Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Draft Guides with Dane Brugler and Eliot Crist

Episode Date: April 22, 2021

Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) welcomes in Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) and Eliot Crist (@EliotCrist) for a double-guest episode previewing the NFL Draft. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Ladies and gentlemen, you are listening to the Fantasy Points podcast. I'm your host, Scott Barrett. Today is a two-part episode. First on, we have the great Dane Bruegler. of the athletic and then followed by my good close personal friend, Elliot Christ of Ftn Fantasy.

With Elliot, we're going to be breaking down the 2021 NFL draft. We're going to do a little mock. We're going to talk about the best ways to bet the NFL draft. The podcast with Dane Bruegler was unfortunately very short. Dane is one of my idols in this industry. He does is phenomenal, phenomenal work inside the podcast. I talk about it like Quinn Tarantino watching a Martin Scorsese film, just sitting back and just like admiring the genius that went into this. That's Dane Brugler put out the beast, a truly beastly 2021 NFL draft guide. That's really the industry standard. It's phenomenal. He's one of the most polished podcast guest I've ever seen and, you know, hear him on the radio as well or in ESPN sound clips,

things like that. I was super, super excited to have him on, really a little nervous, too. And unfortunately, we ran into some technical difficulties that I believe were on my end. We had a, he only had 30 minutes from me. He told me before the show, he did like 15 radio interviews plus podcast today alone. So he was short on time to begin with. And then there was just an immense number of technical difficulties. I'm not sure why.

So he had to repeat what he said multiple times. He would get cut off. He would go offline. I'd have to send him a different link. And then Ben, behind the scenes, had to splice everything together. It was, you know, total amateur hour on my part. But big thank you to Dane Brugler, you know, for bearing with me and for handling it like a champ. So I only got to ask like four of the 15 questions I was hoping for, but never really stood a realistic chance of asking anyway.

But hopefully Ben was able to splice that all together to make it sound good. Did get a few key questions in. And then after that again, in part two, we're going to have Elliott Christ on. Just a quick word from your sponsor. And then we'll get into the things with Dane. And then right after that, part two with Elliot Christ. Support for Fantasy Points is brought to you by Manscaped, who is the best in men's below-the-waist grooming. Manscaped offers precision-engineered tools for your family jewels.

Be obsessed over their technology developments to provide you the best tools for your grooming experience. Manscape is trusted by over 2 million men worldwide. We have an exclusive offer for our listeners 20% off plus free shipping with the promo code FP2021. at manscape.com. One more time, that's promo code FP 2021. And that's it, guys. Let's get into the good stuff. Dane, thank you so much for coming on. Let's just get right into this. I know you're shrap for time. So first question, the beast, your draft guide, is absolutely insane. 636,000, 267,000 pages, 262,000 words, 13 positions. It's a surreal work of staggering genius and unimaginable amount of man hours must have

gone into this. It is my single favorite piece of content that gets put out each year. I think it's like, to me, like, you know, just sitting back. It's like, you know, how Scorsesey watching. one of his favorite directors and just like sitting back in awe. It is so, so good. How long did this take you? When did you get started on this?

How many hours per day were you working on this? First off, I can't thank you enough for the kind words. So much goes into it. And so to hear the positive feedback, it really means a lot. It's a year-round project for me. This is something that I've already started on next year's. draft guide, just, you know, getting these little tidbits from players this year or when I'm talking to coaches, you know, talking about a player in this, in this class. It's, oh, yeah, by the way,

you've got, you know, a defense event for next year. How has he been? Just so talking to a lot of people throughout the course of the year, the summer for me is basically laying the groundwork for these players. So I'll be, you know, the upcoming senior class, watch in film all summer just to get that, lay that groundwork, a base for which each one of these players are. And then throughout the season, that's when you adjust things and as the tape comes in. And then the draft process starts. And usually all the haze in the barn at that part of the calendar year is when, you know, January hits and it's the all-star season.

And then the combine in a normal year. This year has obviously been very different. And then the pro days. And, you know, at that point, most of the work is done. We know who the players are. And it's just about, okay, just figuring out how to finalize each one of those reports, It's getting the most accurate information because some of the stuff is tough with character and medicals. That's not stuff that we know.

It's stuff that we hear. And I trust my sources. I've been doing this long enough where I know who to trust, who not to trust with people that I talk to in the league and where the good info comes from and where maybe some false info will come from. So, you know, doing this long enough, thankfully that helps. And one thing I'm very proud about with this draft guide is all the verified, pro-day data is in there. So, you know, without the combine, we don't have that that data, but all the NFL verified pro-day data coming from straight from a team is in the draft guide. So people can check that out. And hopefully people, if you haven't checked out the guide yet,

all you need is an athletic subscription. So hopefully you do. And I promise you won't be disappointed. Yeah. And really that athletic subscription, like the draft guide pays for itself. you really see the amount of hard work that went into this. And, you know, you were, it was Dane Brugler Day, the day it came out. I think it had like 600 retweets within the hour. But yeah, it's well worth it. Tremendous work of effort. And one of my favorite things to read each year, your pro day data.

Yeah, thank you so much for that because it was an absolute mess anywhere you looked. And that's about as official as these times are going to get. Dane's sourcing that straight from NFL teams. That's what I relied on. That's when you see me reference numbers on Twitter, my spork score. You know, I wouldn't have been able to do that with any level of confidence, if not for Dane's help. Dane, you said you've been doing this long enough. I was talking to Sig Bloom yesterday.

Tell me you've been doing this since you were 18 years old. So why don't you tell me how you got your start in this industry and what that was like? Well, I grew up in Northeast Ohio, and now we're back in Northeast Ohio. But when the Browns came back in 99, that just peaked something with me. You know, it sparked something. And I was fascinated why, okay, Tim Cow, Tricky Williams, Donna McNabb, all these quarterbacks at the top, just was fascinated by the process. And I dove right in. And, you know, my freshman year at Mount Union was the first year ever did a draft guide.

And that was in my freshman dorm room. and it just kind of took off from there. For me, what really helped me get my foot in the door was working for the football team at Mount Union. And so Pierre Garsohn and I were seniors together. And so when we had scouts come through that year, I'd be the one taking scouts to practice, taking them around the facility, things like that. And that helps grow my network. It also helped really establish my informal scouting education, you know,

learning from these guys, asking questions, understanding what to look for at positions, you know, all these things. And, you know, that was 15 years ago now, you know, close to it at least. And so I've been able to, the last, you know, dozen years, grow as an evaluator. Because I think the most important trait for an evaluator is just self-evaluation, understanding, because you're going to miss. That's inevitable. Everybody misses, but it's understanding what you're missing on to get better next time and continue. to evolve as a scout. And so now I've been very, very blessed in this, in this business to, you know, learn under

some great people. You know, C.O. Bracado has been, it was a big mentor of mine over the years, was learning from him, Gil Brandt, same type of thing. A lot of, a lot of scouts are currently, currently scouting in the NFL right now. So very blessed in that respect. And I couldn't do, I couldn't be where I'm at without the, without their help. like I said, that informal scouting education. All right, Dan, well, let's just dive right into the fantasy goodness.

I think that's what all of our listeners are looking for here. So first up, you're a Kenneth Gainwell fan. I'm a Kenneth Gainwell fan, but he's one of the more polarizing rookies and fantasy. Our guest on yesterday wasn't a fan at all. His player comps, you see they're all over the place. You know, Alvin Kamara Light, poor Mince, Christian McCaffrey, and then a bunch of scat-back-only types Devin Singletary, Theoretic. So why do you like him and how do you envision his usage in the NFL?

You think he's scat-back-only or do you think he has a little more upside beyond that? He's kind of, you know, scat-back plus kind of thing where, you know, that's what he does best because you want to use him as a pass-catcher. If he didn't have the past-catching skills, we wouldn't be talking about him as a possible top 100, top 120 pick. His ability as just a rusher is good, but is not to the level of what we're talking about in the first three, three and a half rounds.

But when you factor in how naturally he is, when it flex him across the formation, line him up out wide, you know, use them. It could be simple screens. It could be, you know, routes down the field. Whatever you want to use him, however you want to use him, you can get creative. And so I think, and he's going to,

interesting backstory of being a, you know, he's a former quarterback in high school and, you know, goes to Memphis. And he was, he was the guy that kept Antonio Gibson at wide receiver. And there's just a lot to like about what he did in that 2019 season. opted out in 2020. So we're missing that year of film and development. But he was so good in that 20, 2019 season. And when you look at some of the other players that offense has produced, I think it's easy to. be optimistic about how he's going to translate. So, you know, the broken tackle rate was high for him. And then this is the past catching skills. Those two things really stand out for me on his film and why at some point in the third round, I would be, I would be taking the chance on him if I had a need for that type of running

back. I don't know that he's necessarily going to give you, you know, 10 plus carries a game. But with his ability as a past catcher, if I'm looking for that role, that's where the value comes in. So I'm going to give him 15 to 20 touches per game. It just might be, you know, pretty evenly split between carries and past targets. Yeah. And for the folks at home, that really points to his fantasy upside. Remember, for fantasy, a target is worth 2.83 times as much as a carry. So, you know, you really gravitate towards those running backs who are phenomenal past catchers and just hope you can get those, like you said, maybe eight to 10 carries to, to

bring them up to the fringe RB1, high-end RB2 level. Let's move on to the wide receiver position because this is a question. I've been dying to ask you for a long time. So this wide receiver class profiles to me is a special one. But it's also fairly unique. There's a number of highly regarded wide receivers with potential red flags, Devont de Smith, the weight, the BMI, didn't participate at his pro day. Rondale Moore, the lack of height, Tutu Atwell, you know,

even more egregious red flags or more serious red flags with the weight and the BMI. So how is the NFL viewing these prospects? Are these legitimate concerns? Why or why not? For some teams, it absolutely is. You know, for some teams, they look at Devante Smith and just say, no way. We just don't draft outliers in the first round. And really, that's what Devante Smith is.

When you're talking about a player that's over six foot and 170 pounds. And, you know, Albert Breer tweeted today how he was 166 at his medical weigh-in, which, I mean, not really a big surprise. You know, last spring when scouts weighed him, he was 172. Before the season, he was in the 160s. And then at his pro day, he weighed in. He did weigh in, and he was 170 on the dot. It wasn't just him telling people. He actually did weigh in for scouts.

And this isn't a case where, you know, just, okay, get him to an NFL team. He'll put on 10 pounds. He'll be 180. he just doesn't have the body type for that. That's not going to happen. And he's coming from Alabama, not Alabama State. If he could put on those 10 pounds, he would have already. He just doesn't have the body type to do so.

And so he is an outlier with just hard to find first round wide receivers over six foot that are 170 or less and have done anything to live up to that first round status. It's just it's a rare thing. But when you watch the film, it's easy to get excited. So there definitely is a split with some NFL teams about, okay, you've got an outlier here. We're just not going to be interested in that. Where other teams are going to say, we can't ignore the tape. He did enough on this 2020 film. And it's not just that.

It's, okay, he started at least double-digit games each of the last three years. He plays tougher and more physical than several 225-pound receivers in this class. So it's not like there is a track record of, you know, major injury here or maybe him, being passive or just non-aggressive. That's not a case. It's not a, that's not a, that's not something that is going to follow him to the next level. So does 170 matter? Sure, it matters.

You don't just ignore that and say, you know, it means nothing. But at the same time, I don't think it should necessarily stop you from drafting a player like that, you know, at some point in the first round. But where that point is, that's where it's going to be a little bit different for everybody. And there's, I think, you know, the general fame would be very surprised how little consensus there is. In fact, take the word consensus, take the word safe and just get it out of here. It has no bearing in NFL draft conversations. You know, a guy like Ron Dale Moore, I was talking to a scout the other day who asked me flat out. He's like, is there really a chance?

Ron Dale Moore is not going to go top 50. I said, yeah, I think there is. Just when you look at the size, that's just not going to be for everybody. He's going to fit a specific scheme, a specific role within a scheme. And he said, man, that'd just be, that'd be crazy to me. And so, you know, you talk to another scout who says, you know, that just he's not going to be for us. We can't draft a 5-7 receiver in a top 50 picks. So there's just so many split opinions on these wide receivers because they're so different in what they offer, their strengths, how they can impact the team. And just the fact that not every team is looking for that specific type of player.

You know, a guy like Elijah Moore would fit perfectly in a certain scheme. And then another scheme, they kind of already have a guy like that. And they're not really interested in adding another one for what he does best. And so don't be surprised when, I think we're pretty, you know, the top three receivers are pretty set. But then don't be surprised at all four, five, six, seven, those wide receivers off the board. It's anybody's guess. Rashide Bateman, Elijah Moore. You know, there are some fans for Terrace Marshall, although I don't think as many as there are on Twitter.

you know, Cadarius Tony's got his own set of red flags, but there's plenty to light there. So it's just a really fascinating wide receiver class once you get past those top three in late first, into the second round, into the third round. It's a really fascinating group. Okay. So I have two questions I am absolutely dying to ask you as it relates to the wide receiver position because I think this is a great wide receiver class, but also a unique one. For one thing, there's a number of highly regarded wide receivers with potential red flags.

Devanta Smith, the weight, BMI, and participated as pro day. Ron Dale Moore, the height, Tutu Atwell, even skinnier, lower BMI than Devonta Smith. So my question to you is, how is the NFL viewing these prospects and are these legitimate concerns? Yeah, there's definitely some concern with some teams. And there's a split opinions on a guy like Devante Smith. There are some teams that will say, hey, we're just not going to be that team that's going to take an outlier in the first round. And he is an outlier. He's six foot, 170 pounds.

And as Albert Breer tweeted this morning, he weighed 166 at his medical evaluation in Indianapolis, which shouldn't be a huge surprise. Last spring, scouts measured him at 172. Before the season, he was in the 160s. He weighed in at his pro day at 170. D. So, you know, just that's his playing weight. And this isn't a case of, okay, he's going to go to the NFL, getting their strength and conditioning program and add 10 pounds and B-180. That's just, it's not going to happen. That's not his body type. He's coming from Alabama, not Alabama State. If he could add 10 pounds, he would have already. So, and that's just it is what it is. And so some teams are going to look at that and say, you know, there's just not a track record of six foot, 170 pound receivers taken in the first round. to have lived up to that. And so they're going to pass. But other teams are going to focus on the tape,

focus on what he does well, and focus on the fact that he started double-digit games each of the last three years. The fact that he is tougher and more competitive than a lot of 225-pound receivers out there. So, you know, I think it's one of those cases where there's going to be split opinion. It's not going to be a consensus.

The word consensus should not even be remotely used as much as it is when it comes to draft rankings and all that. And I think that a great example is wide receivers four through eight in this class. After the first three, it's anybody's guess who's going to be that fourth receiver off the board. You talk to some teams, they'll tell you it's Elijah Moore. Other teams will say Bateman. Other teams, there's some Rondale Moore fans out there around the league.

So, you know, there's really no consensus. It all comes down to fit and that specific type of receiver. I mean, like last year, you know, we thought for sure Justin Jefferson would be the fourth receiver. and instead the Eagles had different plans with what they did. So, you know, it's something that with this wide receiver class, there's a lot of talent. It's just the order they're going to come off the board could be very different than what we're thinking. I was talking to a scout the other day who asked me, you know, could Rondale more really not go in the top 50? And I said, yeah, probably just based off of the feedback I get, you know, five, seven receivers aren't exactly, you know, the most.

attractive prospects for a lot of teams. And he told me that just crazy to him because of how talented Rondale Morris. So you're just going to get different opinions on these receivers, depending on who you talk to. And boards are different around the league at every position. And that's very much true at wide receiver where there's different types, different styles, different scheme fits based off of what each team is looking for in the top two rounds. Yeah. So maybe that's the answer to my follow-up question here. but you talked about Jalen Rieger being a surprise.

And in Philadelphia's post draft press conference, Harry Roseman basically just came out and said, yeah, we like Jalen Rieger because he gets separation on the outside and the other wide receivers in this class. We weren't sure that they can get separation on the outside. I know Justin Jefferson, 99% of his routes from the slot in his final season, the year before that, you know, heavily productive on the outside. And so I think the wrong announcement,

analysis there was thinking Justin Jefferson can't separate on the outside. But we've seen NFL teams devalue the slot position. And like I said, this class is a great class for wide receivers. But there's also a lot of slot predominant wide receivers in this class, Waddle, Tony, Elijah, Atwell, Amari, Rondale, Amanra, etc. So, so what do you make of that? Do you think the NFL is going to continue to devalue slot wide receivers this year in this draft class? Or do you think the NFL is just going to be in desperate need of some good sticky nickel cornerbacks in a few years? Yeah, it's tough because there's obviously only room for so many of these guys. There's more supply than demand when you talk about slot receivers. And so it comes down to NFL teams needing to decide, okay, what can they offer us besides working out of the slot? You know, can we line them up outside? Elijah Moore, I think is a great example of this. they lined them up everywhere across that formation in Ole Miss in Lane Kiffin's offense,

backfield, out wide, you know, on the wing. However they could be creative with Elijah Moore, they found a way to do it. And they forced fit into football, led the FBS and catches per game. And so he responded in a big way. And so does an NFL team look at Elijah Moore as can be that type of guy? Like I think in a really intriguing fit for him is when you look at Urban Meyer and the Jaguars, picking at, what, 25, you know, Urban Meyer can't help himself. He wants speed and more speed and more speed on that offense.

And Elijah Moore, could that be his Percy Harvin, you know, that Paris Campbell to his offense, a guy that you can line up across the formation and just be creative with. So I think each team really looks at it differently. There really is no consensus on, you know, some teams, they subscribe specifically to XYZ and, you know, the wide receiver alphabet of, you know, their office. offense. They're not really willing to go outside of that. And they want a specific player who is your X and your Y and your Z. And so not every team is willing to be creative with how they align their personnel and what they do and with their alignment. So, you know, it is tough when you've got guys

like Amari Rogers or, you know, say a player like Ron Dale Moore, who I think can do more than just be a slot receiver, but some teams are going to, you know, kind of look at them as that they're a slot. And that's, you know, that's kind of how, you know, we're not going to really be creative with thinking outside the box about how else they could be used while other teams are the opposite. So, you know, it's, I don't know that that's a great answer because it really just depends on team to team and scheme to scheme. And, you know, I think we've seen more teams be creative in the last five years than the previous, you know, 15 years, uh, when it comes to offense play calling and trying to get this, you know, look at your players and focus on

their strengths and what they can do. And I just hope that continues for a lot of these players who have clear talent. It just, you might have to really focus in and invest in their strengths to get the most out of them. Okay. Great, great answer. Last question for you. Who are some potential sleepers, you know, surprises to go on day two of the draft. Could it be your guy, my guy, Jacob Harris, who is looking like a 99th percentile athlete at either the wide receiver position or the tight end position? Could it be Mel Kuiper Jr. has 2-2 Atwell, Anthony Schwartz, Dwayne Esprich, Cindy Fahoko, all going in round two of his most recent mock draft. Those guys are all available in round four of a rookie draft. So that's just saying.

saying, you know, the fantasy community is totally sleeping on them. And if they go day two, they could just vault up draft board. So, so who are some sleepers you like in this class at the running back wide receiver tight end position? Well, Jacob Harris, definitely. You know, I'm very happy that I put out my sleeper article the day before his pro day. So that, that was, that was good timing on my part.

I didn't expect him to test as well as he did, but I thought, you know, he was going to test well based off of how he was training from what I was told. So, you know, and Harris is a fascinating, you know, just prospect when you think about his background as a soccer player. And yeah, he's going to be a 24-year-old rookie, but he's still very young in football years. And, you know, he's getting better and better. And we saw that the last two years on film, eight touchdowns this past year, needs to cut down on the drops.

But when you're talking about a guy that 6-5-220 runs a 4-4-0 in the 40, 6-5-1 in a 3-1 in a 3-com. and he's just silly. So he has the athleticism. And I think one thing with Jacob Harris that you love is he can play special teams. He had 10 tackles in his career at UCF, you know, a guy that while you develop him on offense or, you know, at least try to develop him, he's going to be able to fill a roster spot and you're going to justify it because he's going to make plays on coverage. So that's something that I think, I don't know that he's going to get top 100, you know,

day two. But I think if someone draft him in the fourth round, would that be shocking? No, it shouldn't be. You mentioned a few wide receivers there that are kind of on the cusp and are interesting. I think Simi Fahoko is one of the more interesting ones. And it's a similar conversation with Jacob Harris, not quite as freaky, but a guy that's a little bit older, you know, having a religious mission and is, you know, before he went to Stanford. A guy that's, you know, good size receiver, really productive this past season for Davis Mills and Stanford. And a guy that tested off the charts.

And also a guy that can play special teams. I think that's a strong selling point with him. A guy that's, I don't think he's going to get top 100, but another guy, if he went fourth round, would not be shocked at all because of everything that he can do. And a guy that's a little bit older still has upside because he's younger in football years. And there's still untapped talent there with a guy like that.

Anthony Schwartz, he's, he's tough because he's, he's one of the fastest humans in this country, which obviously is appealing. for an NFL team. But if the asking price is a second rounder, man, that's tough. That's tough. Or even a third rounder. That's tough to do.

Because he's a better speed athlete than he is football player. I mean, the best way I can sum it up, he had more rushing touchdowns than he did receiving touchdowns in college over his career. That's a red flag right there. For a guy with that type of speed, you know, he didn't have a ton of explosive plays. I mean, he did have some with that speed, but it was a lot of feaster famine.

And when you look at it, only 9.4% of his catches resulted in a 25 plus yard play. You expect more out of a guy with that type of speed. So all those things really worry me. But I understand why if a team does pull the trigger in the top 100 on a guy like Anthony Schwartz, you understand why. 425 speed. And it's easy speed. It's not forced.

He could roll out of bed and probably run a 4-3 easy without even stretching. So he's a player that's, you know, six foot. You get him out of that Auburn offense. You have to wonder how much that maybe that Auburn offense held him back a little bit. So although, you know, I can understand why a team would talk themselves into Anthony Schwartz as a top 75 pick. It's a little rich for me, but I would understand it at that point. Boom.

Ladies and gentlemen, it is the Fantasy Points podcast. It's also apparently FTN crossover week. We had Brett Whitefield on just a few days ago. today we have Elliott Christ, long-time personal friend of myself. Also, the chief operating officer over at FTN Network. He's joining us today to talk about the NFL draft. We're going to do a little mock draft, and along the way he's going to tell us some of his favorite bets.

Elliot, we go way, way back in the day. I'll never forget watching the 2017 NFL draft with you. Is that right, 2017-in-L-Jah? The Christian McAfree. Yeah, I know. I'm just, they all merge, the years all merged together at this point.

But it was the Christian-McCafar year, right? Yeah, I always get my years mixed up, but we just watched an endless amount of tape. Yeah, it was the 2017 draft. Endless amount of tape, you and I, and we would, like, batted 1,000 that year. Just like, eh, don't really love Corey Davis,

don't really love Mike Williams, you know, Leonard Fernette, you know, way overhyped, but Christian McCaffrey, the next Ladanian Thomason, Kareem Hunt, star the draft. You were all over, Alvin Kamara. And then even like all the way down to the sleepers, you know, we love some absolute sleepers in this class. Buda Baker, one of our guys. And George Kittal. Was George Kittle in that class too? Yeah, yeah. You like George Kittle. Brett like George Kittle. I like George Kittle. So that was, that was an awesome, super fun draft for us. And unfortunately, you're not really

diving too much into rookie tape, but you have Brett Whitefields for that. And he joined us recently, like I said. But now you're kind of more in the betting side. Is that right? Yeah, so I still watch some rookie tape. I don't have the time I used to. I do feel like I should almost be smoking hookah while we do this just for old times. But yeah, the betting the draft, I think it's just, it's so interesting with the way the markets move and the number of values and the fact that a lot of these books are kind of guessing at lines. I think there's a lot of opportunity there. And also, I really appreciate, you know,

you talked about us batting a thousand. There was one guy who the jets drafted, who I was all kinds of excited about, who I think caught three passes or four passes in his career. I like to leave him out of the near perfect record that year. But our Darius Stewart was a little rough on us, but the rest of them we got, right? Yeah, I refuse to acknowledge that as a miss.

I'm going to say, you know, if you went to anywhere but your jets, he would have been a superstar, but, you know, it's hard to rub the jet stink off of someone. I'm good with that. That reasoning works, and there's sound logic there. Unfortunately, we don't get to blame Adam Gase on that one, but I'm happy to, you know, he knew Adam Gase was coming, and so he just wanted to get out of the NFL before he'd be in. All right. All right.

Let's dive into this. Let's do a little mock draft. 101. Who do you think the Jaguars take? The guy that the Jaguars is a lot. The guy that the Jaguars fans have been sending toasters to. And he's been tweeting at the Jaguar saying how excited he is to go there. Is there any edge in betting $1,000 to win $5 with Trevor Lawrence?

I mean, it's free return, right? I think that's like it's zero risk. It's like the one zero risk bet you can make. But you need to get so much money down for it to be worth it. I mean, if you put everything in and you just want to put the, rest of your bank account bank roll in on Trevor Lawrence. It's a zero risk proposition, but you're going to make like you said, like a dollar. Yeah, I think the one concern is that like Woody Johnson, you know,

Photoshop's a picture of him in a gas mask and he falls one spot. I think that's the only, only chance. You have to do it. You would do it like at what times the draft start at seven, right? So you would do it at like. Pass your bedtime. Yeah. We're going to have lots of coffee that night.

multiple naps. It's going to be rough for me. But we'll get through there. I would say that you probably want to do it the day of the draft just because, like, God, forbid, he gets in, like, a car crash between now and then or something like that. But that's probably what it would take, right? Like an act of God or him doing something illegal. So if you do the bet the day of the draft, the odds won't move, and then you eliminate any, like, act of God risk. Okay. All right. All right. Well, is it the same level of certainty there at 102 with the Jets and Zach Wilson? It's not quite, right? I think he's minus 5,000.

I think Trevor Lawrence is minus 10,000. But it's, I mean, it's basically the same. They told Zach Wilson's dad he's going to be a jet. And that's a real, that's a real, a whole move right there. If you start telling people's parents we're drafting your kid and then you don't do it. I also think that, you know, Zach Wilson kind of became the pick and then the 49ers turned up right afterwards. half the Jets staff just coached in San Francisco. They probably called the Jets said who you're taking.

Jets told them and then they moved right on up to three to draft a guy that we still don't know who it's going to be. Yeah, so I think this one's interesting. I don't have, you know, maybe amazing sources, but I do have one really good source who's very infrequently wrong. When Justin Fields very quickly became the favorite, he told me, no, there's no way. it's still Mac Jones.

There's no way it's not Mac Jones. And a few days ago, he told me, actually he thinks it's Trey Lance. And a few NFL teams are preparing as though it's Trey Lance. And I think that's what makes the entirety of the mock draft sort of hinges upon that pick where it goes, okay, if it goes Mac Jones, you know, Falcons really could take Trey Lance there.

Where if it's Trey Lance, then I think they're kind of locked into Kyle Piff. hits. What are you thinking? Do you think there's still a really good chance it's Justin Fields? It's funny. I was all ready to talk to you about why I think it's going to be Trey Lance. I was told, I've been talking to a few different people. The biggest thing with the 49ers is that they're very tight-lipped. They've done a very good job of not letting this get out. But the one thing I've heard was Trey Lance is the Falcons guy. Like if they're going to take a quarterback, it's tray Lance. And then it comes out that the dolphins are trying to trade six, right, which would tell me,

okay, the dolphins traded up to six because they want one of Kyle Pitts, who you may have heard of before, I'm not sure, and Orange and Mar Chase, right, because they want that playmaker. And now they're looking to trade out, which tells me the Falcons may have decided on Pitts and the Bengals may have decided on Chase, which would tell, that signal trigger would tell me that Lance is probably the third pick. That's why I would lean Lance. and you can bet him up to plus 450 right now. So I think he, if you're going to bet on who the pick is, I think Trey Lance has the most value.

Yeah, so that's what my source is telling me. It goes, Lawrence, Zach, Lance, Pitts, Chase, and then at six, it starts to get interesting, probably a trade down there. And it wouldn't surprise me if the dolphins actually traded that pick at a profit from what they paid to the Eagles for it. in a similar move down. But yeah, so let's rewind the tape. Let's go back to four. Would you say Tray Lance is the most likely pick at three? I don't know. That's the way I'm leaning right now,

but I really think it could be any of the three guys, but I do think it's going to be Lance ultimately. Okay. So then who do you think is most likely at four? And then let's just like gush over Kyle Pitts for like five minutes. I think it's Kyle. Pets. I think the Falcons, I know Arthur Blank is interested in a quarterback, but he's also said he's not going to interfere. The ownership says that all the time, and then they interfere at the end of the day because billionaires, no matter how many people they hire to do things, like to think they're the smartest person in the room, right? It's gotten a lot of teams into trouble. But Pitts, if you, Pitts is a move where the Falcons think they can compete right away

makes all the sense in the world because if you put Pitts, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, with Matt Ryan, you have as dynamic of a playmaking group as there is in the NFL. And if you can score that kind of points, right? You can compete right away. This falcons team obviously was not good last year,

but they can compete with a lot of people. And also Kyle Pitts in a dome, man, that sounds phenomenal. I think that should be the pick. You know, I know you love to give me crap on Twitter when I said no tight end has been a top five pick since 1972. But no tight end has also ever had the prospect profile of cow pits, right? That's the other aspect of this kind of thing. And he really is a receiver.

Like 99%thal and everything, his wingspan is absurd. His production is amazing. I think it's, I think it is pits and I think it should be pits. Right. You, you, when you get into the projections for what a team is going to do rather than what these should do. Yeah, you really have to look at who holds the most sway in the room. Is it the newly hired GM? Is it the newly signed head coach? And then we know ownership at the end of the day holds the biggest sway. You can just veto or override what the GM or head coach is going to have. And then you have differing incentives there. The GM is going to be thinking more in terms of long-term

success, whereas the head coach is probably going to want to get off to a good start in year one, not lose the locker room. And you have to remember, this is an offensive-minded head coach where it might be more in his favor for the team to be a four-win team with a crazy offense than an eight-and-eight team that's more balanced, just because he was hired as an offensive mind. and he's also a former tight ends coach. And I have to imagine he's just drooling over that offense with Kyle Pitts there, in addition to Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, because I have no idea how you cover that passing attack if you're an opposing

defensive coordinator. But you know, the GM might say, hey, I want my quarterback of the future. I don't know how many years left there is on Matt Ryan. We're not going to have another top five pick. Or maybe I could trade down and just like really solidify this roster, get myself another first round pick next year. And, you know, more darts to, throw out the board, the better my hit rate's going to look kind of thing.

But I'm with you in that I ultimately think it's Kyle Pitts. We moved to 105 Bengals. I'm hearing sort of the same thing where ownership has a guy, the head coach has a guy, and they're not the same guy. So ultimately, it's going to go to the head coach. And you have to imagine Joe Burroughs, you know, trying to pull the strings behind the scene saying, you know, get me my guy, Jamar Chase, he's a stud. Who do you think goes?

there. I'm all over with this pick. A lot of people thought it was Sewell, and then I've heard that now people are starting to really lean towards Chase. And to your point with the Falcons, I think one of their struggles is going to be, you know, it takes two to tango. Everyone always says trade down, but who's going to pay the right price to come up? And then who's going to pay that price where you get a first round pick next year? But let's say it's the Patriots. Now you're going to 15. You're no longer you're getting a blue chip prospects, right? I think sometimes people think some of these perfect deals are at people's fingertips when they're not.

So I think that's the challenge. Especially this year where, you know, the top five or six, let's say, is like such a sweet spot or maybe even beyond that where really like Kyle Pitts is already in the Hall of Fame. That's crazy. I don't remember the last time a rookie prospect was in the Hall of Fame. So like you're jumping at that. Jamar Chase, you know, maybe the best wide receiver prospect since A.J. Green and Julio Jones, you know, one of these two phenomenal offensive linemen, and there's all these

quarterbacks that everyone wants to take. So really special draft. And like you said, yeah, you know, there's tiers. Just like we have tiers in rookie drafts, NFL teams are going to have these tiers where, you know, the six pick might be worth a lot more than the seven pick, just based on how these tiers fall. So I think that's a great point. Yeah, I mean, at the end of day, there's the quarterbacks and then there's considered, what, three blue chip guys, right, with Kyle Pitts, Jamar Chase, and Penny Sewell, who a lot of people compare to Jonathan Ogden and think he's a Hall of Fame level tackle, right, who was dominant at 19 years old, took this year off. It's got a frame a little bit shorter arms than people like.

We're not about to break down arm size on this podcast, I'm guessing. But those three guys, like you said, if you're not going to get one of them, the pick loses a lot of value. So I think that's a challenge for the Falcons too. like if the lines wanted to come up, I think the Falcons would have interest in that. But when you start talking to the Patriots, you know, you might be looking at adding Mika Parsons

instead of Kyle Pitts. And like that drop off is pretty phenomenal. Right. So, and then are the Patriots going to have a mid to late first round next year? And then like what's happening, right? So I think that's the challenge. But I think it'll be pits and then I think it'll be Chase.

And then I think like you said, I think the dolphins traded up to six really thinking they would get pits or chase. So if they're both gone, I think they're going to try to trade out. If they're forced to stay, I think they should take Sewell. I think they will take a weapon. And I think Devonta Smith is probably the guy. Wow. Why Smith over Waddle? I've just heard that's who they like more. It's not necessarily what I would do. It's just, I heard that's why they don't view him as the guy who should be but they view them as the top weapon on the board if those two guys are gone. Okay.

So if it plays out exactly like we have right now, who do the Lions take? Because they have to be another potential trade target for one of these quarterbacks. Or, hey, Sewell's on the board. What a, you know, can't believe our luck. Let's just grab them and go. Right. So they really should take Sewell, right? Because then as bad as the Lions would be, they'd have a top five offensive unit,

offensive line unit and Jared Goff is horrendous under pressure. We know those coaches want to run the ball there. Yep. It's so funny that they built a coaching staff of guys who probably couldn't complete a basic algebra program and built a analytics department that rivals a lot of people, right? So they would also hold that last blue chip prospect there at seven. And that would be a prime trade down candidate.

And frankly, you know, the lions aren't going to be competitive for at least a couple years. Right. So I think things to get weird there. I think they're beyond the quarterbacks, I think a couple guys that teams might trade up for is, you know, Seul, Slater to potentially jump the Panthers. And I think a guy like J.C. Horn is someone that NFL teams are going to be very high on, just in terms of his size, his athleticism, his man-to-man skills, press man. all that kind of stuff is something that typically doesn't fall in the draft. And I think he's the surprise guy that might go in the top 10. And now in this mock, I don't know if we'll get there, but I definitely think that's a possibility.

Yeah. So Penae Soule, 325 pounds. So he can bite off a lot of kneecaps, big guy. I'm with you, though. I think this team is in a multi-year tank slash rebuild. And, you know, they certainly more so than Miami trading. down would probably be better suited trading down, collecting picks, preparing for that, I don't know, 2023 season. So the Panthers, your pick at 108? Well, I think at 101 would be

Rashan Slater. I think they'll run the card in if he's there. I think they'll pick Sewell over him, but I think Slater would be the guy. Interesting. So we have three quarterbacks off the board. Denver's at 109. They have a stacked receiving room. Noah Fant, my guy, Jerry Judy, KJ Hamler in the slot, Cortland Sutton comes back, Tim Patrick's still there, Albert O, tight end two. All they need is a competent quarterback. I don't know if you think that's Drew Locke or not, but I personally do not. Only three quarterbacks off the board. Did he go Justin Fields? Do they go Mac Jones? Do they trade down? What do they do? I think they go just a. Fields here. I think they should go Justin Fields here.

You know, this is a, this is a dream scenario for me if I'm a Denver Bronco fan. I don't have to spend all the capital, but I get a young, talented quarterback to go with all those weapons you just described. And their defense isn't that far away, especially with getting Von Miller back, getting Bradley Chubb back. You know, this, this is going to be a big fan. Joe's probably last ever head coaching job. I think getting a quarterback that can unlike that top end talent makes all the sense in the world here. Okay. Dallas at 10 can imagine Jerry Jones' luck.

He can get the best defensive player in this class, whoever you think that is. He could trade down to a team who wants a quarterback. What do you think they do? The one interesting rumor I've heard is that if Mack Jones is there, the Patriots might trade Stefan Gilmore and 15 for 10. And if you can do that, I'm the Dallas Cowboys. You know, like no tradebacks, right?

Like that's amazing how quickly they can fix the defense. If they're not able to pull off a tradeback, I really think they're going to take Patrick Sir Tan. He's gone in like the last five days across industry mocks to the Cowboys and 72% of mocks. Wow. Good stats. It's the most mocked player to a team.

team outside of the top two. Like, it's all the beatwriters have been campaigning for Patrick Sturtain all offseason. Apparently, it's like the worst kept secret that that's who the Cowboys want. So I really expect Sertan to be the 10th overall pick. Okay. So I like your idea of that potential trade with New England. I mean, should we just be hammering Dallas over Dallas Super Bowl bets right now? I mean, how do you pass it up when you get Stefan Gilmore?

And then if you still wanted to take a cornerback, you know, there's a really good chance. J.C. Horn, Caleb Farley might still be there. Did you imagine if the Cowboys walked away from this draft with Stefan Gilmore and J.C. Horn? They went from like the worst cornerbacks in the league to like a top 10 pairing, top five pairing. Like that would be pretty absurd. With maybe the best, probably the best wide receiver trio in football, DAC back and healthy. Yikes.

Tony Pollard, you know, a good running back. His backup, what's his name? It's similar to my name, but I'm blanking on it. Ezekiel? Ezekiel Elliott, is that it? I think that's what it is. It's some fat guy with a beard that is overrated. Overpaid, I think we can all agree on.

But yeah, I actually think the Cowboys, I mean, their offense, that Prescott was on pace to throw for the most yards ever. I don't even necessarily think it is arguable that they have the best. trio in the NFL. Now, if the Falcons drafted pits and you wanted to include pits there, then I think you could have a conversation, but C.D. Lamb is, I don't know if there's a more talented slot receiver in the NFL than him. Calm down, Buffalo. I know you're all excited about Cole Beasley, but I think C.D. Lam is better than Cole Beasley. And Mara Cooper and Michael Gallup. Yeah, hot take alert. But I definitely think the Cowboys are in play for that kind of run.

Everyone's counterpoint is the Cowboys don't win, right? Which is, to me, isn't really relevant. The DAC Prescott with those weapons and actually getting corners that allow their defense to compete, I think would make them an incredibly strong team. Love it. Absolutely. I am a Giants fan, as you know, big-time Cowboys Hater, not so much these days. Just Jerry Jones won me over. I just love the guy. I think he's hilarious. I think he's fascinating. His life story is like ridiculous. He, you know, it was like a super undersized offensive lineman on a national championship winning team. He was captain. He just wanted to own a football team. So he went into like wildcat oil drilling. And then he like after years of, you know, being in debt up to

his eyeballs, like finally struck it rich. He bought the Dallas Cowboys. Everyone hated him. He also married like Miss Arkansas when he was like 19 years old. just like a, I don't know. He's just hilarious to me, just like a fascinating human being. So like, and he still has his tentacles all over the Dallas drafts. And last year's draft was awesome. We both love CD Lamb. He fell into the laps.

I can definitely see, you know, Dallas walking away with last year, easily the best draft class. Maybe they could do that too if they somehow work this, this Stefan Gilmore trade out. Next up. The only thing you left out with Jerry Jones is the fact that, you know, he's got a guy that cleans his glasses as well. Like he's just, he's a living legend.

Like, I don't know who wouldn't want to live Jerry Jones life right now if you gave them an opportunity to. Yeah. I mean, I have like 50 years left. He has like six and like, I mean, those six years might be better than my remaining 50. Which is another reason why they're probably going to go all in this year, right, if they can. I mean, that's a good point. He doesn't, Jerry Jones wants another Super Bowl before he dies. He doesn't exactly have a ton of time to try to rebuild and start everything over.

So a move like that, getting a veteran. starter that's that is that could be huge for them love it all right well what about my giants at 11 who do they take so it's interesting they're they're the favorites for devanta smith across a lot of books so it's all right here's why that makes sense to me is because we watch get so many gettelman pressers together and he's just hilarious to watch like he sounds like a boston robert de nero that christian mcalfrey pick he just put his feet up on the desk, leaned back into his armchair and like swirled a glass of whiskey, held a cigar in his hand, and was like, feel great about the pick. Feel great. This guy's a star. He's a red flags. I don't see a

single one. Wait, nope. Inside runner, best inside runner I've ever watched, to go screw yourself. Just like a hilarious guy. We know he's so old school-minded. I think it's just the exact same thing with Devonda Smith where it's like, hey, he had 250 yards in the first half in the national championship. First wide receiver to win the Heisman in 30 years. This guy's special. He could play football. We draft football players. His weight, his weight, he won the Heismid. Didn't you hear me? And it's just like, that makes so much sense to me as a Gettleman pick. What might not make sense is, you know, they just gave Kenny Gallaudet, a lot of money. We got Darius Slayton, who's, you know, an ascending talent, Sterling Shepard in the slot.

What do you think? So I think Daniel Jones is not that good. In order for him to get you to where you want to go, you should surround him with as many weapons as possible, high-end guys that can elevate his play. Because I think then you can be very competitive. The Giants defense is very solid, right? If you said that you give me,

Slayton is a wider steer forward with Kenny, Gallaudet, Devanta Smith, Sterling Shepard, Evan Ingram, and Sequin Barclay. Like, that's as loaded as you can ask for for a young quarterback. Plus, if Daniel Jones can't succeed with that team and that offense, you now know you need to go get another quarterback. And when you do, he's set up for success. So I love building on strengths. I love when teams do that, especially when that strength wins football games, which is

your ability to throw the football, right? So I would be all in on them getting Smith or Waddle. But I agree. Like everything you just said is such a Dave Gettleman thing to do to put his feet on the desk and just say I love to want to Smith. All right. Next up, NFC East still. Back to back to back to back, NFC's picks. Eagles at 12.

I'm hearing a lot of Jalen Waddle. Is that what you think happens? I've talked to an Eagles guy the other day and he said it's, he thinks it'll be waddle or horn. So the one interesting thing here, too, in terms of back to back to back, NFC East picks is Washington is a team that could hypothetically try to come up for a falling quarterback, but they're not going to be able to from 10 to 12 because we know the Giants don't trade back, right?

Dave Gellman doesn't believe in that. But the Cowboys and the Eagles probably have no interest in giving Washington the quarterback of the future. So they might have to pay a real price or hope that these other teams are back. I mean, the quarterback of their future hypothetically. Yeah. I mean, the head coach came out today and said that Jalen Hertz isn't the starter, and then came back and said that no one's a starter right now.

We haven't practiced. We haven't played rock-paper scissors. Yes. What a hell of a, hell of a few moments for the Eagles. Oh, my God. I hope that's how they pick. I hope one guy wants horn and one guy wants waddle. And they're just doing rock-paper-cissure.

And he doesn't determine who the pick is based on who wins rock paper scissors, but by who the most competitive guy is doing rock paper scissors. Yeah. What do you want there? Do you just want a guy screaming out like scissor and just like really making the scissor motion with his hands? I have no idea. I did see a hilarious tweet today that when Alabama had those four receivers and only

they were running like 11 personnel, they would just do rock paper scissors with each other to see who came off the field. So someone was like, well, I guess he's not. drafting Alabama receivers because they're willing to do rock paper, scissors for field time. But for this mock, I'm comfortable going. I lean J.C. Horn here. I think they're going to end up with J.C. Horn.

Yeah. My take on the rock paper, scissors thing was I honestly think it's smart because, all right, I don't think that's like a really accurate measure of a player's competitiveness, but it does test their tolerance for clown coaching, and that's going to be important in Philadelphia. That's, it's just clown coaching. Just absolute clown coaching. All right. So I don't know that we need to go in deep. Let's talk real quick about who you think the most likely teams to trade up for a quarterback are who's most likely to land that. We talked about Denver being, you know, quarterback needy. Carolina still is, in my opinion. I don't know where you stand on Sam Darnold. Patriots make a lot of sense.

the Bears? I mean, are they really rolling into this season with Andy Dalton? And then Washington, you mentioned as well? I heard the Bears love Mack Jones. And that's the quarterback that they would like to trade up for. And that one makes sense in terms of you can make an argument. He's the most pro-ready after the first two. And Ryan Pace probably feels like he's got to win this year. Otherwise, he's fired, right? And whenever you get desperate GMs, you have desperate moves. And who cares if you're mortgaging the future if you're not going to be there. So I think the bear is coming up makes some sense. I think Washington is going to struggle for those particular reasons where if you lose the 10

through 12 spot to trade up for, I think that's tough. And obviously the Patriots, I think, are a really strong, strong option to come up and get a quarterback as well. If you just, if you look at the way the Patriots spent money this offseason for the first time ever, it screams we think we're about to have a quarterback on a rookie contract. Makes a lot of sense. What about how many running backs do you think get drafted this year? Isn't there a prop out there like 0.5?

And you can bet that because I would want to hammer the over. In terms of in the first round? Yeah. Yeah. So that's minus 225 right now. Najee Harris is his prop has moved anywhere from 28 and a half to 30 and a half. It keeps fluctuating. The Steelers odds have dropped from plus 225 to plus 160 to draft a running back.

there's a lot of, there's starting to be a lot of smoke around the Steelers taking Najee Harris, who I do think ultimately does end up going round one. And then Javante Williams and Travis Ety Nguyen, I think both have a shot to go at the back half of the first round. Yeah, so I'm hearing most teams have at TN RB1, but it really seems clear the Steelers are in love with Najee Harris. So that all makes a lot of sense to me. I also heard Tampa Bay really likes Javante. It wouldn't shock me if there were three running backs drafted, though, of course, like,

analytics Twitter is going to hold their noses and guffaw and laugh. But I think that's, there's a, I feel like it's a lock for one running back, very likely for two and possibly even three. And then you don't see another running back drafted for another like two rounds. Yeah. I mean, you talk about tears in this class, right? It's Harris, E.T.M. and Williams. and then it's probably like, no thank you.

And I know people are going to talk about Gainwell and Carter and Hubbard and Trace Sermon, but these aren't really guys that NFL teams are going to get excited about. And we can yell and stomp our feet that running backs don't matter at all, but there's a lot of old school guys in the NFL and a lot of them care. And there are a few teams. You mentioned the Bucks. I think that's a great call. I think they're a sleeper team to take a running back.

Their team is so strong that they can make the case for. let's not pay, let's pay a premium for a non-premium position. Just because we think we have a bunch of dudes and, you know, another weapon is fantastic and we're going for a Super Bowl run. So who cares that it's a less valuable position when we have a great start is basically across the board. I mean, the other argument there is like also who are the fastest, what's the position to produce right away in the NFL where tight ends take two years,

wide receiver takes at least one year, maybe more. Running back's just like right out of their gates. That's who they are. And they sort of like descend from there in terms of their level of production. So you get an immediate contributor there. You don't pay them a lot. You'll get the extra year of eligibility in terms of their rookie contract. So yeah, don't pay running backs a big second contract.

But like it might even make more sense to take a running back in round one or round two than to give some aging. running back, a monster contract after his rookie contract ends. Yeah, I would rather take a running back in the first round than give a running back big money when they're 26 years old having played in the NFL for four years. Right, right. Good stuff all around. Who are the wide receivers you think go in round one? Well, there's definitely three locks, right? It's Chase, Smith. A Smith could have weighed 112 pounds today and he's going in round one. and Jalen Waddle.

I think Bateman is a near lock. Why? I've heard that he's wide receiver one on certain teams boards, which blows my mind. How you have him over Chase is, like I think if he's your wide receiver one, it's a great sign that it's time to fire someone in your scouting department. Yeah, does that hold true for time to fire someone from your staff at FtN?

Because Brett has Rashad Bateman, wide receiver one. Does he really? Yeah. Well, now I feel dumb because I'm not firing Brett because Brett's a beast. So now I'm a little worried. I love Bateman, but I just, I can't. I don't know how you put him over at Chase. I think he's going to go in round one.

And then there's a lot of guys that are fringe round one prospects in terms of just, even if you look at their props, like Tyrus Marshall is 27 and a half, Elijah Moore is 28 and a half, Rondell Morris, 32 and a half. So ultimately, I think five wide receivers will go because it's also, it's just a position that teams are going to want to take in today's NFL. And there's a lot of wide receiver and needy teams in the second half of the draft. So I think that's true, but I also think we could look at what we saw last year in a stack class where, oh, I mean, like these guys are great, but if T. Higgins is going to be a round two pick, Chase Claypool's going to be a round two pick, we can, you know,

wait, we can hold up, we could draft a different position and then go wide receiver in round two, round three. Maybe. You also left out Cadarious Tony, who Jim Nagy did it out a few days ago, is a round one lock. And when Jim Nagy says a guy's a round one lock, he's a round one lock. Yeah, when Jim Nagy says other things, though, sometimes we need to ignore them. Like culture is what wins championships in the NFL.

Good players do. But that's a different conversation. Yeah, Tony is another guy that could absolutely go in round one. I actually think what your point is very valid in terms of the deeper position. Sometimes it falls, you know, guys start to fall because teams are willing to passing a guy there because I think the guy in round two was not that far to drop off, right? And historically speaking, since 2016, second round wide receivers have far out produced first round wide receivers in the NFL.

I think one thing that's really interesting for me is that the class is really strong at slot. Right? So it might help a guy like Terris Marshall or help a guy like Rashab Beat and move up a little bit where it might hurt a guy like Elijah Moore or heard a guy like Rondown Moore with the team saying, well, there's a lot of more slot count in this draft and less so on the outside which helps statement and marshal all right well elliott this has been a lot of fun last question for you uh what are just some of your favorite bets that

we haven't touched on so far what are what are some of the bets that you personally have a lot of money invested in um i think j c horn first defender drafted it plus a thousand is extremely interesting I think the Tennessee Titans drafting defensive line with their first pick when their three most drafted players in mock drafts in the last 90 days are all defensive linemen. And that's including after they signed Bud DePri. They did lose Judevian Clowny. They were 31st in pressure rate last year, bottom four and sack rate.

The team can't get pressure on the quarterback. And you look at guys like Gregory Russo, Jalen Phillips, and Aziz Ojolari. they're all all their numbers are right around the titans pick at 22 so i think that one's very intriguing in terms of long shots um jett's first pick offensive line this team has mokai beckton and nothing else at 20 or second pick excuse me not first pick they're not taking penn a soul second um i think that's really intriguing in terms of not long shot bets i think mika parsons is not going top 15 i think he's going to fall that's one thing i've heard a lot is that his off-field stuff is

is bad. I think Bengals pick wide receiver right now at plus 170 on MGM is really attractive with everything

I've heard around Chase. I don't want to leave any out. I've got 57 picks on the draft. There's a lot of them. But those are a couple long shots. I really like J.C. Horn under 13 and a half.

I don't want to leave anything out, but those are definitely a few of my favorites. Oh, a couple other ones. Asante Samuel Jr. under 41 and a half. I think he's got a real shot to go in round one. Back in to round one, I think that's a really good value bet. And Taven Jenkins under 26 and a half. I've heard like 25 is his floor.

I don't think he gave up a sack last year at Oklahoma State. Teams view him is both a tackle and guard prospect. So those are those are a few props, few long shots that I really, really like. All right. Well, I love it. I appreciate you for coming on. And if anyone wants to read the other 87,000 props that you recommended and are probably going to hit on knowing you, where can be find your work?

All my draft work right now can be found on Ftmbetts.com. I'm also tweeting out all this kind of stuff all the time. You can follow me on Twitter at Elliott-Crist, E-L-I-O-T, C-R-R. R-I-S-T. Not the easiest name to spell, but it's, I'm pretty sure you guys can figure it out. I'm constantly tweeting about, you know, the draft. Scott's constantly telling me I need to, you know, go to bed later. It's a fun experience.

But, yeah, Scott, this is a blast, man. I appreciate you having made. Thanks for the opportunity. Yeah. No problem whatsoever. Are you doing anything for the NFL draft? If we did a live show, would you want to come on and get drunk with me and Graham? I'm doing something with FTM the first hour,

I could potentially come on after that and drink with you guys. That sounds awesome. Can't wait. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points Podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.