Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Franchise Focus: Kansas City Chiefs

Episode Date: July 21, 2021

Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan), Tom Brolley (@TomBrolley), and Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) preview the Kansas City Chiefs 2021 season in the companion podcast to the 2021 Franchise Focus piece on FantasyPoints.com. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Hello everyone. Welcome to the Franchise Focus podcast series at the Fantasy Points podcast. And we're talking Kansas City Chiefs, the two-time defending AFC champions here. on today's edition, our 13th such edition. Remember to check out the website as well for the written edition of all of these articles, all of these podcasts, which are much more in depth than they are here. But I just want to welcome everybody back to the show.

My name's Joe Dolan, Tom Browley, and Graham Barfield are with me as we're into our third week of the franchise focus series here at FantasyPoint.com today. Guys, it's the Kansas City Chiefs. I think we know how we're handling them. So we're going to answer just a couple of the questions that, people are asking about the Chiefs, and they are interesting questions because you want a piece of this offense. But I want to remind everybody the content on the website is just killer right now. It's a huge week for Scott Barrett.

It's a huge week for Graham Barfield. Scott Barrett getting his upside win championship series going. Graham getting his best ball tiers going. Tom's got all of his betting previews, which are released concurrently with the franchise focus series. The content is just killer right now. and there's so much more. Just reach out to us on Twitter if you want to know anything. But as we're getting into drafting season,

I know people want to be equipped and be the smartest you can be come the end of August beginning of September. We're already putting it all together for you. Just stay put and we're going to help you through your draft. So the Kansas City Chiefs, unsurprisingly, Tom, lined as one of the best teams in the NFL. I believe lined as the best team in the NFL. Yep.

12 and a half wins, win total, minus odds to the under. However, that win total moved from 12 to 12 and a half. So they were getting juice on the over there. They were getting bets on the over. AFC West minus 333 to win the division, minus 1,000 to make the playoffs. I mean, that's basically just like it out of every turn. Yeah, out of every 10 seasons, they're going to miss the playoffs once. AFC championship plus 250.

five to one to win the Super Bowl. They are lined as the best team in football, Tom. I don't think people are taking that. Let's be frank here, the ass kicking in the Super Bowl. I don't think people are taking it to heart because I think a lot of folks believe that the Chiefs have done a lot to rectify which was the biggest problem in that game, which was the offensive line. Yeah, I mean, that was the clear mission of this offseason to upgrade that offensive line. You know, it had been exposed a bit during the season. And then the Super Bowl, I mean, It was, you know, it was free game there. The, you know, the Buccaneers were living in the back field.

I mean, we remember the Patrick Mahomes throw where he was, like, basically parallel to the ground, you know, just trying to get the ball off. And so they made that their top priority. So they bring in Joe Thuney from the Patriots. I believe it's Tooney, by the way. Tooney, Tooney. Joe's always great with the pronunciation. There's a loony. Here we go, Joe.

You're going to help me out here? Laurent duvonne d'ardif. Hey, Laurent duet D'Aidt Rif. Okay. I've been watching. You're coming back. You know, they trade from him for the Rams. They traded a first round pick for him.

So like, I mean, that's a huge addition. They drafted Creed Humphrey. So, you know, they brought in a bunch of body. You know, they brought in Kyle Long from retirement as well. So, I mean, they attack their issues head on. You know, the one big thing is I think they let their receiving core go a little bit. They, you know, really focus their, you know, their money on the offensive line. So they're a little thin there.

That would be, I guess, you know, one worry about this team is, you know, if they would get a big injury to Tyree Kill or Travis Kelsey, that they're a little bit thin, you know, at the receiving court. But for sure. You know, this is going to team, yeah, 12 and a half wins the most in the league. But Andy Reid, he's 8-0 to the over. He does it every, you know, since he's gotten to with the Chiefs. So, longest, you know, longest win streak in the, in terms of win totals since he got there in 2013.

So it's 12 and a half. It's a lot of wins to get to that over. But, you know, don't bet against Andy Reed and his teams here in Kansas City. Yeah, I mean, Graham, this is a very good football team. And frankly, I mean, in ways, they're almost kind of boring for fantasy right now because you're looking at, you've got the number one quarterback in ADP, you've got the number one wide receiver in ADP, and you've got obviously the number one tight end in ADP. So those are the three guys this offense goes through.

So I'm going to flip it around and we're going to have the discussions where nobody needs to hear us talk about Patrick Holmes on this podcast. But let's have the discussions about some of the interesting spots. And Graham, I'm going to start with Clyde Edwards-Alair. I got to be honest, I thought he was going to end up being one of my most drafted players this year. And I think it's just the way the board has fallen for me that I haven't taking them as much as I would want.

Look, he burned us last year. Like, we pushed him hard. He burned us. He didn't have an awful year, but he burned us. Like, he didn't have a great year. He was disappointing as a receiver. But if you take the step back and you look at everything that's going for him, the offensive line, I'm sorry, guys, I'm buying in again. Yeah.

Oh, I'm with you, man. I remember us talking about this in like May after the chiefs, you know, didn't do anything in free agency, really. they brought in Jerk McKinnon. Didn't do anything in a draft, obviously. I remember talking to you about this and like, you know, we were like, hey, Clyde Ward's probably going to be like a mid third round pick this year. Everybody's going to be kind of off of them, but it kind of hasn't been the case. He's been consistently going behind, definitely consistently going behind DeAndre Swift and

pretty much behind J.K. Dobbins all summer. And honestly, I mean, it's not really, it's a very efficient price. You know, it's, it's not a discount off of what was a disappointing last year, but it's, it's certainly not inefficient. Yeah. I'm with you, though. That second round range in the two, three turn is loaded between Darren Waller, between all the receivers in that range. It really just kind of depends on, you know, what did you do with your first round pick? Because you get a top five, top six pick, a lot of those times I'm coming back and I'm taking a receiver or tied in, a tight in in that range.

And it's nothing against Edwards O'Lear or his profile, because like Tom was saying, they're often. offensive line kind of got better this year. It's crazy. I mean, they really turned a huge negative into what I think might be a positive. Overall, that being said, that, you know, the biggest question, and you alluded to it, Joe, is how many more targets does he get this year? And will they allow them to score touchdowns? It's kind of, you know, the two main things here. Touchdown regression is the big one. Like, I mean, our guy Jake Tribby did a great XTD article up at FantasyPoint.com. And Edward's Allaire is one of the biggest positive. regression candidates from the touchdown perspective. And the other factor here, Tom, they won't be trying to shoehorn Levy on Bell into this offense. Yeah, that's the big question. And that was kind of at the end of the last year, they were really trying to force Bell

into the lineup. You have to wonder if the ankle injury was part of that issue as well. You know, he had the, I think it was a high ankle injury that kept them out a while and didn't look quite right even when he did come back for a stretch there. So that's the question. Do they work in Darrell Williams and Jerich McKinnon, or do they kind of give him more a leash here? Like they were, you know, essentially doing at the beginning of the year.

They were, you know, given those goal line opportunities, and he just couldn't find the end zone. And I remember it was like, I forget what game it was. Yeah, I had three or four consecutive carries right at the goal line and got stuffed. It was that week one Texans game. Oh, it was the Texan game. Yeah, I mean, that was national TV game. That was the first game of the year then.

So that's the big question. Do they continue to, you know, take snaps away from him? Do they work in these other backs? I think they give him more of a chance to, you know, be that guy. And you can even see it reflected in his ADP. It's been kind of rising all summer long here. You know, he's kind of, you know, right in that early second round, late second round, early third round. But it kind of sets up better.

He was a first round pick last year. The hype got really, you know, it was really. going there. He was even, you know, he was sneaking into the top five or six draft picks at some points in some of the drafts I was, some of the best ball drafts I was in last summer. So, it should set up better for him that we were talking about how thin their receiving core is. I mean, if there's any kind of injury there, you know, maybe they rely on the past, yeah, the running game a little bit more. So better offensive line. It's all sent up to be better here. he's going to be a second year back.

Maybe he learned from, you know, it was a weird off season. They didn't have any, you know, with COVID-19, and you didn't get a lot of practice opportunities. So it's all kind of setting up better for him. And, you know, you're basically getting a rounder, round and a half discount at this point now. Yeah.

The interesting thing real quick is that like, Clyde Edwards-Alair was kind of like the inverse of Antonio Gibson. You know, we knew that we kind of knew Antonio Gibson would be like, we thought he'd be more involved in the passing game, but that turned out to be J.D. McKissick. And it's kind of the same situation as Clyde Edwards-Alair. It's like he answered all those questions that we had for him, you know, being a smaller 5-7, 210-pound back on the ground.

But then, you know, he only got 11% of the targets in his games that he played. So one of the things that kind of stood out to me this off-season is Andy Reid saying, hey, I know we need to design more stuff to Clyde Edwards-A-Layer. I know we need to get them involved in space a little bit more. I think they do, they do do that. And like you just mentioned, Tom, a good part of it is because they really don't have much else behind Hill and Kelsey. Yeah, maybe the offensive line thing, you know, maybe that helps even just like the screen game. I mean, you don't have to keep as many guys in to pass protect.

You have, you know, better offensive line that can get out and, you know, can block for him. So I wouldn't be surprised, you know, especially the screen game if he gets a little bit more involved in that. Because I thought that was a little disappointing. I thought they would be more designed kind of pass plays for him last year. And it really wasn't. Well, let's talk about the other question here. And that's who's going to be, let's say, heck, could it be the third option in the passing game? Or if you count Edwards-A-Rour, could it be the fourth option in the passing game?

Me, Cole Hardman, Demarchus Robinson, Byron Pringle. I think you can make arguments for all of these guys. Now, here's the thing for Hardman. Guys, you might be surprised to learn that the highest snap share of, his career came in his first career game. 78%. He hasn't reached that since. Now, Tyreek Hill left early in that game,

and that's been the problem for Mikol Hardman. They have viewed him as a direct Tyreek Hill backup more so than somebody who just comes in, because Sammy Watkins has missed a ton of time in the last couple of years, but Mikul Hardman's numbers, even though Sammy Watkins is gone, in his career, he's averaged 7.6 fantasy points per game with Sammy Watkins in the game and 8.6 fantasy points per game without him. So a negligible difference. So Sammy Watkins being gone at least through these two seasons has not mattered to whether Mikul Hardman produces for fantasy. Now, he's being drafted in the 10th, 11th round again. He's getting hype. Oh, God, he's in the best shape. You know, he's really come along. And look, I am totally fine. drafting me, Cole Hardman, just on the off chance that things do click because he's in this

offense. But through two years, he has not been a good football player. Well, the biggest thing is he's just not, I don't think this coaching staff has been able to trust him. And I think it's shown just by the way they've used him. And like you mentioned, man, he's just been a part-time player and a special team's player. I'm actually blurbing this. I've got a little ADP changes, risers, faller. Riseers, Faller. There's Colin coming out here. And I was looking into this because Hardman is coming up in price. He's been up, he's up like half a round or maybe a full round or so over the last

couple of weeks here. But, yeah, Hardman, it's interesting because Sammy Watkins last year and the year before that saw a 16% target share in all of his healthy games. So I just don't see the chiefs just like one v1 saying, hey, Sammy Watkins was our full-time slot guy and basically a full-time player. I don't see them just immediately entrusting Hardman with that role. He still has to beat out Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle in camp. And yeah, he had a good OTAs.

I'm, you know, I definitely can believe that there could be a bit of a third year jump. But I'm waiting on, you know, you know, a camp report to say, hey, Hardiman is clearly ahead of Demarcus Robinson and Pringle. Yeah. Yeah, Nate. Sorry, Tom, you go ahead. No, no, yeah. I've been kind of handling that in my draft.

I mean, best ball drafts. I've been kind of taking shots on these other guys, these Byron Pringles, the even Cornell Powell, who's, you know, a day three pick who's got a little bit of buzz during Manning Camp, DeMarcus Robinson, you know, I just need to see a little bit more from McCull-Horman. Maybe we see it in the preseason. Maybe we get the training camp reports. But I've been more inclined to look at these lesser receivers that don't have necessarily as much buzz. and you can get them after 200 pikes in the draft.

I mean, I've drafted Byron Pringle as a wide receiver 8 in like every best ball draft that I've done the last week plus. I mean, now, and look, am I expecting that to pay off? Not necessarily, but somebody is going to, you would think. Now, Nate Taylor from the Athletic said, Hardman came into mini camps as the number two receiver. Nate Taylor also said, and I don't know if this was scientific or just observation. He said, Byron Pringle was the guy Patrick Mahomes was targeting the most. So, again, just wait for camp reports, but there is a buying opportunity here. These guys, Hardman, Robinson, Pringle, Powell, Tom, as you said, they are pretty cheap,

and this is a great offense. I just don't know if any of them are going to pay off in redraft, but I do think there's some upside here in drafting these guys in baseball. But the problem is, I feel like we've said that the last couple of years, that somebody's going to pay off here and it really hasn't. It's been all Tyree Kill. It's been all Travis Kelsey. You know, you know, Sammy Watkins has been a mass, was a massive disappointment whenever he was on this roster. I mean, I know Demarcus Robinson, there was some buzz. I don't think it was last summer, but maybe the summer before that he might have a little bit of breakthrough. So it really

hasn't happened, but, you know, we'll see if they work a third guy into the passing game. And we'll see, you know, Travis Kelsey's getting up there a bit in age. I don't think. I don't he's necessarily going to fall off the face of the earth here this season. But, you know, there's at least a little bit of a potential for him to take a small step back. And, you know, Tyree Kill has had trouble, you know, finishing all 16 games here and four out of the last five seasons. So, um, this is a passing game. You keep taking bets on. It hasn't paid off in recent years with that number three wide receiver, uh, or number, you know, number three receiver in the passing game. But, uh, this is still a passing game. You take chances on to see if it's,

does happen. All right, that'll wrap up the analysis of the Kansas City Chiefs. Again, a pretty simple team to break down. Again, they have the top ADP at wide receiver, quarterback, and tight end, which is all you need to know. Follow him on Twitter at Tom Brawley. Follow him on Twitter at Graham Barfield and follow me on Twitter at FG underscore Dolan. Follow the site on Twitter at Fantasy PTS. Make sure you go to the website, sign up, get that free 24-hour trial, read the franchise focus pieces. It is just spectacular, all the content you're getting. All the stuff Scott Barrett and Graham are dropping this week is just fantastic. I'm thrilled to be a part of it. I hope y'all are part of it in this upcoming season. We have a normal NFL season as normal

as we're going to get at this point. I am thrilled about it. We are fired up. I hope you're fired up. Thanks for tuning in and we will join you tomorrow. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, wait, and review on your favorite platform and come join the roster at fantasy points.com.