Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Franchise Focus: Chicago Bears

Episode Date: July 12, 2021

Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan), Tom Brolley (@TomBrolley), and Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) preview the Chicago Bears 2021 season in the companion podcast to the 2021 Franchise Focus piece on FantasyPoints.com. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points Podcast, brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome back to the Metamusel of podcasts here at the Fantasy Points podcast and our franchise focus. We dubbed that at the end of last week's final show against the Carolina Panthers. We are once a day and we are regular for the month of July here, breaking down the franchise focus series, one podcast, one article for all 32 teams in the NFL here. I am Joe Dolan, he's Tom Brawley, he's Graham Barfield.

We did five teams last week. We're doing five teams this week. And then spoiler alert, five teams the week after that. As we prepare for the 2021 NFL season, we're going to cover all 32 NFL teams here on this podcast. But most importantly, in the. article series up at fantasy points.com where you want to go and get all the information you could possibly ingest about these teams as and from a fantasy perspective. And also secondary from a betting perspective, if you subscribe to our betting perspective, you get Tom Broly's

betting previews for all 32 NFL teams. You will be overloaded with content. I guarantee you that. Today's team guys is the Chicago Bears. Graham and Tom, how are we doing? Graham, I'll ask you first just so we're not talking all over each other how was your weekend it's not too bad you know i just shudder to think what the mirror lacks of fantasy podcasts would be like what would that what would that entail all 32 at once just drink through a water or fire hose there yeah yeah and i'm by all 32 at once i mean you all 32 are playing all at once it's really not pretty at all Tom uh Tom how are you been my friend still regular yeah i mean it's time to get regular again here. You know, the weekend, you can get a little hand with the booze and, you know, grilling, you know, eating out. You know, so it's time to get regular again here this week. Second week, you know, we were remarking the last podcast, how it's only been five, but yeah, we're checking on, you know, into the second week here, you know, only five more to go, five and a half, you know, so we're starting to see a little bit of that finish line, not really, but we'll get there eventually.

Eventually we will get there. That's the way it goes. The Chicago Bears, guys, they eventually want to get back to the Super Bowl, and it doesn't look like it's in the cards for them this year. But despite Ryan Pace, the general manager being back, Matt Nagy, the coach being back, Mitchell Tribisky's gone, Justin Fields is in, and it feels like this fan base is energized.

Now, the markets still don't think the Bears are going to be able to play with the big boys this year. seven and a half's the win total plus 100 to the over so maybe if you like justin fields think he's going to start more games well maybe you get that plus money on the over plus 350 to win the nfc north plus eight uh 180 to make the playoffs minus 225 to miss plus 2200 to win the nfc plus 5,000 to win the super bowl uh tom the wind total moved ever so slightly from minus 121 at seven wins to seven to seven and a half plus 100 following the drafting of Justin Fields. I mean, there were probably betters out there, though, that would rather that minus money at seven wins was still out there on the board because, you know, if Aaron Rogers does come back to Green Bay, you know, you still have those two big dogs in this division, while everybody I think is going to beat up on Detroit.

Yeah, I don't keep track of the division odds, but I believe those also shrunk a little bit just because of the uncertainty, you know, it's a plus 350 now because the uncertainty with Rogers and the Lions getting obviously a lot worse this offseason. So, you know, there's a little bit of excitement with Justin Fields coming to town. And, you know, the rest of the division is looking mighty mediocre this year, especially if Aaron, you know, if Jordan Love is the quarterback there, this is literally anybody's division.

So if you have any feelings about, you know, what's going to happen with Rogers plus 350, you know, it's not the longest odds. you know, it's not the worst odds to get right now if you're thinking that, you know, Rogers might be out of town there in Green Bay. Yeah, and now keep in mind, guys, that Matt Nagy, Ryan Pace, they have every incentive to win every single game they possibly can this year. And if Andy Dalton is not delivering, they are going to put Justin Fields in. It is not a matter of, I mean, barring Andy Dalton coming out and like opening 6 and 0,

they are, Justin Fields is playing as, much as possible this year, Graham. My question to you is, when do you think he plays? We know what Greg CoSell thinks. Greg CoSell thinks he should play week one. How are you drafting this team for fantasy? And that's what we're going to do. The entire focus of this podcast is going to be on how Justin Fields relates to this

team for fantasy, because I think everybody, Graham, anticipates he's going to play at some point. Yeah, the only way the Bears go 6 and 0 with Dalton is if they somehow start playing against like Mighty Might football team. I guess or something. Like, dude, they're going to, I think I tweeted this out. Like, Dalton might start week one, but Justin Fields will be the starter by week two. I mean, this is the draft that Pace and Nagy needed to have, right?

I mean, they needed to solve quarterback long term. And, you know, credit words do, Pace, you know, historically messed up the Trubisky draft. There's no doubt about that. And there's no real reason to talk about it. We know, he nailed it now. I mean, he got Fields. He moved up, got Fields.

He got Tevin Jenkins. got him some help along the offensive line. So he killed two birds with one stone, you know, and one draft. I just got to think, man. They're going to unleash Fields. And this is going to be a totally different offense from the Bears that we've seen in recent years here. And I think we're going to see Fields really, really early on. And for fantasy, he has all the upside we're looking for.

He's a late round target because nobody thinks he's going to start week one. So you get the discount there. And obviously, he's got the Konami Code rushing aspect that everybody wants. Yeah, I'm pissed. I just missed out on. him in the eighth round of a Scott Fishball. I couldn't believe he lasted that long, and it's, it's probably because of, I don't know, do you guys actually think that Pace and Nagy are, you know, being 100, you know, 100% honest when they're saying that, you know, Andy Dalton's our guy,

you know, we're going into the season. I feel like it's a little bit of BS, but I think it's affecting where he's being drafted right now. I've seen it in my best ball drafts as well. He's starting to slide, and he was pretty regularly off the board. 150, 160 picks in. And now I'll see him every once in a while, slip into like the 170s. And I still think he's an absolute still at that range. I think he's a steel 150, 160 with the upside that he brings with his legs.

And as a downfield passer as well, he's got, you know, this isn't a great receiving core, but, you know, you have one of the best receivers in football and Allen Robinson. And, you know, two potentially ascending guys in Dornnell Moody and Cool Commets. I think this passing game has some potential, especially if he's able to win this job relatively early. If he blows it away in the preseason, I just don't see how they can go too far into the year with Andy. You know, Andy Dalton's been a joke, basically the last four years. I mean, you know, he was terrible down in Dallas, submarine that, you know, the best receiving core in football last year.

He was terrible his last three years in Cincinnati. He hasn't averaged above seven yards an attempt since 2016, I believe. So it just doesn't make much sense. I don't see him as any kind of an upgrade over, even Nick Fuller. So it doesn't make much sense to be all in on this guy that just hasn't shown much the last four years. I mean, can you imagine, remember guys, this year we're getting preseason football. Can you imagine Eddie Dalton coming out? playing, I mean, frankly, like Andy Dalton, and even if Fields is out there against third stringers,

because you know damn well what they're going to do. They're going to say, oh, Nick's the backup, you know, like that they're going to say, because Falls is still there. He's under contract. They're going to go, oh, Nick, you know, he's a veteran. He's the backup, and Justin Fields is going to be third string quarterback, and then he's going to truck some 245 pound defensive tackle who's a ninth stringer, and the fans are going to go nuts.

And it's, guys, it's just not tenable. this is not a coaching staff that has the ability to be patient. It's not like, you know, we talked about Carolina last week. Sam Darnold's their quarterback. Matt Ruhl's not going anywhere, even if Sam Darnold's terrible. They pass on Justin Fields, but they have a long-term plan. The only plan for the Chicago Bears is to win as many games as possible this year. And I just can't imagine they're going to view Andy Dalton as the guy to do that.

And if Andy Dalton is the guy to do that, they're in way more trouble than it already looked. Yeah, and let's not forget, too, like Nagy is kind of a, I won't say he's a run first coach, but he's definitely, like, leaned more run heavy. And they did a lot of like zone read stuff. You know, Trubisky's best year was the year that they did a ton of like design reads, not a ton relatively, but still a good amount of like design zone read stuff with Trubisky. And Trubisky is actually a pretty good scrambler and pretty good in terms of his vision on reading those plays.

Now he's got the ultimate cheat code in Justin Fields, who came strictly from his zone read offense in Ohio. state i just yeah i'm with you i think it's laughable yeah yeah the offense kind of took off at the i i feel like they tried to try to get tried to get trabisky into this box you know as a pocket type of passer and you know that just wasn't the player he was and the offense took off you know in the final five or six weeks david montgomery you know was the rb two down that stretch and it was because they let you know they played to trabisky strengths as a runner and that's why i i i could see some very good thing happening for this Bears team in this division? Because I think Nagy's going to go into this season knowing, as you said, Joe, this is his last chance. I need to play to my quarterback

strengths instead of doing what he's done the last two years and trying to make Mitchell Chubisky a pocket pass. I don't think they're going to go into this season thinking that way with Justin Fields. Before we wrap up the pot, I think we should talk about how this affects David Montgomery, who was a fantasy stud league winning type of guy down the stretch last year. And guys, he's really not being drafted that way. I mean, he's kind of a late third, early fourth round pick. He is very affordable for a guy who was a league-winning running back down the stretch. And, you know, if Justin Fields is the quarterback here, Graham, they're going to be a run-first team.

That's not to say Justin Fields can't throw the ball, but you always see coaches default to rookie quarterbacks. They want the run game to be a focus. And Justin Fields can contribute to that run game. We know running backs have had a lot of success in all. offenses where the quarterback is mobile. Yeah, you might lose out on some touchdowns here, but it opens up some running lanes. David Montgomery's performance down the stretch last year was absolutely spectacular. He looked like a really good bell cow kind of running back.

I know he's a boring pick, but is he a boring pick, is my question. Yeah, he did look like a bell cow last year. And I think there's a couple of things, like a couple bits of context that are needed. Like obviously, Tariq Cohen only played three games last year. And the Bears did not have anybody behind Montgomery. After Cohen left for the whole season over Montgomery's final 13 games, he led all running backs and snap rate. He just did not come off the field. So he had an A plus plus role because the passing down back and an offense got hurt. Plus, he had like the easiest schedule down the stretch like of any fantasy back. I mean, they just played a bunch of garbage, you know, five straight terrible run defenses from week 12 to week 16.

he smashed. I mean, he did what a good back should do. He, you know, he wrecked in those games, averaged over 25 fantasy points per game. But yeah, now you get Cohen back in the mix. They added Damien Williams, who obviously is a holdover from Nagy's previous regime and, not regime, but, you know, previous coaching tenure in Kansas City. He's going to know the offense. I have, I don't know if I've drafted David Montgomery once. I think I've done over, like, I've done a bunch of basketball drafts. I really don't think I've drafted Montgomery once over, It's kind of a wide receiver range for me. Exactly, man.

It's the Cowboys receivers. It's DJ Moore, who we just talked about on the last podcast. I mean, there's a lot to like in that range. Just the way on building my teams, I think Montgomery's floor is much lower than his ADP indicates, and I think there's just better players around him, you know, going around him right now. Yeah, I guess the one, a couple positives you can say from Montgomery is maybe, you know, Maggie saw what he could do at the end of last year. And, you know, this has got, you know, we thought he might be a volume,

type of back coming out of Iowa State. You know, maybe that's one thing that could be going in his favor. And, you know, they, they know that they need to feed him the ball a little bit more. And, you know, there's no guarantee, Tariq Cohen and, you know, it has the same explosiveness. You know, because he's, that's all he is is, you know, make you miss kind of guy. And you see him, you know, if he's lost any kind of step off that ACL, ACL injury. And Damien Williams is coming off, you know, completely rested season. season. We'll see if he has the same kind of magic, you know, going to a completely different

offerings without Patrick Mahomes, really spreading out the defense. So I'm with you guys. Montgomery, his price has gotten a little bit more palatable recently. I've seen him start to slip into the mid-fourth round. I think a lot of backs are starting to slip a little bit here. I think the receivers are coming up the board a little bit. So he's become more palatable, but I'm in the market for receivers in that range. But, you know, I do think there are some outcomes where we could see him kind of maintain that low-end RB1 range. I think it's going to probably have to come from Nagy, though, if he really wants him to be on the field for 60 to 70 percent of the snaps. Yeah, and especially since the offense, or at least Montgomery got better when Cohen was out last year. Like,

nothing against Tariq Cohen. I mean, the guy got hurt, and I hope he's healthy. But, I mean, does he have the same role coming back? And I think that's a valid question. Guys, Before we move on, I want to start with you, Tom. Where would you rank Justin Fields? If Matt Nagy were to call into the Metamusel of podcast right now and tell you he's starting week one, where would you rank him at quarterback? Oh, boy. Probably that low-end QB-1, you know, high-end QB2 range.

I mean, I currently have like, I guess like Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow, I guess right in that range. and I probably would draft, I'm thinking about, I probably draft them at least over Trevor Lawrence at this point. Burrow, I'm a little, you know, I'm feeling a little better about, but definitely in that range. You know, he's been in that 150, 160 range. You know, I think his ADP would probably go up, you know,

into that 120, 130 range, I would think. Yeah, and that's why. Where would you recommend, Graham? Yeah, and we'll have the same discussion way down the line with Trey Lance, but yeah, same thing. It's like, I would much rather have. have Fields and Lance over Lawrence just because we know they're going to run a ton. And, you know, you could even make a conversation, you know,

make it a conversation around like Stafford and Dan Hill. I mean, it's directly in that like low QB1 range. Yeah. And I think that's why there's some value here. Like if there's anybody who is like this year's, everybody's asking, well, who's this year's Josh Allen? Well, I mean, I think the only one who kind of neatly fits into that range is Jalen hurts and everybody's already presumed he's the next Josh Allen and his ADP is top 10 at the

quarterback position. You know, like you still, you have to look for guys who fit a lot of that profile and those guys would end up being Justin Fields, Trey Lance, and to a lesser extent, Daniel Jones, somebody who will talk about down the line. So I just think that's a really fascinating discussion to have, not one to have on this podcast though. With how sharp the QB drafting has gotten in recent years, I'm still surprised that they're, you know, know where they are. I mean, it's not like we're asking, you know, you're not drafting fields and Lance where they are to be your week one starter. Like, yeah, I mean, they're your QB2s. Yeah, draft them and stash them or, you know, if you're in basketball leagues, draft them,

you know, if you especially if you select a high end guy, draft them and you get the 12 weeks, you know, however long it takes them to start. But they have potential to have, you know, those spike weeks, those top five weeks that we're looking for at the position. So, You know, the market has gotten a lot sharper, but I think they're whiffing on this one. You know, just looking at our top 12 quarterbacks before we move on, like half of them, if not more than half of them, have double-digit buy week rounds. So, like, for instance, if you draft Ryan Tannahill as your QB1 and, you know, his buy week's week 13. Like, you know, you're playing Ryan Tannahill for the most part early in the season anyway. you know, I'd rather have Justin Fields, who you reasonably probably have projected behind somebody like Carson Wentz or Matt Ryan just because he's not guaranteed to start.

But I'd rather have that guy, you know, as my backup quarterback because of the upside. So, yeah, that's a really interesting point that you made there, Tom. And the good thing real quick on Fields, like, you have the benefit of information. You know, if you drafted Allen Robinson in the third, you drafted Mooney in the 10th, whatever. Like, you can just easily make that stack. Yeah, Kemp's going right around that same range. So if you whiff on, you know, if you whiff on those two guys, you can go a quarterback tight end, right? Right in that like 13th, 14th, round right there with Fields and Commets.

So, yeah, it's pretty easy to build a stack with those guys. I think this is a team that fans are pretty excited about, quite frankly, Chicago Bears fans. You know, they're not expected to win a whole lot this year. At least the markets don't think so. But Justin Fields, I think, is kind of given a boost to a franchise who's, I mean, best quarterback of the Super Bowl era is Jay Cutler. I mean, no Bears fans aren't punched. in the face and they have to watch

through October or something. Oh, that would feel so bad. I mean, it's kind of what Bears fans have come to expect, but things might be looking up in Chicago, and it makes them a pretty interesting fantasy team as well. That's going to wrap up this podcast. That was Tom Brawley, at Tom Brawley on Twitter. At Graham

Barfield on Twitter. I'm Joe Dolan at FG underscore Dolan on Twitter. We'll be back later this week. We're going to be talking Cincinnati. We're going to be talking Cleveland. We're going to be talking some other teams in the Ds. I think Dallas and Detroit are going to be talked about this week. We'll be there. And I hope you guys are with us as well. Once a day, every day. Until we get all 32 NFL teams to hell by the time we get done,

they might expand the damn league. So maybe we'll have a 33rd team to talk about. I hope everybody enjoys the rest of their week. And I hope you enjoy that week with us here on the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe rate and review. Go to FantasyPoint.com and subscribe there as well. you will not regret it. Thank you, everybody, and we'll talk to you tomorrow. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform, and come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.