Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Franchise Focus: Green Bay Packers

Episode Date: August 6, 2021

Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan) and Tom Brolley (@TomBrolley) preview the Green Bay Packers 2021 season in the companion podcast to the 2021 Franchise Focus piece on FantasyPoints.com. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Hey, Packers Day here on the Franchise Focus podcast series at Fantasy Points.com on the Fantasy Points podcast. My name is Joe Dolan. Tom Broley again with the two-man booth here as we discuss all 32 NFL teams in some way, shape, or form over the past number of weeks. Tom, I said it on an earlier podcast. We got this series started like two or three weeks too late. We are swimming. We were like, hey, let's do that franchise focus. And then we're like, yeah, we'll start it in July. And then we're

like, oh, crap, we're going to bleed into training camp. Next year, we are starting this series in June, Tom. I guarantee you that has to be on the task when we have less to do because we are really like overloaded with content right now. Yeah, I mean, we're having a lot. We're having a all these other, you know, all the other draft articles coming out and, you know, all the training camp and stuff come out. Yeah, it's all converging in once here. So, you know, we're, we're going to double up some of these podcasts, double up some of the franchise focuses and the betting previews on the site, just to get them crammed in here so we can start to focus on other things. But the good thing is the season starts a little later this year. We've got the

super late Labor Day on September 6th. So, you know, we do have a little bit of extra time than we normally do. So, you know, we're fretting a little bit, but, you know, we're still five weeks away from the season all day. That's starting to sound pretty close, doesn't it? And these franchise focus, uh, pot, just to give you a little bit of an insight and behind the scenes, you know, we're going to do the values and players to target, the overvalued and players to avoid, you know, sleepers and Mr. Relevant. Tom, fortunately, these franchise focus articles we've been writing are essentially the entire basis for those articles. So, I mean, we're going to be able to turn them out really quick,

but we've got cheat, cheat, cheats, projections, obviously. Everything is going to be up on the website. Make sure you go to FantasyPoint.com and check it out now. Subscribe. Like, you're going to get, it's the best value in fantasy sports. Even if you add on our DFS embedding package, you are not.

The generators on our standard package, by the way, Tom. So we have our $50 standard package, which is what we would consider our season long package. The Fantasy Points Generator, which is our, in-house constructed tool to assist you during your draft built entirely around our projections, our data, our brains, essentially. We have a Hansen's Hints mode where like it kind of put in some rules that John Hansen likes to follow when he drafts. Like, I mean, it's literally like we're holding your hand in your draft. And like, we have- Give that with the standard? That should be like

a $100 ad on. Yeah. It's a, it's part of the standard subscription, which is $50. We have the DFS optimizer, which is in-house. That is an add-on, but you get the DFS package. We had not one, but two. DFS writers nominated for DFS writer of the year this past year with Scott Barrett and Wes Huber. Tom, it was like when teams have two guys going up for the Heisman, like Penn State and 94.

Or Alabama every year. Alabama every year. Well, DeVonte Smith was so good this year that it didn't matter. But Penn State in 94, Scott, neither. Scott Norwest was able to win DFS writer of the year because they split the vote. You know, like, it was, who was, who was? It was Carrie Collins and Kajana Carter in 94. Like, you know, split in the East Coast vote. Split in the East Coast votes and not neither one of, I think it was Roshan Salam who won the high school. Yeah, Colorado. Yeah.

Yeah. So, uh, anyway, uh, yeah, Scott Barrett and West here were so good, they split the vote for DFS writer of the year and I went to somebody else. But, uh, we had two guys nominated and that for us, I think that speaks for itself. Anyway, Tom, we're talking Green Bay Packers, and if you understand what we've been doing here, you notice we've been going in alphabetical order. But we did delay Green Bay as long as possible to wait for the Aaron Rogers situation to play out, just like we did with Houston to wait for the Deshawn Watson situation to play out. We're not getting a Deshawn Watson answer. Which is still playing out. We did get an Aaron Rogers answer. He is back. Tom, this was, this was, as somebody who's been doing a whole offseason of analysis, very selfishly, this was the best out. outcome for us because we still were operating under the assumption Aaron Rogers was going to be in Green Bay, even if we had to hedge a little bit. And what this does, Tom, you know, given what happened with Cam Acres, Terranes Achilles, everything around Jonathan Taylor is collapsing in Indianapolis right now. Given what happened with Aaron Rogers, I think it's very good news

because essentially this adds two more guys into the first round fantasy drafts who were consistently slipping into the second round, that being Devonte Adams and Aaron Jones with Roger's status up in the air. Both of those guys are locked in first rounders for me at this point. Yeah, I mean, Aaron Jones is, for me, like, he's in that mid-R-B, mid-first round RB range there, you know, six, seven, eighth, you know, that's where I'm starting to look at him. And Devonty Adams is right in that same spot. I still have Tyreek Hill, you know, edging him out a little bit. But, you know, I have them right back to back. I have no issue taking either of the. those guys and they were they turned out to be nice little values for at least a couple uh a couple months

there in the middle of the summer uh i did a couple of the nfc drafts and i got you know erin jones 19th overall but those days are long gone this offense is back and ready to roll and uh it's a pretty nice situation for erin jones jamaul williams is out of the picture uh j dillon will be elevated but uh you know more passing game work for Aaron Jones potentially. You know, A.J. Dillon was, he's been a complete zero, you know, as a receiver, dating back to his Boston college days. Maybe he loses a little bit of goal line work, but the situation is looking pretty prime for Aaron Jones heading into this season.

Yeah, so Tom, let's go to Green Bay's odds, which now I think, I mean, if you wanted to bet them to win the division, the Super Bowl, your chance was a couple of weeks ago. Well, they did a lot, they had those down. for a couple weeks as well. They were a little worried about having two long odds for the Packers, so they took some of those. Right, they did. So the books have to hedge themselves.

They have to say, like, we want to get bets on this, but in the, we want to get bets on this in the event Jordan Love is the starter, but, you know, Rogers coming back could really nuke us. Here's where we're standing right now. Ten wins, minus 140 to the over. Minus 160, Tom, to win the NFC North, minus 280 to make the playoffs,

plus 600 to win the NFC, plus 1,200 to win the Super Bowl. I mean, not much analysis needs to go in here. This is one of the favorites in the NFC to both go to and emerge victorious in the Super Bowl. Yeah, this is a, you know, it's a typical Packers offseason. You know, it's not a lot of noise going on here. They did lose Corey Lindley, you know, all pro, first team all pro center. He wants the charges over the off season. That's the one loss that really stands.

And we touched on Jamal Williams, heading to Detroit. But, you know, the offensive line, I guess, would be the one kind of question mark heading in the season because David Bacchiari's suffered the ACL injury at the end of the season there in practice. Had to wait until January to get the surgery. So his status for the start of the year is up in the year. So that could be two of the best players at their respective positions in the NFL out of the lineup for the first. You know, he could start, you know, Vaktiara could start the season on the PUP list. So he might miss the first six weeks of the season. So, and of course, we, the other big move here as part of the Aaron Rogers stipulation for coming back.

He wanted some of his boys to be back in town with him. So he, you know, they traded for Randall Cobb. So, you know, the Amari Rogers buzz, you know, will be tamped down here at least for this season. And Randall Cobb is back in place to play the slot here. I mean, Tom, you last. all you want about Randall Cobb going to the Packers and people did and they'll say, I can't believe Aaron Rogers is blah. Look, these guys, especially those who are mercurial and are as like, as big of auters as

Aaron Rogers is like the Tom Brady, they have their guys. Okay. It's like how Christopher Nolan cast the same actors in every movie. Like these guys have their guys. They know what kind of performance they're going to get. They know where they're going to be. If you don't think Randall Cobb is getting targets on this team, you're a lunatic. He's going to get them.

We actually have them projected as the number two wide receiver from this team. Now, we haven't projected all the way down in the 60s at wide receiver. But Tom, he's getting targets. And, you know, I think for best ball, you can make an argument for Cobb, Lazard, Valdez Scantling, all these guys to be kind of double-digit round targets in best ball. Because you know Rogers is going to put up numbers. But I'm just telling you, Randall Cobb is getting targets. Yeah, it's, yeah, he's going to play to.

I mean, I guess the big question with him is, you know, he's slowed down here a bit. He's in his 30s now. And he's had two injury shortened seasons here in the last three years. You know, he missed time in 2018. And then a tow injury cut, you know, his 2020 season short. So just questions on if he can hang on here. But, you know, he's the problem with him at this point is, you know, he hasn't been really fantasy relevant for six or seven years at this point.

even if he's seeing targets, you know, he's a low upside type of player. So, I mean, honestly, these guys, I don't really don't really want to go after too many of these guys, especially the deeper options. I do have some Alan Lazard, but I feel like it's, you remember Devin Funches, Joe? He's, you know, it's going to be a big rotation. Oh, my Lord, I forgot about him. I know, yeah, he opted out last year. So, yeah, it's going to be Alan Lundches, Joe.

Lazard, Marquez Valdez, Scantling, Amari Rogers, Devin Funchus. Funches. They're all going to be kind of rotating in the back there, back of that wide receiver rotation. Randall Cobb, do I really trust if he's going to stay healthy? So, you know, I wouldn't blame anybody for taking some shots on, you know, on this passing game, but I just, I just feel like Devante Adams, just the way he, you know, he has a 34% target share last year.

So, you know, Aaron Jones is going to handle a lot of the work. Tunyon. I do kind of like him now. Yeah, I bumped him up there a little bit there once Rodgers came back. He was very touchdown dependent last year. You know, he had a ridiculous, like, 88% catch rate. But, you know, I could see his volume increasing this year. Maybe the touchdowns go down, but, you know, it's offset by, you know, more volume. So really after Tunian, I'm not, not too intrigued by many of these other attackers receivers. I'll throw, I'll throw my hat into the Valdez Antling Ring, Tom, the worst good player in the NFL, or even that or the best bad player in the

NFL. I think he's more the best bad player in the NFL, because he can fly. It's just like, how many perfect throws from Rogers have we seen him drop? But Tom, at an 80p of like, I mean, this guy goes undrafted in some best ball leagues, he's going to end up in your best ball lineup at least once or twice because he's going to catch a long touchdown at some point. Yeah, but again. Bad, yeah, plus 200. Yeah, I have it, I wrote up this team. And he had seven, six games with 17 or more fantasy points. And the other 12 contest, he was under 10 fantasy points, including five with two or fewer fantasy points.

So he is like the ultimate boom or bust option. Yeah. And he's not a guy you're, if you pick that guy up in season long, like, I mean, forget about it. But he is, he is the definition of a best. Yeah, that's like going to the casino and, you know, putting a number, you know, putting down on a number there and hoping you hit it in roulette. good luck you might hit it big but more often than not you're going to be leaving the casino a loser

and if you get lucky on the right week he's going to win you DFS money if you stack him with Rogers but that that's what Valdez Gantling is he did well for me in the individual round last year oh yeah he had that big game I want a little bit of money off of that but yeah well that's the kind of player he is um I mean pretty cut and dry Tom I mean when it comes to season long the guys you want on your roster are Rogers Jones Dylan Adams and Tunyon and that's it. Like, I mean, none of these other guys are worth drafting in season long unless you're in a super deep league. And, you know, that's kind of why we're happy Aaron Rogers is back because this is an easy team to figure out.

Like on the secondary level, he is going to mix the ball around from a season long perspective, Tom. Just don't even bother yourself with that and you're going to be a happier person. Yeah, where do you think he's going to settle in Rogers now? I mean, his ADP was a little depressed here because of the situation. But, you know, I think, I guess I think he's going to. of settle in behind Herbert here as kind of that QB7. I think maybe it's going to be close between him and Russell Wilson. I think he is in that tier with Herbert and Wilson though. I think I'd rather have him than Wilson. He's definitely more consistent. I mean, I don't know what to do with Herbert.

That's a different question for another day. I think I'd probably rather have him than Herbert too now that I think about it. But, man, that might be completely wrong. But Tom, that is a question for another day. I mean, I think Rogers is locked in as a QB1. And, you know, I think in those home leagues, he always tends to get drafted earlier in those home leagues than he does in industry leagues. Yeah, he's, I mean, he's been very steady. Even, you know, even before last year, you know, he was kind of always like the QB7 to QB12 range like, you know, a bunch of years in a row there. And obviously, he had the outlier season last year with the 48 touchdowns and, you know, finishing as the, you know, he still finished as the QB3 with 48 touchdowns last year. So that, that tells you how much. the rushing production has really changed the position.

But, you know, he should, he's going to be a safer option out of those, you know, out of Wilson and Herbert. So, you know, no issues taking them. But you're right. He usually is a guy in home legs that tends to tick up a little higher. And maybe his name being in the, you know, in the media and, you know, all over the country here this summer, it might cause it to be a little bit higher this year. And especially he's coming off an MVP season.

I would not be surprised at hometown formats. He does go a little bit higher than usual. Thanks for joining us in our discussion about the Green Bay Packers here at the Fantasy Points podcast and the franchise focus series. It's been wonderful talking about them. We are heading into the home stretch of these and then everything is focused on draft time. I mean, not that we don't have cheat sheets and all kinds of draft help up at FantasyPoints.com, but everything else is going to be focused on optimizing your experience for the month of August and September.

Make sure you go to FantasyPoint.com and subscribe to the website and get all. that information for Tom Brawley at Tom Broly on Twitter. I'm Joe Dolan at FG underscore Dolan on Twitter. Follow the site at FantasyPTS. Thank you, everybody, for listening to the franchise-focused podcast series, and we'll be back with more very soon. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform,

and come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.