Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Franchise Focus: Las Vegas Raiders

Episode Date: July 22, 2021

Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan), Tom Brolley (@TomBrolley), and Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) preview the Las Vegas Raiders 2021 season in the companion podcast to the 2021 Franchise Focus piece on FantasyPoints.com. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points Podcast, brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Fantasy Points podcast and the 2021 franchise focus series as we continue to maneuver all around the NFL to break down all 32 teams as we head into. training camp and the preseason. There's going to be some bleed over into training camp with this series, but you are rest assured you were going to get all the information you could possibly want up at

Fantasy Points.com. My name is Joe Dolan. I'm with Graham Barfield and Tom Brawley today, and the guys have been helping me break down all these teams, but I want everybody to know, in case you didn't, there is a much, much longer companion piece to this podcast up on the website with, I mean, just everything you could possibly want to know about. out a team for fantasy. With West Huber scheme notes, key stats from Graham, Scott Barrett's strength the schedule,

Tom and I are doing player profiles, John Hanson's getting his final points in there. I mean, it's just a ridiculous amount of content. I was just talking to the guys off air. I think we bid off more than we can chew because we didn't, we should have started them earlier and now we're like scrambling to get them done because we're so busy. But rest assured, this is going to be the centerpiece of all of our offseason content. here for July and August. And obviously over the next six, seven weeks, that is where the money is made for fantasy.

And I hope you guys subscribe to the website to make sure you get all that content. Today we're talking about the Las Vegas Raiders. You got to do the Berman. That's who we're talking about today. We're talking about the... Imagine somebody just tunes in for this like five seconds. He skipped ahead 90 seconds, and all the ears going, well, I'm sure John Gruden loves the Berman Grunt of Raiders.

I can see Gruden just sitting there saying, yeah, man, that's right. We're the Rhehr. But anyway, the Raiders are just a fascinating team, because I think nobody thinks they're very good. Nobody thinks they stink. And the question is, are they going to go in either direction any one of these seasons? And, you know, I'm looking at the season win total here, Tom. It's seven.

Minus 118 to the over, minus 105 to the under. That actually fell from seven and a half. So there's a little bit of juice to the over there. The AFC West plus 2,000 to win, plus 340 to make the playoffs, plus 30. $3,300 to win the AFC plus 6,600 to win the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, for they are stuck in a tough division. And Tom, I mean, I wonder if there's in any way some Aaron Rogers stuff built in here in case Denver trades for Rogers. But this is a team who it looks like the markets are viewing as exceptionally mediocre.

Yeah, it's been a weird offseason form. I mean, it was kind of, they've, they just have, the Gruden era has been kind of weird, you know. I think he's done a way better job than anybody anticipated the coaching aspect to get the most out of his offenses. But, I mean, the moves that they make every offseason, it's like a self-sabotage. And, you know, the offensive line, they trade away, you know, Rodney Hudson, Trent Brown, and Gabe Jackson for, you know, basically day three picks and all the scenarios there. I think Rodney Hudson was for round three pick. But just a weird Kenyon Drake contract, you know, to essentially be like the 1B behind Josh Jacobs. You know, they use a pick on Josh Jacobs and don't really use them in the passing situation.

So it's just a lot of bizarre moves. And a team that has, you know, seemingly regressed in the AFC West this offseason compared to the likes of the chiefs who, you know, really upgraded their office. offensive line. Denver's getting healthy again. They, you know, they had a bunch of injuries to some, you know, Vaughn Miller and Cortland Sutton last year. And, you know, the Chargers are a team that's kind of up and coming. We'll touch on them tomorrow. But yeah, it's just a team that takes a couple steps back every off season. They always do these first round picks that everybody has, you know, is scratching their heads about. So, um, you know, take a couple steps back in the off season and then they kind of overperform in the regular season once, you know,

Gruden actually gets the coach these guys up. So it's just a weird franchise and they just can't really get out of their own way. I kind of look at it Graham as kind of like a less explosive version of what happened with Bill O'Brien in Houston. And because you look at the moves that O'Brien made, like the trade of DeAndre D'Andre Hopkins, alienating the team's best players. But on the field, I thought O'Brien did a nice job with like, like play calling and you know, you can nitpick a lot of things, but O'Brien did win games. Gruden isn't winning as much as O'Brien, but I don't think he's also nuking the morale of the franchise as much as he did.

It just, they just kind of feel to be stuck in that weird purgatory grab. Yeah, they are. And like Tom said, they make these moves where it's just like, you know, giving Kenyon Drake nearly $15 million and like $12 million guaranteed. That's like the same deal, Melvin Gordon, got last year to go be with the Broncos. And, you know, it's just bizarre. Like they just, you know, they'll make these really boneheaded moves like that.

And then they strike gold, like with Darren Waller. I mean, they bought so low. If you go look at the tight-in contracts, like go to over the cap. After you listen to this podcast, go to overcap and check out the tight-in contracts. And look at the deal they got Darren Waller on. I mean, it's unbelievable. They timed that perfectly. They brought in Nelson.

Yep. Yep. They brought in Nelson Aguilar in a league minimum deal. I love the John Brown deal, too. Like they got them for like two and a half, three million. Another field stretcher you can still play. And then, yeah, you mix in the Kenyon Drake moves. You mix in their mixed bag of draft picks.

It's just, yeah, it's just, it's a bizarre amalgamation of talent. But by and large, I mean, the Raiders last year were top eight in points scored per drive. Their biggest problem once again was their defense. And I think that's probably going to be their catalyst once again is that defense. Well, let's talk fantasy now, and I want to talk about the biggest story. Guys, again, if you've been following these podcasts, we've been kind of honing in on just one or two things from each team for fantasy. Again, if you go to the website and read the article at fantasy points.com, we break down every player we have projected with like a paragraph write-up, so you know exactly how we feel about these players. The story for me, Tom, is the backfield.

Josh Jacobs has been, you know, he's one of those players, if you've got, go and you look at the numbers overall compared to like how it felt to have him on a fantasy team. You look at the numbers and you're like, man, you know, he's got 2,200 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns in two seasons. He scored 12 rushing touchdowns this season. He's gone over 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons rushing. But there just seems to be something missing. We know it's been the receiving aspect, which is a huge surprise to me. And I think to you, Graham, as well, because he was a good receiver coming out of Alabama, being charted with yards created.

And then they go out, Tom, and they sign Kenyon Drake. And I'll be honest, the only rate of running back I've been investing in at an ADP of five to six rounds cheaper than Josh Jacobs is Kenyon Drake. Yeah, I love your stat that you always cite, Joe. I always have to go back into the pro football reference splits to make sure it's true. But Josh Jacob has seen one target on a third down staff. his entire career over two years now. It's just he has no absolutely zero role on third downs in passing situations.

And it's not going to change now. I mean, Kenyon Drake, he was used, you know, bizarrely by, you know, in Arizona last year. You know, he was a very successful, you know, passing back. Even, you know, the eight games that he played with the Cardinals in 2019, and then you go back to 2018-19. with the Dolphins there. That 32-game stretch, you know, he was a very good receiver, and he just did not have a role in the passing game last year for the Cardinals.

But he would seemingly be their guy in those situations this year. And they're going to work him in and, you know, probably in some early-down situations. I kind of almost view Kenyon Drake kind of like a Kareem Hunt coming into this year. You can get him four rounds later. I think he's going to be kind of the handcuffed. if something would happen at Josh Jacobs. And we've seen him play through some injuries and get nicked up a bunch. So, you know, I haven't draft a lot of Cream Hunt,

but I've kind of been going after Kenyon Drake, you know, four or five rounds later because I feel like they have a lot of similarities. But, you know, the Josh Jacobs situation, he's going to be very game, you know, game script dependent, all touchdown dependent. I broke down his games last year, you know, when he scored a touchdown, he averaged 22.4 fantasy points per game in those seven games. And when he failed to find the end zone, eight of those games, under 10 points. It was 9.6 fantasy points per game.

So he's a touchdown or bust type of guy, and that's probably not going to really change this season with Kenya Drake coming in to take the passing game work. Yeah, and Graham, how are you handling this? Because it's just one of the most fascinating situations. I can't remember a signing, just nuking fantasy value for somebody so much, and it was a surprise signing. Yeah, it was. And to Tom's point, Jacobs has been not only just touchdowns dependent, but game script dependent. Like, in the Raiders wins, that's where all of his touchdowns have come from.

So Jacobs has 19 career touchdowns. 17 of those have come, and Raiders wins. I still think Jacobs is going to be the goal lineback and most likely like their short yardage back. But yeah, man, I mean, the ceiling wasn't great for Jacobs to begin with. I mean, he was a late first, early second round pick last year, only ended up scoring as a top 12 running back and weekly scoring four times last season. And like you mentioned, Tom 2, you know, the third down usage has been bad. And now he's got to, you know, compete with a better running back than Devante Booker for early down carries and we already know that the passing down roll is dust. I mean, I think fourth round

is a fair price, fourth, fifth round where he's going is a fair price, but it's really tough to pay it when there's so, I feel like this has just been like a running theme of all these pods, but there's so many receivers to like in that range. Yeah, Tom's, uh, not the goal line where, I mean, Drake was very good in that area last year. He scored 10 rushing touchdowns. So, I mean, I would think Jacobs has the leg up there, but it's not like an absolutely. It's not guaranteed. Yeah, it's not guaranteed. Yeah. Tom, when it comes to Jacobs, now here's an interesting question because Graham said the price is fair. And I agree. It's just, you know, he's been going where I think there's a lot more appealing wide receiver kind of options.

But here's a question based on news that we had pop up this week. Who would you rather have, Tom, straight up? Josh Jacobs or Darrell Henderson? I'll be going Henderson. I mean, we'll see how it all plays out in camp. We'll see if they make any moves. moves here in the next couple of weeks, but I do think they'll bring in a back in Henderson. I'm sure Scott and Graham will really get into that situation next week, but I lean towards Henderson. It's going to be the better offense. I think he's, you know, he's better positioned

to potentially play on three downs. We're not going to get that with Jacobson. As Graham said, he's so game script dependent, and you look at the Raider. We talked about the win total at the beginning of the pot. It's seven wins. They're one of the six or seven worst teams in the league they're going to be playing from behind and a lot of a lot more games than they're playing from ahead so uh you add it all up and it's it's not a situation i have i have not gotten involved with josh jacobes basically at all in my uh draft so forth this summer yeah i think i auto picked him one which is just which is just which is just an awful i mean it's not you know he's going to be a productive player but yeah but just empty production is is the way i view it

Yeah, there's one guy who's worse to get auto-drafted, and that's James Robinson. That's the guy who's the worst. That ADP still hasn't corrected. He's still in there. Yeah, he's still in there. Now we've got to worry about the CAMHakers ADP. Does any team have a later wide receiver one being drafted than the Raiders? The Patriots maybe.

I was going to say Patriots or Jet. Jet's Corey Davis. No, Jet's probably like Corey Davis and Moore are going. But, yeah, it might be right with the Patriots. It's Henry Ruggs, by the way, wide receiver 58. He's the first wide receiver off the board here for the Raiders. I just think people look at the offense last year, Graham, and just see, man, Carr actually played pretty well, but they just really mix that ball around to the receivers. The number one receiver is, who's a second round pick. But, yeah, wide receiver 58 is their first receiver. Henry Ruggs caught just 26 passes last year. Yeah, I need to look back into this. I pulled it up in the middle of the year.

year with our guys at SIS and they have a really cool like splits table. So I'll go back and and pull this up. But their offense totally changed when Ruggs was off the field. I mean, Derek Carr was thrown deeper. The passing offense was more efficient. And it's kind of like that old adage that is mostly a cliche, but there's definitely some truth to it that like these field stretchers, even if they're only catching three or four balls per game, they definitely open everything else up for everybody.

And that was true, certainly with the Raiders last year when I looked into it like late, middle to late in the year. But yeah, Darren Waller is the wider receiver one. Walthor saw 28% of the team's targets last year, guys. That was better than Andrews. That was better than Kelsey. I mean, that's like Stefan Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins level usage. And I have been, I think my biggest mistake by far last year was not being in

on Waller in like the fifth and six round. And I have corrected that this year. Anytime I have like that late second, early third round pick, Waller is usually at the top of my queue. Yeah, I made it. I need to invest in him. Yeah, I made the same mistake last year, too. I, you know, just seeing them go so wide receiver heavy in the draft and going to get Magilar,

I'm like, ah, they're, they're going to try to, you know, lessen his role a little bit. And it was a complete opposite. And, you know, he was essentially used like a wide receiver last year. He was, you know, he was the second most perimeter, perimeter routes behind only Travis Kelsey at the position. So, you know, he's basically a big ex-receiver for the. them. They'll move him all over the field, and as they should. I mean, he's, you know, certainly proved that he can play anywhere in the field. And, you know, he was, he was a league winner at the end of last year. I mean, just an unbelievable stretch at the end of the year.

You know, averaging 26.7 fantasy points were game in the final five weeks. So he was, he was an auto bet for me as well with his receiving guards every week towards the end of the season. They really started to heat up him and Derek Carr. And, you know, all signs are They're pointing towards it again. You know, no major upgrades at receiver. They're going to go into this season again, given these young receivers, Brian Edwards, and Henry Ruggs, a chance to emerge.

They certainly didn't do it last year. We all love John Brown. He's kind of undervalued every year, but, you know, he has tended to have issues at times with, you know, lower body injuries. And he can, you know, sometimes miss some time. So it's Darren Waller. This whole passing game is just revolving around.

All right, guys, that'll wrap up the Las Vegas Raiders, who quite frankly, are not all that interesting for fantasy. It's Waller and a bunch of guys. I've been investing in Kenyon Drake. I've been dabbling in the wide receivers late, but, I mean, there's a lot of questions here with Vegas. So we're going to get to their division rivals to Chargers tomorrow. I hope you check out the article up at FantasyPoints.com, which releases the same day as this podcast. Follow me on Twitter at FG underscore Dolan. Follow Tom at Tom Brawley.

Maybe Tom and I this weekend will have a picture or two to post up there on Twitter. We're both in a wedding. Oh, yeah. Tom, Tom, maybe we'll recreate your famous wedding picture. With a cigar on my mouth. With a bad. I don't have the hair anymore, Joe. I'm a clean cut guy now. Yeah, I'm losing my hair.

So I have to go get a haircut and we'll see what's going on. I need to get, we need to get a keeps sponsorship. That in Meta Musil were the sponsorship. If Metamusel doesn't come through, that's what we're going on. Anyway, but yeah, Tom, that was a backwoods in your mouth, wasn't it? Oh, yeah, I was smoking some backwoods last weekend. My buddy, he'll always bust those out, so we were doing a... Oh, man.

That's just high-quality cigar, man. Exactly. I only reach for the good stuff. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, the vanilla? Oh, man. That's high quality.

Honeyberry. Honeyberry is our go-to, but. Oh, okay. I got you. I got you. Yeah, I'm more of a vanilla type, but, yeah. Oh, maybe I might have to buy it back for this weekend. Anyway, follow the site on Twitter at Fantasy PTS. This has been another edition of the franchise focus series. We'll be back with the Chargers tomorrow.

Hope you'll listen in. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.