Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Free Agency Review: Part 2

Episode Date: March 25, 2021

Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan) and Tom Brolley (@TomBrolley) are back to break down the second wave of free agency. The guys start the pod by breaking down the signings of Kenny Golladay, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Will Fuller, and T.Y. Hilton. They then discuss Chris Carson, Mike Davis, and Kenyan Drake (35:00) before ending the pod talking about Jared Cook, Gerald Everett, and Dan Arnold (52:00). Get 20% OFF Manscaped PLUS Free Shipping when you use promo code FP2021 at MANSCAPED.COM! --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast, brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Good afternoon, everybody, and welcome to the Fantasy Points podcast here, as we're going to recap the second part of free agency, both most everybody who is going to have a significant fantasy impact, I think, potentially with the exception of a Leonard Fournet has been signed. There's certainly going to be some things that come out around the draft time. Maybe there'll be some trades. But I think we're pretty confident in saying here,

Tom Brawley, that we are wrapping up 95% of what's going to be impactful from free agency for fantasy here. We did a podcast last week talking about some of the early quarterback and wide receiver and certainly tight end moves that the New England Patriots made. And we're going to get more into the running backs and some of the big wide receivers here on this week's podcast. I want to remind everybody to go to FantasyPoints.com and use, well, go to the subscribe button because you don't need to use a promo code because it's already 20% off. That's our early bird special.

You want to get in on that. Get 20% off your order at the end of the NFL draft. That offer expires. and I don't know why you'd want to subscribe after the NFL draft because our draft guide at FantasyPoints.com featuring a mock draft, Wes Huber's Devy rankings and profiles, and most importantly, over 100 Greg CoSell scouting reports for the 2021 NFL draft. That's available at FantasyPoint.com as well for $25.

So make sure you get in on the ground floor, get your early bird special and 20% off. My name is Joe Dolan. you might have heard that I address Tom Brawley. He's with me as usual here on the Thursday podcast. I know, Tom, we're all waiting around here for the NBA trade deadline, which is in about three hours. And the big drama is if my Sixers are going to bring Kyle Lowry home for a championship run.

I don't know if that's going to happen. Maybe it'll break when we're on this podcast. But Tom, there have been moves in the NFL as well. And some, I don't know if anything's overly surprising. Let's put it this way. This offseason, I don't think anybody made, I don't think there was any move that made me go, whoa, this offseason. And I think that's probably partially and maybe significantly so to do with the crazy salary cap situation in the post-COVID world. Yeah, we'll get into it here in a little bit.

But yeah, we saw some big name wide receivers like Will Fuller and Juju Smith-Schuster kind of settle for one-year deals. We're, you know, we see a lot at the running back position, but, yeah, just not enough money out there. The cap will be slowly rising. We got details of the new TV contract last week, you know, with more money coming in for the NFL. People want to get the live sporting events on their networks. So, you know, it's going to be kind of a one-year blip. We're, you know, we're moving forward here in the country here. We're probably going to have fans in the stands. you know, so the money and the salary cap will be going up in the future. You know, it's not all going to come at once. Next off season, you know, it's going to be spread out over a couple seasons.

But, you know, so a lot of these guys, you know, just kind of push the ball down down the road a little bit here, you know, get the money, you know, get almost like not even a prove-it deal. But, you know, they just settled here. Get what they can. Show what they have to this year. And, you know, there will be a little bit. more money out there next year. So, you know, there are still a few guys. You touched on

4-Net. I got a list of some of the other guys. Al Smith is, Alex Smith is still there, quarterback, you know, probably looking for a backup deal. You know, Golden Tate, Sammy Watkins, Willie Sneed, and Antonio Brown is one interesting guy at receiver who's still out there. Apparently Seattle might have a little bit of interest there. Probably don't want to see that for D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. And, you know, at running back, we got Leonard Fournett, Duke Johnson, Todd Gurley, Matt Breda, and like Jerich McKinnett. So there are still a few names out there, but most of the big ones have been, you know, taken at this point. We're 10 days, basically, into free agency at this point.

Well, let's go with the big names at the wide receiver position, and that's where I want to start on this podcast. And let's go with Kenny Ghaladay, because, Tom, I got to be honest, when I saw what Juju Smith-Schuster signed for, and we'll get to him. When I saw Will Fuller signed for, I was like, you know, Kenny Gallaudet, he might have to settle for that one or two-year deal, take a big, big one-year payday and re-enter the market. Well, the one thing that did surprise me was how much money Kenny Galladay got. I think it was like upwards of 40 million guaranteed from the New York Giants. And look, when I'm analyzing this move for free agency, I don't want to, anybody can tell you the impact on the Giants. I want to talk about the impact on fantasy.

And I have to say, Tom, going from Matthew Stafford to Daniel Jones has to be a downgrade for me. And I don't know if it's going to be significantly so, but it's a downgrade. Matthew Stafford has a longer track record and he's a lot better than Daniel Jones. But the thing about Daniel Jones is, according to next gen stats, he is a fairly aggressive thrower in terms of throwing into tight windows, which is good because Gallaudet is not a traditional separator the way you think of a Stefan Diggs or a Keenan Allen, somebody who's going to win with route quickness. He's somebody who's going to win with his body and his strength. You need a quarterback willing to throw it into tight windows. Daniel Jones is that.

But that being said, you also have Evan Ingram here. You have Sequin Barkley here. You have Darius Slayton. Sterling Shepard's moving back inside into the slot, which is much better for him than him playing outside. There is competition for targets here. And then there is the competition for the heart of the offensive coordinator, Jason Garrett, who even last year, after losing Saquan Barkley for the year when you have Wayne Galman and Alfred Morris heading up your backfield was one of the run heaviest coaches in the NFL in neutral game scripts, even without Saquan Barkley. So when I look at the weapons the Giants have, they're going to be improved defensively.

They signed Adora Jackson. Obviously, they brought Leonard Williams back. I think they're going to draft defense in the Giants have. the NFL draft. I wonder if there is just enough balls to go around here for Kenny Goladay and all these guys to produce at the level that they have produced in the past. Yeah. And, you know, Jason Garrett, you bring up that point. I, you know, I hope he skews a little bit more pass-heavy. Now that, you know, he has that true, you know, number one wide receiver on the outside, you know, show a little bit more trust in Daniel Jones. But we'll see if it plays out that way. But, you know,

You're right. It's a bit of a downgrade going from Stafford to Daniel Jones here. The cast, you know, he's got a little bit more competition here. Of course, he had Marvin Jones and T.J. Hawkins and two, you know, strong players in Detroit. But, you know, there's just a little bit more depth here. You know, they, you know, Jason Garrett has played, you know, kind of deliberate offense. You know, he milks the clock. You know, this isn't like a uptempo type of offenses that he has run. in the past. So, you know, this is, you know, it's a tough situation. And I have him kind of, you know, in that like fourth round range. I know there'll probably be some people that like him a little bit higher. But, you know, I have to view this as a bit of a downgrade. But, you know, the kind of money they gave him, 40 million, as we touched on the market earlier this, earlier in the podcast, you know, they must have some big plans for it. That's the one thing. that does get me a little bit excited for me. They're fully invested in making Kenny Gulladay,

the centerpiece of this passing game with that kind of money. You know, we'll see about having me. I'm a little bit worried about Evan Green, Ingram. We'll maybe we'll touch on that a little bit later with the tight ends. They sang Kyle Rudolph as well. You know, might be taking a few more snaps away, but maybe they'll use Ingram a little bit better, you know, as a move tight end in this offense.

But overall, it's a bit of a downgrade for everybody in this passing game except for Daniel Jones. I feel like we have to be pretty optimistic. You know, it wasn't pretty last year, but, you know, this is kind of setting up, you know, to the Josh Allen comparisons, you know, from last year. They go out and get Stefan Diggs, you know, and Josh Allen kind of takes off in this third year. That is the pie in the sky type of scenario. I don't think anybody's anticipating Daniel Jones to suddenly become a top five quarterback like Josh Allen did. But, you know, that's certainly what the Giants are hoping for with this kind of acquisition here. Yeah, and it's one of those no more excuses type of situation.

And we've seen that angle with Daniel Jones, no more excuses now. And I kind of get it. I don't really recall that being part of the discussion when it came to Josh Allen when they got Stefan Diggs. because I always feel like when you watched Allen, even at his worst in his first two years, Tom, there was always that genocet quo, there was always the tantalizing highs and the competitiveness and obviously the physical ability. Daniel Jones can't sniff Josh Allen in terms of physical ability. So we have to look at it from that angle and be careful. But I do like Daniel Jones for Fantasy Tom as one of those kind of,

mid-round, later-round quarterbacks. Right now, his Daniel Jones's ADP is 147.43 over the last week in Best Ball Tens. That's a 13th round pick. That is exceptionally affordable. He's more, he's actually less expensive than Carson Wentz. I like him more than Carson Wentz for fantasy, especially because of that rushing upside, Tom. He's less expensive than Baker Mayfield. So I think there's more upside there for somebody like a Daniel Jones.

he's going right in the same range as Ben Rothesberger and Derek Carr. Right now, I like him better than those guys. So there is some buy potential on Daniel Jones. And over the last week, looking at Kenny Goliday, 49.57 ADP, Tom, that puts him dead smack at the end of the fourth round, beginning of the fifth round. I think that's the right spot for him. He's going right around T. Higgins. He's going right around Brandon Ayyuk.

He's going after Robert Woods and Adam Thielen to guys who I admit, like more than Kenny Gulladay this year. Yeah, I'll probably be a little higher on Goladay than feeling. And Woods is a tough one. Yeah, I got to, I think that the Rams are probably done making moves at receiver. So I'll probably like Woods a little bit more. But, yeah, I think at the very least, Goladay has a little bit more upside than some of the guys around them. Yeah, I also think he has a lot more downside.

You know, we've seen these guys in their first years and new offenses with new quarterbacks struggle at times. it wasn't really the case last year. You know, Stefan Diggs and DeAndre Hopkins, you know, went right in and, you know, excelled in their new locations. We'll see if Galdi is that level of player where, you know, we don't have to worry about that. But, you know, I do think he does have a little bit more upside just based on, you know, playing with a young quarterback who might take a step or two forward and an offense that I think wants to really feature him.

So, yeah, but that fourth round, price sounds about right right now. Let's get to Juju Smith-Schuster, Tom. And I got to, this is just a product of the world we live in, but also it kind of reflects on Juju as well. Could you imagine, Tom, you're a Steelers fan. And we have a Yinser chat here where I'm kind of the outsider, I guess, but talking Steelers and Pittsburgh sports and stuff like that. And could you have imagined telling that group chat that we're in two years ago, Juju Smith-Schuster's 22 years old, he's coming off a 111 catch, 1,400-yard season. Could you imagine telling you guys in that chat, me coming in there at the end of the 2018

season, that in two years, when he's entering free agency as a 24-year-old wide receiver, Juju Smith-Schuster would have to settle for a one-year contract? No, I don't think anybody would have believed you. And I don't think anybody, if you would have said in January, that Juju Smith-Juster would be coming back to the Steelers, period. and I think most people would have been surprised. But, you know, that's just the way the market kind of shook out. And, you know, really with a lot of the numbers, I mean, he took less money than T.Y. Hilton,

which is, you know, a bit of a surprise. You know, 32, 33-year-old receiver, you know, getting more money on a one-year contract, which was, you know, pretty telling. But, you know, his agent put out there, I don't know if it is completely true, But, you know, he turned down offers from Baltimore and Kansas City as well. So, you know, he opted for the familiarity with Pittsburgh, with Ben Rafflesberger, giving him, you know, one more shot here. So, you know, it's, I would expect Chase Claypool to take on a bigger role next year.

You know, Juju, you know, his A-DOT was, you know, sitting around seven, eight yards last year. just no upside to his, you know, his targets in the middle of the field there. The offense really got stale under Randy Featner. So, you know, it's tough to feel too optimistic about him after what we saw last year. But an optimist would say, you know, Ben's, you know, this might be his last season. Last year he had to, you know, spent all offseason rehabbing that arm, couldn't really build up the strength. He was just trying to get back to, you know, a place where he could just throw the ball. So, you know, he's going to spend the entire offseason probably doing arm, strengthening exercises.

Maybe his arm will be a little bit better here. But he's also one year older here. I think he'll be 38 or 39 next year. So Matt Canada is the other big question. They have to get Juju Smith-Schuster, you know, more in the intermediate to deep part of the field for him to really show a little bit more ceiling. like he did in his first two seasons, you know, playing next to Antonio Brown in that offense. But, you know, the one big positive, all the talk of Pittsburgh is about the running game and how they got to improve that. But, you know, this is still a Big Ben offense.

They're still going to be chucking it close to, you know, 600 times. You know, they've been well over that mark in the last three healthy seasons with Big Ben. Maybe it trends a little bit downward, but, you know, the offense is. still a very pass-heavy offense, which definitely works in Juju's favor. But just have to unlock some of that ceiling. It just hasn't been there the last two seasons. A lot of it wasn't his fault two years ago. They were playing with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges. So last year, it just went sideways. But maybe a little bit of a change of pace at offense with a new offensive coordinator. And maybe if Big Ben's arm is a little healthier, stronger this year with a

full offseason to really work on it. You know, that's, that's what, that's what he's hoping for here with his one-year contract. I think we can, we can talk about the merits of Pittsburgh running it back this year. And I think, Tom, maybe things would be a little bit different, again, in a different off season with more cap space. But Pittsburgh has to probably be looking at this from the perspective of, well, we don't have much cap space. We created some because of Ben Rathesberger restructuring his deal.

But we don't have much caps. space. The cap didn't go up. As a matter of fact, it went down for the first time and forever. And I mean, I think if you, we all know how the season ended, but this is still a team that in November was the last undefeated team left remaining in the NFL. So there is that level for Pittsburgh, but hey, maybe we're not the top Super Bowl contenders, but things could go better for us this year than it did last year. Tom, from a fantasy perspective, I'm looking at the numbers over the last week, 80,000.

Deontay Johnson, 44.1. Middle and fourth round. Chase Claypool, 58.3, end of the fifth round. Juju Smith-Schuster was a second round pick last year. Sixty eight point two-nine. That puts him middle back end of the sixth round. I've got to admit to you, Tom, I'm going to buy the cheapest of those receivers, and right now that's juju. Yeah, I'm kind of with you. I mean, I do want to be on Claypole. I do, you know, He was kind of a part-time player a bit last year. They were kind of afraid to really give him a full workload. You know, he was, you know, kind of sitting around 50 to 60% of the snaps a lot of weeks. So, you know, I do think that he, you know, starts getting that 80 to 90% range.

But you're right. I mean, to, I mean, that's, you know, it is tough. There hasn't been a lot of ceiling there the last two years. But, you know, he's going to probably see, you know, at least 110. plus targets, you know, if he's fully healthy and in the lineup every week. So I think he'll be second behind Deonté Johnson. I think Deontay Johnson, you know, is kind of leading this offense right now. But if Chase Claypole is going to go a full round ahead of him, you know, I'll probably be on Juju Smith-Schuster a little bit in that 6 to 7th round range here this summer.

Somebody going ahead of Juju Smith-Schuster in best balls right now going at pick 63.3. Kind of the end of the fifth round, beginning of the sixth round, is Will Fuller, who signed a one-year deal with the Miami Dolphins, Tom. And I mean, let's just call it like it is. Going from Deshaun Watson, who will pepper you with targets incessantly to Tuatunga by Loa is a downgrade. It is a downgrade. Tua didn't show much as a rookie. Doesn't mean he can't improve, but he didn't show much.

It's a downgrade for me. Fuller still has to serve the one-game suspension. Now, keep in mind, the season's almost certainly going to be a game longer this year. So the impact of a one-game suspension is dampened a little bit because of the new schedule. But, Tom, for me, it makes sense for Miami. Fuller probably wants to prove, hey, look, I can stay healthy. The suspension might have dampened his market. COVID dampened his market.

it makes sense for Fuller. It makes sense for Miami. It doesn't excite me for fantasy, though. No, and he also is going to have a little bit more competition, I think. You know, DeVante Parker's here. You know, he kind of plays the game like DeAndre Hopkins a little bit, you know, kind of that, you know, bully ball on the outside, you know, commands a lot of target targets. And he also has Mike Gassicki in the middle of the field. I wouldn't be surprised if, you know, they make a, you know, You know, they have a ton of picks in the first two days there that they make a play for another receiver in the draft. A back? Yeah, a back as well. But, you know, Fuller's only on a one-year deal.

So they're going to probably be pretty active drafting a receiver, you know, in the first three rounds, I would think. So, and it all comes back to Tua. Didn't really have a lot of success throwing down the field. I think a back, if they draft a back early in the draft, it might actually be kind of a good thing for Will Fuller. maybe it opens up the, you know, more downfield targets and more effective downfield targets for two attack of Iloa. But, you know, it's tough to get really excited here. You know, he was kind of the clear number one in Houston, you know, played many years with Deshaun Watson. And he did get to show off, you know, a more complete route tree. They, you know, he was, you know, he was kind of a deep ball specialist playing next to DeAndre Hopkins. got to run a lot more slants and, you know, worked underneath

and in the intermediate areas of the field a little bit more last year. So, you know, that's a positive, but just a little bit more competition and going from Deshaun Watson to, you know, it's got to be a little bit of a knock on Fuller. But, you know, he did show us that, you know, he's kind of capable of being in that wide receiver one, wide receiver two class if everything is right. But I just don't think everything is right here. He's kind of a mercenary here this year on the one-year deal. So two is just going to have to

make a massive jump. And he might. And he might. And that's certainly possible. He's coming off a, you know, a major hip injury. That was only 18 months ago. You know, it kind of looks for, you know, everything that we've seen here, you know, around free agency, that they're fully. committing to them. They signed Jacoby Brissette to be the backup that kind of, I would think, kind of puts them out of the running for Watson. At least they're, you know, moving forward. Like, this is to us. There's some other things that put them out of the running for Watson right now, Tom. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, that's a story that. Yeah, that market is cold off here. You know, teams are going to be very hesitant here. You know, the story with, you know, Watson and the masseuse is

there. It just keeps getting worse, seemingly every day. So, I would think that market has cooled off some here. But, yeah, too is, you know, it's going to come down to it at the end of the day. But, you know, Tu is a big winner here, I think. You know, he was a guy I wasn't very excited about. But now, you know, having Will Fuller, that opens up more big plays in this offense. You know, now I'm going to consider Tua in that low end QB2, high end QB3 range in my best balls. You know, because, you know, that's honestly what the offense was lacking last year.

And just there was no vertical ability on the field from any of the dolphins' receivers. So, you know, obviously a lot of it was on Tua, but, you know, a lot of it was on the cast as well. So, you know, this kind of feels a lot like the Daniel Jones situation. You know, the cast was poor last year, but now, you know, there's really not a lot of excuses there for Tua in terms of who he's throwing the ball to. And I completely agree with you. And this is one thing that I always have to wrestle myself. And Tom, I think we all have to wrestle ourselves over this. I did not think Tua looked really good at all last year.

And, you know, I couldn't imagine telling 2019 me that based on what I would see in the NFL, that I would be more optimistic on Jalen Hertz as an NFL quarterback than Tua than Tua Tua by Lowa. Like, I can't even explain that to myself after watching what happened in that national championship game against Georgia. But things that, things have changed. But Tom, getting over my own personal biases and realizing, there was a lot working against Tua last year.

I don't like the fact that Brian Flores benched him multiple times in game in season. I don't like that. I don't like what that says, but I also have to acknowledge that if they don't make a significant move here for a Deshawn Watson, something that looks like it's becoming less and less likely by the day for multiple reasons, I have to I have to acknowledge that Tua could be a major candidate to take a big leap forward. And as you said, they still have all those draft picks. We're going to put a better supporting cast around. Yeah, he's probably right in that mix.

You know, he's not with the Daniel Jones, you know, crew there in the middle of the, you know, the QB2s there. But, you know, he's certainly viable, you know, around those Derek cars. He's probably going to be right around those rookie quarterbacks as well. So, you know, certainly reason to be a little bit more optimistic. And you're right. You know, we thought very highly of this guy, you know, just a couple of years ago. I don't want to, you know, just sell him short here like his career is over after a couple, you know, a handful of starts in the last two to three months of the season. You know, it didn't look great, but, you know, he gets a full off season here.

I was talking about Ben Rothelsberger a little bit with a little bit of potential to bounce back with a full off season to really focus on his, you know, not just his injury. And, you know, two is going to be in the same boat. And he's going to get a full off season here to work, well, hopefully a full. full off season. We're moving towards that, you know, a little bit more here. Hopefully we get some OTAs and some, you know, off-season workouts in the summer. But, you know, there's reason to believe that, you know, he's going to look a lot better just on the field. So, you know, I would definitely, there's, there's starting to be a buy sign to flash on him just because I think there is the perception out there that, you know, he kind of stinks. And I, you know, we saw just a couple

of years ago. He doesn't stink. So, you know, I'm going to be willing to give him more of a chance, especially if they draft another receiver early in the draft. Let's go to Tywy Hilton, Tom, who we always talk about hometown discounts. It feels like he got a hometown upcount. He got like, what, $10 million from the Colts? This was a guy who was a ghost for the first three months of the season last year. Came alive late, Tom. He's back with the Colts who, I mean, are essentially running it back as it stands right now, but minus Philip Rivers and Anthony Costanzo plus Carson Wence, and I would have to imagine they're going to have a new left tackle, whether it be Quentin Nelson or somebody else, not Sam Nevy, who they just signed.

For Carson Wents' sake, I hope he's not the left tackle. He's a swing tackle. Yeah. But anyway, T.Y Hilton's back. Tom, over the last week for Best Ball 10s, 143.29, end of the 12th round. I can't imagine he's going to go. Let's let's, let's put it this way. I can't imagine T.Y. Hilton is going to consistently sneak into the single-digit rounds, and that's where I'm okay buying. I think there are significant questions on Went still. I think that's more than fair. I think you can make an easy argument that the Colts have downgraded that quarterback, but T.Y. Hilton is also now going like six rounds later than he did last year. And I faded him last year, but at the price he's at right now,

if the Colts don't make a significant move in the draft for another weapon, I can see myself dabbling in some Ty White Holt. Yeah, I think it's a buy sign with him as well for me, just because of the price. I mean, you're right. It was, you know, he was fifth, six, you know, right around 60 picks in, you know, last year. And I hated that price, especially, you know, with the weapons they brought in.

So, you know, after watching a year, you know, I'm still pretty optimistic on Michael Pittman, but, you know, I think he should be drafted before T.Y. Hilton and fantasy drafts. But, you know, he had a couple good games, but he never really, you know, look like a guy that was definitely headed toward being a number one wide receiver. Maybe that happens this year. But I still think there's a path here for Hilton to be the lead receiver. And they, you know, just based on the money there, they clear. think he still is playing at a very high level. You know, 10 million, you know, for a year, eight million in guaranteed money. You know, that's better numbers than Will Fuller got from, you know,

I think Fuller got 10 million as well. But the guaranteed money is in Hilton's favor there. So, you know, the money says they think he can still play. The big question is, you know, can he get on the same page quickly with Wence? You know, I think Wentz should like a guy like Hilton. has always been, has always excelled at separating from defenders. And we know Carson Wentz can be scattershot at times. Not always the most accurate quarterback, but get playing with a guy like Hilton, he gives you a lot of room to make mistakes. So, you know, if he's going to be, I don't see the 143 number lasting.

You know, his current. No, I'll go on. Yeah, I would think he probably settles in that, you know, probably 120 range. 1-10 range somewhere in there. And I think he's going to be a guy that, you know, I'm not going to go all in it on, you know, he's a 32, 33-year-old receiver here. But, you know, at that kind of price for a guy that could potentially still be the number one receiver, you know, I'm going to take some shots on him.

Yeah, so Tom, any more guys you're interested in, AJ Green, who was arguably the worst receiver in football last year. any interest there. I mean, he's basically free for fantasy, by the way. Like, I mean, like, his ADP is nearing 200, so maybe as a last guy I can see it. Deshawn Jackson, once again, Tom, I'm going to have way too much Deshawn Jackson for bestball, because God, if he's healthy for four games, he and Stafford are going to be fun together. Here's a signing that I actually think is kind of interesting and might sneak under the radar.

Josh Reynolds to the Titans who lost Corey Davis and Johnny Smith this offseason. I like it a lot. He feels like a pretty comparable, you know, a good replacement there for the Cory Davis rule. You know, they have nothing at receiver right now. I would expect them to be pretty active at the top of the draft here. But, you know, they've been busy kind of, you know, massaging their defense here after last year. So they couldn't really spend up at receiver. So Reynolds is definitely a guy, you know, $200.

picks into a draft, you know, literally your last guy to, you know, in a best ball draft, the last, you know, your wide receiver seven, wide receiver eight, I would definitely be interested there. So, you know, he can run. He can, he can make plays in the red zone. You know, those are two areas where a lot of fantasy production comes. So, you know, a sneaky under the radar, potential fantasy guy, just heading to a great spot to potentially get 100. You know, I don't know if he's going to get 100, but I can easily see him getting 80 plus targets in that offense next year. Well, Tom, we've had a lot of talk on this podcast about there being enough balls to go around for somebody, especially for Kenny Goladay.

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Manscape Boxer briefs that'll keep your junk feeling fresh all day and a travel shed bag to store all your grooming goodies. Trim that junk of yours. Get 20% off plus free ship. with the code FP2021 at Manscape.com, your balls will thank you. That's get 20% off and free shipping with the code FP2021 at Manscape.com. 20% off at Manscape.com. Free shipping with the code FP2021. Unlock your confidence and always use the right tools for the job with Manscape. Tom, let's get to the running back position here. And let's talk about some of the moves that have been made. And let's start with an easy one because I'm going to, we're going to have a tough time unlocking the Kenyan Drake trade. Let's start with an easy one.

Chris Carson, he's going back to Seattle. Pete Carroll wants to run the ball. That's been the focus of the entire offseason. They do not want Russ to cook. Russ cooked at the beginning of last year and then things went awry. He started turning the ball over quite a bit. Chris Carson back to Seattle, Tom. This is the move that always made sense.

It's good for fantasy. I mean, just lock him into that third round as always. Yeah, he's going to be right in that third, fourth round again. You know, I always seem to underestimate him a little bit. I always do. I do too. But, you know, at this point, he's, you know, he gets it done every year. And even last year, he, you know, showed a little bit more as a receiver,

an area where the field where, you know, he really wasn't used that much. So, you know, showed a little bit more upside there. But you're right. They want to go back to this, you know, smash metal type offense. You know, we've heard Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll kind of bickering back and forth through the media here, you know, the last couple of months. So, you know, they want to use him heavily here. The big question for me is why I might be a little bit lower on them than some is, you know, Rashad Penny is going to be back in the mix here. You know, he had that devastating ACL injury toward the end of 2019 season.

came back late in December last year. You know, we heard that he, you know, was practicing, you know, he looked great in practice, and he had a little bit of a setback there and, you know, couldn't quite, you know, give them what they needed towards the, in the last final weeks of the season there. So, but I would expect him to take on a little bit bigger rule here. You know, he's certainly explosive. They used a first round pick on him just a few years ago. So that's the one hang up on Carson, but maybe that will, you know, cause them to be a little bit of a discount as well.

And by the way, Rashad Penny right now, ADP, 142.86 over the last week. I mean, so even if there was uncertainty about Carson's status, Penny was still like a 12th round pick. So you can get him for free and best ball. Carson right now. And I'm looking at this over the last week. He's actually going at pick 54, which is a fifth round pick. that's going to go up. He's going to be in that third, fourth round range. And once again, he's like one of those guys every year where his ADP starts out, you know,

in that 45 to 55. And it always just slowly trickles up, you know, until we're at the end of August. And, you know, he's like, you know, pick 35 overall. So this seems to happen every year with Carson. I would expect that to definitely go up by a round here in the next month or two. Let's go now to one more move. That makes a lot of sense to me, Tom. Mike Davis to the Atlanta Falcons. Right now, he looks like they're starting running back. I think they really like Mike Davis as a zone runner.

That's one of the reasons I don't think they were in on Kenyon Drake, by the way, who's a much better gap scheme runner. Mike Davis goes to the Atlanta Falcons. His ADP hasn't really moved recently. In the last week, he's at 189. that signing was recent. It's going to rise above that. I'm not sure how much it's going to rise,

but this gives Atlanta a little bit of an insurance if maybe that right back isn't on the board for them in like the second or third round of the NFL draft. They're not going to draft. They have a top five pick. They're not going to draft a running back in the first round of the NFL draft. But Mike Davis gives Arthur Smith

that little bit of insurance, being able to run that outside zone play action-based offense, which he kind of ran with Carolina last year. He uses some power. He's not Derek Henry, but he at least gives them some stability in that backfield. And as it stands right now, probably is a decent value pick as like an RB3 or 4 for fantasy. Yeah, very interesting signing. I mean, the money, a $5 million deal with $3.5.5 million guaranteed in the first year.

So, you know, it's kind of telling you that, you know, they like them. Yeah, he's probably better off as a high-end, like, second running back on a team. But, you know, this gives them the flexibility. They're going to be picking forth overall. They're not going to take a running back there. But I think 35th overall in that beginning of the second round, they're going to be kind of the team. If you want to draft a running back, you're going to have to get in front of.

We've got a couple good ones here with Najee Harris, Travis Entienne and Giovante Williams as well. So they're going to be in the mix for one of those guys in the second round. We'll see if anybody, you know, if all three go before them, you know, if that would happen, Mike Davis could be primed for, you know, a big role here. He's going to be a very interesting draft pick here in best balls, you know, for the next month. You know, I kind of hedged a little bit. I have them like in that 120 range overall, you know. But if you get them there and they don't do anything in the draft,

suddenly he's like a top 50, top 60 type of back here. So, and if they do take one of those top end backs, you know, he's going to slide. He'll probably be in that 140 to 150 range. But, you know, I still think he has some value in case the rookie slips up in front of him. But a pretty interesting move. I think a pretty savvy move by the Falcons. You know, they didn't spend up for one of the big guys, you know, like Kenyon Drake, like you said, Chris Carson was out there, winner four net is still out there.

They kind of went for this middle tier kind of back. And, you know, good second option if they don't get the back they want in the draft. Let's go to Kenyon Drake, who now goes to Vegas. I still want to call him Oakland, but he goes to Vegas to the Raiders where he's going to team with Josh Jacobs in that backfield. And Tom, what I think Gruden wants to do is, and by the way, Gruden is going to do, what Gruden wants to do. That is obvious. I think Gruden still misses Charlie Garner. Like, Gruden still is looking for that, that amazing receiver and good runner, and I think he sees that in Kenyon Drake. But here is the problem. Based on what Josh Jacobs did in college,

Josh Jacobs looked like he could be a Charlie Garner kind of guy. Josh Jacobs has one career target on third down, which is one of the most mind-blowing stats. I have. ever heard, that is not going to go up by a whole lot this year with Kenyon Drake landing with the Raiders. It is very obvious, based on the signing, a multi-year deal, by the way, with quite a bit of money guaranteed, that John Gruden views Kenyon Drake as a multidimensional back who could be deployed in multiple different positions. Kenyon Drake said in his news conference with Raider reporters that he envisions being used at both running back and wide receiver. Here's the problem. What the hell happened to Kenyon Drake in Arizona last year?

Arizona, Tom, determined that Chase Edmonds was the better receiver than Kenyon Drake. It is a bizarre signing. That being said, depending on where Kenyon Drake's ADP shakes out, I guarantee I'm going to be more interested in drafting him than I'm going to be in drafting Josh Jacobs this year. Yeah, I mean, I don't know what else the Raiders have to do to tell us that, you know, that Gruden does not try. trust Josh Jacobs as a receiver here. You know, they go out and sign Theo Riddick in the middle of last year.

You know, they already have Jalen Rashard on the roster. You know, Jacobs is not going to be involved in the passing game this year. So, you know, he'll probably be in that third round range again. Well, he was a second round pick last year. He'll be in that third to fourth round range a lot this year. Probably a guy I will, you know, I never say never, but I probably won't have, I'll have next to nothing. of him. Just everything we've been told over the last two years is, you know, based on their

signings and based on how they've used him, that they just don't think he can do it as a receiver. So I can't believe it. Yeah, I know. He looked like he had a complete skill set coming out of what he did in college. Yeah. And but yeah, I'm right there with you. I'll be with, you know, we'll see where Drake settles in. I figure he'll probably be in that seventh to eighth round range. And he'll be a guy. I'll be, you know, probably targeting. pretty heavily, you know, at the very least, if he gets that passing game rule, maybe he has some value there.

They, you know, they did lose Nelson Aguilar. They really haven't done anything to upgrade their receivers yet. They did get John Brown. Yeah, John, you know, maybe it's a lateral move, I guess, going from Aguilar to John. That's what I think, yeah. It's a replacement. It's a, yeah, it's a, they put,

the square peg into the square hole with John Brown. That's what, let's put it that way. Exactly. So, yeah, Drake will be a guy, you know, and maybe there's that. that chance that, you know, Chuck Jacobs hasn't been a guy that stayed healthy a whole lot so far. You know, he's had the shoulder issues. So, you know, there's been some availability issues with Jacobs. So I think that makes Drake a little bit more intriguing as well.

So just a head scratching signing, though. And we haven't even talked about the Raiders, what they're doing with their offensive line. They just basically dismantled the whole thing. Yeah, they dismantled it. traded away Gabe Jackson to Seattle, Rodney Hudson to the Cardinals, Trent Brown to New England. So, and the one guy they brought back is,

you know, caught Richie Incognito a week or two before the free agency started and they brought him back. So just bizarre, just bizarre moves by Mike Mayock and Gruden here in Las Vegas. This is the one franchise that just,

you know, we'll get. Hey, they're always never boring. They're never boring. But, yeah, once win, you know, win totals and stuff come out, you know, I'm not going to be the only one. But they're going to be a pretty hard fade for me at this point. You know, Derek Carr, you know, had basically a career year last year. You know, it could be tough for him to replicate that.

So, yeah, just negative vibes all around that Raiders offense right now. Tom, so, yeah, well, let's look right now. And this is very early ADP. Josh Jacobs is going basically 23.86 end of the second round. I expect that's going to fall. I'm certainly not in on him at his second round value. Kenyon Drake, 94.43. That puts him in the eighth round.

I will see where he ends up going. Eighth round, best ball, Tom. I'll be buying on Kenya. All day. Even though, you know, even though it was kind of shaky last year, I do think he has that skill set as a receiver. It was absolutely bizarre what Cliff Kingsbury was doing down there with him last year. You know, everybody was all, you know, he was a, you know, high-end second round pick.

He was sneaking into the first round at times at points over the summer last year. So I think he still can do it. You know, a very interesting guy there. You know, if that, his price remains the same, I would expect it to tick upward. But I'll be buying at that kind of a price. Let's go. There's a couple more. running backs, Tom, who have signed.

James White, back to the Patriots. I mean, obviously, Cam Newton completely tanked his value. He's completely off the radar for me. Yeah, yeah. Well, maybe not if they get a new quarterback in the draft. But, yeah, I mean, he is a 15th round type of guy. But even with all the moves they made in the off, you know,

getting two tight ends, getting these extra receivers, if they draft the quarterback, you know, we see a lot of these young quarterbacks, you know, they don't really check it down to the running backs as much as, you know, some of the veteran types. So, you know, James White will be, that's an easy fade for me at this point. You know, he's not like he gets carries and goal line, a ton of goal line touches. So, you know, the upside is no longer there that Tom Brady's gone. Marlon Macked back to the Colts. I saw, there were some people, Tom, just freaking out about this. Like, oh my God, what's going to happen to Jonathan Taylor?

Oh, God. I have no idea how they could look at what Jonathan Taylor did at the end of last year and decide, oh, Marlon Mack's back, baby. Let's give Jonathan Taylor 10 carries a game. It's not going to happen. Fingers crossed, Joe, and there's just this perception. You know, this is a devastating injury for Marlon Back to come back from. I mean, he might not be right again in his career, you know,

let alone at the beginning of the season here or, you know, by the middle of the season. So I hope people, you know, keep Mack in this position where they think he, He's going to really usurp, you know, carries from, you know, Jonathan Taylor here for the upcoming season. Maybe that will help Jonathan Taylor's price dip a little bit. But, you know, I have a tough time seeing Jonathan Taylor getting out of the first round in a lot of drafts in August. I'm sure as hell not freaking out about Marlon Mack being there.

No doubt about that. Philip Lindsay goes to the Texans. Tom, Philip Lindsay is one of those guys who there is just a huge difference of perception between what fans view of him and what the team views of him. And you obviously throw out all the respect in the world to Lindsay for the way he's grinded from being a UDFA. But here's the problem with Philip Lindsay, Tom. We now have multiple coaching staffs, multiple front offices in Denver,

that have essentially determined this guy can't play on third downs. He can't play on passing downs. He's not a good receiver and he's not a good pass blocker. So what does that do? Makes your offense predictable. So Denver went out and essentially exchanged, Philip Lindsay for a more versatile player in Mike Boone. Lindsay lands with the Texans who now have a terrible backfield for fantasy.

And obviously with the Deshawn Watson situation, I mean, just full fade for me with the Houston Texan backfield. Yeah, I'd be much more interested in Mike Boone. He'll be an interesting guy to kind of fall here in August. He'll be on that radar because I think he's an interesting guy. Melvin Gordon, you know, he played well in. spurts last year, but it was mostly down, you know, mostly a down year for him. Of course, had the DUI in the middle of year that kind of, you know, seemingly derailed his

season here. But, you know, kind of a guy, you know, depending on price, you know, probably a fade if he's going to be, you know, a third or a fourth round pick because of this, you know, kind of owns the backfield now. But like boom, Mike could be interesting at the end of the summer. Still has Devonte, still has Roy's Freeman there. You know, not really, not really too much of a challenge to overtake him. So might be an interesting guy at the running back position. Oh, I love Mike Boone in drafts this year. Like just he's a preseason DFA, for the sickos who play that. He's a favorite. He's got the measurables. Yeah, I'm all over. Yeah. And he also, George Patton, former Vikings, you know, in their front.

office there, you know, in Denver making the decisions now. So, you know, he wasn't on the market for very long after he was let go by the Vikings, you know, at the beginning of free agency. So he snapped them up pretty quickly. So he might have some plans for him to get him involved. So, yeah, the needle is pointing upward for him. Tom, we have a couple interesting tight end moves, not significant to talk about, but we'll get to those right after Ben Cucanus and a word from our sponsors. Thank you very much, Ben. Tom, Gerald Everett to the Seattle Seahawks is interesting to me. It feels like that that's one of those guys that needed to get to a second spot in his career to totally bust out. And, you know, they didn't break the bank for him. But this is a lot more

interesting than them putting a Band-Aid on the position like they did with Greg Olson last year. Yeah, this is definitely an upgrade over Greg Olson. And Jacob Hollister also left as well, which certainly helps. You know, Will Disley is kind of a coaching staff favorite up there a little bit. So, you know, he's not going to Seattle and going to suddenly, you know, he still has the issue with contending for targets with another tight end. Like, you know, he had the last couple of years with Tyler Higby in Los Angeles. But, you know, I still think it's a good move.

Shane Waldron was his, you know, he coached him a bit at the position. and now he's calling plays for the Seahawks here. So that's certainly that level of familiarity. I'm sure he put in a good word for, you know, for Everett, you know, as they were making moves this off season. So, you know, there's some promising signs there. And we've seen Russell Wilson a little bit earlier in his career. You know, he loved targeting tight ends in the red zone,

not so much the last couple of years, but maybe it's because they haven't had the right tight end the last two years. So, you know, Everett, you know, he'll hold a whole thing. probably be in that low end tight end two and high-end tight-end three range. But I do still think there's some upside there. Definitely an athletic freak. So maybe the change of scenery, you know, we'll see if the Seahawks make any more moves at the receiver position. Antonio Brown is kind of on the radar there. But if it stays, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett as the clear top two options, maybe he can slide into that number three rule in this option.

offense and, you know, maybe he could see 75 plus targets in this offense. Jared Cook, Tom, again, this is one of those square pegs, square hole moves like John Brown going to the Raiders. The void left by Hunter Henry, Jared Cook fills it. And he probably provides a little bit of veteran leadership and a little bit of a cushion, Tom, in case Donald Parham isn't ready to break out here. Yeah, this is a pretty smart move. You know, it gives them another athletic, you know, option at the position.

you know, his numbers, you know, went down a little bit here this, you know, last year or so. But, you know, Drew Brees wasn't really a guy that was really pushing the ball down field. Gets back to, you know, with another quarterback, you know, he had some pretty good years with Aaron Rogers. Justin Herbert can certainly get the ball down the field a little bit. You know, I, you know, it might be a good one to get Greg Kosell on this summer a little bit because, you know, I think Jared Cook will be a pretty nice, you know, potential value. really late in drafts because I think people are kind of writing him off. But I'd love to know if he's still moving really well and could potentially be a seam stretcher for this offense.

So, you know, he was, you know, there's four targets a game in New Orleans. You know, if he just gets up to six or seven a game, you know, playing with Justin Herbert, you know, there's certainly worse picks you can make for a low-end, tight end two at this point. Kyle Rudolph, Tom, I have no interest in Rudolph for fantasy, by the way. The only concern is the Giants overuse him. That is a major concern because, you know, we've seen Jason Garrett loves these Jason, you know, he's essentially a Jason Witten type.

So that's the major concern here. I had to move Evan Ingram down a little bit in my tight end rankings. It has not been a good two weeks for tight ends here for our fantasy purposes. is a guy like Hunter Henry, Johnny Smith. Guys, I had the slide down in my rankings because they're just going to be bulturing each other. And now Evan Ingram gets Kyle Rudolph, who we know he's going to bite off a nice chunk of targets probably from him.

And he's going to be a weapon that they use down in the red zone, which is, you know, not great for, you know, Kenny Galdine's Sequin Barclay as well. So, you know, I would expect Kyle Rudolph to be way more involved that we really hope next season. A team that barely used the tight end position as a receiving threat last year, Tom was the Carolina Panthers. And maybe it's just because Ian Thomas hasn't developed the way they would have liked Ian Thomas to develop. Manhurt's is gone. He goes to Jacksonville. And they bring in Dan Arnold, who has always flashed Tom. And he's 26 years old. He's played with the Saints. He's played with the Cardinals. You look at a guy like Arnold who had four touchdowns last year.

the best could be ahead for Dan Arnold. And if you're drafting three tight ends in best ball, you could do worse than Dan Arnold. Yeah, I'm going to be very interested in him. I mean, they had nothing from Ian Thomas. He finished dead last in yards per route run last year at the position. And Arnold seems like, you know, he's definitely a guy that's ticking upward. You know, Sean Payton always had a thing for him in New Orleans.

He would, you know, take targets away from other guys and goes to Arizona last. year, you know, didn't really find his footing early in the season. But, you know, when Christian Kirk kind of vanished for the last two months of the season, Dan Arnold was kind of the guy that, you know, stepped up a bit. And they started to work him into the passing game a little bit more. And, you know, he has a really strong background. I mean, he was a former receiver, you know, a Division III school, Wisconsin, and an All-American track athlete, a hurdler. So, you know, has a pretty intriguing background. God, it's, you know, relatively fresh at the position. We've, you know, we see this all the time at the tight end position where, you know, we saw Logan Thomas develop late.

Darren Waller developed really late a couple, you know, just two years, you know, two years ago in Oakland in the final season of Oakland here. Maybe Dan Ordle, you know, I'm not saying it, but, you know, there's definitely a chance that maybe he's the next guy in that kind of mold where, you know, quiet beginning to his career, but tantalizing. athletic traits and, you know, certainly going to an offense. He's going to play with Joe Brady, who he worked with the Saints. It's nothing from Ian Thomas. They lose Curtis, Samuel, you know, David Moore's perimeter guy.

There's some targets available in the middle of that field for Dan Arnold here. So definitely a guy I'm keeping an eye on, you know, any hope for him would be, kind of squandered here if Kyle Pitts lands in Carolina. on the radar there at number eight. He's going before that. I think so. I have a tough time seeing him get past maybe your Eagles if Jamar Chase goes. Yeah, the eagle, I don't think he's getting past the Eagles, Tom.

Unless the only, I mean, we'll have this discussion in the future. The only way I see him getting past the Eagles is if there's a bunch of trades for quarterbacks into the top four and the Eagles determine they want Jamar Chase more than Pitts. But other than that, I don't see him really getting past the evening. Yeah, there seems to be a lot of momentum for Pitts to go before that. But if he would happen to slight, it would be a great, believe me. We want Kyle Pitts to land in a good offense. Carolina would be a great one for him to land in for our purposes. But, you know, if it doesn't happen, don't forget about Dan Arnold. It's all I'm saying. All right, Tom, that'll wrap it up. We went about an hour here on the podcast.

you're talking to some of the free agency moves. If there's anything, Tom, that kind of comes down the pike here when it comes to Leonard Fournett, some of those other receivers and running backs you mentioned. We'll mention it. But certainly, I think we did a nice job the last couple of weeks breaking down these big moves. We'll be getting into draft content here, Tom. I mean, basically behind the scenes, I have been just editing and editing and editing and editing and profiles here for our draft guide, which remember, $25 at FantasyPoint.com gets you.

over 100 profiles from Greg CoSell, get to his staff mock draft, Devy rankings from West Huber. It's going to be really great. That's going to be dropping soon here, too. It looks phenomenal. We're going to have an app. It looks great.

It's just really cool looking. We're in the process of doing the staff mock draft right now. And Tom, we have all the great content up covering free agency at FantasyPoint.com. You and I have been doing kind of these trackers with brief blurbs, but for some of the bigger moves,

Graham Barfield's been breaking them down. John Hanson's been working on his projections. Oh, yeah. We saw our first projection of the year from John on Matt Stafford. Yeah, John did a projection for Stafford. Yep. Yeah, so we, he's got that done. We're getting, we're easing into the 2021 season.

It's already starting to come around here, Joe. I can't believe it. Scott Barrett's rookie model is up for tight ends and running backs. He's done a phenomenal job. As a matter of fact, he and Wes Hubert did a tight-end podcast last night. So make sure you check that out on our podcast feed. I want to thank everybody for listening. Remember to go to FantasyPoint.com and take advantage of that 20% off early bird special.

You don't have to do anything. It's 20% off the base price. You don't need to put a code in. It's just automatic. So that expires May 1st. I just want everybody to know that. Follow him on Twitter at Tom Braille. Follow me on Twitter at FG underscore Dolan.

Thank you for listening to this free agent. RAP-up podcast on the Fantasy Points podcast, and we will talk to you guys next week. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points Podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform, and come join the roster at FantasyPoint.com.