preparation for another major championship. We are hours away from balls in the air. and so what you and I are about to talk about, these picks we're about to give out, these have genuine financial consequences. So let's try and do the best we can.
Starting point is 01:00:55 Huge ramifications, huge. Now, so speaking of huge ramifications, let's start with the hugest, and that is none other than Eldrick Tiger Woods. Well, let me hear it. Can Tiger? win again, according to Harry. Well, you know what?
Starting point is 01:01:16 I know when the week after he got done playing at the players, and we discussed it and said he was close, and we had seen something special going on with him, and we thought he might have a chance. I said it on that episode afterwards of Fairway Rowland, that he has a chance. He could do something magical at the Masters, and we saw something that we've never seen before.
Starting point is 01:01:43 It was something like it was storybook ending, you know. But the only thing is it's going to keep going here, I think. Look, he's, it's scoring average at Best Page Black over his career. It is a 70. He'll take that. He won the U.S. Open there, as we know, in 2002. And in 2009, he finished six there. He likes the course.
Starting point is 01:02:04 And I've read everything I've read, the course is not going to be as difficult. they're not going to do certain things that they do with the U.S. Open, with the fairways and everything. It's going to be open so he can still do what he wants in terms of driving the ball. I mean, look, there's another stat out there too. There are
Starting point is 01:02:23 only three people in history that have gone first major, second major in their career to start the season. That was Jack in 72, speeded at it in 15, and Tiger hit the Masters, obviously,
Starting point is 01:02:39 in 2002, and then like I just said, he hit Bethpage Black for the U.S. Open in 2002. So it's set up for Tiger to do it again. And, you know, just to let you know, too, the Tiger stats here, the odds for him with 2019 majors, he's already got the one, obviously. So if you want to take him and say that he's not going to win, you've got to put up 350 to win 100, if you don't think he's going to win another one. But for two, it's plus 250, 3, 12 to 1. that's interesting.
Starting point is 01:03:11 And then obviously all of them is 50 to 1, but three is interesting at 12 to 1. I'm telling you, he's got a great chance this week. Well, what do you like as the third? If we give him this one, what do you think is going to be the third? Well, it could be interesting, too. He's one there, plenty, too.
Starting point is 01:03:29 Yeah, could be. Could be interesting. You're not going to get any argument for me. He's right there. He and Brooks are at the top at 10 to 1. now you're not going to get me to say anything bad about Tiger so what I'm going to do what I'm going to say is what I'm willing to do at this juncture which is just bet him to win I mean I'm just bet him for a top five finish that's plus two 17 right now so better than two to one odds for a top five out of Tiger that feels like to me my my my wildest dreams my wildest my um my my imagination run wild is Tiger Woods coming in on Sunday. Maybe again, not even in the lead, but going out and taking the lead and running away from the pack on Sunday.
Starting point is 01:04:22 And what that would do, both in terms of the golfing fan, the golf public, but really just the entire sporting public. I mean, the outpouring of admiration and devotion to him. for having, you know, conquered a bunch of his demons and for, you know, this stage of life becoming once again a master's champion. It was an incredible outpouring. And honestly, I support his decision to not play another event between the Masters and now because he really needed, you know, a handful of weeks to kind of get over the adrenaline rush of a conquering hero and then needed to go ahead and get his game, you know, back in, in kind of tournament shape without any distraction over the last couple of few weeks. And I've very much been impressed with
Starting point is 01:05:19 what I've heard and observed about his practice at Beth Page. It's apparent that he loves Beth Page and that Beth Page loves him back. So Harry... Oh, yeah, he's been practicing since Sunday from what I've heard. Yes. I'm practicing every day. at least nine holes since Sunday. The weather hasn't been great. So it's also, you know, it's supposed to be a little bit better. Obviously, a lot better, actually, as the week goes on. So it's going to be a difference in clubs.
Starting point is 01:05:45 But, you know, you just definitely have to try different things for your whole arsenal. And he's been there. Like, you just said, I don't disagree with your theory either, where he's taken basically a month off since the masters, recoup, figure out stuff, and it's focused on this. That's it. So I'm only doing a top five bet at this point. plus better than two to one odds for him in the top five.
Starting point is 01:06:07 That's going to be my tip of the cap. And then we'll see how it plays out. There's always live betting options each day. If something dramatic happens, we can jump in on the live bet. Now, let's just, speaking of jumping in, we have Tiger where we have them.
Starting point is 01:06:22 Are you going to allocate any capital to Tiger before we move on here? You know what? I'm still contemplating what I'm doing with everybody yet. I'm probably tonight it's going to be where I sit down and I really focus I'm looking at matchups
Starting point is 01:06:39 I'm looking at you know top top suite I'm looking at top agents I'm looking at everything you know so I got a bunch of different things I'll figure a lot of stuff out tonight
Starting point is 01:06:48 and I'll probably post to that AAO Harry on Twitter so I'll have all those picks for me for everybody to if they want to take them take them if they don't they don't they don't do pretty good in the master so we'll see
Starting point is 01:06:59 yeah at AAO Harry the picks will be up. You and I'm not going to put myself in your class, but we are chefs. You're a great chef. I'm an okay chef. And what we're doing with these picks for these majors, we're just building a menu.
Starting point is 01:07:16 So, you know, there's going to be a couple appetizers in the top 20 range. There's going to be an appetizer or two in some of these props that we like. And then we'll get a little more serious with kind of small plates that cover some guys at kind of longer odds, and then we're going to have an entree or two. I mean, we're big eaters, but we're making a menu here, so we're just looking for some value
Starting point is 01:07:39 before the tournament starts with a delicious, you know, upfront menu, and then the meal will go how it goes, and we might on the fly make a couple of, you know, amendments and ads and subtracts as we go along. We'll see which,
Starting point is 01:07:55 you know, how our golf bellies guide us, right, right, brother? Sure. Oh, absolutely. And I'm usually hungry, so. Well, this is why we get along. I'm usually hungry.
Starting point is 01:08:06 So let's get serious. We're going to do the Epic Flash pick of the week. This is your, and you can have a couple of few picks, because again, like I say, we're great chefs. We're building menus. Epic Flash driver by Callaway featuring the revolutionary flash-based technology created using artificial intelligence and machine learning. You and I are using both of those techniques to try and come up with. with our picks here. Calloway uses those to promote faster ball speeds all across the face. The Epic Flash models continue to have the most worldwide wins of any driver model in 2019.
Starting point is 01:08:45 It's the number one selling driver model in these United States, according to Gulf Data Tech. And these are two names, Harry, that are playing the Epic Flash sub-zero. One name is Frankie Molinari, Frankie Onions, and the other is Zaner. Shalphley. Two interesting names. Now, I'm going to let you go first, and then I have a couple names that I'm going to share. What do you like? What are you doing here? I know where we're still building the menu, but let's start naming some names. Well, I'm going to, it's unfortunate, you know, it's not great odds here, but it's 10 to 1, Brooks Kepta. Look, how he can't be denied. He just can't deny this guy. He's a major machine. Since 2015, the PGA championship, he's
Starting point is 01:09:29 finished in the top 20 in 12 of the last 14 majors. And the two he didn't finish in the top 10, top 20? He finished 21st and 39. And obviously, we know he's won three at the last five, which includes losing to Tiger by one stroke in this year's masters. During this run of 15 majors, his average score on closing day on Sunday is an amazing 68.7. So you're only getting 10 to 1 for Kepka, but still, the guy is there no matter what. When it's major time, he shows up, he's there. Look, I also have at 22 to 1, I've got Ricky Fowler. Ricky is 30 years old now. It doesn't seem like it, but he is. He's not no spring chicken anymore. He's 30 years old. He still has zero majors. When is he going to break through? He's going to put himself in contention this
Starting point is 01:10:21 week, I feel, since he's fifth in the tour and scoring average at 69.7, he's got a first in Phoenix this year. He's got a second, a fourth in 2019. He's got five top ten. Finish ninth at the Masters. Come on, Ricky. It's time, man. It's time. Be there on Sunday for everybody. I'm going to join you on a little Ricky Love. He led the event in 2016 through 54 holes at Beth Page. So we know that he's comfortable at Beth Page. And we also know this is a little bit of a sneaky stat to just add to the to the Ricky flavor. top 20s in his last
Starting point is 01:10:59 nine majors. So if you're just clock in top 20s when you're playing majors, you're doing something right. So I like the way you're thinking about Ricky, especially at that price. That's a good price right now. At 22 to 1, that's a heck of a price, right? And I'm, you know what?
Starting point is 01:11:15 I'm also making, I don't know why I always go back to the well here. I'm making a case for Rory McRoy at 12. Wow. Wow. Yeah, you know, in 2009, the U.S. Open, he finished 10th at that stage. he's first on the tour off the T, which will be extremely important for his confidence for a golfer who has always talked about, you know. But Rory is in a major slump, if you want to call it that in majors himself.
Starting point is 01:11:42 It's been five years now since he won the Open and the Royal Liverpool. So it's been a little bit of a slump there for him. So let's see if playing in the States full-time pays off Rory on this course. You know, Joe, I think Rory feels a little disappointed with the way he played at Augusta. And I think he's going to be focused here all four days. So let's see if he can make a run come Sunday as well. Well, you know, it is funny. He did leave a bad taste in everybody's mouth with the way that he finished at the Masters.
Starting point is 01:12:12 And it wasn't like his performance at Quail Hollow blew anybody away and immediately reminded everybody. But he's still at the top of every statistical category that matters for this 2018, 2019 season. I mean, he's been. isn't it? So you can't, yeah, you can't, it's hard to point out bad things, but, you know, he does get doubles when he, when he shouldn't be getting doubles a lot of times. It's eventually come back to haunt him because he's been great with Eagles this year, too. He's right at the top of leaderboard for Eagles, uh, on tour, but, but, but, but just, it's,
Starting point is 01:12:45 whatever it is, you're right. He says, stats look great, but it's just not equating to wins. I, exactly right. Um, so I'm not touching Rory. Uh, I am, going to put a little on on fouler and what I'm going to do with Kepka. I'm going to do the same thing with Kepka that I'm doing with Tiger. I'm going to play Kepka and Tiger both as top fives and you know what else I'm going to do, H-Dog?
Starting point is 01:13:09 What's that? I'm going to parlay those men. I'm going to parlay those top fives. Tiger I would hope that you would, yes. Why? The parlay kid I know I get a nod of approval from the parley kid. You take Tiger
Starting point is 01:13:24 top five. You parlay that. with Brooks Kepka top five, that is better than nine to one odds. And all they have to do is for you, T5 counts, Harry, right? Anything five to one counts. So that's nine to one odds you get. That makes me feel a little bit better value-wise and betting outright win. Because it's the one challenge that we have with this in terms of betting the favorites in this event is it's different from the masters in a couple of different ways.
Starting point is 01:13:54 first of all, the field is like double the size of the masters and, you know, a ton more guys get cut at this thing. But it is, you know, the masters and Augusta National provide, because they play the exact same course every single year, a certain level of predictability through a whole variety of playing conditions. So if you know generally what the weather is going to look like, you can really kind of start funneling guys. and come up with, you know, 10 to 15 contenders. This thing, because it's such a giant golf course and, you know, the playing conditions
Starting point is 01:14:37 are absolutely unprecedented in the sense that we don't have any data about Bethpage being played in May. And I feel like that might have an equalizing effect that diminishes the value of the top, guys here, the favorites, in a way that really produces just a, you know, a lack of value altogether.
Starting point is 01:15:01 There's too much variability. There's too much unpredictability. We have for the first time in the history of major tournament play, all 100 of the top 100 players in the official world golf rankings are in this event. So you just, my concern is that the venue and the weather are going to represent kind of a great equalizer and level of playing field and make it sort of a kind of venue opportunity for all but maybe up to 30 guys, maybe 35 guys and very plausible to me that a first time winner. That's why I liked your, your, your, your, your, Ricky Fowler play. Now, so for me, I have two guys that I'm looking at.
Starting point is 01:15:48 one of them is a guy who just keeps playing great at U.S. opens. And because there is kind of a attention here with the Bethpage Black venue, all it does is, you know, it's been a U.S. Open host. And we know sort of ideology-wise that the USGA and the PGA, the PGA of America wants these guys to go out and show their skill. They want to encourage birdies. but Beth Page Black is not a golf course for birdies.
Starting point is 01:16:22 PAR is a good score on these holes. I think that the total, the winning score is going to be in the 4 under or 5 under or 6 under max range. They're playing it at par 70, which is the way they played the U.S. Opens. So I look for a guy with genuine chops in U.S. opens and a name in a price range that I like is Tommy Fleetwood available at 30 to 1. He just hosted the British Masters last week in the UK. He finished inside the top 10.
Starting point is 01:16:53 So he's very much in form. And inside the top 10 finish going along with all of his hosting duties. We know what he's done the last two U.S. opens, you know, beautiful performance at Shinnecock and an outstanding performance at Aaron Hills as well. And he is, you know, he's got a couple of great metrics that I'd like for this. particular venue. He's fourth on tour and strokes gain T to green. And he's second in scrambling. I love this stat for this particular venue. I think scrambling for par at Bethpage Black is going to be a real pathway to success. The other guy I like is the X-Man. We can't, we can't sleep on the X-Man
Starting point is 01:17:40 anymore. Now, I didn't sleep on him. I had him as a top 10 at the Masters at better than three to one odds. He hit. That was a that was a big winner and he was really sniffing around on Sunday. I had him, I had played him at better than 40 to one odds as a winner or a couple of moments there. I was like, is is Andrew Schaftley really going to win the masters? Now, it didn't happen, but you just can't ignore, you know, he's, he, all he does is make the cut when he plays majors. All he does is collect top six finishes. He's played eight majors and he's finished in the top six in half of them. And the tournaments that he's won, he's won a WGC event.
Starting point is 01:18:22 He's won the tour championship down in Atlanta. And he won the tournament of champions, which is a limited field thing out in Hawaii. He likes being on a big stage and, you know, showing what he's got available right now at 28 to 1 odds. He also ranks inside the top 20 in two categories that are going to be important here. And I give a quick tip of the hat to my boy, Pat Mayo at fantasynational.com. And I totally agree with this assessment. Proximity gain from 75 to 100 yards. He's inside the top 20.
Starting point is 01:18:57 Why is proximity gained from 75 to 100? hundred yards relevant because H-dog, you're going to need him to be saving par from potentially the rough. Guys are going to have to chip out from bad lies in the rough at this thing and then get up and down from that distance. The other thing he's got, he's inside the top 20 on 200 plus yard shots. So you know this thing's got all these par fours that are 450, 500 yards. long, you're going to have to hit long irons.
Starting point is 01:19:32 This inside the top 20 from my main man, Zander Schaughley, I like it very much. He is available right this second at 28 to 1. The X-Man is my second epic flash pick of the week. I'll tell you what, I like that too. I mean,
Starting point is 01:19:47 you can't deny the guy. He's got four, he's only 25. We've got four tour victories. And like you said, they haven't been, these are meaningful wins, too. These are big tournaments that he steps it up that you know what uh i think he's a quality play definitely a 28 to 1 that's spectacular value so let let let's we we've got those picks out of the way uh we compare notes ahead of time
Starting point is 01:20:11 let's let's have some fun let's go ahead and give out some stuff uh here that that that might catch folks uh it's off the beaten path kind of stuff we both like a couple guys in that in that top 20 category who do you have uh let let me hear you in your in your top 20 kind of plays what do you looking at. Yeah, real quick. You know, I got two guys here. Number one, I got Francisco Molinarre. He had a great master's, but still, I'm sure he's still feeling the sting from folding on the back nine at Augusta, and he can't wait for Thursday. So at minus 1.25, I like him for the top 20. And on against a lot, it's our podcast with Cousin Sal. I know you like Sergio a lot. I like Sergio. Like, like I said, I text you a
Starting point is 01:20:59 last night. He was plus 170 yesterday in the afternoon. And then all of a sudden, you give out the winner. You give out this pick. And now of a sudden, people are all over your pick and shot it down to plus 130. So I like that too, though. At the top, at the top 20 pick,
Starting point is 01:21:15 I like Sergio. He finished at the U.S. Open in 2009 at Beth Pace Black. He finished 10th there. He's 14th on Tour Tide Green, which will help him impressively eighth in scoring average.
Starting point is 01:21:33 I just think that, you know what, lately he's been playing well finally. It's been a while for him to get rolling, but he finished fourth to Wells Bargo Championship, second in New Orleans. Let's keep an eye out for this almost 40-year-old ex-masters champion. I think Sergio hangs around and gets something done here
Starting point is 01:21:50 and plays well, and a plus whatever you can get at, plus 130, plus 170, top 20. I think Sergio hangs this time. So look, when it comes to Sergio, six straight miss cuts at the majors, and we heard Justin Ray 48 over par, that is not a great major track record. But what we like about Sergio is he's clearly comfortable
Starting point is 01:22:14 at Beth Page Black, three straight top 10 finishes. And so all we're talking about here is a top 20 play at plus odds. I think if there's going to be a place where he snaps out of this string of bad major performances. Beth Page Black, a top 10 place for Sergio could be it, Harry. The other guy that I'm going to play as a top 20, he's still available. I'm looking right now available at nearly two to one odds. He's plus 197.
Starting point is 01:22:46 And this is a, you know, this is a hit or miss. But he has good performances at, at Beth Page. And that is Bubba Watson. Bubba's played three times at Beth Page and all three of his finishes inside the top 20. We also know that the thing that holds Bubba back is his putting, but there is a significant difference in his strokes gain putting when he's putting on the greens that consists of the grass that is present at Beth Page Black, and that is the Poa Annua. Now, I'm sure that I mispronounced it.
Starting point is 01:23:26 But the two times this year that Bubba has putted on Poa, that's at the Genesis and Riviera out there in Los Angeles, and then at the WGC event down in Mexico, he gained strokes putting against the field on that surface. So I just feel like any guy with the track record at this venue, playing in a few different conditions of inside top 20 finishes, and I can get nearly two to one odds on a top 20 finish. Yes, I like that.
Starting point is 01:23:56 Please sign me up for a little Bubba action. All right. So we've got our top 20s. Let's talk about some other fun stuff that you have going here, Harry. You know what? I've looked at the odds and I think I'm definitely going to jump on this one. And that's top Asian. Oh.
Starting point is 01:24:13 I'm going to take one of your buddies, one of your guys that you really have told me that you follow and like. I'm going to take Cure Deck, Affie Barnrat. I'm going to take Curedeck. the Barnrat at 11 to 1 as top Asian. He's too good of a golfer of house to pass on these type of odds. And he's coming off a top five finish at the Byron Nelson. And meanwhile, Hideki Matsuyama is the favorite at plus 225 for top Asian. But you know what?
Starting point is 01:24:39 That's all based on past history of those odds because the truth, he hasn't been playing that well for a while now. This season, Matsuyama is 122nd in driving accuracy. and get this, Messiaama is 165th in putting. Meanwhile, the barn rat
Starting point is 01:24:57 is third. Third on tour in putting. I'm going to take him at 11 to 1 for top Asian and I'll try it. You know,
Starting point is 01:25:06 that is unbelievable value when you got about, I want to say, you've got about eight guys you're looking at. One, two, three, four,
Starting point is 01:25:14 five, six, seven, eight, ten guys you're looking at, but also, you know, you can basically
Starting point is 01:25:19 throw out Y Yang, you, uh, you know, and then jazz, Genoa, what time done?
Starting point is 01:25:25 I mean, those guys are, you know, I know why Yang's won it before, but he hasn't done anything since he won it. So I think, you know, he got a couple of guys CT Pan.
Starting point is 01:25:35 It's a good golf where you won this year. Tang won last week, impressive fashion as he was, he was hung on on Sunday, but still, I think at 11 to 1, that is some odds for Kyrida. I agree.
Starting point is 01:25:49 When you're only talking about 10 golfers, getting odds that are nearly this identical. They're better odds than what Tiger Woods and Brooks Kevka are getting to beat the entire 156 player field. I'm right there with you on the barn rat. I love that. And I mean, you know, I mean, Matsuyama has not been significant for quite some time now.
Starting point is 01:26:12 Really hasn't. Everybody keeps waiting for him to come back. He's allegedly healthy. He just can't put at all. I can't put to save his life. and you know, this is not, maybe he'll surprise us, but I don't think this is the venue
Starting point is 01:26:27 where it all comes together for him. Right. I just think at 11-1, you can't pass that up. So you propose something that I like quite a bit. And you said, let's do a speed round prop bet contest. And I'm all in on this. I mean, I just, you blew my mind with this. and I'm ready to go with you.
Starting point is 01:26:52 Should we alternate our picks so that we, are we going to end up with the same picks on this? How are we going to do it? You know what? I was thinking, like, if I rip the, I got 10 props here. If I rip them off you, next time,
Starting point is 01:27:05 whenever we hook up, if we're going to meet up in, in L.A. in a couple weeks. We'll have a, whatever, a couple beers, a couple cocktails for the, you know, for the,
Starting point is 01:27:15 the winner of this. And I'm going to base it on your pick. So if you have, you have more winners and losers I'm buying. If you have more losers than winners, you're buying. How's that sound? Yeah, well, I want to make sure one thing. I'm very much
Starting point is 01:27:28 agreeable to the cocktails, but we also got to eat and I just want to make sure you're eating cheeseburgers, right? You're not on the Brooks Kebka diet. You know what? I should be, but no, I'm not. I need to be, but I'm not. Well, he's off that diet now too. Right, so I'll rip through these and we'll have some fun with us. It sounds good?
Starting point is 01:27:48 I love it. Hit me. Okay, here we go. I got 10 props here. Here we go. Number one. Yes or no? At some point during the tournament, will there be a hole in one?
Starting point is 01:28:00 I say no. What do you say? I'm going to say no as well. I'm going to say no as well. All the par threes are going to play over 200 yards. They're going to be impossible, I think. It's going to be tough. Right.
Starting point is 01:28:14 Number two, will there be a playoff? Wow. So this one I like quite a bit. And in fact, what's the prop? Let me see what the odds are on this. Because this might be a prop that I can sort of get myself in touch with. Will there be a playoff is plus 300 for yes? It's not very good odds.
Starting point is 01:28:35 Right. I'd like it better if it was closer to like five to one than I would play it. But I honestly think that there is going to be a playoff at Beth Page Black. I just think the quality of the field and the great. equalizer of this venue and these conditions. I just really, and I'm rooting for it, to be honest with you. I'm psyched for it. House is a yes for a playoff. All right. You know what? I got to jump on with you. I'll take yes too just because I'm going to be there. Why wouldn't I want to see it? I'm going to be there. Right. How about that? The degenerate trifecta.
Starting point is 01:29:09 Yeah, Saturday and Sunday. Oh, come. I didn't do anything. The degenerate trifective against all odds on the grounds at Beth Page Black Saturday and Sunday when all the stuff is shaking out and shaking down. Now, I asked, because for a prop on what one of you guys might yell, you know, after the, after the drive. You know, what's the first thing somebody's going to yell? And we didn't, we didn't come up with a good answer. I told him I was going to ask if you would, somebody would yell Fairway Rowland. You know what? I'm out of the three of us, to be honest.
Starting point is 01:29:44 I'm the only one who has guts to do that. Those two don't have the guts to do that. Well, they're Long Islanders. They live there. They got to be cool. They got to be mellow. I don't. I don't have to be anything.
Starting point is 01:29:54 I could get in some trouble, you know, as far as I'm concerned. I don't care. Yeah, I can be me. I'll be wearing, I could be wearing. I'm looking, by the way, I'm booking for orange pants. I want to go Ricky Fowlerish. Can't find any. But I'm looking for, I should have probably taken care of this ahead of time.
Starting point is 01:30:10 I wanted to go a little orange on orange. We'll see. We'll see. They might have that at the, uh, getting the merchandise tent. They love Ricky. I mean, you know, you'll be able to pull something together. If all else fails, just go to the merch tent at the PGA. You'll find something good there.
Starting point is 01:30:26 All right, let's keep going. They got waste 44s there. I've got to make sure they're 44th, man. Number three, let's say here. We got a, will the winner be in the final group in the final round? So since I'm expecting there to be a playoff, I think the right thing to say to this one is yes. I think the winner will be in the final group of the final round. Yeah, you know, I'm going to, just to change things up, I'll go with a no on that one, just for the heck of it.
Starting point is 01:30:54 I don't know. Okay. Number four, what country will the winner be from? So this is a prop that I like. Let me see what the prices of this right now. The nationality of the winner, USA right now, is minus 140, and the field is plus 110. I like the United States for the nationality of the winner at minus 140. I'm going to play that prop.
Starting point is 01:31:19 because of what we get out of that. All of the mega wattage. You get DJ, you get Tiger, you get Brooks, you get my man, Zander. I mean, there is a lot. You get Ricky, a lot of quality. If you go with the United States, that's going to be my pick for nationality of the winter. A lot of good there, too. I know I went with a, I gave out Fowler, I gave out Kepta, and I gave out Rory.
Starting point is 01:31:45 I got a side with the U.S. too. I mean, you have to. It's too many good golfers, too many. Now, for numbers. We're in a lot of agreement. I know, I know. We've got to pay. I'm going to go against you in both these. I'll go against you next two because we'll switch it up here.
Starting point is 01:32:02 And now, who finishes better, Rose or Ron? Well, I'm, I'm feeling such ill will towards Justin Rose after his no-show at the the Masters and he and and he really boyced. Oh, he cooked me. You know, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, he's he, he, he just burned it to, to ashes. I took that, that ticket and put it right in the toilet. Uh, I'm going with John Rom. John Rom. Ron, I got very close to, uh, giving out as, as one of my picks. I mean, he's, he's, he's, he's starting to string
Starting point is 01:32:38 together some nice performances in the majors. The top 10 at the, uh, masters. He fits the off the T metric pretty well. He's got all that long game. And, you know, temperament-wise, there isn't really anything you can point to since the players. You know, he's still finding his way. And he's available at 20 to 1 to win. I'm taking John Rom over Justin Rose.
Starting point is 01:33:03 Okay. And I'm going to take Rose just to go against you, just so we got a couple of disagreements here. Number six, number six, same thing. Who finishes better? Tony C now, poor Tommy. Fleetwood. Well, you know that I gave out Fleetwood as a potential. I know he gave out Fleetwood. So I'm sticking with my man, uh, Fleetwood. Okay. And I got to, uh, I'll go the other way.
Starting point is 01:33:26 Just to have a little action. I'll take Feeneau on that. I know now. We're up to number seven. There's nothing that's bad to say about Tony. If you, you know, another guy that's around the hoop, uh, every major now, it seems. And, uh, his master's performance was pretty great. Um, the fact that he wasn't able to hang in there against the Tiger Mystique on Sunday. It really is no knock. He still finished top five. But, you know, I, I think Tommy Fleetwood's got the background to win this giant tournament. So that's why I'm sticking with Fleetwood.
Starting point is 01:33:58 All right. Number seven here. Okay. We got top Canadian boy, Corey Connors. So it hurts me to go against my boy, Hattie. He was on the Shackhouse podcast a couple years. ago, a terrific Canadian, and also a guy with some PGA tour wins. But Cory Connors has a more recent win.
Starting point is 01:34:24 And Cory Connors, threw three rounds at the Masters was poised to help me collect on my nearly 9 to 1 odds ticket for a top 20 finish. He couldn't pull it off. He shot something up very close to 80 on Sunday. But I'm going to go with Cory Connors here. Okay, I'll take Adam Hadwin I'll take Hadwin he's solid A lot of times
Starting point is 01:34:49 He is solid I love Haddy You won't get me to say a bad thing about him All right We've got a couple left here What are we doing Two left Will later after the
Starting point is 01:34:58 After Friday's round Be European Wow So this is a good This is an interesting one Through 36 holes And it seems like Drawwise
Starting point is 01:35:11 And we should look at Some of these names It seems like the guys that are playing in the morning on Thursday and the afternoon on Friday have at this moment weather-wise the better side of the draw because it looks like there's rain in the forecast for Friday morning. And I haven't had a chance to update to see minute by minute how that's changing. What is a possibility in the forecast that I saw a bit ago for some like serious kind of rain coming down for different portions of Friday. So we need to look at the at the draw to really fine-tune this. But I think after Friday's round, will a leader be European? You know a name that I like for this coming out of the box that you kind of had him circled here.
Starting point is 01:36:01 I like Frankie Malinari as a potential 36-hole leader, a guy that's going to be super steady. He's definitely playing. He's got that morning-afternoon combo draw. and, you know, he's playing with Brooks and Tiger, and you know who's not going to be affected at all by playing with two giant superstar titans of the game that are going to be hitting the ball 100 yards past them? That's Frankie Onions.
Starting point is 01:36:25 Frankie Onions does not give a F, Harry. He'll be right there with him. Will the leader after Friday's round be European? Not only am I saying yes, I'm giving the name. It's Frankie Onions and 36 whole leader. How about that? You know what? I'm nice.
Starting point is 01:36:39 I like yes, too. And, you know, I guess, you know, someone who hasn't been talked about lately, but sometimes he really shows up and he's at a good beginning part of the season, not so much lately. But look for Paul Casey to maybe show something, you know, of late and maybe on this tournament, because he hasn't been playing so spectacular lately, but look out for Paul Casey leading after Friday's round. Now, number 10, number 10.
Starting point is 01:37:09 Here's a little fun with this one, buddy. there's another one. Will either one of these past champions? Will any one of these past champions make the cut? We've got B.J. Singh, Sean McKeel, Y. E. Yang, or John Daly and his cart, which is some story, too, huh? I love it. Like, look.
Starting point is 01:37:34 So any of those guys make the cut? I want to talk about Daly's cart for just one second. This is a classic example of the PGA of America, understanding their constituency. You've got to give the people what they want. The people of New York want to see John Daly. If it means him on a cart that adds to the spectacle, the whole point of this is a showcase for the PGA of America, of all its talent and the former champions. and if one of those former champions needs this
Starting point is 01:38:07 the cart to be able to get around it is a tough walk I've been lucky enough to play Bethpage Black carry and let me tell you it is a long walk if you've got leg trouble this is not the golf course for you I don't not with even with the cart though
Starting point is 01:38:24 this golf course is a monster it's a beast the only one of these guys that has a chance is Vijay and Vijay does still I think he's 54, 55. Now, he pounds the daylights out of the ball. I'm going to say no, though. I'm
Starting point is 01:38:40 going to disrespect the elders in this. Even though I'm officially an elder, I'm going to disrespect them and say none of them are going to make the cut. Yeah, I'm going to go with no, too. It's going to be, like you said, VJ's the only one. I've been right next to VJ when I've seen the tournament Vegas. He's
Starting point is 01:38:56 a huge guy. He's a big guy, but I, but, you know, he's had a couple moments of the past year where he's been, you know, a little flashes at top of the leaderboard here and there at the PGA more than actually he plays better than the PGA than he does the seniors than he does the champions tour a lot of times but I'm going to still say no as well it's going to be tough yeah all right well we we have there's our 10 we'll go through this uh and we'll be paying close attention as the tournament
Starting point is 01:39:23 develops here we're really only different on uh five of these well so half of them so we're there is going to be a winner there's going to be a loser um because we have an odd number here that's nice. Even I can figure out that math, Harry. Watch Justin Rola Scree again. That'll be the difference. That would be so on the money. Well, speaking of On the Money, you can check out Harry's picks. He's going to lay out his beautiful winner's menu late Wednesday.
Starting point is 01:39:53 So you can, you know, if you can hold out there and be patient, Harry at AAO Harry. And I'm at House from D.C. I also will be doing my best to put out a menu of winners. Harry, as always, my brother, thank you, and let's produce a little ROI. Hey, thanks, House. I'm looking forward to this weekend. It's going to be a blast. I'm leaving Friday.
Starting point is 01:40:16 I'll be there. Like I said, Saturday and Sunday, thanks for everything. We'll see how things are. We'll see how these picks go, but you know, what's that fun. This is what's all about. We're going to have fun. We'll be looking for you in some orange pants out there on television at Beth Page. Sounds great, buddy. Thanks.
Starting point is 01:40:32 Thanks, buddy. All right, there you go, my par saving pals. That's the best we can do. Lots and lots of considerations, angles, and thoughts. We want everybody to get a strong return on investment this week. Let's all have great ROI. We will be back right after the tournament ends Sunday evening. We're going to sit down and do a quick recap of the new champion for the PGA championship.
Starting point is 01:40:59 It could be an old champion. It could be the same champion. It could be Brooks Keppka again. Who knows. But let's get back together. Sunday evening, Fairway, rolling. We'll get this thing up with a retake on all that has occurred over the previous four days. We'll be talking about the new champion.
Starting point is 01:41:15 Check it out Sunday night right after the tournament ends. Until then, my birdie buddies, let's hit them straight out there.

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