Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Free Agency Review: Part 1

Episode Date: March 18, 2021

Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan) and Tom Brolley (@TomBrolley) are back to break down an action-packed start to free agency. The guys break down the big signings from New England and Washington before jumping into the signings of Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, Aaron Jones, and Jamaal Williams. They end the pod by discussing the wide receivers moves by Marvin Jones, John Brown, Emmanuel Sanders and Corey Davis. Joe and Tom will be back next week to discuss the remaining big signing from the 2021 free agency period. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast, brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. The new league year has started on the Fantasy Points podcast. It's windy, apparently, at Tom's place. Well, well, there was wind down here too, Tom in South Carolina. I had a tornado warning down here, not used to those, but it seems to have passed over here. Welcome to the south there, Joe.

Yeah, which is good. It's good that it's passed over because it would suck to get a tornado. You know, you buy a house for the first time in your life and six months into owning the house. It gets blown down. I was not prepared for that, and I'm glad it didn't happen. But there's going to be a lot of people in the NFL buying houses, Tom, because a lot of free agents, have moved. And maybe there are some free agents who stuck around in their in their current locations who might have been renting who are now looking to buy a house after signing long-term contracts. So

it's an exciting time of year in the NFL. I want to throw a disclaimer out here as we review the first part of free agency here is we are recording this on March 18th. It's Thursday at about 12.30 p.m. Eastern time. So anything that hasn't happened yet, Kenny Goliday, Juju Smith Schuster, Will Fuller, some of those bigger name wide receivers, some of the bigger name running backs like a Chris Carson, those guys are currently unsigned. It's been relatively quiet for some of them. I know there have been some Golodey and juju rumors, but Tom, we'll talk about them when they sign because we have plenty to get to here on the Fantasy Points podcast. I want to remind everybody that we have the FantasyPoint.com, Early Bird Special for 20% off up at FantasyPoints.com.

That will last through the NFL draft. After the NFL. NFL draft, full price the rest of the way. So if you want to subscribe now, make sure you get that 20% off. And make sure you buy Greg CoSell and our entire staff's draft guide for $25. You will be completely locked in on the NFL draft. And we have a nifty app that we are, Tom, we've been previewing today that's going to display that in sort of like an e-reader kind of way. It's really cool, really slick. Our guy Brock has done an awesome job. Yeah, we were tinking around a little bit on it this morning. You know, hopefully it will be released in time with, you know, the PDF version that we'll

release on the website here in the coming weeks. But it's pretty fun little companion to read the, you know, the different prospects on it. And we'll have, you know, different things on there, like the mock draft. And we even have Debbie rankings and stuff. So that's pretty fun. And, you know, it's been a pretty fun start to the free agency period. didn't really expect to see Bill Belichick and the Patriots as the ones that kind of set the tempo for, you know, the rest of the league here to start free agency. But, you know, maybe the writing has kind of been on the wall here.

It seemed like they kind of kicked the can down the road a little bit last year, got their house in order. And, you know, the draft has not been kind to them recently. So they're loading up on town here to start at the... to start a free agency here. So yeah, let's let's get right into the Patriots. I mean, that's obviously the big story. And when we just were discussing what we were going to do on this podcast, we go position by position. And then we immediately decided, Tom, that you couldn't talk about any one Patriots move without talking about all of them. So let's get into what Bill Belichick is doing here. I'm not, well, when I mention it, it's like I'm making the joke. I'm not going to make the stimulus

package joke, but Bill Belichick got his stimulus check and he's spending it all. You know, relevant humor, Tom. That's what's what we just do here on the podcast. But let's start. Cam Newton, he's back. It is not a deal that in any way precludes the Patriots from drafting a quarterback or potentially pursuing one on the trade market if one becomes available. Certainly not that kind of deal. But as of right now, the only thing we can operate is that Cam Newton is going to be the Patriots starting quarterback. And the offense around him, as we stand right now, is completely rebuilt. No team in the NFL ran fewer plays of 12 personnel than the Patriots.

Given the money they have spent at the tight end position, I think we can easily predict that the Patriots are going to lead the NFL in 12 personnel deployment in 2021, following signing Johnny Smith and Hunter Henry to two of the biggest contracts for any NFL tight end in history. So obviously 12 personnel is going to be a foundation. They have a new possession receiver in Kendrick Bourne. They have a new deep threat in Nelson Aguilar. There have been rumors, Tom, that they are talking to Chris Carson, that they are talking to Leonard Fournett, or at least have checked in there. This offense is going to be unrecognizable. In the event, they draft a rookie quarterback like a Mack Jones,

somebody like that. Or, hell, even if Cam Newton's the starter, it's going to to be an unrecognizable offense. But Tom, 12 personnel. They're looking at these running backs. Damien Harris had an underrated season last year. The Patriots offense is still going to start with the run game. Absolutely. It was an unrecognizable offense last year without Brady.

And, you know, just the roster, you know, it just was slowly deteriorating the last couple of years. They've whiffed on a bunch of picks. And even at the tight end position last year with, Devin Osse-Oce and Dalton Keene in the third round, guys that couldn't even get on the field and make an impact last year. So, you know, I wasn't a surprise that they went after one of these tight ends. Belichick has been very high on Jonu Smith talking about him. And even Hunter Henry, he was talking about last December about how, you know, he watched him in high school and he's kept track of them, you know, the last decade or so here.

So it wasn't surprising that he went after one of them. But when we saw the Hunter Henry signing the day after John Hsu Smith got signed, it was a definite sign of where this offense is going in the future. A lot of two tight end sets. And even I thought it was kind of interesting that they signed Cam Newton before a free agency started. It was a little bit of a head scratcher at the time. But I think it's pretty clear that they wanted to have a quarterback in place before they went and talk to all these tight ends and receivers and, you know,

recruited these guys. I mean, say what you will about Cam Newton's play last year, but, you know, he still looked at around the league as one of the best leaders, you know, in terms of quarterbacks in the league. So got him in place. We'll see if he actually starts all 16 games. You know, I think that they're going to bring in some competition, either through the veteran market, but more likely.

through the draft here. You know, they're picking, you know, I think 15th overall. Mack Jones has been long rumored to be of interest there. We'll see if he's still around. He should be. Maybe they even make a play to move up and get one of the top four quarterbacks. So, you know, for fantasy purposes, this is going to be a tough group to get very excited about, though. You know, Jonu Smith and Hunter Henry are probably going to be canceling each other out, basically.

Nelson Aguilar, I thought that was probably one of the worst signings of free agency. I didn't understand the terms on that one. And now of a sudden, they have a pretty loaded receiving corps. They're going to be cannibalizing each other next season. So it's tough to really get excited about any of these guys for fantasy, even though they did bring in a lot of new bodies here. Tom, let me start by saying Johnny Smith and Hunter Henry. Now, the thing about Johnny Smith, and this was going to be part of my analysis until they signed Hunter Henry, everybody on Twitter is like, oh, my God, they gave him this contract for a guy who's never had 500 yards receiving in a season. I understand that. Also, Johnu Smith was kept into block on half of the Titans' passing plays last year, Tom.

So this isn't just, oh, he's blocking in the run game. It's not he's blocking on half his snaps. He was kept in to block on half of their passing plays. So, I mean, how is a guy going to go over 500 yards receiving when he's doing that in a run-heavy offense? So I think that's kind of a really myopic way to look at the situation. But when you look at the Johnny Smith signing, and quite frankly, Tom, he, I still prefer him to Hunter Henry for fantasy. Maybe that'll change as things, as I look at ADPs and how things are shaking out here. But I just view Johnny Smith the way Bill Belichick has talked about him. great after the catch. Bill Belichick has said he's the best tight end after the catch in the NFL. I think George Kittle would have something to say about that, but certainly he's up there.

I view, I think he and Josh McDaniels envision Johnny Smith as Aaron Hernandez, the football player. You know, we've seen the Titans actually line him up in the backfield and fucking hand him the football. Like, remember that playoff game a few years ago when Aaron Hernandez was on the Patriots, when he was basically the running back. Like, I think, like, they have that kind of vision with Jono Smith. I don't know how much volume he's going to get, but I certainly feel like they envision him being potentially the biggest part, the key player in this offense, the guy who makes it all work.

Yeah, I'm with you there, Joe. I kind of, I think they'll view him as their move tight end. Hunter Henry more is the in-line Y guy. But, you know, I always. also think they could be a bit interchangeable. You know, they're going to kind of use both of those guys in those rules. So, but, you know, I think your point is pretty, you know, interesting about John New because we saw him get off to a really hot start at the beginning of last season.

Look like he was going to be, you know, had potential to be a top five tight end for fantasy. And then Taylor LeWan gets hurt, you know, I think it was middle October. And he became basically a glorified tackle. You know, they didn't trust, you know, their tackles. You know, we saw Dennis Kelly get cut here just a couple of days ago. So, you know, Anthony Furkser moved into more of the move tight end. And they got him going as a receiver more.

And Johnny Smith became more of an offensive lineman, you know, to put it as it was. So, you know, I think he has some untapped potential here. Hunter Henry, I'm with you. I think he'll probably play more of the in-line role. But, you know, we saw, you know, obviously saw, you know, for doing the Rob Grunkowski and Aaron Hernandez comparisons there. You know, Gronk became, you know, the go-to guy in that offense, in that offense, in the red zone. And, you know, we've seen Hunter Henry be able to do that in the past. So, you know, but this is going to be very difficult, you know, because Cam, I mean, through eight touchdown passes all of last season.

and this is still going to be a run-heavy offense. You know, this isn't Tom Brady running the offense, you know, with Gronkin Hernandez. So, you know, it's tough to get too excited about them. They're going to be vulturing each other. I'm with you, though. I would lean towards Jonu as the guy that I would like to have on more of my teams, you know, when compared to Henry. And now let's look at Cam Newton, Tom, when it comes to fantasy purposes. Cam was terrible last year.

And if anybody, look, I understand the situation was bad, but he was also bad. Eight touchdown passes, 10 interceptions, but he had 12 rushing touchdowns. In eight of his 15 starts, he finished as a top 12 fantasy quarterback. That's the same number of top 12 finishes as Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannahill. So he was still good for fantasy despite having an awful season. Tom, in the event, they don't add somebody until like the second or third round of the draft. Cam Newton's probably going to be a value for fantasy, but I've got to be honest. I'm expecting that first round pick in some way, shape, or form to be involved in a deal

for a quarterback, whether it's a trade, a trade up. I still cannot shake the feeling that the Patriots are going to be involved in that high-end quarterback market in the draft. Yeah, I would be shocked if Jared Stiddem as the second quarterback on this roster heading into the season. And the contract kind of tells us that. You know, they gave us the big number. 14 million has been out there.

But this is really a $5 million deal, you know, incentives. If he, you know, gets, you know, a bunch of starts. And that's when it can get jacked up to $14 million. And, I mean, that's a great way for the Patriots to structure it. If, you know, Cam plays well at the beginning of the season, he played well a bit at the beginning of 2020. And if he can keep it going, he'll continue to start and rack up the money. And it's good for both sides.

but I think that they'll have some sort of backup option. So it makes him tricky for fantasy drafts right now. You know, only a guy I would spend, you know, late QB2, QB3 if I'm doing best balls right now. Just because, you know, I'm not totally certain he's going to be a guy that's going to start 10-plus games. I don't think it's guaranteed until we see what they do in the draft. And by the way, John Hansen had a Patriots beatwriter on the show with him this week. And he said when it comes to Cam and Aguilar, he's like, well, the Patriots now have a quarterback who can't throw, throwing the ball to a wide receiver who can't catch.

Not exactly a recipe for success. Now, Aguilar had a good season. Nobody's going to deny that. Tommy still dropped nine out of his 81 markets last year. Yeah, that was, I think that might have been the worst rate in the league. So, I mean, he's still having those issues. You know, but Derek Carr wasn't exactly known as like this great downfield thrower. you know, prior to last year.

And those two really clicked. You know, an Aguilar, you know, first-hand Joe as an Eagles fan. You know, he was a first-round pick, clearly very talented. Yeah, so, you know, maybe he found maybe more of his niche. He was kind of, you know, pigeonholed as a slot receiver to start his career. He was working more on the outside, working the downfield part of the field a little bit more last year with the Raiders. So I would think that's how the Patriots are going to kind of view them. They already brought in Kendrick Boren.

They still have Julian Edelman on this roster. Jacoby Myers. I mean, all three of those guys are, you know, intermediate to short levels of the field. Not really field stretchers. They don't have that guy on their roster right now with the mere bird gone. So I really struggle with these receivers, though. I'll probably be passing on all of them for fantasy. You know, I can't trust Nelson Hagelar with Cam Newton.

Cam wasn't even a willing downfield thrower last year. I looked it up. He only attempted 28 passes, you know, of 20 plus yards. Dak Prescott threw 29 in four and a half games, basically. So, you know, Cam wasn't a good thrower last year, and he wasn't throwing deep to begin with. So we'll see if that changes with a better downfield threat with Aguilar, but I'm very skeptical, and I'll probably be staying away from these receivers.

Let's go to a team that I think everybody likes what they've been doing this offseason. It's the team, Washington. Tom, Ryan Fitzpatrick has a starting job. The team also goes out and gets Curtis Samuel, who's reunited with Ron Rivera and Scott Turner, the offensive coordinator. Washington's going for it. This is a team that won the crappiest division in the history of the National Football League, but still won the division. I'm interested to see what happens here with Washington now that you think they're going to try to be a little bit better offensively and have that defense carry them. But Ryan Fitzpatrick is ostensibly going to be the starter.

It's not a big deal. One-year deal. It's 10 million guaranteed. He's going to enter the camp as the starter. But they've also resigned Taylor Heineke, who did a nice job in that playoff game running around and making some plays. But Tom, the one thing you expect from this offense is it's just going to. and to be significantly more aggressive with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center than it was with Alex Smith.

I'm very excited. I gave out two futures bets for the Super Bowl back in February, and it was Patriots and the football team here. So it's been a good start to free agency for those two bets. And the Washington moves, they have been three of my favorite moves, them getting Ryan Fitzpatrick to be the starter, you know, basically, you know, the same kind of money as Andy Dalton in Chicago. And I'd much rather have Fitzpatrick running my team at this point.

And then they get Curtis Samuel and they go out and get William Jackson at cornerback. So three of three great moves, they didn't really overpay for any of them. But, you know, I'm feeling pretty excited about the direction of this offense in Washington. Not only just because they get Ryan Fitzpatrick, who's, you know, anytime he gets the chance to play, he brings fantasy good. with them. But, you know, now this receiving core is getting filled out with Curtis Samuel in the slot. Antonio, Antonio Gibson, you know, I expect his rule to expand this year. Terry McLaren finally

has a quarterback that will, you know, force feed him the ball. And, you know, Logan Thomas was a guy that really emerged in the second half of the season. So I'm feeling really good about the direction of this, this football team's offense right now. And no, I'm not breaking any news here, Tom, but 7.4A dot on Ryan Fitzpatrick throws last year. That's average depth of target, meaning it's how far down the field he averaged on his throws. 4.8 for Alex Smith.

It was the lowest among quarterbacks with 50 or more pass attempts. He's a fantasy-friendly quarterback. He threw into tight windows more frequently than any quarterback in NFL per next gen stats. That's great news for Terry McClaren. Logan Thomas, I think, is kind of a lateral move for him. For somebody like J.D. McKissick, it's not good. McKissick was like a fantasy cheat code last year because you knew Alex Smith was just going to check it down to him 15 times a game. Not going to happen as much with Ryan Fitzpatrick. And Tom, with Curtis Samuel, the one thing I want to point out here, first and foremost, I think it's a great signing. But keep in mind, in Ron Rivera's last

season in Carolina. Curtis Samuel averaged like 14 and a half a dot. In 2020, when he had a really good season with Joe Brady had offensive coordinator under Matt Rule, 7.1A dot, less than half. And frankly, Tom, I think Curtis Samuel is better served as the latter than the former. I know with better quarterback play, he would have been better in 2019. He had the most unconverted air yards in the entire NFL with Alan throwing him the football. It was not good at all.

But he had that kind of a running back wide receiver hybrid role at Ohio State. And, you know, I think he's been kind of underutilizing that department until last year with Carolina. I would think Washington would be foolish to cast him as just a deep threat the way Rivera and Scott Turner did in his final, in their final year in Carolina, you would have to think they have better plans for him than just running him straight down the field. Yeah, that is the one concern, you know, with this move. But, you know, it was, it was Norv Turner that, you know, was really calling the plays there in 18 and 19. Scott was on the staff, though. You know, you'd think he'd have his dad's ear. But, you know, I believe, you know, Norve got fired, you know, or he resigned or whatever,

you know, for the last four or five games. And Scott Turner took over. towards the end of the season, you know, in that final year in Carolina. And they started using him more in that type of rule, you know, just using him around the line of scrimmage, getting the ball, letting him create. That's where he's best. And then we saw Joe Brady really take it to the next level. You know, he led all receivers in rushing yards last year. You know, I could see them using, you know, Curtis Samuel and Antonio Gibson as kind of

interchangeable pieces, you know, get Gibson out into the slide. at times and put Curtis Samuel in the backfield. I think Scott Turner could have some fun with that. So I'm feeling optimistic about, you know, Samuel heading back to the, to these Panthers guys here. But, you know, I guess that would be the one slight concern that they were the guys that misused him his first three years in Carolina. But, you know, I think the script is out on how to use Curtis Samuel.

He's been successful last year and back in Ohio State when he's been kind of in this slot slash running back role. And I think they'll continue to do it here going forward. One more quarterback move we must mention, Tom, is Andy Dalton going to the Chicago Bears? And the reports are out there that, and it was Dan Patrick who reported the Bears essentially offered like three first round picks, two third round picks,

and a starter or two for Andy Dalton to go, excuse me, for Russell Wilson to go to Chicago. The Seahawks are not budging. so Chicago had to go to plan B, maybe plan C, maybe plan D in Andy Dalton. One year deal, 10 million, up to 3 million extra in incentives. It's essentially the same contract, Ryan Fitzpatrick signed with the Washington football team. This is a, it's not a like franchise quarterback salary, but it said, hey, we kind of expect you're going to start for us salary. But I will say this, Tom, we have not heard the end of the Russell Wilson saga.

Adam Schaefter, I believe, was on television today, and he said this is something to watch right up until the draft. This contract does not preclude Chicago from making that move. If Seattle's like, this is untenable, we must make a move. But for right now, Andy Dalton is the Chicago Bears starting quarterback, and I got to admit, it feels like a lateral move from Mitchell Trubisky. That is not even that. It just a lateral move from Nick Foles. I mean, I know Bears fans can't be very happy. They're getting their hopes up that Russell Wilson might be coming there.

And, you know, I just, I never saw how that was even possible with, you know, they don't have any capital to give them. You know, nothing to really entice Seattle to do it. You know, I just don't understand this move at all. I mean, is Andy Dalton really a huge step up from Nick Fools, who you're already paying a lot of money to? You know, I'd much rather seen the Bears bring back Mitchell Trabisky at a little bit less money. and run it back with them.

But clearly, Ryan Pace and Matt and Aggie were just completely done with Mitch Trabiski. We saw at the beginning of the year, they started out, you know, 2 and 0, 3 and O, and they pulled him for Nick Fools. And then Nick Foles really struggled. And they fell out of contention. Then Trubisky put a couple games together at the end of the year and they snuck into the playoffs. But I just don't understand this move. and, you know, I guess it might be a little bit better, a little bit of an upgrade over Nick Fools, but, you know, shit, I can't get too excited.

Darnel Mooney was a guy that was kind of on my radar this off season, but, you know, he's more of a downfield threat. Andy Dalton can't really stretch the field with his arm anymore. You know, he's kind of a statue back there in the pocket as well. And this, that was an issue whenever Nick Foll was, was in the lineup last year that, you know, He couldn't evade any kind of pressure. That's why Trubisky had a little bit more success behind that Bears' offensive line. So, you know, this is, I've moved down, Island Robinson, a couple hairs, Darnel Mooney a little bit as well.

So this is just the same old crap in Chicago here. I'm sure their fans feel like they're in purgatory. They are livid right now. And I mean, they did go for it. I think Pace and Nagy know that they're not long for Chicago. This is one year. They got one year left to do something. So I expect they're still going to be ringing the phone off the hook in Seattle.

But Tom, let's look at some interesting numbers. Last year, Dalton was less aggressive on a per pass basis than both Foles and Trabiski. 6.6a dot to compared to 7.5 for both Foles and Trabisky. And per Sports Info Solutions EPA, which is kind of a value metric, how much value did you give your offense? Dalton with a negative 11.6 EPA was less valuable than Trabiski, who was at 24.3, though significantly more valuable than Foles, who was at negative 51.5. The one silver lining I can say here, Andy Dalton, was in this offense when Bill Laser was the offensive coordinator for the Bengals from 2016 to 2018.

Dalton's last year with Laser there, he averaged 8.0a. So maybe he's a better fit for the offense. Obviously, Laser had a huge input here. I mean, this does not move the needle for me at all. If they got Russell Wilson, Alan Robinson would be a locked in second round pick. Darnell Mooney would be like one of the most popular seventh or eighth round picks at wide receiver as a breakout. And right now, I kind of feel like Robinson's going to be drafted in the same spot he was drafted last year. That mid third round, certainly he paid off there.

He's proven to be quarterback proof, but this is not a move that improves the Chicago Bears offense in any meaningful way from it. Yeah, Robinson, you know, I want to love him more. I think he's a top five receiver in the league. But, yeah, he's going to be probably drafted in that third round range again. He's going to get peppered with a lot of targets again. But, you know, this offense just isn't going to put up a lot of points. And he's not going to have as many opportunities to score touchdowns and, you know, make big plays down the field because of his quarterback play.

So that's why he's got to slide down to this third round range. So we want to be more optimistic about these receivers, but the quarterback play keeps prohibiting us from doing that. Tom, one more quarterback to talk about is Tyrod Taylor in Houston. One year deal worth up to 12.5 million with the Texans, that's according to Adam Schaefter, but that up to is doing a lot of heavy lifting because apparently the base is less than half of that. But I think that's even more interesting. Because if this has that much incentive in here, in the event Tyrod Taylor starts,

it means the Texans are probably acknowledging that there is a window on Deshawn Watson and that window is open for him to be traded now. As we are, as we are talking, there is multiple lawsuits out against Deshawn Watson, potential sexual harassment involving a massage parlor. DeShon Watson is denying them all. I am not 100% versed on it. I just want to throw that out there. That that is obviously.

suits and not criminal. They are lawsuits. Obviously in a lawsuit, you try to get money from somebody. Deshawn Watson is denying that. That is a developing story. But even if those suits weren't out there, Tom, we know Deshawn Watson's not happy in Houston. John McLean, who has covered Houston football since the Oilers were in town,

has said he, after saying in January, he didn't think he would get traded. He says yesterday on Twitter, he does think Deshawn Watson's going to get traded. In that case, Tyrod Taylor would probably be at the very least a bridge quarterback for Houston because you would think a high pick and or a quarterback somewhere would be involved in the trade for Deshawn Watson, whether it be the second pick from the Jets, the third pick, and Or Tua Tunga Viloa from the Dolphins. The Eagles are reportedly interested. They have the six pick and they have Jalen Hertz. So there is a lot to unpack with Houston. And frankly, we can't really do it too much right now.

I know, but I will say, I think this was a smart move on their behalf, you know, to get a guy in here that's able to start games. And, you know, they've kind of been kind of, you know, they have to get a quarterback back with a trade with Desaum Watson. And now they kind of don't, you know, if they don't want, you know, say the Jets, a Darnold or a Tua, you know, they don't have to get a quarterback involved. They might, you know, look for other pieces. And, you know, they could say, we'll go into the season with Tyron Taylor, as. our starter. We just won as much draft capital as possible or, you know, maybe young, pieces that they can build around. So, you know, I think a move like this at least says, you know, we don't have to have a quarterback involved in the trade. But, yeah, there's still a lot to be played out.

But I'd say the Taylor move and what John McLean said on Twitter, you know, he's the dean of Texans football. The general, as they call them. So, you know, he's been around covering them for, This will be his 20th year, I think, since they came into the league in 02. So, you know, this is a developing situation. We'll see, I would expect, the draft is kind of the deadline for them. That's when they're going to want to get draft capital and make their moves. And so this is going to play out over the next month. You know, the Texans aren't necessarily in a rush to do something here.

But, you know, this Taylor move at least gives them some flexibility heading into the draft. heading into the season, you know, if they, you know, depending on what they want to get from, you know, a trade and if Deshawn Watson will be involved next year, if they do go forward and don't make a trade. So they have a backup plan at least now. The most versatile man at fantasy points.com is Mr. Ben Kucanis. He's here with a wonderful read from our sponsors. And make sure you check that out. And we'll be back right after, right after Ben. Thank you very much, Ben. Tom, we talked about the implications of the quarterback moves. Now let's go to a team that's spending a lot of money, though I'm not really sure how much of it is fantasy

relevant. That'll be the Jacksonville Jaguars. You got Trent Balke coming in, Urban Meyer coming in. I would think the most fantasy relevant move they've made so far is signing Marvin Jones, who is obviously familiar with Darrell Bevel, who's the offensive coordinator in Jacksonville. in Carlos Hyde, who has a history with both bulky and Meyer. I'm not sure how much that matters. Like, if that's the biggest running back move this off season, I think that's good news for James Robinson. There's a lot of money going around here,

but how much of it is fantasy relevant? You know, we thought they might be players for Hunter Henry, for John Hsu Smith. The tight end they signed is Manhurtz, who's one of the best blocking tight ends in the NFL, probably to help that offensive line out. So they've spent a lot of money. I'm not sure how much it affects our game right now, though.

Yeah, I have not been impressed with the start of the Jaguars free agency period here at all. You know, we'll see if it gets better as it goes along. But I did like the Marvin Jones move. You know, my problem with it is he's a bit redundant. He's kind of like, you know, a DJ Chark light here. You know, they even have the similar, I wrote it up in the, in my, tracker that they have, you know, basically the same type of body types. You know, they play the same kind of game.

And hell, Joe, you're going to have fun on your serious XM game day whenever you see number 11 Marvin Jones going up for passes or number 17 DJ chart going up for passes. They're going to look exactly the same, you know, trying to catch the ball. So, you know, I do like that, you know, that was one thing we saw with Trevor Lawrence at Clemson. He likes these big, long, rangy type of range. receivers on the outside. T. Higgins really thrived in the rule, you know, back in 2019, you know, these contested catch type of guys. And, you know, I think Marvin Jones has been one of the

most underrated contested catch receivers. DJ Chark has that same kind of ability, I think. So, you know, they're building up these guys on the perimeter. We'll see, I've hated what they've done at tight end. I gave Manhurt's, you know, 4.25 million guaranteed for, you know, a guy that's been essentially a backup blocking tight end. They traded away Josh Oliver, who's a very interesting and intriguing athletic tight end, who just hasn't been able to get on the field the first two years. He's a guy I wouldn't have given up on so quickly. You know, the Tyler Eifert's gone. So, you know, I thought they would be bigger players at tight end, maybe even with Gerald Everett. You know, he landed in Seattle. So, you know, they've kind of missed out on some opportunities.

opportunities at tight end. But, you know, I'm with you, Joe. I'm also feeling a little bit better about James Robinson here. We dodged a bullet, I think. I don't see them probably making another major move at running back in free agency. Now, the next bullet might say something about that. The next bullet is the draft. That's when we'll have to maybe be a little bit worried.

But James Robinson is trending upward here based on the Carlos Hyden move. He's not really a threat to take his job, especially as a receiver. He's been mostly early down back the last couple of years in his last stops in Cleveland and Seattle here. So, you know, I'm feeling a little bit better here about James Robinson through the first couple of days of the free agency. One of the biggest moves so far is a guy who's just staying at home. And that's Aaron Jones of the Green Bay Packers. Tom, four years, 48 million. which is about the going rate for a really good running back these days.

Obviously, I wish they got paid more, but that is what it is. But what makes Aaron Jones's resigning in Green Bay much more interesting is Jamal Williams is gone. Now, we'll talk about Jamal Williams. But Jamal Williams, who has a three-down skill set. He's not as dynamic as Jones, but he has a three-down skill set, is he was much more likely, in my opinion, Tom, to take snaps from Aaron Jones on third downs, on. passing downs. And that's really important because as research from our guy Scott Barrett has shown years ago, a target is worth more than two and a half times what a carry is worth to a running

back in PPR fantasy football. So Aaron Jones, his carries in 2019 fell from 14.8 per game to 14.4 per game in 2020. But his receptions per game increased from 3.1 to 3.4. Now he's going to be splitting this backfield with AJ Dillon, who isn't as good. a receiver as Jones, isn't as good a receiver as Williams. I mean, I don't care if Aaron Jones's carries continue to fall to even Tom, maybe that 12 to 13 per game range. If his targets go up, I mean, this is a locked in first round pick for me. I don't care if he's not going to get 250 carries. He can get 200 carries and do more than enough to be really good for fantasy. This is where we wanted to see Aaron Jones land. And with Jamal Williams out of the door, this is going to be mean both those guys.

Jones and Dylan. Jones as a first rounder, Dylan as a mid-rounder, could have fantasy value independent of each other. Yeah, this is why I had Jones kind of pegged in like the middle to late first round heading into free agency, just because I thought Green Bay, even if they moved on from Williams and they kept Jones around, I thought that was going to be beneficial for him. And, you know, if he went somewhere in free agency, I thought he would be viewed as a three-down guy and really be given the keys to the offense. So this, this. is a good development for him. You know, he's been right around that 50 catch mark at receiver here,

as a receiver here, the last two seasons. Maybe that can, you know, Jamal Williams was basically a 30 catch guy here, you know, the last couple of years in Green Bay. So if he could sneak up to 60 to 70 catches, you know, this season, you know, that would be, you know, right around that four to five catch mark per game. That would be really intriguing, you know,

Even if the carry has dropped down to the 200 mark, you know, Alvin Kamara has been great in that type of role. You know, I remember Greg and, you know, John Hansen, that's been kind of a comparison last year or so for them. Is Aaron Jones to Alvin Kamara? And you're going to have to pay, you know, a pretty premium price to get Alvin Kamara this year. He'll be a top five draft pick. I mean, the more I'm thinking about it, like, I think Alvin Kamara is the better overall running back, better athlete. But, you know, Aaron Jones is going to be playing in the better offense with Aaron Rogers. You know, we're sure that the Saints are going to be the same type of offense without Drew Grease.

Now they're moving to James Winston and Jason Hill. So, you know, it's going to be, I'll probably still have Kamar ahead of Aaron Jones for the time being. but, you know, I wouldn't be surprised by the middle of summer if I flip because the situation is just that much better for Aaron Jones. But, you know, we'll see how it kind of develops here during the draft during the rest of free agency. Hopefully the Packers kind of, you know, they decide to roll with A.J. Dylan and Aaron Jones as their two guys and don't really bring in the third back to muddle this situation at all. And I don't think they should. You know, they used a second round pick on Dylan last year. They just gave Aaron Jones $48 million, you know, $12 million a year to be their back.

So they shouldn't spend any more at running back. But, you know, I feel pretty good about Aaron Jones in that mid to late first round area. We'll see how he, you know, if he gets a little bit higher than that as the summer goes along here. But, you know, Jamal Williams, though, the move there to Detroit, I'm not feeling nearly as good about D'Auntrey Swift right now. It's awful. And this is somebody in Jamal Williams who I was like, man, in the right spot, he'll be one of my favorite fantasy picks. No thank you in Detroit. I mean, this is totally a landing spot type of move where I'm out on Jamal Williams and it really hurts.

DeAndre, this is going to be a really bad football team, Tom. I think by design, this is a multi-year process. And Jamal Williams obviously took the money. I don't blame him for that at all. but he's the type of player who unfortunately for DeAndre Swift, first and foremost, Jamal Williams, great competitor, great teammate. In the locker room, I think he's going to be great for DeAndre Swift. However, he is also the kind of player I think coaches are going to love.

And I think it is going to be at the expense of DeAndre Swift's touches. And the fact that Jamal Williams has a three-down skill set really hurts. Because you think, well, at least. DeAndre Swift will do it in the passing game. Well, Jamal Williams can do those things too. And if Swift has problems with drops and fumbles and, you know, you got old school mentality kind of coaches there and Dan Campbell and Anthony Lynn. I mean, Tom, D'Andre Swift is still going to be going in the second round just based on his pure talent. And I don't deny that that that should be the case. It's just, man, what a buzzkill this signing was.

I was ready to like say, hell, if Jamal Williams goes to, even the judge. Jets. Like even somebody like them who are almost certainly going to be improved this year, like I might be in on him as a draft pick. We talked about the pie in the sky going to the Steelers. But the Lions, man, you're going to split the backfield on a bad team when they have a dynamic young back. Maybe I'm overthinking this, but they gave up a decent deal here. This one hurt when it came down. Yeah. And you know, Anthony Lynn is this old. old school coached and he'll be calling the plays this year. And I, you know, he's just, he's going to take a quick liking to Jamal Williams.

So he's going to, you know, I'm right there with you. He's going to be way more involved than we want for fantasy. You know, he does, you know, he does nothing exceptional, but he does everything above average. And, you know, he can run, he can be an early down runner. He can pass protection. He's going to be great at that, you know, this is. No career fumbles. No career fumbles.

You know, just four missed games. Doesn't get, you know, doesn't get banged up. You know, he's a capable receiver. You know, he's in, that's going to be a spot where, you know, we want DeAndre Swift to thrive. And, you know, I think he's going to eat into some of those opportunities. So this is, you know, there were red flags. You know, there's plenty of red flags here in Detroit with this offense and just how bad

this team is going to be. And, but, you know, I thought if Swift could at least be a Belkow back. and get 225 carries and catch 50 passes. But now we throw Jamal Williams into the mix. And, you know, my optimism for him to get to those kind of marks has certainly waned here in the last couple days after the Jamal Williams sun. So, you know, we'll see how it shakes out here.

But, you know, this was one of the worst. Just a terrible. I would have much rather seen them continue to roll with Adrian Peterson or carry-on Johnson behind him. You know, because those guys really aren't threats to him in the passing game. That's where I'm the most concerned here. Jamal Williams is going to find snaps in passing situations because of it, you know, just how he plays in pass protection and his ability to catch the ball on the back.

I mean, it's a nightmare. Already prepare for us to be screaming about this come week three. I mean, it's just, oh, what a buzzkill that was because, like, you and I, we had talked about it. He was one of our, like, more underrated free agents, like, in terms of where he could go and and like maybe produce as like a fourth round pick somewhere it just oh what a freaking buzzkill yeah i'm with you jay i think in the right situation if he could have kind of you know been the one a somewhere i think he could have been an under the radar type of fantasy guy for us but

uh this is not a great situation this was always in the realm of possibility though you know him going somewhere to be a one b and uh happened to go to detroit here where you know we have an ascending second year back. He flashed at the end of the last year, but, you know, he still had some under the radar type vibes. You know, he's, it's just a total buzzkill here. Let's go to some wide receiver moves, Tom, some veteran wide receivers.

And they're kind of interconnected here. John Brown goes to the Raiders after the bills cut him. So, oh, load up the Gabriel Davis hype train. Well, not so fast. Emmanuel Sanders goes to Buffalo after the Saints cut him. So we have those two guys. You also have A.J. Green going to Arizona. But let's focus on the Raiders first.

They get John Brown, who, I mean, quite frankly, Tom, he's going to replace Nelson Aguilar in that offense. And just as another guy in case Ruggs and O'Brien Edwards don't take the next step forward. But what are they doing with their offensive line? What are they doing there? I don't know. You know, everybody's asking for their ticket out of town. And John Gruden's just like, oh, go ahead.

Well, we've got guys behind you. But, I mean, so we saw Trent Brown get traded to the Patriots. Then we saw Rodney Hudson get traded to the Cardinals yesterday for a third round pick. And then Gabe Jackson goes to Seattle for a fifth round pick. So three of their biggest starter. And Richie Incognito, they cut them two weeks ago just to resign them yesterday. So I can't figure out what exactly they're doing there. But I do like the John Brown signing.

I think that was a good under the radar. You know, John Brown is always one of these guys that's just a little bit undervalued in the fantasy community. He always kind of exceeds expectations for him every year. And, you know, disappointed last year. He had ankle injuries and, you know, just lower body issues last year, played in only nine games. But he was really good with Baltimore in 2018. was the number one receiver in Buffalo before they got Stefan Diggs in 2019.

I mean, there's a outside chance he could be the number one wide receiver here. I mean, Darren Waller is clearly the top guy in the passing game. But Brog's and, you know, Brian Edwards didn't exactly show us very much last year. We'll see if they can take steps forward. But, you know, Brown has sneaky, just at least a touch of upside. And, you know, he's a guy that, you know, I would expect to be going around a hundred 150 picks into drafts. You know, he's going to be down draft boards.

He'll be at least in the double-digit rounds when he's selected. So I do think there's at least a touch-off side with him if he could become the number one receiver here. Emmanuel Sanders to Buffalo, Buffalo is just route technicians out the ass, Tom. Sanders, Cole Beasley, and obviously Stefan Diggs. They're still in the mix for a tight end. They could be involved in Zach Ertz, yet another route maestro if they get him. I actually kind of like this, Tom, and I'm going to tell you why, because it's going to push Gabriel Davis down draft boards.

And Gabriel Davis, if they didn't sign Emmanuel Sanders, he was going to be the guy who we all think were being sneaky about in March, who he would end up being a seventh round pick by July. I don't know if he's going to get to that point now. And I kind of like it, because I'm still going to be buying Gabriel Davis. I don't know how much Sanders I'm going to have. It's just one of those situations where Buffalo is just going to continue to be one of the most explosive offenses in football. Yeah, I mean, honestly, I probably will be in on Sanders, depending on price. If, you know, he's going after 150 picks into drafts. And, you know, I thought he still has shown, like, you know, the last half of 2019 after, you know,

he kind of got over that Achilles injury. He started to shine there in San Francisco. Last year was kind of a tough spot. But he played really well when Michael Thomas was out of the lineup, kind of as their number one receiver. it was kind of a bad fit for him. I mean, Drew Bree's, I mean, he couldn't really get the ball downfield. Sanders is still sneaky vertical. He can get behind defenses.

And now he's going to a Buffalo offense where, you know, that's not a problem with Josh Allen. He could push the ball down field. And, you know, they're going to run a lot of sets. They ran the second most sets behind the Cardinals in terms of, you know, getting four wide receivers out into the formation. So we're going to be seeing, you know, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Gabe Davis, and Stefan Diggs on the field a lot at the same time. So, you know, Sanders is, you know, he'll be a guy that's drafted real late. I'll probably take some, you know, take some shares of them real late in basketball formats.

Yeah, I could see him being a really strong waiver wire pickup. You know, say if, you know, Cool Beasley or any of these guys go down in front of him, he gets pushed into that rotation. a guy that's still playing at a fairly high level despite his age and the injury a couple of years ago. And let's go now to A.J. Green in Arizona. Tom, I just don't know what to think of this. He was awful last season. And was it the product, the Cincinnati? You know, I wouldn't be surprised if he has a little bit of a resurgence here. But somebody on Twitter posted yesterday, and forgive me because I don't have the name, but the tweet itself stuck out to me.

the last time AJ Green had a thousand-yard season, Amari Cooper was in high school. Wow. That puts it in perspective there. I don't know if that's true because he had one in 2017. But, I mean, still, I think it's a example of the fact that, I mean, quite frankly, over the last three seasons combined, the guy has 1,200 receiving yards. He missed an entire season. Last year he played 16 games, but I mean, that's even more disappointing because he caught 45% of his passes.

He had 523 yards. I just don't know how much of an impact he's going to make here. Let's see. Let's see where he gets drafted. I'm probably out on AJ Green. Yeah, I'll be passing. I mean, do they have to get like old decrepit receivers? You know, they already have Larry Fitzgerald, who hasn't really seen.

said anything yet. He might be back in the mix next year. DeAndre Hopkins is a guy that, you know, as far as good as he is, he's not like this, you know, separation freak. He's not a burner. Yeah, he's not a burner. He beats you up over the, in the short to intermediate area. So, you know, I don't love this signing at all. And that was a major problem with AJ Green. He just just didn't have the explosives to, you know, create separation from quarterbacks last year. So, you know, maybe it gets a little bit better with a year, another year away from his ankle and foot issues from, you know, the previous two years before 2020. But I'm skeptical. We'll see how it plays out. But, yeah, your number there might be right, because I'm looking through my writing right up here. And, you know, he hasn't played 900 or more snaps since 2015. So, you know, it's just availability issues have been in.

issue as well. So this signing, I didn't get it. You know, I liked the Hudson trade. I, you know, I didn't mind the JJ Watt move. But, you know, I thought they could have gotten younger or, you know, gone after one of these guys like Emmanuel Sanders and John Brown for, you know, less money. You know, I'd much rather have those guys compared to AJ Grant. 100%. Yeah. 100%. Now, Tom, we are recording this obviously live. We're talking to each other. It looks like the apocalypse is about to come down here in Greenville, South Carolina. So let's try to get through this before I have to go into my storm shelter here. That's what I get for talking at the top of the show.

Like, well, I'm glad we didn't get a tornado. Well, it looks like a black cloud just flew in front of the sun right now. Marlon Mack is back in Indianapolis. I was going to say Corey Day. We should maybe hit that. Oh, Corey Davis, of course. Sorry. Yeah, I mean, it's a good move for him. You know, it's a spot where he can kind of be a number one wide receiver, but, you know, the quarterback play. I mean, that's the biggest question here. You know, it's a receiving core that he immediately jumps to the top ahead of Denzel Mims and Jameson Crowder. But just a spot where got to wait to see if Darnold's the guy or if they go draft Zach Wilson. Tough to get really excited. You know, I don't, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I expect the Jets offense to really struggle again this year.

So a good move where I think he can get volume, but I just don't know if this offense is going to be very good. Yeah, let's just, Corey Davis will get more information on when we know who the quarterback's going to be. Could be Deshawn Watson. I mean, there's a chance there. And things change drastically for it. Things change drastically.

You would think they're going to have an upgrade, but, you know, if there's a rookie with the number two pick, there's no guarantee that's an upgrade over Sam Darnold. But it sounds like they're also still kind of active in the receiver market as well. So, you know, Juju Smith, Schuster still out there. And it sounds like, you know, they have some interest in him. So, you know, he's locked into that number one rule right now. But, you know, that could change by the end of the weekend.

Marlon Max back in Indy, Tom. I know people were disappointed with this. But, you know, he's 25 years old, Tom. And he's coming off of torn Achilles. If that weren't the case, there probably would have been a market for him. This one, a lot of people were freaking out. They're like, oh, my God, this is bad news for Jonathan Taylor. I don't see that, quite frankly, Tom.

The way Jonathan Taylor played at the end of last year, you know, he was better than DeAndre Swift. And the Colts are better than the Detroit Lions. This does not have anywhere near the mental effect on me that the Jamal Williams signing in Detroit has. There's no guarantee Marlon Mack is going to be 100%, by the way. We'll see if he comes back from the injury. The signing made sense for him. I'm in a familiar spot. He's good in the locker.

a room. Let's rehab and try to hit the market next year. That signing made sense for Marlon Mack. It does not scare me away from Jonathan Taylor at all. No, yeah. I mean, it's really tough for any player to come back from an Achilles injury, but it seems, you know, it seems to be a little bit more difficult for these running backs. And, you know, I guess on the bright side, it did come in the first game of the season. So, you know, it basically has a full 12 months to rehab for the start of the year. But, you know, I mean, Jonathan Taylor clearly distanced himself, you know, by the end of the year overnight, Naim Hines. And, you know, I just don't see him being anything more than, you know, maybe a complimentary piece. You know, get, you know, five or six carries a game and kind of give him a

breeder. But, you know, I'm not shying away from Taylor. Hopefully, maybe this knocks his ADP down a little bit because Mack does have a name. He does have name value. So, you know, So maybe that scares some people away. But I really don't see it happening. You know, I see Taylor kind of settling in as that probably late first round type of pick, maybe even into the middle of first round. But, you know, I'm not going to be scared off here from Mack unless, you know, we get some really glowing reports on him.

What's training camp and August rolls around here. So it doesn't really change the way I view that backfield right now. Tom, let's talk about Gerald Everett. next week on the podcast because I want to get I want to let the Russell Wilson situation simmer a little bit more but uh Seattle signing Gerald Everett is is a much better signing than them putting the Greg Olson Band-Aid on on the team last year but um we made it uh to your locker Joe what's that get to your locker yeah it's like the at the Wizard of Oz hasn't happened just yet here in Greenville in Greenville so I'm glad we were able to do that that's what I get for talking shit

on the weather at the top of the podcast um I am we are better here, Joe. What is it? It's not much better there. It's looking a little bit better here. It was a little windy there. Sorry for the wind chimes picking up right as we started this podcast. Yeah, it was fun.

I mean, I thought it was fun. I like wind chimes, by the way. My wife brought the wind chime in last night, and she goes, I go, well, you're bringing the wind chime in. She's like, yeah, it's going to be windy. And I'm like, obviously what she met was we were supposed to have high winds. And she didn't want the damn thing to blow away. I love wind chimes when there's no wind, Joe.

They look pretty. Yeah, like they're just there, and then maybe they twinkle a little bit. But Tom, thank you for joining us here on the Fantasy Points podcast, the Windchime podcast. Hey, they have podcasts for everything. So maybe you and I can get started on that a little bit down the line. Follow him on Twitter at Tom Broley. Follow me on Twitter at FG underscore Dolan. Follow the site on Twitter at FantasyPTS.

Go to FantasyPoint.com and sign up for our 20% off Early Bird Special. once the NFL draft is over, that thing is kaput, guys. So you're going to have to be paying full price later this year if you don't subscribe now for 20% off. Thank you for joining us on this edition of the podcast. Tom and I will be back to break down free agency next week. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. And come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.