Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Franchise Focus: Jacksonville Jaguars

Episode Date: July 20, 2021

Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan), Tom Brolley (@TomBrolley), and Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) preview the Jacksonville Jaguars 2021 season in the companion podcast to the 2021 Franchise Focus piece on FantasyPoints.com. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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We'd love to talk, business. It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by Fantasy Points.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Happy Tuesday, everyone. Welcome to the Fantasy Points podcast and the franchise focus series here for 2021. as we delve into one of the most drastically rebuilt teams of the offseason, you would think that would happen when a team goes one in 15. And that is the Jacksonville Jaguars who are bringing in a new quarterback who's never attempted an NFL pass.

That's kind of what happens when a rookie quarterback joins a team. But also a new head coach who has never coached a down of football in the NFL. That's Urban Meyer. He's never been a positions coach. He's never been a coordinator. We have a blank slate here, and we're going to talk about that all on the franchise focus podcast. My name is Joe Dolan, and with me today are Tom Broly and Graham Barfield. Now, this is a very important kind of time for us at FantasyPoints.com.

I want everybody to check out the website right now because we are, guys, I'm just going to flat out to say it. We are kicking ass right now. The franchise focus series, obviously you guys know if you've been listening to the podcast, we have the accompanying articles which are, I mean, just absolutely jam-packed with information, much more so than we give on the podcast here. But also, Scott Barrett is releasing his entire treatise this week, which is the, I guess his fantasy thesis is Upside Wins Championships. And he's going to explain that.

That article is actually free, 100% free on the website if you head to FantasyPoint.com, even if you're not a subscriber. But what's going to be behind the paywall this week is his putting that upside wins championship kind of mantra into action. And with his anatomy of a league winner and then upside players at the positions, all the different positions, it's really phenomenal. Graham, you're working on best ball tiers. I know a lot of people are getting into this is this is a fish time, guys. This is like when the fish come out and say, I'm going to do best ball. By the way, Draft King's best ball ADP is so.

freaking, it is baby soft. Now, in other ways, though, when I look at baby soft ADP, it almost kind of throws me off in a way because I'm like, wait a minute, that shouldn't be happening. And your brain has to rewire. It's like when you're in a league at home with people and you've got the renegades in your league and you have no clue what they're going to do and they can totally just drop a bomb on your strategy by doing something completely insane. That can happen in draft kings.

But, like, we're looking at best ball, best ball tens, underdog draft kings. Graham, you're releasing tiers based on our best ball rankings and just talking through why you're targeting guys, where you're targeting guys, strategy in general. I mean, guys, this content is out of control. Tom's got all of his betting previews. He was 8 and 0 in 15 win totals last year. I mean, I truly mean that we are kicking ass right now. I'm so proud to be a part of it. And I hope you guys are a part of it as well.

Anyway, that's enough jerking ourselves off. We also have that cool ass. We're going to be doing some cool things for subscribers, too, with the, you know, best ball tens and doing some fun little leagues. So you've got to get subscribed to do that. Oh, and Tom will also be in Discord pretty much regularly from here on out. So any questions that y'all have, hop in, hop in the Discord, and we'll get to them. Guys, I'm just really excited to be a part of this.

So, I think we're in for a huge year. Oh, by the way, the fantasy points generate. Raiders up are in-house built league assist tool where you know you want this running while you're drafting. We've got all kinds of new features there. We have customized, we have ADPs that are customized for specific league settings like tight end premium or two quarterback. We've got, we've got Hanson's hints mode where basically you turn it on and it gives qualitative rules that John Hanson himself likes to follow when he's drafting. You can turn it on or off. You can use it however you want. Just it's really badass time to be a subscriber at fantasy points.com. I cannot say

enough about it. Now, let's get into the Jacksonville Jaguars today, boys. And look, this was a team that won one game last year, but Tom, I guess the markets might be a little optimistic. I mean, not like they're going to win the Super Bowl, but the win total is at six and a half. You have minus 143 to the under. So whatever that tells you. $800 to win the very bad AFC South, plus $340 to make the playoffs, plus $4,000 to win the AFC, plus $8,000 to win the Super Bowl. I think what this is taking into account here, Tom, is dead duck bounce, like, just like they were so bad last year, they're going to be better.

You've got the excitement of Trevor Lawrence, Travis E.TN, a lot of those young players, and the unknown of Urban Meyer. Maybe Urban Meyer is a lot better than we think he's going to be, or he's going to be a little bit different than we think he's going to be. But this is a team, man, Tom, I'm not giving away anything from your betting preview, but from my personal angle, I have a tough time laying any wagers on this team. Yeah, it's a very interesting team. You know, they kind of went his plan last year. This was kind of in the cards there. They won that first game right out of the gates against the Colts and almost ruined the plan to stink for Trevor Lawrence. But they, you know, they played it

pretty well at the end of the year and they ended up getting the top overall pick and getting Trevor Lawrence, getting Urban Myers. So the markets, you don't, you just never see this. They're basically saying they have to have a six win improvement from the year, you know, the year prior to get over their win total. So, you know, I didn't actually go back and look through, but, you know, I can't imagine there's very many scenarios where, you know, we've seen those in the betting markets. but, you know, outside of Trevor Lawrence, you know, they bring in some, you know, interesting guys, you know, Marvin Jones on the offensive side of the ball. They really, they kind of loaded up on the defensive side in free agency. They, they went into the offseason with the most money to spend. And,

you know, they got, you know, Ray Sean Jenkins and Roy Robertson Harris and Malcolm Brown and Jehawad Ward. And, you know, that was where they prioritized their free agency money because they knew they were going to go attack the offensive side of the ball in the draft. So the skill has been replenished there. Now the big question is, you know, how much better is this team going to look with Trevor Lawrence and Urban Meyer kind of leading the way here? Graham, do you have any clue? I mean, I mean, I think with all the stuff that Urban Meyer's been doing, I love how he's

already complaining about some of the restrictions that he has because, I mean, the guy was basically go. Yeah, yeah. They got in the camp. They're going to lose pitch. They're going to lose picks. He was basically the governor of Ohio. I mean, so he's not used to people telling him he can't do something. But Graham, Darrell Bevel's calling the plays. Does it matter?

Yeah. I, you know, I was looking at this when writing up the article, and I got a blurb in the article about it. But I, yeah, Bevel is calling plays, but this is going to be Myers' offense. Like, he is going to be the main designer of the run game, the past game, and everything. everything in between. So there's going to be some sort of relationship between, you know, game planning and all of that, but it's, it's going to be Myers' offense. And Deville will be, you know, on game day, he's going to be calling the shots, but Myers probably going to be heavily involved in that too. So, yeah, it'll be interesting to see. You know, the Jags last year were one of the slowest pace teams in the NFL. And Myers Buckeyes were like in the top, like, at least, you know,

the top one third of college, of college teams in 2017 and 2018. in football outsiders adjusted pace. So I think at the very least, you know, we don't know too much about what their tendencies are going to look like. But I do think the Jags are going to be much faster pace, which will lead to more play volume overall for their offense and in their games as well. So, yeah, I think everything is just kind of on the uptick for the Jags and their games because a lot of those Jacks games last year just ended up being complete duds for fantasy.

I mean, you know, the opposing team would just, you know, run for 150 yards, 200 guards in a couple touchdowns in every game. That would kind of be it. The Jags wouldn't do too much on offense. And I think everything is just setting up better for better game environments in general here. Yeah. And by the way, like here's the thing. The Jags were one in 15 and they had a very good fantasy running back.

And of course, Meyer and this front office just took a blow torch to that. And look, and I mean, what is the number one thing any new staff is going to? to do when you come in, you know, Trent Balke, Urban Meyer. When you come in and you're trying to execute your vision, the first thing you do, obviously, is watch the film on every player still on your roster. And that included James Robinson. Now, there's never a guarantee, especially at that position, that a new coaching staff is going to like what he did or even as impressive as that year was, and they took Travis

ETN in the first round. Guys, for fantasy, there's a lot of intrigue for me. There's a lot of players on this team. where I'm like, you know, I can see it. And then a lot of times I'm also just not pulling the trigger because it's just one of those teams where at ADP, there's somebody I just like a little bit more. Tom, how are you dealing with this backfield? I will fully admit, I just got my first couple shares of ETN in the sixth round of some best ball drafts. I feel like a lot of people are struggling there.

You know, by Best Ball 10s ADP, he's still like a late, fourth, early fifth round pick. I'm not drafting him there. I just really don't know what to do with this backfield, to be honest with you. Yeah, I'm kind of with you, Joe. I mean, this whole team, I think I'm going to be mostly underweight on except for maybe like Marvin Jones. I'll probably be a little above. Even then, though, I'm not going, you know, too crazy with him. But, you know, this backfield, this has been very tough for me.

I just, I'm not going to have very much of Travis Etienne and James Robinson. I'm going to have probably almost nothing of this year. Their prices have been in that fourth to fifth round range. I think they are going to lean a little bit more run heavy than, you know, even what we saw last year, but that was a lot of script-dependence. And by the way, Lawrence can contribute to that. Yeah, absolutely, yeah. He's big and he can move.

And we've seen Urban Meyer use his quarterbacks. you know, their legs and stuff. So I would expect that. But I think in close games, they're probably going to be probably above, you know, above league average in terms of run tendency. But we'll see how it kind of plays out there. A Bevel has had that kind of background as well, you know, in previous stops in Minnesota and Seattle.

So, but this backfield's been pretty difficult for me to get involved with. And, you know, if anybody that's listened to these podcasts know that, you know, we're probably more, you know, looking at receivers and tight ends and quarterbacks in that fourth, fifth, sixth round, you know, the six round range there. So, um, yeah, I'm going to be underweight on this backfield. But Etienne is the guy. I'd much rather have James Robinson, you know, even, even them bringing in Carlos Hyde, you know, not a, there was a big market for him. And they brought, they signed him to a two-year deal. So, yeah, they obviously, you know, Urban Meyer in, you know, Urbemey has a background with him.

Trent Bulky also has a background with him. So, you know, I could see him even getting, you know, half a dozen carries a game. And, you know, anytime we're just taking a little bit away from the top two backs, that's never a good thing. So I just don't like how it's all kind of setting up here. I think it's going to be a very splintered backfield. Now, Scott, I know, is like buying ETN. And I think that's part of his upside wins championships, ethos.

Graham, have you been able to read the tea leaves here at all? I mean, again, we're going into this blind. We're just like, well, Urban Meyer coached Percy Harvin and Curtis Samuel and Darrell Bevel coached Percy Harvin. And they wanted Canaryas Tony, who's kind of a Percy Harvin. Could Travis ETN be Percy Harvin? It's just all speculation at this point. And ultimately, I think if you're betting on ETN, you're just betting on, all right, this guy's an explosive talent. He can catch the ball. Eventually he's going to be the guy here. That that's the way I look at it. Yeah, and he's got the capital, obviously. I mean, first-round running backs in general, you know, regardless of their situation, regardless of their perceived talent, they get the ball, man. Like, that's just, you know, coaches and GMs, they view it as a sunk cost. Even if the back's not very good anymore, they still give him the ball. But yeah, like Tom was saying, man, it's just, it's hard to parse out, like,

what exactly ETN's going to get on the ground. Because I think we know ETN's going to get the ball in the passing game. Like, it just, you know, kind of depends on how much he's going to get. but Robinson not only being involved as like their main inside carry, ball carrier, how much is ETN going to get around the goal line? That's my biggest concern is the touchdowns because I think ETN can end up being fine as like, you know, a yardage play in terms of just what he'll get on, you know, on the ground and receiving combined. But I'm concerned about his touchdown upside.

I mean, you know, Robinson's a bigger back. He's a much better interior runner. And then, you know, you have Lawrence's legs to play. That plays into that too. I mean, you know, when I was watching and charting all of ETN's carries from last year, that's one of the biggest things that Clemson did near the goal line is use Lawrence on a lot of zone read stuff. And I have to imagine that's what Urban Meyer is going to do too.

So, yeah, it's just, it's kind of a, it's a really difficult situation to kind of parse through. And my biggest concern isn't necessarily how many overall touches ETN's going to get, because I think that the workload should be fine to pay off the pick. It's just the touchdown upside. Yeah. And again, you know, I'm looking at this and I'm wondering, is James Robinson going to essentially be, and you guys know where I'm heading with it,

is he going to essentially be their kind of version of Gus Edwards? That's a great way to put it. Like, now, I mean, now Lawrence isn't going to run as much as Lamar, nor is ETN, and ETN is going to have, I think, more of a role in the passing game than than J.K. Dobbins is for Baltimore? But is Robinson just going to get those 150 carries? He's going to average four and a half yards of pop, but he's not going to catch the ball. And really, you know, you look at Gus Edwards numbers and he doesn't do much for fantasy as effective a player as he is. That's my kind of concern for Robinson. And what that then becomes

is it's a drain on the rest of the fantasy value of the backfield. Because, you know, if he might be the touchdown guy, but so could Lawrence. And like, I wonder how much Lawrence is going to score at the goal line. And when you have a coaching staff where you don't really know what to do, unfortunately, I think we have to throw our arms up and say, we don't know, we have to take guesses here. And it all becomes a matter of when are we going to risk a kind of a pick on a player in this offense when we don't know what they're going to look like.

Well, here's my thing, Joe, is like, are you really taking Travis E.T.N. over, like, Adam Thielen? Because that's what you're going to have to do. No, no. And that's like, that's the thing you have to play out in your head is like, okay, even if you take one back in the first round or the second round. If I'm doing like a zero RB build maybe, if I like go, like, for instance, if I go like Kelsey and three wide receivers, like, which by the way, I haven't done this year. Yeah.

Like, but if I do and then I'm just like, I'm going full Scott Barrett caution to the win. Yeah. All right. This is a zero RB team. I am, I am going to try to get. Because you know one of ETN, Sirman. Nagy Harris is a different. he's a second round pick, you know, so we're not, but one of ETN, Sermon, Javante Williams,

Michael Carter, at least one of those guys is hitting in a big way this year. We just don't know who, and that's where I would probably take that gamble, Tom, if I'm in that kind of a build and I'm like, all right, ETN, Sermon, Javante Williams, one of these guys is going to hit it big. I just don't know who just yet. Yeah, I agree with you. If I go, yeah, it's a receiver-heavy build early, and then you take your shots and, you know, after the, you know, after the. fourth, fifth round there in running backs. Try to hit it big. But yeah, if I'm,

if I'm spending a, you know, top 24 pick at running back, I'm probably looking, I prefer to go look for the wide receiver or even one of the tight ends there in the fifth round if I'm building my offense. So yeah, I mean, I usually take a running back in the first two rounds.

So that's why I'm probably going to be a little bit underweight on Etienne. Yeah. I am underweight on them. How are you guys handling this receiving court? This is a, this is just. It's just as good of a debate. I know. I've changed my mind a hundred times.

I got to be honest, I don't have a ton of Chanel. I think he's just one of those players who slipped through the cracks, and I've changed my mind a million times on the guy. I just don't know. I really like Chark at 80-p. Like, I mean, he's a sixth-seventh-round pick. That's like a wide receiver four kind of range in best ball. I mean, I don't, there's not a whole lot of downside there for me.

He's got a quarterback upgrade. I think he's a good receiver. Yeah, I think, I'm with you that. I've changed my mind too, but I think Marvin Jones is my favorite. Just because you get the familiarity in terms of scheme with Bevel, you know he can be the end zone target guy, and he's by far the cheapest out of all of them. Yeah, Chark is a guy I flipped on a bunch this summer as well. I think I'm more out on him as the summer has gone along here. I was warming up a bit to him early in the summer, but especially writing up these previews here.

I really could see all three of these guys kind of sitting around 20% target shares, kind of splitting it all up. And I just feel like Turk's prices, you know, it's early, you know, late fifth round, early sixth round. I've been preferring to get that. Marvin Jones, man. Like, talk about a guy that gets it done every year. I know it's a new offense, but, you know, he is familiar with Darrell Bevel the last

few years in Detroit. His price, you know, he gets it done every year and his price gets cheaper every year. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, he was on, you know, bottom, you know, the top 100 pick last year. Now we're routinely seeing him around like 125, 140 range there. So, chart has just been difficult for me. I just, the more I think about it, the more I think it's going to be a pretty splintered.

It's kind of like the backfill. I think it's going to be more of a committee than anything. So Chark has been a guy. I've been slowly turning on here as the summer has gone along. I'm in literally the same boat as you, Tom. Because I figured I would have a lot more Chark than I do. And I just haven't, you know, six, seventh round is like, it's a fair price. But at the same time, for all the reasons we've outlined, it's still kind of hard to fully buy in on any of these guys.

Jones is just the cheapest. And he kind of fills the same role as Chark, too. He's also the one guy that they don't have under. contract for next year. You know, they have Schnellt still on his rookie deal. They gave Marvin Jones the two-year deal in the off-season. So, you know, they could easily move on

from them. That little grain is in my head as well that, you know, they have no allegiances to him here. But, you know, we'll see. This is why we could be eating our words, you know, first couple weeks of the season once we see how this offense looks. But I also just hate

that Marvin Jones is a very similar player to DJ They, Chark, just the way they play the game. You know, throw them up the ball, you know, give them contested catch situations. You know, let them see who can make a play. So that also has me a little bit concerned as well. Well, did you guys see that picture this weekend of Lawrence and Chark and all of them on a boat? Oh, the bros.

Yeah, Marvin Jones was sitting closest to Trevor Lawrence. Oh, yeah. Now we're getting into pictures at the time of year right now. We're getting into Buddy game theory. But Marvin Jones was sitting closer to Trevor Lawrence, I'm just saying. I mean, the boat picture ruined O'Dell Beckham's career. So I'm not too sure about that. Anyway, that'll wrap it up for this edition of the franchise-focused podcast,

talking Jacksonville Jaguars. I hope you guys enjoyed listening to this. Again, we've broken down. This is now our 12th NFL team that we've broken down. In case you have noticed, we're going in alphabetical order, but we have skipped the Denver Broncos, the Green Bay Packers, and the Houston Texans. the last two for obvious reasons. Denver, because I feel like they're the betting favorite to land Aaron Rogers if he were

to be traded. I think eventually we're just going to have to suck it up and assume Aaron Rogers is back in Green Bay, which frankly, from my perspective, is the easiest thing right now because our projections are set. I'd like to get Devante Adams and Aaron Jones back into that first round range. Anyway, that's a story for another day, a story for our Green Bay Packers podcast. But Graham, Tom, and I will be back tomorrow with Kansas City Chiefs at Grand Barfield on Twitter, at Tom Broley on Twitter, at FG underscore Dolan

on Twitter, and the site is at FantasyPTS on Twitter. Thanks, everybody, and we will talk to you tomorrow. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform, and come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.