Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Franchise Focus: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Episode Date: August 9, 2021

Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) and Tom Brolley (@TomBrolley) preview the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2021 season in the companion podcast to the 2021 Franchise Focus piece on FantasyPoints.com. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Yo, welcome back, everybody. We are rounding out, rounding out the franchise-focused podcast series. Joe Dolan has got a busy day today. So it's, again, Tom and I, Grand Barfield here to break down the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. You're reigning Super Bowl champions.

Brady gets his millionth ring on his new team in his first year. But, you know, we're already looking ahead. We're looking ahead to the 2021 season. And Tom, let's get started. Let's get right into it here with the Bucs. Season total right now, their win total is at 12, has not moved. Actually, moved from 11.5 to 12 from, from, from, late March to now.

Probably the saint stuff. Yeah, the, saint stuff and just, yeah, Falcons also trading Julio. That's probably a small. Yeah, it's been a good off season for him. Yeah. It has, man. It hasn't.

And the NFC, the NFC is a whole. It's not just the NFC South. It just seems like the NFC is just like really kind of falling apart here. I mean, it's the bucks are super heavy favorites. And man, that's about it. And you're seeing that in the odds. So Super Bowl odds in early February were plus 900. They're now dropped plus 600.

And the bucks are minus 175 to win the NFC South. That's like 65ish percent. Maybe a little bit closer, like 60 percent to win the NFC South. But yeah, you know, you mentioned it Tom. Saints, no Michael Thomas, quarterback changed on the horizon. Panthers are, you know, their defense is going to be much better this year the Panthers are, but they're relying on Darnold. And the Falcons are seemingly stuck in purgatory.

So, yeah, bucks. Man, I mean, it's just, it's pretty straightforward. I mean, they're one of the Super Bowl favorites, and they've got the highest win total on board. Yeah, I'll give out a little nugget here since, you know, if you've been listening this long, I gave out their NFC South odds to win. It's a big price you got to lay, but Jesus, I mean, I don't see the Panthers, the Falcons, you know, and now what the team is mess.

I mean, I was looking at the odds for the Chiefs. They're minus 275, and I think they have a much tougher pass to winning. the AFC West with the Chargers and with the Broncos in the past. So I think these are great odds at the minus. Actually, I need to update those numbers. It's more in the 190 range now. I gave it out at minus 190, but I still think it's a pretty good value while it's, you know, basically under 250.

So, you know, I just see no reason why this team, I mean, Brady getting hurt. I mean, that's essentially the only, I mean, even there's schedule is pretty easy. I mean, I was thinking about giving the over on their win total, but, you know, 12 is a big number. So I'll stick to the AFC South, play the big price there. But, you know, they're heavy favorites in the NFC and the NFC South and the second favorites to win the Super Bowl for good reason. You know, they basically, well, they did. They brought back all their starters from last year.

First time in the free agency era since 1994. So it just doesn't happen. I mean, I guess it's the Brady effect. They all want to stay and play with this guy. And everybody loves Bruce Ariens that plays for them. So usually when these teams win the Super Bowl, it's, hey, time to go make my money, go cash in somewhere else, get the big contract because, you know, the team that won the Super Bowl usually can't retain everybody.

So a bit of a change there, you know, with all 22 coming back. And, you know, they're neck and neck with the Chiefs, basically, right now for Super Bowl odds. there's no reason they shouldn't be. Yeah. It's like how Aaron Rogers said in his press conference last week. It's like, yeah, people want to come play with me here in Green Bay. It's not like we're a big vacation destination. But the problem is Tampa Bay actually is, especially down near Clearwater.

If you want to have a little fun, go out to Ebor City. There's a little bit of everything in Tampa. But yeah, it's exactly that. I mean, guys just want to play with Tampa for Tom. They don't have to pay taxes either. That's a nice thing. Oh, yeah, baby. That is a huge, yeah, that's a huge pay a wallet booster there,

that no stand income tax there in Florida. You don't see people going up to Tennessee to play with Ryan Tandhill as much, though, because Tennessee doesn't have state income tax. I haven't been to Nashville. I hear it's a pretty fun town. It sounds like more like one of those places you want to go for, you know, an extended weekend and not for a whole year. Oh, Tom.

I did a huge road trip, as you know, stopped in Nashville twice. And yeah, I had just a couple of amazing nights in Nashville. That's a super, super fun city. Yeah, I don't know if I'd want to do that 365, though. Oh, yeah, no, you don't. That's a one out of 365 or maybe a one out of 700 type of thing. But yeah, Nashville is a lot of fun. All right, so let's get back to the task of hand here, Tampa Bay.

You know, you mentioned even the odds moving from, you know, NFC South champions to, you know, minus 180, minus 1.80, minus 1.90. And I would bet that to minus 225 because to your point, the chiefs are super heavy favorites in a way tougher division. I just don't, I don't see very many paths to, you know, maybe the Saints just get super hot. You know, that's always possible and they, you know, kind of sneak up there again. But, man, I mean, I think I'm, I'm definitely with you on the bucks for the NFC South. Once we get off here, Tom, I'm going to go find some odds on that. I'm going to go find the right price on that.

So, all right. So for fantasy, though, look, you know what you're getting into with this team. They just have so many pieces. I mean, they're going to go three deep at running back. They've got Evans, Godwin, and Antonio Brown is their top three receivers. And let's start there, Tom. You know, all of these guys, Evans and Godwin, are pretty fairly priced. Evans goes, he usually goes ahead of Godwin.

but not by much. It's usually like, you know, they're the wide receiver 15 through 20 off the board. So it's not a big spread like it sometimes ends, excuse me, like it sometimes is with the Rams guys, you know, Woods and a cup. You kind of get like a round and a half sometimes a difference. It's not that way with the bucks. But that being said, I, you and I are going to agree on this, but like Mike Evans, by far gets the highest value targets on this team.

It's just whether or not he's going to get a lot. of them this season because, you know, Antonio Brown joined the team in the middle of the year. Godwin missed, you know, quite a bit of time last year dealing with a few nagging injuries. You know, when they were all three playing and on the field, they had about eight or nine games in the back half of the last year when A.B. Evans and Godwin were in. Godmore playing. And from a high level, their target share is like identical. Like it was all like 18, 19, 20%. The big question is, you know, whether or not Evans comes back and gets all of those end zone targets.

So Tom, how are you handling? Let's start with Evans Godwin. How are you handling those two guys? Yeah, I've been attacking. You know, not attacking, but I've been taking Evans, you know, if he falls a little bit into that fourth round, that early fourth round range. You know, Chris Gobwin's a little tougher for me. He doesn't get those end zone targets quite like Mike Evans does.

And Evans gets the deeper shots down the field as well. So he gets more of those, you know, the big play shots that we're looking for in fantasy. So I've tended to lean towards Evans there. I do think he was played through some issues last year. He picked up hamstring and an ankle injury early in the year. He started to kind of hit his stride, you know, the last, you know, basically around, you know, Thanksgiving time there. He had a couple of those big performances, you know,

helped him get up over 1,000 yards again for the seven time NFL record. So, but I think he was playing through some stuff. And, you know, he started playing better towards the end of year. And then he picked up a knee injury right before the playoffs and played through that. But, you know, they really, you know, him and Brady, they did have that, you know, it was the old grunk play from, you know, with the Patriots there, you know, flank them out wide on the, on a cornerback there and just throw it up and let him make the play. And, you know, he's one of the best at doing that.

So, you know, I've tended to give Evans the nod there that they're going right around the same price. I mean, I mean, I'll have, I'll be on the last. lower end, you know, in terms of ownership with Chris Godwin, you know, I tend to wait for him to fall a little bit. You know, I'll take him after, you know, some DJ Moors and Deontay Johnson. So he's more of a, you know, a late fourth round target for me there. So I give Evans the little bit of a nod there. And it makes a big difference. I mean, they're going right around the same spot. So I'm going to end up with a lot more Evans than I do Godwin. Yeah, I think I'm with you. I have a few guys ahead of Evans and Godwin that I'm kind of, I won't say I'm like completely out on those two guys.

Evans is slightly higher, but I like Thielen. I like Woods a lot in that range. It's a really competitive range for drafts and receivers through there. So yeah, I'm with you. I have Evans a little bit higher, but at the same time, I still, I still love that entire range for the receivers. Let's quickly talk about Antonio Brown, because I know you and I are both. guy. Oh, yeah. This is, yeah, this is exactly my favorite guy. Yeah, I know. It was a, it was a rough couple years there for AB, but, you know, he's, he's seemingly straightened himself back out. But at least he stayed off the map. He stayed off the grid. Yes, there you go. Yeah, he stayed out of the news. He stayed out of TMZ. Let's put it that way. A.B. is the biggest difference in, in costs between Evans and God, I mean, AB goes eighth, ninth round.

in most leagues. And Tom, I know you and I are both heavily on that. I mean, he was, you know, over their final eight games, I mean, he got pretty much a full-time role. He got hurt in the playoffs, but, you know, obviously scored that touchdown in the Super Bowl. Man, I just think AB's just a fantastic value. And you're kind of getting, you know, a piece of this,

what will be a prolific bucks passing offense at a, you know, much bigger discount compared to, you know, the top two guys by ADP. Yeah, I mean, these three guys, They were running neck and neck, you know, in terms of targets there. All three of them were right around 20%. And Antonio Brown is, you know, he's not going to get the higher leveraged, you know, type of targets that Mike Evans is getting. But they were designing, you know, screen passes for it.

They were trying to get the ball in his hands last year. You know, I just don't see a massive difference between Godwin and Evans in terms of, you know, their value this year. And I'm seeing a massive difference. difference in ADP though. I mean, it's four or five rounds different sometimes. So, you know, I've had, I've had Brown basically ranked in the 80s here. You know, I would honestly move him into the 70s if I really needed to, but, you know, I don't think people really have to reach very much for him. He's, you know, he's widely available in that eighth, ninth round. I think, you know, he is 33 years old.

You know, he is getting more towards the back end of his career. I guess that would be the one concern and, you know, the other concern would be that he gets into trouble again. But so there's certainly more risk with him than when, with Evans and with Godwin. But, you know, we're at a part of the draft where you're missing all the time anyway. You know, these guys that are drafted in an eighth or ninth round, if you're, if you're hitting at a 50% clip there anyway, you're feeling pretty good. So I think there's some upside there. You know, it was, he got thrown into that offense too.

I mean, it was, you know, he missed the first eight games by suspension. he got kind of thrown right into the fire. And, you know, he held his own. So full off season, you know, you got the roommate narrative there with Tom Brady and their best buddies. So, you know, they probably were working out all summer together. So, you know, I like the price. As much as it pains me as a Steelers fan, I'm up AB backer this year.

So it's gross, but I have to do it. My pocket matters more than my heart sometimes. I am the same way, man. I am the same way. I am always pocket over heart. And AB is, yeah, like you mentioned, you hit the nail on the head. He's just, he's the upside player. And, you know, he's, you're getting that baked in.

You know, everybody remembers the Raiders fiasco and his off-the-field issues. You're getting all that baked into his price. Yeah, he's disliked him. You know, a lot of people don't like him. Yeah. And I get that. I mean, I wouldn't want to have a beer with the guy. That's the last player in the NFL, him and O'Dell Beckamer, like the last two guys in the NFL I'd want to have a beer with.

But, you know, I'm trying to win some money here. And A.B. is a fantastic wide receiver four. All right, let's transition over to the backfield here real quickly, Tom. We kind of know what we're getting ourselves into if you want to take any of these guys here. Fournette Jones or eighth, ninth round picks, Gio goes in the 14th through like 17th round. Sometimes, you know, somebody's a little bit higher on a bit. And you might be, but I got. admit for best ball i've been taking these guys quite a bit um just because i i want pieces of a very high

scoring offense um four net jones especially they're going to score their touchdowns but i have no clue when they'll be um you know the only way i think four net and jones really carve out like a consistent role for season long manage leagues is if one of them gets hurt so yeah for that reason that's kind of the way i'm playing it for for best ball um and season long how do you see this backfield and is there anybody here that you want like just you know off the cuff Yeah, I mean, you have it completely right. This is a best ball team, best football backfield, and this is a stay the hell away for season long backfield.

Like, I want no part of these guys trying to figure out, you know, which week that they're going to go off. And, you know, I think as weird as this is to say, Ronald Jones might be the most stable going into the season. I know. You and I have both never been rojo, guys. It's crazy. I feel the same way.

I feel the same way. I just feel like his role might be the most solidified and like just the way the team's going to, you know, like we said off the top. They're going to, this is a 12 win team. They're going to be playing with a lot of positive game scripts. And so, you know, in those situations that, you know, when they're double digit favorites and I know, I have a good feeling that Rojo might be getting 15 plus carries. And, you know, if they're playing against a run defense that's shitty, you know, I have a little, you know, as weird as it is. I have a little bit more confidence in Jones in those season long situations. So I guess I would lean towards him for season long, but, you know, I've been taking shots.

I've been leaning more four-net in best ball situations, I guess, just because if there is an injury that does happen, you know, be it to Bernard or to Jones, like he's going to take over that rule. He's kind of like, as weird as it is to say, he's kind of like the handcuffed for both of those guys. see him kind of mixing in in the early down situations with Jones. And I see him kind of mixing in in the passing situations with Dio Bernard. So, you know, so he's kind of, and I think he's going to play a lot, too,

if he saw it in the postseason. Like when it was, you know, when it mattered, they turned to Leonard Fournette instead of Ronald Jones. So they're going to trust them. And if there is a situation where there is an injury, I think he's going to get kind of elevated here. So he's been my preferred back here, but, you know, maybe you can get into Geo a little bit, but this is a tough backfield here to decipher it.

I mean, actually, it really isn't, but it's going to be a tough backfield to manage here throughout the year. That's exactly it. It's going to be tough to decipher where those points are coming from. And, like, you know, with Geo, Gio is a really good pass blocker in Cincinnati, and that's kind of a part of the reason he played so much on third downs and kind of like block. Joe Mixon from really hitting the ceiling. Joe is just a great pass blocker, super consistent there. And obviously he has really good hands.

I kind of think that Brady went out and said, hey, like, the one thing I felt like I was missing last year of all their great weapons and their fantastic defense, he probably said the one thing I felt like I was missing is having a true, like, third down back. Like, Fournette is not that guy. Ronald Jones has bricks for hands. He's never been a good pass catcher even dating back to his time at USC. That being said, Rojo was a much better early down runner than Fournette last year.

He was way more efficient if you look at pretty much any metric. So I'm with you. I think Rojo is safer for like the early down stuff. But Gio is that guy, man. He's that guy who's going to play in some obvious passing down situations. He'll play under two minutes. He'll play and hurry up. I like Bernard quite a bit for best ball, like just super, super late.

And I kind of view him as like an arbitrage handcuff type of guy because of Fournette or Jones missed extended time. I mean, we've seen Bernard handle 10, 12, 15 carries too. So I've kind of, I'm all, honestly, I'm in on all these guys. I rank them. It's weird. Like for best ball, I'm in on all of them at price. But for season long, I think Gio is the guy.

I've kind of just been like, okay, final round, I won't take a defense. I'll just sit and hold Gio and just kind of see what happens and see how this backfield shakes out to start the year. So that's, that's kind of where I'm at. And to your point, you know, during free agency, I mean, that was the hot rumor that they wanted to get James White. And, you know, they were courting him. And he ended up staying in New England there, staying with the team that he knew. But so it was, I don't know if it was a priority, but it was something that they definitely, a player, a type of player that they definitely wanted.

And Geo kind of just fell into their lap. I think he got cut the first week of April there. And he was signed, you know, less than a week later. So, you know, it was like a marriage made in heaven there. So they missed out on, you know, James White for that type of role. And they were able to get Gio Bernard, you know, who's basically an older version of it. Maybe not as a dynamic, but he's, you know, he's just as effective as, you know, as a pass walker. And, you know, he can do the small things that Tom Brady's looking for on third downs.

Yeah. And Gio, you know, like you mentioned, he signed really quickly. But it was to a deal that was like, I kind of think undermarket. He got more, he got less money than like James Connor and Malcolm Brown did. I mean, it wasn't by much, but I mean, for the type of player he's been, I think we can safely say Bernard's better than Malcolm Brown and more versatile than Malcolm Brown. So, yeah, I mean, he probably took a, you know, maybe a million dollar pay cut just to go down to Tampa Bay and play with, you play with, uh, play with, uh, play with, you play with winner.

So you get tired of, you get tired of getting your ass kicked every week. I feel the same one. You found the ultimate winner in Tom Brady. So, I mean, there you go. Yeah. I'll take a little bit less money for a chance to chase a soup. Yeah, no doubt. And kind of, you know, maybe rehab is value a little bit and bang the cash register one more time.

As he enters his age 29 season. But that'll do it. Full breakdown of the bucks. Once again, guys, you don't want to miss out. Franchise Focus. Articles are up on the site. So this is just a companion run alongside as you're, you know, reading through that article, Pop Tom and I in your ear holes.

and kind of guide you through a little bit more of the bucks. But also Tom has his fantastic betting previews up on the site too. There are companion pieces. They're up on the premium side of the site. So, yeah, you don't want to miss out on those. And, you know, I know Tom gave away his nugget on the NFC self. Hopefully Graham doesn't move the markets before we get this on Monday. Oh, Tom, I'm coming in.

I'm rolling in thousands of dollars on the bucks here. I'm going to make a seismic shift here. Yeah. No, but I am going to look for the box here. I'm definitely going to look for the box this afternoon. Okay, that'll do it. For Tom, you can follow them on Twitter at Tom Browley. You can follow me on Twitter at Grand Barfield. Follow the site on the sweater machine as well at Fantasy Points.

And we will catch you tomorrow as we continue to round out the franchise focus podcast series. Catch you next time. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points Podcast. Remember to subscribe, wait, and review on your. favorite platform and come join the roster at fantasy points.com.