Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Rookie Model: Tight Ends

Episode Date: March 25, 2021

Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) and Wes Huber (@WesHuberNFL) dive into the incoming rookie TE class using Scott Barrett's statistical model. The guys recap Scott's recent article breaking down the rookie TE class, starting with consensus TE1 Kyle Pitts. Get 20% OFF Manscaped PLUS Free Shipping when you use promo code FP2021 at MANSCAPED.COM!  --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. And gentlemen, you are listening to the Fantasy Points podcast. I'll be your host today, Scott Barrett, joined by our go-to Devi Dynasty, film expert, Wes Huber. You guys all know him from

our podcast when we were talking DFS, wrote outstanding DFS content. Now he's sort of manning the helm in terms of Dynasty Devi here at Fantasy Points. Former PFF Grater. One of the best guys in the game when it comes to really analyzing

tape, diving into the X's and O's and especially going to help when it comes to, you know, rookie draft season, startup draft season, you know, where to take these rookies and why, how do you project to the next level? Make sure you purchase the Greg Cassell draft guide. You know, Wes is the best. Greg, I mean, you know, speaks for itself, you know, 30 plus years at NFL films. So make sure you purchase the draft guide to hear what Greg has to say and all these different prospects. And make sure you're also reading. If you're a subscriber, comes free as part of your subscription, Wes Huber's dynasty draft profiles. He's already,

you know, dug into a lot of the top names talking about what he likes in their film, what's their history, what their strengths and weaknesses are, how they translate to the next level from both a fantasy and real NFL perspective. Make sure you're checking all that out. So today we're going to be breaking down the top rookie tight ends. We're going to be talking about my phase one of my tight end model, which just came out today, maybe when you're listening to this yesterday. But basically my rookie rankings, it's part of this like multifaceted process where phase one, I just run everyone's college production and efficiency numbers into my super advanced mathematical model.

And it spits all the names out in order in a historical baseline telling me who the best prospects are in this class and why it's looking only at the most important, most predictive variables for each position. And you'll say, okay, Najee Harris is the top running back in this class, but he's also a top five running back prospects since 2014 comparable to Jonathan Taylor. Things like that. And it spits it out in order. And in phase two of the model, it incorporates height, weight, athletic measurables,

you know, 40-yard dash time, broad jump, things like that. Spark score not so great. It just looks at all positions and treats them all the same. But like what it takes to be hyper-athletic and successful as an offensive line is dramatically different than, you know, a slot-wide receiver or a running back. And so you want to say something, Wes? Oh, no, no, no. Oh, okay.

Sorry. I'm just looking at rankings. Okay. So this looks at it specifically by position telling you what the most important, most predictive, athletic measurables are at each position. And then phase three of the model, you know, looks at draft capital. And maybe even before that, we'll take a look at what Wes has to say, what Greg has to say, you know, things of that nature.

And then really, you know, my rankings got fine. But right now I'm in phase one of my process. The article's out. It's like 5,000 words. It's super in depth talking about where these guys rank historically, why I like them, their flaws, how I project them to the next level. And Wes has already written his articles up on a lot of these guys. So I'll balance my ideas off of him.

Again, we're talking about the top rookie tight ends in this class. Where do you rank? Why? specifically from a dynasty perspective. But first, a few words from our sponsors. Support for fantasy points is brought to you by Manscaped, who is the best in men's below-the-waist grooming. Manscaped offers precision-engineered tools for your family jewels,

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These ship me some stuff just the other day. And it sounds like being a manscaped engineer is like being a NASA engineer, Wes, what's your ball situation like? Do you need to take manscaped up on their offer here? Yeah, I would love to. I think my wife would enjoy the decision, you know, taking the leap. So absolutely. You know, it's kind of messed up that like, you know, your girlfriends are, you know,

buying expensive razors or they're either going for expensive Brazilian waxes, which, you know, has to be painful. I feel like the least you can do as your boyfriend, her boyfriend or husband is, you know, get this subscription from Manscaped, FP2021 at Manscape.com. It's the least you could do on here. You'd be helping out FantasyPoint.com, one of their, one of their, uh, advertisers. So definitely look into that. Appreciate the chance to talk about, talk about Harry Balls on a podcast. You'd love to see that.

And then let's hear from one more of our sponsors and then we'll get right into it. And we're back. So, Wes, we're breaking down the top rookie tight ends. You know where I stand. I know where you stand. The tight end one in this class. isn't just the tight-end one in this class.

He's arguably one of the best tight-end prospects to ever come out. And I am so, so excited to talk about him. Wes, why don't you introduce for us, Kyle Pitts, talk a little bit about his background, where he comes from. Because I know you as a Devy guy, you probably knew about him when he was a high school sophomore. So let's hear what you have to say on Kyle Pitts. Well, let me just start by saying,

I have a man crush on Kyle Pitts. I mean, like, my heart starts palpitating because this guy is one of the most talented, I mean, receivers. He's, I think, a little too big to be a wide receiver because he doesn't have Calvin Johnson's speed. But as far as, like, his athleticism, I think if he even played wide receiver in the NFL, he would do well enough to compete and definitely be, you know, a fantasy factor,

somebody that you would draft as long as he got enough volume. But, yeah, going back in his history, he started out at, let's see, what school was it? I don't have the name. He started out at a high school, and they didn't see him as a tight end. They wanted him to play quarterback. He said, no, I want to play. side in. That's where I think my future is. And they, they said, okay, show us your three-point stance. He got in his three-point stance, put his hand in the dirt, and, you know, they, you know,

they simulated the hike, and, and, you know, they watched his get off. No, you're not, you're not coordinated enough. And he was like, really? So I don't, I, I don't remember what position he played the rest of that season, but needless to say, he left that. school at the end of the season. He transferred over to Archbishop Wood, which is one of the top schools in that area. And yeah, they immediately put him at tied ends and helped him to develop. He also played some defensive in. He's got real nice lengths. So, you know, he was really effective there. But obviously, you know, his future is at tied in. So, you know, and I just wanted to interrupt you. And that's important too because, you know, I'm in a lot of tight end premium league.

Some people are talking about, well, you know, if he gets drafted by a team as a wide receiver, you know, that's going to hurt his value. And what you just said, you know, it seems clear he wants to play tight end, made a point to play tight end. We both think he's a tight end should be a tight end. Well, and, you know, and he is a wide receiver, you know, so, but he can play wide receiver as a tied-in. So I think, like I said, I think- Right. And teams are going to want him as a tight end too, just because they're a little bit cheaper when it comes to like franchise tags and a second contract and things like that. Exactly. I mean, you couldn't have said it any better. It will be cheaper. But at the same time, it'll allow him to play the position where he can make the biggest

mark in the game. So you called it, man. You said, I don't know the exact date, but way back in the day that, you know, this is a future Hall of Famer. And that's what he is. This kid is a future Hall of Famer. And there was even somebody recently saying that he has the best Hall of Fame potential in the class, you know, of course. Daniel Jeremiah stealing one of my tweets. Yeah, so a year after you made the statement. But, I mean, he's definitely, definitely, I mean, I call him a prototype. He's just, what he does on the field is as something you just don't see from a tied-in. And, you know, watching him develop in the couple of years,

he's been a tied-in, what, four years, five years? Let's see, did he red shirt? 16, 17. Yeah, so he read, he didn't, he did not red shirt. So, yeah, three years, five years as a tied-in, and look where he's at now. We're talking about him like he's, you know, the next coming of Gandhi. and it's just it's ridiculous what he does. And there's, I've never seen, I've been watching football my entire life.

I've been, I've been playing fantasy sports for over 30 years. I've never seen anybody play tied in the way Kyle Pitts does. And out of college now. I mean, of course in the NFL, we have traps Kelsey, you know, Darren Waller's not bad. And, you know, Tony Gonzalez. But, you know, it's funny, though, because last year we were saying similar things, or two years ago we were saying similar things about T.J. Hawkinson. But, you know, you need to realize that T.J. Hawkinson is a different type of player.

He's an inline tied in. He's not somebody that you line up out wide. You know, he's somebody that the reason everyone was so high on him coming out of Iowa was that because of his blocking. He was so good as a blocker, as an inline blocker attached to the O line that, you know, his receiving work was just a bonus on top of what he does. you know, of course, he's also one of the top five receiving tight-ins in the NFL right now. But Kyle Vitz is going to be in there. He's going to be in that group a lot sooner than you think. So that move tight-end versus inline tight-end distinction, I think is very important. You know, what Wes just said.

Yeah, T.J. Hawkinson valued as like a top 10 overall player, elite blocker. But in fantasy, you don't get fantasy points per successful block. You only earn fantasy points when you're running routes. And that's, I mean, Pits is a fine blocker. He's a willing blocker. But like his value to NFL teams is like, okay, this is an elite receiver, a guy who, you know, is an easy, maybe top three wide receiver in this class. And like, okay, you get him at the tight end position. You know, people talk about tight end being devalued in the NFL.

And that's only true when you look at the position as a whole. But if you look at the elite tight ends, if you look at. Rob Grontkowski, Travis Kelsey, George Kittle. I mean, how many Super Bowl appearances between them over the past, you know, eight years or whatever. It's really valuable. It's really important. Travis Kelsey, what he brings to that Kansas City offense is so hard to find, to replicate, to stop. But yeah, so here's what I wrote in my in my prospect model. So right off the bat, the model says that Pitts is the best tight-end prospect since at least 2014 and 26% better than the next closest tight-end, Evan Ingram.

He, you brought up my old tweet talking about him as being a Hall of Famer. In that tweet, I also said, I haven't felt this good about a prospect since Christian McCaffrey. And let me just, you know, remind folks at home. In 2015, when Christian McCaffrey was a sophomore, you know, I had a series of tweets. He was robbed of the Heisman because evaluators don't watch, you know, Stanford games because it's so late on the West Coast. He is a future Hall of Famer. He is the closest thing I've ever seen to Ledanyan Tomlinson.

And I got absolutely clowned on for that, absolutely clowned on by the Dynasty community. and Kyle Pitts is the first prospect I've liked as much as Christian McCaffrey. Love him. Absolutely love him. So talking about that distinction, and in fantasy football, I talk so much about Belkow or bust, how Belkow running backs are the most valuable asset in fantasy. Those are running backs who are featured in both the running game and the passing game played every single down,

just the highest upside, the most consistency, the highest floor, highest projection, just like so, so valuable. And there are tier above all the committee backs, you know, even like the best committee backs, like a Nick Chubb, who are far less consistent. And then with the quarterback position, you have the same thing. It's like there's all these amazing Konami code, which is hyper-mobile quarterbacks you run. And then like the statuess pocket passers, like Tom Brady was unrued. real last year, but he's also not anywhere close to a Kyler Murray or a Lamar Jackson. That

distinction is so important with running backs and quarterbacks. There needs to be a similar distinction with the tight ends, which I called the oligarch tight ends. There's basically the big three tight ends last year, Travis Kelsey, Darren Waller, George Kittle, who were putting up top 15 wide receiver numbers at the tight end position. And then everyone else, the tight end positions ruled by a wealthy elite with all other tight ends living well below the poverty line. It's okay, Travis Kelsey averaged 20.9 fantasy points per game. Darren Waller 17.4. Tight end 4, 12.2. That's just like a massive differential. Positional value, relative value, matters so much. Scarcity determines value and fantasy.

And the scarcity of an oligarch tight end, there's three of them and then everyone else stinks. is huge. Cal Pitts is a oligarch tight end. And so within the oligarch tight end, there's really two tiers. There's the move tight end archetype, which is like wide receiver masquerading as a tight end. That's Kelsey and Waller, who are not asked to block very often. They're not great blockers. They are running wide receiver routes on 50 to 60 percent of their snaps anyway. And then you have George Kittle and Rob Grunkowski who are lined up in line. They're blocking far more often. They're at a big disadvantage.

But, like, Kittle and Rob Grunkowski are probably the two greatest players to ever play the position if you include what they bring to the table as blockers. And then, of course, after the catch. So, like, you're not going to be as hyper-efficient as those guys. Like T.J. Hawkinson is at a huge disadvantage to a Kyle Pitts, who's going to be running wide receiver routes. is going to be used essentially as a wide receiver. And that's what we saw in college, 13.9 average depth of target in 2020,

96.3 yards per game, which is the best age-adjusted tight-end season since at least 2000, probably ever. And so you could think about pits like a Kelsey or Waller. Or you could think about him as like a round one caliber wide receiver who has tight end designation, like 15 fantasy points per game at tight end. goes way farther at wide receiver. So all this being said, acquire at all costs and tight end premium. It is Superflex, regular PPR or tight end premium.

All right, Trevor Lawrence, that's fine. But right after that, I mean, acquired all costs, Kyle Pitts. In a regular league, like, I could still, you know, I'll still consider a Pitts over pretty much anyone else. I mean, Jamar Chase is close. Naji Harris. I think that's the big three. decision you have to make. But Pitts is right there with me. Absolutely love this guy. Any additional

thoughts, Wes? You know, Etienne is not that far behind. Oh, Etienne, true, true, true. Yeah, yeah. But, you know, if you really, if you take a step back and look at all the guys we're talking about it, the tight-in position, you know, Kittle, you know, look at, look at what, Look at, you know, every guy that you mentioned, Waller, I mean, he was a former wide receiver who got in trouble with drugs and was out of the league for a couple of years. I mean, these aren't guys that were drafted in the first round and that came out of school. I mean, Kittle was a fifth rounder. Kelsey, he was another guy, got in trouble at Cincinnati. He wasn't somebody that was, that went into the draft process.

And everybody was like, oh, my goodness, this is a first round, you know, top 10 pick. I mean, you look at, you look at Hawkinson and you look at Pitts. I mean, we, it's, it's, it's, we've had a wealth here with Pitts and Hawkinson over the past couple of years of, you know, you know, maybe one of the best inline tight ends and maybe one of the best, one of the best jokers in, in history. And it's, it's, it's easy just to say, oh, yeah, you know, you know, DJ Hawkinson this and Kyle Pitts that. But I mean, we need to get excited about these guys. These guys are really good. And, but, you know, but at the same time, they're also, they're also guys who, who were just as good in college.

And that's, it takes so long for these tight ends to develop. They don't just, they don't just sprout overnight. And, you know, it's, it's, it's something to get excited about with Kyle Pitts. It's just like you were doing a rookie draft yesterday and we were texting about all your picks. And I was like, okay, so Pitts went, you know, it was a tight end super flex, premium, a Super Flex Tideon premium. And I'm thinking, okay, so Pitts went first pick, right? And you're like, no, he went with the fourth pick. And I'm like, are you kidding me?

Like, who passed on this guy? Right. I mean, I'm stunned that I don't care if it was Etienne or Najee Harris or Chase. Don't care. we're tied at one and a half points per reception and we're passing on pits no way no way so so i'm in three startup drafts right now uh or two startup drafts in that rookie draft we we missed out on pits we just didn't have a pick that early uh but in my two startups i've already acquired pits i think we're in round six and one of them i'm going like productive struggle but uh i have two picks i have my

homes and pits and it's just like i'm i'm sitting pretty even though it's round six i only have two guys just because I got Pitts who again, tight end premium, basically acquire at all costs. Just absolutely love this guy. Yeah, if you pass up on this guy, then you're going to be crying in, you know, at least at the longest a year.

But I think Pitts is going to immediately make an impact, especially with the draft capital. So immediately make an impact. What about Pitts and redraft? Because I think he should have, have a higher ADP than any rookie tight end ever, but at the same time, I mean, it's so statistically significant that rookie tight ends aren't great fantasy assets. But I think a Evan Ingram type rookie season is easily in the realm of possibilities for Pitts, you know, athletically similar,

usage similar, where they're viewed as sort of like a wide receiver masquerading as a tight end. What do you think you'd take him in redraft? Yeah, I mean, so like you look at Hawkinson, and that's what people may compare him to. They may say, like, well, you know, look at Hawkinson's rookie year. He had that big breakout first game, and then he just disappeared. But you've got to understand the role he played on the Lions was a lot different than what his, what Pitts' team is going to want from him. The Lions, they didn't involve him as much in the offense because his blocking.

He was struggling with his blocking. It took him some some, some, some, time to, you know, catch up with the speed of the game. And with Pitts, it's not going to be like that. We do want to see him block. We do want to see him in that role because, you know, obviously, we want him to be on the field, on play action, on RPAs, run pass options. But at the same time, Pitts is going to be drafted as, you know, for what he does as a receiver, what he does in the passing game. And I, yeah, I mean, if you're, wherever you're drafting Chase, wherever you're You're drafting, I mean, I don't think Devante Smith is going to have an immediate impact,

but wherever you think you should be drafting Devante Smith, Kyle Pitts should go before it. I mean, Kyle Pitts is right there with Chase. If Chase goes off the board, that should signal, just in redraft, though, obviously not a Superflex or tied in premium. But, yeah, Pitts should be the immediate thought if you see Chase go off the board. All right. So now let's get to the tight end two in this class. And I mean, Pitts is in a tier. And then there's like eight empty tiers below that. And then we're getting to the Titan two. It's just like no one touches Pitts. But. And it's sad because Friermuth is the real deal, man. I feel, I feel sad for him. All right. So we'll talk about Friermuth. So my model had Brevin Jordan and Friermuth basically tied. Jordan edged out Friermuth by 0.4% in my model, which doesn't account for athleticism. So, like, I wouldn't be shocked if Brevin Jordan edges them out a little bit more after their respective pro days.

But I agree with you that Friermouth should be the number two titan in this class. So you want to give a little bit of background on Friermouth? Well, first of all, as far as like, you know, we always hear about the twitchiness. and, you know, and that's what really, you know, can set up a first-round athlete apart from the rest of the class. And with Pitts, we have it, obviously. With Friar Meath, we have it. He's that type of athlete. And the most impressive thing about it is that he showed that type of twitchiness when he was in high school and he really wasn't, he really wasn't a workout warrior.

He wasn't somebody that devoted a lot. He actually needed, he actually needed to spend some time in the gym, but he still had. that twitchiness on film. And yeah, so he, so the thing, think about it, he has, he comes from a long line of, of a football family, uh, you know, a lot of coaches in his family. So he, he understands the game. He knows how to, how to read coverages, things like that. That's, that's huge.

He also, his, his uncle is a, is a offensive line coach. So he, he knows how to block for the run. And that's another huge thing. So we were talking about Hawkinson, and that's very similar to Fryermute. He's, Friamuth is an inline tied in. But he's also, you can line him up in the slot. And he also played some out wide, did well against Ohio State on a lot of snaps out wide. But, you know, you almost don't want to, you don't want to detach him from the offensive line too much because you want that blocking.

Because he's probably the best blocking tied in in the class. the thing about it is, or at least in relation to his receiving ability. The thing about it is, though, is that he did have one down season, which was his 2019, as far as his blocking goes, but being able to come back this past year and play, he showed us that he was definitely up to the task. But, yeah, I mean, so he grew up rooting for Rob Garnkowski. obviously he's out of Massachusetts born in Newburyport. But, you know, he didn't call himself baby gronk, so don't think that.

His friends actually did. They, you know, when he started, and the thing is, is he didn't even make his, make his fame with football. He was a basketball star. So then, you know, which is a common trait you see in tight ends. You see that they'll, they're bigger bodied. So you see that they, they excel. Variables in my model is points per game as a basketball senior in high school. No, just kidding.

But yeah, there does seem to be there's a lot of, you know, tight ends who have found success in the NFL who were elite basketball players. Yeah, absolutely. And, I mean, of course, you go back to Antonio Gates. But I'm trying to think of his name. Who's the Colts tied end that I love, Scott? Moe Alley Cox. Yes, Moe Alley Cox. another guy played basketball, didn't even play football.

And then he was like, all right, I'm going to get football a shot. Now he's like, yeah, you know, seriously. I mean, I'm hoping the Colts feature him this year. He'd be a steal in redraft if they do. Well, they did get, they did get T.Y. Hilton back today. So, I mean, the targets are going to be spread out. But anyway, yeah, with Fryer Muth, I mean, I love the guy. Okay, so I have personal stock in the guy.

because this was before Kyle. Kyle Pitts had already, he did well, but he was already off the board. Somebody, one of my PFF buddies in a couple of my debby's snatched pits up. I didn't even have a chance to go after him. But I did get some stock in Fire Meath. And so, I mean, you know, but at the same time, you know, I wouldn't sit here and just speak so fondly of them if I didn't think baby Gronk was the real deal. And I do.

I mean, seriously. So the one thing about him that is a little weird is that he repeated a year in high school because he transferred. He wanted to go play for his uncle at a prep school, at a private school. And in order to do that, he had to sit out a year or he had to repeat his sophomore year. And when he did that, it actually made him to where he could have declared for the draft after his true sophomore season, which is something you rarely see. And so he's a little bit older. But as far as the tight-in position, it takes a while to develop, especially in line to, you know, to block these monster edges.

You've got to have some skill. You've got to be up with the speed. And, you know, and he's a really good player that is going to, I think he's going to get drafted higher than these experts project him. I think he's going to go at least in the second round. He's not going to be a first rounder, but at the top of the second round, I think somebody's going to go out and grab him because he's that type of impact player. And when you spend that type of capital on a guy, you're going to see that player play. And you're also going to see that player have an extended leash, which I don't think he's going to need.

But say he does struggle at first, he's going to have an extended leash to stay on the field. And, you know, like you said, the tied-in four average, what, 12 points? for game fantasy points per game i mean there's there's not much out there so i think friarmuth is is is going to be on the fast track to making the fantasy difference yeah that's a great point it's also probably worthwhile now to actually talk a little bit about what goes into this this this uh you know phase one of my model which you can kind of read as a production score um again it said he was tied with Brevin Jordan as essentially the second best tight end prospect in this class, but also essentially tied for being the seventh best tight end prospect over the past eight draft

classes. So like that's a fairly elite ranking overall. And then if I wanted to play around with the numbers, so a big variable for tight ends is final season raw receiving yards. It's final season raw receiving yards. And so as, as a big variable, as we will get into in a second. He, you know, missed a number of games with a fairly serious injury at this past season. So if I wanted to adjust those or pro rate those, I can get him to look like a fairly elite tight end prospect, top 10 over the past 20 seasons, basically. I mean, still behind Pitts, who's, you know, number one over the past 20 seasons, but I could do that. So yeah, four-star recruit coming out of high school. He ranked,

behind only KJ Hamler and receiving yards each of his first two seasons, dealt with poor quarterback play. But like everyone was excited about his 2020 season. Everyone was expecting a big blow-up monster year. And unfortunately, he had an undisclosed season-ending soldier injury. So he only played four games, but he smashed in those four games. He averaged 77.5 yards per game. It was an elite yardage market share. in terms of the games he actually played. And, you know, ideal size, like you said, he's probably the best run blocker in this class behind, you know,

Tommy Trembal, who doesn't have the receiving upside or at least didn't show it in college. He spent 51% of his routes lined up in the slot last season, so he definitely could be an in-line guy, but has, you know, potential as high potential as a receiver. He was the best contested catch guy in this class. He was a lead in the end zone. He forced a lot of missed tackles over the past two years. And, yeah, so I have him tight end too.

I think he's a pretty exciting, pretty exciting prospect. Yeah, no question. I would agree with you there. And, you know, I think, and there's going to, I think as we get closer to the draft, we're going to hear a lot of teams say, you know what? This team is really high on fire amuth and blah, blah, blah. And that's what's going to eventually result on somebody reaching out. Maybe they didn't, you know, even a team coming out of nowhere, somebody's going to grab this guy because of the potential that he has.

And, you know, you say he's a four star. And I said he came out of Massachusetts. I mean, you need to understand that that is rare. I mean, this is this guy came out of essentially. nowhere from a football perspective to, you know, to become a potential early second round pick. And, you know, and you say that, you know, a lot of people wanted to see a big 2020. And yeah, I was that guy. I was right there because, you know, obviously I put some stock into him.

But, you know, his decision to return in 2020 was exactly that. And you say he played around 50% of his snaps from the slot. And that was by design. So when he came back, there were a couple of things missing from his game. And one of them, he didn't do a lot of crossing route work. If you haven't read a lot of my articles, crossing routes are, to say that they're important for a tied-in position is like saying that receptions are important to a PPR format. You have to, you have to be able to excel on crossing routes because tight-ins don't have the speed of wide receivers. So they need to, they need, so as the defense is reacting to the, to the wide receivers and, you know, those, those getoffs that they have from the line, the, the tight end streaking across the field.

If you have one that's got decent speed for his size and good hands, he can eat. I'm talking like Smorgasborg, eat that defense alive on crossing routes. And so that's why we see a lot of tight ends. that excel, well, I shouldn't say a lot of tight-ins, the tight-ins that we do see, Kelsey, Waller, George Kittle, these are guys that exploit defenses on crossing routes. And that's something that he came back and he did. He ran a lot of his slots or a lot of his routes from the slot. And he also finally showed us some crossing route work. And that's going to be super important to his future. All right, Wes, let's talk about my number three. I don't know if he is your number

three. I mean, number four is damn close anyway, but it's Brevin Jordan. We had some similar concerns with him. Again, he ranks essentially tied with Pat Fryermuth in my model, so like really high overall. But, you know, as a Devy guy, I'm sure you knew about him after his massive high school senior season. So why don't you talk a little bit about him? Yeah, he was the guy. I mean, there was no, well, Kyle Pitts wasn't far behind. I mean, if you look back, to the 2018 recruiting class. You had Brevin Jordan at the top. Then you had Kyle Pitts.

Then you had Pat Friar Muth. And you had Tommy Trembal, all from this draft. Plus, you had guys for future, you know, stick a pin on these guys. But they're going to be names to know. You had Jeremy Rucker, Ohio State, James Mitchell, Virginia Tech, Josh Wiley, somebody that you should make a note of. Cincinnati. Travis Kelsey's alma mater, this guy's talented.

Braden Galloway out of Clemson, Spencer Webb, Oregon, Trey McBride, Colorado State coming out of the group of five, somebody who's been a lot better than you may think. But yeah, with Brevin Jordan, I mean, he was the guy. I mean, across the board, everyone thought he was going to be the next thing. His dad, he played for the Atlanta, well, I'm sorry, he was drafted by the Atlanta Falcons back. It was in the ninth round back when they did that in the 1990 NFL

draft. He tore up his shoulder in the preseason. I think they probably gave him. There's very little information about him, but I think that they ended up giving him an injury buyout. It ended his career. You know, he just, the team just didn't have that much invested in him, but it just shows that he, he was good enough to get drafted. And then, so Brevin, his parents split up. He didn't know his dad very well. But anyway, he did find, like, he and his brother found like a bunch of memorabilia from his father in their mom's closet. And so, you know, they always wanted to be better than their dad. It kind of just drove them.

But, yeah, and it's three straight years at Bishop Gorman. He won three straight Nevada State Championships. He had a 43 and 2 overall record as a 16-year-old. He posted 1100 yards and 16 touchdowns. I mean, he was the next best thing at Tide End. And he played, so prior to high school, he played running back. his entire life in football. And you can see that in his game.

He's, I mean, I think, I think if you, as long as, as long as you understand the, as long as you understand the context, Jordan is probably the best tied in in this class with the ball in his hands, like as far as like working through contact and things like that. You can see that running back ability in his game. But he's a little raw as a receiver. But I'll let you go ahead and chime in on your thoughts. Yeah. So that's another key variable in the model is looking at, you know,

a tight end's ability once the ball is actually in his hands, the ability to generate tough yards after the catch. And I mean, you look at in the NFL, who were the top tight ends in yards after catch per reception? year after year, it's the same guys. It's George Kittle, it's Travis Kelsey, it's Darren Waller, it's Rob Grankowski. So it's so important. And that's something Brevin Jordan was elite at. And it mattered for my model.

Over the past two seasons, he led all tight ends and yards after the catch per reception, yards after first contact per reception, first down per target. So that was huge. you brought up him as like sort of, you know, running back-ish tight end. And like he has that body type, 6-3-245. That's very similar to Jono Smith and Gerald Everett, who not uncoincidentally are, we're elite at generating yards after the catch and yards after contact in college.

So since 2014, Everett ranked first, Johnny ranked second, Jordan ranked six. seventh and miss tackles force per touch by yards of the catch per reception. Everett ranked first, Jordan ranked third, John who ranked seventh. So like all three guys in the top seven in these stats. You know, really solid numbers, you know, 72 yards per game in 2020. You know, great yards for route run season in 2020. But let's talk about the concern.

So the concern for Brevin Jordan, we have the. exact same one, I think, is this isn't something my model looks at, but it is a concern for me, is that the bulk of his production came on really easy, low A-DOT throws, 52% of his career yards came on throws under 10 yards. Pitz was more than half that. Pits led his team in A-Dot, or nearly did. Brevin's was just 7.9. And another thing I look at that I know you look at West is, I look at what are the types of routes they're running. So Brevin Jordan's R squared correlation to the top tight ends in the NFL over the past 10 years and their route profile. So Brevin Jordan's route profile in comparison to the best tight ends is super low.

Just a 0.30 R squared correlation. Fryer Muth led the class 0.74. So dramatic difference. And so his route profile is kind of like a lesser Jonu Smith and Gerald Everett, who, by the way, I don't think are super enticing names, or at least I did just like, neither guy has ever reached 450 receiving yards in a single season. So I was really down on him after this. But then, I mean, you know, Jono Smith is now the third highest paid tight in the NFL. Gerald Everett's looking like he's going to be the guy in Seattle after free agency. And then you brought up another guy I totally forgotten about, but I saw.

on an interview, Brevin admitted he modeled his game after, who is a very similar height, weight to these guys, similar route profile, but had a much better best season in the NFL. So, so why don't you talk about his route profile and talk about your comp, which I'll just spoil the lead is Aaron Hernandez. Well, you know, it's, he does, he does have similar size, and we do see similar production as far as what they did in college with Johnny Smith and Gerald Everett. And I totally agree with you there. And also, you know, a little bit smaller, Aaron Hernandez, but somebody that Brevin Jordan has, you know, is kind of, as he was a kid, was somebody that he watched and try to, you know, mirror his game after. But, yeah, I mean,

so the thing about Jordan, like I said, he's a little bit raw as a receiver. you know, he was the kind of guy at Bishop Gorman that you just, you know, a lot of design designs, a lot of short stemmed routes and, you know, just let get the ball in his hands and let him, you know, just try to try to pile through the tackles and the tackle attempts. But, you know, when you move up a level, some of that, some of those missing, those gaps in your game, they start to stand out. And that's what we saw. I mean, he overall, he was good.

He did really well. I mean, no surprise, he was awesome with his flat work. I mean, over three yards per route run when he was, you know, working on short routes to the flat. But, you know, when you look at his go routes, which is kind of funny because his first season with Miami when I really don't think Manny Diaz really just knew what to do with this kid, he was so athletic, so talented. but they ended up throwing a lot of go routes to him. It just, he caught one, okay? So it went for a touchdown, but, you know, at the same time, it wasn't the greatest idea because his route running is just,

it's going to take time. And I saw in a couple interviews that he did where, you know, he understands that, that he has work to do. You know, obviously coming out of Nevada, he'd love to go play for the Raiders and learn behind Darren Waller. but he's not somebody that's going to go to the NFL and he's not going to just like immediately take off. You know, so in your dino drafts, you need to understand that you're going to be drafting this guy to sit on your bench for a little while, which is fine because I love Brevin Jordan's, his intangibles. He's got a lot of athletic skills.

And I think he's going to eventually be somebody. And the thing is, is like, his blocking may not be elite, but you don't have to be elite with your blocking. in college because, well, you know, some, obviously you play at Iowa, you get a little bit, you get a little bit better coaching as far as blocking technique goes or at some other schools. Stanford stands out. But you go to other schools and it's more about you just, you know, get the job done and then, you know, we'll worry about the, you know, trying to coach you later. Not as a knock on anybody, but it more is like they're worried more about advancing the program

than they are the player. but when you get to the, when you get to the pro level, you have a lot more individual attention. You have a lot more coaching that goes on. And that's when he'll take off as far as that goes. But he gets right in the face of guys, and he'll need to do that because there's some dirty NFL players, dirty NFL defenders out there that, you know, pinch and punch and grab and and scrap and, but he's not afraid of that. He gets right up in these guys' face.

And that's what you need from a block, from an inline tied in. So he's able to play inline. Another thing that is really, I mean, it's really rare in this class for him is he's actually a really good receiver out of the backfield. Because of his run blocking, he's able to pull it off. So he runs some decent routes. Of course, they're shorter stemmed. So, you know, that's something that we can just get used to. But, yeah, he's a really good receiver out of the backfield, probably the best in this class.

And then, you know, he can work in the slot. And that's probably where he's most comfortable as far as running his routes from. He's not somebody we're going to line up out wide. So we can scratch that off the list, at least at this point in his career. There was a significant drop off in his production. And his route profile is not complete. He was decent on crossing routes. So that's good, but it's a shorter stem.

His outwork wasn't that gray. That's going to be the second route that he's going to be asked to run. especially as a rookie. And then, you know, like I said, on Go Routes, he was lost. So here's the, here's the two other issues that I have with him. And then I'll let you take over. The first, he was, he was phenomenal against man coverage. Like he, from day one, he was good.

He understands, or he feels more comfortable, I should say, when he knows a defender is just focused on him. But when he's got to attack a zone, it took him until this past season to finally start showing some improvements when the middle of the field is open. But at the same time, after showing some improvements against cover three, which where the middle of the field is closed, this past season, he regressed. And that concerns me because he's going to see a lot of zone coverage in the NFL. So again, he's more of a developmental prospect. The second thing, he missed 17% of his games at Miami due to soft tissue injuries. And whenever I see that, it concerns me because it's not about being injury prone.

It's kind of about toughness and playing through bruises, deep bruises. I mean, the ones that hurt, but the ones that you know you're not going to suffer further injury if you play through it. He didn't play through those. He would sit out. And that's a concern, especially at Tide-in, because he's going to take a lot of, he's going to take a lot of wearing tear, you know,

so we want to, I mean, this guy's getting paid like a rock star, so we don't want to feel sorry for him. He needs to get in there and play, basically, right? So I want to see him on the field, especially if I'm going to draft him and use my draft capital on him. Yeah. So again, we had very similar concerns with Brevin Jordan where just looking at his average depth of target, his, his route tree, the question is, okay, he's elite at gaining tough yards out of the catch. Did he have this, you know, very simplistic, you know,

route profile because his team was just, all right, well, let's let him keep doing what he's good at will manufacture touches for him on quick passes with free access. It shouldn't be viewed as knock. Or did he fail to run NFL caliber routes and see consistent usage down the field? Because that's just not an area of his game in which he excels. And yeah, after reading Wes's write-up where he dug into the film, you know, I do agree. He's still little raw as a route runner. He is sort of a project as he transitions to the next level. He's, He's not someone you can expect to get a lot of production from in year one, year two, in the NFL.

Like I think you can with Fryermouth. And like I hope we can see with the next name on our list, who is really one of the most interesting prospects in this class. And that would be Hunter Long. You want to talk about what you know about Long's background before, I guess, coming to Boston College. or how he was viewed in 2019 and 2020? Well, you know, so he played, he played, I mean, a lot of these guys,

a lot of tight-ins will go to high schools, and they'll play for very run-heavy attacks because, you know, Boston College with A.J. Dylan was one of the most run-heavy and successfully run-heavy offenses of all time. Yeah, absolutely. And I think that's one of the reasons why he ended up getting offered there. So, but when he, when he was in high school at Exeter, he, so after he was only 205 pounds after his junior season, and he went to some camps. And I think he went to a Penn State camp. He went to another,

another Power Five program camp. And he was just kind of like looking around at the other guys. And, you know, of course, he's in, he's in a grouping with the other tied ends. He's like, okay, I'm not big enough to be FBS tied end. I'm too small. I mean, And I can completely understand where he's coming from. You stand next to these athletes today, and you just feel like a small little spec compared to him. And I live in Kentucky. So when I went to the university of Kentucky, I saw a lot of UK basketball players. And I was a bigger guy.

I'm 225 pounds when I was in college. But when I'm standing next to these basketball players, I'm like, oh, my gosh, this guy is a monster. I mean, I can't even imagine what size clothes he wears, you know. But it's the same with the NFL, and that's how Hunter Long must have felt, you know, at these camps. And so, but, you know, not surprisingly, he was not offered, a single offer. I'm talking group of five, Power 5, FCS. He didn't get a single scholarship offer, right? Because a lot of the work he did in high school was blocking.

But so, and then not long after that, he had, he went skiing and had a spleen accident. or a spleen injury that I think he had to like sit and he had to just like lay motionless for I don't know how many weeks and it was it was really severe but uh right after that though he really dedicated himself he started packing on weight got up to I think 235 and and then and then he was he was accepted into Deerfield Deerfield Academy for a postgraduate season and that's when Boston College took notice they saw he was up to 235 but here's the thing this kid is a lot faster than you think he is. I mean, you might, you might watch the tape. You might say, oh, yeah, blah, blah, blah. He's good.

But he runs a 458. Kids, 254 pounds. I mean, this kid is fast. I mean, that is, I mean, so you talk about Faramese. He only runs like a 4-7 something at around the same size. But who cares? I mean, Faramuth has got that twitchiness, that athleticism that you want to see, the route running is, is on an NFL level.

But as far as like, as far as like, uh, route profiles. Kyle Pitts doesn't have the route profile of coming along. Now, don't take that the wrong way. Kyle Pitts is the cream of this crop and by far, and just because Hunter Long's fast, doesn't mean that he's got the full package because I don't have the full athletic profile for him on him yet. Nobody does. We will at his pro day, but we know Pitts. He's the full package. But Hunter Long, man, he's, and he dominates crossing routes. I mean, dominates him like three what was he three something over his career so and then also if you think back um oh i'm sorry 5.65 yards per route run on crossing routes over his career outstanding the second most important

outs 3.3 run 3 1.3. 3 1. Why is this the most important and second most important route? Well because of the the stem distance we're talking about short stem routes and you know like I was saying. I mean, a four, five, eight, that's not going to get past any cornerback, right? If you're in a zone, if you're attacking a zone or, you know, say a safety drops down on you in coverage and man, you're not going to get away from anybody with a four, five, eight. But if you run those, if you're good, if you know how to, so if you know how to read the man coverage, you know when to make your cut, you know, you get right up on him and cut at the last second or if or if you're in a zone and you know the exact gaps the holes in that zone you can

use that athleticism to get into that zone quickly and and you don't have to you don't have to break off these 20 yard gains. So the the crossers like I said when you're when you're crossing behind the route run by these fast receivers that the defense just cannot adjust quick enough because they have to get they have to show respect to that receiver that is blazing down the field. You know, that receiver may not get, you know, as many targets what he's doing, though. And that's why these fast receivers get drafted so high. They open up routes for the underneath guys for the guys like Hunter Long. And when he comes in and he's he's this efficient on his on his NFL routes, NFL teams are going to be like, oh, man, that's instant offense for us.

We can get this guy. We can insert him in, you know, behind this guy, you know, this receiver that's going to be running this route on this side of the field, and we can use them on these short stem routes as a checkdown. So, I mean, there's a lot of checkdown quarterbacks in the NFL. But even the best cornerbacks, Patrick Mahomes, they're going to check down quite a bit. And that's what they're going to do. They're going to check down to their tied in on these short stem routes.

And so if you want the guys that score at the top, I mean, Darren Waller, I mean, he's obviously, he's a former receiver. He's got great athleticism. But you'd be surprised how. much work he does on short stem routes. That's what makes him such a monster as a tied end. And, you know, don't take it the wrong way. I don't think Hunter Long is going to be Travis Kelsey or Darren Waller.

He's definitely not Kyle Pitts. But at the same time, how long into your draft can you wait and draft? You could probably take Hunter Long with your seventh round rookie draft pick. I mean, your last pick. And he'll still be there and pick him up. And he will produce quicker than. that Brevin Jordan will. So, I mean, it depends on, but, you know, he doesn't have, I think Brevin Jordan has a slightly

longer, slightly higher ceiling long term than Hunter Long, but Hunter Long is a guy that is going to give you more immediate results. Yeah, so let's dig into where the model has him. Like I said, you know, over the past eight draft classes, Brevin Jordan and Friar Muth rank essentially tied for seven. Long isn't too far behind. He ranks 12. But if you're in a super flex rookie draft,

Hunter Long is being drafted like late round five where both of these guys are being drafted late round two. So that's just like a tremendous value there. Model really likes long. And a big reason why is so like one of the most important variables in the model is best season yards per route run average. And if you look at the best yards per route run seasons by a Power 5 tight end since 2016, number one is Kyle Pitts.

Number two is Hunter Long. Then you got Brevin Jordan 5, Mark Andrew 6, Evan Ingraham 7, Irv Smith, 8, really an elite 2019 season by a number of really important metrics. It was the second best yards per target season since 2015. It was the second best yards after the catch per reception season since 2015. All this was super good, but it was a fairly small sample. You saw 40 targets, which is good, but only 161 routes, which is actually like typically short of my usual cutout, cutoff.

That was half the amount of routes Kyle Pitts ran in 2019. And then 2020 was interesting because so long was hyper-efficient. in 2019. And then all the efficiency went away in 2020. But he saw immense amounts of volume. It was an elite target share, 24%, which is one of the best marks by a tight end since 2000. He, his yards per target average was cut in half,

but he saw 123% more targets, you know, really wide receiver 1 levels of, volume. And so what do I do I punish him for the drop off in efficiency or do I praise him for seeing, you know, wide receiver-esque levels of volume? And I'm going to push back on your praise of his athleticism. Just I don't know that that's an official number. We're going to have his pro day on the 26th. A lot of talent evaluators have been knocking him for for poor perceived athleticism. So definitely be on the lookout for that. But, you know, just according to my model and, like, the different ways I wanted to go about it, like how much I wanted to wait certain things,

if I wanted to drop my threshold to incorporate his, his yards per route run season in 2019, he could look elite, but really he was all over the place. And so are talent evaluators. Like, there's a lot of comparisons to Ertz, Zach Ertz, which is I think like the best comp is like a poor man, Zach Ertz, maybe not elite athleticism, better receiver than a blocker, you know, could be a target hog possession type. But there were also some comps to Austin Hooper, Jay Sternberger, and then some tight ends who are like even less sexy than Jay Sternberger. But yeah, Daniel Jeremiah said he could be a potential late. round pick, but a lot of other guys are down on him, Lance Airline, gave him a backup caliber grade. But, but yeah, so he's a great swing for the fences pick in rookie drafts, and especially at

his current ADP. I mean, just like even the baseline projection is well above what his current ADP is. Well, it's not, I'm not going to take credit for the 40 time, man. It's, it's a, it's a verified 40 time from 24-7 sports. So, you know, which they do their, currently in charge of athletic high school athletic combines. So if they say it's, if they say it's legit, but, you know, of course we're talking about pre-college timing. So, you know, anything could change from then until now. And one of the things that I want to see from along is I wanted to land in a certain spot like with John Smith leaving Tennessee. I would love to see him land there since their play action heavy.

And he was he was just outstanding with play action. 3.48 yards per route run scored two thirds of his touchdowns on a third of his routes. And that's also something that Friar Amith does very well. They're probably the two best there. And so I would love to see him go to somebody like Tennessee. but, you know, I mean, if you were to go to, say, I don't know, Kansas City or something, he probably wouldn't, he'd probably be similar to the backups that they have.

You know, he's not going to, not somebody that's going to force his way into the lineup. But, you know, when you, the drop off after Hunter Long, though, in the class, well, to me, it's after Reverend Jordan because, you know, I want to see some production in, you know, at least by year two. I don't see Brother Jordan doing all that much. So, you know, he's fourth for me. But the drop off after those four guys is pretty severe. So, you know, we're going to see some guys that will get drafted based off the potential and things like that. But, you know, we'll see how it goes.

But, you know, just to kind of put it in perspective, I was doing, I was looking at the 2020 high school prospects. And, you know, you got your guy that you love Quinn Ewers at Ohio State out of South Lake Carroll. Then we got Malik Murphy and Tenet out of Texas. And then looking at the running backs, Emmanuel Henderson. I mean, this guy is going to be a beast for Alabama. We got Trevor Etienne, who, you know, obviously Travis's little brother out of Jennings. He's unsigned right now. Relique Brown going to Oklahoma, another guy.

You know, one of the trends I'm seeing at running back, we're not seeing a lot of those 200. plus bound running backs coming out of high school these days. But then you go down to the wide receiver. We got a guy that I'm just, I just cannot wait to see what he does, Tal and Chetron. He's got Tron in his name. So we can already, you know, kind of speculate on the nicknames there. But Oklahoma, they've got the number one and two wide receivers, Chetron and Jordan Hudson.

And then, of course, another wide receiver going to Ohio State, Caleb Burton. But you get down to the tight ends and guess what? there's not a single tight end of massive note in the entire class. Now, okay, and that doesn't mean there's no tight ends out there. You got Eric Gilbert, who's the highest rated tight end to ever come out of high school. He went to LSU and then he decided, yeah, I don't see the fits. I'm going to transfer. He said, I'm going to go to Florida.

Then he's like, I may, maybe not. He doesn't like Florida. So now he's back in the transfer portal and he's like, next time you hear my name, I'll be signed at a school. So we'll see where that. And then you got my guy, Michael Mayer at Notre Dame, who unseated the guy we're going to probably talk about soon, pretty much made him worthless at Notre Dame.

Michael Mayer is a guy who's going to be in the NFL and he's going to have a lot of people talking about him. But man, there's a massive drop-off after, you know, know, maybe the top four or five guys, maybe six. Okay, so maybe seven or eight. And then there's no, as far as like projecting fantasy potential it tied in, I'm talking about all of college football, I wouldn't go any deeper than eight. And then it's like, it's just a wasteland of, yeah, this guy's good, that guy's good, but, you know, I'm not going to draft him in my Devy.

I'm not going to devote any. And then when we get to the rookie drafts, it's going to be like throwing a dart. I'm telling you that when you have guys that can actually produce at the tight-in position, guys like Pitts and Fryer Me and Hockinson, I mean, these are guys that you just can't underestimate their value, their worth to fantasy football. Yeah, just to recap what I was saying before, there are Belkow running backs and committee running backs.

There are Konami Code quarterbacks and then they're pocket passers. And there are oligarch tight ends and everyone else. And Kyle Pitts, oligarch tight end. Pat Fryermuth, not anywhere on the same level, but a higher tier tight end. Hunter Long, your tight end three, my tight end four. Revin Jordan, my tight end three, your tight end four. Interesting. Guys to keep in mind.

Then the tear dies. I have Kenny Yoboa next. But you could read the article, you know, where I'll dive into him, a few other guys. Tommy Trembal. Yeah, that's the guy I was mentioning. So read that article. Read all of Wes's articles. He's going to, you know, keep diving into all these incoming rookies.

phenomenal, phenomenal work by the Greg Kassell draft guide. And you'll hear from us in a few days once my running back article is up and we'll be doing the same thing again, breaking down maybe the top, top five guys, top five running backs. But yeah, thanks for tuning in. Trim your balls by some manscaped razors. And thanks for listening. Thanks for tuning in to this edition. of the Fantasy Points podcast.

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