Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Franchise Focus: Philadelphia Eagles

Episode Date: August 4, 2021

Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan), Tom Brolley (@TomBrolley), and Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) preview the Philadelphia Eagles 2021 season in the companion podcast to the 2021 Franchise Focus piece on FantasyPoints.com. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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responsibly. It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single

goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome back to the franchise focus podcast series here at the Fantasy Points Podcast and FantasyPoint.com. Joe Dolan, Tom Broly, Graham, Barfield here today. Talking Philadelphia Eagles who have been in the news this week, as well, they usually are.

There's usually something going on with the Philadelphia Eagles, whether it be good or usually bad over these last couple years. And this week, guys, as we broke down earlier in the week on the podcast on the New York Giants edition, is the Carson Wentz injury. Now, we kind of disassociated it from the New York Giants because I thought it needed to be timely. So we discussed that. But long story short, it decreases the Eagles chances, significantly so, in my opinion. of getting an extra first round pick, which would be their third from the Indianapolis Colts in the 22 NFL draft.

So we're going to talk Philadelphia Eagles today, guys, and I guess the news that's come out here. And let's just start with the news before we get into the win totals and everything. Devonte Smith has an MCL sprain. It looks like he's going to be out about two weeks. Our guy Edwin Porras is not worried. But of course, you know, when you see injury for hyped up Eagle, Eagles fans utterly melted down. I still think there's fires burning in the streets of Philadelphia. I just think the Lincoln Financial Field is under 24-hour locking key guarded presence.

I mean, like, Eagles fans cannot handle this. And I understand it from perspective. But guys, I'm looking at it from this regard. Every indication is that the Eagles view of this is a minor injury. It's an MCL sprain. instead it's probably less serious than the one that cost Nick Chubb a couple of games last year. Graham, I'm going to start with you. If there is an ADP dip on Devante Smith, I'm buying the dip.

I don't think this is a big deal. Yeah, they have every incentive, obviously, to take it super slow with them as well. Yeah, honestly, I kind of haven't been drafted a lot of Vante Smith. I thought I'd have some more. But, you know, the market's just been pretty bullish on them. seventh eighth round. Yeah, that's been drafting more like Debo. Yeah, man, I've been drafting more Debo and Michael Gallup in that range. But I'm with you. I think, you know, if you start slipping in that round nine, round 10 range, that's fine. I mean, because, you know, with these rookies,

unless, you know, they're like Justin Jefferson and they just, you know, are immediately like contributors earlier in the year. For the most part, you're drafting these rookie receivers. They kind of stashed on your bench until the mid to the late end of the season. You can have a, you know, an upside play is your wide receiver three. And I think Devante Smith, Smith, still fits that bill. I, you know, Edwin giving, you know, his kind of, uh, is a nod of approval was strong there. But, you know, anytime you have a speed receiver who has like a knee or hammy injury, it definitely, uh, it definitely should scare you just a little bit. But we'll see how far Smith falls here. Yeah, I'll be, I'll be buying it. I don't know about you, Joe, but I've been

kind of in on him whenever I see him get to the eighth and sometimes the ninth round. And, you know, I'm also targeting Jalen Hertz around that range. So, you know, sometimes I'll pair those guys up for a little stack there in the eighth, ninth round. But I don't think it's time to be overly concerned here. You know, it seems like Devante Smith. I mean, everybody says that he's pretty sharp. And, you know, I don't think we're going to get up, you know, have a problem here where he falls behind in the playbook. Or, you know, not, you know, of course you want the rookie to get more reps with the, you know, the first team and get those a couple preseason reps.

I don't see it being a major problem for him. You know, the reason I've been in on them, you know, there's, I think there's a nice path here to leading this passing game to, you know, holding the edge and target share. You know, we're used to these rookies having, getting out of the gates slow, but it feels like he's, you know, pretty pro-ready and in a great situation here. So, you know, that's why I have been pretty bullish on him. But, yeah, I'm with you, Grant.

like, you know, that Debo Samuel, you know, Darvis Landry, not Tarvis Landry, Tyler Boyd, those kind of guys I've been taking over him. But, you know, once Smith gets into that eighth round, that's when I start looking at him. Yeah. And by the way, he's, he's been going kind of in the Jerry Judy range. I think that's going to consistently be Judy now, which I agree with. Like, I prefer Judy, but I'll buy the dip on Devante Smith. We'll talk more about some of the receivers here. There's actually quite a bit we could talk about with Philadelphia. Because they're not expected to be very good, by the way, Tom. Six and a half wins, minus 130 to the over.

So the markets do think that, or at least the betters think that this team might be a little bit better than its lined win total, plus 550 to win the NFC, plus 275 to make the playoffs, plus 5,000 for the NFC, plus 10,000 to win the Super Bowl. They are in the weakest division in the NFL, though, Tom. I think Dallas people would say is probably the quote unquote, class there with Dak Prescott back. Meanwhile, Washington might have one of the top five defenses in the NFL and they're the defending division champions. But, you know, if Jalen Hertz comes out and runs around and makes plays and is better than people might expect, I think you can probably

see a pathway to this team winning the division. Yeah, it's certainly in play. And that, you know, that's why it's 550. You know, if this was any other division in football, you know, it'd probably be closer to a thousand. So, you know, I think they've had a solid offseason. I've actually liked some of their veteran signings for, you know, one-year deals, you know, getting Ryan Carrigan and Stephen Nelson and, you know, just some of these, you know, just to tighten that defense up a little bit, one-year deals, you're not locking up for the future, but I think that's kind of, this is kind of a weird year for the Eagles. They're loading up on these draft picks, you know, signing guys to one-year deals.

They're kind of keeping it flexible for next off-season. but they're also giving the quarterback that they drafted in the second round last year a chance to see what it can do. So it's a team that's kind of like in between a rebuild or are we tanking? It's kind of a weird year here. And that's why I think, you know, the line is at six and a half. If there were signs that this team was kind of going for it this year, you know, we even had the incident at the end of last year in the regular season finale where they tanked there in the last game. you know, if they get to December here and, you know, they're trending in the wrong direction and

they want to get one of those top five, top 10 picks, you know, maybe they rest guys that are battling injuries or, so I think that is kind of baked into this line as well. So it's a, it's a tough line. I'm not involved in it at all. It's a, it's a team that should be right around, you know, right around that six to eight win mark, I think is pretty soon. Well, what I think the Eagles have done here, Tom, is like you said, these one year signings, like I think, how. Roseman and the front office, obviously, you bring in Nick Siriani a new coach. And what I think he's doing here is like, you know, what if Jalen Hertz takes a big step? And he's taken the big step and we didn't load up around him enough to really help him thrive.

What I think this does is, all right, in the event, Hertz does take a steper. You know, I think that there's been the Deshawn Watson. So I can't imagine there would be a team training for Deshaun Watson right now. But there have been those talks. Like, what if we make a trade, you know? What if Russell Wilson becomes available? What if Aaron Rogers becomes available? Like they probably have set themselves up, given they have many high picks next year,

to just say, hey, look, there is a chance here, which I think is interesting. But Graham, the best outcome for the Philadelphia Eagles for the future is not using your multiple high draft picks next year to trade for Deshawn Watson or Aaron Rogers. That's not the best possible outcome for the Philadelphia Eagles. The best possible outcome for the Philadelphia Eagles is Jalen Hertz plays well this year, and then you use those high picks to supplement the roster around Jalen Hertz. That's the best possible outcome. it looks like right now with each passing day that that's the path they're going to go down in 2021. Let's see if Jalen Hertz can be the guy. And for our game, that makes him pretty damn

exciting. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah, it does. And I know Tom mentioned just a bit ago, kind of teased it like Hertz has been one of his guys in the seventh and eighth round. And yeah, I couldn't agree more. My strategy this year has been different than pretty much all my previous years playing fantasy. Like I've been a late round quarterback guy for a very long time. And then, know the past couple of years, it's, it's been more like a mid-round quarterback strategy. Like, I love Josh Allen, you know, last year. Love DAC and Lamar on like round 9, 10, 11. The previous year.

So, you know, the market's adjusting, but it hasn't really overly adjusted for Hertz. In fact, his ADPs kind of dipped in the last, like, couple of weeks. He was like, you know, consistently round seven. Now I'm seeing him in round eight, round nine sometimes even. Yeah, give me all of that. I mean, you know, it's super a small sample, but, you know, Jalen Hurts, in terms of efficiency, was like right there in terms of fantasy points per dropback with like Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannanhill last year. And obviously he has, you know,

that one, you know, kind of league winning aspect in his game in his back pocket. We know he's a fantastic scrambler. So yeah, I mean, even if he takes a step forward, a small step forward as a passer, instead of, you know, completing like 55, 58 percent misthroats. So he completes like 60 to 62. Even if he takes that small step, like that floor of his rushing ability, is just so damn good. I mean, it just almost doesn't even matter how good the passer he is because he's such a dynamic runner. So, yeah, I mean, if I miss out on Lamar and Kyler and Dak and those guys and kind of like that round

four through six pocket, I've been dipping into like Russell Wilson and Hertz. And usually Hertz goes a couple rounds after Wilson. So that's kind of been my game plan at quarterback this year as Hertz is kind of like my second third tier option. Yeah, and like, by the way, I thought, Tom, I was going to have, you know, I thought I was going to start to pull away from Hertz a little bit here because, you know, I was drafted him a lot early and something, and I like to diversify. But if his ADP keeps falling because now with the Devante Smith ding up,

I mean, I guess I'm just going to go all in. I mean, Tom, it, you know, I feel like the Watson stuff the last week or two was, you know, part of that, you know, the reason why he's slipping here a little bit. And, you know, I'm going to eat that up here. I mean, I think that was all generated by Watson's camp. They're just trying to drum up anything that they can to get him out of Houston. So, you know, I've started to see him creeping into the ninth round here, some of the, some of my best ball drafts.

So I'm right there with you guys. You guys know his over unders for his rushing production this year? I mean, it's pretty silly. It's 655 rushing touchdown. So that's Tom, he could do that in 10 games. Oh, I know. I was literally just about to say he could be at that by like week 12. So that just tells you the upside that this guy has for our game.

Like that seems pretty low. If he played 17 games, like he could easily crush that. Well, Tom, I am going to, once we get off this pot, I'm about to get on my phone and I'm going to max bet the hell out of that. So, yeah, I mean, Jalen Hertz and, by the way, if you're building in the fact that, oh, they might trade for Deshaun Watson, again, I think that would be stupid and I wouldn't do that now. You would think Hertz is probably part of the package. so like he could even go to Houston and start.

So like anyway, I mean, Jalen Hertz is going to be a quarterback in Philadelphia. How well he does is up to you. And I think, but we know he's not lacking for confidence. He's not lacking for a good attitude. He's going to work his ass off. So that's what's interesting about Jalen Hertz. Now, guys, I was talking to Scott Barrett yesterday. And Tom, he mentioned a guy who I think the industry is polarized on.

And it's one of those guys where if you were to come out and tell me you're high on them or you were to come out and tell me you're low on them. I don't think I could blame you for either. And that's Miles Sanders. And there's like, he had one of those seasons where you could kind of paint whatever narrative you want about his, about his 2020 season. He had it, he averaged 5.3 yards per carry. You know, he was over five yards per carry when Jalen Hertz was in the game.

He was terrible as a receiver last year, Tom. But he was great as a receiver in 2019. And I think you can chalk up a lot of the terrible. receiving production for Miles Sanders last year to the lack of chemistry with Carson Wentz to the bad scheme. But then you also look at they bring it, you know, the offensive line should be better this year if it's healthier, but you bring in Kenny Gainwell. He's a guy who's going in like that third and fourth round range, which I think is fair. I can see both sides of the coin here from Miles Sanders. Yeah, I've been on the more of the negative side. I just, I just hate how much

depth they've had added it running back this offseason. It wasn't just Kenny Gainwell. You know, They still have Boston Scott. They get Carry on Johnson, who, you know, was released by the Lions this offseason second round pit, you know, former second round. Still on Jordan Howard. They signed Jordan Howard, who could be a pain in the ass at the goal line. So, you know, I'm not expecting all five of those guys to make the roster. Somebody's probably going to be the odd man out there. But I just hate that there are so many options behind him, you know, little skeptical about his receiving upside now this year, you know, coming off a rough year.

last year and now Jalen Hertz you know he's going to be more you know he's going to want to tuck it and run more often than dumping it down to Miles Sanders so you know the receiving upside isn't nearly as high but I'm with you the rushing upside is you know it gets it's improved here with hurts at quarterback I do think the offensive line is going to be stronger but um yeah I haven't been drafted a whole lot of Miles Sanders I'm yeah I'm in the more in the negative camp but you know If he slips into the fourth round, I can't pass that up. I've gotten him in the fifth round a couple of times. Like, that's the thing about Sanders is I don't think you need to be bullish on him to draft him.

Like, I'm taking him 10 times out of 10 over Josh Jacobs. Yeah, yeah, that's, yeah, that's for sure. That's like right where that tier kind of drops off. It's like Montgomery and Sanders, like the two guys at the end of that tier, and then it goes to Jacobs. I've had to bump up Montgomery a little bit. Yeah. Yeah, me too.

My thing with Sanders, too, man, is. like the third, fourth round is like a sweet spot for receivers. Like most of the time I'm just taking the receiver in that range. And it's not necessarily like a knock so much against Sanders because I'm with Tom. I'm kind of on the negative side of things. But it's just like where he goes, it's just, it's tough because all all those great, great receivers. Like Adam Phelan for Miles Sanders. Like, man, I'm taking dealing.

And any interest in some of these other receivers here given the Devante Smith reports? I mean, Travis Fulgum's free. talk about a weird season for him last year. And then Jalen Rager, you know, Greg Kosell watched his tape and said, he said, I think Cocell assinuated his tape was better than the perception of this rookie season. It's just a weird team. Like, it's the team where I can be talked into so many of the players on this roster. And I don't think any of them are overly expensive.

What do you think about the tight end situation? This is one I've been. Oh, God. I've slid Dallas Goddard down. You know, I've moved Logan Thomas and Noah Fann ahead of him here because it sure feels like Zach Hertz is going to be here, at least for the first two months of the season. Maybe I'll try to move them at the deadline.

But, you know, I don't know if you have any thoughts there or what they're going to do. Like, you know, Kaplan was telling us all offseason they're going to trade Earths, and they must not have gotten any bites whatsoever. You know, Zach Hertz has reported the training camp, by the way, bleached his hair blonde. He looks like he's in 98 degrees. And like, I think Zach Ertz comes out and says, you know, we've squashed the beef I had with

Harry Roseman. And I almost wonder if that was like kind of a joint plan between Ertz and Roseman to say, look, Zach, Roseman says, we're trying to get you out of here. If the, if the the league thinks that you're unhappy and we're going to cut you anyway. You know, we're not going to do that. You're too good for us to cut. Like, let's just act like you're going to be here. And then we'll try to flip you for a six. Yeah, try to flip me for a six round pick.

Like, something like that. That makes sense. I almost, like, that's just speculation. But, you know, Jimmy Kempski, who covers the team for Philly Voices, has been saying, you know, from a salary cap perspective, it doesn't make sense for Zach Ertz to be on this team this year. Like, because, you know, you can roll over cap space. roll over cap space and have more next year when ostensibly you're going to be a better team,

whether that's with Jalen Hertz or another quarterback. He says it doesn't make sense. I'm still waiting for that shoe to drop. But as of right now, I mean, if Zachertz is on this roster guys, he's going to play. Do I think he should play over Dallas Goddard? No, but he's still one of your best receivers even after a disaster season last year. And in best ball, you know, I've thrown some darts at Zach Ertz as like the 12. 28th tight end off the board because if he's in Philly, he's going to catch a few passes.

And if he goes somewhere else, you're going to bump him up in your rankings anyway. So Tom, that's how I've been handling it. Yeah, I'm with you there. It's just been a bizarre situation. It looked like he was good as gone early in the off season. And just no takers here. And, you know, the, you know, Indianapolis situation, they seem pretty content there right now. This Grayson that's getting a lot of buzz in camp as a rookie.

You know, the bills go out and get Jacob. Paulister, you know, Josh Allen's buddy from Wyoming, you know, after they couldn't get a deal done. So it almost feels like the market has dried up a bit, but we know that always, that can change here. But even by the end of August here with camps, you know, getting underway here.

We're starting to see the injuries come out if there's anything that happens in the preseason. So, you know, I'm treating the situation right now like he's going to be on the roster this season. That's why I've slid down Goddard a bit. But, you know, it could easily change here over the next couple of weeks depending on injuries and other camps. All right, guys, that'll wrap up the Philadelphia Eagles report here on franchise focus

podcast series at the Fantasy Points Podcasts. Make sure you go to the website and check out the written report. Just an absolute assload of content. I just can't even, I can't even like describe it. We're trying to pump these out. We can't even get them out the door fast enough because we've got to get to other stuff. So we're all hands on deck to finish these up here over the next week. Hope you've been enjoying listening to the podcast.

at Tom Brawley on Twitter, at Grand Barfield on Twitter, at FantasyPTS on Twitter, and I'm at FG underscore Dolan on Twitter. Thank you for joining us here at FantasyPoint.com, and we will talk to you tomorrow. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform, and come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.