Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Franchise Focus: Cincinnati Bengals

Episode Date: July 13, 2021

Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan), Tom Brolley (@TomBrolley), and Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) preview the Cincinnati Bengals 2021 season in the companion podcast to the 2021 Franchise Focus piece on FantasyPoints.com. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome back, everyone, to the Franchise Focus podcast series here at the Fantasy Points Podcast and Fantasy Points.com. My name is Joe Dolan with Tom Broly and Graham Barfield. as we continue to jaunder, is that a word? We continue to jaunt our way around the NFL as we break down.

A combination of jaunt and meander. Yeah, jaunder. I'm getting jaundiced thinking about all these podcasts we got to. But, yeah, we're meandering our way around the NFL as we continue our journey through all 32 NFL teams. And today we're going to be discussing the Cincinnati Bengals. I want to remind everybody to go to fantasy points. to check out the franchise-focused articles. They are massive with all kinds of information, player profiles, betting information, pace

information, John Hanson's thoughts on the teams. And we're releasing them daily with these accompanying podcasts. And as if you've been listening to the podcast, you know, it's been about 15, 20 minutes. We talk about kind of one or two main things for each NFL team. And today's breakdown is of the Cincinnati Bengals guys. Cincinnati, we're looking at a win total of six and a half, plus 2,000 to win the AFC North, plus 475 to make the playoffs, plus 5,000 to win the AFC, and plus 10,000 to win the Super Bowl.

Obviously, this is one of the most competitive divisions in all of the NFL. And Cincinnati, though very talented, there is a lot of competition in this division and a lot of questions with Cincinnati, and that has to do, guys. And Tom will start with you with a lot of the injuries and Joe Burrow coming back from the injury. I don't think we know what Zach Taylor is at this point, and that's contributing to this six and a half win total. Yeah, and their odds, you know, the money has kind of gone towards the under here in the last couple of months. And I think they thought, you know, they would improve a little bit more in the offseason. They lost, you know, some key pieces, some key defensive pieces like William Jackson and Carl Lawson and Gino Ackin.

So they did lose some bigger pieces. I think the draft was also a little disappointing. They got Jamar Chase, who's arguably one of the best wide receiver prospects to come out here in recent years. But kind of a questionable pick in the second round with Jackson Carmen. I think they kind of, you know, the tackle market, the offensive level. line market went a little quicker than they thought at the start of the second round. They even trade it back, I believe. I think they thought that there would be more bodies still available there.

Or maybe they just really like Jackson Carmen and the rest of the public didn't really. But it's just a roster that didn't necessarily improve too much. But yeah, the big question this year is what Joe Burrough is going to have coming back from a, it wasn't just an ACL injury. That was a major, major injury there. So it was a gruesome look and play against Washington back in week 10 there last season. So all indications are that it looks like he's going to be ready for the start of the season. But certainly some question marks there with the offensive line.

And they threw the ball a ton last year. They probably have to change up just their offensive approach a little bit to not leave him hanging out there so much. Yeah, and Graham, that's going to lead me to you because I think the big question, question for this team for fantasy. Well, I mean, there's, there's multiple because this is actually overall an appealing team for fantasy. You've got three wide receivers who are all getting drafted within like the first seven rounds of drafts. But I think a lot of people are fed up with Joe Mixon. There was the constant at the end. Last year he had like the early season foot injury and he was like questionable every game and then just never played again.

Gio Bernard is gone though and Joe Mixon is locked into the second round. We have. have coaches talking about how they're really excited to get Joe Mixing the ball. They want the ball in his hands. They want to give him a bell cow kind of role. How much should we be trusting that? And are we making mistakes drafting Joe Mixon in the second round? No, I don't think it's a mistake at all. I think this is the best, I don't know, I think this is the best price we've gotten

mixing at and redraft in the last couple of years. I mean, you know, the thing with Mixin is like he's been, last year was really the first year he absolutely killed you. but that was because of an injury that the Bengals clearly mishandled right but in the previous years you know, Mixon was never really like killing your teams. He paid off his ADP, but it's just like he hasn't hit that ceiling. He hasn't hit that like top five, top six ceiling. Last year, the workload was there, man. It was there. Like in his six starts, he had 20 or more opportunities that's attempts and targets five times. The other game, he didn't have the 20 or more opportunities. He got 19.

And Scott has a really cool metric that breaks down expected fantasy points. And there were three backs that scored that had more expected fantasy points based on their role than mixing. And they were Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Camara. He was actually tied with Camara, by the way. Yeah, there you go. I mean, so literally like the role was there, man. It's just, you know, he kind of got unlucky in the touchdown department, obviously got hurt. And now you're getting a round discount on him.

I actually just did a best ball draft a couple nights ago, got the fourth pick, I believe, or the third pick. Got Derek Henry with that pick of the three or four spot and then got Nixon in the late second round. So, I mean, the sentiment and the community is just kind of out on him. And for that reason, I've just been buying whenever I can. He's like my favorite second round running back right now. Yeah, and I know you've been a mixing fan. Oh, he and I share a birthday. How about that?

Happy birthday, Joe, on July 24th. So, Graham, you've been a mixing fan, I mean, of his tape since he came out of school, just the kind of talent that he has. But, you know, I think people almost have like a distorted view of mixing in a way because, like, oh, everybody's like, oh, my God, you know, this guy's been a bum for years. And, you know, Graham, I'm looking at the second half of the 2019 season. And I remember the beginning of that year, as somebody who drafted Nixon, I think it was either the first or second round. turn in 2019. I do remember that being a pretty rough go of it. But after he ran 10 times for two yards against Jacksonville in week seven of 2019,

I'm looking at Joe Mixed in here, Graham and Tom, and he, towards the end of the season, I mean, this guy was a legitimate league winner. I'm talking in the final nine games of 2019, he either had 100 yards from scrimmage, scored a touchdown, or both in seven of nine games. He had 883 rushing yards at 4.6 yards per pop over the final nine games of 2019. And remember, this was with Gio Bernard in Cincinnati. So with Gio Bernard gone, I mean, Mixing was one of the best receivers. Graham, you have charted coming out of college in your yard's creative metric.

I think there's a lot of room for growth here for mixing. Yeah, and taking it back even a year further in like 2018, he missed a couple games early in that year. I think he missed like week three and week four came back. and he averaged like over 100 yards of scrimmage, like average, you know, five yards per carry. I mean, he was awesome for fantasy. It's just kind of been like he hasn't been able to put it all together. And I think now that that Gio's gone, it's huge. I mean, even last year, Zach Taylor were starting to give Mixon more of the passing down work.

It was like a, you know, it was like a, you know, two to, for every, you know, three passing downs, Mixing got two of them, Bernard got one, which is a big, a big difference. And previously in Mixon's career, it was mainly Bernard and Mixon's splitting. So, you know, no Bernard. Basically, they're only passing down back they have right now is Chris Evans back from Michigan, who was, you know, Michigan's top receiving back in 2018. And he missed some time and he played a little bit last year. But yeah, I just, I think everything just sets up so well for Mixon.

It just comes down to, like, you know, can this offensive line keep, you know, keep, you know, keep, you know, keep, you know, keep burrow upright enough for this offense to be efficient and can they open holes for mixing consistently? Because that's that's right now the biggest question mark for me. Tom, where are you drafting mixing? Yeah, they did do some things to make you feel a little bit better about the offense. It's still an abomination, but they brought in Riley Reef, who is at least a serviceable, you know, player that you can play at tackle.

Jonah Williams, you would think, you know, it was essentially his rookie season last year. You know, Jackson Carmen, they're probably going to play at guard here. So, you know, there's there's at least some signs that the offensive line should at least be improved off of last year. It can't get much worse than it was. So, yeah, I'm with you, Graham. Late second round is a place where you can easily get him. You know, he's going after, you know, sometimes after Noaji Harris. And Antonio Gibson has been a guy that's been creeping up draft boards.

So you can start with a running back in your first, you know, a top three, top four pick and potentially get Joe Mixin towards the back end of the second round. I have no problems with that. He's clearly one of the best talents at the position. And this is the best situation that he's clearly been in to start his career. And I think that they're going to, you know, it's just a bunch of nobody. It's Chris Evans. It's Samaji Piron.

It's Trevion Williams. You know, guys that just have no track record of, you know, doing anything in the league here. You know, say what you want about Giovanni Bernard, but, you know, he's been a good veteran back here. You know, he's been able to step in, you know, as, you know, Mixon's handcuff and, you know, handle 15 to 20 touches per game and, you know,

do a serviceable job. So the depth behind him is as thin as it's ever been, and the offensive line is actually a little bit going to be at least slightly improved from last year. The guy really needs Joe Burrow to be held. here to produce. I mean, I think the whole offense in general, but Tyler Boyd, guys, who was a fantasy stud with Joe Burrow at quarterback last year with a high floor and was a complete zero when Brandon Allen took over. Guys, I want to talk about, Graham, we'll start with you,

how you're drafting these receivers. But just looking at the ADP, I have T. Higgins right now is wide receiver 24. Jamar Chase's wide receiver 25. And guys, that has been flip-flopping in recent weeks. I expect Chase to jump ahead of that. Both of those guys are kind of late fifth, early six-round picks. And then I go all the way to like the late seventh, early eighth, wide receiver 36, Tyler Boyd. I am not against drafting Graham any of these wide receivers, but I'm going to have a lot of Tyler Boyd at that price

because I think his role is immutable. He is going to play in the slot, and they do not have a solid tight end option to take targets away from him. Yeah, and that's kind of what they did last year too. I mean, you know, they had Higgins and Green out why when they go in their 12 personnel, $2. tight-in sets and Boyd will be off the field. So his role in terms of snaps and routes and everything is not going to change that much.

But obviously the biggest thing is Jamar Chase. And, you know, you draft Jamar Chase at five of Raw. That's going to be Burroughs guy. I think all three have, you know, target share projections somewhere in between like the 17 to 21% range. And I wrote about this in the article. You can check out way more about their tendencies. But the Bengals, man, like there were. On pace for just like incredible passing numbers last year.

I do think like Tom mentioned earlier, I do think that's going to come down a bit now that Mixin's healthy. And Burroughs coming off the injury, especially early in the year. But man, I mean, it's just set up so well for all three of them. And honestly, I'm with you. I like Boyd at cost. And Higgins and Chase at like the fifth, six round. You can get them as your wide receiver two or three. It's pretty much perfect for all three.

You kind of get that discount because I think drafters just in general aren't, They kind of really don't know, like, who the best is outside. You know, it's Higgins and Chase at the top and then Boyd, like a round or two later. But you're still getting a discount on what could be, you know, pretty big ceilings for all three. Yeah, I think Boyd is, you know, appropriately priced behind those other two guys. That's because, you know, they're the guys on the perimeter. They're going to get, you know, more of the big plays, more of the touchdown potential. But Boyd, I mean, he's seventh round.

It's tough. And he's, you know, he's sliding a bit. I've seen him around in the eighth round. You know, he was essentially averaging seven catches per game when Joe Burrow was in the line-up through the first 10 weeks of the season. And, you know, it probably is going to dip here a little bit with A.J. Green off the field and Jamar Chase substituted in. But he's a solid PPR option.

I've been preferring Chase over Higgins, which, you know, I was a big Higgins guy last year. I drafted him in some dynasty leagues. And, you know, he was excellent for me. you know, last year. But just a little bit of that unknown with Chase. And, you know, the last time we saw him, he was dominating the college game at LSU. And, you know, he does have a little bit of that chemistry with Joe Burrow having played on that 2019 with him at LSU. So I've been leaning more Chase over Higgins, but I have no issue going after all three of these receivers. I think their ADPs are pretty fair. And I think it is going to be a pretty even distribution of targets. You know,

in this offense. I have no issue with all three of them. Apparently there was a report that they want the target distribution to be pretty even. And frankly, guys, it was last year. Now, this is the thing for Jamar Chase. And if you're wondering, oh, there's only one football to go around here, but consider this. A.J. Green left behind 104 targets. Now, A.J. Green, especially when you take into account volume, was the worst wide receiver in football last year. Let me call to mind Scott Barrett's expected fantasy points metric, which we talked about a little bit earlier. He averaged just 7.0 fantasy points per game on those 104 targets. Now, his expected average was 12.1 fantasy points per game on that target volume.

By far, the worst negative difference in the NFL among players with 10 or more games played. Zach Hertz was next at minus 3.7, not even in the same ballpark as AJ Green. So that is how bad Green was. look, if Jamar Chase just gets Green's target share and performs like a league average player, he's going to be like wide receiver 40. His ADP's wide receiver 25. Here's the difference, guys. Jamar Chase isn't a league average talent. So we're projecting him to outproduce that. I think you can make a case, in my opinion, for any of these three wide receivers in 80P. Yeah, and they fit any team built. That's the greatest part. It's like, you know, you have upside with Chase and Higgins, like Tom said,

with, you know, in the touchdown department on the deeper throws and then Boyd's, you know, really safe. And he's not going to, he's not going to cost you an arm and a leg. And, you know, I just think that range, I was thinking about this this morning, just I was doing a draft, like a slow draft on the NFFC. And I was sitting in the sixth round and Chase went one pick ahead of me. And I was, I was bummed about it. But like, that range after Chase and Higgins go off the board gets really flat, really fast. Like there's just a big grouping of guys that you could take in between round six through eight. And I think that's kind of like the delineation point.

Once you get around wide receiver 25 to wide receiver 26, Chase and Higgins are those two guys because they still have both of those guys have wide receiver one upside on a very, very high volume passing team. Yeah, I just think it's a fascinating team. Now, of course, this all ties into Joe Burrow being healthy. And guys, I don't want, I mean, we're not going to dive into that deeply on this podcast.

We don't have the time to. But I mean, I know Edwin, Dr. Edmund Porras from Fantasy Points, has said, you know, hey, it's not a guarantee. You know, like, let's be honest here. And let's watch Joe Burrow in training camp. He has been working out in OTAs. And then there's the news that Joe Burrow, one of the positive tradeoffs from the fact that he couldn't really move around is he apparently worked on his upper body strength and improved

his arm strength. So let's just hope the team can keep Joe Burrow upright because it is going to dictate exactly what we can do. Obviously, it is a big drop off to Brandon Allen. So that'll wrap up our breakdown of the Cincinnati Bengals here on the franchise focus podcast at fantasypoints.com. Remember to sign up for fantasy points.com. Go check out those franchise focus articles. Signing up for a free account gets you a 24-hour trial of the website. And then obviously I think we're confident that you're going to want to subscribe to read all of these articles.

Get cheat sheets. Use our fantasy points generator tool, which is a great draft assist tool. We've been putting a ton of improvements into that this off season. There is plenty more to come over the course of the month of July and August as we get into your fantasy draft. So for Tom Broley, at Tom Broley on Twitter, he's Graham Barfield, at Graham Barfield on Twitter. And I'm Joe Dolan at FDohen on Twitter. Follow the site on Twitter at FantasyPTS. Thank you for joining us for this edition of the Fantasy Points Podcast franchise focus series.

It has been wonderful talking to you, and we will be back tomorrow to talk Cleveland Browns. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points Podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform, and come join the roster at fantasypoints.com.