Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Franchise Focus: Dallas Cowboys

Episode Date: July 15, 2021

Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan), Tom Brolley (@TomBrolley), and Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) preview the Dallas Cowboys 2021 season in the companion podcast to the 2021 Franchise Focus piece on FantasyPoints.com. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome back to the franchise focus series here at FantasyPoint.com and the Fantasy Points podcast. My name is Joe Dolan. And as they've joined me for each and every franchise focus podcast so far, though, it won't be universal. We're going to change this up at some point. But I'm joined by Graham Barfield and Tom Brawley today. It's wonderful to be with those two guys talking today. Dallas Cowboys.

We are, we're now into our second, I think this is our second week. Tom and I are working ahead on these just to make sure where we have articles to come out the door. But this is our second week of podcasts and profiles. And guys, Dallas is a super interesting team that we're going to be getting to here. in a little bit. I want to welcome you guys into the podcast. Tom, what's going on today, man? We're going to be talking cowboys here. I guess a team that hope not a whole, well, they hope a lot changes from last year, but they hope the same contributors are going to be there to produce numbers this year. Yeah, it didn't take long for us to lose count, Joe. I remember you last week saying, oh, you know, we're already four in, you know, I'm sure we'll lose count at some point. And, you know, I think we're into the eighth one here if my numbers are correct. So, yeah, we've

We're quartered the way through them. We're already losing Calph, but, yeah, the Cowboys, you know, it's looking a lot like the same team we saw through the first four or five weeks of the season. They obviously spent a lot of resources on their defense. It was atrocious last year. I think the first six picks in the draft were spent on defense. The offense was pretty loaded last year. Now they just need to get the offensive line. and obviously Dak Prescott back and healthy.

And, you know, all signs kind of indicate that he's going to be ready to go for the opener. The season opener, they, of course, get the Buccaneers in the opening game of the year on Thursday night football. Not the best way to be welcome back for Dak Prescott, Graham. No, it's not. That front seven and that whole defense is awesome. But, yeah, getting Tyrant Smith back healthy is huge. Collins, too, I mean, just getting reasonably good tackle play. you know,

DAC obviously got hurt before their offensive, like really fell apart. But yeah, Tom, you mentioned it. This defense is kind of like the, I don't know, it's like the most important part to kind of analyze here because last year, Dallas in their first five games,

they trailed on 80% of their snaps. They gave up 20, 39, 38, 49, 49, and 34 points on defense. In those five games, that DAC was healthy. And they threw a ton because of it. I mean, they had no other. their option because they were just constantly getting their asses kicked on defense. DAC and company just had to throw a ton.

So I think this defense improving, you know, through the draft and through free agency, too. I mean, they added some nice pieces and free agency between Keanu and Neal and Carlos Watkins. I mean, they just needed everything. They needed depth. They needed pass rushers. You know, beginning, Michael Parsons is obviously huge to you. So, yeah, I just think, I think this Dallas is set right back up to compete, you know,

is one of the top two teams along with the football team and the NFC East. And I'm excited for pretty much everybody on this stuff of fantasy. Yeah, Dack was up. I mean, he was on pace to set an NFL record for passing yards last year before it got hurt. I mean, he was essentially, you know, on pace to throw for like 5,800 yards. And I think he had attempted basically 50 attempts per game through the first four weeks. So obviously they don't want to duplicate that. And, you know, might have been part of the reason why.

You know, he got hurt a little bit. You know, he's getting banged up and you drop back that many times. That's never good for your quarterback. So I'm sure they're going to look to tighten that up a little bit. And a lot of that has to do with tightening up that defense. Yeah. Tom, nine and a half wins with a little bit of juice to the under here is the season win total. And this is from Draft King's Sportsbook.

Plus 125 to win the NFC East, minus 150 to make the playoffs, plus $1,300 to win the NFC plus 2,500 to win the Super Bowl. So the lines here, Tom, have Dallas as probably a top third NFC team, but not exactly a favorite here. And I think a lot of that has to do, A, with Prescott coming back from injury, and the fact that the defense still likely isn't going to be very good. Yeah, and I mean, I personally myself have them more, you know, in that middle tier, maybe, you know, the beginning of the back half of the tier. of course, you know, the Cowboys are one of the heavily, you know,

public team. They get heavily bet on every week. In the off season, they get heavily bet. So, you know, everything with their lines is usually shaded a little bit high. You know, this is a team that was lined at nine and a half wins last year. So it's actually, you know, adding in the extra game there. They're kind of shaded a little bit below what they were expected last year. But once again, still the favorites here, you know, in a, a pretty weak NFC East, but, you know, I think the Giants and the football team have gotten

considerably better from last year. So it's going to make for an interesting NFC East. And plus 125, I don't know if there's a whole ton of value on a lot of these lines for them, but especially that one. You know, we can have a long discussion about that. We know why Deck Prescott was putting up huge numbers last year. It's because they had to throw basically every down. Graham has pointed that out pretty aggressively.

And look, they have the ability to throw it every down. But the guy I'm most interested in for fantasy, at least right now as it comes to the podcast, Graham, is Ezekiel Elliott. His ADP is RB6. He's going in the middle of the first round. It was a disappointing season. I mean, career lows in rushing yardage, yards per carry, yards per reception, and total touchdowns.

He tied a career high with six fumbles. He was the overall RB9 in total PPR. scoring, but RB 13 among players who played 10 or more games with 15.2 fantasy points per game. So he was more of like a middling RB2 than an RB1. However, when Dak Prescott was out there, he was the overall RB5 with 22.7 fantasy points per game. Graham, that would have ranked him third for the full season. And he scored six of his eight touchdowns in games Prescott started. So, I mean, after Dak Prescott, everything went bad after Prescott went down because not only did he go down, but the offensive line took big,

big hits. So this offense was just a shell of itself by the end of the season. Where are you at with Zeke, though? Because looking at the numbers here, and I wrote this profile, it just kept going and going because when I look at everything that went into his season and came out of his season, I literally think you can spin the statistics any way you want to when it comes to Zechiel Elliott. And you can paint any narrative from what happened last year, whether you're whether you're bullish or bearish on him. Yeah, here's the thing, though, everything went wrong. You know, Dak got hurt, offensive line got hurt,

and then Zeke was dealing with a bunch of injuries kind of in the middle of the year, and he ended up missing week 15 because of them. But the big thing, one of the big things for Zeke is his target share just went down when when Dak left the field. In those first five games, Zeke had 32 targets over his remaining 10. He had 39, and he had a 10 target game against the game. the Cardinals right after, that was the week after, DAC went down. So in his final nine games, he only had 29 targets.

That was a big thing. You know, Zika has always been kind of a compiler on the ground, but getting high, you know, being highly involved as a true workhorse back on the passing downs was, has been huge for his ceiling. So, you know, is the drop off in targets, drop off in just overall offensive quality from, from, you know, losing DAC too, you know, in their first five games, I mean, the Cowboys were top five, top six, and red zone drives per game. They fell down into the bottom six, bottom eight when DAC was out.

So, you know, you lose those targets, you lose those touchdown opportunities, and you, you know, you're running behind, you know, third and fourth strength tackles. And you're dealing with an ankle injury yourself. It was just kind of a, you know, a whole encompassing lost year for Zieg. That being said, you know, we just talked about it. Their defense is much better. Our offensive line is healthy, Dax back. you know, Zeeke is going seventh, eighth overall right now, like six, seven, eighth overall.

And in a normal year, we've been drafting Zieg at three or four. So I think there's a little bit of equity in that. And, you know, Zeek killed teams last year. So I think, you know, the market is just, you know, drafters are just kind of looking backwards when they should be looking forward. And Zieg is set up pretty much perfectly once again. And you're getting a little bit of a discount on him. Yeah, what's your plan with Zique, Tom? Yeah, I mean, I've warmed up to him.

As the summer has gone along here, you know, I was pretty cold on him. But like Graham is saying, there's so many indications that suggest that it should be better. You know, it was, you know, everything just came together. And it was a shitstorm, basically, for, you know, in the final 10 games of the year. So I do have more concerns. I mean, I feel like his play has been declining a bit over the last three years. Tony Pollard, you know, does bring some juice to this back. He makes a little bit more happen behind the offensive line.

And I am a little bit worried about the offensive line as well. It should be healthier, obviously, after last year. But it's a group that's getting a little bit older. Two best players, Martin and Smith are both over 30 now. Yeah, and that's, you know, you're going to be more prone to injuries at that point. You know, we're seeing, you saw it with my Steelers team last year. the, you know, the offensive line kind of fell apart last year because, you know, all their entire offensive line was in their 30s.

So, you know, I can't guarantee that this is an offensive line that's going to get back to that top five kind of shape that they've been in the, you know, the last, you know, before last year. I mean, that was routinely a top five type of unit. So, you know, there's factors that, you know, are pointing me the other way. I know you really broke it down. You broke down this team for the franchise. I think you're completely right. You can take it a bunch of different ways.

But I have gone more into Graham's camp here recently. You know, if he's available in that 6, 7, 8 range, I've been fine to myself taking him some because I don't want to be left out in the cold if he does get back to that 300 plus touches. And, you know, this offense is top five top of your offense again. You know, once again, we're not going to break down everything on here. If you've been listening to this podcast, you know, we, We rarely go over 20 minutes for a team. But obviously, if you're, I mean, just to hedge yourself, even if you're, even if you're bullish on Zeke and you don't get them in one particular draft, you know, there's a reasonable argument

to be made that Tony Pollard could be the best RV value on the board. Now, that also comes with the chance of Tony Pollard is a zero for fantasy if Ezekiel Elliott bounces back. But we saw Tony Pollard last year when Zeke was out with a hamstring injury, which, by the way, nagged him the entire year. And Tony Pollard took the bull by the horns. He had 132 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns in week 15 as the overall RB1 that week.

So we obviously know what kind of potential he has. Now, Tom, I want to talk just one more. How are you drafting these receivers? Because the way I'm looking at it as of right now, C.D. Lamb is going like about a round ahead of Amari Cooper on average. Now, there's going to be some drafts where Cooper goes ahead of Lamb. But I think people are starting to get a little bit concerned with Amari Cooper. Super's at offseason ankle injury.

There's questions as to whether he'll be ready for training camp. We'll find out just over a week here. Now, C.D. Lamb was, I mean, he was producing at a Justin Jefferson level, by the way, with Dak Prescott in the lineup. His 17.1 fantasy points per game over that span would have tied him with rookie Justin Jefferson for the full season. So fellow rookies get producing there. People want the hot new thing here.

They want CD Lamb over Amari Cooper. Tom, where are you with regards to that? I've had more Cooper than Lamb at this point. I did draft CD Lamb a bunch early, but his price has, you know, it's become pretty staggering at this point. He's starting to go in that range with, you know, the McLorins and the Allen Robinson's and, you know, the Michael Thomas is right in that middle, you know, early to middle third round, right around 30 to 35 picks in. And so, you know, his price has gotten pretty prohibitive for me, just because I think they're going to kind of spread it around and they're going to get Cooper. You know, Cooper should be, you know, back to full strength here. I would think by week one, you know, it sounds like, you know, it might not be 100% by the start of training camp. But, you know, I'm not going to let that, you know, necessarily dictate that, oh, man, I can't draft them. I know it's been a, you know, a couple year thing here with the ankle injuries. but, you know, I've been taking the Cooper discounts.

I've been getting him, you know, into the middle of the fourth round at this point. And, you know, I've had my fair share of Gallup as well. I mean, he's the cheapest of the bunch. He's so cheap. And he's, yeah, and he's going to be in a much better position here with Dak getting back on the field. He was kind of crushed by Andy Dalton's inability to get the ball down the field. And, you know, he should be in much better shape here. And his price hasn't been prohibitive at all.

So, you know, I probably. I probably feel the best about Lamb at this point, but his price is, you know, basically, you know, it's gotten to the point where it's a full round ahead of Cooper. And I just don't feel that much more strongly about him than Cooper. Graham, what's your plan of action here at this receiving group? Yeah, small teaser here, but I have a Best Baller's article coming out. I think it'll be like next week after this podcast comes out. But I have like a love letter from Michael Gallup in there. So I'll leave it at that. Gallup is. I'm right with Tom on that. Cooper and Lamb, it's one of those things where it's like, I felt this way last year.

I loved all the Cowboys receivers at cost. And, you know, yeah, Lamb is getting that like projection bump because people, you know, are, they know that that lamb was fantastic when Prescott was healthy and you're not really getting a discount off of that. But I think it's still a very fair price for Lamb. I think, you know, Cooper, I'm with Tom. I've been drafting Cooper just a little bit more. but I have, in bestball, I have pretty good amount of both of these guys. I just kind of want both. And back in May, it was like late May right before they were going into OCA's. Mike McCarthy was saying they're going to move Lamb around more. And he was in the slot like 75% of the time last year, 75, 80%. So getting Cooper involved a little bit more in the slots can help his projection too.

It'll help a lamb to kind of get outside a little bit more and get some deeper targets. But yeah, Gallup is the X. And then I think they'll rotate in Lamb and Cooper. and really I just won all three. Yeah, I've been trying to get all of them, you know, just because DAC has been a popular, you know, target of mine. And, you know, when you're drafting him in the fifth, six round, you know, you want to pair him with somebody.

So, you know, a lot of times I'll try to get Lamb or Cooper in that, you know, late third, early fourth round and get Dak. And if I whiff there, you know, and I still do get Dak in that fifth six round, Gallup, you know, I'll draft him a little bit earlier than he's been going. You know, he's been right around that 100 to 110 range. So I'll make sure to get him. I'll draft him around early. But I've been trying to get one of those.

Many of my teams, you know, probably about 75% of my teams are probably going to have one of these Cowboys receivers on them. That's the draft plan this year. It's just every draft, make sure you get a Cowboys receiver. Doesn't know where it is, but just get one of them. So, Graham, I'm actually going to, like you said, 75% of CD Lamb in the slot. According to, now, now keep in mind, there's different data sources, like different charting services. We like the guys at Sports Info Solutions, but according to Sports Info Solutions, they charted CD Lamb as running 437 of his 480 routes from the slot. That's 91%. That is a massive slot percentage.

I mean, you figure that's probably going to go down. But then the question becomes, you know, does he see? less favorable matchups if he's playing outside more. And I think that's a fair question too. Yeah, it is. And that's a huge number. I think I had the PFF number in my head. And I think they always have a little discrepancy with us.

Yeah, and that might have just been where did he align on a particular play? I don't know. Right. But like that these are the routes run. I mean, he was, Graham, he was like for all intents and purposes, he was exclusively a slot receiver last. Yeah, exactly. And I think that's why, man, that's why I like Cooper.

Because they're going to, if they're going to play Lamb outside more, getting Cooper in the slot and letting him do his thing against those inside corners, man, like, I don't know. I just think that's just sick upside. And getting Lamb and, you know, I don't think moving Lamb outside is really going to hurt him. You know, he can separate against anybody and getting him a few more downfield targets only only he's going to help too. I'm a big fan. I'm a big fan of both.

Yeah, I see it as a kind of a positive for both. You know, that's kind of been the problem with drafting Amari Cooper and season long legs. He has these dud games. He puts up the disappearing acts. By the way, it's not an unearned reputation that disappears against tough coverage. And if he plays in the slot more, you know, we're not going to get those one for 10 games as much. You know, he's not going to totally kill you. Maybe he can turn those one for 10 games into four for 40s.

And, you know, with Lamb, I mean, you know, it was all these six for 60 games. And, you know, maybe those turn into four for 75 games. He's getting a couple more downfield targets, getting. the potential for more big play touchdown. So I only kind of see it as a positive for both guys. Yeah, guys, we're going to step aside now and we're going to wrap this up. We can talk to Alice all day. Make sure you go to the FantasyPoint.com and you can sign up for a free 24-hour trial period.

But you can also subscribe and our standard plan gets it's $50 for the entire season. You get all of our franchise focus articles. And these are going to kind of be the foundation of all of our content in the month of August. and everybody knows the month of August is the money-making kind of month for fantasy football, both for providers and for players. That's where you really are going to want to hit the ground running. We're going to join you tomorrow with a podcast on the Detroit Lions. You might notice we've skipped the Denver Broncos.

That is only because right now on the markets, if Aaron Rogers leaves the Green Bay Packers, the Denver Broncos are the betting favorites. I just saw a new line that Rogers is like minus 400 to be with the Packers week one. I'm kind of leaning that way as well. But that's a discussion for another day. We're going to be back tomorrow with the Detroit Lions. My name's Joe Dolan at FG underscore Dolan on Twitter. Graham Barfield, at Graham Barfield on Twitter.

And at Tom Brawley on Twitter, those two guys are the star of the program. And you can follow the site at Fantasy PTS on Twitter. Thank you for joining us for this 20-minute edition of the franchise focus podcast. Covering the Dallas Cowboys, we'll be back with you tomorrow. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points Podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform, and come join the roster at fantasypoints.com.