Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Franchise Focus: Atlanta Falcons

Episode Date: July 6, 2021

Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan), Tom Brolley (@TomBrolley), and Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) preview the Atlanta Falcons 2021 season in the companion podcast to the 2021 Franchise Focus piece on FantasyPoints.com. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast, brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Hello, everyone. Welcome to number two of our franchise focus series for 2021 here at FantasyPoint.com on Fantasy Points Podcast. My name is Joe Dolan, joining me as they did for yesterday's podcast. with the Arizona Cardinals are Tom Brawley at Tom Broley on Twitter and Grand Barfield at Grand Barfield on Twitter. They have fancy titles, but I'm not really sure what to call them right now.

So I'm just going to call them my pals and two of the best in the business. We're having fun, breaking down all 32 NFL teams. We will be continuing to do that throughout the month of July and maybe even into August. Maybe we'll publish a couple of these in a day just to get them out for July. But consider these kind of training camp season previews. The podcasts are a companion piece to our full, like three, four thousand word monster breakdowns on the website. And Tom's also separate betting previews for those of you who are premium subscribers. We are going to have basically two full breakdowns for every single team, one from a fantasy perspective, one from a betting perspective.

You do not want to miss this. This is for subscribers only at fantasy points.com. But these podcasts are giving you a little bit of taste. And today, as we're going to keep moving on alphabetically, we're going to talk about the Atlanta Falcons, the team, certainly in transition, guys. I want to welcome you into the podcast, Tom and Graham, before we get going. How are you boys doing today? Pretty good.

Not much different from the first podcast we recorded. So still doing pretty well here. Yeah, not too bad. Time has moved on just a little. Just a tiny bit of time move. But hey, look, we want to get these out. we're recording these before the 4th of July weekend. I just hope everybody had a great 4th of July weekend.

And, you know, I always kind of viewed that mentally in my time in the industry, that that's the mental slitch, you know. By the time you're listening to this, Tom and I will be back from a golf trip and Bachelor party. I am not there. Hopefully we have a good time there, Joe. Hopefully we're not in too much pain after hitting somebody balls into the new river in Blacksburg, Virginia. Yeah, going to Blacksburg, Virginia this weekend.

And when you listen to this, I'll have already been there. So I'm talking from the past. But anyway, it's great to be with you guys here. And let's start with these Atlanta Falcons, a team in transition, obviously bringing in Arthur Smith as the new head coach. And certainly the biggest news is the trade of Julio Jones. These are odds courtesy of draft king's sportsbook. Seven and a half win total, equal juice minus 110 to both the over and the under.

They are plus 800 to win the NFC South, plus 240 to make the playoffs, minus 303 to miss. plus 2,500 to win the NFC championship, plus 6,000 to win the Super Bowl. Their win total moved from 7 in late March to 7 and a half. I wonder if that's going to fall. Yeah, that's a minus 143 in... Ah, yeah. So it's usually about 50 cents per half win. So it's kind of the same.

I still feel like the under on that 7.5, though. I kind of feel like that's... I don't know how you're feeling, Tom, but, yeah. No, no comment. Oh, yeah. Subscribers only. This is a bet, so. Right.

Tom has a bet on the Atlanta Falcons. And the Super Bowl went from plus 5,000 to plus 6,000. Obviously, taking into account, Tom, the Julio Jones news, the trade from to Tennessee. Now, look, it's kind of weird about the Julio thing because I was just looking at that. I wasn't looking at it from a financial perspective. I wasn't looking at it from the perspective of. How happy is Julio Jones? Because maybe he didn't want to play there anymore.

I think that's kind of evident. But from my perspective, they didn't draft quarterback. They had an opportunity to draft, you know, Fields and Mac Jones. And they didn't do so. And they're going with Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan thinks he's got good years left. Arthur Smith thinks Matt Ryan's got good years left. They drafted Kyle Pitts, who's going to come into play in this podcast.

My whole thought was, why wouldn't they just try to score a million points? and understand that you're in a division where New Orleans is in transition and Carolina is almost certainly not going to be a contender. Why don't you try to sneak into the playoffs? I just, they thought the situation was untenable. And that what leaves us guys with Calvin Ridley, set to soak up Graham all these targets. Oh, my God. Yeah.

Like, I'm with you on the, uh, with the plan. Like, you know, their defense is so devoid of talent right now. I mean, just they, they don't have, they don't really have a short or long term plan in the secondary right now. So, I mean, they're going to be in the same position they were in the last year where they are one of the bottom three secondaries in the league. And it's just going to lead them to throwing even more. But yeah, Calvin Ridley is just set up just so perfectly. I mean, he's, you know, we have a large enough sample of games the last two years to know that Ridley is an alpha wide receiver one with Julio out of the lineup. You know, I noted this in the, in the,

in our piece up on the site. But I mean, Ridley has just been such a stud finishing as a wide receiver 25, a weekly score against seven of eight games that Julio's missed over the last two years. Guys, he's, I mean, he's sneaking up in like the top 15, top 16 pick. He's going ahead of Devonthe Adams in some drafts. And honestly, I really don't have a problem with that. Yeah, there's just less question marks with him. I know I've put him ahead of DeAndre Hopkins in my rankings. And he's kind of in that wide receiver's four spot for me.

But I have no issue, given the uncertainty with, you know, Aaron Rogers and in Green Bay. And, you know, this was, even with Holyo Jones there last year, he smoked everybody in air yards last year. It was almost up over 1,900 yards. And Stefan Diggs was the next closest guy at 1,700 yards. And now we take Holyo Jones and his nine games out of that equation. We do add in Kyle Pitts, but, you know, he's going to be, you know, right there to defend that air yards championship and he could be the target share champion this year. He's going to be right up there with the elite at the position. So, you know, he's a guy that could, you know, I don't know if he'll get into the first

round, but he's going to be probably, I could see by the end of the summer being drafted right there with Stefan Diggs, you know, right behind Tyree Kill as that wide receiver three. Yeah, and obviously Devante Adams would be in that mix if we knew anything about Aaron Rogers, which we don't right now. And, you know, the thing with Rogers is, well, we'll get to that when we talk Green Bay. It's like, I wouldn't just be shocked if he's like, I'm done. You know, he has that ability to do that. Now let's talk about the other guy, the freak show, Kyle Pitts, tight end four in ADP right now.

He is not getting out of the fifth round of drafts. It's just not happening. You got to get into the fourth. I've seen him go at the end of the third. I mean, it's just, it's stupid at this point. That being said, the trade of Julio does open. just a massive opportunity here for somebody to step up. Kyle Pitts is the highest drafted tight end ever.

According to our Greg CoSell, he didn't have a discernible weakness on tape. The guy is a monster. I think he's going to have at or close to the greatest rookie season of all time. The question is, are you willing to pay for that, Graham? And I know, not to spoil it, but you're not really willing to pay for that. Yeah, we were talking about this, like, right when the Julio trade happened. And I think, you know, the thing, you mentioned it,

that we can project Pitts to have the best rookie tight-in season. And this same thing can be true. He's still not worth that mid-fifth round ADP. I tweeted this out on, you know, the July, today's July 1st. So I just tweeted out a couple days before this podcast will come out. But, you know, guys like Pitts is usurped Mark Andrews and T.J. Hawkinson in ADP. And just like six weeks ago, there was like a two to three round. gap between those three guys.

And his ADP, Pitts' ADP, is only going to continue to go up. He's a mid-fifth round pick right now. I think by the time training camp rolls around, and we get some, like, Twitter hype and some, you know, people see him in shorts and just bossing out on safeties. He's going to be a fourth round pick. And, man, like, you know, to pay off tight-in 4-80P, he's got to score around 13, 13-and-half fantasy points per game. And I just, man, I feel pretty confident that Mark Andrews and Hawkinson are going to round out.

that clip and they're going to, you know, round and a half later. I'm definitely not going to say he's not going to do it. But like, it's just, you know, there's really, like Robert Woods is going in that round. Man, like we're really going to. So stupid by the time the season's out, but yeah, especially. Yeah, like you're really going to take Pitts over Woods, C.D. Lamb. I'd go even further, like, Deontay Johnson and Tyler Lockett and Adam Thielen, like, I love that range for receiver two, receiver three is.

And I have not found myself interested in Pitts. Pretty much at all. I can see him just go in full Dennis Rodman and just boxing out a corner in the red zone in the preseason. And everybody's just like, I must have to come. He's going to start going over Darren Waller and George Kettle. Tom, where are you at on Pitts? Yeah, I got some shares of him early in the process. But, you know, I've been pretty out unless he sneaks into the, you know, 60 plus picks.

Maybe I'll all snipe a pick or two of them. Not going to happen. Yeah, I've got it's happening. I'm doing a bunch of festival drafts, so it happens every once in a while. But, you know, I've seen him as high, you know, as the late fourth round. It's happening a lot more frequently than it was,

you know, when the trade first happened a couple of weeks ago. So it's going to take, yeah, go ahead. No, I didn't, or just to that point, Tom, I didn't underdog draft last night. His ADP now is 44 overall on underdog. 44. Yeah, that's the same.

Yeah, I just, I can't. get there. I'm with you guys. I got to take the receivers there. It's, you know, we have, you know, maybe he is the guy. Maybe he is the unicorn out of this, all the rookie tight ends that we've had in the NFL history. But, you know, we've seen some good tight ends come into the league in the past. And, you know, Vernon Davis and, you know, guy that now he's going ahead of, T.J. Hawkins and a top 10 tight end. Eric Ebron was a top 10 type of pick whenever he was drafted. So we've seen. seen guys that have gone inside the top 10 at the position and, you know, have not lived up to expectations. I think he's going to be better than those guys. But fourth round good, I don't know if I'm willing to go there. And I am not willing to go there with my draft picks. I am not going to do that.

And I doubt that I'll be able to be doing that in August as well. Now, a guy he's actually going ahead of here is the starting running back for the Atlanta Falcons or the presumed starting running back for the Atlanta Falcons, which is intriguing. And I think this whole thing is interesting because we know where Arthur Smith comes from. He comes from a team that was the second run-heavyest team in the NFL behind the Baltimore Ravens the last two years in the Tennessee Titans and Derek Henry. Mike Davis is projected to be the starting running back for the Atlanta Falcons. Now, there could be trade market.

We always know there are some surprise cuts at that position. Atlanta could bring in some competition because they have skank behind Mike Davis right now. people are drafting undrafted rookie Javian Hawkins right now just on the off chance that he might be a James Robinson, even though he's not that body type. But, I mean, we're going to see this as it plays out. We saw Mike Davis put up some fantasy numbers in Carolina in Christian McCaffrey's stead last year. He's going off the board as RB 27. He is a fifth and sixth round pick, which is being called that RB Dead Zone that J.J. Zacharison and others have called it. We just talked about one of the dead zone running backs in Chase Edmonds.

Mike Davis is the other one. And I think Mike Davis, people view, is having maybe a better chance, Tom, to be a bell cow. But I'm not sure people are as excited about his talent as they are Chase Edmonds. At least I'm not. I think Edmonds might be a little bit more gifted than Davis. Davis has done some good things. He's done some bad things. He's had a weird career.

I've drafted him a few times early when he slipped into that sixth round. I don't know how much more I'm going to be drafting him, but I think the price is fair. I just feel like there's more exciting options where he's getting drafted. Yeah, I've been a lot more willing to take him in that sixth round over Chase Edmonds, just because I just think there's going to be more possibility there for volume.

And, you know, he's a pretty good fit for, you know, what Arthur Smith wants to do with the outside zone blocking schemes. And, you know, we touched on, they don't have any receivers either. you know, you know, Russell Gage is the number three guy here. So he's going to get catches in this passing game as well. 59 of them last year in Carolina. Yeah, I mean, there was no sort of efficiency. But he was, you know, I think the Falcons have a better offensive line than what the Panthers were trotting out there,

especially at tackle last year. So I've been a little bit more bullish on him. I think he can come through. And this is, you know, that's usually a spot where I'm looking at maybe taking a quarterback. or maybe one of those tight ends. And, you know, if the guys I'm looking at at those positions are kind of gone there, I'll consider Mike Davis in the early sixth round if I've gone with, like, you know, one running back in the first five rounds.

So he's definitely a guy I've been considering, you know, especially whenever, you know, I go, you know, with a, you know, if I have a top three or four pick and I go running back and I'm starting to look at running back in that late fifth, early sixth round. Yeah. Well, here's the way I'm thinking of Davis. like, you know, Todd Gurley was a late second, mainly like early to mid third round pick last year. And people were on that. And now you're getting a two. I wasn't. Yeah. Well, yeah. Okay, none of us were on that. Yeah. Other people were on that. Uh, we weren't. And now you're getting a two to three round discount on basically the same role. I mean, we didn't think Gurley was going to be like an 85% snapshot bell cow running back.

And even if they do, to Joe's point, even if they do bring in, you know, a guy that gets cut from camp, whomever it might be, you know, whatever. Like Mike Davis can still pay off his fifth, six-round ADP, you know, playing majority of the passing down snaps here. So, yeah, I'm kind of, I'm with, I think Tom, you nailed it. I mean, I'm way more in on Davis than Edmonds, even Gaskin. But I would much rather have Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray in the fifth round, that's for sure. Graham, and you're saying, yeah, it's a similar type of role to what Gurley had,

but this is a much better offense for, you know, what Mike Davis does. Oh, and Mike Davis is a better. player than Todd Gras. He's a better player, but you know, Dirk Cutter wanted to throw it all around the field and, you know, they're going to be much more committed to the run. You know, it just sets up way more better for, you know, way better for Mike David. And he's got, you're right. It's like a two to three round discount from what Todd Gurley was doing. And he's a much better player at this point in his career too. And I mean, but obviously Arthur Smith's going to throw the ball more. I mean, you can't, you can't just try out 20 carries a game. Yeah. Their defense. Their defense.

That's why force him to do that. They have to, yeah, he's going to have to change his colors. Yeah, I mean, it's going to be fascinating to watch this team. It's like, you know, they changed course this off season. Obviously, you bring in Fontno, you trade Julio, you sign, you bring Arthur Smith in, but it seems like they're just kind of in this weird window between we kind of want to contend, but we know we can't contend. I never know what to do with those teams.

It's a reboot instead of a rebuild. Yeah, they're kind of like in between. I mean, it's almost like they're going to see how, you know, the first two or three months of this season goes, what Matt Ryan has left in the tank. And then they're going to base their decisions, you know, next offseason when they have more, you know, cat flexibility. And, you know, they can have a little bit more options on what to do with Matt Ryan because that contract was pretty prohibitive to move this off season. Yeah, that's, that's why they didn't take Fields or Lance, man. They're in purgatory with Ryan's contract. He's like, you know, the Eagles ate all that money.

They ate over like $30 million to trade Wentz. The Falcons would have had to eat like $40 million to trade Ryan, which just wasn't in the cards for them, especially with Julio's contract. Yeah. They're just kind of in that weird purgatory right now. Yeah, well, we'll see if Arthur Smith can get him out of that purgatory. He did a hell of a job with the Tennessee Titans.

Guys, it has been fun talking about the Arizona Cardinals and the Atlanta Falcons on these first two days of the fantasy points. franchise focus series here in 2021. We're going to join you tomorrow to talk Baltimore Ravens, who obviously have a lot going on. I want to remind everybody that you can go to the website and check out the full written breakdowns. I'm not even going to tell you how much stuff's in them.

If you want to know, listen to the Arizona podcast, but we have our entire staff contributing to these massive team previews. It has been awesome. You guys are going to love what you see if you're a subscriber at Fantasy Points. Standard subscribers get the franchise focus series. If you're a premium subscriber, you get Tom Brawley's betting preview series, Mr. 8 and O on win totals last year.

You can see exactly where he is putting his money this year when it comes to each of these teams. For Tom Brawley, at Tom Broly on Twitter, for Graham Barfield, at Grand Barfield on Twitter, and for Fantasy Points at Fantasy PTS on Twitter, my name is Joe Dolan at FG underscore Dolan on Twitter, rather. This has been the Atlanta Falcons preview of the 2020. one franchise focus series here at fantasy points.com and the fantasy points podcast. Thanks everybody. We'll talk to you tomorrow.

Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoints.com.