Fairway Rollin' - Presidents Cup Deep Dive With Justin Ray!

Episode Date: September 25, 2024

The Presidents Cup is here, and House and Hubbard are joined by none other than Twenty First Group’s Justin Ray to preview the tournament! They discuss the best strategies for both the international and U.S. teams (05:20), how the first-timers will fare on both teams (18:23), and whether the U.S. has a considerable edge (23:52). Then they highlight the players they’re bullish on for the tournament (33:27). The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Hosts: Joe House and Nathan Hubbard Guest: Justin Ray Producer: Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, y'all. Sirot Sohey from The Ringer here, and I wanted to let you guys know about a new show that I'm hosting. The Ringer WNBA show. We're going to be talking about all the biggest personalities, breaking down and analyzing the latest happenings that make the W so fascinating, featuring some of the best guests and experts from around the league. Tap in with us on the brand new Ringer WNBA show feed on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Hello, friends, and welcome to this golf podcast.

unlike any other. Oh yes, my friends. We are back. This is Fairway rolling. A golf podcast on the Ringer podcast. Network. I am your starter. Joe House.

My birdie buddies, my eagle enthusiast, my par-saving pals. We have great things happening in the world of golf. It is international golf competition amongst the men, a team from the United States. states a team from five different countries and four different continents, expanding the world other than Europe. We have to do it big, my friends. Our incomparable accomplice, our PGA tour boots on the ground, Nathan Hubbard, of course.

But if we're going big, we got to bring in the big homie. Justin Ray, you know him from his work at the athletic. You know him as the head of content at 21st group. and you may know him from his starring role most recently in helping the United States team to a rousing victory right here in the DMB in the Solheim Cup it is a three ball my friends

off we go Jay Ray are you have you sobered up we saw you on the Twitter machine drinking big swallers from that big cup yeah It took a while, but yeah, no, I'm good and recovered.

I was greeted by reality when I got home with a sick wife and toddler. So reality hits you pretty hard. But yeah, it was an amazing week. I'm so happy for Stacey and the entire team. Just, you know, I didn't hit a shot. Can't win a Solon Cup or a team competition with a spreadsheet. It's a great honor to be just a small part of it. But it was an amazing experience.

It's the most fun I've ever had in my career. Well, you got a lot of accolades for doing that from Stacey. and she certainly considered you part of the team. Are you going to keep doing this, buddy? Is there any chance you're going to be a regular fixture here in international competition? I hope so. I mean, last year in Spain, we got so agonizingly close.

I mean, to tie was almost more painful than losing it, especially when Team Europe at the celebration after it was playing, We Are the Champions. I'm like, you retained, you died. I was mad over that little technicality. But no, and then to be part of this was just amazing. I really hope I'm able to continue to do it. I know there's a desire from both sides to get it done.

So hopefully we're able to come to an agreement. And I would love to be part of it because the team's amazing. The women are amazing. The competition is only going to get bigger and better. And last week was, I thought, aside from Friday morning with some buses was a massive success across the board. Yeah, we're not talking about them buses anymore. No, please don't. It's just stars and stripes.

So I hope you don't mind. You've always been generous and gracious with us here at Fairway, Roland, but Nate and I have a little something up our sleeve here by inviting you in. And we love that you are so fresh off of just having supported a team that was looking for a victory, right? The Solheim Cup, the U.S. had not won the Solheim Cup. It had been seven years previous up until a couple weeks ago. and what we are really interested in is, you know, sizing up. Now, look, the President's Cup has only been around since 1994.

It is the PGA Tours, you know, version of the Ryder Cup. It does have some distinctions. They play it over four days. And, you know, the U.S. is dominated. It's 12-1-1. The U.S. is won nine straight. we are on foreign soil. That's the way they say it.

I'm acquired by law to say it that way. Up in Montreal, Canada, which is great for folks interested in enthusiastic crowds getting behind the international boys. We know that Canada is going to show up and show out right there in Montreal. But Jay Ray,

how would you go about kind of tackling the sizable task of matching up across the board. Some of these boys on the international side, we'll get to the U.S. side soon enough, but to get them in a competitive kind of position here. Yeah, so the major issue for the international side has been the alternate shot format. If you go back to 2007, they're actually plus one in terms of point differential in singles. they're just minus one in the four ball.

The last two president's cups on foreign soil and four ball, they're actually outscored the U.S. by six. Alternate shot has been, they've hemorrhage points. They have a minus 33 point differential since 2007 in that format. It's ridiculous how bad the U.S.

has beat them there. So I think that's because you can't hide anybody, you can't hide any golf shots, you can't take the better player's shots over and over again, and that's where the depth really gets exposed. But the good,

news for them this week is royal montreal is a foursum's dream in terms of setting up the golf course in the way you want to do it uh each of the four par threes are on odd numbered holes which doesn't happen as often as you might think um and then players teeing off on the even holes so because of that the par three is they're going to hit about four to five more drives than their partner um you can really split that up and then when you look at the balance of the golf course um the par fives are both odd holds. So that contributes to the driving thing as well. Then you take a look at there's a stretch from holes four through eight where the guy teeing off on the even holes

could have birdie putts or eagle putts at four, five, six, seven, and eight. And ultimately, getting off to a lead in one of these matches is how you win. I mean, you know, I think it's like only 36% in President's Cup matches the last three or four of additions have even gotten to the 18th. Historically, most matches in around 16, 17, you've got to, got to get that lead early. And so that really emphasizes you're able to put the more accurate

or guy you can rely on off the tee as your even-numbered alternate shot guy. But you're definitely leaning on the better putter there. And when it comes to the odds, they might have players of tee off on the odd holes, might have as many as eight more approach shots into greens than the evens. These are really staggering numbers because if you look back at RTJ, there was a pretty big, a pretty big gap in terms of teeing off an odd and even getting an advantage. But really it was like maybe two shots, three shots here or there. We're talking about possibility of an eight shot swing depending on that setup. So you've got some players with some really good skill sets in terms of statistics this year on the international team that you can set up for some success

in the alternate shot format. Just putting together a couple of examples, one pairing that I would like that seems a little unconventional, but analytically fits on this golf course, is Corey Connors and Jason Day. If you look at Corey Conner, he's the best approach player that the international side has. Do you have him hitting maybe 11, 12 approach shots? That's definitely something you want to do if you're the international team. On the other side, Jason Day, top 10 in strokes game funding this season, still powerful off the T, well above average in terms of strokes gained off the T. You can really, you can kind of isolate those skill sets in a lot of ways here. It's not perfect. You're not going to always eliminate all the variables. but this is a golf course where alignment and the alternate shot is going to be really valuable. It's very important to get the right player teeing off on odd and even based on skill set.

I think you can break apart elements of your roster to maximize the potential in that format. See, that's the kind of insight we look for here, House. This is why we asked Jay Ray to come do this for us. I'm curious, it sounds like Mike Weir has asked them to grow up the rough and that they've sort of intentionally pinched in and put it up four inches. And that's sometimes the anti-bomber tactic. You talked a little bit about some of the good putters. You talked about guys like Corey Connors, who's been flushing his approach shots. How do you evaluate that as a strategy? Is there anything statistically that would make you think why Mike Weir has chosen that tactic to make it just a little

bit harder off the T this week? If I'm Mike Weir, the international captain, the number one thing I want to void is getting into a competition where everyone's hitting approach shots from like 150 to 200 yards out of the fairway. Because the Americans will beat them to death if that's the case. Statistically, they have nine of the 12 best players playing this week in Strokes Kane approach.

They have an advantage across the board and all those different proximity to the whole categories this season when you look at the roster as a whole. You add the rough and you make it more important to hit it in the fairway. There's not a massive difference in terms of accuracy off the tee between the two teams. But what you do do is you introduce more

variables and more chaos. It's less predictable and you can get maybe a few more errant shots if you get some really bad lies in the rough. So I think what that does is it just, it lessens a little bit the ability for the players to just, you know, if this is just guys going at pins from 125, 150, 175, 180, the Americans are going to win by six points. It's not going to be close. But if you're able to introduce a little bit of variance and then you get to a point where the international team in terms of average strokes game putting rank this season on the PGA tour it's pretty close to the United States team

and they actually have five of the eight best putters this week. You can get a little bit, if you throw them out there a little bit and you make it into a little bit of a putting contest, that's probably where you have your best chance because in foursums, you're not able to hide anybody. Four ball, you can kind of find the balance there,

and then singles is oftentimes has been a toss-up for a lot of these President's Cups. That's what I would do, And I think that's the thinking reasoning behind growing the rough a little bit. And look, it worked for Europe in 2018 at the Golf National for sure. Yeah, Jim Fierich doesn't want to see high rough after what happened at La Golf National now. Let's talk a little bit about the U.S. team. And there are some curiosities once you sort of crack into the numbers a little bit here

and look at some of the form the guys are arriving with, you know, the most criticized. there wasn't giant criticism, but the most criticized picks on the U.S. side were Max Homa and Brian Harmon. Max Homa hasn't finished inside the top 20 since May. Brian Harmon hasn't finished in the top 20 in any event he's played in since June. But those two did have a successful run together at the Ryder Cup. And Max Homa especially has shown himself in these competitions. He's the only player presently on earth with an undefeated record in these kind of competitions. This is really where he came out to be the man, wasn't it? I mean, this was the tournament where we turned him into kind of Captain America. I mean, he went four and oh in the

President's Cup at Quill Hollow and followed that up with a three one and one at the Ryder Cup and was one of our few bright shining lights. And then we have some of these natural pairings that we've seen, you know, obviously Patrick Cantley and Andrew Schofley, extremely comfortable playing together. Scotty Sheffler and Sam Burns have a comfort level. No success. They haven't won, but they seem comfortable playing with each other. How do you think Captain Furek is kind of sizing up what to do with his squad?

It's going to be really interesting. I mean, the number one thing I think is if they are willing to break up Schaeffler and Burns, I think it unlocks a lot of different interesting possibilities in both team formats. Look, I don't know if you can tell the number one player in the world, no. But if there is one that you can probably negotiate with in a friendly way, it seems like it would be Scotty Sheffler. I think that would be a little bit more difficult to do with, say, like, Prime David Duval

or Tiger, a little tougher conversation to have. But, you know, look, Scotty is the best approach player on the planet. And if you're able to put him an alternate shot with one of your, this is all too, also So this is about fitting an entire puzzle for the whole week, right? I mean, look, you might want to put out your five best potential pairings over and over and over again, for your five best and your format, whatever the number may be by format. But the truth of the matter is, not everybody is going to want to play every session. There's diminished returns that comes from it.

You know, you've got to take into account what guys' preferences are and how they're feeling and somebody's got a bum back or whatever. It's not all just cut and dry in terms of best format. And I think if you're able to break out of some of those predetermined pairings, right? Like KLA and Shafley, I don't know how you could possibly break it up because it's been so successful. But Scotty and Sam, you have an ability to say, okay, guys, maybe we play you in one four ball session together. But we've got a number say, Scotty and this player are going to be awesome together in the foursomes. And then you're able to let all the pieces kind of move around and work better.

So that's the thing, the first thing for me that's going to be most interesting. You see that first session, really the Friday alternate shot is where it really gets interesting. But when you see the first session release, if they don't have Scotty and Sam together, then I think you're kind of opened up to, okay, the perspective is different. They've kind of modified some things. And I know Scotty didn't play with Sam in the practice rounds on Tuesday. So that's something that's interesting as well. So that's the first element.

And then that unlocks so many different things because all these different possible pairings are always tied to one another. I know they've probably got infinite number of different combinations and stuff that they've gotten their minds to kind of get the ideal points on the board through four sessions because I know that's what we did at RTJ a couple weeks ago. But that's the first thing for me. I think if you're looking at a player like, I don't think you could put Max an alternate shot, but you're perfectly justified in having Max Homa on this team based on what he's done in these team events. I mean, I don't think it's that outlandish of a thing to have him there. but maybe you consider, you know, his iron play really hasn't been very good this year. He's the worst player on the U.S. team

in terms of average proximity to the whole this season. You know, I don't think if you've got a bank on him hitting a bunch of approach shots, we don't want to do that. But if you put him in the four ball format for both sessions and singles, and he goes out there and wins a point and a half, and if he's your weakest link, then you're going to win the president's goal.

Can you give us a little bit of insight into the team room on this? side of things because one of the very interesting dynamics this week is that Furek is kind of just a he's a caretaker this week. Kagan Bradley playing on this team is the guy who's going to be managing the Ryder Cup that a lot of people, you know, let's be honest, they care a little bit more about. Although I think by the end of this week, people are going to care more about the international team and the President's Cup. But can you just talk about the dynamic in the room where you've been a little bit more about what the vice captain's roles are in?

talking to the captain and the extent to which the players have input into some of the decisions that you just talked about, potentially breaking guys up. How's it working behind the scenes? And at what point does data come in? At what point does ego and personality come in? Give us a little bit of insight there. It's a delicate balance of both, Nate. I mean, you've got to have the soft skills to go along with the ability to use the hard data to your benefit. You can't have 100% of one or the other or else, you know, it topples over and you don't get the result you want. But I think the thing that I've noticed, and look, this is just my experience from the last two Solheim Cups, the assistant captains are extremely important in terms of being a vessel of communication to the captain.

The captain is doing way more than you think throughout the week. Like, at least Stacey was. I mean, I couldn't wrap my brain around the number of different things she was concerned about throughout the week. from, you know, the hair and makeup situation at the team house before the gala on Tuesday. Like something like that that you never think about in 10 million years, and obviously Jim's not worried about that. But like there's all these different little logistical things, and then you get to the actual competition.

So the vice captains are really important in terms of the soft skill aspects, like Player X rolled her ankle on the treadmill on Monday, or this caddy was sick last night from food poisoning or just little pieces of information you could put together where you learn, okay, this player looked tired on Friday afternoon in her session. Maybe that didn't show up in some of the hard data, but let's consider sitting her Saturday morning or whatever it might be.

So that's the biggest thing that I took away is they're very important vessels of communication for all those soft skill outside of the number type things that might pop up through. out the week. So I want to talk a little bit about the rookies on each side and see, you know, kind of pick your brain a little bit on how you might, you know, configure some combinations here. One of the things about this event, it's a 30 point event unlike the Solheim Cup and the Ryder Cup. And they have it spread out over four days. So Thursday and

Friday, relatively speaking for these kinds of competitions, they're kind of light days. It's five matches. The guys will be out. They're off. They can get kind of, you know, get into whatever they want to get into in terms of rest and physio and all the rest of it, whatever routine works. For the rookies, obviously they will be, you know, inside this cocoon. They'll have the wizened vets to sort of lead them along the way.

And it is kind of funny that Wyndham Clark and Brian Harmon both count as President's Cup rookies, even though they were just in the Ryder Cup. But on the international side, Min Wu Lee, McKenzie Hughes, what do you think is, you know, the kind of correct strategy when you are looking at some of the folks in the rookie class? Well, I think if you're playing in a format like the Solheim or Ryder Cup where it's two sessions on Friday, I don't want the rookies stewing, getting ready for their first ever match, especially if they're on road, not on home soil that morning. That's a variable you don't want to introduce.

There's a little bit less of that here. Having a full day knowing you're not going to play and knowing it the night before, I think is a little bit different. But you have the opportunity here where looking four ball, the strategy, it's not that it goes out the window, obviously, but it's less intricate than it is for the alternate shot because everybody's hitting golf balls. So if everybody's handing every shot, right? So if you feel like you need to get McKinsey Hughes out there as a rookie,

look, he's 33 years old. He's done almost everything you can in the game. It's not like he's a 22-year-old bright-eyed kid out there. I don't think it's that significant, but I would consider putting him out in the first session just to maybe get whatever butterflies might be there out of their system. But then you talk about like rookies on the U.S. side. Brian Harmon is almost 40 years old.

He's a major winner. Like, he's not a rookie, man. He's not worried. He's not going to be nervous, you know. And the same thing for, who's my other guy? Russell Henley, 35, technically playing in his first team event, I believe, writer or president's cup. No, it's his first President's Cup.

But these are guys who've seen virtually everything in the game. So it's not, I don't think the rookie factor is quite as significant as if, you know, say last year at Solheim Cup when Rose Zhang is 19 years old and playing in her first big team event a few months after she was just an amateur. you're not setting the odds on this event. But, you know, in football, home team generally going to get three points as an advantage. When you're running numbers in advance, how do you think about that home advantage and how it sort of plays? Are you really just, is that more of a qualitative assessment of the mental toughness of guys?

Is there anything statistically you can go look at to think, to think, about how a player's going to do either away or home, right? I mean, I think sort of intuitively, we all feel like you put Keegan in front of a friendly crowd, he does pretty darn well historically. You put Max in that moment, he seems to rise to it. There are some other players that maybe don't. Is there a way that you can sort of analytically harness what home field, home course advantage means? I think it kind of depends on how much say the captains and the setup true have in terms of how the course is set up for the week. I know that at the Solon Cup,

we had really not a lot of input in terms of what to do to the rough and the modifications on the golf course. We scouted out and knew what the golf course was going to be, obviously, but there wasn't a lot of... What is that? I'm not sure.

Maybe just what they've done in the past. Maybe it'll change as the event grows and gets bigger. Ryder Cuts been around a lot longer than these other two events. So maybe that has something to do with it. But look, I know that in 2018, they were the statistics and analytics were intricate and integral in how they set up the golf course and it weighed heavily towards the European side.

I know that at Royal Melbourne was it five years ago now. I can't believe that's been five years, but they were pretty significant voices in the room of whatever you could do to a sandbelt course like that. But yeah, I think it depends on, look, there is that. I talked about the soft skills of the vice cabins. That's not something you could really analyze great in a great way. I mean, you can circle some of the most clutch players in golf over the last generation

and a half, and Tiger Woods wasn't particularly a great player in the Ryder Cup, you know? And then you look at players like Luke Donald, who famously got to World Number One, he did everything but went a major championship in his career. He's incredible in the Ryder Cup. So it's a tough thing to quantify in terms of entering an event, but I do think that if the captain has more say in terms of force setup, that can tell me more about how a player's skill set and what they're strong at, how they're going to fit on the golf course.

So I want to kind of jump into it. I have been warning Nate Dogg that, and I warned you when we invited you onto the show. I mean, you've been declaring, not even a warning. You've been declaring, you've been stating your full intention for months now. You are sure, you know that for the first time, in history, say it. I'm not certain of anything, and I'm not sure of anything,

but I will say that I think the odds, as they're currently set, reflect a reality that I'm not so sure will be present this week. So right now on the Fandual Sportsbook, the U.S. team is a minus 230, which is an impride probability of a little north of 70%,

and the international squad is plus 250, which is implied probability of a little under 30% and all I'm saying is at those prices I'm not confident that you're getting any value on the U.S.

side. And our pal Jason Sobel in his work going through and mapping out how he might prepare his wagers for the week, made a nice observation about the strategy of

Captain Weir and the international team of using the foursums. I mean, I'm sorry, the four ball as the kickoff to the thing to build some momentum to let their guys go out and get comfortable. Just to your observation, Nate, dog, catch some of that adrenaline of that Canadian crowd. I bet we see, you know, possibly all three of the Canadians in these five, five matches right out of the gate, exactly right? And if they come out with a lead, then you might start to get a little bit of value on the side because those odds will change a little bit. But I also am wondering out loud, and I'm interested in Jay Ray's response to this,

there is a kind of fatigue. We saw it last year at the Ryder Cup. I hate to really say it out loud. But the U.S. side, when we got around to Rider Cup time in Rome, was kind of sick of playing golf. I mean, we kind of watched over the course of that, that, you know, all of those matches in Rome, there was. reports, you know, they had a, they, they weren't out there on that golf course grinding together.

They all came back together after the end of the tour championship, you know, kind of like right before the start of the tournament. And Max and Wyndham sure looked like they were tired of playing golf in Napa. When they missed the cut? Is that what you're talking about? That's what I'm talking about. And you've got international guys right now. We're all wearing the Adam Scott, you know, camel color uniforms having a good. time. I mean, Imelman created some culture around this thing for these guys that I think, House, I think you're right. It might matter. I'll tell you, I was in a meeting in 2019 at the players championship. It was when it was the talk of getting the statistics integrated with the

international team. Very first time it was introduced. But the more important part of that conversation was the overarching theme that Ernie else had with the entire. international side about we need to make this into something. It was basically, it was when they were working on the crests, the colors of the flag. And look, that seems superficial. But look, it's, it's something you can ban behind because, you know, for forever, the international side, it was just a hodgepodge of guys from all over the planet. But if you've got this thing together, and look, they've been much more organized, not just from an analytical perspective, but in terms of creating that culture. And Ernie started it and they should have wanted

2019. And then, you know, I would say the roster was just so brutally outmatched to Quail Hollow that they actually performed pretty well, all things considered. It was a more, it was a more interesting, think about before Quail Hollow, what happened to Liberty National, where the United States almost won on Saturday that literally almost happened. That was a huge turnaround. That was like a four or five point differential in terms of what the international side did. That culture is a huge part of it. I really think there's something to be said there for that and that really taking hold over the last couple of presidents' cups. Well, and to that point, I mean, you're talking about, we're going to hear it all week long, playing for the shield. We're playing for the shield.

The interesting thing is that we have eight returning players from the international side, from that Quill Hollow experience, and there's a predominance of players from just a handful of countries. Most of the players are either from South Korea or Canada. Who am I living out? South Africa. No, Australia, Australia, right? So we have a preponderance of these guys who, you know, the disadvantage that you described J. Ray previously in terms of this mismash of players coming from all over the world in previous iterations of the Cup. That's not quite the case here.

These are guys who've been playing together with each other, against each other, in their own ways for a number of years. So that also, to me, that notion of cohesion kind of plays a, a role here too. Do you agree with that? What I will say, we haven't mentioned the colossal elephant in the room there in the corner, which is since 2019,

a lot of key members of that team are no longer on the PGA tour. That is right. They have a massive talent drain. The Americans had one too, but I'll get to a point later where I think on this golf course, the structure of this roster is actually better with some of the American live guys not on it.

But I'll get to that in a minute. But think about the players they lost. It's the heart of their team. It's Joaquin Neiman, Cam Smith, Brandon Grace went 5-0 and O in South Korea in 2015. People forget about that. Louis Ooste-Hazen, like, I know he's getting up in years in his career, but in terms of like Neiman and Cam,

like that's their future of your team. So the fact that they were able to put what they did together at Coil-Hawah was even more impressive in terms of that. But now you've got that collection of guys led by your Tom Kim, Now you've got Min Wu Lee in the fold. Corey Connors gets another shot at it out of after a really rough first experience. There's some consistency building there with a little bit of the older guard in terms of Adam Scott, Jason Day, and Hadeke. Well, House talked about the opportunity, potentially the live bet, or at least in the middle of the tournament, depending on how things go.

From your perspective, having been on the data and analytics side, are you just watching how people perform from a, data perspective, are there specific metrics that you're looking at outside of the sort of traditional shots gained that give you sort of a leading indication of whether you're going to advocate to Stacey as you were, you know, to put a certain person out there or keep them off? Is there anything behind the scenes statistically that you're going to be looking at to inform somebody who might be trying to decide where to lay down their cash? I'm going to try to answer that without giving away any secret sauce that is particularly valuable. But I would say if you're looking to bet this event, just picking a winner or

trying to get odds there, this thing doesn't start till Friday afternoon when they go into alternate shot. If the international side is within two after that second session, like, if they're just able to split alternate shot for the week, they're probably going to win. They've been so bad at alternate shot that if you're looking at something Friday afternoon, let's say, let's say it's because it's five sessions, five sessions, the first two. Let's say it's six, four, and they either split or were close in the alternate shot format, look out. They go to bed and believe in they're going to win, I think.

Yeah. Yeah. You look, I mean, but if they go out and the Americans, the same all, they win the first foursome session four to one, okay, we're probably in for the same kind of result. But the way that they've played in foursomes over the years, foursomes, if you just think about the formats, foursomes, only one player on your two. team has to beat one player on the other team. In alternate shot, two players have to beat two players. So the deeper team is always going to benefit from the alternate shot format, and that's

directly reflected in the history of this event. So if you just think about it, like, obviously the Americans are much, much deeper in terms of world rank and things you can expect. Doesn't mean the other teams aren't also incredibly talented. It's just the fact of the matter in terms of depth and caliber of player throughout 1 through 12. You get to that foursome session, and they, there's a crack in the armor and we think maybe, you know, wow, they're playing pretty well in the alternate shot. Then you've really got something. It's going to be really interesting.

So that's probably the biggest thing that I'm looking for once this thing starts. House, are you betting the internationals? We'll get there in time. But there's a lot of derivative ways you can take advantage of some of the themes that J. Ray is touching on. So I'm looking at the top players market, for instance, speaking of depth. and the top five guys by odds are all U.S. it's Scotty at 7 to 1, Zander 8 plus 850,

Colin at 10 to 1, Patrick Cantlay 11 to 1 and Sandbirds at 12 to 1, before you get to Adam Scott and Sungjay and Tom Kim, all of whom are at 14 to 1. And the one that's particularly interesting to me is Sungay, who in two previous President's Cup appearances, a 5-3 and 2 record. But Sanjay's had quietly a really consistent season. And he's had, you know, a whole slew of,

we haven't seen him in the top three of leaderboards, but we've seen them in the top 15 of leaderboards. And I think that, like, you sort of stretch out his strokes gain performance over the course of the year. And what you see is a guy who's showing. going up very confident, um, off the tea and very confident,

um, putting wise. So I'm kind of in that market right now, Jay Ray. Do you want to talk me out of it that the, talk me out of some some J. E.M. futures here. No,

let's, let's talk again about the golf course. We don't have a ton of past data to lean on. They haven't gone to Royal Montreal for a bunch of events. But if you just look at, let's just look at the last two winners at Royal Montreal. 2014 Tim Clark that year, 174th on the PGA tour and driving distance.

2001, Scott Verplank, 170th on the PGA tour and driving distance. If I look at in 2014, the players were finished in the top 10 that week at Royal Montreal. They only got 12% of their strokes gained for the week off the tee. 44% came on approach. This is not a golf course where it's power prejudice. There's only two par fives.

I talked about the par threes on all the odd holes. I think this is a golf course where you can find value and guys don't necessarily, you know, hit the shit out of it off the tee and are better approach players. look, that's what you're describing with Sung J.M. Like, he's plenty long, not the longest guy in the world, but his strength is, you know, usually is approach play.

But I think that if you, just looking at the two rosters between the teams, Corey Connors was abysmal at the last President's Cup, right? He went 0-4-0, but he's fourth on the PGA Tour and Strokes-gained approach. If he's put in the right position in terms of they're going to put him out, in alternate shot, teeing off in the right sequence, and he sits one of the foursums, let's say he gets three and a half, four points. So it's his number for the week.

I mean, I could totally see that happening. This is a golf course that's going to emphasize approach playability. It's not going to be overly relying on driving the golf ball super far. And that's the point I made about some of the American players who left for live. If you think about some of the guys that departed, Bryson DeChambo, driver, Dustin Johnson, driver, Brooks Kepka, you think driver. He's good at a lot of different things, but he's a power pole. player. Then look at the consistency of the roster now. Ryan Harmon's probably not on the team if one of those guys is on the tour.

Harmon is arguably a better fit for this golf course than Rice and DeShambo is or Dustin Johnson would be. So I honestly think that just because of the nature of the golf course, in some ways, it's actually beneficial to the American roster this week. Just because of the makeup just looks different. Nothing against those guys as players. It's just that the way the golf course sets up, it doesn't tend to favor power as much as week in and week out on the PJ.

tour. So Max Homa comes in, he's been more than a shot worse per round over the last three months than anybody else over the same window. If you are Furek, are you trying to hide him? And are there any guys who either from a course fit standpoint or a lead-up form that you're actually trying to hide in terms of your pairings? I mean, hide is one way to phrase. it, but I think that you're always just trying to put, this is coach speak cliche, so apology,

but you're always just trying to put players in the best position to win, right? And so I'll take, for example, a player who had really poor putting statistics all season that we didn't want to necessarily put an alternate shot at the Solheim Cup, Megan Kang. We put her in the position to win. She went 3-0 and 0, and she didn't see the 15th hole. I mean, so I think that you can put players in a spot where if you don't have max an alternate shot, you're not making you. him hit, you know, he's got to hit more shots, obviously, in the four ball, but you're not making the team take, you know, a bad iron shot, a miss here, a miss there. You can put him in a position where his best shots are being used. So, I mean, that's kind of the way I would view it.

So hiding him, maybe not. But I would, I could put him out for, depending on how the puzzle all works out, for two four ball sessions. And then, you know, depending on if you really think you have hiding him, air quotes, take a look at the score situation. When you, you you go into singles and put them either at the front or the very back, depending on what the situation is. If you're tied going into singles, I'm going to put them probably closer to the back because you want to get some momentum on the board.

If you're way ahead, then go ahead and roll them out there first or second and see what happens. I mean, it's a way that you can just kind of maximize what you can get out of a player simply from an analytical perspective. I want to acknowledge, now that we're almost 40 minutes in, that I'm not that psych to bet anything on Scotty Sheffler, and I recognize doing so at my own peril, what kind of folly that is.

You know, we kept looking at his prices all season long on the PGA tour and saying we can't bet on Scotty Sheffler at these prices, and then by golly, he goes out and wins, and that's, you know, you just have to sort of roll with it.

Let me hear your instinct on, Scotty. I will say also, for me personally, I think that man, after he won the Tour Championship, wanted to go home and be with his wife and his baby and watch some college football. That's what I think. And he talked about immediately, he's his press conference today. He's so sharp. He's like, man, I went right back to work. We had some things. We were working. I think that man was watching college football with that baby boy sitting right in his lap

and just enjoying his life and trying to recharge a little bit, Jay Ray. I will point out that the Longhorns play merely Mississippi. state this weekend. So if it was Georgia week, maybe a different level of focus for our guy, Scotty. I will say, look, some of your instincts I totally get, right? I mean, he hasn't want to match in either the last Ryder Cup or the last President's Cup. But he's the best approach player in the world. And I just told you about all those different metrics about how this is a, this is a second shot golf course. This is a second shot golf course. And look, he does everything well at this point, but he's the best in the world from 150 to 175 yards.

If you look at the top two players in 2014 at this golf course, Tim Clark won. He was six feet better than average on those shots. Jim Furek was second. He was four feet better than average on those shots. So it just speaks to the significance of it. And I tend to lean a little more into, yeah, maybe he's at 80% in terms of focus, maybe not 100% there. but yeah, the numbers tell me that he's going to have a good week

and he's going to bounce back because he's too good to go winless again, you know, at a team event. I just don't see it happening. Yeah, I was, what I wanted to do was buy into some Kalamorakawa, but the numbers are not really that great. Like, it's Scotty at plus, I'm looking at top USA point score, Scotty at plus 430, Zander and Patrick at 6 to 1. You're only getting plus 650 on Colin.

I wanted him to be a little bit further down the board because I do think that based on everything you've described and what the research seems to suggest, he could be a damn good fit for this place. And he is a guy that needs to put his stamp on this year because he got so close so many times. You know, he was in the top five. We watched him walk with the leader at two different majors this year. And, you know, nothing really to show for it. you know, plenty of money and plenty of, you know,

notoriety for the, for the high finishes, but a great performance here would be a capper for this year. So I kind of wanted to get into Morikawa a little bit. What do you think? Yeah, I think it sounds like the Ozmakers got some course fit information

and saw that either that or they just remember seeing him on Sunday over and over again all those big events like you mentioned. I had Conlin circled as a guy I thought would be good value. And then I heard your number. And I was like, uh, maybe not so much. Because he is a good,

he is a guy. he doesn't hit it very far, right? In terms of grading against the best players in the world, he doesn't hit it very far. And the strength of the play, his play usually is his approach game. So, yeah, look, and his approach numbers are still down a little bit from the Halcyon years of a couple years ago. But at that number, I tend to lean a little bit away from him.

And I'll give you another guy who statistically profiles pretty well on this golf course. Seawoo Kemp, top 20 on the PGA tour of the season, and strokes came to approach. he has experience in these events. I think if they keep him out of the alternate shot for one of the sessions, that's going to be probably pretty key in terms of keeping his confidence up

because he's had a poor ear with the putter, but he's an excellent ball striker. I don't have the numbers in front of me in terms of the odds, but he's a guy who I had circled on the international side as someone who I think could have a good week. Yeah, on the top international point score,

Si Wu, wow, all the way down to eight to one. Well, no, it's not that bad. He is the fourth or fifth ranked player behind Sungjay, Hideki, Corey Connors. Yeah, 8-1 for Siwu's top international point score, Nate Dogg. Well, I want to get your quick assessment of two guys who I think could turn this thing for the U.S. one way or the other. And one guy is rookie in Sahith, who felt like we saw him in Napa after a really strong performance at the Tour championship. and it feels like his game is strong. So I'm interested in how he stacks up on this course.

And then juxtaposing him with Wyndham Clark, who had his sort of bipolar a year as you could almost imagine. And there were times where you said, oh, yeah, I get why this guy won a U.S. Open. And then there were times where you thought, how did this guy win a U.S. Open? And it was his performance in the Ryder Cup that might have triggered some of those problems in majors.

So in a sneaky way for Wyndham, this is a really big mental hurdle in a different way for Sahith walking in here the first time. It's certainly going to be interesting to see if mentally he can carry the form of late. How do you assess the chances of these two guys coming into this week?

So I'll start with Wyndham. There's a factor of consistency when it comes to putting players in certain formats where being super consistent maybe isn't always the best thing if you're in foursums or excuse me, four ball. If you're an

alternate shot, you want to be reliable. You want to be able to be dependable on what you're doing. Consistency is great. Variables are great in four ball. You can go out and make seven birdies, make four bogeys, but all the matters of the seven birdies, because that's the score they're taking. So I put Wyndham as a guy who I would really feature in that format instead of alternate shot. He has some interesting fits in alternate shot, but his unpredictability at times, he has really high peaks, and then he has some weeks where he doesn't look like the same guy. Good best ball player, tough if you're counting on him for every other shot. Yeah.

Correct. Yeah, but you want to put him in the spot where he's going to succeed. Confidence is high, and he's remembering the matches he won when he goes and plays so that's what I feel about Wyndham. I'm so interested to see how Sive plays. He's one of my favorite players to watch. To me, statistically, he's almost like Jordan Speeth on steroids in terms of the birdie runs he can go on or crazy, the low numbers he can put together.

and they'll have some shots where you're just like, I don't know what I just watched. Like, it's so much fun. It's so volatile. And then you look at his overall collection of numbers throughout the year, and they're really strong. 20th and strokes came off the T, top 45 in strokes gained approach,

well above average putter. He's got all these different pieces coming together to where he's going to keep building towards a guy, a guy who contends regularly in majors, breaks through and wins one in the next couple years. But I'm so interested to see how he fits into that team dynamic and how they kind of deploy him, how they see him from an analytical perspective.

And do they shelter him as a rookie or do they go out there and say, look, statistically, over the last six months, you're one of our strongest players. You're going to be one of the horses this week. Do we treat him that way? So that's another one of the more fascinating storylines going into the day long.

It's going to be so weird to see a USA team room with no Thomas and no speed. And yet, it's so time. And I think Justin Thomas probably would play better than a number of the guys in this room, just because that's what he does. But it's going to be fun as we've looked past these guys to see who can actually step into the pressure, isn't it?

Well, that is part of the storyline for 2025 that I'm super excited about. And we will get there as 2025 arrives, the return, the resumption of form of Justin Thomas and Jordan Spee. Do you think those two boys want to play on the Ryder Cup up at Bethpage? I think so.

But I do think, you know, there is a nice chemistry experiment. I do like that we're getting to Hith and Russell Henley, a little bit of exposure on this stage. The Hith more so than Russell, no offense whatsoever intended to Russell Henley. Ball striker extraordinaire should, should be playing a bunch of these matches,

but I bet the numbers are going to work out that he doesn't. But I will, you know, sort of say, as I try and size up how I'm going to handicap the thing. I've got a couple inclinations and we'll see, you know, if I, if I land. So in the first place,

I've already done it. I bet the international side, the number was plus 270 a little while ago. Yeah. And here's the thing. That number might not be there if they come out and kick butt on Thursday. And then to J. Ray's point,

they just kind of hang in there. You might not get those odds again. And the thing that we've seen the last two times that, you know, it's been non-U.S. venues, it's been super razor thin, tight going into, you know, Sunday. And, you know, a match here, match there. The international side's been within a couple points the last two times. They're closing on it. The other thing I'm interested in, though, I do like this idea of live betting the U.S.,

But on the book right now, the USA to win by one to three points is available at plus 380. And I think I'm going to do it because I think that if the U.S. wins, I think it's going to be very close. But I also want to have exposure to the international side because I think they're super live. I mean, one of those two bets is going to lose. So there's a way, though, to arbitrage this a little bit. Yeah, I think you're giving proper credence to the international side. If I had to pick a score, I was going to tell you 15.5 to 14.5 USA. I think it goes down to the wire.

I just think that they've got enough of a strategy in place for the international side. Look, I'll give you a stat that's staggering and it speaks to the talent disparity on the two rosters. The last two President's Cups, there's been 60 points on the board, 60 matches, right? In 59 of the 60 matches, the Americans had the world ranking advantage. The only time it was that they had the international side advantage was a singles match between Ust Hazen and Cocher in 2019, which is a sentence that sounds like it's from 35 years ago, based on everything that's happened. That's the kind of scale we're looking at in terms of talent depth between the teams. but I feel like they've got enough in place, enough strategy in place. And look, the Canadian Open has been top two, three event in terms of fan, noise, and experience the last seven, eight years.

That thing gets tight on Sunday. You don't think that place is going to be nuts, especially with McKinsey Hughes and singles against Max Homa or somebody. I mean, that's going to be phenomenal television. It's going to be great, great environment. I think the U.S. wins. They're simply too talented. but I like that one to three points bet a lot. I think that of 16, 14, 15 and a half, 14 and a half,

and the international side keeps climbing, keeps getting closer and closer, but I have to lean towards the United States simply because of the sheer amount of talent. The internationals are winning sometime, House. I think this is the time. I think you're exactly right. There's a bunch of reasons why you might expect complacency.

I think you could hear after day one or two, some even larger echoes about how culture matters and the U.S. doesn't have it. And on this team, it's actually true. I mean, this is Furik captaining and Kegan as a last minute insert. And so I'm not sure how much our guys take this seriously. And I believe, as Jay Ray said, that the internationals have really done a lot to build culture, sort of centered on, hey, let's, you know, the cliche grow the game standpoint. I think they actually feel like this is a way to nurture real interest in the sport from their countries if they do it well. So I'm rooting for Team USA, but I have a sense that at some point,

International is going to win this thing, and this could be the year. Yeah, all I say I'm rooting for is great. I want to be some drama. I mean, we've had to wake up early. Now, kudos, very quick aside to the European tour, because two straight weeks, incredible outcomes. Like, we have to figure out a way to get the Irish open and to get the BMWs. at Wentworth. Get it some shine. Let's get it on some TV. I'm waking up early and I'm finding

it. I'm hunting down on the cock and wherever, wherever they may be showing it. It's a, it's a goddamn distressing experience. But that's great golf. That's been extremely dramatic. That's all I'm rooting for out of these next four days. And I do like that they have it spread out here because the momentum, the drama can kind of build. I mean, I'm into that part of it. Sleep on it for sure. Yeah, for sure. That's exactly right. So any parting thoughts, Jay, Ray? No, I think this is going to be a great week.

I hope the weather isn't too much of a story. That's another thing that's kind of hovering over. We should see some rain throughout the week, but hopefully that's not too much of a factor. I'm looking forward to a great competition. And this event continuing to evolve and grow and continue to get better. It took the Ryder Cup. It takes these things a while to get footing.

It's been a topic of conversation this year, a lot with the WMBA and people are like, look, it's been around for a quarter century. That's kind of a little bit longer for the President's Cup. Like you create an event like that. It takes time to develop prestige, right? So a little more competitive balance and the international side picking off a couple will really get the juices going for this. But yeah, I think it's going to be a great week.

Royal Montreal is going to show out and there's going to be some unbelievable crowds there in Canada. Yeah. How's Billy Horshull's the number 17th ranked player in the world. Should he be here? No, he had his chance to make the team and he missed the window. He's done that a couple times now. I like Billy Horschel.

When he gets left off of teams, he wins the BMW. That's the way. That's how he does it. He's in good position for the Ryder Cup. He is right now. And I would be interested to see him play in that environment. But no, no, no, Billy Ho this week. I love it, Nate, Doug.

You're trying to stir up some controversy as your parting thought. We are all going to be rooting for great golf, and I'm in the same position as you guys. I think the U.S. is going to win, but I'm going to be on that one to three points plus 380, and I do have my exposure to the internationals. My birdie buddies, my par saving pals, my eagle enthusiasts. We're going to see a lot of all that stuff this coming weekend.

Please find the President's Cup on wherever it may be. that NBC is showing it. And if you're able to, the seasons are changing, at least here on the East Coast. It's just marvelous out. Throw a peg in the ground, and let's hit them straight out there.

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