Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Franchise Focus: Baltimore Ravens

Episode Date: July 7, 2021

Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan), Tom Brolley (@TomBrolley), and Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) preview the Baltimore Ravens 2021 season in the companion podcast to the 2021 Franchise Focus piece on FantasyPoints.com. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Hi, everyone. Welcome back to the franchise focus series here at the Fantasy Points Podcast and FantasyPoint.com. My name is Joe Dolan. And as they joined me for the first two in this wonderful 2021 edition, they're back. Grant Barfield and Tom Brawley. They have some sort of title at FantasyPoints.com.

We're not going to get into the nitty-gritty. But we've been presenting 32 teams. We're going to do 32 teams in a number of weeks. We're going to do a podcast for each team. We're going to do an article for each team. We are working diligently to make sure you learn everything there is to learn about all 32 NFL teams as we head into the preseason and the most important draft season. the most important fantasy football season of all time. John Hanson says it every year.

He's like, it is the biggest year for fantasy football in history. And I think people are really fired up this year because I definitely believe Graham and Tom that last year, you know, maybe your work league, you didn't play in your work league because people weren't in the office. Maybe you're with your buddies. You kept pushing it off because, well, the virus, you know, I don't know if there's going to be a season. And it's only a $20 league. so maybe, you know, we'll wait until 2021. I guarantee you so many people,

and maybe you are one of these people, are really excited to get back into things. And I encourage everybody to go to FantasyPoints.com and subscribe to the best value in fantasy football. Just this morning got an email from our developer, one of our developers of our Fantasy Points generator, implementing all kinds of new tools, just to make sure your two quarterback leagues,

your tight-end premium leagues like the FFPC, that generator is tuned and fine-tuned for all of those leagues. I was fooling around with it, literally right before the podcast. Today, guys, we're going to be talking Baltimore Ravens. So we're going to pick out one or two things to talk about with this team. We're going to have like a 5,000 word article for every single team in the NFL. We obviously can't talk everything here on this 15, 20-minute podcast. But certainly the Baltimore Ravens are a very intriguing team.

Graham and Tom, I know you guys want to talk about this. Tom, we'll start with you. The Baltimore Ravens probably were a little bit of a disappointment for like the first three months of last year. And then they kind of reverted back to what works. And I think that's the big question. What was this offense going to look like here in 2021? Yeah, the still very high expectations for the team. You know, the win total sitting at 10 and a half, sitting at minus 154. AFC North, you know, of course, the Steelers kind of not came out of nowhere, but, you know, they kind of won the division with their hot start.

But they're plus 125 favorites to win that. Playoffs, minus 303 to make the playoffs again. And the AFC championship, they're the second or third favorite with the bills. Another team will be doing this week at plus 650. And to win the Super Bowl, they're sitting at plus 1,400. So their odds have actually gone down a little bit since the start of the off season. The win totals was at 11 minus 125 in March, now down to 10.5. It's kind of similar with the 50 cent, you know, change for about a half a win.

And plus 1,200 in early February to plus 1,400. And I think a lot of that has to do with the Cleveland Browns, you know, having a early strong off season. More competition in the AFC North. So I don't think it's really a slight against what the Ravens did this off season, but it's more of what's going on in that division. They also traded Orlando Brown, by the way, which, you know, like, I mean, you said that isn't really a half a win move because the juice is so heavy to the over on the 10 and and half. But they did trade Orlando Brown.

And, you know, they improved an AFC rival, theoretically, an AFC rival. in Kansas City in doing so. So maybe that's one of the reasons for the Super Bowl odds dipping. Graham, Baltimore's offense last year, it was a tale of, I don't want to say two halves. It was more like a tale of two thirds and then one third. Lamar Jackson was quite frankly, last year, one of these single worst values in fantasy football for like three months of the season. But if you manage to withstand that, then he was a league winner down the stretch for you.

When Greg Roman and that offense went back to kind of what works. worked last year. They had said they wanted to open it up, open up the passing game. Graham, it just frankly did not work last year. And there was a lot of reasons to blame for that. Most notably, the pandemic and Marquise Brown having a case of the dropses. Yeah, this is something Kaplan has been talking to us about, you know, for like a year now that the Ravens wanted to kind of open everything up last year. But because of the pandemic and because of everything and that kind of weird offseason, they couldn't do it. I also think, you know, something else that I looked into for, you know, last year's team.

is like their strength of schedule in the first half of last year was pretty easy. They opened up with three pretty easy defenses. They played the Texans in week two. And then it kind of tightened back up in the middle of the year. And then over their final like seven or eight games, it was it was back to super easy. So I think I think that has something to do with it. You know, like they played Washington in the middle of the year. They played the Steelers twice.

They'll play the Colts twice or Colts once in the middle of the year. Then it got easier in the back half. So I think that's a part of the reason Lamar and Hollis and Andrews kind of picked it up a little bit more. But man, you know, I think we talked about this during our powwow series back in May. Like if they even tick up their pass rate by like 1 to 2 percent, that's going to elevate the, I think, the floor and the ceiling of this offense in general. Lamar getting a couple more attempts, getting a couple more attempts to Hollywood and Andrews

and Bateman and Watkins and all these guys is going to be huge. And Lamar will scramble some more. So I don't know. I'm really excited to kind of. to buy the dip on this Ravens offense. And I've been drafting a ton of Lamar in like the fifth, sixth round of bestball drafts. I was totally out on Lamar Jackson last year as a second, early third round pick.

That worked out. I do not regret that at all. But I mean, he's kind of slipped like, again, his positional ADP right now, I'm looking at he's a late fourth, early fifth round pick. I've seen him slip even close to the sixth that times. That fifth round is really where I've started looking at quarterbacks this year. Not to say I'm going to take. one there. But if Lamar, Kyler, Josh Allen are in that range, I'm certainly considering them.

I'm drafting a ton of Lamar this year. I like the way he finished the year. But here's the thing, though, like, oh, they're going to expand the passing. Let's be frank here. They have to be smart. Lamar Jackson is never going to be Aaron Rogers. He's just not going to be that player as a pocket passer. He doesn't have the arm talent. He's just much better as a runner. He's an elite running quarterback it's going to be part of this offense. So my let's continue with the run game Tom Brawley. A guy who I actually didn't draft until really until last night I didn't an underdog draft and I took J.K. Dobbins in the third round. I think that's the right spot for him. I've just mostly been kind of drafting wide receivers in that range. I think it's fair though. We have them projected RB 16. His

positional ADP is RB 17. Obviously no Mark ingram this year. He finished great down the stretch Tom. What's your read on J.K. Dobbins? Yeah, he's, I've had a tough tie. I'm just worried about, you know, the number of catches he's going to get in this offense. You know, Lamar Jackson, you know, they might, you know, pass a little bit more, like Graham said, but Lamar Jackson's always going to tend to run, you know, if he has to. And Gus Edwards, they gave him a pretty hefty contract over the off season. Two years, I think it was $10 million.

Yeah, they love him, man. Yeah, they didn't really have to do it. So I thought that was a pretty big sign that Gus Edwards is going to be a pretty big factor in this backfield. So he's kind of been a guy I've slipped down a little bit in my rankings. Like a guy like Clyde Edwards-Hillard was probably below him for me at the beginning of the off season. But now I've moved him above J.K. Dobbins. But, you know, on the betting side, he has an interesting prop. He's plus 3,100 to lead the league.

Liggin rushing yards. I think that might be an interesting little bet. You know, he probably needs Edwards to get banged up a bit and miss a little bit of time. But this is one of the best rushing attacks in the league. And if Dobbins is able to get a decent chunk of the carries, we know Ingram is out of the mix here. It really has been no indication that a third back might be in the mix here. Justice Hill was a guy that was, you know, pretty highly thought of a couple of years. years ago, but hasn't really panned out. So it looks like it's going to be a two-man backfield.

So at plus 3,100, if, you know, Gus Edwards gets banged up a little bit and there's a little bit of a path to, you know, 15 to 20 plus carries a game for J.K. Dobbins. Maybe that isn't too shabby of a bet there at longer odds there in this offense. The biggest question I have for Dobbins is his touchdown upside. Like, how many carries is Edwards going to get inside the five? Because last year Lamar only had three carries inside the five last year. They just did not use him at all really near the goal line. It's not like Josh Allen or or Cam Newton or anything like that. Lamar has just not been a guy that gets like a high volume of carry. So if it's truly like a 50-50 split inside the five when the Ravens getting close, I think that's, I think that's a good thing for Dobbins because he's only going to be sharing with Edwards in the goal line situation. Whereas with the bills, it's going to be typically three backs or something, you know, technically three backs if you include Allen as a back.

Yeah, so, yeah, I mean, let's talk. Go ahead, Tom, go ahead. No, I was just, and I remember this, you know, early on in our rankings process. John, you know, had Dobbins' touchdowns pretty high, and Edwards is, you know, down at like three, three or four there. And that's something that we've adjusted as we've gone along here this off season. I, you know, I think we have, you know, Edwards sitting at close to five touchdowns, rushing touchdowns now. And we've lowered Dobbins as a little bit. So, yeah, Dobbins is kind of losing on both ends.

But, you know, if it does go more his way, maybe he really breaks through. But that's why he's kind of a really tough pick right now in that, like, early to mid-third round. He needs some things to go break his way. But if they do, he does have some upside. But big question marks right there. Let's talk about the passing game and the receivers because the whole passing game has kind of gone down in value. Not to talk about everybody individually, but just digging into the Hollywood Brown stats, I understand how frustrating he was.

It feels like the market is kind of overcorrected on him because of his drops and the fact that they drafted Bateman. But neither Bateman nor Sammy Watkins is expensive. And that's kind of what makes Lamar Jackson one of my favorite best ball picks, Graham, because it is very easy to stack him with at least one of his receivers, if not multiple receivers here. because Brown, Bateman, Watkins, they are also affordable. And even Andrews at tight end six with a sixth, seventh round ADP, man, I mean, that is, this is not something where it's like Josh Allen. If you are really into stacking, and we'll talk about this on the Buffalo podcast, you're kind of behind the eight ball because Stefan Diggs goes ahead of Josh Allen.

So if Stefan Diggs goes ahead of Allen, then you're waiting until the dregs where you're drafted in Gabe Davis and, and Sanders and, you know, Beasley. And you're like, all right, none of these guys are very exciting, but I want some level of a stack. Lamar's pretty damn easy to stack, man. Yeah, he is. And, you know, this offense has been just so, so efficient. I mean, Lamar over the last two years has a touchdown rate.

You know, that's touchdowns divided by pass attempts of 8%. That's, you know, like best out of all quarterbacks, better than the homes, better even the Tannahill, who's super efficient. And, you know, the thing is, is like, none of these guys are going to have huge, like, yardage ceilings, especially since, you know, they brought in Bateman Walkins. I think Talon Wallace is going to play a little bit, too. But, yeah, I mean, there's just so much touchdown upside with this offense because it has been so efficient. And, you know, like I mentioned earlier, if they increase pass rate, their pass rate by just, like, a little, just a little bit.

That's all we need. All these guys have really nice ceilings on a weekly level. and, you know, with the best bowl, and you just don't have, you don't have to predict when it's going to happen. You know, all of them are going to have their spiked weeks. And, yeah, getting Hollywood in like the ninth round this year, getting Watkins late, Wallace late, even Bateman in the, you know, kind of early late rounds in like the 12th round. I've been finding myself doing that quite a bit, too, Joe. Yeah, Lamar is easily the, of the top five there. He's the guy that you can get with his top receiver.

I've done plenty of drafts where, you know, I'm picking that late. fifth round, early sixth round. And I'm able to get like a Lamar, Mark Andrews, right around, you know, 60 picks in. You think about it. The other guys, you know, Kyler Murray, D'Andre Hopkins is going multiple rounds before him. Patrick Mahomes, you know, Kelsey and Tyrick Hill are going multiple rounds before him. Stefan Diggs, same deal. And, you know, like Dak Prescott, Murray Cooper's going a couple rounds before him.

So it's, I have found it to be the easiest of the big five there to stack up with Mark Andrews. and Lamar Jackson. So, and later in the draft, like you said, you know, there were reports coming out of training camp, but, you know, Sandy Watkins was looking really great with Lamar Jackson. He's free. He's absolutely free. Everybody loves Sammy Watkins, but he's an 18th round pick. I mean, like, like, at some point, if he's looking good, he's going to start the year

opposite Marquise Brown. Well, last, I don't know. But I would think, I would think Watkins, Bateman, and Brown are all. all going to play a lot early in season. That'll be the rotation. I think we'll see Watkins in the slot, too. And we know Lamar loves thrown over the middle of the field. Yeah, do you think there's one receiver that, you know, sees 85, 90% of the snaps? Or do you, you know, they're going to play a lot of 12 personnel.

They're going to have a lot of sets with two receivers on the field. I think they're going to kind of rotate all three of them. You know, Marquise Brown. That's why I have been kind of a little bit lower on Marquise Brown this, this off season, just because I think they're going to use almost like a three-man. rotation, you know, whenever they're playing with two receivers on the field. I don't really know if there's going to be one receiver that's, you know, seeing 85 plus percent of the snaps.

I definitely don't think so. And like, here's the thing about Mark Andrews. What's funny. We're like, oh, he's the number one receiver here. This, you know what this stat means in the NFL, but it just goes to show you how much the Ravens play 12 personnel. Mark Andrews has started only 9 of 45 career games. He's been on the field for the first snap, only 9.

times. Their starting tight end is actually Nick Boyle. And so they play a lot of 12 personnel. So I agree with you, Tom. Like, I don't think any of those are, I might be surprised if any of those receivers consistently top 80% of the snaps, quite frankly. Yeah, they're going to rotate all these guys. Mark Andrews, I think played over like 75% of the snaps like once or twice last year. Yeah, they're going to do the same thing. And Andrews plays the slot a ton and like, I don't know. I just think getting getting Bateman is so huge for this offense because he can. play all three spots. You know, you can play in the boundaries, you can play in the slot, you can move them around. Getting that extra movable chess pieces is going to be awesome for this attack. I mean, just look, you know, this is one thing that we talk about all the time is like, you know, I don't really give too much credence to like beat reports. Like, okay, great, everybody looks good in camping shorts. Follow the moves. And the Ravens are telling us with their moves that they're going to try to throw a little bit more by adding all these, you know, all these receivers that can play different spots. Yeah. Adam Kaplan's been all over that all,

you know, since last summer as well. Yeah, he's been telling us, and it was just the pandemic and, you know, everything, you know, of course they had the, you know, largest breakout in American sports there with their COVID-19 situation. So there was a lot of factors that worked against them last year. They're going to try like hell to do it again this season.

And I think they know they have the personnel to actually do it this year as well. They were trying out Des Bryant at points last year. They weren't very, you know, satisfied with the, you know, the receivers behind Marquis Brown. So I think they're pretty confident in what they have, you know, with Sammy Walkins and Tyler Wallace and Rashad Bateman added this off scene. They're going to be more confident to get more three wide receiver sets on the field. That'll wrap it up here for the 2021 franchise focus podcast on the Baltimore Ravens. Again, we have so much more available at the website for standard subscribers and premium subscribers. but you can get these articles if you're a standard subscriber at fantasy points.com.

Make sure you go and sign up. We have everything. We've got pace. We've got betting basics. We've got Scott Barrett's fantasy strength of schedule in there. Wes Huber's been doing a sickeningly good job breaking down the scheme. You know, I said, Wes, when you do this, just write a paragraph or so. He's writing like six paragraphs for both offense and defensive schemes.

And John Hansen's given his personalized thoughts on how he's drafting this. team. These franchise focus articles are monsters and they will get you ready for your 2021 fantasy football season. Follow Tom Brolly on Twitter at Tom Broly. Follow Graham Barfield on Twitter at Graham Barfield. Follow me on Twitter at FG underscore Dolan and make sure you follow the site on Twitter at Fantasy PTS. Thank you for listening to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. We'll be back tomorrow with a breakdown of the Buffalo Bills. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe,

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