Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 IDP Corner: Overrated/Underrated

Episode Date: August 4, 2021

The IDP boys are back! Justin Varnes (@downwithIDP) and Tom Simons kick off their 2021 podcast season with a look at overrated and underrated IDP fantasy assets. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top-level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room, with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Welcome to the 2021 edition of the IDP Corner, sponsored by FantasyPoint.com. I'm one of the analysts at IDP analysts over at FantasyPoint.com, and with me is the other IDP analyst and projections specialist. Mr. Thomas, Simons, how you doing tonight, Thomas? Heidi, ho, neighbor. I'm doing all right. Looking forward to the upcoming season, which is upon us. Yeah, we got a lot of new things that we're going to kind of roll out this year. We're going to be

doing a lot of preseason stuff, kind of help everyone get set up for their drafts, which we're going to go over in just a minute. But I kind of want to just get started with some late-breaking news here. There hasn't been a whole lot of training camp stuff that has really jumped off the page, but this is one of them, which was that a cornerback, Jeff Gladney of the Minnesota Vikings, or formerly of the Minnesota Vikings, I was released today. He had already been in trouble a little bit for some domestic violence situation, and he was officially indicted today, and so the Vikings cut him loose. So that obviously, besides, you know, if we push the legal stuff aside,

what that means for the Vikings is that's, you know, one fewer cornerback to kind of of figure out over there across from Patrick Peterson, who should be the other likely starter. But glad he was a high draft pick. This is a big blow. I'm pretty sure to Mike Zimmer's future plans for this defense. Yeah, I mean, also, if you get released like that, it doesn't bode well for you avoiding the charges. So there's also news regarding, you know, some of the return of the COVID-19 players who opted out last year who should be back this year players like michael pierce star lot to lealy

uh eddie golellan just to name a handful of defensive tackles dante hightower is another one that you know these players should be returning um i haven't heard anything yet uh on any of them opting out permanently for this year um so they're they're at this point in time i'm sure there's a lot of hamstring injuries and ankle injuries and and minor things that players are just getting over or running into with the start of training camps. So there's nothing major so far, but we'll have to keep an eye on that as we move along. Yeah, luckily, it's been, obviously, training camp is just getting started. They just put the pads on, so things are going to be moving a little bit slowly.

But, you know, one of the, one of the things I want to piggyback on there, Thomas, is just a reminder that a number of defensive tackles more than I think any other position opted out last year in terms of, you know, just for COVID concerns, I imagine playing right there in the middle of the defensive line would worry a lot of people. So there are a lot of defensive tackles who were off everyone's fantasy radar this year that we have to make sure that we plug back into. Speaking of training camp and preseason games, the preseason games are going to get started here pretty soon.

So what we're going to be doing up until. week one of the regular season is we're going to be starting to break down exactly some of these training camp battles, position battles, defensive scheme rotations that we're seeing. We have some new defensive coordinators. We're going to try and put all that together and really get into how that might shift projections and rankings and stuff. Most of that will get started next week. They're obviously just now putting on the pad. So we don't want to put too much weight into anything like an unofficial depth chart or any of that nonsense. So what we're going to do today mainly is go over.

This is becoming a little tradition for us, a little game called overrated, underrated. We're going to pick some players that we think might be overrated or underrated. The other thing I want to add is that I'm going to drop a new article on the next couple of days. It's going to be called the defensive flyover, for those of you who are on FantasyPoint.com. And it's going to give you a very quick rundown. I was just talking about defensive schemes. It's going to give you a very quick rundown of which defenses usually play two linebackers, like usually meaning 60 to 100 percent of the time.

Some defenses only play one linebacker. Some defenses typically play two high versus single high. Some defenses rotate a lot of defensive linemen while others play a lot of the same linemen over and over again. That matters a lot when it comes to draft time and understand why one player might be ranked higher than another. and also if there's any sort of shift personnel-wise on that team, if you have a good sense of how many linebackers they're going to try it out to begin with, you'll know whether this other linebacker who's taking over for somebody who actually might get significant snaps or if they're still just going to be a bit or a role player as we go.

So that'll be competent in the next couple days. The next couple days will also feature some actual football. Indeed. I mean, there's the Hall of Fame game on Thursday night, which is about 48 hours away from when we're doing this. podcast. So that'll be Dallas versus Pittsburgh. I know. I know. It's the Hall of Fame game. And chances are you're going to see a lot of players. You go, who? But it is football. And it is the start. And the fact is we're one game less in the preseason. I'm still believing that week three of the preseason is going to be the normal week three of any preseason year prior to

this. But, you know, we'll have to wait and see how it all plays out. as teams will probably fire out their starters for at least a half of football in that preseason week number three. And we also have one extra game this year, 17 weeks of football. And there are no additional changes to buy weeks, but you're going to be playing one more game, which could be a very difficult thing for players who are injury prone or, you know, there's always the possibility of another injury. And this is also important for everybody to realize, that week 14, there are by weeks.

So a lot of leagues that I've been in have been extending their season, their regular season by one week and beginning their playoffs in week 15 to avoid a playoff by week. So I guess we'll just go ahead and move right into things here and start off with your thoughts on defensive player of the year. Yeah, we're going to hit defensive player of the year and defensive rookie of the year. Just our predictions, our guesses, see how close we can get here. I'm going to fire off kind of a dark horse candidate for this.

And that's actually going to be edge rusher Bradley Chubb. In reviewing the Denver Broncos defense, I think it's an extremely underrated defense. They've gotten some really important pieces back to their unit. And obviously they've got Vic Fangio there, who's a defensive wizard when it comes to defensive coordination. if that Broncos defense does actually snap back and surprise a lot of people. A lot of that I think will hinge on Bradley Chubb. Chubb will have Vaughn Miller, hopefully a healthy Vaughn Miller on the other side of him again this year. As Chub developed last year, he didn't have the advantage of having so much attention paid to the other side of him.

I think this could be a good year for him to make all of that click where he'll have more attention paid to Von Miller than to him. He really kind of started to come together last year and with Fangio as the DC there and to really put together a pretty complicated defense that also they have better cornerbacks than just a better secondary in general, which will give guys like Miller and Chubb a little bit more time to get to the cornerback. So if Chubb has one of those breakout seasons that we know that edge rushers can have, you know, the past seasons are littered with them, and that coincides with the Broncos defense taking a formidable step forward, I think Chubb would be in good position for that.

Who's your defensive player of the year prediction, Thomas? Well, I'm going to go with something that's kind of obvious and may not be the reason why everybody thinks, but Darius Leonard is going to be my defensive player of the year. And I truly believe that his numbers, while they were still stand-down numbers over in 2020, A lot of people felt that he had a somewhat of a down year. But you have to realize that this year is a contract year for Darius Leonard. He's on the fourth year of a contract. A four-year deal he signed in 2018.

So he's playing for a contract. And up front, which I believe you might be mentioning in the defensive rookie of the year, the defensive line has been somewhat improved. And you got DeForest Buckner up there. as well as somebody that I believe you're targeting as a defensive rookie of the year? Yeah, my defensive rookie of the year is going to be Quitty Pay. I think he's just in such a great spot. He fell in the draft because of concerns about a heart issue.

The Colts think they did a really good job of screening that and making sure that everything was going to be okay and that it was just a scare. It wasn't anything major. That does look like that is the case. So Pay kind of fell to them. And, man, he really slots in. First of all, he's got a wide open role. Justin Houston is now on Baltimore, and they desperately need that other pass rusher.

He's going to be playing next to DeForest Buckner, who's a, you know, in my opinion, the second, if not, you know, in other people would be top three defensive tackle in DeForest Buckner. Grover Stewart has been a really strong nose there as well. So I think he's got all the snaps he can handle. he'll be able to chew up. Everybody's going to be paying attention to DeForest Buckner. If guys like Xavier Rhodes can really, you know, Rhodes had a bounce back season as a corner last year,

if he does that again and guys like Darius Leonard do well over the middle, that'll again give pay maybe a little bit more time. And again, it's super early in camp. I think they have four or five practices, but all I'm reading about pay is how quick he is and how impressive he's been and what a steal that has been for them. So first round, nobody in his way to Blackford Snaps. Great D-line across from him that's going to help him stay a little bit more one-on-one

and less double-teamed. So I definitely think he's got a pretty good shot at that. Who's your guest for Rookie of the Year, Thomas? Well, I took a long look at a couple of players, and one of them was J.C. Horn on Carolina, being that he has NFL blood in his family with his dad, Joe. Horn has, being that he dropped so far in the draft that he's been going to play with a chip on his shoulder, and I guess he's been doing really well early in camp. Now, granted, as you mentioned, it's early in camp.

But the man that I'm going to target is Micah Parsons on Dallas. Now, I'll go into this further when we get into overrated, underrated. But Parsons was drafted with the notion of him likely taking over as a middle linebacker down the road. Now, to start the season, he may start off at the outside linebacker spot. It could be the strong side, but I'm more apt to think that they're going to work him into the weak side linebacker position just to get him on the field and get him acclimated to the Dallas defensive scheme. And he's had a really good start to training camp. The quote that I read, and I believe it was Peter King who mentioned it, he says that Parsons is quote unquote wrecking practice.

So this guy is playing like it's actually October, November kind of thing in the first few days of training camp. And Layton Vanderech has been also doing really well in training camp, even though it seems like the writing is on the wall for him, especially with the fact that they took a couple of draft picks and spent him on linebackers, including Parsons. But I think Parsons is going to be a standout as long as he doesn't run into the Patrick Queen problems that he had in his rookie year with Baltimore,

where he makes mental mistakes in the rookie season, and he ends up getting either benched or fewer snaps because of the problems that he has. But the way he's playing in camp right now, that doesn't look like this is going to be a problem. So I'm liking Parsons down the road. Yeah, I think he, you know, particularly with everything going on there with the rotation of linebackers,

it's not going to take much for him to get on the field and do some serious damage. I've also, you know, just thinking about the whole Alden Smith role last year, you know, Parsons throws together, a good number of sacks when they decide to take him off the edge. He could certainly be, and really all it's going to take, I think, is, you know, if he has success there, both, you know, both off the edge and is a blitzer, and if he can, you know, grab a handful of interceptions, maybe even a pick six,

he's going to be right in the mix there, I think. So let's move on to one of my favorite games we play, the overrated, underrated game. We're going to start with the defensive lineman. Thomas and I do not confer on this. We pick three players a piece from the defensive line, from the linebackers and from the defensive backs, who we think are both overrated and underrated. Mostly what we're talking about here is ADP, but also some hype and just checking out rankings and our own kind of thoughts on it. So to get us started for the defensive linemen, why don't you get us cranked up there, Thomas?

Well, you know, it's funny how you said that we don't really discuss it between each other, which we don't. and it's amazing that neither one of us picked the same guy. Yeah. I'm going to start off with somebody that I targeted last year. I know it's a broken record with me choosing JJ Watt. And injury concerns, not meeting his potential, his stats have been down since 2015. All of these things were brought up last year. The problem I have is that he's 32 years old and is entering his 11th season,

and his body has taken a beating. Now, JJ has just nine total sacks since 2018 after double-digit sacks in five of the previous seven years. So, I mean, he did have 32 solos and 16 assists last year, which was his second highest solo and highest assist total since 2016. But now he's in Arizona and he has a new system. He has to learn. Granted, it's a three-four and it's going to probably be similar to what he had in Texas or Houston. But he also has to contend with what I'm calling the Chandler Jones factor. Now, Jones is unhappy as mentioned he wanted to be traded or a new contract.

If Jones remains with the team, which it seems likely is going to happen, Jones, if he stays healthy, could cut into what's possible production or potential production. So if you're expecting JJ to be, you know, 15 sacks and posting 48 to 50, 52 total tackles, I think you need to temper your expectations on that because I don't think he's going to reach those numbers. My first overrated one is going to be Nick Bosa. And just for those of you who haven't heard us do overrated, underrated before, most of our overrateds are going to be top five guys. That's just how this works.

Doesn't mean we think they suck. It just, you know, we're looking for guys who people might be taking fairly high in drafts. So Nick Bosa is the one for me. I believe that he's going to easily be a top 10 edge, a top 10 defensive lineman. But with, you know, as recovering from that ACL, he's going to be, you know, we've seen it in the past where players like this, particularly young players that haven't suffered a ton of interest. doesn't have enough injury history to bounce back and say, you know, they've been playing for six or eight years and they've recovered from a couple of injuries. And so they learn,

they understand that they can trust their body. When it's a, when it's a major injury, particularly early on, sometimes we see these players who don't quite fully trust their knee yet, don't quite, you know, there's a little twinge in the back of their head.

We've seen it a whole bunch. I think that what might happen with Bose. He's obviously being babied a little bit in camp so that he can hopefully be ready by week one. There's a chance he might not be fully ready by week one. There's a chance that for the first three or four games, they might have him on a pitch count so that he's not playing a ton of snaps. And then I think by the middle of the season and definitely by the late season, we're going to see the Nick Bosa that we expected to see out there, you know, mauling left tackles. But up till that point, you know, if he has a slow start to the season, which I believe he's

going to, he's not a top three DL. He's probably going to be a top. know, six or top eight DL. So if you've got that first shot and you're really looking at Nick or his brother, Joey, or Miles Garrett or some of those other guys, every time I'm leaning away from Nick, unless all those other guys in my top three or five are gone. Yeah, and as you mentioned, when you have an ACL injury, sometimes it takes a year, year and a half to actually get back to playing 100% full bore. And like you said, it's more of a mental thing than it is anything else.

I know I tore my knees up when I was in high school football. And when I came back and played in college, I had that in the back of my mind. And it really affected the way I did things, even though I tried very, very hard not to let that happen. Now, my guy, and my second overrated is Daniel Hunter from Minnesota. Now, the two-time pro bowler missed all of 2020 due to a neck injury. Now, the injury was considered minor in the early part of 2020, but then all of a sudden in October, he required surgery, and it turned out to be a herniated disc.

So he did not partake this spring in workouts, but he did practice with the first team at the first time. at the beginning of training camp. So he is back. He is playing. He's taking reps at both the left and right defensive end spot. So he's most likely going to play both positions in 2021. Sometimes that can be detrimental because you may perform better in the left side than he does in the right.

And it all depends on how the guys around him are playing and whether or not he sees more double teams and triple teams. I think they're going to move him around just to avoid that. But still, other than his rookie season, Hunter has not missed a game until 2020. So this is brand new for him, and we don't know how he's going to react to this. Now, last three years as a starter, he's averaged three solos and assists and nearly a sack per game. But the problem I have with all of this is the whole herniated disc issue. And the fact that this was such an injury that started as a minor thing,

and then all of a sudden became a herniated disc with surgery, and they talked about it could actually affect his career. So his career was kind of in jeopardy in November, December. People didn't really know. So we have to wait and see how he does in training camp. So this one could bounce either way for me. But right now I would be very leery of going after the Neil Hunter with, like you said, with the Joey Bosa and the Miles Garrett

and these other players that are out there, I might be apt to let Hunter slide down to number 10 along among defensive ends for the time being. Yeah, and keep in mind that Miles Garrett and Joey Bosa both had some bad luck and some nagging injuries for for Garrett. It was COVID. He got hit with COVID and, you know, COVID affects people differently. He just got knocked on his butt. He missed a couple of games.

And then when he came back, he was not the same player. And he said anyway, he was running out of gas. It obviously could really get to your lungs. So Garrett, in my opinion, is the number one DE. So if you've got a chance to get him or Hunter, you know, you can't look at, I think last year was a down year for Garrett. I think he's going to have a better year this year. And the same thing with Bosa.

Bosa had a couple of nagging leg injuries that slowed him down. He still had a really good year. but there's a good chance that Joey Bosa and Miles Gaird are going to be one and two, and other people might be taking Nick Bosa or Daniel Hunter one and two. So these are ones where if you're in, to get these types of players, you're going to have to, and this is an important part, to get that kind of player, you're going to have to go up in your drafts. You're not going to be able to wait for an elite, the defensive lineman. You're going to have to probably go around or two earlier than you might think.

So if you're going to make that jump, I would prefer it be with somebody that didn't have as many question marks. That said, if Hunter or Nick bosa fall to me, I'm certainly taking them, I'm not scared to take them. I just don't think of them quite as highly as maybe some others or have as much confidence. Yeah, and you point something out very, very well here in the fact that it's not that we don't like Hunter or don't want Hunter. It's just that you have to take him really, really high in your drafts and or auctions in order to get him. And I think that the downside or the negativity of what could happen with him outweighs of the fact that you've got to go and get them higher than you normally would. There are more, there are better options out there for you

to target, like you said, with Garrett and a few other players before you go after a hunter. And you want to make sure that you get him in around the position that you want them at. And if you don't, somebody else is going to pay the price, especially if he has it down here. You have another overrated for us? Yeah, the third one that I'll go with is Frank Clark. Now, Clark is a edge rush specialist. He is an incredible force off the edge. The problem we have with him is that he faces a three-year prison sentence for felony possession of an assault weapon on charges that happened in March.

He also had gun-related charges brought against him in June, so there are two separate issues that he's dealing with. Now, obviously, if he doesn't do prison time, he will be facing NFL disciplinary action, likely as suspension. Now, his court case is slated for October, but he likely gets pushed back, and personally, chances are that he won't go before a judge until 2022. but he still faces NFL disciplinary action depending on what happens between now and then. And this is why I'm really, really scared of going after Frank Clark really high and really early in a draft because of the fact that I don't know what's going to happen with him once the court case comes up in October and it'll get pushed. But how far does it get pushed? Does it get pushed in November? Does it get pushed to December? I mean, we all know that with the COVID-19, a lot of the

courts are backlogged and a lot of these things take time. I personally don't think he's going to go before a judge before the end of the season. But that doesn't mean that something doesn't come out and the NFL says, all right, we have enough information to suspend you. Yeah, we've seen this time and time again. And most of what we're talking about here are elite defensive linemen who have some question marks that we think might be a little bit bigger than it might be. seem things that we don't want to ignore. My last defensive line for overrated is Jason Pierre Paul. I'm a huge Jason Pierre Paul. He's a guy I push almost every single year. I pushed him last year. But things are a little bit different. Now, first of all, he had a great season last year.

He had eight and a half sacks, 55 tackles. This is around his career average. This is about what he does. He hovers around double digit sacks and also puts up really solid tackle numbers. So it has nothing to do with his performance last year. And his performance last year wasn't necessarily an outlier of something that we don't think he can do again. The issues for me are he's closer to 33 than he is 32. So he's certainly, particularly for a pass rush reason, getting up there with age. And there is a tried and true formula for coaches when it comes to their older pass rushers. And that is get them off the field until you absolutely need them.

We've seen this time and time again as, as he's. these really talented edge rushers who still have the skills. They still have the pass rush moves. They have all the experience. What you don't want to do is waste those bullets, you know, on games that are blowouts or in obvious run situations, et cetera. They've drafted Joe Tryon as in the first round. And Tryon is there to basically, you know, supplant Jason Pierre-Paul within the next

year or two, right? So what's likely going to happen as Tryon gets more and more comfortable, they'll probably take some snaps off for JPP. Give him a little rest. He'll still play a ton. He'll still put up his sacks. But the chances of him repeating last year being a little bit older. And most importantly, because of Trion's presence, I just don't see him playing the number of snaps that he played last year. already, you know, he played more snaps last year than you might think a 32-year-old pass rusher would play. He played 89% of the snaps for Tampa last year, 943 snaps. That is a ton.

Even in some of his, you know, younger years, he didn't hit that number. So it's unlikely he's going to get, he's going to push a thousand snaps this year. He might be more in the 700. So love him as a DL2, can't afford to take him as a DL1, just because I think they're going to get trying on the field as, as soon as they can. With the long term, with trying to win another Super Bowl of mine, they're going to want to try to keep JPP as fresh as they can.

If you don't have anything else to add to that, let's move on to our linebackers. Overrated linebackers? Who got up first there, Thomas? Well, I mentioned Dallas Cowboys, and I have to say Jalen Smith is on my radar in this regard. Look, the writing is on the wall following the Cowboys' 2021 draft, and all the trade rumors you had in the off season.

Now, Smith has not missed a game in four seasons, and his total tackles, his tackle totals have been really solid, but the problem is Micah Parson is going to push him for the weakside linebacker spot. Now, Smith was playing middle linebacker for a while, then they moved him to the weak side linebacker, and a lot of this has to do with the fact that while his numbers look good, he was wasting a lot of his steps getting to the plays, and this led to the defense having a poor showing in 2020.

Dallas ranked 28th in scoring allowed. They gave up 29.6 points a game. They were 23rd in total yards allowed per game, which was 386.4. And they allowed 158.8 yards rushing per game. Only Houston was worse at just a little over 160. Now, you compare this to what Tampa Bay had, and Tampa Bay was the lowest, and they only allowed 80.6 yards a game twice as much as what Tampa was. And a lot of this is because of players like Leighton Van der Leyen-Sheh and Jalen Smith were not taking good steps toward the ball, and running backs were running free, and they were getting around him. And that's another reason why Dallas went after these linebackers in the draft is because they are not.

confident in Smith and or Vanderech. Now, Vandoresh is having a good camp, so Smith could be the one that could be hurt the most by the presence of Parsons, especially when they go into their sub-packages and they only go to linebackers. Smith could be the one that comes off the field. And when you consider that Keanu Neal is there and seeing lots of reps as linebacker, they're still calling him basically a box safety. but he's with the linebacking group. And as we know in this Dan Quinn-style defense, Keanu Neal, that kind of box safety is tackle competition.

So he'll also be chewing into Smith's tackle opportunity, possibly playing time, but certainly tackle opportunity. There's going to be more of that this year for Jalen Smith to contend with. My number one overrated is Devin White. I'm not trying to pick on the bucks. I realize here back to back, I've got overrated Tampa Bay bucks. But some of this comes from, you know, to win a Super Bowl, you've got to get, you know, there's got to be a certain amount of luck.

Just everything has to click. And we saw that not only with Jason Pierre Paul, but more so with Devin White. I believe strongly that Devin White is a very good linebacker. I think last year's production is not going to be the norm. Devin White had nine sacks as an inside linebacker. Of those nine sacks, he had 15 tackles for loss and 16 QB hits. That's not the normal ratio we see. So he got lucky with his blitzing opportunities.

And granted, we've got Indyman Sue and, you know, Jason Piappol and all these other guys, basically soaking up the entire defensive line. If you can get a crack there and run a linebacker up there, you're going to get some good results. But there's no way they don't see, the offenses don't see this coming this year. I don't think there's any chance that Devin White's going to repeat those nine sacks. And it's really those nine sacks and those 15 tackles for loss.

Those sorts of things really pushed Devin White, kind of head and shoulders above the other linebackers and scoring. Now, we did have 142. tackles, and obviously that's a really strong number. That's definitely LB1 number, but there's some other players who weren't quite as lucky in terms of the big plays that had equally strong seasons, you know, like Roquan Smith and some players like that, then I'm going to probably take before I take Devin White, I think Devin White is going to be too expensive this year. I want one of my league mates to jump around or too early for Devin White while I wait for someone like Rochon Smith or

or even, you know, I've been amazed at how late Bobby Wagner's going in drafts these days. So mine is going to be Devin White. Love him as a player. I just cannot see him. Everything again has to go perfectly right for him to have that kind of over-the-top LB1 season. And those odds are hard to repeat. My second linebacker is going to be Alex Singleton from Philadelphia. It's not a good sign when you start training camp on the reserve COVID list.

So especially when you consider the fact that they have a new defensive coordinator in Jonathan Gann and he's going to be bringing in his new system. And you're going to be missing time working in this system and taking reps and practice because you're on the COVID list. Now, we don't know if he was put on the list, whether because of the fact that he actually has COVID-19 or Delta variant or whatever the case may be, and or if he was just exposed to it. The problem is he's missing time. And then you add into that the fact that they went out and got Eric Wilson and Genard Avery. And they drafted two linebackers. It makes for a very crowded linebacking core.

Now, granted, Singleton posted 114 total tackles in 2020, but he may not play the same role in this new system. So I could see his numbers taking a dip, his snap count being down a little bit. the longer he's out, the harder it is for him to claim a starting position. One of my other overrated players is going to be the linebacker out of Denver, which is Josie Jewell. Josie, I think, played a lot more last year than the team wanted him to play. He was exposed multiple times. He had a breakout season statistic-wise.

He had 113 tackles and started all 16 games. but the reality is that I don't think they want him on the field that much. And you can, you know, first of all, they drafted Justin Strannad to essentially supplant Jewel, but Strannad had a preseason injury and didn't play last year. So he's going to be back in the mix. They also drafted Baron Browning. So they've got two players who are going to be gunning for that job next to Alexander Johnson in Denver.

I don't think Josie Joel is going to completely disappear and go to the bench. What most likely will happen is that Jewel will play on obvious running downs and then a combination of Browning or Stranad, or possibly some of their, you know, they're pretty loaded in the secondary. They got Kyle Fuller, Ronald Darby, Bryce Callahan, obviously Kareem Jackson, and Justin Simmons. They obviously have Patrick Sertain as well, Duke Dawson. And so I could see either Browning, who was their third round pick, get some snaps there and kind of play. Also, Joel played a lot of on ball. He would get up on the edge, and that's something that where Browning can really take that roll over.

I see Ronald Darby taking more big dime snaps for the team as a third safety where a player like Jewel would come up. I just don't like seeing him hitting the triple-digit tackles and anyone expecting that to happen again this year. I don't see him playing enough snaps to really pull that off, particularly with the crowded secondary and the fact that they've got players behind Jule that they're hoping will blossom this year and take some snaps away. My last linebacker for overrated is going to be Devondre Campbell.

Now Campbell remains in a three-four system with his move from Arizona to Green Bay. He posted 88 or more total tackles in four straight seasons. And Cambo only has fantasy value, though, in Green Bay is if he plays that left inside linebacker spot, but there's no guarantee he starts there. Now, that position has been

a gold mine for any left inside linebacker the Packers have had. And it goes back to Blake Martinez and Christian Courtsday and so on and so forth. The problem that he has is that he has to beat now Kamal Martin, Chris Barnes, Ty Summers, and or in Berks. So he's got a lot of competition going on, and he may not be able to beat these guys out. And if he doesn't, he ends up as an outside linebacker, and he shares snaps with one of the Smith guys.

So either Zedarius or Preston. Now, big plays are especially not part of his fantasy arsenal. So, for example, he's never had more than two sacks in a season. So playing outside linebacker is kind of a downside for Campbell. I don't see him being the edge rusher. So this whole situation in Green Bay could go either way. It's all going to be whether or not he can earn that left-inside linebacker position. If he does, then his stock will rise a little bit.

But if it doesn't, you're going to pay or go after him too high and with the notion of that he's going to start it left-inside linebacker. And if he doesn't win that job, you're in. deep, deep, dude. Yeah, and from what I'm hearing out of training camp so far, Barnes has the lead in terms of being the three-down linebacker. And the Packers, again, another fairly busy secondary, the Packers have been rolling out a lot of packages that only have one linebacker.

So Campbell's snaps are in danger, that's for sure. I totally agree with that. Speaking of somebody whose snaps might be in danger, this one comes with a caveat. Yeah. This was Joe Schobert out of Jacksonville. We've seen a little, just a hint of this. So if this takes hold over the next couple of weeks, and we'll mention this on the podcast and try to follow this up.

So this is kind of a conditional one. But Urban Meyer has taken a liking to Damien Wilson. They brought him over from Kansas City. Kansas City ran a very complicated defense. and Damien Wilson was one of the pieces in the middle, one of the cogs that featured multiple looks from linebackers and defensive backs all kind of put together. They've talked a lot about Jacksonville's defense being a very different beast than it was last year or the year before. So there could be a lot of different looks there.

Wilson has been rotating with not only Joe Schobert but also Miles Jack, but mainly he's come out sometimes as a first team linebacker over Schobert and has created what a lot of beatwriters think might be a competition there. So there's still a good chance that Schobert's going to come out on top, but it's just enough to give me pause that if I have to draft in the next week or two, I might pause on hitting that Joe Schobert button if there are some other solid linebackers whose roles are much more clearly defined. Again, I think Schoberts's going to come out on top,

But if I had to draft tomorrow, I'd be a little bit worried about so far how they're deploying Wilson. And also remember that any time a defense changes defensive coordinators clearly changes schemes, a lot of things can be up in the air. And particularly if we're going to try and grab one of the very few solid LB1s out there, if there's any doubt that Chaubert might not hold that role, we want to know that sooner rather than later. Should we move on to defensive backs there, Thomas? Yes, indeed. And I'm going to, again, like with defensive linemen,

I'm going to target some top-end D-Bs. And the first one I'm going to go after is Patrick Peterson. There's a reason why the Cardinals let Peterson leave via free agency. The last two seasons, Peterson has allowed 12 yards per completion. He's allowed four TDs and a completion rate over the completion rate over. 65%. Now, are these shutdown cornerback numbers? Absolutely not. Now, Mike Zimmer's defensive scheme plays to Peterson's strengths, yet he's not the same stud he was with Arizona. And at 31 years old, he's entering his 11th season. I wouldn't say he's lost a step, but he's definitely lost a stud

step. He's not the stud he once was. My number one guy is Jeremy Chin. He's another guy who, you know, I still think he's going to have a phenomenal season. But similar to Devin White in that he had just so many things go right for him. He had a, I think he had a couple of fumble recovery for touchdowns. What was in like back-to-back games, if I remember correctly? He just had, you know, an amazing, like, dream season. Not only are those statistically really difficult to repeat, it's actually less that and more that they've made. it very clear that Chin is going to be playing less linebacker and certainly less off the edge.

He basically was an outside linebacker last season. And, you know, not only Chin, but multiple coaches have made it clear that Chin will be more of a regular strong safety or safety in general. They also mentioned something that was a little concerning to me. They mentioned that they're, you know, they want to, they want to, they want to, lengthen his career. And when you hear that they want to lengthen your career, that usually means they're trying to get you away from the action so that you're not taking so many hits. That's what the Cowboys did to Sean Lee.

They moved him out of the middle to lengthen his career, to take him away from the action a little bit. So obviously, Chin's value is not going to completely disappear. But, you know, if he ends up being more of a traditional safety risk, role, then he's not going to put up those monster LB type numbers that we see from, that we saw from him last year. So I like him as more of a mid to back end DB1. I'm not taking him over someone like Buda Baker or some of these other players like that. Or, I mean, at this point, I think I would take Derwin James coming off an injury, particularly with his role there. He is the most important

person in that Chargers defense. He's going to be wearing the green dot. He's going to be the signal collar. I would take Derwin James over Jeremy Chin, even over the amazing season he has. I think he's going to be good. I think he's probably going to be top 10, but I don't think he's going to be that just out of his mind, baller that he was last season. Speaking of out of his mind, a lot of you are going to think I'm out of my mind when I tell you that Jamal Adams is my next target as overrated. Look, I watch, I do all the Seahawk home games. I love Jamal Adams.

The problem I have with Adams is that one, you're going to have to go after him very, very high and very, very early. And yeah, he had nine and a half sacks last year as a DB, which is unheard of for a DB. Now, he's solid inside the box, but he's really a liability when it comes to pass coverage. Last year, he allowed 77.8% completion rate when he was. in pass coverage. He allowed approximately 410 yards receiving and he gave up multiple touchdowns via the air. Now, the biggest concern I have with him right now is not just, is he a liability in the past coverage, but is he what's going on with that contract? We still don't know what kind of negotiation is going on between him and the team. We know they're working on it and there's talk

that it'll be done before the season begins. But this is a big concern. And if the contract negotiation isn't taken care of, it becomes a distraction. And we've seen what happened to Adams when he was with the Jets and his contract negotiation became a distraction. That's the reason why I think Adams is going to do well for you. I think he's going to put up numbers. The problem is you're going to have to take him way too early in order to get them.

One of my guys, and I agree with that, you know, Those sack numbers are so delicious when you see them. And I still believe he's got that capability. If he plays the majority of the games, he's still going to, I mean, he always puts up almost double the number of sacks than any other defensive back. That's just one of his skill sets. But yeah, and they've got, you know, the Seahawks are working on a lot of different defensive packages where, you know, Marquis Blare is more involved as kind of like the nickel safety. right now Ryan Neal is playing over Jamal Adams, obviously because Adams is sitting out. So the team has options that, you know, obviously they want Adams to play, but, you know,

I don't think the team is in such a position where they've got to cave to his demands or they have to do whatever because he's, you know, he's so valuable as a blitzing defensive back. But because he's such a liability with some of the other issues, which is I'm sure, you know, part of the contract negotiations is, you know, he's a hell of an impact player, but because he's not necessarily the complete safety that, you know, maybe other safeties like, you know, I just mentioned like Derwin James, some of these other players who can blitz, who can tackle, and who can cover really well, I'm sure that that's the issue and it's not something that's going to go away quickly. So I agree with that. Every time I get to either of these next two players' names,

They pop up in a draft so far. I always hesitate. And there's something in the back of my mind that has me worried about this. And it's the combination of Keanu Neal and Donovan Wilson for the Cowboys. Both of these players, if only one of them was on the team, I wouldn't even hesitate. The issue is that right now, their roles aren't crystal clear. Are they only going to use Neal in situations where he can come in and be a box safety? If so, does that mean he's off the field in between?

And Wilson also is way better in the box than he is playing center field. And Quinn brought over free safety Demonte KZ, who knows his scheme well. So there's something to be said for putting KZ back there as your safety valve, someone who knows the defense well, understands the calls, and isn't going to be, you know, more often than not, isn't going to be in the wrong place at the wrong time as your last line of defense. If so, how they split up their playing time with Neil and Wilson makes me a little bit worried that both of them might not be on the field 100%.

And when it comes to taking a safety who's ranked or valued that high, you know, I'm not overly concerned. I think both of them are going to productive seasons. I just can't help the feeling of always hesitating. when their names come up on the draft war, when it's clear that I should take them there, I often don't just because I just, I need more information. Hopefully we'll have this sorted by the, by preseason week three. But for those of you who are drafting soon, it's just a little bit of a mess there.

And I'm not even sure Quinn knows exactly how he's going to deploy all these people. So it's just a little concerning because both of them have a similar role, should be used similarly. And neither of them are going to excel in the free safety position. but somebody's got to play back there. So I'm curious to see how all this shakes out and how they use both Neil and Wilson, which means I'm not sure how they're going to use them, which means I'm a little bit scared to draft them as a DB1. Happy as a DB2, thrilled as a DB3,

but they're going too high. It's too rich for my blood. Yeah, and you also have to consider, too, that Wilson was benched last year, got the start, and then didn't do well. And they kind of played with them in and out of the lineup kind of deal. And then, like you said, they went out and they got Neil and they got KZ. And Quinn, it's just his system is going to be such that he's probably going to rely on people who know the system really well.

So there's going to be a lot of interchanging going on there. Now, my third defensive back overvalued is Xavier and Howard. Now, Howard has been the talk of the offseason among DBs with his request for a trade. Now, you have to be careful not to get caught up in the hype as his numbers are very deceiving. Yeah, he can be a big play supplier, as evidence in his 10 INTs and 20 PDs last year. Yet, he only had 12 I&Ts in the four seasons combined prior to last year. So he had almost as many over four years as he did last year. Now, his 46 tackles last year were his highest single season total in five seasons,

but we're not sure if he's going to get traded. And if he doesn't get traded, then this could be a really long, ugly year. for this cornerback, especially with the fact that he's a shutdown cornerback. My last overrated defensive back is a safety, and that's Cameron Curl. And this is kind of a mirror of what I was just referring to when it comes to how they're going to deploy all these safeties. Landon Collins, I was unsure how he was going to look coming back from his injury. But I'll report so far is that Landon Collins looks great. and looks to be the player that he was pre-injury.

If that's the case, and Collins is on the field all the time, Bobby McCain is a good bet to end up as their free safety. He's a natural free safety. He's older, of course, but he did play well for Miami last year, and he is a good fit back there. Similar to what we were talking about with the Cowboys, do they use Curl as the Free Seasons? safety. They're not going to use Collins as the deep man. So do they trust Curl back there?

If they don't trust Curl back there, they've got Bobby McCain or possibly Deshaver DeShazer Ebert. It just worries me that Curl might not have, well, Curl won't have the season he had last year once he finally earned that role. I think they like the kid a lot. But with Landon Collins back, that certainly trims your expectations. Even if Curl's on the field a bunch, now Collins is really going to be in that lead safety role. And like I said, depending on how things go, if Curl doesn't adapt to that deep role, he might come off the field when they need someone to really lock down that deep end. And they've got a couple of veteran options there. You know, we see it a lot where we will see a veteran play deep because, as I was just saying, they can see the whole field. They know the calls well.

they're more often than not going to be fooled by reading the quarterback's eyes or shifting over to the wrong side of the field. And then there's no help on the side of the field where the ball is going. So that last line of defense is something that defensive coordinators don't like to toy with. That just got me a little bit worried that I'm not exactly sure how curl's going to fit here. Again, just like with Cowboys and some of these other roles, hopefully a lot of this is going to get answered well before the season starts. But for those of you who have to draft early, these are just some play. players that we're looking at that were a little bit hesitant, either because in the case of like Xavier Howard and, you know, Devin White and whatnot, they're either outlier production

from 2020 that we don't think is possible for them to necessarily repeat. Or their roles are not clear. Now the training camp is started, we're seeing defensive coordinators get out there and move players around. If we, you know, it's like musical chairs into the secondary. You don't want the music to stop and you're the one guy who's not on the field for when the, you know, you know, Curl, I'm sure it's going to be out there for dime packages, but how much are they going to play dime? We don't know yet. So he might be, he might be a 60 or 70 percent player, and that's a little scary when it comes to defensive backs.

Shall we move on to the underrated? Yeah, I mean, if everyone hasn't pulled their car over and started weeping over all this terrible news we're delivering you guys. screaming at us going, what are you thinking? Right. Now the fun part happens. These are our underrated and undervalued players. We're going to do the same thing. We're going to hit three apiece. Let's start with the defensive lineman. Well, you mentioned his name earlier, and that's Indianapolis, Colts, defensive tackled DeForest Buckner. In his first year with the Colts, he saw his tackle totals

dip, and they were the lowest in his five-year career. Still, he nearly recorded double-digit sacks for the second time in his career. He had nine and a half sacks last year. Now, Buckner has 29 total sacks in his last three years combined. And the addition of Quitty Payme should help alleviate some of the double teams and triple teams that Buckner sees. So I could see Buckner achieving similar, if not better numbers than he this year than he did in 2020. My guy is going to be Kyler Fackerel. He's playing opposite Joey Bosa.

So far, Fackerel is in the least. lead to take most of those snaps opposite Joey Bosa there for the Chargers. Uchina Unwasu is going to work in. And he might eventually win that role. But as of right now, Fackerel is in the lead. So Fackerel is buried in ADP. I mean, he's practically free. And if you're the edge rusher on the opposite side of someone like Joey Bosa,

you know, we've made a fortune picking players who are opposite of a phenomenal pass rusher who just they can basically walk up to the quarterback because nobody cares that they're there. They're too worried about players like Joey Bosa. And also because Linvall Joseph had a bounce back season last year for the Chargers. When you have Joseph and Justin Jones playing at a high level in the middle and you've got Bosa on the other side, that's the sort of thing where out of nowhere, Kyler Fackerel has one of these seasons. And it happens every year. There's some edge rusher that's like ends up with.

eight and a half sacks who's never played like that before. And it's often because of how the defensive scheme is set up or nobody's paying them enough attention. To me this year, Kyler Fackerel has a good shot for that. So he's a late round dart throw for you, particularly in leagues where you can play edge and in big play leagues. Yeah, speaking of late round dart throws, Romeo O'Coro is somebody that I would target later in drafts.

He posted double-digit sacks last year with 10, and it was the first time in his five-year career that he had double-digit sacks. Now, he stands out, what really stands out about this is he did this when he started only just nine of his 16 games. Now, he finished the season last year with a sack in four of his last five games. So he proved that he belonged out on the field. He set career highs and total tackles with 39, and he had, I believe it was a career high in solos with 27. So that was in 2020. They're expecting those type of things from him in 2021.

One of my guys I'm really excited about this year is Miami defensive tackle Christian Wilkins. They had a kind of a heavy rotation up the middle. Brian Flores is somebody who I mentioned as a guest on a podcast the other night. Brian Flores has been one of the few defensive coordinators to come out of the Bill Belichick coaching tree to actually pull off his own version of that Belichick defense that he's been running lately. And that kind of defense features a lot of heavy run stopping up front. And so just like with players like Lawrence Guy for the Patriots, you'll get these kind of run stuffers up the middle who, won't get you a lot in sacks, but we'll certainly load up on tackles. And I think Wilkins has a really good shot to do that this year.

Keep in mind that Devon Godshaw is gone now. So there was this kind of inner rotation of Wilkins, Godcha, and, what am I blacking on it, Rayquan Davis, kind of up the middle. I think this year, Wilkins is going to see more snaps. He's going to, he only started 12 games last year. I think he's going to, I think he's in position to start every game this year. So that's going to help him get to the ball more. Two seasons ago, he had 56 tackles starting 14 games.

Last year, he had 47 tackles starting 12 games. So I can see him hitting easily that 50 plus tackle mark. Now, again, this is tackle-based. So think tackle heavy. Think DT required. Over the last two seasons, he has three and a half sacks total. So that's not going to be his. strength, but what will be as strength is in tackle

league, tackle heavy leagues, where you can load up on that scoring. I think that's going to be somebody I'm looking for it. Again, he's going to see more snaps with Godshaw, Gone, who I believe went to New England. What's funny is Flores and Belichick keep swapping players because

they think that these players are great fits, and they basically play the exact same style defense. But the first time that's going to happen, it probably won't be the last. My last defensive lineman for underrated is going to be Stefan Tewitt from Pittsburgh. In 2020, Tewitt had his highest solo output with 31, and he had his second highest assist in his five-year career with 12. Now, last year, he recorded double-digit sacks for the first time in his seven-year career when he posted 11 of them.

Now, the addition of Melvin Ingram will help to it because Ingram will most likely, man the strong side linebacker position and could bounce back and forth with T.J. Watt on the outside moving them around in order to apply pressure. By doing that, it's going to help Cameron Hayward and Stefan Tewitt on the edges where they won't be facing as many double teams as they did last year. Now, Tewitt took 75% of the Steelers defensive snaps in 2020, and I could see him approaching that type of number in 2021. My last underrated defensive lineman is also a defensive tackle, and that's Quinn and Williams. Now, Quinn and Williams might seem like an odd one to have on here because he had a breakout season last year, posted seven sacks in 13 games.

But I believe he's just scratching the surface. I believe he's going to have an even better year this year. For a couple of reasons, right now he's working in the position with Robert Sophe's. So he's got a new defensive coordinator who has gotten a ton of fabulous production out of his defensive line. So I think he's got a great defensive coordinator slash head coach. He's going to basically be playing a role similar to what DeForest Buckner did when Buckner was such a dominant defensive tackle for San Francisco while he was with Salam. Hopefully he stays healthy. I know he's banged up right now, but he's expecting to be able to be ready for week one.

So I don't see that being an issue. But obviously that's something to watch. We have to make sure he's going to be healthy for week one. But he only played 13 games last year due to injury. He's just now kind of coming into his own. Remember, he was a third overall pick a couple of years ago. So I think this retooled defense, the type of defensive coordinator who can really scheme things up and use Williams as strengths to his advantage. I think we're just now seeing Williams come up.

So this will probably be your last year to buy. fairly low on Williams, who could easily be in the DT1 category, top five defensive tackle at the end of the year. You'd want to get him now. I love picking up as many shares of Quinn Williams and Dynasties as I can. Also happy to roll him out as by DT1. He's going much later than some of the other big-name DTs and could easily produce as much if not more of some of those bigger names. So let's move on to linebackers. somebody that is quickly getting on people's radars and well i shouldn't say getting on them he should

be there already is uh zach cunningham from houston he's become the general in the middle of this defense for the texans so much so that they led benarderick mckinney go his total tackles have gone up in each of his four seasons in the nfl he started in his rookie year with eight 84 total tackles went to 101, two years ago he went to 128. And last year he had an unbelievable 151 total tackles. This guy is a tackling machine. And you might get five to seven big plays out of him in any given season, but not much more than that.

So I wouldn't expect big plays from them, but you're going to get tackles and a lot of them. Now, the offense for the Texas could struggle, especially if Deshaun Watson doesn't play for them and they are questionable at who they have at quarterback. They don't have a really strong offense. So this could mean more snaps for Cunningham on the defense. And with a thin defensive line up front, it could lead to, I wouldn't say more, but pretty close to the 150 total tackles he had last year. My number one underrated linebackers, it seems to be a forgotten man, mainly because he was injured for the majority of the season.

last year, and that's Matt Milano out of Buffalo. He dealt with multiple injuries last year and just never could consistently stay out there and play to his full strengths. He's normally a triple-digit tackle guy, and he's somebody that particularly Tremaine Edmonds needs next to him because Edmonds has a few deficiencies of his own, and Matt Milano is, to me, he's perennially underrated. But last year, he only started five games but still had 45 tackles. You know, the year before that, when he played 15 games, he had 101 tackles. Not going to get you a ton of sacks, but he does. I think he's underrated in coverage.

So you'll also get some passes defense. He had nine passes defense in 2019, seven passes defense to 2018. So this is a comeback player that I see, you know, I've even seen him go undrafted in some shallow IDP leagues this year. So I'm all in on Matt Milano as, you know, particularly if I can, if I can scoop him up later as like an LB3, I think he's got tons of LB2 upside. Yeah, so my next linebacker is going to be somebody who's kind of obvious, but it's Blake Martinez.

And I'm putting him here not because he's, people are going, what, Blake Martiz? It's basically because you're going to have to pay for him, but you are going to get what you pay for. You're going to have to draft him higher than most, you know, F for a linebacker one. And the reason being is that Martinez has been very consistent. He's posted 131 total tackles in four straight seasons, or rather I should say over 131 total tackles in four straight seasons. He did have double-digit big plays in his first year with the Giants. 40 in his last four years combined. So Martinez took over 97% of the defensive snaps,

accounting for 1,063 snaps for the Giants last year. If there's a knock on him, he's had too many assists compared to solos in 2020, where he had 75 solos and 65 assists. But still, you're looking at 140 total tackles. And this guy is going to give you the numbers and can be a big play producer. So he can be productive in both heavy tackle scoring leagues

and also big play scoring leagues. My second underrated linebacker is Willie Gaye Jr. For the Kansas City Chiefs, he's my FOIA-A-Lu-A-Con from this year. Last year, I tried to get everyone to get some FOIA-Luacom shares because he had kind of stepped into a bigger role and the coaches and everybody was raving about him, and he ended up having a solid season.

We're always a little worried about how the chiefs deploy their linebackers because they have them on a pretty heavy rotation. It's been very frustrating over the last couple of years to try and find a linebacker who's going to be on the field for three downs. But they drafted Gay two years ago, and they drafted Nick Bolton this year. They used high picks on both of these because I believe they're trying to get some more athletic linebackers out on the field.

They've been using a combination of Anthony Hitchens and Ben Neiman and Dorian O'Donnell, Daniel, and Damien Wilson, who's now on the Jaguars. And I think they're hoping that Gay, who, of course, had a stunted rookie season last year, every rookie, you know, had a stunted season last year. So I don't think they, I don't think they, you know, put much on Gay's plate last year. But so far, the talk is that they're,

They want him to wear the green dot. They want him to have a three-down roll. Whether or not he can fully earn that by the time the season starts is a little up in the air. But even if he doesn't play every down, he's going late in drafts. And I love him just for all the upside. I mean, imagine getting a late pick and them being a top 10 linebacker, which is possible if the chiefs keep him on the field for three downs. and if they don't keep him on the field for three downs,

he can still do at least as good as someone like Anthony Hitchens or Damien Wilson did last year, but most likely better because he's got, you know, they just love how fast he is and how versatile he is, which is the way they want their defense to go. Finally, for me, it's going to be Jordan Brooks on Seattle. Now, this one I teetered on because of the fact that what really is going to, there are two factors here for Brooks.

The first factor is likely he starts camp at strongside linebacker, but I think he should win the weak side linebacker sooner than later and most likely have it secured by week three of the preseason. Now, as long as K.J. Wright doesn't resign, and there's a possibility that that could happen because the Seahawks have not closed the door on Wright returning to Seattle under the right contract case. but Brooks could post close to 100 if not more total tackles if he plays weakside linebacker without KJ Wright on the team. Now he has a season under his belt in this system and he has the top end speed that they desire for that position. Now he was ranked seventh on the team in tackles last year and only started six of 14 games played and that was with Wright on the team. So he has the potential, and he started five of his last six games in his rookie season, and he posted 20 solos, 12 assists, and a PD.

So he has the ability, he has a potential. A full 16, excuse me, full 17 games measures out to about 68 solos and 40 or so assists. That's close to 110 total tackles. Brooks could have a solid season and be a sleeper. Yeah, I like Brooks a lot this year. We've seen KJ. Wright be criminally underrated every season, just playing at Bobby Wagner's shadow. And I think Brooks has all of that capability as well in terms of just soaking up tackle production there. Particularly if things, you know, he also, we mentioned before about Jamal Adams.

If things go south with Jamal Adams, Brooks will probably even have less tackle competition there. and I think they want him to kind of be the future for that team. And now is the chance to get him before he's overpriced. And again, here's another issue with, you know, players who had, you know, issues with COVID protocols last year, not having a training camp, not having preseason. Brooks was also heavily impacted by that. And now he's got all that going for him this year. He's going to have a full regular preseason.

and obviously there's a lot of draft capital when the Seahawks, who rarely take a player in the first round, decided to go ahead and grab Brooks. My last underrated linebacker, I've gotten this guy's an LB3 in almost every deep IDP draft I've done so far, and I'm always incredibly giddy about it. And I don't know why everyone forgets this guy plays football, but that's Alexander Johnson for the Broncos.

Last year, he had 124 tackles. I'll take 124 tackles. out of my LB3. He's getting drafted way too late, in my opinion. He's absolutely their anchor there in that defense. He's got a clearly defined role. They're going to want him there again this year. Like whatever's going on with their linebackers,

it's mainly going to affect Josie Joule, not Alexander Johnson. So I just love that he's, you know, he's basically, as long as he stays healthy, he's going to produce those numbers. You know, he had, he played in, he started 12 games in 2019 and got all the way up to 93 tackles. So, I mean, he's going to, I think he's going to easily eclipse triple digit tackles. And, you know, we talked about Devin White, right, his phenomenal season, and it was a phenomenal

season. He had 140 tackles. You know, Alexander Johnson was just 16 shy of that. He just didn't have nine sacks like, like Devin White. So if Devin White can't repeat those sacks, Alexander Johnson and Devin White could be a lot closer in scoring this year than people might realize. And I can get Johnson five to eight rounds later. So I'm all about picking him up as a later round. You want to move on to our defensive backs?

Yeah, why not? The first one is kind of an obvious in Jordan Poirer. Still, even though he's been putting up top five DB type numbers, He continues to fly under fantasy radars, as many owners don't really see him as the top 5 dB. Poyers set career highs in total tackles last year with 111, and he had 78 solos. That was also a career high. He posted double-digit big plays for the fourth straight year in 2020. Now, if there is a concern, it has to be the 30-year-old entering his 10th season.

But still, I mean, he's playing at the top end of his career. He's still producing and is somebody you can rely heavily on as a DV1. Mine is going to be Jordan. Speaking of Jordan, it's the all Jordan hour, apparently. And just real quick about Jordan Poyer. In some scoring systems, Jordan Poyer was the number one safety last year. But, yeah, he's, I don't know why he's not talked about in that way. There's another guy who I think is similar to that, who I can see here that you've got coming up.

so I'm going to let you have him. But I'm in total agreement with Poir and your last guy, which you'll get to. Jordan Fuller is mine, is my first one for the Rams. First of all, John Johnson's gone. So you've got some production opened up there. Also, Fuller is wearing the green dot, which means no matter what the LB rotation is in front of him, Fuller's going to be on the field for every snap as it's currently set up. They've got Taylor Rap, and they're going to also work in Terrell Burr.

as a third safety in big dime situations. But the fact that Fuller is going to have, you know, no John Johnson to contend with, and he's going to be a, you know, the clear three-down option. There's going to be on the field the whole time. I'm excited to watch him in his second season. They thought he was an absolute steel in the draft when they got him.

And when he finally saw the field last year, he only played in 12 games. He played well. He had five passes. defense. He had 60 tackles in just 12 games. So I like Jordan Fuller again, somebody, I think you can get rather latent drafts as a solid DB too. My next DB is going to be Marlon Humphrey. He set career highs and total tackles with 80 and solos with 68 and tied a career high and assists with 12 last year. Now, he has 11 or more PDs in all four of his NFL seasons. This guy is on the field quite a bit.

He takes a lot of snaps. He averages two INTs per season. He has eight total in his four-year career. He ranked third on the team in total tackles last year, but he led the team in solo tackles. So Humphrey is quietly being ignored by people because he's a cornerback. But this is a guy who can produce tackle numbers and give you big plays. There are very few cornerbacks who will consistently show up.

in the top 25 of scoring for dbs. Cornerbacks are forever bouncing in and out of that. Marlon Humphrey is one of those cornerbacks who almost every year ends up there. And you're right. He goes, you know, we're always preaching how volatile cornerback production is and it is. But there are exceptions.

And Marlon Humphrey seems to be somebody who continually bucks that trend. And obviously the Ravens love what he's doing. He's probably going to play a very simple, role this year. So it's reasonable to expect similar production and you certainly can get it. Obviously, I love him as a CB1. I'm also happy to take him just in DB general leagues as well. My number two guy is going to be Justin Reed. Justin Reed had a pretty poor season last year. They, you know, they stuck him very deep and he struggled with what was a fairly complicated system for him last year.

Now that Levy Smith has taken over for the Texans, he has installed a much, much simpler defense. A lot of the players keep using that phrase that they don't have to think as much. They can just kind of, you know, read and react. And one of the players that's going to benefit the most, I think is going to be Justin Reed. He did, he seems to do better when he can just, you know,

I always call it water buoying it, you know, just whoever, you know, kill the guy with the ball. I think Reed is a little bit better set up for that. There's some other players like that too, like hopefully Tracy Walker in Detroit can have a bounce back season without so much on his plate. But I think Reed is one of those players who can absolutely bounce back now that he won't have so much on his plate

and won't be as hesitant as he clearly was last year. Yeah, and you mentioned Tracy Walker, with Detroit changing their coaching staff And last year, they played with those safeties in and out, in and out there was three of them, and they just mixed them and you could never rely on any of them. That's changed in 2021. So my third and final DB is Justin Simmons. Simmons on the Broncos signed a four-year, $61 million deal with 35-milled guaranteed.

He tied a career high in total tackles last year with 94 and set a career high in solos with 75. He achieved double-digit big plays for the second straight season. So he's a tackle-heavy and a big play scoring heavy kind of guy. He can give you both. Now, the additions of Kyle Fuller and Ronald Darby at cornerback could help him play more in the box, and that leads to solid tackle numbers. Look, Denver loves this guy, and they love him so much, they signed him to a monster contract for four years.

And I think they're also considering using Darby some as a safety, as a third safety, which also helps Simmons move up. I can certainly see plenty of packages where the box is filled with Alexander Johnson and Justin Simmons, while Kareem Jackson and Ronald Darby are the deeper safeties. and that would happen if Patrick Sartan can move in to that. Certan can move into that other role. So there would be options there where it's Fuller and Certain on the outside, Bryce Callahan as the slot corner, Darby as one of the three safeties in Simmons in the box. So already, even if he just repeated what he did last year, I still think he's underrated, but there's a good chance that his production could go up.

I'm going to round us off with. With Daniel Sorensen, it's like every single year we think that Sorensen can't repeat what he did the year before because they got some new players or it was just, you know, weird happenstance that Sorensen, you know, was on the field as much as he was. He's been underrated from the jump, in my opinion. And I would, you know, when I do my like stock watcher or waiver wire ads, the number of times I'd have to be recommending Daniel Sorensen because he's, you know, lighting up scoreboards on people's waiver wires across the board. I got tired of writing. I almost just started copying and pasting it. So, you know, last year he had 91 tackles and he only, you know, he quote, you know, whether or not he. he quote-unquote starts doesn't matter as much. Don't look at the fact that he might not be a

quote-unquote starter because, you know, in today's NFL defenses, there's not, you know, it's not this sort of situation where it's like, okay, well, if you make the starting lineup, you're going to go out there and play 80% of the snaps. It's, okay, what is the first, you know, what's the first offensive personnel grouping? All right, well, we have a defense for that, and we're going to send them out. So now they've started the game. So Sorensen is on the field a ton. For somebody who only, quote, quote, started 11 games last year, he played 82% of the snaps, played almost 900 snaps. So had 91 tackles out of your, out of your DB position. I'll take that.

Had a couple of force fumbles. Also had three interceptions. Second time in his career, he's had at least three interceptions. As it's looking now, it is looking like they're planning on continue to use Sorensen in the box. and as of now it's been Sorenson and Matthew running with the ones where as of now Thornhill would be the third safety that comes on the field when there's only two safeties. It might be Sorenson and Matthew. If that holds, Sorensen is going to have at least as many snaps this year, if not more. And you know, he could easily push for those hundred tackles.

So I'm all about Daniel Sorensen late in the draft. Right, there was some sunshine after all that rain early on there. I hope everybody enjoyed you again. These are just kind of season predictions. A lot of the stuff is going to change as we get more information coming in from training camps and preseason games. Keeping in mind that going forward, now, Thomas and I are going to pop on once a week now, each week we're going to update you on training camp battles, beat writer reports, what we see from preseason film. and try to get everyone set up for a lot of these linebackers and defensive backs. Where are they going to play?

How often are they going to be on the field? And make sure to check out for that defensive flyer flyover PDF that should be coming out here pretty soon for FantasyPoints. Which is going to give you a pretty clear view if you have to decide between some linebackers or defensive linemen how often they might play. That's something to kind of keep out as you prep for your drafts. For Thomas Simons, my name is Justin Varns. We are the IDP analyst for the Fantasy Points.com website run by John Hanson. I mean, so many great, brilliant minds over there. We're honored to be a part of that unit and to lock down the IDP section.

And we will see you guys next week. Thomas, take us out. Be well and be safe. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points Podcast. Remember to subscribe, wait, and review on your favorite platform. and come join the roster at FantasyPoints.com.