Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Franchise Focus: New England Patriots

Episode Date: July 29, 2021

Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan), Tom Brolley (@TomBrolley), and Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) preview the New England Patriots 2021 season in the companion podcast to the 2021 Franchise Focus piece on FantasyPoints.com. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast, brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. I regret to inform you that I am back. My name is Joe Dole, and I'm back on the franchise focus series here at FantasyPoint.com and the Fantasy Points podcast. I want to thank Tom Graham, Scott Barrett, everybody who stepped up to contribute in my absence,

went up north for a wedding. I live in South Carolina, so it was a 10, 11-hour drive. It knocked out two days completely, in addition to the days that I was up there for the wedding. We had a great time. It was good to see Tom, but I am back. I'm just getting over my hangover, Joe. Oh, my Lanta.

So Tom, so we went to the groom's, excuse me, it was the Brides Parents' house. to drop off our tuxes the next morning. Now, I knew Tom was out late because my wife and I walked back from the bar at about midnight after the wedding. And Tom, Tom and our friend T.J. We're out tying one on with, you guys went left and we veered right. Yeah, so we went home because I knew we had to go down.

We were going to see my in-laws. And, you know, I just wanted to make sure I was feeling at least okay. The next day actually ended up feeling great. but Tom ended up going out with the with the groom's aunt closed down a bar and Tom walked in to the bride's parents' house, Graham, the next morning to drop our tuxes off. So we walk in that's how, you know, the groom often will take the tuxes back. So we walked in, I walked in with my tux and Tom walks in to the bride's parents' house for like a little breakfast there. He walks in carrying his tucks. He has sunglasses on, which he refused to take off.

Wasn't taking the sunglasses, though. They were banged up, the eyes. They weren't looking too good. And the tuxedo was pulled in the bottom of a bag like it had rigor mortis. Like, I mean, or a liver mortis. Somebody taught me that one a long time ago. That's all they're going to do at the tux shop anyway. They're going to bowl it up and throw it in the wash.

Yeah, exactly. I'm not going to waste five minutes. putting them back on a rack and, you know, making sort of folding and stuff. My buddy taught me that a long time ago. That's smart, yeah. You got in that one, that's just, that's knowledge there. That's street knowledge, but I was not taking the glasses off.

Oh, my God. He was, like, he was so, like, you had your tucks in a body bag, and then you felt like you needed to be in a body bag. Oh, yeah. I had to drive two hours home from screaming to State College, and it was, oh, it was a tough drive. I just set it on cruise control and just hold on back. I had the worst meal of my life at Burger King on the way back.

It was just drenched in ketchup and mayonnaise. I cannot wait for this hangover to be over. I am good to go now, guys. There you go. I mean, it was one of those hangovers, Graham, and I was a good boy this weekend. I didn't feel bad at all on Sunday morning. But it was one of those hangovers, Graham, where I just loved. Looking at Tom made me feel sick to my stomach.

I have been there before plenty of times. Those two to three day hangovers are like, it messes everything on. It messes your stomach up. I even woke up Monday. I'm like, I'm still feeling a little bit off here. It's crazy.

You know, it's crazy the difference. It's crazy the difference between what you can do when you're like 21 in college, like your senior years compared to like now. Like even now, I'm 27 now. I can, I'm washed. I'm washed.

30s. I just do, you know, what I did that Saturday after the wedding, I did that all the time in my 20s. Well, we can't hang with the big dogs anymore. We could still do the Saturday, Tom. It's the Sunday. That's the problem. You can still try to do the Saturday. So anyway, it was a fun time, guys.

I think we'd rather talk about hangovers than talk about the New England Patriots offense. But that's what we're going to do today here on the franchise focus podcasts. And we're talking Patriots as, again, We've been making it through the NFL teams. I guess, guys, we're going to be able to get to Green Bay and Denver here pretty shortly. I still have no idea what to do with Houston. Just with the Deshawn Watson situation, we'll wait until the end for them. I mean, they suck for fantasy anyway.

So we'll wait. Yeah, when he was taking snaps at safety and, you know, they were talking. Not to go too hot trap. What are they doing? Like, why is he even there? Like, is it strictly just to, like, judge what the public will do? He's under contract. I mean, there's no NFL investigation.

I mean, I don't know. No, I know, but just like, what is the benefit of having him there? I mean, they could just say, here, hey, you have an excused absence. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know. I mean, Watson would have to pay fines. I mean, I guess maybe they think, like, if he's there, maybe that helps his trade value. You know, he's out, he's out doing things.

That's the only thing I can think of. True. And if, you know, the Texans would have to waive all those fines, like, if you were to miss, because you get fined, you know, thousands. It obviously makes sense for him to be there. I mean, if he gets fine thousand. So anyway, we'll talk about Deshawn Watson when that, if that bridge comes. I don't know if it's going to.

We could be in a holding pattern until next year for Deshawn Watson. But let's talk to England Patriots. Obviously a team that was in transition last year. They missed the playoffs last year for the first time since 2008, which coincidentally was also their last season when Tom Brady was not under center for them, that because of an injury, not because he was playing for another team. But the markets are a little more optimistic this year, Tom, on the New England Patriots than they were, or then at least maybe you might think based on last year. Their season win total is set at nine with minus juice to the over minus 133, plus 350 to win the AFC East, plus 140 to make the playoffs.

So they're short underdogs to make the playoffs, plus 1,600 to win the AFC and plus 3,500 to win the Super Bowl, Tom. and I think a lot of this, quite frankly, has to do with Bill Belichick. You just don't see Bill Belichick losing too many games. You feel like he's going to fix things. They had a ton of opt-outs on the defensive side of the football because of COVID last year. Those guys are back.

The markets expect this to be a better team. And frankly, the Patriots did spend a lot of resources to improve this offseason. Yeah, like nothing we've seen basically before from the Patriots. I mean, they went out. I think it was up over 200. million dollars they spent in free agency and, you know, they revamped this entire roster. And, you know, they bring in guys like John O'Smith and Hunter Henry, Nelson Aguilar.

So, you know, that receiving court was one of the worst last year. It's going to look totally different now. They trade for Trent Brown to solidify this offensive line. They didn't lose Joe Tunney a little bit. But it's still going to be one of the better offensive lines in the league. And this defense, it still played fairly. well last year, even though the offense kept putting them in terrible spots. And it's, you know, got some reinforcements.

Dante High Tower will be back from his opt-out. And they spent some money on that side of the ball as well. They got Matt Judon from the Ravens, Jalen Mills, Kyle Van Noy, Davon Guzho. So, I mean, it's, everything is kind of in place for this team. The only real big question marks are at quarterback. They did get the quarterback with the 15th overall pick and Mac Jones. We'll see if he's ready to play early this season, but they're bringing back Cam Newton,

and it was not very good results from him last year. He was the league, basically the league's worst passer. We'll see if there's anything left in the tank, but at least they have some sort of backup plan behind them. Maybe they'll give him a few starts, see how he looks. But it's probably going to be Mack Jones time. at some point by the end of the year. Yeah, Graham, what's your read on this quarterback situation?

Because, I mean, from a fantasy perspective, Graham, Cam Newton was actually a useful quarterback last year, despite being awful, which just goes to show you the power of running quarterbacks. The problem is, though, his presence just completely sucked the fantasy relevance away from literally everybody else. Like, there was nobody who was appealing on this team. I'm with Tom. I do expect we're going to see.

Mac Jones at some point here. And while Mac Jones would be, I mean, just an excessively boring fantasy quarterback on his own, I feel like it might open up some relevance for other players around here, and we'll get to that. Yeah, for sure. And I think that's the biggest question with this offense. You know, last year, I was going through the pace and tendencies for, you know, this team. It's obviously kind of a shock just looking at, you know, comparing the Brady years to this offense and what it was last year.

But the Patriots were the most run-heavy team in all game situations. When they were ahead, when they were behind, when the game was close, they were running the hell out of the ball. And I have to wonder if, you know, if Mac Jones and when he takes over, what they're going to do, like what this offense is going to look like in terms of, are they going to keep with the super, super-super-run-heavy ways? Or are they going to open this thing up a little bit? But, you know, I think you kind of alluded to it.

That's really the question for this offense in the running game because Cam had 22 carries inside the five last year. That was third most among all players. Like that's up there with like Zeke and Daven Cook in terms of touchdown upside near the goal line. And, you know, whether or not it's Cam, whether or not it's Mac, I think that's kind of the question for Damien Harris and even James White to a certain extent. So I'm going to get my inner Mills lane on here. We were talking off air about our opinions of Damian Harris, who is getting a ton of camp hype from Bill Belichick. A beat writer's were talking about Damian Harris in May.

Mike Reese came on the fantasy football morning show. He was on with me and I believe Adam Kaplan. And I asked him about Damian Harris. And he said, this guy is far and away the number one running back on the team. Bill Belichick has gone out of his way to praise him. And right now we're looking at a guy who's sitting with like an eighth round ADP, a very affordable RB3. Graham, you are in.

Tom, you aren't in so much. Graham, I'm going to start with you. And then I'm going to step away and let Tom give his counter argument. I'm fascinated by this because to me, this could be a pretty pivotal player to executing several strategies. Like if you can get a really good RB3 in the eighth round, that really helps any strategy. where you might want to load up on wide receiver early. Graham, this is, the floor is yours. Let's hear the case for Damien Harris.

Yeah, so I guess it really just comes down to like, if Cam's the starter, then Harris probably doesn't have any, if it, like, he has very little touchdown upside, like six to seven, if you pro-write that out over, you know, 17 games. But if we do get Mac Jones early, and I kind of do think we get Mac Jones a lot earlier than people are expecting, Mac ain't running inside the five. It'll be Damien Harris, getting the majority. of those carries. In the 10 games that Harris played last year, he got 60% of the Patriots running back carries so that doesn't include Cam. So we got 60% of those carries. Sony-Michel was

hurt, but I think we kind of see the writing on the wall with Sony-Michel. He only played three times in those 10 games that Harris was active, but the writing's on the wall. I think they're going to move on from Sony-Michel. They didn't give them the fifth year tender, which wasn't a surprise, but they did draft Ramandre Stevenson, I think, to replace him. Stevenson's going to play some special teams for them this year. Right now, Dame Harris is going to get all of the number one starter touches in camp. Stevenson's dealing with some sort of injury. I haven't really seen what the designation is.

He kind of popped up randomly on the PUP list earlier this week. So Stevenson's going to miss some time. Right now, it's Harris's backfield. It's Harris's backfield. And we know what James White's role is. He's a passing down player only. And, yeah, I just think Harris probably has more upside than, more draft than the drafters are giving him credit for.

I mean, like you mentioned, he's a lynchpin like RB3 target for me and like that eighth, ninth round range. And it's kind of not a great range. It's not a great range to be drafting it. I mean, the receiver pull drafts up, dries up, quarterback drives up, tight ends pretty sketchy. I just think it kind of makes sense to go after some, you know, touchdown equity with, with Harris on the, you know, event that Mack Jones starts earlier than we think.

Yeah, I just don't. I just, I guess it all comes down on the touchdown upside with Damien Harris. And I just don't see it as much as you guys. I guess I see Cam Newton getting a fair share starts this year. And even when Mack Jones, you know, gets, you know, eventually gets starts in probably a second half of the year, I still think Cam could be a factor down by the goal line. I think, you know, once they get inside that two-yard line, he's going to come in as the goal line back. He's been one of the best all time at the quarterback position,

finishing at the goal line. It's the old Jacobi percent formation that the Colts were using. So I don't think he'll be totally dead, even if Mack Jones comes in the lineup. I think he'll get opportunities down at the goal line. And, you know, we're going to really be counting on the touchdown upside for Damien Harris. He's got a hit eight or ten touchdowns to really come through with where he's being drafted because, you know, we know James White is going to dominate all the passing game work here.

And I guess, you know, I also see Michelle hanging on this roster. I mean, say what you want about him. But, you know, he did play kind of his best last year. You know, even if he's just getting, you know, six to eight carries a game and, you know, for Andre Stevens is still in, you know, still in the act here a little bit. So I just, I just don't see the huge upside here with James. Harris. I do, I do, I'm in agreement with you guys that he's clearly the best runner at this point, but I just don't see the upside with the touchdowns as much as you guys. Well, let's start

another argument here, Tom. Maybe it's not an argument. Maybe we'll have a concurrence here. Moving on from Damien Harris, who leads this team in targets, Tom, if you had to take a guess right now? Oh, gosh. If I had to take a guess, I'd probably say Jacoby Myers, but, you know, I think John O'Smith's going to be pretty tight with him. You know, he's kind of been the passing asset that I've been kind of targeting. I guess he goes. He goes off the board about 120, 140 picks in somewhere in that range. So he's kind of the most intriguing to me because I think he was underutilized in Tennessee.

And we kind of saw last year at the beginning of the year whenever he was free to do what they wanted. You know, they were using him more in the passing game. And before he kind of got limited, you know, as more as a pass blocker. you know, after Taylor the Juan's injury, you know, a couple weeks, fifth or six week, you know, fifth or six week into the season there. So, you know, I like John Hussmith. He's my favorite target of the group, but I probably leaned towards Jacoby Myers getting the most targets. And, you know, he's another guy that's, you know, relatively cheap. You can get him, you know, well after 150 plus picks in.

But, you know, just didn't show any, he was another guy that had no touchdown upside with Camp Newton throwing for just eight touchdown passes last year. I think I did his profile for the focus. And he led the league in terms of targets, receiving yards, and catches without a touchdown last year. So I would think that would change a little bit. But I'll go Myers and Johnny Smith won two in terms of targets this year. What do you think, Graham? It's kind of crazy. Jacoby Myers says 85 catches and nearly 1,100 crew yards and zero touchdowns.

He didn't score in 2019 either. Apparently he's allergic. I didn't know that. But yeah, last year was really good. tough because he had some nice games there and was pretty PPR relevant. Yeah, he is free, by the way. So he's one of those guys who is still, now people are starting to take notice, but on my best ball teams, I have Jacoby Myers as like a wide receiver six,

an absolute ass load. Yeah, I've got the, I, Joe, you and I've been kind of lockstep on Jacobi, too. I guess for managed leagues like season long, I kind of just get the feeling like we're not going to know when to start these guys, like, at all. Like, it could be a Johnoo week. It could be a Hunter Henry week, and it could be a Kendrick-Born week. I just, I don't know. I like them for, you know, the value that they provide in bestball is like, you know,

John is like a title of two or three, but I just don't really want anything to do with them to manage leagues. And I know that's like a cop-out, but it's really true. I mean, I just get the feeling that these guys are going to be so unpredictable in managed leagues. So, by the way, I think it's just going to be kind of a big rotation with this whole offense. And that's what kind of scares me. Yeah, I'm with you. But, you know, so, yeah, if you're doing an auction, I don't have a problem, you know, using a late pick, hoping you're, hoping you're, hoping you're strike gold. But yeah, if you're, you know, if you're expecting, uh, these guys to be real consistent, I don't think that's going to happen. Yeah. And, and, um, I've actually doubled up with Patriot tight ends in best ball. Um, I think it's a viable strategy, both if you're, like, waiting super late to try to get a tight end one out of them and also is like to tag team a tight end too. But again, like, do I feel confident in saying, that one of those guys is going to be better than the other.

I mean, I'm taking Johnny Smith earlier. I think Bill Belichick's comments just ring loudly in my head about how he views him as such a great after the catch with the ball in his hands kind of tight end. They're absolutely going to scheme stuff up for him. The question is, where is the volume there? And I think that is a valid question, guys. Yeah, that's the biggest thing is like, you know, Belichick back

and, like, I think it was that first Titans playoff game, not the final Brady game, But the first Titans playoff game, I think after the game, he said something to the effect. Like, Johnny Smith is the most, like, the best tight-in after the catch, the most athletically gifted tight-in in the league, which was definitely saying something. And the numbers back that up. I mean, John who has been that guy. He has a big hard on for Hunter Henry, too. He said some really nice stuff about him along the way.

So they were definitely two of his favorite targets in free agency. And, you know, the money backs it off. I mean, what do they get in basically both $12 million a year? So they have some sort of plan for them. We'll see how it's unlocked. But to sum this all up, I think Cam Newton is the biggest black hole in fantasy football this year. Please get them out of the line. But as soon as possible to unlock the rest of these guys in this offense.

That's the perfect way to put it. He is a black hole. It's perfect. All right, guys, that'll wrap up the New England Patriots. Follow him on Twitter at Tom Browley. I'm on Twitter at Graham Barfield. Follow me on Twitter at FG underscore Dolan. Go to FantasyPoints.com

where you can get the written version of these articles. I guarantee you, you will not regret it. We have tons of content coming in the month of August to help you absolutely crush your fantasy drafts, including the Fantasy Points Generator, our draft tool, our in-house draft tool, that utilizes our projections, 80Ps to help you really make optimal selections

at every stage of your draft. So, for Tom, Tom, Tom Barfield. It's got a good rank to it, Tom. Tom Barfield. Tom Barfield does have a great ring to. All right, well, that actually makes you a quicker exit. For Tom Barfield, I'm Joe Dolan.

Thanks for listening to this edition of the Fantasy Points Podcast. We will be back tomorrow to discuss New Orleans Saints. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at Fantasy Points. com.