Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Franchise Focus: New York Jets

Episode Date: August 3, 2021

Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan), Tom Brolley (@TomBrolley), and Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) preview the New York Jets 2021 season in the companion podcast to the 2021 Franchise Focus piece on FantasyPoints.com. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's week three of Canadian tires early Black Friday sales. These prices won't go lower this year. Maybe too long. Freezing. Save up to 50% November 20th to 27th. Conditions apply, details online. It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast, brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle,

from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome back to the Franchise Focus podcast. series here at Fantasy Points.com and the Fantasy Points Podcast. My name is Joe Dolan. joining me today for the franchise focus are Graham Barfield and Tom Broly, also of Fantasy Points.com. Keep it pretty insular here. Everybody's at FantasyPoint.com. We're on the Fantasy Points podcast. We're talking about FantasyPoint.com. We're talking about the franchise focus. I hope everybody goes to the website and checks all these massive articles out around which basically all of our August and September content is going to be built. So we've been working our

butts off on these. And rolling out these accompanying podcasts, I think, has been a lot of fun. Yesterday, we covered the New York Giants, actually mostly covered the Carson Went's injury in Indianapolis. Hell, maybe there's been an update since then. We're recording these at the same time. But maybe there's more to the Carson Wentz situation that you've heard. But if there hasn't been, go check that podcast out as we broke it down, kind of in real time as that news had just broke right before we started talking about the New York Giants. Maybe they shortened the timeline from five to 12 weeks to like five to 11. Yeah, five to 12 weeks. So I saw Jeannie Bramel from a football guy said like what he thinks

that timeline includes, and I'd like to get Edwin's opinion on this as well, but Edwin is taking care of patients right now. He can't chime in. What he thinks that includes is like they know that if they take the bone out, that's going to be a five-week recovery. What he said is they might not know right now what the ligament damage is, the associated to ligament damage until they go in. So they have to determine that. I'm sure we'll probably get an updated timeline after Wentz has the surgery. So Frank Reich said they'll know more within two to three weeks of what's going to happen

there. But obviously it's a gigantic blow to the Indianapolis Colts, a bigger blow than any team has received thus far. So the New York Jets, guys. Tom, we'll start with you with the market. Season win total over under, looks like minus 120 on. six wins on the season. Seems a little low to me, but we'll see.

Plus 2,500 to win the AFC East, plus 550 to make the playoffs, plus 7,500 to win the AFC and plus a 15,000 to win the Super Bowl. The Jets aren't going to be very good this year. Taking those odds? Yeah, they're pretty cool on the Jets right now. You know, they're coming off a two-win season. There wasn't a whole lot of highlights. from last year. I did like their offseason, though. They spent the three picks on, you know,

Zach Wilson, Elijah Verrett Tucker and Elijah Moore, all in the first three picks and the top 34 picks there and the, you know, good for, you know, good start to the draft there. I even like some of their offseason moves, you know, they get Corey Davis, Keelan Cole, you know, just, just solid pieces to to make this roster better. Just, I think a lot of, you know, six wins, AFC East is loaded. I think that's the big thing here. You got the bills, arguably the second best team in the conference,

and then the dolphins and Patriots, you know, they're right there as well. So it's going to be tough to get even two or three wins in their own division. And, you know, you're starting a rookie quarterback. And, you know, it's a first time head coach in Robert Salaf. So it's, you know, a lot of inexperience and key spots there as well. So this is a number that's, you know, been ticking down all off season. If I was giving out this article whenever it was at seven wins, I probably would have been giving out the under.

But now that it's ticked down to six, you know, six and 11, you know, I think they're going to be feisty enough. I see Zach Wilson, you know, keeping them involved and keeping them close in some games. But this is going to be a team that takes some lumps here in 2020. Yeah, by the way, I liked a lot of what they did this offseason. And I don't think you should judge the future of the Jets based on how many games they win this year. Now, obviously, we're going to be looking at Zach Wilson. What is Zach Wilson going to do as the quarterback? He just got signed.

I think greatest training camp started. So he might be just a, Tom, to borrow a term from you, just a scosh behind the eight ball. Because he just got signed. But talented guy. and I think Sam Darnold is probably sitting here thinking like, what did I do wrong? Like, why does Zach Wilson get to come in here and have Elijah Moore and Corey Davis? And, oh, they have Jamison Crowder. But then you go sign Keel and Cole.

Like, what did I do wrong? Why did I have Adam Gase too? Yeah, exactly. So you get the lesser LaFleur and to call the plays. Salas seems like a great guy, a guy that people want to play for. but he gets this improved, not to say this is a top five receiving group, but certainly it's one where you're like, I can see them having some success. And Graham, the guy I'm going to ask about, though, is the guy I'm most excited to draft.

He was the Jets' fourth round pick this year. But he opened training camp as their number one running back. That's Michael Carter from North Carolina. He split the backfield in college with Giovante Williams, who was pretty universally regarded as the better prospect. but at North Carolina, Mac Brown had these guys rotating. The Jets came out and said, look, he was our fourth round pick, but we had like a second round grade on the guy.

And sometimes you always look at those comments, Graham, and you're like, oh, for Christ's sake. Like, of course, like, you're going to say, oh, my God, our seventh rounder, we had him. He was like the eighth best player in the draft. I can't believe we got him. Like, you always kind of roll your eyes at that. But everything the Jets have been doing with Michael Carter to this point suggests that they're not lying. Like, we really thought this guy was a really good player.

And look, if they had taken him at the top of the third round, Graham, I wonder if his ADP would have been higher just based on the draft capital. He's currently going in like the seventh, eighth round range. And I think you can justify it. There's not a whole lot of competition for Michael Carter on this depth chart. Yeah, there's not. And he's a guy that I've kind of slowly warmed up on as the summer has gone on here. And this kind of positive drumbeat has started, it started back in like many

camps and OTAs when he was getting like legitimate first team burn too. I mean, he was playing ahead of time, you know, Ty Johnson and Kevin Coleman. And on the surface, yeah, that's not very impressive. But like, you know, if you've been following the NFL for long enough, you know these coaches love to come out and put rookies behind veterans that they're clearly going to be ahead of by week one. So the fact that the Jets have already made that decision and made Carter at least the 1A, yeah, I do think that's newsworthy. The flip side, you know, I never thought, you know, Carter's a little bit undersized. He's 5-8, 200 pounds.

I've never thought he's going to be a bell cow. I kind of comped him when I was writing up yards created. I was like, he's on that like, G. O'Bernard, Chase Evans, James White Spectrum. And Gio Bernard is able to, you know, handle 15, 16 carries per game. Do you want him doing that over a full season? Probably not. But that being said, the Jets don't really have too much else.

I think this is going to end up being some sort of rotation. But, I mean, Carter is by far going to have the most valuable role. and he should get most of the passing down work, which is what I'm most intrigued by. Yeah, and he's the guy who I'm drafting here for sure. The guy who I'm out on, Tom, is Tevin Coleman. I just like, the body is just totally broken down right now. If you look Tom at athletic profile, though, Ty Johnson is very similar to Tevin Coleman.

I wonder if, like, this might be a revenge of the youth here here. Like just Michael Carter, Ty Johnson, they have the Michael P. Ryan. I'm not sure how P. Ryan really fits there. Kaplan told us that the coaching staff likes P-Rine. I was kind of surprised by that. I didn't really view him as the kind of guy who fits this kind of outside zone kind of offense. But Michael Carter is by far the best bet. And I think the rest of these guys are probably waiver-wire types.

Yeah, I mean, I've drafted Coleman some, but just because he's going just extremely late. Like, as my fifth or six running back on best ball teams. But, you know, not that I'm at. Give you two or three games, yeah, I guess. Yeah, we'll see, you know, and we'll see if Carter, you know, we think highly of them, but, you know, he is a rookie, you know, Graham laid out that he's undersized here. So while the situation looks good and, you know, we'll see how he adjust to the league. And, you know, Pete Ryan feels like a weird fit for this scheme here.

He's not the fastest guy. He's more of a power back, more of between the tackles. And Ty Johnson is a guy. I will be keeping an eye on here early in the season. He's been an intriguing guy. He's bounced around a little bit from Detroit to the Jets. But he can really get to the corners. He has that type of speed.

He seems like a nice fit potentially for this offense. So I'm with you guys, though. It's all Michael Carter here in the backfield. And then I'll kind of wait to see how it all plays out here. But I wouldn't be surprised. I don't know if Carter will truly be a Belcal. I kind of see them kind of work at all three of these back. in and preferring to use Carter in the passing situations.

Well, you know, just giving Coleman and Ty Johnson, you know, six to eight carries each. I don't think they really want to get Carter up over 200, you know, 200 carries this season. Real quick hypotheticals here, guys. Who do we want Carter or Dame Williams? Or, sorry, not Dame Williams. Damien Harris. Ooh.

Oh. Oh. Am I going to? I like Carter for his receiving ups off. Yeah. I would say that. they're going to be in some pass-heavy scripts as well, you know, in the second half. I was looking at them.

I was looking at my rankings on this this weekend. I was like, damn, it's getting closer and closer here. Yeah. Probably. I think I'm watching time. I think I'm going to switch with Carter. But it's one of those, Graham, where if I was doing 10 bestball teams and in the eighth round, I had the choice between the two of those in all 10, it might be like six to four in

favor of Carter. Like, that's how I like to tell people, like, how do you, how do you, how do you, how do draft within a tier. Like, just because you have, let's just throw an example out there. If I have Devante Adams, wide receiver two, and I have Stefan Diggs, wide receiver three, that doesn't mean if I have to choose between the two of them in 10 straight drafts, that I'm going to choose Devante Adams every time. That's why tiers are so important, because they're like, all right, I've got to differentiate here. I only like Adams a little bit more than I like Stefan Diggs.

Do I like him more? Yes. But is it 10 to nothing more? No. That's Devante Adams to Elijah Moore. If I have the choice between the two of them, I'm taking DeMonte Adams 10 times out of 10. But DeMonte Adams vis-a-vis Stefan Diggs,

Tyreek Hill, Calvin Ridley, all right, that's where I'm going to differentiate because that is a very close one. And I think it might be 6'4 in favor of Carter in that regard. And that Tom brings me one more thing here. because I mentioned him. Elijah Moore, the rookie wide receiver. Scott Barrett's boy, Greg Costell loved him. He's the wide receiver I've been drafting here.

Absolutely. I loved it earlier this summer when he was going 150 plus picks in. And then he started blowing up in minicamp. And, you know, the drum beat, as Graham said, it's been going all summer long here. And they did, you know, Graham brought up about the first team reps for Carter. They did, you know, they tried to temper it a little bit with Elijah Moore. You know, at the very start of training camp, he was with the second team a bit. But he's worked his way into the first team.

He, you know, he's earned those snaps. So the problem is, you know, I don't know if I, you know, fully trust Zach Wilson. You know, this is a team that wants to be run-centric at the core of things. And I do think that they're going to use four-man rotation at receiver. I think it's going to be Corey Davis. I think it's going to be Elijah Moore, Keelan Cole, and James and Crowder, all kind of rotating snaps. And I think it could even be just a three-man rotation

where Corey Davis is kind of just locked into that X and they're kind of rotating Crowder, Johnson, and Moore, Keel and Cole in Crowder and Moore and those three other spots. And those two other spots. So that's the only thing I'm worried about. But, you know, if Moore is going to be making these ridiculous plays that, you know,

these 40-yard bombs, he's just separating, you know, at the end of the day, you're not going to take that guy off the field. So if he's playing, playing well enough this year. You know, he's going to earn a spot. And he's the guy to target, you know, 10 plus rounds into a draft. You know, I start targeting him probably about 120, 130 picks into drafts. It's an ideal spot.

And, you know, he's a guy that could really break out here. You know, he did it at Mississippi after A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf left. He was the man there. So, you know, just because he's a little bit undersized and there was some thought that he might just be a slot-only type of player. But he looks like he can play all over the way. the field because his rock you know rock quickness and just a guy you want to be early on you know it might not be the best offense here in new york but you want to be on these type of guys all right guys that'll wrap up the new york jets franchise focus podcast uh exciting rookies is kind of the the

theme there even though they're not getting drafted very highly we'll see which of those guys pans out we'll be back tomorrow when we discuss philadelphia eagles here on the fantasy Points Podcast at Tom Broley on Twitter at Graham Barfield at FG underscore Dolan for me at Fantasy for the website. Make sure you go and subscribe so you get all the franchise focus articles. You are not going to regret it if you do. We are updating rankings and cheat sheets and all of that stuff constantly and we'll be doing so throughout the month of August and into September to get you ready for your fantasy football drafts.

You get a free 24 hour trial period if you sign up and create an account by the way. So you might want to get it. on that right now. Thank you for joining us here. I'm Joe Dolan. He's Tom. He's Graham. We'll be back tomorrow. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoints.com.