Fairway Rollin' - The Metrics for Success at the Open Championship | Fairway Rollin’

Episode Date: July 17, 2019

Joe House is joined by the 15th Club’s Justin Ray to break down the 2019 Open Championship, including the story lines heading into the weekend, his prioritized metrics for success, players he likes ...from an analytics standpoint, and the pressure on Rory McIlroy (3:20). Then Chris Vernon calls in to offer his Open Championship picks (64:15). Host: Joe House Guest: Justin Ray, Chris Vernon Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 My power saving pals, this edition of Fairway Rowland, brought to you as always by our pals at Callaway Golf. Hey, if you want to see this championship version of the Royal Port Rush Golf Club in actual championship conditions, you want to just get your head around it in a kind of a preview mode before you sit down and start watching the real professionals to get out there. You have to see New York Giants wide receiver, Golden Tate. He traveled to Northern Ireland a few weeks ago, and they shot him playing this golf course. T to Green, you can see a whole bunch of shots. You're going to see the twists and turns that Royal Port Rush has to deliver. They captured a whole thing in this collaboration between the Players Tribune and Callaway Media Productions.
Starting point is 00:00:53 It's called A Journey North. You get to see Port Rush. It's lush, it's green, it's windy. Everybody's in sweaters. It'll put you right into the Open Championship mood. Right now, it is available this video at CallawayGolf.com. Check out Gold Tate on the grounds at Royal Port Rush. My friends, this episode of Fairway Roll,
Starting point is 00:01:15 and also brought to you by Destination Kohler in Kohler, Wisconsin, the home of Whistling Straits, Black Wolf Run, and the upcoming 2020 Rider Cup. Golf Digest ranked all four Kohler courses in the top 100 of America's public courses, including Meadow Valleys, the home of number 14, nature's course. That's the hole, arguably,
Starting point is 00:01:42 the most breathtaking hole at the entire resort. Gather your birdie buddies for the ultimate tournament style summer golf experience. Get yourself roll in. to destinationcaller.com to book your package today. That's destinationcoler.com. Hello, friends. Welcome to this golf podcast, unlike any other.
Starting point is 00:02:10 Oh, my friends, this is it. This is the one. It's a bittersweet moment. You're here. You've arrived. The final major of the season is upon us. You are farewell rolling. Here on the golf podcast.
Starting point is 00:02:28 by the Ringer Podcast Network. I'm your starter, Joe House. How about this Wednesday tradition we have Rowland here on Fairway Rowland? You know we have Justin Ray from the 15th Club, head of content there. We're mapping out all the angles. We're mapping out what attributes we need out of a potential winner. And we're giving out some great names to pay attention to. We're trying to help you.
Starting point is 00:02:58 your fantasy, your DFS, and your pocketbook. And I wouldn't be a major week without Verno. Chris Vernon is on to help us with epic flash pick of the week. He and I have some head-to-head, some matchups that were very keen on breaking down. You're going to enjoy that. The first tee looks open. Let's jump over there. Me and Justin Ray are going to go ahead and tee off right now.
Starting point is 00:03:21 Now on the T from USA, Justin Ray. Yo, J.R. How you doing, House? Are we ready for the Open Championship? Man, this is spectacular. What a time to be convened. I said on Monday's preview show, the homie, Kyle Porter from CBS Sports made the observation that he thinks that this is the correct order. And as the week is sort of going along and I'm thinking about it, I really, really love this place that the, the, uh, we're going to call it the British Open. I mean, I know it's Open championship and, you know, we can, we can have all the nerds yell at us, but I just want to call it the British Open for the purposes of the, of the pod. But I just love
Starting point is 00:04:10 ending the purpose of brevity, clearness. That's it. That's right. We're, we're nothing, if not brief on the podcast. That, that's the opposite is true, obviously. But I just love where it falls in the sequence of majors. It just feels right to be capping off the major run with this tournament in this place at this particular time with the talent pool that we have. Each of the times we've convened and we were very appreciative of you joining us for each of the four majors this season. But every time we get together, we say, can you believe how great the talent pool is, how deep it is, how lucky we are to have 10 or 15 or 20 guys that can win this. And the same is absolutely true once again with this British Open.
Starting point is 00:05:00 Do you agree? Yeah, I agree completely. If your point about the order being correct, you know, I felt at the PGA championship, it made the BGA feel bigger too. You know, sometimes some years, depending on what the storylines are and, you know, who's playing well, where the PGA might be. It almost kind of felt like a little bit of an afterthought,
Starting point is 00:05:19 which it didn't deserve. It's a huge, awesome championship. And to have that position there between the masses and the U.S. Open, I thought it made that feel a bit bigger as well. And now you can end the major championship season at the original major. You know, you're at the home of golf. This feels like the used to be in. And to your point about that, I mean, the storyline, you know,
Starting point is 00:05:47 just like they were fantastic at the Masters and at the next two major championships, you know, we're right there too with, you know, Brooks Kepka continuing his reign of terror over major championship. golf and, you know, Dustin Johnson trying to erase the demons of major champions. You know, people are, I'm not, obviously not from there, but men who have much more, you know, valid opinions about this than being on the matter,
Starting point is 00:06:14 say it's the biggest sporting event in the history of North. So to think that Rory McElroy, the favorite son, is going to go try to win the open in a place that star that's huge. Of course, you've got Tiger Woods, he won the Masters earlier this year, hasn't played in the Pebble Beach, does he still have it in them to compete?
Starting point is 00:06:33 in an open championship held the lead on Sunday in the final round last year. I could keep going. I'm talking to the next 15 minutes, though. So, I mean, there's just so many great storylines going to be open. I can't wait for them and put pegs on the ground on Thursday, get the same going. I feel the same way. I can barely contain myself. You're mentioning all these names.
Starting point is 00:06:50 I just want to do every single name right now. But look, we are grown up. We're grown-ass men, Justin Ray. So we're going to do it. We're going to be deliberate. We want to provide for all of our listeners an orderly path. to help them have success in their fantasy endeavors and, and let's be honest, more importantly, in their cash endeavors.
Starting point is 00:07:11 So let's try and be sober about this. We're going to try and, and I'm going to keep the zipper zipped up for at least another little while here and just try and walk through this where we are at a venue that is unfamiliar. And it's unfamiliar, not just to the golf consumer, public to those of us that are fans of the game and live in the game. But it's also unfamiliar to the players that are going to be competing at this year's 148th Open Championship. And, you know, there really isn't much that can be drawn from the most recent competition there,
Starting point is 00:07:54 which are the most recent professional competition there, the 2012 Irish Open because a couple holes have changed and they did kind of an 18 month renovation that included greens and some number of greens, five greens, some number of T boxes, eight T boxes and you know, the little bit of yardage changing as well. So for all intents and purposes, it's kind of a new, unfamiliar venue for an analytics guy like you and the 15th club, how do you, crunch, create your list of metrics that are going to matter as you try and assess the fortunes of the competitors this week? Right.
Starting point is 00:08:41 Well, so we obviously don't have a ton of how it's laid out this week, player past history on this course. But I think there are enough similarities when you take player performance and course statistics from linked style courses like Royal Port Rush over the last 10 years or so. And you can take that information. You can glean some meaningful conclusions from it. So, like, we can take the three. results of players who have overperformed or underperformed in Link's style golf, and compared to
Starting point is 00:09:08 their performance baseline week to week in events that are different from Link Style, I think it can be some pretty telling information. So, like per se, over the last decade, the three best players in terms of strokes gained in Link's golf are Adam Scott, Henrik Stenson, and Sergio Garcia. And if you just hear their three name, you can think, okay, yeah, that makes sense. Adam Scott should have won an open in 2012 it was. Henrik Stenson won that Open Championship, that duel with Phil Nicholson. Sergio has 10 top tens in the open. He's never won, but he's come close a number of times.
Starting point is 00:09:37 You could see, you know, that kind of fits the mold. Those are the three guys who over the last 10 years or so are the most consistent best performance on link style golf courses. And so we don't have the exact, you know, we don't have a lot of info, like you said, the only meaningful professional competition that's been held on this golf course was seven years ago, and they've removed holes and added new holes since then. So you can't take that, you know, and take a lot of really meaningful data out of that. But if you take
Starting point is 00:10:04 some courses that are very similar, whether it's the Irish Open, Scottish Open, the British Masters on a couple of particular layouts, we're able to glean some things from that too. And then we've also got members of our 15 club team on the ground at Royal Port Rush working with our players that we have
Starting point is 00:10:20 and talking to, you know, the caddies and picking up anything extra we can garner along the way. So it's kind of a roundabout way to try to get the best information possible. It's not like we, this isn't We don't get to go there every year. It's not these years and years and rounds and rounds of data to pull from, but we do have
Starting point is 00:10:39 a good idea of who we think and succeed and what the course is going to be like when it comes to this week. So let's get specific. There are a couple of metrics. I know having the good fortune of being a subscriber to the 15th Club newsletter, the one that came out Tuesday morning, was very rich with information and data that will help us kind of narrow our approach to this, help us tailor our betting card or our fantasy lineups. One of the things, one metric that seems to be very important is bogey avoidance.
Starting point is 00:11:18 Where do you have that in your list of sort of prioritized metrics for success? It's high up there. Typically in Link's golf, the players are contend in these championships. it's not making a zillion birdies that is the determining factor. It's avoiding the big mistakes. So whether that's not missing as much off the T, because we think that our data tells us that compared to other venues on the European and PGA tours, poor rush is going to be more penalizing for players who miss off the tea in the rough than normally week to week.
Starting point is 00:11:54 So that's another number we're looking at too. But yeah, bogey avoidance is really high on there. and, you know, usually in Link's golf, it's not making just, you know, tons and tons of birdies. It's avoiding the big number. It's managing golf course. It's knowing when to go for, when to lay back. And, of course, you know, the underlying factor that always, it's always there when it comes to the open championship in Link's style golf, is the weather going to kick up or we've got to have a lot of win. That's going to be a deciding factor, too, and how players can manage that.
Starting point is 00:12:24 Players have lower ball flights than to have more success on Link's courses, guys who had flat or shots, if you think like a match. Matt Coutcher who's had success here the last few years at the open. So bogey avoidance definitely high up there as well as, you know, trying to keep it straight off the tee because those fairway bunkers are extremely penalizing. It's not just the, you know, the pot bunkers aren't just a visual thing when it comes to the open. It's a strategic flashpoint for guys to stay out of those because you can, if you get a bad line in those, it could cost you a shot, maybe even too.
Starting point is 00:12:53 Yeah. And on the bogey avoidance point, one of the things I was surprised by, in the research for our chat today. I didn't remember this. Frankie Molinari last year, bogey free over the weekend. No bogey Saturday or Sunday. And took down the title really because of that ability to avoid,
Starting point is 00:13:17 you know, anything that's going to impair his pursuit of par. Another trait that seems to be pretty important is the scrambling category. Where do you guys have that one? That's player for green. You know, Tiger talk today about how these greens at Royal Por Rush tend to repel approach shots, kind of like you might see it like Pinehurst as opposed to something you might see it like, you know, a carnucie or St. Andrews where shots can kind of roll in and funnel towards the green.
Starting point is 00:13:55 You might see approach shots here kind of repel off the green a little bit. So you're going to have to be, you know, on point with your chip shots. You're going to see a lot of guys. some non-conventional wedge shots, the things we'd love to see at the Open Championship, guys pulling out three and four irons and trying to hit a little bump and run shots. It's not going to be your big week-to-week on the PGA tour, you know, fill-flop shots that are going to be really important this week. Scrambling, especially in the non-conventional form,
Starting point is 00:14:22 with those less loft at clubs around the greens, is going to prove to be pretty important. So guys are going to miss greens this week. Balls are going to run off. You've got to be able to chip it close, get your par, and get to the next T-box. You mentioned the accuracy off-the-T metric as having kind of a heightened importance compared to previous Open Championships.
Starting point is 00:14:47 In fact, last year at Karnoosti, because of the dry conditions, the rough there and the fescue was sort of best described as wispy, and you could miss and still advanced the ball. the observation you made and it's been you know seconded and thirded by by the players there you know and you can see it from the early pictures that we're seeing of the golf course
Starting point is 00:15:17 you know from live from and so forth the footage so far it's lush it's green and the rough looks like it gets up there pretty close now when you think about the accuracy off the tee is there one of the handful of accuracy measures that's more important than the others? Is it fairways hit in regulation?
Starting point is 00:15:38 Is it percentage of fairways hit? Like, what's important? Yeah, I think that's probably the best way to go about it is just fairway percentage, which seems like it's a pretty basic number to look at. But it does give you an indication of not just, you know, obviously how accurate a guy is off the tee. But in length style golf, you know, the course is pretty shorter than traditionally they might on like a regular PGA tour event where, you know, you've got a carry.
Starting point is 00:16:02 at longer distances. Link's courses are set up to where a guy like Henrik Sensen, who 65% of the time, instead of driver off, he, he's not penalized for losing those 20, 25, 30 yards. He gets a little bit of run out. And the courses, you know, the holes are a little bit shorter.
Starting point is 00:16:20 He's got a comparable for, approach to a par four or par five as guys to pull driver and rip it and have a, you know, huge ball flight. So, yeah, I think it seems like a pretty basic metric to look at, but, you know, I would stick the guys who are, you know, probably in the upper 40%, upper 35% of driving accuracy on their respect for this season.
Starting point is 00:16:42 Okay. I like it because there's one guy that I'm really bullish on. And we're going to, we'll get to, you know, we'll get to the comparing of notes. But there's one guy who I love because of his bogey avoidance and his scrambling numbers this year. They're incredible. but his accuracy off the T is the one thing that has me tapping the brakes. And since we're, since I,
Starting point is 00:17:09 I, I, we might as well just go ahead and talk about him. We're going to cover Rory. We're going to cover Tiger. Don't worry. We'll cover DJ. We got Brooks lined up,
Starting point is 00:17:17 everybody. But I'm, I'm really, um, just in the last like 24 hours, seeing all of these numbers and data that have me absolutely falling in love with Patrick Cantley. Um,
Starting point is 00:17:29 and the, and the only thing, that has me tapping the brakes on him is that accuracy off the T measure. He leads the tour right now in bogey avoidance. He's first in scrambling. He's 10th and strokes gained off the T. He's 12th approach. And his strong suit, you know, sort of coming on tour was supposed to be putting.
Starting point is 00:17:52 He's 25th in putting. He also, I love, you know, you were on with Pat Mayo over the weekend on the P&E. experience and a trend that you guys talked about that I do think is really important to this open championship and trying to come up with a handful of guys that can win is the trend line of, you know, guys having one within fairly recent measure here, you know, fairly recent sort of timeline. Some number of like five out of the past six winners of the open championship have a win in one of their handful of starts coming into this event. Can't lay fits that metric.
Starting point is 00:18:35 He won the, the memorial. That was his third start, you know, some time ago. And you also, I loved your stat. And this is the thing that they were going to have to like kind of noodle through, um, that showed up in the newsletter today. The last time a player took off between the U.S. Open and the British Open and arrived at the British Open and won the British Open. Well, I'll just let you, you share the stat.
Starting point is 00:19:01 It's your status. It's in your newsletter. Yeah, Johnny Miller, 1976. And when I was looking into that, I figured it had to have happened for maybe like Tiger once or there had to be some in two majors. And then one, it has not happened since Johnny Miller more than 40 years ago. So if we think that that's really important, then we're going to cross off some guys, some pretty important guys, some guys that we think, you know,
Starting point is 00:19:33 otherwise we would have a chance to win. Can this be sort of the gating metric? We don't have to worry about that with Patrick Cantlay because they went and played at the travelers and he had a tie for 15th at the traveler. So we understand how important form is. But let's do, let's quickly go down that sub tangent of, you know, how, how important it seems to be to play competitive golf between the U.S. Open and the British Open have a shot at winning the British Open three guys that unfortunately fall on the wrong side of that metric.
Starting point is 00:20:07 Zander Schoffley, who's been who I really like, well, I really like a lot. Boy, I mean, can he break the trend? I mean, you know, there's got to be at some point some regression. It hasn't happened in forever, but I will say that this is a much obviously the schedule is completely different
Starting point is 00:20:24 this year. Now, I know between the U.S. Open and the open, it's not different, but the months leading up to that, it's a little more content. So you probably, we probably see a few more of this, the normal, and the tiger is a total aberration because of the nature of his career and his back and you know, all that. But
Starting point is 00:20:39 I mean, look, it hasn't happened that long for a reason. And a lot of the guys who have won in recent years played the week before, I think it's something like eight of the last nine open champions played the week before. Most of them playing the Scottish Open the week before. So they were used, they're acclimated, and
Starting point is 00:20:55 you know, used to the time switch or whatever, or they, you know, are normally your people players anyway. but yeah, I don't know. I think it's, you know, you can't take off for a month and just show up at the open and win, can you? I mean, that's kind of what that fact sells you, but, you know, man, I like Zander a lot. I think him a lot this week.
Starting point is 00:21:15 It's funny, of the three guys that you would otherwise think would really have a great chance of winning this, I like Xander sort of the most, but the other guys you have to cross off if you subscribe to that data point, are Adam Scott, who has, as you just mentioned, an incredible performance over the years at Link's golf and in the Open Championship and Tiger Woods. And you got to just say, well, you know, it hasn't happened in 40 years. This isn't going to be the year where the guys break the trend.
Starting point is 00:21:48 So Adam Scott, Tiger Woods and Danvers Schaafley off the list. It hurts to do it. It hurts my heart, Justin Ray. It does, especially the way he's played in Link's golf. way that it's the Open championship the last few years. The average age of winners at the Open since 2011 is about 36 years old, which is five years more than any other of the majors in that span. Experience has always paid off. Adam's Todd kind of fits that mold too. You know, a guy who should have won the Open seven years ago fell up, I think he bogey the last four
Starting point is 00:22:29 holes to lose down the L's. I mean, yeah, but if we want to stick to the facts and if we're married to that trend, you know, those are guys you've got to whittle off. when you get to the window. Well, this is what we'll do. Maybe this is what we'll do for all our par saving pals out there. Just go play them as a top five. You get plus odds for all three of those guys. I don't have the odds up right the second.
Starting point is 00:22:51 But at least you'll get at least two to one to top five, Adam Scott, maybe closer to three to one to top five's shuffly. And, you know, Tiger's odds are always skewed because the betting public loves him so much. probably just a little bit better than two to one, probably like two and a half to one would be my guess for where he's coming in right now. Play those three as top five. It doesn't diminish their standing and their accomplishment
Starting point is 00:23:21 if they don't outright win the thing if all they do is top five and you collect a little bit on a ticket that way. I will tell you this. Help me with this. I want to do a quick aside on Adam Scott. He really looked like on the front nine at Pebble Beach. and honestly, all the way up through the 12th hole at Pebble Beach to be a guy that wanted to go out and grab that golf tournament. And then he hit the ball somewhere right of Russia on the 13th hole in a place that I don't think like if I turn my whole body and lined up and try to hit it there.
Starting point is 00:23:56 I don't know if it's possible to hit it as far right as he hit it. And I can't get over that lasting image of him with the tournament really like he was making. a move where it felt like he could put a little bit of pressure on Gary Woodland, and then he just disappeared because he blasted one, you know, right of right. Help me get that bad taste out of my mouth with Adam Scott. It's so, it is so jarring to see a swing that beautiful that Adam Scott has create something that hideous.
Starting point is 00:24:28 Like it's just a jarring visual. That's so true. The tempo is perfect. Like, it's everything that you would, you know, his swing is. Tiger 2000. That's how he learned. Golf swing. That's what it is. Tiger was in 2000, except it somehow is better tempo than Tiger had been. And then to see
Starting point is 00:24:44 that result, man. But that's like, you know, one of the few bad shots he's hit over the last, you know, three, four months, and especially in major championships. He's been so good, you know, going back to Bell Reeb last year at the PGA when he was in the mix. Great point. Great point. Yeah. He's really
Starting point is 00:25:00 kind of feel like he's, he's reaching, it's a little bit of a career renaissance. And, you know, a guy had this good of a performance at the open the last several years. He's fourth in scoring average among all players at the open this decade. Nearly one as I talked about several years
Starting point is 00:25:16 ago contended a number of times. Yeah, I mean, you know, he's tough not to like. As far as the U.S. Open though, no one was beating Gary Woodland that week. No, no, no, no. If first Kefka wasn't going to beat him, nobody was going to be Jerry. So, no shame in a top 10 at Pebble Beach in the U.S. Open when
Starting point is 00:25:32 you could beat by guys playing like that. Well, and how about this? I'm going to give us a pat on the back, even though Gary Woodman didn't come out of your mouth or my mouth when we were talking about the preview for the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach. I'll be damned if he didn't lead the field in the two categories that you identified as being the most important categories for success at Pebble. There just wasn't anything in his form leading up to Pebble that made us think that, you know, he had that breakthrough kind of lurking, you know what I mean?
Starting point is 00:26:03 but he led the field in greens and in strokes gained approach, and he was second in percentage behind Brooks. So, you know, he was like 72%, which was the Tiger Woods level greens and regulation over the course of his 2000 dominant performance. So a terrific dominant performance out of Woodland. We got the measures right. We just couldn't get the guy, Justin. Yeah, it didn't count when you go try to cash.
Starting point is 00:26:33 the ticket, doesn't. The book doesn't care. They could care less. No, they don't. They're heartless. We've talked a little bit about Tiger. Let's go ahead and just kind of dispense with him. And I don't mean dismiss him, but I think we can have a short conversation and give
Starting point is 00:26:52 our sentiments on him. I have to say, I did not like it all. He gave a Tuesday afternoon press conference and talked about his preference. his preparation not being all the way there yet, that he still was looking for a range session on Wednesday to feel like his preparation was, is going to be complete. I don't like the sound of that, Justin. Yeah, I mean, I tend to look to going into, when you know that a golf course is going to be penalizing off the tee, that's not good news for Tiger.
Starting point is 00:27:27 I mean, you know, essentially at Augusta National, you can miss as far right, left, as you want, and the rough is not existed. It's not penalizing. Like, besides being behind a tree, you know, missing the fairway doesn't matter. So it kind of makes sense that the two best performers, 15 years, 20 years are Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, two guys who have succeeded
Starting point is 00:27:48 in spite of, you know, not being great in terms of accuracy off the tee. This is going to be the opposite. This is a place that is going to reward hitting the ball in the fairway. And, you know, I know Tiger is at his best when it's not penalizing. He's able to dial it back. He can do like he did a carnusty
Starting point is 00:28:04 last year where he's hitting three and four irons off of every T, you know, five irons. I saw he actually put a two iron in his back. And I cannot remember the last time Tiger Woods had a two iron in there, but probably going to see a ton of stingers, which are always fun to watch, especially out there having an open championship. Man, I love those. It's going to be fun to see, but I'm kind of with you. You know, you don't like hearing him talk about that from like a, you know, just personal
Starting point is 00:28:30 perspective, it's great to hear him like, I went to Thailand with my kids and it meant a lot and you're like, yeah, okay, he's got his head screwed on, right? It seems like, you know, he's doing things like life-wise the right way. But, you know, heartless cyborg competitor Tiger wouldn't say any of that stuff going into a major championship, you know, the guy from 10 years ago, 12 years ago. So, yeah, it is a little bit strange. The other thing, too, I'll say, anyone with a bad back will tell you that cold weather is not going to help you in any way. Now, I think luckily for him, and, you know, it's kind of, this is anecdotal, totally, I don't have any idea. it's bothering him or not.
Starting point is 00:29:05 I just know when it's cold outside, everything takes longer and is tougher to do. And so if we get some weather, we get some proper open wind and rain and some chill be a positive thing for a 43-year-old guy with four back surgery. So just something else to keep in mind if the weather gets nasty that, you know,
Starting point is 00:29:29 the guy is mortal, the guy is human, and you've got a few spine. So, you know, I don't know, maybe one with the bar of expectations of the tad if we see some nasty weather. Yeah, I mean, it's still okay. It doesn't, it's not a Tiger heresy to go ahead and just make a top,
Starting point is 00:29:44 top 10 bed on them just to have a little something on. I mean, we all want to see Tiger play on Sunday. I want to pick up on your point. I mean, I like your point about him. You know, he's, he's living his life. He's got other stuff going on. He's getting ready for the President's Cup and all the responsibilities that go along with that. He went to Thailand with his family. It was surprising to me to see. in the news reports that like the first time he ever played these golf holes at Royal Port Rush was Sunday when he got out there and then and you know for for a practice round that that also really runs contrary to to cyborg tiger it was we made fun of him a little bit on this podcast him waking
Starting point is 00:30:29 up you know they did that video with Nike where he was waking up at one in the morning and and uh you know just to get his body acclimated well how about this he looked terrible. His eyes were puffy. And if you're going to wake up at that time and morning, why don't you just do it at Ireland, buddy? And then you could go play the golf course. Now, look, far be it for me to ever criticize
Starting point is 00:30:50 Eldrick Tiger Woods. But, you know. All valid point. Just making an observation. All right. That's enough on Tiger. We're rooting for... I will say one more thing about him at a course he hasn't played before.
Starting point is 00:31:04 The last time he went to a major championship, at a course that he had never played before in competition last year and he finished second. You know, I'll just throw that out there. It might not be as significant as we think. I'm more concerned about the rough being penalizing because that's something that has always been bothersome for Tiger. Okay. Well, maybe I'll just sprinkle a little on your top five bet too, top five, top ten. Then you've got your juice on Tiger and you can root for him that you wake up Sunday morning with your, your croissants and your coffee.
Starting point is 00:31:40 And he's out there. That would be great for everybody. Let's do the biggest story, the biggest storyline. Let's do this dude right now. And let's just call him player A for the second, I mean, for the moment. I'm going to steal some of your stats and I'll let you fill in. This gentleman we're about to cover has four top five finishes
Starting point is 00:32:04 at the Open Championship in the past five years. He has the best score in relation to par. at the Open Championship over the past five years. He has the best scoring average at the Open Championship. He's second in birdies and Eagles per round. And he has the second most rounds in the 60s, even though he missed one of the Open Championships competed over the past five years because the homie he had to play kickabout.
Starting point is 00:32:35 Obviously, I'm talking about none other than Northern Ireland's native son, Rory McElroy. Justin, how are we feeling about it, this guy? this guy also shot 61 on this golf course when he was 16. So, I mean, look, if you took all the, all the, you know, human side away and just looked at all the numbers, you would say, I mean, obviously this guy, he's won two huge events already this year, the Canadian Open and the players, he's statistically crossed the board, he's been fantastic, he's played consistently great, he's been terrific at the open over the last few years, including a win, finished second last year. this is just such an immense event in his home country. And I can't imagine the kind of pressure the guy has on him this week. It's totally unique, too, in terms of, I really recommend a column by a friend of mine great writer
Starting point is 00:33:23 to Damon Lynch, who's from Northern Ireland. Oh, yeah, we love Aeman Lynch. Absolutely. And he was terrific. And he wrote about some of the historic perspective. I really recommend people to get a background of things like, you know, I didn't know a whole lot about the troubles between Ireland and Northern Ireland. It's not something I was immensely familiar with, but he's, you know,
Starting point is 00:33:40 you know, brushing up on a little bit, this is a special week for Northern Ireland to be able to showcase their country and have this big of a, I mean, their guys. This is the biggest athlete. I mean, I might be missing. But this is Roy McElroy. He's the biggest star from this country in sports. And it's such an immense week with so much on his shoulders. You wonder what kind of effect that's going to have on him. But look, he's already, he's a Rydokupup legend, a major champ, four-time.
Starting point is 00:34:14 major champion, only 30 years old. He's obviously had enormous moments on the biggest stage in his stages in sports. This is probably his biggest stage that he's ever had, which is amazing to think. He's one leg away from the career range. It's such an immense story. I can't wait to watch and see what he does, especially those first two rounds. So my question to you, and we're going to do a little psycho babble because there's no way of knowing this, but is it possible?
Starting point is 00:34:48 to glean something from what we've observed in the Ryder Cups, where he does seem to derive some energy from the crowds, both hostile crowds here in the U.S. And the obviously wildly supportive crowds in Europe, that the energy of the people there who all will be rooting for him with every fiber in their being for him to be successful, do we think, I mean, because the counter to this is the pressure that we've seen him not perform great in response to pressure that he seems to put on his own self at like the masters comes to mind most prominently. But is it possible that like the sheer will of the people of Northern Ireland can can will him into a success and he'll be able to, to,
Starting point is 00:35:48 get outside of himself with whatever self-doubt creates the unfortunate, or not unfortunate, but like the slightly disappointing results at the Masters. What do you think about that? Right. It's interesting. You know, I think the European, your rider cups in your point is an interesting corollary. That event is just so unique. It's just unlike anything else in golf in terms of the team environment, you know, the, you know, the support you have, home, you know, the adversarial.
Starting point is 00:36:18 you know, fans you have a way. It's just not like anything else in golf. So I'm not sure we can make a direct line from the Ryder Cup to what we might think this week. But I will say, you know, we have just so many big passionate moments in Rory's young career so far where he's come through and played unbelievable golf. Yeah, maybe we could, that's a good point that maybe we have seen him in these big moments where he's got this kind of, you know, the will behind behind.
Starting point is 00:36:48 him. He's the face and the heart of that European Ryder Cup team. I know he's younger than Sergio Stinson years past Westwood, etc. But yeah, no, I think you might be able to glean a little bit from that. But it's tough just because the Ryder Cup is such a unique environment.
Starting point is 00:37:04 Yeah, it's a different animal altogether. And honestly, pressure-wise, it's kind of a different thing. It's tough. I don't think the pressure we could really draw any kind of direct line between the pressure he's going to be feeling this week and that that Ryder Cup pressure. So we'll just wait and see. I mean, you know, nobody's played better
Starting point is 00:37:28 than Rory this season, even notwithstanding Brooks in the majors. Nobody's had more top 10 finishes and, you know, his two wins have been great. Another hallmark win with the win at the players. Let's move over, having mentioned Brooks, you guys, at the 15th Club and you specifically Justin Ray had a Monday newsletter. Ten notes to know Brooks Kepka heads to Royal Port Rush, an unknown
Starting point is 00:37:59 commodity and, you know, the British Open being the one tournament that we haven't seen dominant Brooks at. But a lot of trendline supporting Brooks here. What are your thoughts on Brother Kepka? I think that, you know, if you had to pick what course fits to Brooke
Starting point is 00:38:17 kept his game best right now in golf. You just pick Earth. Everywhere fits. That's right. That's right. It doesn't matter where it is, what style it is. The man, at the beginning of 2017, it's 35 shots better than anyone else in major championships.
Starting point is 00:38:35 He's finished you their first or second in four in a row. The last got to finish you the first or second in the first three majors of a season was Tiger in 2005. I mean, it does not happen very often. This kind of consistent, great play, he's led after Major Samuant's around 13 times in the last three years. That's more than some Hall of Famers' entire careers. Like it's an unbelievable run of what he's done in majors. The way he's able to dialed up, I'll also point to the fact that he's had some success on European link-style golf courses. Remember, he came up through the European Tour.
Starting point is 00:39:08 He won an event in Scotland on the Challenge Tour before everyone knew his name. his caddy is actually from Northern Ireland, which is a fascinating aspect with something you'll probably hear 700 times during the broadcast. Yeah, well, and not just from Northern Ireland, but like extensive experience at Port Rush, like has played it, you know, hundreds of times. Right.
Starting point is 00:39:31 And you would think on a course where nobody really seemingly knows a whole lot of anything that any kind of information is going to be somewhat of an advantage, not that Brooks needs any more of an advantage in the first place. I mean, you know, the guy's been, you have to pencil them in until further notice as the favorite in any major championship he goes to, as well as, you know, like, as well as John Rom's played, as Rory McElroy and the obvious storylines there, Justin Johnson's top of this game. You have to have Kepka, I think head and shoulders is a favor going in,
Starting point is 00:40:04 just because of how awesome he's been in these major championships going in. So, yeah, you know, compared to the other things. three majors. We haven't seen him have, you know, relatively a ton of success. But, you know, he led after the opening round a couple of years ago when Jordan's Jeep won and then, you know, made a couple of, he had a rough second round that week. You know, he's, he's had some good finishes in the open championship. And I specifically point to the fact that he's had experience all over the world, all types of golf courses, you know, one in, I don't have the top of my head, but it's something like 12, 13, different countries maybe, you know, over the course of
Starting point is 00:40:40 his professional career across all the fours. So, yeah, I mean, how can you not talk about the guy and be excited to see what he does here? He's, you know, rewriting history books, you know, every time he steps onto a T-box and a major. Yeah, and I'm especially excited to see, you know, there's been some early speculation that folks will be leaving driver in the bag. he especially he even maybe more so than Rory feels like he uses his driver as a fairway finder and with the benefit of his caddy Ricky Elliott being able to like point to things and say you know hit it here and then Brooke stepping up with driver and like hitting it there I'm just really excited there are like you know a number of drivable par fours potentially even par fours that that
Starting point is 00:41:33 you know will extend out over 400 yards You can catch speed slots. You can catch certain bounces, certain lines, and get close to the green. I'm just excited to see what he's capable of at this unknown venue. I'm with you. And I really love the quote Tiger had in the press center, it was either Tuesday or Monday, where he said, yeah, I texted Kepka and graduated him on, you know, another great finish at Pebble Beach and asked him if we could have a practice round at Royal Port Rush.
Starting point is 00:42:03 And Kepka didn't respond. He didn't answer him. You know, he doesn't want Tiger getting any extra information. You know, this is part of his chief competition, but you imagine Tiger asked to play a practice round with me, just ghost the guy. That's unbelievable. So that gives you a little glimpse of the kind of competitor kept as where he sees himself at the game at this point, as he should.
Starting point is 00:42:22 The biggest balls. What did you call him? What's the superlative supernova? Right. Yeah, because I just, you know, he makes it easy for me because I just keep coming up with crazy notes about what he's. achieving in majors. So yeah. It's a perlative supernova.
Starting point is 00:42:39 Well, we have to add to it with the Stonyas stones. I mean, what balls on that guy? Incredible balls. Sorry, Tiger. I bet he goes and talks to Tiger afterwards. Yeah, yeah. And it's look, it's so much fun to have a guy that, you know, got a little edge to him
Starting point is 00:42:55 at the top of the game. You know, it's a great, he's a great quote in the media center. He kind of, you know, it can probably, it probably brushes a few media people the wrong way, but I find it entertaining because the guy clearly he's yeah he's here to win major championships point blank period into story so you know that tiger that tiger thing was that i got a huge kick out of that you and me both well there i want to make sure we cover a few other guys but there's another guy
Starting point is 00:43:22 at the top of the list uh that i just want to get your your your thoughts on and you had a note about him in in today's newsletter i want to talk about dustin johnson um because you know just sort of on the face of it, this venue looks like a venue that would set up great for Dustin. And he has a great, you know, he's an accomplished links player. But the stat that you have in here is that he's not been able to close out in the final round of his British Open run. So what do you think about DJ? Yeah, it's pretty staggering. Since 2010, Dustin is 22 under par in rounds one, two, three at the open.
Starting point is 00:44:03 He's 20 over in the final round. It's an unbelievable split between rounds one and three and what he's done on Sunday at the open. You know, he fits the profile of the guys who, if the wind is down, guys who bomb it a long way are going to be able to take full advantage. And, you know, you can see, you know, Dustin go out and shoot a really low score. There's so many players in the field, guys like him, a guy like Tony Cienow, Gary Woodland, the U.S. Open champion, where, you know, I don't know what to think of their chance. this week until I know how windy it's going to be.
Starting point is 00:44:40 And I wish I had that information because I'd probably be a wister man because of it. But I mean, I just think that, you know, his ability to take advantage of the driver and, you know, make a ton of bird, go low, be aggressive. I think that's such a huge part of his game. And I think that the famous week is, you know, if he gets a favorable draw with the wind, with the weather, you know, I really like him a lot. You know, we saw last week in the Scottish Open there was something like, I think there might have been like 30 guys
Starting point is 00:45:13 at 15 under or better. It was crazy because there was no, there's no defense for that golf course. Like the wind was non-existent. It looked kind of baked out. And, you know, these guys can hit it 315, 325, whatever it is off the tee.
Starting point is 00:45:27 You know, they're going to make a ton of birdies on the par fours and par five. So that's what I mentioned with DJ. I mean, you know, he held a 36tholead open a few years ago. He nearly won it. Royal St. George's in 2011.
Starting point is 00:45:39 He's a guy like, and his peak, like Kepka, his, his preferred golf courses just planet Earth. But, you know, I don't put him right now in that any given week, if DJ's got it turned on, you know, he can do whatever he wants with a golf ball and his force to be reckoned with. So, um, interesting to see what the wind draw is for, for DJ and some of those other power players. It's a great point.
Starting point is 00:46:06 I can't get out of my head. Again, I'm going to refer to the U.S. Open. He was kind of right there. are in an interesting place as he entered the final round at the open of somebody that could go out kind of on the early side potentially and make a little bit of noise. And he kind of scuffled a little bit and then got to the fourth hole. And for whatever reason, I don't know if it was him or it was his brother. But he put driver in his hand and tried to hit driver on four at Pebble,
Starting point is 00:46:42 beach, which, you know, nobody did with any success all week long. And he promptly launched it right into the, into the Monterey Bay. And that was really the end of his Pebble Beach experience. He ended up shooting three over on Sunday. And he was completely out of it. But it was that double bogey. And it's just this, this persistent, at least on the on the outside looking in, persistent phenomena of sort of having an opportunity to do something and then decision making kind of getting in the way, you know, the 16th hole at the PGA championship. He was kind of in between clubs. He hit the, he hit one over the green. He chipped and then they misread the putt. Um, there's just a something going on there that I can't, you know, have full confidence in DJ at the moment.
Starting point is 00:47:35 That was surprising at Pubble Beach, too, considering just, you know, he's had a ton of success there throughout his career. It's not like he's, you know, remotely unfamiliar with the golfers. The last 10 years, you know, at that pro-am, he's been consistently one of the best players there. It's one of the couple of times. Of course, nearly one the U.S. open there in 2010. You know, I think your point about, you know, getting in, he's in a position to win and made decision-making gets in the way. I think that's a testament to how consistently good he is, because we're always seeing him in a position to succeed. You know, it's really tough to get to that point, And to get to that point enough times
Starting point is 00:48:08 to where you actually can develop the opinion that, man, he's always right there. It's kind of the way I feel sometimes about how people talk about Jordan's feet spudding is that they, oh man, Jordan's feet can't make a six footer for birdie to save his life. But you know what?
Starting point is 00:48:23 He's also on TV for every shot he is and he's putting a lot of iron to six feet to try to make birdie. So I think, and now that's not the whole truth, obviously, with speed. I just think that sometimes that can impact his perception and maybe,
Starting point is 00:48:36 maybe that's part of what we think of with DJ. We're like, man, this guy snake bit and he's always, whether it's you know, whistling straights back in the day at the PGA or even when he won at Oakmont with the weird rules thing, we're like, this guy's always, you know, Chambers Bay on the last poll, he's always kind of getting
Starting point is 00:48:52 his own way, but the truth is he's playing great enough golf to constantly put himself in a position to contend and maybe win these big championships. So, I mean, but he's already a Hall of Famer. You know, it's amazing he doesn't have more than one major championship. but he gets a he gets I'm telling you he gets an easy win draw he gets a good break here
Starting point is 00:49:11 first two rounds he's getting right there again all right well I'll put a little top 10 on them and and then just you know so I have a little bit of a DJ covered off there I don't want to get him to go out and get hot and feel like a dummy sitting on the the sidelines so we'll go and do a little top 10. But let's let's hit some of the, like, um, second tier names. Uh, and I don't, I don't mean any disrespect. I'm just going sort of by the way the odds are organized here. Um, for let's, let's just dispense with the F boys kind of, uh, right away. I, I, here's how I rank Fleetwood, Fowler and Fee now. It's Fleetwood, Fowler, and Fee now. Is that the way you have them ranked as well? Or do you like, is there something?
Starting point is 00:49:58 him about Ricky or Tony that you like here. You know, Tommy's been really great in the U.S. Open of the last few years, obviously, nearly winning it a couple of times. You know, that incredible 63 he had as Chinatok. But as far as the other three major championships, he really hasn't been nearly as good as he has in the U.S. Open. He's 300 par since 2017 in the U.S. Open, which is, you know, anything around par, better than PARs a great score there.
Starting point is 00:50:22 But he's 12 over par in the other three majors combined. I will say that at the Open last year, he had his best finish, finished tied for 12, seems to be kind of, you know, getting better in the open over the last couple of years. He's got a pretty good links record, as you might expect, for a guy from, you know, Southport, England. He's a good links player. I might put him right behind Ricky if I've got a rank for three guys. Oh. Ricky.
Starting point is 00:50:47 Yeah, you know, and Ricky is a fun story this week, I think, going in just because, you know, it feels like it would be a great story for golf if he won to finally break through. He's such a popular guy. like, it obviously, you know, knocked on the doors a billion times in majors. You know, he hasn't really contended in the open since he finished second to Lori back at 14. But if he's, he like the opposite for DJ or for Fina for me, if the wind picks up, Ricky Fowler is an awesome bad weather player. Remember maybe his best shot to win the open came in 2011 at Royal State Georgia's where the last round especially, I just remember it was just a mess.
Starting point is 00:51:23 You know, some of his stats, his metrics are a little bit down this season. he's not hitting as many fairways as he has in years past, which bothered me, especially going to this course. His strokes game approaches down a little bit, but he's a really good links player. He's good in bad weather. He's good at grinding out, grinding out pars. Ricky Singh has always just avoiding the big number. And as he's gotten older, he's gotten better at that.
Starting point is 00:51:44 But if he can do that, you know, I wouldn't be surprised to him play really well. One thing about Tony C now that just be cross off the F boys here that might surprise you, over the last 10 years of everybody to play at least 12 rounds, in the open. Tony Fienow is second and scoring average. The only guy he's trailing is Jordan Spee in that span. Played well last year. Yeah. Played well last, you don't think that with Tony
Starting point is 00:52:06 Fienow, especially the kind of how player he is. It's not kind of doesn't fit, but it's true. He's second scoring average over the last 10 years among all players play at least 12 rounds. Speed is the only guy he's behind. So the thing about Finaw, he's missed three of his last
Starting point is 00:52:22 four cuts on the PJ tour. He's not playing as well as he was, you know, this time last year, U.S. Open last year when he played well, the open, obviously, his game just not in the same spot. So I was still, I put, despite that fact, I just told you, just recent form, it tends to push me. Yeah, I like the one thing, I'm going to sprinkle something on Ricky. I'm not sure. Top 20, you won't get good odds for him, but maybe I'll put something on him to top 10. He does have a win on tour this year. So he does fit that, that important metric and he has played competitive golf in between the you know the u.s open and this one he opened up with that incendiary 66 at pebble and then immediately follow that up with a 77 um which was like
Starting point is 00:53:13 you know what what that what's going on here rickie uh because you know we got so excited after thursday but you know i i am one for a storyline i like what you're selling there i'll sprinkle a little on Ricky. And you're right, it's nice to have a bad weather hedge out there and let that's a nice segue. Few other guys that I like that feel like they could all sort of play into that bad weather hedge. One of them is Mark Leishman. How do you, how do you like Brother Leishman? Yeah, Leishman is an interesting pick.
Starting point is 00:53:46 And I kind of had him circled with somebody who, you know, a little bit further down on the list, is somebody I was interested in. Of course, you're nearly when he opened a few years ago was in that playoff at St. Andrews with Zach Johnson-Lew-Stayson. He's another guy. He's kind of like a diet Kepka, you know, where he...
Starting point is 00:54:03 Diet Kepka, I like it. Ratchets his game up in big events. Now, he's obviously not the same kind of power player that Brooks is. But, you know, he's a guy who, you know, he's not a consistent winner. You're in, year on the computer. He's won a playoff event.
Starting point is 00:54:19 He won in Texas a few years ago. You know, he's got a head. handful of wins on the PGA tour, but he just seems to dial his game up in these big championship. His kind of course management style fits well for, he's got some good links history. So, yeah, if you don't a little bit further down the list, he's somebody I like. There's a one guy I like who's further down the list. He's a European player who's a veteran who I think is really interesting.
Starting point is 00:54:45 That's Raffa Cabrera-Bayo. Okay, sure. Three straight top, three, yeah, three straight top tens on the European tour coming in this week. you won the Scott Shoe Open a couple of years ago and then followed up with a tie for fourth at the open the following week.
Starting point is 00:54:59 He also fits that kind of experience paying off mold that I talked about earlier. You know, the average age, winner at the open the last eight years is age 36. It's five years older than the other open. I think that speaks to,
Starting point is 00:55:11 you know, first of all, it's not a bomb and gouge type situation. We know that. So young guys have hit it a mile not going to have an advantage per se when you get to an open championship most of the time.
Starting point is 00:55:22 And the experience, the managing your situation, knowing when to go for it, knowing where to miss, where to lay back. You know, I think that there's something to be said about experience. I don't know, like, I've kind of knew Cabrera Bayo as like a European-type version of what Gary Woodland is, you know, going into the U.S. Open. I know we'll look at Woodland completely differently now that he's broke through with a major win. But for years, Cabrera-Beyo's guy, tons of top 10, not a lot of wins, kind of like Gary Woodland, has got close in major championships, but isn't particularly. consistently contending in them, has some big moments, really physically gifted,
Starting point is 00:55:57 just like Woodland is. I don't know. When I see him, I was looking through him, I kind of get the same kind of feeling as when I would think about Gary Woodland going into, let's say,
Starting point is 00:56:05 three months ago, the way I thought about Gary Woodland. That's kind of how I feel about Cabrabeo. We know he's comfortable at Port Rush with his tied second back in 2012, even though the golf course is different now. You know, there's still something,
Starting point is 00:56:19 you know, some positive vibes. to take from that. I'm going to play RCB. You know, I have to construct one of my massive eight-way make-the-cut parlayes. He's definitely one of the names that I'm going to include. I love the recent form of him. So help me. Let's just go ahead and pivot on over. Now, actually, before we do that, we haven't given enough love to Henrik Stenson. I feel like if we're talking links golf and a guy that's in form and a guy that fits a lot of the metrics we've been talking about. We've got to include a quick hit on Stenson for the purposes of how people are
Starting point is 00:56:59 constructing lineups this week. Do you agree with that? He is the first guy I put on my team when I made my draft team's lineup. First guy, because of how good he is at Link's golf, the value to get relative to his recent performance, played really well. Scott Shopen last week, you know, obviously can win a play in an open championship. chuffed 20 under at Royal Trune. I mean, anybody who can do that.
Starting point is 00:57:23 He's finally healthy again. Swing looks great. Great recent form. I talked about how good he is in Link's golf over the last decade or so. He's about the best in the world. He, no joke, when I made my,
Starting point is 00:57:37 six-player fantasy team, first guy I picked. So that's about as strong a testament as I can give. I don't know if he's going to win this week, you know, but as far as somebody who is a solid pick who's going to play well, I don't know how he can avoid Hendrick system.
Starting point is 00:57:54 Yeah, everybody, bill your lineups off of Henrik. This is, if we don't give out locks here on Fairway Rowland, but Henrik at this event is, we'll call him as near to a lock as you can get. Now, let's get a little speculative. And I want to, as always, you're very indulgent. You give us lots of time here on Fairway Rowland. But I want to hit on a couple, two, three names.
Starting point is 00:58:18 that are not names that the golfing public will have heard, but that guys that might have a decent performance, if you're rounding out a DFS lineup, or if you're looking to do a top 20, get, you know, a decent return, 5 to 1, 6 to 1 kind of odds on a top 20. What are a couple of names that you have circled that are not traditional U.S. PGA tour household names?
Starting point is 00:58:45 There's one kid who's extremely talented, he's very young, he's making his open baby ship, but he's a guy who you're going to hear a lot about over the next five or six years. He was Joaquin Neiman from Chile. Extremely talented young player. Three top tens in his last four starts on the PGA tour. He nearly won
Starting point is 00:59:06 on the PNUnual Memorial last year as a teenager. He's not going to be phased by the big stage. I will, it being his first open, makes me a little wary. You know, you don't know how he's going to react. I'm not sure how much he's played in that part of the world. period, let alone in an open championship. But he's extremely talented, and he's going to be way down on guys' boards.
Starting point is 00:59:26 And I'll give you another guy who, course history and style and, you know, the past, his past success, lends him to look at him as someone who's great value. Zach Johnson has had a terrible feat.
Starting point is 00:59:42 By his standard, he's off. He's out of the top, I think he's out of the top 100 in the world now. You know, but he has been, one of the best players at the open over the last decade. If I was to ask, who do you think has the most
Starting point is 00:59:56 round of 67 or better at the open this decade? The answer is Zach Johnson. And it's buying like two or three. Exactly. Like that's kind of the sneaky. I know he won at St. Andrews. Kind of came out of nowhere and then he fell off.
Starting point is 01:00:12 He wasn't really, you know, a factor in major championships immediately after that. But he has been really good at the open. This is a, like, it's a core. course, look, it's not colonial John Deere in the previous or venues where distance isn't a factor. In that sense, the length golf brings the field together, and it makes distance not as relevant. A guy who doesn't hit it as far like Zach, but he's 20 under par in the open the last five years.
Starting point is 01:00:35 That's fourth best in that span. I gave you the rounds of 67 statistic. He's tied for fifth most birdies at the open the last five years. You can get really good value on Zach John. He's not going to forget how to play link golf when he shows up there. now. He's getting into his mid-40s, week-in, week out on the Pitiator. He's not really that much of a factor at this point in his career. But I don't know, man.
Starting point is 01:00:58 That's a really good value for a guy who played a lot of great open-skinned football. Well, I'll tell you, I saw him at the beginning of the week available as just a top 20 play at plus 600. That's a 6-1 return on a guy with that impeccable. I tell you what I'm going to do, Justin. I'm going to go put something down before this podcast goes up because we can't have once the gambling public gets a hold of Zach Johnson and starts banging at that 6 to 1. It's going to be all the way down to 3 to 1.
Starting point is 01:01:29 Let's both make sure we get get them in with our respective makers. Justin Ray, head of content at the 15th club. If you're not following him on Twitter, you are doing golf life wrong. And if you're not receiving the 15th club newsletter every single day of this major week, then you might as well not even be reading. You might as well not read if you're not getting the 15th club newsletter. As always, my birdie buddy, thank you for coming on. We always appreciate it.
Starting point is 01:02:03 Yeah, I enjoyed it, man. Let's talk to you about golf going into these big championships. Yeah, so let's both get out there, make some tickets, and look for strong return on. investment. Absolutely. That's why we're here. Thanks, buddy. Hi. Thank you. All right. As always, my big thanks to Justin Ray, we'll have to find an event in the FedEx Cup playoffs to bring them back on and have to pick one that folks are actually paying attention to golf again. Before we get to Chris Vernon, my birdie buddies, this episode of Fairway Rowland brought to you by our friends at Destination Kohler in Kohler, Wisconsin,
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Starting point is 01:03:43 Kohler can help arrange a tournament style. experience complete with your own customized rider cup inspired add-ons eagle enthusiasts rounds for this summer are still available and 2020 rounds are open as well time to get rolling to destination color.com to book your golf package today that's destination coler.com now on the tea from USA Chris Vernon. Heyo! Heyo! Oh, time for morning golf. Oh, my God. It's my favorite.
Starting point is 01:04:33 I'll be honest, the Pebble Beach thing was great because in central time, I'm getting to watch it at night. I am for the extremes. I either want the golf early in the morning or I want it in prime time where I can watch it at night. This middle, and now we're becoming spoiled because this middle of the day stuff, you know, we've caught these two majors in a row now where it doesn't mess up your day. Like you can still have a day and watch the golf tournaments. And so then you get back to the regular old tournaments that are in the middle of the day and take up an entire Sunday afternoon.
Starting point is 01:05:14 And now I feel, I don't know, we're getting spoiled again. I love this. I love this. This is, it's no surprise that we get along so well in life, Verno. but obviously I couldn't agree with you more. I'm in not just 100% agreement. I'm in 110% agreement. And how about this, Verno, this season, not only did we have the fantastic U.S.
Starting point is 01:05:37 open on the West Coast giving everybody in the middle of the country and the East Coast prime time viewing opportunities. But we also had the Masters, Sunday of the Masters. Now, this wasn't planned. They didn't want it to go this way. they prefer it to be in the afternoon. But we knocked that sucker out in the morning. We had a champion by 1 o'clock in the afternoon,
Starting point is 01:05:59 and I had my master Sunday all to myself. I mean, I could be a family hero. I wasn't locked up in the den, you know what I mean? That's for sure. And now, as we look towards this one house, I'm going to tell you, I knew we were going to be doing this pod. I was going to be having to make my draft king's picks.
Starting point is 01:06:17 I was going to be having to put in my bets. and my mind is in an absolute pretzel over this. I have talked myself into a million different things, but I need you to clear the first one up. How much do I care about the Ireland thing? And do I think it's an advantage or a disadvantage? Is it an advantage that somebody knows the course extremely well or somebody in the case of Rory is the country's hero?
Starting point is 01:06:47 Like they say, you used to be able to just like, a ticket to this. But this year, you can't buy a ticket. Like, it's sold out cold. And so this is a different deal. David Faradie's talking about this is the biggest sporting event that's ever happened there. And so does the fact that you're going to have to get a million tickets and take care of everybody if you're Rory or in the Brooks case, his caddy, you know, he's, he's already quoted as saying he's got to find 50, 60 tickets. His whole family lived. around there. So is it to your benefit that this is something you know, that this is your home turf, or is it a detriment? And I say that because you remember earlier this year, the Byron Nelson,
Starting point is 01:07:34 and I was like, nobody knows this better than Speeth. That Speeth's going to get back on track. Like, he sucks at the Byron Nelson. And a lot of times, every year he sucks at the Byron Nelson. And I do think it's part of it. It's like, you know, so the next week after this, is going to be the WGC event in Memphis, where I live. And I'm going to be heavily involved in that. And already, I ain't even playing golf. And you're going to be coming in town. And I'm making tea times.
Starting point is 01:08:03 And I'm scheduling this and I'm scheduling that. And people are asking me if I've got tickets. And people are asking me about, are you going to go to the event on Wednesday night? Are you going to go to the event on Thursday night? And it's already hectic for me. And I ain't even doing nothing. I ain't playing. Right?
Starting point is 01:08:19 And so I do know how hectic it gets for these guys. And I do wonder, like, that's, once I answer that question, and that's what I need your help on, then I can figure out what I'm going to do. Do we think it is an advantage that you know the course well, that this is in Ireland, this is the home turf? So in the first place, I think it's right to distinguish between the three dudes. from Northern Ireland who are going to be competing in this Open Championship. Graham McDowell and Darren Clark can both be kind of ambassadors, I think. And honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see something great out of Graham McDowell because he has the benefit of, you know, lesser expectation, right?
Starting point is 01:09:13 his country is not looking to him to go out and win the golf tournament because he doesn't he's not the guy that has two wins this season and leads to the tour in top tens and has you know five I mean four top five finishes in the past five years so I think Darren Clark and Graham McDow both are going to be kind of ambassadors Graham McDowell lives in Port Rush grew up in Port Rush Rory grew up an hour away Darren Clark has been a member of Port Rush his entire life. His son works at the pro shop there right now as we speak. So I think those two guys, I wouldn't be surprised. They're going to be playing, you know, loose, loose and foot loose and fancy free. In terms of like the logistics of dealing with the pressure of, you know, what those guys are
Starting point is 01:10:01 going to be confronted with. It ain't like this thing snuck on them, snuck up on them, Verno. They've known that the Open Championship is going to be in Northern Ireland for at least half a decade, if not longer. And so, you know, getting the tickets and managing like the logistics of family and all that stuff, I honestly think Rory made a point of saying he's not staying at home for this. He's getting put, he's not,
Starting point is 01:10:26 he's doing his usual routine in terms of staying somewhere, a hotel or something. He wants it to feel like tournament golf for him. And being in his own bedroom with his family does not convey that feeling. I believe for sure 100%, 100%, 1,000% without hesitation or reservation, it is absolutely an advantage for guys that have played this track at some point in their lives to be able to pull up, pull up from their memory banks,
Starting point is 01:10:56 from the reserves, the memory reserves, what it's like to walk around this joint. Because the vast majority, vast majority of guys coming to this venue, haven't set foot on it, some of them, including none other than Elder Tiger Woods, until Sunday morning. Like the first time Tiger ever set foot on the property to take a swing was Sunday. Now, the golf course is different that they're playing and competing on this year than anything
Starting point is 01:11:24 that anybody's competed on previously at the professional level in 2012 at the Irish Open. You have some guys play there. Rory played it. He top ten did it. Rafa Cabrera Bayo was on there and Jamie Donaldson won it. But they changed the golf course between 2012. and now the layout that they have. They took two holes from an adjoining course on the property there
Starting point is 01:11:48 and put them on the front nine because they had to build out on the backside that traditional British Open amphitheater. And the old 17 and 18 would not accommodate what they need in terms of the proper look of a finishing kind of a conclusion to the Claret jug. effort here. So in that respect, I think for sure, an advantage to guys who have played it. Rory's shooting 61 here when he was 16 years old. I mean, I would love to be channeling some of that muscle memory a little bit, even though it's different now. On the other hand,
Starting point is 01:12:27 there is no question that the amount of pressure that is on Rory, and I don't have an answer for you on this point, because I can see it two ways. On the one hand, This is by far the biggest sporting event in the history of Northern Ireland. I'm going to go ahead and say it's the biggest event that ever in the history of the country because, you know, there's more people in the world. It's going to be the most eyes on Northern Ireland in the history of the country. It's a tiny country, 1.9 million folks. You mentioned this.
Starting point is 01:13:03 This championship has been sold out for weeks. It's the first time in modern history that the British Open has been sold out every single ticket is spoken for. So the entire country is going to be rooting for their native son. And, you know, it kind of cuts both ways. On the one hand, we have seen Rory in big moments where the pressure's on and the two places that I think, you know, we're trying to draw some analogies to. On the one hand, you know, in the Ryder Cup, which is its own unique animal, but he's been kind of up to the moment. He likes being on the one hand
Starting point is 01:13:41 the villain when he's over here in the U.S. He does the, you know, let me hear you gesture and he loves to interface with the crowd. And then when he's in Europe, he's all about, you know, revving up the crowd, a lot of come on, a lot of Legos, let's go, let's go.
Starting point is 01:13:57 And pumping up the frenzy. So that's a kind of pressure that he seems to respond pretty well to and he responds to both being a hero on a villain. But on the other hand, when it's the pressure that he feels, it seems like he puts on himself, and I'm referring directly to the Masters, which is the tournament that he's, you know, he needs to complete his career grand slam. And he's had within his grasp at least two occasions. And one in very recent memory, he teed off, you know, at the 2018 Masters in the final
Starting point is 01:14:28 two-sum with Patrick Reed. And it was basically a heads-up match. If he could have beat Patrick Reed's ass, he would have won the Masters. And the first thing he did was hit his team ball damn near out of bounds. So not up to the moment when that pressure is coming from himself, but the way I'm going to prefer to think about it, and this dovetails with how I'm going to strategize some of my wagering this week, Bruno, is I'm going to I'm going to subscribe to the idea that the sheer will of the country, every single person rooting for him, every single person wanting the very best for every single thing. And everybody, every single shot is going to be so,
Starting point is 01:15:09 every single good shot is going to be met with such a unanimous support. I think that's going to help Rory. So if I'm going to do 51-49 that it's going to be helpful to Rory. And I'm betting Rory to win. I'm betting him to top five. I'm betting them to top 10. Okay. Well, here's the other side of this.
Starting point is 01:15:29 As if the guy needed any help whatsoever, Brooks Kepka, we know, has this caddy, Ricky Elliott, who is a caddy. He grew up there being a caddy and is a member there. So alongside the guy who at this point, it's like, if you don't bank on Brooks Kepka, what are we doing? Since the beginning of 07, he has, in majors, the best scored a par by like almost 40 friggin strokes. most rounds in the 60s, most birdies and eagles, most rounds where he's led, most rounds in the top 10. There's been four majors since Karnoosti. Two players have beaten him.
Starting point is 01:16:14 Two. That's my favorite stat that I saw of all the Kepka stats. That's my number one favorite. Well, look, I didn't mean to leave the impression, Verno, that we're going to like ignore Brooks Kepka. I'm doing the same thing. I'm betting him to win, I'm betting them to top five, and I'm betting them to top 10. I mean, what's the scenario under which you leave out either one of those dudes? Just cover your action.
Starting point is 01:16:38 This is why, look, I'm getting there. I'm getting there. So if you remember- I'm just saying theory-wise, I'm not yelling to you. I just mean, you know, as a strategy. Because we went with this. Do you remember when we were talking about the U.S. Open? And it was Brooks Kepka plus one and a half against Rory McElroy.
Starting point is 01:16:56 And it was like, what is the amount of money we could steal from everyone close to us, family members, et cetera, to put on this? Well, I go and look at the tournament matchups. I cannot fathom that you can get even odds on Brooks Kepka against Rory McElroy. But you can get even odds on Brooks Kepka versus Rory McElroy right now with. to me is like, it's staring me in the face. And so, yes, you're saying, hey, we don't have to choose. We can go with both of them. In fact, House, it's even with Brooks plus one and a half strokes. The odds are better than they were. I mean, in what world am I that I can get Brooks kept the plus one and a half strokes at even money against Rory McElroy. But,
Starting point is 01:17:56 now you spent 15 minutes convincing me a frigging Rory McElroyce. Now what? Do I press send or not? You got to press send because look, those odds are too good. I'm looking at them right now on the money line. Just heads up. Brooks Kepka's plus 125. And I just think the overwhelming weight of evidence with Brooks Kepka in the majors,
Starting point is 01:18:18 you have to take advantage of getting plus odds when he only has to beat one person. So you absolutely, you hit send getting your one of, and half strokes. I'm going to hit send on this money line bet, too. Believe me. Hey, when I tell you that my mind is in a pretzel, it's because I look at all those stats. I look at, you know, Gary Woodland and Tiger, the only ones that have beaten the guy in a major in the last four. That being said, you look at all the odd, or you look at what's happened in this particular tournament. Now, not at this particular course, but you have established, and I would agree with you, that it's probably an advantage for Roy's.
Starting point is 01:18:56 Okay. Okay. It's not even being played in Ireland in these other years. And in the last five, he's got the best score. He's 32 under in the last five opens. And he missed one of them to injury. So it's like, now you see my problem with this, right? Do I do I fade both of these guys? Do I bank on both of these guys? Do I, who do I think? between the two of them. Like, okay, so one of them, it feels like either way. And so that's why I'm worried that it might just come to a stay away. Because on one hand, if I bet Kepka, it's like, I feel like that guy that's at the top of the mountain in the Princess Bride, right, that's doing the never play mind games with a Sicilian, never have a land war in Asia, right? And he's switching the cups.
Starting point is 01:19:53 I can't choose that cup because, but I'm saying either way, if Rory wins it, it's like, yeah, what the hell was I thinking? The guy's in his frigging home country. He plays amazing in this tournament. What's wrong with me? If I bet against Kepka, it's like, what's my problem? This guy wins every frigging major or he's right there at the end. And so this feels like the big choice to make because, I mean, we can. How about this?
Starting point is 01:20:24 How about we just take Kepka. I'll feel good. He's minus 115 against Dustin Johnson. How about I just slam that and I leave the Rory stuff to the side in case he's amazing? How about I just do that? We'll just fade DJ and watch that son of a bitch go 50 under. Well, that's, you know, I had Justin Ray on earlier on this show. And I also went on Cousin Sal's against all odds.
Starting point is 01:20:52 and I can't remember which one of the shows I said that DJ is the guy that I'm going to fade in this one, which means DJ becomes the lock of the century. I mean, just right now, somebody out there, just take 50 bucks and put it on DJ because he's going to go nuts. Now, the problem with DJ is he's great in the first three rounds and terrible in the last round. Speaking of Justin Ray, in the 15th Club newsletter that came out yesterday, Tuesday, the 16th, He had a nugget about DJ. DJ is 22 under through the first three rounds and 20 over in the final round of the British Open since 2010. So who knows?
Starting point is 01:21:35 Maybe he just gets sick of Guinness. I have no idea what the hell to explain that poor Sunday performance out of DJ. But, you know, speaking of matchups and things to bang, and let's just go ahead and jump into it. we're going to do this week in Tiger Woods. Tiger, Tiger, Tiger. Right now, because I haven't seen or heard one thing that makes me feel good about Tiger Woods this week, Bruno. You talked about Justin Ray. I read one of his previews earlier in the week, and he had a stat in there that it was like frigging,
Starting point is 01:22:18 and he may have mentioned this on the show, obviously I haven't got to hear it yet, that like the only guy that has won. the British who hadn't played between the U.S. Open and the British is like Johnny Miller in the 70s. And I was like, Jesus. Right, right, exactly. Like, I mean, so how do I know? How do I have any idea? That's obviously, there's a historical reference point for this. But we also know that Tiger has played extremely well this year. He has not played a ton of tournaments, but in the in the aggregate, he has played extremely well. And it's just a year ago, we're in this very tournament. And that was like one of the glimpses like, hey, now, this may turn around.
Starting point is 01:23:08 Obviously, we got that, and then we got the Bel Rive, and then we got the very end of the year. But he had the lead. He had the lead in the British Open. And we're thinking to ourselves like, hey, now, like, we might be back on the right track with this tiger thing. And so we know he has played well in this particular tournament last time out, but there is just no way to know what kind of form he is in. We didn't even get to see him hit shots in the U.S. Open at Pebble because we were watching all of the leaders, but he played great, you know, that last day and made a little charge, saved himself after starting slow.
Starting point is 01:23:51 You're absolutely right. On the back nine especially, I think he had at least three birdies, maybe four birdies. Here's the problem I have with Tiger. The lasting sort of image that I have in my head is what happened at the PGA championship. Now, radically different circumstances in terms of he's had more time to, you know, sort of recover post-US Open and the lead up to this British Open. but his preparation felt rushed for the PGA championship, and then he ended up getting sick and missing one of the days of practice that he needed. But I just, this idea of him showing up on Sunday at a venue like this. Now, I'm sure he's taking advantage of all of the local knowledge and all of the sort of, you know, anybody that he can bring in.
Starting point is 01:24:48 I mean, the story of him trying to get Brooks to play around with him, which I think would have had the effect of also Brooks's caddy would have been out there. And Brooks would have just flat out, you know, ghosting him. Boy, that is some high level shit out of Brooks Kepka. But, you know, Tiger's looking for opportunities to try and learn about this venue. And I'm sure he's been talking to a lot of people since Sunday. But it does, you know, it doesn't feel like enough time. Like if he was really serious, he would have done something like Henrik Stenson,
Starting point is 01:25:17 who didn't play in one of his traditional tournaments. didn't go to Germany and play at the BMW, which is a, you know, kind of a mid-June thing or later in June after the U.S. Open. Stenson has that on his schedule. He skipped it this year. And what he did instead was go to Port Rush and play, you know, three or four days of port rush because he wanted to get acclimated. He wanted to see what it was like.
Starting point is 01:25:39 He wanted that turf under his feet. Tiger shows up on Sunday and then has a press conference yesterday, Tuesday, midday, saying, well, I'm not quite there yet. I need to, I want, I need one more good day on the range. Like, bro, this is a major. This is the last major of the season. I don't want to hear about one more good range day. I don't want to hear about I'm not quite there yet.
Starting point is 01:26:01 So, Berno, I'm just going to confess to you. I'm looking at these matchups. Brooks Kebke is minus 1.45 heads up against Tiger. Tell me the scenario under which Tiger beats Brooks Kevka, Brooks Kevka at this event. He hits 14 of 18 fairways. Well, Brooks might do the same thing. I understand, but I mean, because if Tiger gets on one of these streaks where his driver is not failing him and he can stay in the fairway, he gives himself his chance because the iron plays good. And then you feel like he is the kind of creative guy that, you know, they always say in these particular types of tournaments with the links courses that.
Starting point is 01:26:48 You know, you put until you cannot put. And then you have to chip. And I feel like he's got that kind of creativity where he could pull that off. And so it's honestly, it's a matter. When he hits the ball off the tee, is he in the shit or not? And at Beth Page, he was in the shit the whole time. He just couldn't stay out. He couldn't stay out of it.
Starting point is 01:27:12 And when he's not, when he's putting the ball in the fairway, and now he can play these irons into the green, he gives himself a chance. The other thing is I like him out of bunkers, you know. So I don't think that that, like, I don't feel like him going into the bunker is nearly as punitive as some other guys. Hell half the time, I feel like he's going to make it out of the damn bunker. Well, you're not going to get me to say anything bad about Tiger with the creativity point. It's an excellent observation.
Starting point is 01:27:44 I just think that's the thing. If the guy's in the fairway, if he's got playable second shots, he's going to be their house. End of the story. I see no scenario where Tiger Woods has an extremely accurate weekend slash week off the tee and plays badly. I just, I refuse to believe it. So that means he's leaving driver in the bag. Maybe even Joey Lakov is going to break the driver overnight tonight and tomorrow. Be like, oh, sorry, buddy.
Starting point is 01:28:14 Here's the two-hour. has the two iron in the bag, which suggests a lot of stingers. We've seen him with that two iron in previous open championships. Definitely at St. Andrews, I can think of it. And the stinger is, is a beautiful shot. I'm just concerned overall about the sort of, he was waking up at one in the morning at home and then he shot a video. Nike pointed out like he's getting ready. It's like, dude, if you're getting ready, you'd be in Ireland right now. You'd be waking up. It would be one of the morning on the East Coast in the U.S., but you would be waking up and showing us, you being in a little B&B out there in County Antrick or whatever is called.
Starting point is 01:28:52 The other thing that I'm concerned about is going to be, it's cool. You know, there'll be, the forecast looks like they might be bumping into the 60s, but those, that's going to be later in the day. Like when he's teeing off in the morning, I think it's tomorrow. It's pretty early. He's got an early tea time. the the it's going to be in the in in the 50s at best which is right very similar to the weather conditions at beth page so i'm just hitting the caution breaks a little bit i'm with you in terms of
Starting point is 01:29:22 how about this how about we just mess with tiger on the weekend if we get to for if we if we like the way he looks tomorrow he looks to be in the form if he's hitting fairways then we mess with tiger going into the weekend we can mess with them on uh the plus numbers we can mess with them with the matchups round by round, but we need to see it first. I'm fine with wait and see. We just don't even mess with Tiger until then. We're going to do Show Me Tiger. I like it. Okay. Well, look, Verno, speaking of Show Me, we're at the moment. This is the time for the Callaway Epic Flash pick of the week. It is Wednesday, midday. We're trying to give out winners. We want folks in there with their DFS lineups, their fantasy, their one and dones.
Starting point is 01:30:08 and their betting cards to try and do something heroic or trying to give out something heroic to everybody. The same way the Epic Flash driver by Callaway has been heroic all season long continues to be the most played driver with the most driver wins of any brand, most worldwide tour wins of any driver brand in 2019. The Callaway Epic Flash deploys innovative flash-based technology. created by using artificial intelligence and machine learning to promote faster ball speeds. All right, Verno, we've batted around a little bit. I understand we need a strategy for dealing with Rory and Brooks, so I don't expect either one of those guys to be your pick. And I think we're going to, we just said we're going to wait and see with Tiger.
Starting point is 01:31:01 Is there a guy out there you've got your eye on for your pick? Okay, here's what I'm going to do. And in fact, I'm going to let you talk me out of any of these. All right, number one, DJ's only finished better than 49th, like once in the last four years. So we're slamming Kepka over DJ. That's done. Love that. That's done.
Starting point is 01:31:22 Kepka over DJ minus 1.15 as the matchup for the tournament is done. The other ones are, and I will tell you that I am in one of those draft Kings leagues. I'm in four majors. I'm in every damn tournament you can have. But for the purposes of draft kings, you know that these guys cost an in an ornate amount of money to mess with all of the highly priced guys, the Rory's and the...
Starting point is 01:31:48 So, and I've gotten burned big time going with them and then trying to figure out, and then I'm just praying for my small money guys to make cuts. So I went with the different strategy this week, and I'm going to give you the opportunity. If you want to talk me out of one of these guys, you can. But what I'm going to do is I'm going to have these six and then I looked up all their numbers and they fluctuate between plus 2,000 on the money line to
Starting point is 01:32:13 plus 5,500. Yeah, sure. Okay. So, and I just did this with my heart. I just went through one time, picked them, picked them, kind of kept an eye on how much money I had left. And this was my first draft and I did it early in the week. And I have not changed it yet.
Starting point is 01:32:32 I was waiting to do the pod. All right. I've got Zander Schauliffe. He has now, over the course of the past five out of the last 10, he's been sixth or better. He was a runner-up Masters. He's third at U.S. Open. The guy is, he's a major player, and I trust him. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:32:53 So, and, you know, he's also proved to us that he can play at a variety of different types of venues and have success. Because he was great at Pebble Beach, and he was great at Cardinal Beach. and he was great at Carnusti last year, kind of different kind of setups. All right, these are the guys I'm rocking with. Zander, Henrik Stenson, Louis Uthusin, same way, great major player. I kind of trust him.
Starting point is 01:33:21 Gary Woodland, for whatever reason, like, I mean, he played unbelievable at that U.S. Open, and he was the guy that had all the pressure, and he held off Brooks, and I'm a believer. And I think his number is pretty high, considering a guy that the last time out played like an absolute boss. Woodland, and then the two longer ones are, I've read so much this week and listened to so much this week that I have been convinced. And I will blame the golf intelligentsia if they're wrong about this. But Raffa Cabella Bello was on everybody's lists as someone they liked this week.
Starting point is 01:33:59 And then Leishman, who hits the ball low. And I think can, you know, if the wind gets up, the element, you know that Mark Leishman, he's in a safe spot because his ball's not going to be flying everywhere. So are there any of those you want to talk me out of? Zander Stenson, Woodland, Bello, Uthusin, Leishman. The only one that I have any concern with whatsoever. And he has a very good record at the Open Championship. I believe he's made the cut every single time. So this counsels against my concern.
Starting point is 01:34:35 The only guy I'm concerned about on your list is Gary Woodland. Because his missed cut after the U.S. Open was such a poor showing, you know, at a venue that was supposed to be a birdie fest venue. And he couldn't keep up with the boys and he was out of sorts the entire time. Now, again, he's made the cut every single time. We're back at the next major. but I'm concerned there had been a trend where the guy that won the U.S. Open the next time that he played finished inside the top 20 on some incredible number of times like six out of eight or something or five out of six. And he went out and just flat out put out a stinker and missed the cut. my concern would be that whatever the after effects of the U.S. Open are on him,
Starting point is 01:35:30 that he's not all the way sort of those out. Now, he does have the benefit of having, you know, the time between the U.S. Open and the Open Championship is the traditional amount of time, you know, even with the condensed schedule. And by the way, I want to do a quick thing. I'm fading Justin Rose again. I mean, I know he had a nice runner-up finish. It was his best finish last year at Carnusti, a tide for second.
Starting point is 01:35:56 And it was his best finish since as a teenager. Don't. But help me understand why that dude would go out to a press conference yesterday and say, I don't like the schedule. I don't like the amount of preparation that it affords us. Hey, buddy. Hey, Justin Rose. Let me remind you of this little fact, buddy.
Starting point is 01:36:16 The Masters was the first major of the year. It happened at the exact same time on the calendar. as it occurs every year since 1934, and you sucked. You had every opportunity to prepare yourself the way you're accustomed to with all the time that you won, and you went out there and missed the cut, bro. So I don't want to hear anything about the schedule or any of this stuff about, you know, I don't like it doesn't afford enough time for preparation. You had all the time in the world to prepare for the master's and you stunk it up,
Starting point is 01:36:46 homie. Let me tell you something. All right, House. So don't bring his name. up around me. Not involved with this tournament. I told you I'm in one of those, it was one of the big money ones,
Starting point is 01:37:01 like the four majors or whatever it is, right? So the guy that I've got to worry about in that, the guy that I've got to beat last year, he's got rows. We're on Friday. I'm like, this guy is effed. He made that cut on like the last hole. And then got friggin' second in the tournament.
Starting point is 01:37:22 I almost jumped off my house. You were talking about the Open Championship last year. This is last year. Go look. He made the cut by a stroke. He's missing the cut all the way to the end of Friday. He barely makes it. He barely makes it.
Starting point is 01:37:39 And then Saturday goes out and shoots a 64 and then goes bananas again on Sunday. Next thing I know, he's got second place in the tournament. And obviously the payout, first second, whatever. He ends up going from not playing on the tournament. weekend to getting second in the freaking tournament. And of course, I lost everything. And I was like, I hate, I hate him. Just like, just like DJ. Just like our, our, you know, instinct to fade DJ. Here we are, Fade and Rose. And I bet DJ and Rose both have great tournaments. So me, that's just how. All right. So here, if I, those are the guys I'm messing with. I'll have a
Starting point is 01:38:17 little bit on all those. I'll slam Kepko over DJ. But the one that I told you this, right after the U.S. Open, I told you that the PGA Championship, I had, I believe it was like 16th or 17th or better, was Zander Shafley. He missed that by one place. And somebody could go back and look it up. I can't remember what place it was. Whatever place he got, I had the place right above it and lost. And so I said, I'm done with him because he bogeed every hole down the stretch, every hole. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:38:46 And then blew it for me. And I said, I'm done with them. I'm done with you, Zander. And then he, I told you, it's like an ex-girlfriend that you have a, it's a terrible breakup. But then she kind of starts winning you back. You have an unbelievable night. And that was the U.S. Open. Because he wrote me back in and I rolled with him again.
Starting point is 01:39:07 And it paid off in an extraordinary way when he got third. And so I'm back with, I'm back with him. I'm back with Xander. I'm trying to make it work. And so that's who I'm rocking. with. Zander Schaffer. I like it. You're not going to get any argument out of me with Zander. I'm with you. The ex-girlfriend, she was looking good on Sunday at the U.S. Open. Boy, does she look good. That's a tough one to stay away from. So I like that a lot. I have one play that I'm going to give out.
Starting point is 01:39:41 This is going to be, and I hate to do it. It works against, you know, everything I like in terms of as a fan. just no scenario under which there's only one tournament matchup featuring this guy because I play it every way I could otherwise. Phil Mickelson, he's only featured in a single tournament matchup because he's at 100 to 1 to win this thing. And he is out all week long here at this tournament talking about this diet. He went on, this crash diet. He does look. Now, I was skeptical. I continued to be skeptical. skeptical about all of it. But he's,
Starting point is 01:40:23 he's, what looked like to be a tongue and cheek where he shot one of these videos and said, I'm trying to do a hard reset and I'm trying to clean up some things. He has, I will say in the, in the footage I saw last night, looked a little bit thinner.
Starting point is 01:40:36 He does not look well is what I'm going to say, Verno. There's only one matchup. It's Brandt Snetker at minus 140, up against Phil Mickelson. I don't, I mean, Phil Mickelson's missed the cut in like six of his last eight events.
Starting point is 01:40:49 I think his best finish, his best finish was tied for 50 second at the U.S. Open. So I don't like one thing that I've heard him say. I don't like the way he looks. He seems like he's there out of a sense of obligation and duty and wanting to participate. But he has no aspiration, no ambition to try and win the thing. And if Phil, I think we know this about him. If he's over a frame of mind to not win, then I think. he's going home Friday night.
Starting point is 01:41:21 So that's going to be my epic flash pick the week. Brandt Snetiker minus 140 heads up against Phil Mickelson. I don't like one thing I've seen or heard out of Phil. All right. And the last thing, we have to put something on Kepka plus 900. Like if we have any dignity, if we have any dignity, like I feel like he should be even odds at this point. You mean to win the tournament? Yeah, there's at least something we got to put on Kepka plus 900.
Starting point is 01:41:49 It's just, it feels like you get, you're getting nine to one on a guy who friggin' wins every he's either getting first or second. Yeah, I think I have them at 11. I think I got them all the way up to 11 here. Yeah, I'm going to bet, I'm going to bet both him and Rory. And I'm going to bet him to top five and top 10 too. I mean, you know, I just want to have that that all covered. All right, Verno, you mentioned it.
Starting point is 01:42:13 We're going to be together for the recap of this Open Championship. We're actually going to watch Sunday together. in Memphis, Tennessee, I'm humbled and honored to be coming down there from my first ever trip to Memphis. And then we're going to be together for a few days to cover the beginning of the week of the WGC event. I think it's called the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational. Is that what it's called now? It is. It is. Top 50 players in the world. You're going to love it. You're going to love it. I cannot wait for you to get here. So we'll have the Claret Jog will be raised. and then you and I'll go out and stick a peg in the ground and try and do our own version of some kind of golf out there.
Starting point is 01:42:54 Of course, my man. I'll see you. I guess we'll be together Saturday or Sunday for that British Open. That'd be great. You got it. Thanks, Verno. Thanks, out. All right, my power saving pals, there you have it.
Starting point is 01:43:06 I hope everybody has great return on investment from all these angles, these considerations, these observations, these observations we shared with you. As Verneau and I just mentioned, we are going to be together. in Memphis, Tennessee, where you're going to sit down and recap this Open Championship. As soon as it finishes Sunday afternoon, we'll have the show up for your own consideration. Hopefully your enjoyment as you pat your wallet, pat your pocketbook and feel it growing larger. Until then, my friends, hit us straight out there.

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