Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Franchise Focus: San Francisco 49ers

Episode Date: August 6, 2021

Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) and Tom Brolley (@TomBrolley) preview the San Francisco 49ers 2021 season in the companion podcast to the 2021 Franchise Focus piece on FantasyPoints.com. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time to the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome back to the franchise-focused podcast series. I am not Joe Dolan. In fact, I am Graham Bartfield. Joe has a super busy day to day. He's on the show with John.

He's all over the place today. So Tom and I are going to be breaking down the next couple of teams as we round out a franchise focus series. And again, guys, we've been like a broken record on these podcasts. If you haven't, check these out. They are by far the best and the most detailed team preview series that you will find for the fantasy season to get you wrong. We break down every single projected player. Tom's got, you know, not only, you know, some, some, a very small taste of his betting previews in here.

I'm doing pace and tendencies and key stats. Our guy, Wes Huber, is doing scheme notes. And John's rounding us out with some final points on the team. So, yeah, get in, see the franchise focus series. And if you want to check out Tom's betting side previews, that is on the premium side of the site. And he has been releasing those with, like, in conjunction with these franchise focus series.

So Tom, today we're talking San Francisco 49. So let's get right into it. We'll start out at the top. Right now, the Niners' win total is 10.5. They are plus 650 to win the NFC championship, plus 1,400 to win the Super Bowl. And neither of those things have changed very much. Even with Trey Lance doing Trey Lance things in training camp, I don't think their win total or their Super Bowl odds have changed all that much. You know, they're healthy this year, Tom, and I think these are pretty efficient lines here.

Yeah, you don't see this too often, you know, a team that goes six in three. and, you know, has a very disappointing season that, you know, underwhelms compared to their, you know, their preseason odds, you know, going into the 2020 season and then, you know, nothing changes in the off season. But, you know, it's gotten the, you know, the odds makers have gotten a lot smarter here. The betters have gotten a lot smarter here. They know, you know, a lot of the 49ers troubles last year were, you know, pretty much all related to their injury issues. You know, they had the most man games missed last year. I think it was 326 games overall, you know, with, you know, starters missing the lineup.

Nick Bosa, George Kittle, Garapolo, D4, Debo Samuel, Moster, you know, just a who's who on their roster that missed games last year. So, you know, of course, they played the long season the year before they, you know, go into February, play the Chiefs. So, you know, we've seen this in the past where, you know, these teams that make these deep runs. You know, the old Super Bowl hangover. And they certainly felt it last year. But, you know, they reloaded this off season. You know, bringing Trey Lance trade up to get him. That was the one area where they think that they can get over the top here.

Jimic Ropoulos, you know, he's flashed at times. But, you know, now it's two out of three years here where he hasn't been able to complete the season. And, you know, he kind of, you know, he left some throws out in the field in that Super Bowl two years. ago. So, you know, that was kind of the, their top goal for this offseason. Get that quarterback to take him over the top here. Yeah, I mean, if he hits that, you know, bomb to, I think it was Manny Sanders and that Chiefs game, I mean, he hits that bomb.

It wasn't like a terrible throw. It was just a yard or two over, but he was wide open. And yeah, that's the difference in the game there. Exactly, yeah. I mean, that was the difference. That would have changed the complexion of that game and possibly brought the Niners a, another Super Bowl ring back home. But yeah, you know, like you mentioned, I mean, it's just I think everybody knows what the

Niners a year looked like last year. I mean, they were down to like to Michael Hastie in backfield last year. I mean, it was just a full on, full-blown disaster with so many injuries. So, yeah, 10.5 win total seems pretty efficient. Tom, we can't go through this whole podcast without talking about the Lance and Jimmy G's situation. You know, by all accounts, you know, I think you and I think you and I. see this pretty similarly.

I think by all accounts, Trey Lance is going to start fairly early. Now, whether or not that's week one remains to be seen. Kyle Shanahan so far has not necessarily been tipping his hand by any means. A couple days ago, he mentioned that, hey, Trey Lance isn't going to get any first team reps. And then literally the next day, he got first team.

Oh, yeah, he's like literally trying to bluff people. I mean, it's like, come on. He's just bluffing right now. Yeah, it's like, what are we even? doing here. So yeah, I mean, it's going to be Lance at some point. He's starting to creep up in drafts. I mean, let's just talk quickly, you know, about his upside and just the obvious appeal in this offense here. Yeah, I see you've added to our futures bets as well. You have an interest in this this quarterback competition. I do. I do. I don't get those kind of odds. It's for the starting

quarterback position. Trey Lance is a big underdog here. Pennsylvania, unfortunately, I don't get those kind of odds. Really? So they don't, you can bet props. It has to be settled on the field in Pennsylvania. Oh, that's right. You were explaining that to me. Okay. Yeah. I couldn't do a lot of the draft stuff in Pennsylvania here. That's so bizarre. It's just it's like kind of the same thing. It's just, I don't know. I mean, it's technically is settled on the field, though, if you think about it. Yeah, I know. If he's on the field for the first snap of the game, yeah, that's kind of settled on the field. But I guess it's, you know, they can, you know, rumors and, you know, news leaks or whatever. But it's getting, it feels like it's the last week or so of this quarterback competition's gotten a little bit closer.

As you said, they were not going to play him on the first team snaps, but that has changed. And, you know, the reports coming out of camp are that, you know, he's making all the throws, not too many incompletions. And, you know, Shanahan's kind of showing, you know, why he drafted on me. He wants to do these design runs. They're showing those a bit in camp as well. So he just adds another level to this offense. And, you know, just, you know, Jim McGropold is a statue back there. He's, you know, it has to be well-defined for him.

You know, he's kind of like these, you know, Kirk Cousins types that, you know, everything has to be kind of perfect for him to make things happen. And Trey Lance isn't that guy. He's got the second reaction ability. You can do design runs with him. He can make things happen. So it's only a matter of time before he's the court. It's starting to feel like he's trending towards being that week one starter.

But, you know, the thing is, they have such an easy schedule this year. I guess that would be the concern. You know, if Garoplo gets the week one nod and they get off to a fairly nice start, they have, I believe, road games against the Eagles and the Lions. So two very winnable games. And, you know, that's kind of the concern, I guess, if you're backing glance. but, you know, we talked about Fields earlier in this series and how both Lance and Fields were being underdrafted. And that's significantly changed here over the last month since we started these podcasts.

Yeah. His, both of their prices have risen basically by a round or two here in recent weeks. Yeah, especially Lance. You know, I was getting Lance in the 13th, 14th round of, you know, best ball 10 drafts, you know, just, you know, last month. Yeah, routinely is. QB2, QB3 on some of those teams. And now, you know, he's creeping up into the 12th. I still think there's a lot of value in that price.

But, yeah, you know, they start the year, Lions, Eagles, and they play the Packers in week three. It gets a little tougher from there, Packers, Seahawks, Cardinals. But then they get the Colts who might not have their, you know, two of their three three, you know, two of their five offensive linemen and Wence is a big question mark, obviously. So, yeah, I mean, you know, it starts pretty easy. They have three pretty tough games in week three through five. then it evens back.

I mean, honestly, if I'm a coach and I'm looking at this and if we know we're going to go to Trey Lance anyway at some point this season, I want him to get starts against the Lions and Eagles. I was just thinking the same thing. Yeah, I mean, I want him to get his feet wet. I want him to get comfortable. I don't want to throw him into the fire

against the Packers or one of these two divisional games before their by week. Exactly. My concern with Lances, you know, if they don't start him week one, you almost might have to wait until week seven before he starts. But even then, I still like the upside. I mean, I've been comparing him with like, you know, one of these top five or six,

you know, with the Dak Prescott's and Lamar Jackson's, Kyle Murray's guys that can carry my team through the first, you know, how many weeks that I need them. And then I get those high upside weeks with Trey Lance whenever he does finally start. So even if it's week seven, you know, I'm still willing to take that chance. Yeah, me too. And I'm all over Lance and bestball. I have an assload of Lance teams and bestball. We had that podcast in early July, I would guess that between Lance and Fields,

I would probably have those guys on like 80% of my teams. Yeah, I'm right there with you. It was just like auto pick and 13, 14th round. Yeah, it's definitely dipped here recently with their 80p surging. But I'd say I'm still probably around 60%. So it's a lot. Yeah, I'm quite heavy too. In my managed league, though, my plan is like,

I want one of those, you know, mid-round quarterbacks like we've been talking about on all these shows, you know, the Lamar, or the Allens or whatever. My plan, though, is if I don't get one of those guys or I don't get Wilson or Rogers and, like, a couple rounds later, I'm just, like, going to Tanna Hill, Lance is like my pairing because, you know, Tannahill is going to start the year and he's going to do, you know, normal back in QB1 things, but then I want that baked down upside for whatever Lance is healthy. So, you know, it's just a matter of time with Trillance. I think that's basically what we're saying. Let's talk quickly about these backs, too, because Tom, I mean, we all know what these 49ers backs as a whole can do.

Over the last two years, the Niners are fourth and third and total fantasy points as a team, as a running back kind of group. They're fourth and third in fantasy points, which is just crazy. I mean, that's up there with the Saints, you know, the Chargers a couple years ago. You know, the production as a whole is fantastic, but the problem is, You know, these parts that play in the hole are often not very usable. I mean, last year, you know, it was not probably the best year to use this example, but, you know, Jeff Wilson led the team in fantasy points per game. Obviously, Rahimus Starrant missed a bunch of time.

Derek McKinnon came in and started, but then he missed some time. You know, and now, you know, the drafters in the market know this, right? Like intuitively, most start and Sermon are going six, seventh, eighth round, just depending on what type of leagues you're playing in. But, you know, that being said, you know, six, seventh, eighth round, that's like right exactly where a lot of these guys have been finishing. You know, RB-25, RB30 range. It's certainly not in a super valuable price, but it's also not, you know, completely ridiculous.

So Sermon versus Mosterate, Tom, where are you at? Because I actually don't think you and I've talked about how we have these two guys ripped out. So do you have a Mose Sturt first or Sermin? I have Sermon first. I have Sermon first. Okay. Kind of like a bigger look at just the way they're kind of building the backfield. I think this offseason they go out and add Wayne Gullman, who's a bigger back.

He's, you know, 6-1, you know, 6-1. He's in that 215 to 220 range. And, you know, they draft Trey Sermon, who's, you know, another bigger back. And I think they kind of have these guys kind of paired off in twos here. I think they want Sermon and Gullman to be those guys that get the 15 carries a game. They carry the load a little bit more in this backfield. And I think after, you know, the way the injuries piled up, you know, with Mostert and with Jeff Wilson and Jarek McKinnon last year, you know, all three guys that are on the smaller side of things in terms of running backs, I think they wanted to beef up the backfield. And they kind of want to use, you know, Mostert.

and Jeff Wilson, kind of more in that slasher role, come in, you know, in that eight to ten carry a game range, you know, kind of as the change of pace. So that's why I kind of have Sermon a little bit higher. I think they've won him. They envision him as a guy that can take on a bigger workload. And maybe he's the goal line guy. But that's why I kind of been leaning towards Sermon. We'll see how it all shakes out here. You know, Moster, I think they'd rather him,

because he's one of the most explosive backs in the league. They kind of want to preserve those touches, use them in spots, and, you know, really catch defenses off guard. So, you know, I still like both of them. I've been, I have a lot more sermon than I do Moster just because they're going around a similar price. But I have no, the problem is, you touch on, they just have so much depth in this backfield. It's tough to see one of these guys getting into that Roster's. B-1 range, but I still feel like just the way that the offenses run, how efficient they are,

they're going to be pretty safe, like mid-to-low-end RB2s, you know, even if they're splitting up the workload. Yeah, you know, I've had most stared ahead of Sermon all summer, and I've got to admit I've pinched it a lot closer. I think I've got them like back-to-back in our best ball ranks now for pretty much all the reasons you laid out. I mean, Sermon had, you know, by all accounts, a pretty good O'SRM. he's getting a little bit of burn here with the ones.

You know, but, you know, there's, Shanahan is wise to just, you know, be very conservative. Yeah, be conservative with all these guys like right now just to keep them healthy. Yeah, the way, I think, I think the way I'm playing it in my head at least, and I don't know if this makes any sense, but the way I've been playing at my head is like, okay, you know, seventh, eighth round and best ball, like, I kind of want guaranteed points in that range. And I still think there's some wide receivers and like Russell Wilson,

Aaron Rogers, like some guys that I feel a lot more comfortable about. So the way that I've been building my teams in basketball there is like, I'll dabble with those two guys. But I kind of like the upside of Sermon in season-long leagues and just kind of like stashing him as like an RB3 or before because, you know, if he does get that 1A role, you know, this is the most that Shanahan's had invested in a back in this backfield the last couple of years. That's very true. Yeah.

All these guys have been UDFAs or, you know, real late-round picks. Yeah. So even Wayne Goldman, you know, he was a one-year deal, you know, limited guaranteed money. Yeah, they, you know, and they gave Mostert a little bit of extra money. But at the same time, like, yeah, this sermon is by far the most he's had invested. And if there's anybody that's really going to pop late down the, down the stretch, it's probably going to be sermon. So I kind of like him as like an upside stash for season long. Yeah.

I guess this. We don't touch about, talk about dynasty leagues too much. But, I mean, he's in a pretty good spot here. He's the only, you know, one of these guys, only one of them that is under contract after this season. So, you know, we did our dynasty league. And I think we were, I think he went in the top three or four picks. And we were all kind of a little surprised. But, I mean, I guess if you look a little bit deeper, I mean, he's going to be the man here.

Nobody else is under contract. They use the third round pick on him. So, you know, he's the man. And this is, as you touched on it, you know, this has been a top five, offensive for, you know, since Shannon's been there. So you want pieces of this backfill when you can get it. Yeah, absolutely. All right, Tom, that's going to do it.

We will be back tomorrow with an, or actually, this is coming out on a Friday. So we'll be back next week. How about that with the Seahawks and the Bucks? I want to thank everybody for listening once again to these podcasts. These have been a lot of fun to do. For Tom, I'm Graham. We will catch you next week with the Seahawks. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast.

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