Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Franchise Focus: Cleveland Browns

Episode Date: July 14, 2021

Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan), Tom Brolley (@TomBrolley), and Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) preview the Cleveland Browns 2021 season in the companion podcast to the 2021 Franchise Focus piece on FantasyPoints.com. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast, brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. You know, it's really, like, amazing to think about what the life of a Cleveland Browns fan is like. And we're talking Cleveland Browns right now on the fantasy points. franchise focus podcast series. That is a lot of Fs. Fantasy Footpoint. I was saying that at the end of our last podcast, I'm like, wow, that's a lot of

F's, a lot of Fs, a lot of Fs. Say that three times fast. I probably should have tried to pronounce this out loud before we got the series up there. But it is the franchise focus podcast series. And guys, I was, by the way, that's Tom Brawley and Graham Barfield. And as we continue our journey around the NFL breaking down all 32 NFL teams. And today we're talking about the Cleveland Browns. on the podcast. And I was doing our little intro for the franchise focus article. And then I just realized, like, the level of heartbreak that a Browns fan has.

Like, they saw their team leave and then come back. And then it was another 20 years before they won a playoff game. They have done it. The Cleveland Browns have broken through. They advanced to the divisional round last year, winning a wildcar playoff game against Hated Pittsburgh, who had, like, knocked them out of the playoffs the last three times they made the playoffs. Their last win came with Belichick as the head coach.

I mean, it's just unbelievable what the fans of this franchise have been through. But now you're going into 2021 and you're all optimistic. Let's look at the totals, Tom, 10 and a half, plus 100 to the over, plus 145 to win the AFC North, minus 25 to make the playoffs, minus odds on the Cleveland Browns to make the playoffs, plus 750 to win the AFC, plus 1,600 to win the Super Bowl. team's win total has jumped from nine and a half in late March to 10 and a half. And their Super Bowl odds have fallen from plus 2200 in February to plus 1600. Good Lord Tom Brawley, the Cleveland Browns are one of the favorites in the

AFC to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. It's a weird time, isn't it? In the AFC North, it's happening here. I think everybody got like, it was a little bit of premature a couple of years ago. You know, going into Baker Mayfield's second season, everybody was, jumping on the bandwagon, but this one actually feels pretty legitimate. And a lot of it has to do with the offseason they had. And, you know, they pick up, you know, some big-time players in John Johnson and Troy Hill and the secondary.

Blake Jackson, they get for the defensive line, DeViam Clowney. Debatable what he has in the tank. But they made some nice off-season moves. They killed him in the draft. They got Greg Newsom who fell a little bit to 26. The Joker, I'm not even going to try to pronounce his name. There you go. Do we say it again there, Joe?

Jeremiah Owusu Coramella. Yes, him. He fell to the second round. And Anthony Schwartz is a very interesting pick that they got in the third round for a little speed on the perimeter. So a lot of positive vibes for this franchise, and even in the playoffs last year to the end. They put up the 28 points against the Steelers in the first, the wild card game in the first quarter. they were hanging right there with, you know, with the Chiefs, couldn't pull out the game. So this is, this is an ascending team that is coming off a strong off season.

So it's not, you know, it's no question that they're better than they were last year. And, you know, they're right neck and neck with the Ravens right now. And, you know, the win totals, the odds and with the Super Bowl odds. Yeah, so, Graham, I mean, here's the problem I've been having with the Cleveland Browns, though. And looking at this team from an overall perspective, vis-a-vis a fantasy perspective, it's a tougher team for me for fantasy because, you know, the ball just goes everywhere. You know they're going to run it, but there's concern about Nick Chubb because he might not have a role in the passing game. As good as he, I mean, like I've said, a couple of times you watch Nick Chub and pound for pound,

you just think he's best running back in football when you watch the guy. But Kareem, you know, is involved in the passing game. Odell Beckham's been a massive disappointment ever since he's strapped on the pads in Cleveland. Jarvis Landry, I think he's probably a decent value at wide receiver 43, but really, it's not a great fantasy team. No, it's not. And what's, you know, what, like what changes it here is the Browns last year with Stefansky, they went incredibly run heavy. I mean, they were top eight and run rate in all three game situations that are tracked. So when the game was within a score, when the team was ahead and when the

Browns were behind. They were still like top five, top six and run rate in all of those situations. I mean, this team is centered around Chubb and hunt and then the play action game off of that. I don't really see that changing all that much. And, you know, last year, Jarvis Landry was basically useless when Beckham was healthy. You know, he averaged, you know, over 14 fantasy points per game when when Beckham was in the lineup, or out of the lineup, excuse me. But yeah, I mean, both of those guys are going in the eighth, ninth round right now. I mean, Beckham Beckham goes in like the six or seven.

He's kind of come up a little bit. But, you know, Landry's in the eighth and ninth round. I just, I think you nailed it. I think it's Chubb. You can, you know, get Hunt as your RB2 or RB3 and the fifth or six.

But, you know, even then, you know the ceiling is limited because Chub is so damn good and he's going to play a ton. Yeah, I just, it's a really hard team to draft. I have been finding myself taking more Baker Mayfield than usual, just to kind of get exposure to all of these guys.

Because I think, you know, if the offense, does well, he's going to be throwing touchdowns. Yeah, he's a guy I really, I just have not drafted much. I just, I just never see him, you know, really racking up the numbers in this offense. I do think it revolves all around Chubb and Hunt in this rushing attack. You know, his odds have been plummeted in the MVP market as well, you know, down the plus 3,300.

I mean, not plummet, you know, they're getting shorter. Yeah, I mean, people are betting him off and, you know, just because he's, going to be the quarterback on a pretty good team here, but I still think at the end of the day, an MVP quarterback has to put up some sort of numbers. Maybe it will happen this year. I doubt it. I still think this is, you know, Stefansky wants to use him like a Kirk Cousins, you know, you know, manage, you know, just to take your shots when you can and have the offense run through the running game. So, you know, I would be more inclined to look at, you know, maybe props for, you know, Nick Chubb, his offensive player of the year is at plus 1600.

I kind of almost view him. You know, he's a lot like this offense, kind of like Derek Henry. You know, I kind of see him as the Derek Henry of this offense. And if they have a massive season, this season on offense, I think it's going to be a lot on Chubbs. So he's a guy that he's been climbing up my rankings here personally. I hate the drafting in the six to eight, six to eight, six to nine range.

You know, I just don't feel great about Taylor. feel great about Zeke. You know, and Chubb has kind of been speaking. Would you feel great if you got, would you feel great if you got Sequin? Like I did it eight last night, Tom. Well, that would be fantastic. I don't know. What drafts your end?

Geez, is that one? It was an underdog. It was an underdog puppy draft. Tom, you got to see this team. I posted it on Twitter. I sent it to Graham last night. It's basically my favorite team I've drafted so far. Just like in terms of like my shirt.

I mean, I just like in terms of, yeah, and you know what, and here's the funny thing about Berkeley. Edwin's made me feel better about Berkeley. I know. That article was fantastic. I've referenced that a few times. Barclay's just been, he was, you know, five or six in May, and now he's sloping to seven or eight. That's my guess too far here, but what is, is it just because they've been kind of mum on a timeline? I think that.

Yeah, because even. Tom, it was that article that came out, and it's from a great beat writer for the job. Giants. He's been with him for a long time, but he said they're going to bring on Barclay slowly. And it's like, okay, what does that mean? He's going to get 18 touches in week one instead of 23. Like, is that slowly? I mean, they don't really have anything else besides Devonte Booker. And as Edwin pointed out in his article, not again, we'll talk about this with the Giants, but as Edwin pointed out in his article about Seekwan Barcl, well, even in a documented example of a team bringing a player coming off an ACL along slowly, which was Jamal Charles a few years

ago, and he played like 27% of the snaps in week one, and he still had a huge season. So, I mean, you know, this is a marathon, not a sprint. And again, you have one extra game here for everybody to make an impact. Now, let me bring this full circle. Graham, let's talk to you. How are you treating this backfield for fantasy? Yeah, I've just, I last year, I, I don't, I've, I've gone back and forth on this so many times, like was fading chub a mistake?

Because, you know, he is certainly an outwired just like. like Derek Henry, you know, doesn't have a ton of passing down usage. And we all play in PPR league because that's the new standard. And I think at times we, we kind of over, overvalue the guys that are like the true passing down mavens and undervalue guys like Chubb and Henry. And Henry has corrected. Obviously, you know, he's locked in top three, top four. Yeah, he's different than Chubb, but I understand what you're saying.

Yeah, and it's just, it's tough because, like, Chubb was just a monster. He just had so many monster games last year. And like I mentioned earlier, I mean, they are a top five, top six team in run rate in all game situations. Their defense got better. Their defense is going to be even better this year. It's going to keep them, it's going to, in theory, give them even better game scripts to be even more run heavy. I just think this is the outlier team, man. I think, you know, Chubb, you can draft safely at the back end of that first round.

I mean, there's pathways where you can, you know, start your draft with, like, Chubb and Tyree Kill. you can start it with Chubb and Digg, so you can kind of have like a balanced or you can go running back, running back there and then hammer receivers to the rest of your draft. Chub is not necessarily a guy. I'm like, oh my God, I got to have if I'm drafting 10th overall or whatever. But, you know, unlike last year where I kind of had like almost no exposure to him, this year I've kind of corrected on that a little bit because there's so many different pathways that you can kind of like hedge against just in case Chubb, you know, does have like, you know, let's say he rushes for 1,200 yards, but only eight touchdowns. You know, that'll be a big difference between, you know, him finishing is the RBA and the RB 13. Yeah, he crushed me as well last year.

I didn't draft him all. He was a little cheaper as well last year, but I think, I think just watching, I was betting the props, his receiving props, a lot at the end of last year, and they were big time winners. Stefanski did go out of his way a little bit more at the end of the year to get him involved in the screen game. You know, it wasn't like staggering, but, you know, we're just hoping that he gets to like 30 catches. You know, that would be a great total.

Get the 30 catches. He's, you know, he does a lot with his catches because he's capable of, you know, taking a screen, you know, 60 yards to the house. So, you know, we're just looking to get that number up into that 30 range. You know, he's never going to be a 40 to 50 catch guy. He actually, the last eight games with the playoffs involved, he had more catches than Kareem Hunt. You know, if he can kind of keep it somewhat in the ballpark with Kareem Hunt, you know, I'll take that.

And Hunt's been a difficult guy for me. I do like his role. You know, he's kind of like that ultimate handcuff. But he also does have some standalone value because of his involvement in the passing game. And he is going to get carries. And this is going to be one of the best rushing offenses in the league. But his price has been, you know, just a little bit. too high for me. And it is in that kind of that dead zone for running backs. And that,

you know, that fifth round range is typically where I see him going off the board. So I, I'm going to probably be more out on Cream Hunt, but I do have, I have started to pick up some shares of Chubb in the late first round. Odell Beckham, guys, I always, look, we always say we shouldn't hold grudges in fantasy. And I think that's a really good rule to follow. But I have to admit, there have been times this year where I'm looking at somebody in the sixth round and my eyes just refuse to acknowledge Odell Beckham just based on how much he's burned us. But then, you know, when I take a step back and I take a deep breath and I look at this, Tom, I'm like, shit, man.

Odell Beckham's going at the end of the sixth round. I've got to pick up some shares of him there just, just in the off chance that he is 75% of what he once was, he is going to pay off that ADP in spades. I mean, like, it feels like an overcorrection here, and I need to start acknowledging that. Yeah, I'll let you do it. He's just a guy. I just have not seen it the last couple of years.

I mean, I know injuries have been a major factor, but at this point, I mean, are we positive that he can stay on the field and, you know, be a major contributor? I have my questions. I almost rather have Jarvis Landry, you know, a rounder. two later. I think he's kind of getting overlooked here a bit. His overall numbers looked kind of shitty from last year because of, you know, they had a really ugly stretch of games in the middle of a year where he just basically not did nothing. They had those three like wind and rain games all at all at Cleveland Stadium there. But he, you know, he started playing really well down the

stretch, got more involved with Baker. I'd much rather, you know, Landry's just, you know, he's not sexy. We talked about Tyler Boyd on our last podcast. He's going even later than Tyler Boyd. I'd much rather, you know, get my shares. He's, he's not going to have the blow up potential that Odell Beckham has, but I also like his price a little bit more. And I think there was, you know, there was some good signs of life for Travis Landry at the end of last season. I just, Joe, I don't think it's, I don't think it's bias at all. I think you're just in the back of your mind, you know that Beckham just doesn't have the upside he once did. You know, and he's coming off. the injury now. And he started to come up in price like we just talked about.

I put a, you know, like this stat kind of blew my mind, right? In the, you know, five years he was with the Giants from 14 to 18. Odell Beckham finishes a wide receiver two or better. That's top 24 in weekly scoring in 75% of his games. There's three quarters of his games. Over the last years with the Browns, that's shot down to 26%. He finishes a wide receiver two or better in 26% of the game. So not only it has the ceiling. been evaporated. His floor is gone. And now you mix in the fact he's coming off a major injury, extremely run first team. Landry looks better in the back half of last year. I think they're going to get Austin Hooper involved more. This is a 12 personnel team. Like we talked about goes through

Chub and Hunt. Like I just, I just don't see the ceiling for Odell Beckham. And like we just talked about in the previous podcast, Jamar Chase and T. Higgins, they sometimes slip into that six-round range. I'm taking those guys 10 times out of 10 over Odell Beckham. Yeah, I'll take them over O'Dell Beckham. I'm just saying, like, O'Dell Beckham is a lot more appealing at this price than he has been in years. Sure. Oh, yeah, for sure, yeah.

And he's a third round pick last year. Yeah, he's been severely overpriced for a long time. You know, he's at half the price that he was in recent years. So, yeah, I get you there. But, yeah, I just think Jarvis Landry is the better player at this point. You know, he was struggled early last year. He was coming through that hip injury. Like, he looked like a different player toward the end of the last year.

I think he's the number one receiver. So, you know, Odell Beckham coming off in knee injury. You know, he's been, you know, plagued by injuries the last couple of years. I mean, I just worry that he just doesn't have that same type of explosion. You know, that was what made him special, the explosiveness, the potential for big plays at the drop of a hat. And I just don't know if he's that same kind of player at this point. And I mean, it's reflected in his price a little bit. I still think it's a little too high for a guy that really hasn't shown it enough.

But, you know, at least he's more affordable than he's ever. been here, you know, since his rookie season. So the Cleveland Browns, guys, not really a great fantasy team. There's going to be production from somewhere. But you have questions about each and everybody at every position. But I think that's reflected in the ADP. So, you know, sharp players are going to find value here somewhere. Really an interesting team to talk to, especially as we contrast them with the team we broke

down on yesterday's podcast, their division rival to Cincinnati Bengals, who are a little bit easier to break down for fantasy and might have a little bit more appeal for fantasy, despite the teams being in different spots in their rebuilds in their contention windows. Cleveland's wide open, Cincinnati's still waiting for that to happen. It's been fun talking about some of these teams. We've breaking down three of the AFC North teams already. Pittsburgh's coming much later since we're doing these in alphabetical order. But I just want to keep everybody in mind that, you know, these franchise-focused podcast, that's not all there is. Go to FantasyPoint.com, sign up for a free 24-hour trial, read them at the website, and we're pretty sure you're going to subscribe because there is a lot of

great content. And you can also get Tom Brawley's betting previews for all 32 NFL teams with his leans, his best bets, 8 and O on win totals last year. That is not a lie. He went 8 and 0 on win totals. It is fact-checked. So follow him on Twitter at Tom Brawley. He's the star of the show. Follow Graham Barfield on Twitter at Graham Barfield. Follow me on Twitter at FG underscore Dolan and then follow the site on Twitter at FantasyPTS. This has been yet another edition of the 2021 franchise focus series here at the Fantasy Points Podcast, and we'll be back with more later this week. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points Podcast.

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