Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Rookie & Dynasty Talk with Danny Kelly

Episode Date: April 9, 2021

Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) brings on The Ringer's Danny Kelly (@DannyBKelly) to talk incoming rookies, dynasty leagues, and more, while looking at the 2021 Fantasy Points Draft Guide. Get 20% OFF Manscaped PLUS Free Shipping when you use promo code FP2021 at MANSCAPED.COM! --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoint.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Ladies and gentlemen, you are listening to the Fantasy Points podcast. And oh boy, what a special podcast we have for you today. we have the great Danny Kelly of the ringer, one of the best draft guys in the game. Go on the ringer, check out his mock draft, check out his big board, his player comps, his player profiles, who he thinks the best wide receivers, running backs, tight ends, quarterbacks are in this draft class.

And he also just so happens to be one of the best dynasty guys around, one of the best fantasy guys around, one of the best fantasy guys around. I know a few years back, he was like pretty NFL only. And he's like a brilliant NFL mind diving in deep into the X's nose. And it's clear he brought that knowledge over to the fantasy side. So he has a big leg up on the rest of us for that. And he's been absolutely crushing it over at the ringer. And he's also a close personal friend.

Danny, how are you doing? I'm doing excellent. Thank you for that intro. And thank you for teaching me about fantasy football. because yeah like you said a couple years ago I think I came to you and I was literally like dude tell me how to play fantasy I suck at this I like supposedly

know the NFL pretty well but fantasy is this whole other ballgame where you know you kind of just have to pay attention to different things I think I was stuck in this mindset that like I'm only willing to take good players generally speaking that's not changed a ton but you know what I mean you have to you have to account for volume you have to count for coaching

you know illogical coaching all that stuff so but yeah It's been really fun to learn from you about how to dominate fantasy. Yeah. And then I invite you to my home league and you dominate it. And I invite you to a dynasty league and you dominate it. And so, well, thank you for that. Yeah.

Typically you want good players. You know, this is, this is going to be like kind of a dynasty rookie focus pod and NFL draft pod. So good players are important. But yeah, sometimes, I mean, especially in DFS, you know, you could just, you know, grab a not good player who's getting a. a lot of targets and just, you know, racking the money. Yeah.

So, Danny, the first question I'm going to ask you is the same question I've been asking a lot of my recent guests. And that's, how's your ball situation? My ball situation? Because if your hair down there, if your hair down there is getting a bit burly, you should give our folks over at Manscape to call. That's because support for fantasy points is brought to you. by Manscaped.

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promo code FP 2021. You like that? You got me there. I was like, could you be more specific as to what you're wondering? That's been about the reaction I've been getting. I just had to spring that one on you. I'll say, I'll say this podcast is also brought to you by the draft guide that we have out. Greg Cassell, you know, a billion profiles, all of his comments on

the top players. Danny, I know you check that out. Yeah. You have any, any words there? Any guys, you know, really jump out to you when looking at over? I think, well, first of all, the draft guide is amazing. And I downloaded the Fantasy Points app the other day. And the functionality is really, really nice. Like, you can just scroll, you can scroll through each event. evaluation really easily. It's just like it's super simple and I like it a lot. So congrats on that and good job doing that and putting it together. Obviously, I've been a long time follower of Greg Kosell and basically have read and listen to basically everything that he puts out. So yeah, it's just the perfect situation to learn as much as you

can about these players. I was just telling you about Josh Palmer from Tennessee, kind of one of my favorite sleepers. And I was reading Greg's profile on him. He seemed to like him a bit too, like big, strong, physical receiver who was not as productive in in college as you like, but was a little bit of a product of the situation, just bad quarterback, play bad offense overall. So anyways, but yeah, definitely worth a read when you're looking at either just the draft for fun or I'm trying to find some sleepers in Dynasty. All right, Danny. Let's let's let's let's dive into my list of questions I have for you. So first off of that, I'm looking at. I'm looking at, at your big board. I couldn't help but notice you had Justin Field second and Zach Wilson's sixth.

So my counter argument would be, you're wrong. You're just wrong. That's bad and you're wrong. And you should feel bad. Zach Wilson's amazing. Justin Field stinks. Isn't that what everyone's saying? Danny Kelly, your rebuttal. My rebuttal would be, imagine fading a player who's built and runs like Cam Newton and has incredible accuracy, maybe probably the best accuracy of any quarterback in this class. Like imagine having that guy drop down your draft board. To me, he is, he's the clear number two behind Lawrence. For starters, number one, I think just because ball placement accuracy, huge arm,

you know, he has everything you look for as a passer. There's definitely, you know, these concerns that are going around about how he's a slow processor. he takes a lot of sacks. I think that there's some validity to that, but it's also a situation where the context, you have to look at the context of, you know, he's in an offense where they're asking him to do,

you know, they're asking their receivers, first of all, to do like these deeper option route type things, and he's waiting for those plays to come open. So he's doing what they're coaching him to do in some cases. Now, that's not every play and that's,

you know, not just a blanket excuse for him taking a lot of sacks. I think that's something that he's going to have to develop and work on, and that will be, be coached out, but I seen him escape pressure many times. In fact, I was just watching Josh Myers' center for Ohio State this morning. And it was like a good reason to go look and watch fields again. And to me, he's like, he's got that escape ability. He's got that improvisational skill. And the other thing is he really reminds me of Cam Newton, not necessarily

because of the size, but the way that guys bounce off of him in the in the pocket. Like he just, they try and sack him and they just slide off of him because he's just made out of cement. And so he reminds me a little bit of Newton in that sense, like the Ben Rotsberger style guys that can just sit in the pocket, you know, have guys bounce off them, keep plays alive, keep, you know, work out of structure, all that stuff. So, you know, I don't, I don't dislike Zach Wilson. We've had this long, like, we've had this long sort of inside joke where, uh, you, you pretend that I hate Zach Wilson. And then I try and, like, tell you I don't hate Zach Wilson. Um, but it's more like just I love. I love. Justin Fields. And I think Zach Wilson is also really good and also has an extremely high ceiling because his talent, talent as a pastor, his talent has an improviser, his talent, accuracy down the field, all that stuff. But to me, Justin Fields is just an awesome prospect. And the whole idea that he could slide down boards and be the fourth or fifth quarterback taken is just absurd to me. So I'll probably go to my grave with that. And we'll see what happens in this draft.

If it's all as a big giant smoke screening, actually it ends up on the 49er. So definitely excited to see how that all goes. Yeah, here's why that is. Here's why I give you so much grief. Like from a fantasy perspective, I think it's really easy, you know, the top quarterbacks in this class, it's Trevor Lawrence just, you know, when people say he's the best quarterback since John Elway with maybe Andrew Luck in between, it's just like, all right, done, easy. And then it's the Konami Code quarterback. So Justin Fields, I mean, 440 at 228 pounds. Like, yeah, are you kidding me? Like, game over. Easy QB2. Trey Lance QB3, Zach Wilson, QB4, Mac Jones, QB5.

I mean, if he goes to San Francisco, it's just like, what a stacked, awesome quarterback class this is. But from an NFL perspective, I just admit I don't know anything. I did a lot of work. I spent weeks and weeks looking at all the different data I could and measuring predictability, and none of it was worth anything. It was all worthless and just basically impossible. So I just gave up on that.

And what I do now is I just, you know, look at the people I trust most in this industry. And I make a, you know, basically I just take expert consensus. So when I do that, I see Lance Zero line, Greg Cassell, Daniel Jeremiah, like all these guys, Zach Wilson, QB2. And I see Danny Kelly QB3. So it just be so much easier for me to, you know, have everyone on a perfect consensus. I didn't go against the green. Yeah. But I mean, hey, hey, I'm with you.

This guy is fun as heck. But are you with me that like evaluating quarterbacks is really tough? Yeah. You know, it's it's funny because in, I do a draft guide for the ringer and I'm with you. I also read everybody else that I can find just to kind of like get as much knowledge as I can. Broad my knowledge. I read Dane Brugler. I read Lance Erling, Greg Kosell, try and pick up on, you know, the way that they watch the game because I think everybody could still learn, you know, no matter.

how much of an expert you think you are. Like, you can still learn, like, what things are important and how to project that going forward. But at the end of the day, like, honestly, landing spot is important. Coaching situation, sport system around a quarterback is all important. The outcome that we've seen, at least so far, with Josh Allen and Justin Herbert, has really helped me to have some humility in, like, what I think translates to the NFL. You know what I mean? it's just like there's so many variables and they're in it's so difficult to project like for instance

josh allen how could you have predicted that he would all of a sudden become very accurate as a pastor you know what i mean um or justin her Herbert who was the clear number three almost like a little bit of a joke like the punchline last year and then he was clearly the top quarterback you know in the rookie class this year he was awesome and so i think to me i've i've i think i have a much more open mind for the types of things that can translate and the development that players can make. So I try and keep that in mind. And when you're doing an evaluation, really the most you can do is, like you said, try to aggregate as much information as you can.

Like you have to take into account the accuracy. The opponent strength of schedule, the tools that he has, all that stuff. But at the end of the day, it's almost just like useless because it really does matter where they land. and in the situation that they're in and how they develop as players and as people. So, yeah, I'm kind of with you. I just, I try and do my best to take all those

pieces of information in, go with my gut, go with, and for me, a lot of it is just like fields when I was watching. Like, this guy's going to be a star. And I guess you just kind of have to trust all those things and take all those things and make your rankings and kind of like, you know, keep your fingers crossed.

Hopefully you don't look stupid later. I think one of the most important traits for a fantasy analyst or an NFL analyst is being able to incorporate nuance and complexity into your evaluation. And I think Greg's one of the best in the game at that. I think you do that extremely well. And I think that's all important. It's just like, hey, you know, this stuff is hard because it is hard. But at the same time, like, shout out to the NFL because like, you know, they love Josh Allen when everyone. else hated Josh Allen last year with Herbert.

I know, right? The Giants said he was their top quarterback in each of the past three draft classes. I listened to press conference with the dolphins. And they were like, yeah, you know, Herbert or two, you know, it was really close. We really like both of those guys. Like, dude, you picked that one guy. Like, you're like hyping up the other guy. And Chargers said the same thing.

You're like, yeah, no, they're both really just really great. But anyway, yeah, I mean, stack class for tools, trades, upside. Fields has it for days. Zach Wilson, incredible armed talent. you know, does Aaron Rogers type stuff every once in a while. People want to like make fun of that the, you know, like the throw that he made in his pro day and everyone was like, holy shit, look at that throw. And people want to make fun of it because it's a pro day.

And I've been in this group like pro days probably shouldn't matter. Like it, I know they do for NFL teams, pro days do matter. But to me that seems like bad process. Like why would him like, are you going to go? to and watch a guy play bump or a horse and like have that be part of your evaluation if you're like an NBA GM or something like it's ridiculous but all that said like that throw that last throw that he made where he like rolled to his left and then basically just like whipped it it was all upper body it was all like arm torts it looked exactly like Aaron Rogers honestly and so um

I was almost just like damn that was a really freaking nice throw it almost did like sort of changed my opinion a little bit in his favor because it was just like, damn, that was like a really, really nice throw. That's the kind of things that he can do, you know, on Sundays and, you know, when he's rolling out or when he sees, you know, a guy streaking down the field and open, like, he can hit him in stride, like, perfectly. So, yeah, it was a little bit funny, but I also did kind of affect me a little bit. So, so I got on the Zach Wilson high train really early. Like I think before he was a first round prospect or maybe really late first round, and I was hyping him up. I was gassing him up.

I'm like, dude, this guy's so fun to watch. Yeah. And I just like knew an NFL team would take him, uh, top five. And I got trash for it. And I was just like replying to each tweet, vault me, vault me, vault me. And it's because like I saw plays like that. And I just know like NFL teams are drooling all over themselves. Just like that is so sexy and, you know, exciting that you're, you're, you're, you're, you're,

you're going to fall in love with that, that upside, that trait, whatever that is. But it was, it's like, it's like, it's like, it felt like getting in on Bitcoin early. Now it's a little out of control. You're right. I admit to 60,000 enough. Right? Yeah. You, I know, you were telling me about him early in the process and you're like, dude,

go watch this guy. Go watch this guy. And then I eventually got around to it and I didn't like him as much as I think you wanted me to. And or at least I wasn't like on the train right. way that he's the clear-cut QB-2 and then he eventually did turn into the QB2. And in some people's minds, the QB1 over Lawrence, which is, you know, just, I think it speaks to his talent, his ability to throw off platform, all that stuff. I think Seth Galena from PFF wrote a really interesting article. I believe it was him, who he said basically like,

this quarterback class is just about styles, like vibes. And, excuse me, and who you like is basically just about vibes. Like if you like a guy like Wilson who carries it low and plays out of structure and throws like downfield and all that, like he's your guy. If you like Justin Fields, a big guy who can sit in the pocket and drop back and make, make plays, but also like pick up yards with his legs and runs a 4-4 at 235 pounds or whatever he is, then that's your thing. And, you know, if you like a really quick process or like Mac Jones, like if that's your thing, like it's just your vibes. I think that's actually so true because it, It really just is, it's like a Roershack test.

Whatever you like or whatever you're looking for in a quarterback is the guy you're going to like the most in this class. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. And just like on the point with his pro day, okay, Zach Wilson made amazing throws when facing literally zero pressure. That's what you put on tape every single game. But yeah, all right,

let's move on because I have a feeling like each question, we're just going to, you know, delve. Yeah. Yeah, delve season. All right. You have Devontas Smith, number five, overall, just behind Jamar Chase and Kyle Pitts. I want to know, where do you stand on the red flags? Where do you stand on the weight and BMI concerns? Yeah. And then just as far as pluses, like, what about his tape stood out to you the most?

So, yeah, I think to me, it's, I'm not ignoring the lack of precedent and the lack of, you know, there's just not a lot of. guys his size are his his his his frame that have panned out in the NFL but I'm also recognizing that there's not a lot of precedent of guys his talent level and his skill level that have been his size and played in the NFL so there's basically like two or three guys that have taken in the first round that are his that that skinny essentially and so um the track record is pretty spotty and I don't know what we can read into it honestly it's like Marquis Brown and Ted Gin or the only other you know, sub sub 175 pound or whatever it is, guys that have been taken in the first round.

So I acknowledge that it is a concern. It's one of the biggest red flags about him. And, you know, maybe in five years we look back and, like, say, oh, we could have guessed that he'd probably miss, you know, half the games in his first four years or whatever because, you know, he's just skinny and all that. But at the same time, there's nothing on tape, really, that worries me a lot. I think he's so good at getting off the line.

He's so quick and slick in his route running, his footwork and his short area of quickness and all that stuff. That combination, it just, he doesn't have problems getting off the line of scrimmage. And I think I saw the stat, like, you know, this is a volume stat, but he, I think he led the NFL, or he led the college football and catches and touchdowns from press coverage. So it's not like he's struggling to, like, get off press coverage or anything like that. I think there are a few plays where you see him get pushed off his route a little bit. And that's something that, you know, he'll have to work at. And maybe that'll be a slight issue in the NFL.

But at the same time, like you can line up, line him up at Z, you know, have him off the line a little bit if you want to early on. And having him run routes where he's not necessarily facing like a big six foot two, you know, 205 pound corner or something like that in the NFL. And honestly, he hasn't really struggled with that in college either. He hasn't struggled with injuries in college. He was insanely productive. He's also in a similar way to Kyle Pitts is like a unicorn physically. Devante Smith is a unicorn.

He has like an incredibly huge wingspan and a huge catch radius. And he knows how to use that. Like he goes up and he's good at the catch point, even though he's skinny and, you know, he's not going to push anybody around. So the productiveness, the skill, just the, like the overall skill as a route runner his uh you know his ability he has been durable i don't know how to predict whether someone's going to be durable or not at the next level but he has been durable in the past and just the way the game is changing i think it it doesn't matter as much if you're

if you're that size just because they're legislating big hits out of the game um it's just not as common he's going to be able to go over the middle field and not get like his head taken off things like that um defenders are getting smaller gradually as the game spreads out. So all these like variables together, it makes me still very confident that he's going to be a very good receiver in the NFL. And I just think he's, he's a really good player. And we just don't see many guys like him. Yeah.

So to me, the BMI thing just is a concern just because the, yeah, the hit rates within that threshold are so egregiously bad. And the only wide receiver with a BMI equal to him or lesser to him who scored at least one fantasy point since 2000 was Todd Pinkston. Maybe Marvin Harrison, but my data didn't go back that far. I know he was skinny too. But yeah, so really concerning. And I have to do my post-proday adjustments for my rookie model. And I have Devontz Smith wide receiver too.

And I really just have to assign an arbitrary, you know, reduction to him. I don't know where to go with that. The other concern is he didn't run a single event at his pro day, which means, you know, it probably wasn't to be anything, you know, wowing you, something that could potentially hurt his draft stock. The other concerns like dynasty people have is, oh, well, he wasn't, he played for four years and four year wide receivers,

you know, typically bust. And the reason that is, is because, you know, they didn't get a draftable grade as a junior. So they went back to school and like, if you don't get a draftable grade as a junior, you're probably not that good, even if you have this amazing, you know,

senior season beating up on guys who are two years younger. But I don't think that applies at all to Devontas Smith, just because per sources, the GM committee had a consensus round two grade on him with plenty of teams who had round one grades per season. Yeah. I'm just flexing right now that I've sources. I love that.

And I was going to ask you that follow, because I was even talking about this on my podcast, the Ring of Fantasy Football Show, I was like, I think some teams would have liked him over some of, like, Ruggs or even Judy potentially. I think you should have. Yeah. I liked him way more. I had Ruggs as like my 13th wide receiver in the class, pre-Protay and then maybe wide receiver eight or seven.

And you just look at the numbers. Like, you look at the top yards per route run seasons by Alabama wide receivers of the last three years. You know, Henry Ruggs doesn't have a single season in the top eight. And like the top four is all Devanta and Judy. Well, actually Waddle was abused too. But yeah. Yeah. And then the other concern is late breakout age, but I don't know what your thresholds are in the industry.

You know, I'm talking to dynasty people. But by my age adjusted stuff, he was great. And like, people sleep on his 2019 season. I have that as the fourth best season by any wide receiver in this class. Chase, 2019 won. Devanta 2022 Elijah 2023

and then basically like a tie between like a bunch of Bateman seasons and Devontas 2019 but he was a beast by like all the stats that that matter to be my model I think yes I think so just real quick to like talk about all those

factors like no I I'm actually like a big believer in breakout age and you know all that stuff I I definitely look at it all but I also think it's one of those things where, you know, some people just say don't chase outliers and I get that and I, I, you know, if that's the way that you want to go back, I totally get that. I'm not like trying to convince people to be like, oh, fuck it, go for it. But I will say there's a lot of context needed when it comes to like Devante Smith in particular because, you know, the fact that he was in Alabama where Sabin doesn't really play

freshman ever. And when he did play, he caught like the game winning touchdown in the national title game. You know what I mean? Like he did pretty well in that play. So not that it's not, you know, not that that necessarily says, you know,

he would have done this all year if he had been playing. But I'm just saying like, there's that context. He was on a team with, you know, a bunch of future first rounders, um, at receiver and a second rounder at tight end.

You know, there's all this, there's, there's all these pieces of context that you have to add into the evaluation and it muddies the, it's just not a black and white situation with him in terms of like breakout age and, and everything like that we typically would look at with it with a prospect.

So to me, that's why I, like I just took him in the DFB invitational because I think at the end of the day, and I got him at like 11 or 12, you know what I mean? He fell a little bit. And this is a very sharp league. But at the end of the day,

to me that felt like a good, good value because, you know, all that context that we were talking about, I think he still has the potential to basically, be the outlier that we all think he could be. Yeah, context, nuance. Like I said, he's also only 12 days older than Waddle. And like, people give Waddle a breakout age score. And like, all right, he hit his career high as a, as a freshman. And like, then he, he played behind. He was a second

string wide receiver, both of his first two years. Like, what are you, what are you doing at that point? But, I mean, Waddle is an interesting guy to talk about, too, because, like, he did play behind, Jerry Judy. So people think he's an outside he could play outside. I think he's slot only. Like 99% of his production came in a slot. You know, he was, he was fourth en route's run

each of his first two seasons. And so like models are going to miss in a guy like this because the production really wasn't there. You could factor in, you know, potentially four top 15 pick wide receivers, all that stuff. But like the production really wasn't there. But the efficiency was absurd.

And like all the good efficiency staff like yards for a route run my favorite set depth adjusted yards for target then i'm not a tape guy but just like watching it out of tape oh my god this guy is so much fun so i want to know where your thoughts are waddle i love waddle and he he he's a slight tier below smith for me but and maybe it is because like i just don't see him play in all three positions necessarily um but he's he's really interesting because he's extremely fast obviously but he's also like a physical um playmaker at the ketched point he's he's very good after the catch like he's explosive after the catch turns into almost like a running back after the catch so imagine um you know guy with say michael hardman's speed

but like actually a really good football player kind of deal like that's like what we're dealing with here um i think hardman ended up being overdrafted and and you know he just hasn't developed yet but um i think that wattle is really really fast tracks ball well wins of the catch point and can get yards after the catch. So, but I do have like the same concerns as you. It's like he is an older prospect. And again, we have to like use the context. And he got injured in his last season.

He was actually outproducing Devante Smith in the first four games. He was like their number one guy through four games. So do you extrapolate that and say this was going to be his huge like Heisman trophy season or is it just like sort of a small sample size thing that you have to kind of consider as you're as you're thinking about drafting him. To me, it's still a Chase, Smith, and then Waddle, but I mean, I don't necessarily blame people for like in Waddle a little bit more. I think he's just really talented and it's going to be,

it's going to be really fun to see how he gets used in the NFL because I think he has, like, the speed and ability to get off the line to play outside. But like he said, most of his production was on the inside. Yeah, you know who's a, what you said to me via DM a few weeks ago. He's like, he's an unreal angle beater. You know who's also an unreal angle beater? Is super fast. Phenomenal

at the catch point, despite his size, electric after the catch. That's Tyree Hill. And that's who he's getting come to. I wonder, so I think in fantasy, like Devante, I think, has more PPR upside. Or am I just pigeonholing him into this, like, oh, elite

speedster, Deshawn Jackson-type efficiency production? It's so tough. I'm with you. I think, so like, I like DeVante Smith a little bit more. And maybe that's just because I think he can play outside. I think he can be a team's number one receiver. I don't really, I don't see the stylistic comp to Tyreek. But I would say I don't know if he's, I don't think he's quite as explosive or jittery in the short area as Tyree. Like nobody is. I mean, that's the thing is like everybody's been compared to Tyree. over the last four or five years and or however long three years and and Isabella God. Yeah. We fell for that by the way in one of our leagues for yeah to pull the pull the curtain back Scott and I share like we have two teams right now right or three I can't remember but two and we took I don't know where we took Isabella but that one's not working out for us but yeah I think it's one of those things where I don't want to comp him to Tyreek, and I don't think he is Tyreek, but he is also,

he stylistically is very similar in the sense that, like you said, they have a lot of attributes that are similar. I just don't think he's quite as explosive, but again, nobody is. All right. So I'm looking at your rankings right now. And you got Jamar Chase, wide receiver one, Tevanta Smith, Jaylon Wada, wide receiver three, and then it gets interesting. You got Rashad Bateman for Elijah.

Amor 5, Terrace Marshall, 6, Ron Dale Moore, 7, Cadarius, Tony, 8. Is that the order you think you'd take them in rookie drafts? Yes, I think I would. I think I might even take a couple other guys over Tony in Dynasty, in Fantasy. I think Tony is a very, he's a tough case because he's terrible analytically, right? right? Like he's a late breakout, old prospect. And then like on tape, on tape, he's a little bit worrisome to me too just because he,

he's just not polished as a route runner at all. And so it could take a little bit of time for him to develop. But I do think he's one of those players. And the reason I have him, where I do have him is he is a player that I think can be very dangerous in the right situation and, you know, get the ball in his hands. And he's incredible after the catch, like rare after the catch.

So I think that's, kind of like why I have him there, but he's also, I'm a little bit dubious about him as a, as a fantasy prospect. So I probably would take Diami Brown and Tyler Wallace over him. And, and I think I have been in, in rookie draft so far. But I think, like, in terms of just like, I'm not necessarily, these aren't like my fantasy ranks, but it kind of, it matches for the most part. But I think I would have Tony a little bit lower in fantasy ranks. So he definitely seems special on tape to me. I remember saying, I've never seen a guy move like that.

And I think you responded or one of my other, you know, good film buddies responded. You never seen a guy move like that. I've never seen a guy move like that. We're like, I said he must have like adamantium ace nails. I think Lance Beardine had a better, better line. He had Mr. Elastics. Yeah. Something like that.

We're just like the moves he made. We're like, he just cuts on a dime that is like knee bends and it's like an inch off the grass. and he just immediately goes the complete opposite direction and just like so fun man so fun so special you said analytically he stinks right and i think that might be true uh but the reason for that is okay he was a quarterback all throughout high school yeah they didn't play the position and in his first three years he wasn't a starter right he was kind of like wildcatish i think they had him listed as an athlete yeah yeah yeah utility whatever and so if i treated him like a juco prospect like hollywood brown i think he would rank you know super super high in my model i

actually have to i have to run that but that's interesting so i think the upsides i think the upsides there man like you know he only had one season as a starting wide receiver but he was awesome right yeah i'm with you i think you know and that's why i have him ranked where i have him is like you said he's a really fun player to watch he's really really explosive he's chaotic in every way he's chaotic because he's not necessarily where he needs to be at all times in the route. He kind of does freelancing and whatnot. I've also noticed he tends to be stumbling and falling almost all the time when he's running. He somehow manages to stay on his feet every time, but it's just a chaotic situation.

But that being said, I mean, the production last year was very impressive. He was, you know, along with pits, like a go-to guy in that offense. He was getting deep, like slot fades. they were giving him the ball, you know, on sweeps and things like that. And he was making people miss. So, yeah, I like him. I think, you know, the first time I liked him, the first time I watched him, I was like, this guy's awesome.

And then I think as I watched him more, I was like, okay, so I can see why there might be some concerns. But there's, like, you, I would say he's probably at this point, the consensus, wide receiver four, like among, you know, NFL draft analysts, you know, at least, I know, I think Dane and Lance both have him as the wide receiver four. So, you know, he's obviously very talented. I think he's probably going to be a first round pick. But if I'm betting on an outlier, I think this is where I land.

It's like if I'm betting on an outlier this year, it's Devante Smith and not Tony, if that makes any sense. And I don't know, I don't know if necessarily want to buy into both of those guys. So maybe that's just me protecting, you know, myself a little bit by not buying into like multiple outliers in the same season, if that makes sense. Yeah. So, I mean, the NFL. apparently loves him. All the talent evaluators love him. The dynasty community hates him. He's right now he's a high receiver 10. I have him eight just because like, you know, I'm, I'm not afraid to just to defer to the NFL.

And then we know draft capital is like one of the most predictive variables. Just like you have all this invested in a prospect. You want him to succeed. You need him to succeed. You don't want to look at. It's going to get the opportunities to develop. He's going to get second, third chances. If you take him in the first round, you have a plan for him too in theory. So that's like also a big bonus. Like if he goes in the fourth round, it's like, oh, we like him. Let's get him involved on special teams. If you take him in the first round, it's like, okay, this guy's a featured part of our offense. So I think that's why, especially with his case, like first round capitals can be big.

Leviscus Chanel is the player that keeps popping up in my mind, not to say they're very similar. But it's just in the sense that he had a lot of concerns coming out, but a lot of upside. He was sort of raw as a route runner. He was like vaguely positionless at certain points in his career. And so I loved him. I was really optimistic. And he had the draft capital. But where he landed was a with a lame duck head coach.

And I just knew a new regime was coming in. And once that new regime comes in, it's like, okay, the draft capital thing goes out the window. You don't care as much if he hits or bust because that's that other guy's problem now. And you have to think that the coach who drafted him is like, oh, I know exactly how to use him. I'm going to get him on these sweeps. I'm going to get him these manufactured touches. And with the new regime, like, who's to say that's going to happen? So I think that's something to keep in mind with Tony.

People don't really think about that too much. But like if it's, you know, like a rock solid head coach who has his job on lock, you know, that's going to be important to him, I think. Yeah, for sure. I'm with you. And I think if he does land in a good situation, I'll probably, my opinion of him, he'll He'll go up in like my ranks or whatever in terms of dynasty and rookie drafts. All right. So what's interesting to me about this wide receiver class is that there are a ton of undersized wide receivers.

Ron Dale Moore, super tiny, short. I mean, Tutu Atwell, Devontas Smith, super skinny. And then there's a ton of slot only wide receivers, at least like according to me. Jamar Chase outside, Devontas Smith, probably slot early in his career. I think he can play both. Waddle, people on the fence, Bateman outside, but then, you know, Elijah Moore's slot, Terrace Marshall probably outside, and that's why he's going to get drafted. Well, he was a slot guy in college, though, which is the interesting thing.

I think it's not like most of his routes were from the slot. That doesn't mean he can't play outside, but again, this is like where it gets a little bit muddy. But Ron Dale slot, Tony's slot, St. Brown's slot, Tylan Wallace, I think slot. Well, Thailand played outside, but I think there's some concerns that he had, like, one of the more major concerns, I guess, is his ability to, like, get off the line of scrimmage. You can get, like, held up a little bit and push around a little bit, just delayed off the line of scrimmage. And so maybe, I think some teams are maybe thinking, oh, he's a Z or a slot. And he's not big.

He's, like, sub 200 pounds. So I think with Thailand and Wallace, there's a little bit of concern. there too but he was primarily outside i believe in college so so my question for you is what the heck does this mean because i had a thread that like went pseudo viral last year where it was just like riffing on running backs don't matter it's just hashtag slot wide receivers don't matter and it's it clearly has become a devalued position in the nfell they're not paid anywhere near as much as outside wide receivers it's a fairly replaceable uh position i just i mean like look at what bill Belichick has done year after year with guys drafted, seventh round or completely undrafted,

you know, athleticism has like, is almost irrelevant in the slot or at least historically, like all these different factors. And then also, you know, so many talent evaluators say it's so tricky to evaluate a college slot wide receiver because there's no sticky nickel corners who press in college and there's just so much room to work and all these other things. So like, do we just treat that as a big red flag? Or is it just a just? just like, oh my God, you know, the Moors are incredible. You know, Waddle is incredible. Just, are we, or is the NFL going to be in desperate need of nipple cornerbacks in a few years?

Or do you think we're right to kind of like, you know, bump these guys down just a tidbit for for being slatter-only type? I think, yeah, I mean, that's a tough question because every situation is a little bit different. But, I mean, it is, I think it's more difficult, like you said, to play on the outside. to have a more complete skill set. And, you know, having a slot on the guy, it's like a more replaceable position. It's arguably easier to play because, like you said, they're just getting off the line easily. You don't have to get off press, generally speaking, and, you know, all that stuff.

But at the same time, like, there's teams, teams are primarily three receiver sets now. That's like the standard. Everybody's running three receivers out there. more receivers are getting involved in the offense, generally speaking, across the NFL. So like this with having three receivers as your standard formation for most teams, it gives these guys the opportunity to have a lot of production and have a lot of like a big role in the offense. And so from a PPR point of view, I don't know what your research said in terms of PPR, but it seems like these guys are actually in pretty good position to get a lot of looks because

they're sort of on those easy routes over the middle, like drop like, you know, not checkdowns necessarily, but get the ball out quickly, RPO's, things like that. It seems like these guys are still going to be big factors in fantasy. Yeah. So in my model, like I could have, you know, you know, dinged slot wide receiver types. And I chose not to. The reasoning for it would be, okay, the NFL has devalued this position. So lesser draft capital.

But I mean, I don't know. Like from a fantasy perspective, like there are a ton of hyperproductive. slots for fantasy where, you know, they're just racking up targets. And that's so valuable. And specifically two wide receivers in that class jumped out to me, Elijah Moore, slot only sure, but like amazing hands. He had the most yards from scrimmage per game of any college wide receiver since at least 2000. And I think maybe ever, maybe, maybe ever. And then his 2019 season was absurd. He had like 850 yards and the next closest wide receiver had like 190. and he was super young that season.

So I love this guy. He averaged 10.4 receptions per game last year. Like, is he not just a PPR cheat code? Yeah. And then the same thing could be said for Rondale Moore, who, I don't know, he had like 120 catches as a 19-year-old. And by career receptions per game, since 2000, only one wide receiver ranks ahead of him.

That's Devante Adams. Jeez. So that's sexy. cheat code? What are we saying, Danny? Yeah. So, I love both the Moors. I really love Elijah Moore. I think Ben Fennell on Twitter was pointing this out, and it was like one of the things that really like stuck out to me about him is he just catches everything so easily, like so naturally. He can he can be running on like a really like a sharp crossing route, like either a post

or like just a flat like overrout or whatever. And he doesn't. like have to gear down it doesn't even barely look like he's paying attention to the football it's just there he gets it and he keeps going he doesn't like change his speed he doesn't gear down he doesn't like fight the football he doesn't double clutch it it's just in his midst and then he's on the he's on his way and that's so important for you know for a slot receiver over the middle field because like you're in traffic you know the ball is coming at you a lot of times you're like coming back towards the quarterback in some cases and um i don't know if you've ever gone out and like try to catch a football when you're like running perpendicular to where

ball is going. It's like it's hard, man. Like it's not an easy, it's not like it's lofting up over the shoulder and just drifting like a feather into your hands. Like it's coming at you hard. And you have to have good hand eye coordination. You know, you have to have the ability to catch a ball in traffic. And so I don't know, he just like impressed me a lot with his hands and his, his focus and his ability to like just catch a ball and keep going and like not gear down. Very, very athletic. Very, um, you know, jittery in the short area. also used in the backfield as like a running back. Same with Ron Dale. And I think the question with Ron Dale Moore is like the size thing. He's very, very short. But I did, you know, there's,

there's plenty of instances on tape, at least what I saw where he was getting deep and he was running vertical route. So that's really exciting to me. And I guess the only reason I have Elijah Moore slightly higher is like the, the history of injury concerns. I guess the last two years we haven't really seen more play very much. Rondale Moore and, you know, I guess Elijah Moore, like you said, it was like stupidly productive last year. So I guess that like gave them a slight bump. But I like both of these guys.

And I think there's a place for both of them in the NFL just because, you know, every NFL team wants a guy who's explosive can pick up yards after the catch and is dependable catching the football and just like, you know, being one of those guys that the defense kind of has to know where you are at all times. Yeah, it's interesting. Actually, that's the reason why I think I had, or one of the reasons why I like Elijah more than Ron Dale at this point is because, you know, he led college football in deep receiving yards per game last year. And he ran a 43540. And so I think there's like, I think he can be that PPR cheat code. But I also think there's some Tyler Lockett in the early career, T.Y Hilton to his game. Whereas with Ron Dale Moore, like you did. see him have success running the go route and, you know, getting vertical. But only 13% of his career catches came 10 plus yards down the field. He was at 34%. He wanted to just talk a little bit about Ron Dale just because, like, I think he's so, so interesting where like he had the,

maybe the best age 19 season ever by any wide receiver and they dealt with injuries. And my comps for him. We talked about some of this, like a cryptonian Cole Beasley. If Secretariat was a Shetland Pony, you help me with that one. That's a good one. A smaller and less complete, but more athletic, Steve Smith, you know, West Welker potential from a fantasy perspective. If Secretariat was a Shetland Pony is like incredible. Well, you get, you get co-author credits on it. I think you said You said miniature horse, and I just made it more specific. You got that one. No, I think, yeah, Rondell Moore is a very interesting one.

He reminded me a little bit of Devo Samuel, but more explosive, where, you know, at least most of the time they were trying to like scheme up looks for him, right? Like screens, end arounds, quick game stuff behind line scrimmage or near the line of scrimmage and then letting him use his explosive athleticism to make things, you know, make big plays. and he is a rare athlete. And those are the kind of guys you want to bet on. You know, like he's just, he's an extremely,

extremely rare athlete. I heard he was dunking as a 5 foot seven high schooler, you know, that kind of athlete. He reminds me of Nate Robinson, but playing football. And so these are the kind of guys you want to bet on. I really hope that the hamstring issues

that he's had the last couple seasons aren't like a long-term thing. I don't think they, you know, not likely to be, but it's the one thing that's a little bit concerning. I mean, at the same time, this guy was probably told when he was 19 years old, you're going to be a first round pick. Like, I kind of don't think I'd really knock him too much for like, you know, taking it easy. Right.

Don't push it. Yeah. Yeah. So I don't know. I think he's a hard one to predict right now before we know his landing spot and his draft capital. Like I saw, I think I sent a tweet to you, Lance Zerlane said he's like in the third or fourth round range. I think he's maybe a little bit higher than that. We'll see where it goes in like second round.

But it's not looking right now, at least, that he's like he's going to be a first round pick. So this draft is just going to be weird, so we don't really know how anything is going to go. But if he lands on a team that like we were talking about with Tony, where he's going to be a featured weapon in the offense and someone that they really want to feature and make a big part of what they're doing,

then I love that. But if he falls a little bit, third round, fourth round, And then it starts to be a little bit worrisome where, you know, he's maybe just going to be like a slot guy or like a gadget player. But I think that would be a mistake if teams saw him that way because I think he can definitely be like a featured playmaker. Yeah, I think landing spot is key. You actually helped me with this. I mocked him to Green Bay. Yeah, that's a good one.

And part of the reasoning there was like, okay, the small catch radius is a big concern, but not really a big concern when you have the most accurate quarterback in football. of throwing a beautiful ball. Right. And then, you know, he's going to help take pressure off of Devante Adams. He's going to just, like, you know, rack up first downs. There's a smart coach there who I think can get him the manufacturer touches he needs. Yep. So I think that would be awesome for both NFL and fantasy.

We're running late on time. As, you know, I should have expected with you as the guest, you know, I can talk to you for like eight hours. One thing I wanted to say was, like, really did want to give you props for just being like the goat. player comps. Some of yours were Zach Wilson is Baker Mayfield mixed with Henry Rowengartner. Kyle Pitts is Darren Waller mixed with Michael Phelps. Devontas Smith is Apollo O'No mixed with a skinnier Calvin Ridley. Cadarius Tony is Nightcrawler mixed with Percy Harvin. Just a quick, funny aside.

I comped, when Buda Baker was coming out, I comped him to Tyrone Matthew mixed with the Nightcrawler. just because he like teleports to the ball, wherever the ball is. And then Tyra Matthew unfollowed me for that. That was my most treasured follow. He unfollowed me within a week of that. Oh, man. So,

so heartbroken. Was he just like, how dare you compare me to this peasant? Or what was it? Yeah, and what's funny is Jim Nagy had a tweet literally today that said, there are no player comps for Tyra Matthew. He's one of a kind.

And, like, Tyra Matthew is like, that's damn right stuff. And then Arizona, Arizona replaced him with Buda Baker. So it's like, hey. I mean, I think it's a pretty common. It's like not like a weird comp. It's pretty, it's pretty like spot on actually.

So I don't know, players are like the star players at least are a little bit like psychotic about, you know, thinking they're the best player to ever play. And that's probably why they're so good because they have that mindset. Yeah. But thank you. I appreciate that. Some of these are just like half joky, obviously with Henry Ron Gardner, rookie of the year. breaks his arm can throw 101 mile an hour gas and that's kind of like with Zach Wilson looks like he's 13 years old and you know can throw 50 yards like across his body um devante smith though paula one came

to me the other day because i always like was i have like this ongoing bit on twitter that's basically like describing how people run and devante smith runs to me like a short track speed skater he's just like he corners like on a dime and he's so smooth and it doesn't really look like he's even like he's like he's like doesn't look like he's making the effort he's like blowing past these like round one corners um so anyways i thought i thought of that one just because paulo he's also a local guy but olympic legend um and then yeah the the night crawler one's pretty self-explanatory tony just like he'll go into a pile of guys like three or four guys around him and all of a sudden like two seconds later he emerges from from the scrum is like scot-free

and just like going downfield. So that's a little bit, that was like where I got that one. All right. Last one, we can try and keep this somewhat, somewhat quick, but I just wanted to kind of walk through

the first few picks of the NFL draft and just get your thoughts on like how you think things are going to play out. Yeah. I think 101 is super easy. It's Trevor Lawrence, right? Yep. Done.

All right. Number two, everyone knows it's Zach Wilson. Yeah. Right. And so the three, is super interesting. It could be anything.

I want to know, like, so you would take fields, but what do you think they're going to do? This is so, this is impossible to answer for me because I have such contradicting thoughts on it. I think it's going to be Mac Jones. And I, and like, it's like 51% versus 49% that I think it's a smoke screen, like a very elaborate smoke screen. Like they're almost making it too obvious that they love Mac Jones. It's almost like too many people. are reporting that it's Mac Jones, it almost makes it unbelievable.

But at the end of the day, Adam Schaefter is reporting it. Like, am I going to be like Adam Schaefter doesn't know what he's talking about? You know what I mean? He's like the most plugged in guy who's very, very rarely incorrect on things like this. And he's saying it would shock him if it wasn't Mac Jones. So I don't know. The Chris Sims thing too. Like Kyle Shanahan literally has his initials attached on his body.

Yeah. And like what is Chris Sims benefit from spending two months, you know, standing for Mac Jones and explaining to everybody why Mac Jones is perfect for this situation and then have it be someone else, you know? If they really are good friends, it seems like it seems like you wouldn't be just taking one for Shanahan. Like, I don't know, maybe they are that good of friends. But like that seems like a big risk for Chris Sims to like basically go on limb and lie

and potentially hurt his reputation as an analyst, just to give Shanahan a smokescreen. I don't know. I don't know how far he'd go for that. But yeah, everything is pointing to Matt Jones. There's this really like nagging feeling in the back of my mind that's saying this is obviously a ruse. It's obviously a smokescreen.

And they're obviously going to take Justin Fields. But I don't know. I don't think that's actually correct. I think they're going to take Mac Jones. And what do you do for fantasy? Like imagine you're in a super flex rookie draft. like rank the quarterbacks like this is the ideal ideal situation. Justin Fields is, you know, let's say hypothetically sitting behind Matt Ryan for two years.

Trey Lance is Detroit, which is tanking. I don't know. And it's just like, what do you do? So if you're doing it before the draft, obviously, which is what a lot of our leagues do. I actually had the opportunity the other day to draft Mac Jones at like, I don't know, it was like 10 and I trade it back instead. and or 12 or 11. And I was just like, I don't know because number one, we don't know 100% that he's going to the 49ers.

I think best case scenario, he goes to 49ers. And then from there, if he did if he is a 49er, what's his ceiling in that offense? I would say it's like you look at Matt Ryan's MVP season. It's like this is the platonic ideal of what he could do. But year in and year out, is he going to do that? I don't think so. Even if he is, even if he does turn out to be like a really good.

good quarterback. They're still insanely run heavy. Um, you know, one of the more run heavy teams in the NFL. I don't know. I, so, so basically what I'm saying is I'm, I'm still not really ready to go on a limb and take Mack Jones. Um, I would rather risk it. You know, I, I, I like Justin Fields and, and Trey Lance still because both of those guys, there's like, uh, the Broncos are still out there. Um, the, the, Washington, or New England are like pretty not favorites necessarily, but like they're, they're rumor to both want to trade up

and maybe get a quarterback. And those, I think those would both be good landing spots. Like if Justin Fields end up in Washington, that's like Cam 2.0 in my mind. So that would be really interesting. And then if you ended up in Denver, then you got, you know,

you have Judy, Cortland Sutton, Fant, Albert O, a really good, like, offensive landing, landing spot there for him. and system and support system. So I think I'm still really high, even if Jones is number three pick. I mean, this may be like super obvious,

but I'm still way higher on Tray Lance and Justin Fields. Okay. That's good to know. I will just say, I don't know that I think that the 49ers are so run heavy by design, rather than by necessity. Right. Right.

And I think Lash and Han smart enough to know it's like a super, you know, past heavy league. And like, that's why they moved up to make this pick. And by the same token, it's like, uh,

if you look at the leaders, by yards per attempt over the past few seasons. Nick Mullins and Jimmy Garoppolo are both in like the top six. Right, right. I mean, you could you could have like a 0.4A dot and still average like six yards per attempts when you have the greatest yards after the catch monsters and in Debo, IU, kiddle. Yep.

That was good to know. Good to know. All right, real quick. For Falcons, do they take Hal Pitts where it's just Julio Ridley. pits and just like oh my god do they try down do they take quarterback what do you what do you what do you think they should do what do you think they do i think they should take kyle pitts well should is a very difficult question because there's a lot of variables here number one there's a new coaching staff a new gm they just redid matt ryan's contract and so he's basically you know more or less

stuck there for two years you could you could get away of doing one year but it'd be a huge cap hit and you'd have to eat like 40 million dollars or something, a dead cap. So in reality, they're probably going to have Matt Ryan for two more years. I think if you're a new coach and a new GM and you want to compete right away, you still have Julio in the waning years of his contract, I think you go get pits. I think that's what you do.

And then you compete right away. And you can worry about quarterback next year or the year after. There's always bridge quarterbacks out there, especially, it seems like more common now that you can find a bridge quarterback. and then go with that. Like, you're drafting, and I'm preaching to the choir here, but like a generational prospect at Tidend, a stud, and maybe one of the best, if not the best player,

non-quarterback player in this draft. So I think they should take pits. I think there's a pretty good chance they take pits. But they're also very much connected to quarterbacks, and now there's reports out here that they're listening to offers for number four. So they might trade back and it all be moot. but yeah, I think they should take pits. I would be excited to see if they took Justin Fields

because I think Fields would be a great fit in the Arthur Smith, like, offense, but it would suck to have to wait two years to see it. It would suck a lot. So I hope that doesn't happen. Yeah, I mean, I don't know how Arthur Smith passes on this guy. You know, former tight end coach in 2015, the Lady Walker was on pace for 100 catches or over 100 catches. And Kyle Pitts, yeah, I mean, listeners to this show know how madly in love I am with Kyle Pitts.

And like that seems like an ideal landing spot. Whereas like, you know, bangles, dolphins, lions aren't quite as sexy. No. What are the, all right. So let's say it goes Trevor, Zach, the Mac, Pitts. What do the Bengals do? This one's very difficult because I guess like the most obvious in, um, best fit, I guess, would be to go like Penn A Sewell and just fix that offensive line and all that.

But I mean, I definitely can see the argument and I like to picture this happening. Jamar Chase going there, reuniting with Burrow, his top pass catcher, have Chase and Higgins on the outside. Like you have this trio for the next four or five years. And that would be incredible for their offense. It would immediately make them, you know, one of the top tier, I think, skill position groups in the NFL in terms of, you have, Higgins, Boyd, and then Jamar Chase in that offense plus Mixin, that is an incredible skill position group, which we've seen like skill position groups can absolutely elevate a quarterback, just takes pressure off the quarterback. However, having a good offensive line also very, you know, correlated to quarterback play.

So I don't know where I land. You know, I think the fantasy mind in me really hopes to go chase and then just get like a tackle or guard. in the next round and like continue to build their offensive line that way. But I could also just see them easily going Sewell and, you know, having their offensive line kind of locked down for the next few years. Yeah, I'm with you. They did make some, I know, tackle signings. I think they are weaker at guard, which, you know, I really get that in round two or something.

All right. So let's say the take chase. I actually think that the chances are pretty good. That's where it's like pointing to me. Yeah. All right. So you reunite Chase with Burrow at 105. Do you reunite Tua with Devontas Smith at 106? Or do they have to just go Pene Soule? Or I wouldn't put it past them. I think they could flip this pick around. If this plays out exactly like this, I think we can see a team try, like the Patriots or the Broncos or the Bears try and trade it for a quarterback. And then they resell this pick at a profit from what they paid with the Eagles. What do you think they do and what do you think they should do? Yeah, I'm absolutely with you. I think they move back up to six because that is the catbird seat at that spot.

You know what I mean? It's like they see themselves having a lot of leverage there. And, you know, obviously with Deshaun Watson having all these lawsuits right now, he's maybe not tradable. But I think they also want to keep that, you know, as an eventual or a potential thing that they could do. They still have the power to go up and if they wanted to. And if, you know, things develop in the way that they can do this, they still maybe would be. in the Deshaun Watson trade market. So I think that's why they went back up to six is to give themselves the leverage to do a lot

of different things. They could either sit there and take a pick. They could trade back. Like you said, make a profit and make the Eagles look dumb for trading back so early. That's the easy in recent draft. Yeah. And then, or they can use that to, you know, maybe go after Watson or another quarterback on the open market or trade market or whatever.

And so I think that's why they did it. They just wanted to have that leverage. I think the other thing I think is interesting. It might not be Devante Smith. It might be Waddle. here. It feels like there's a lot of winds sort of going in the Waddell direction for whatever reason. I've seen a lot of, a lot of people connecting Waddle to them in this spot, which I think would be a mistake. But because, well, let me rephrase that. I think I like Devante Smith

more. I think he's a better player. But Waddle might actually be a better fit for what they have in their offense right now because they got the two big guys on the outside, Vante Parker, Preston Williams, not necessarily like those are guys long term there. But Jalen Waddle coming in and playing along side Parker. I mean, does a Will Fuller kind of play that role? And Will Fuller, yeah. Will Fuller is like an outside guy. So, you know, like having a guy that can come in and give them another dynamic speedster in the middle of the field, you got Fuller on the outside, you got DeWonter and Preston Williams on the outside.

You got like a sickie who's, you know, he's athletic, but he's not like a speedster. And so, like, I could see them seeing, seeing Waddle and be like, yeah, he could really make her offense dynamic. But I think either Devante Smith or Waddle makes sense because you're reuniting with Tua. This is the reunite, the re what is it? Yeah, reunion, sorry. I couldn't think of the word. Reunion party for Chase and Waddle or Smith. I think it's funny too because Smith and Waddle both threw Tua under the bus

where they were like, oh, Mac Jones better. It's like, people are like, they're going to hype up their guys so he gets drafted early done. I'm like, well, I mean, Miami's sitting there. And like that that might that might matter. Oh, risky. All right. Yeah. So last question.

Trevor Lawrence won, Zach Wilson two, Mac Jones three, Kyle Pitts four, Jamar Chase five. Dolphins trade down. Let's say Patriots trade up. Get Justin Fields. You guys are all dummies. He's the QV too. What the hell are you doing? We're going to have another Tom Brady S dynasty for forever.

So now we're looking at 107. We're looking at the dolphins. What do the dolphins do? Or the lions? Yeah, is that what I said? Yeah, the lions. Yeah, you said the dolphins, but the lions for sure. The lions at 107.

Do the Panthers, you know, actually get a quarterback? I think they didn't think they could get a quarterback. I think they thought quarterbacks would run early. So they went out and got Sam Darnold. Do they get a quarterback? Do they trade down? They're like, hey, we're three years away from being competitive. Let's just, you know, apply your draft capital.

Do they get Penny Sewell, who, who fell on this, this, this, this, mock we're doing. What should they do? What do you think they do?

Um, and that's their last question. Yeah, I think that they're, they're another team that's very hard to read because the lions, they trade for goff. Well, this whole like seven,

eight. So it's, it's the lions at seven, the Panthers at eight and then the Broncos at nine. I think that three sort of like team area is very interesting. The lions just got golf. So in, theory they probably won't take a quarter of them or was it just hey you know like this sort of

a brock osweiler move right they're willing to pay or the they're they're they're they're they're able to take you off his hand that take goff off your hands for whatever yeah um the lions yeah it wouldn't surprise me at all if they're like hell we're going to sit here and take tray lance you know or if if fields falls especially fields and so they're very hard to read I do think they could trade back because they're sort of in the same situation as the Falcons. New coach staff, new GM, new, you know, I think they're trying to lay the foundation there in the long term and get their guys. And some people subscribe to the theory that like you set the foundation before you bring in a quarterback before he's going to just be thrown to the wolves and all that. I could see that happening.

They could still take a quarterback here and sit him for a year or two. but I kind of see them leaning offensive line or defensive line just because of like the football guy Dan Campbell coming in there like wanting to bite off kneecaps like want to instill confidence or instill this culture of kick your ass type thing and like taking a quarterback necessarily doesn't it doesn't do anything for you right away especially if you're going to go with gau for the first year or two so I don't know I see them either trading back or you know they want to run heavy. So just like, put a Hog Mali up front, something like that. Exactly. So that's what I kind of see them doing. I think if Sewell's there,

they'll take Sewell. So or tradeback and pick up some more picks. But then that eight spot with the Panthers. I think they're also a tradeback spot. I think it's going to be Washington. And we have in this little mock scenario, we have New England coming up to Miami. I don't know if Miami is willing to trade with a division partner. So I think the 7, 8, 9 spot really would be where New England can come up and get fields. I think with the Lions or with Carolina or with, well, no, Denver, then could take a quarterback too. So I think 7-8 is that sweet spot for Washington and New England.

Would that not be the most Belichick thing ever where, like, the entire NFL misses on the clear QB2, according to the great Danny Kelly? And then, you know, falls into their lap and they're just dominant for forever. The NFL. Newton, and that was your comp. They have the offense for them ready. Dude, the NFL deserves what they get if Fields falls. That's all I'm saying.

They deserve whatever they get if Fields falls. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. And then Zach Wilson's a bus just like you thought, and the Jets are target for forever. Well, it's honestly, you know, new coaching staff, new GM, or not new GM, but like, new coaching staff, new culture, whatever. Like, I get it. But, like, the Jets are the Jets. And like, if they can't get out of this rut that they've been in for decades, you know, then that's not a great scenario for Zach Wilson.

We've been doing these pods on the ringer NFL show the last couple of weeks where we look at the history of top three picks and the overall top pick in the draft. And basically the hit rate on the top three picks, top three quarterbacks. So quarterbacks taken in the top five, for instance. The hit rate is really, really low over the last 20 years or 10 years. And a lot of that has to do with just it's really hard to evaluate quarterbacks. But a lot of it too, I think, is these quarterbacks are getting dropped into these terrible situations and being asked to elevate like a mess of a franchise. And even if you're a highly talented quarterback, sometimes it's like impossible to do that. You end up looking bad.

Your career looks bad. We'll see kind of what happens with Darnold. But he was the same situation. Like, you know, get stuck with Jeremy Bates as a rookie who's not in the league. And then they go from that to Adam Gase, who is a long track record of like making his talented players look shitty, you know? And so like that's like situation matters a lot. I don't I think this can be different with the Jets and Zach Wilson this year. But he's not going into an ideal situation, it's clearly.

If you look at like Mahomes, he went to a team that had been 12 and 4 the previous season, got into the playoffs with Alex Smith at quarterback. and then he was able to, like, elevate that offense. He's obviously, like, freakishly talented, but he's in an amazing situation. You look at Lamar Jackson. They were and are, like, a perennial playoff team, very strong defense, like a very smart drafting team, consistently one of the smartest teams in the NFL.

And that's obviously helped him in his early career. So I think, you know, it almost helps if you fall a little bit, honestly. it's like if you go to a good team, it's your, I think your odds of becoming a successful quarterback in the NFL are just better because you have that support system. Russell Wilson went to the team with like literally maybe the greatest defense of all time for the first couple years of his year, of his career. So that helps. So I don't know.

I think what I'm saying is it's very difficult for these guys to go into a bad situation in Excel. So that's why I'm, you know, like, I'm not, I love Burrow, but like they got to get better around him or else we could end up being like, well, he didn't really pan out. You know, he looks solid as a rookie, but, you know, I think you're going to a team that has a pretty shitty roster. And they got to do some work to get better pretty quickly here or else he could kind of like just, you know, plateau. Danny, I love it. Yeah. This is one of the best, most fun podcasts I've ever done, expected no less from such a nice guy, such a smart guy.

Uh, so knowledgeable. Dude, thank you so much for coming on. Sorry for going over the, oh, no, you're good. Anything,

anything you want to plug right now? Yeah, so the ringer NFL draft guide, uh, it's at NFLdraft. The ringer. dot the ringer fantasy football show, which is a show I do once a week with Danny Hyfitz and Craig Horrobeck.

And then also the ringer NFL show, um, Danny Hyfitz and I are doing two draft-centric shows a week up until the draft. So check that out as well. Check it all out. It's all great. Refresh it every week. Listen to all those podcasts.

I'm going to be plugging manscape.com. How's your boss situation? Let's go. Thank you. Once again, Danny. And thanks for listening. And we'll see you guys next week. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast.

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