Fantasy Football Daily - 2021 Rookie Model: Wide Receivers

Episode Date: April 15, 2021

Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) and Wes Huber (@WesHuberNFL) finish up Scott's rookie model series with a look at the wide receivers!  Get 20% OFF Manscaped PLUS Free Shipping when you use promo code FP2021 at MANSCAPED.COM! --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fantasy-points-podcast/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's time for the Fantasy Points podcast brought to you by FantasyPoints.com. Top level fantasy football and NFL betting analysis from every perspective and angle, from numbers to the film room with a single goal to help you score more fantasy points. Ladies and gentlemen, you are listening to the Fantasy Points podcast. I'm Scott Barrett, joined by Wes Huber. we are going to be continuing our study, our look at my three articles that came out, a pre-combine, pre-proday look at the top running backs, wide receivers, tight ends in this class, according to my super advanced model that looks at collegiate level of production and efficiency

by all of the most important, most predictive variables. I'm actually done with my post pro-day reviews, so we can actually talk a little bit about athleticism. I know West doesn't really agree with me on a lot of my findings, a lot of my correlations to various events, but I think we both agree wide receivers a little unique. And at least I strongly feel that athleticism for wide receivers is overrated. You know, collegiate level production is the thing to look at. But we're going to dive in in just one second before we do.

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Absolutely. Let's go. All right. So the guy at the top, I think, should come as no surprise, Jemar Chase. According to my pre-pro day model, he's the best wide receiver in this class and the best wide receiver prospect to come out since at least 2015, maybe a good distance beyond that, maybe since A.J. Green and Julio Jones. And then you factor in athleticism, 99 percentile sports score. And he's the 22nd most athletic wide receiver prospect since 2000, most athletic wide receiver prospect in this class. And oh, boy, is this guy special? 2019. 1,780 yards, sixth most by any power five wide receiver since 2000. 20 touchdowns. Fifth most by any power five wide receiver since at least 2000.

Far more productive than Justin Jefferson on fewer targets. Jefferson, a year older. And guess what? He just had the best rookie wide receiver season since the NFL merger. We know Justin Jefferson's good. How good can Jamar Chaseby. So one of the most important, one of the most predictive variables of my model is age-adjusted production matters immensely for wide receivers. Adam Harstad, football guy's writer, he said it best. Here's why breakout age matters. Age-adjusted production matters. Given normal human development, 19-year-old males are at a physical disadvantage compared to 21-year-old males. The ability to dominate despite operating at a handicap is indicative.

of a surplus of talent. For instance, compiling 1,000 receiving yards in a season where you literally played with one arm tied behind your back would also be a strong indicator of future NFL success. Jamar Chase is 2019 season. Second best age-adjusted wide receiver season since at least 2000. Number one wide receiver, Michael Crabtree, whose freshman year was just absolutely insane. Just no one's coming close to that. But Jamar Chase did.

Then on that list, you'll find Brandon Cooks, Larry Fitzgerald, Damari Cooper, Justin Blackman, and really a who's who of wide receiver names. Don't have the stat up right in front of me, but something like 12 of the top 18, 12 of the top 16, wide receivers by that metric posted at least one wide receiver one season in the NFL. And so wide receiver is specifically tough. It's a really tricky position to analyze, not just for fantasy, but just from the NFL. I mean, look at Bill Belichick's track record. Since 2015, there's been 23 wide receivers drafted in a round one.

Only two have made the Pro Bowl. Amari Cooper and Chase's LSU teammate Justin Jefferson. Why is that? Wes, I think you're going to have some great input here. But I've been compiling a Twitter thread of why that is, you know, taking from the best sources, NFL GMs, head coaches, Greg Kassell, Bill Belichick, Mike Mayock. And it's a number of factors. Wide receivers in college rarely ever face press coverage.

You don't see man coverage as often as I think they will in the pros. I know you might disagree with that, Wes, but slot wide receivers, they're especially difficult to evaluate. It's a lot easier to play in the slot in college, you know, generally against zone, against safeties, linebackers with plenty of room to work. Then in the pros, you know, against a stick. nickel cornerback who can press. And it is also important to sift through wide receiver's numbers to see how much of their

stats came on padded, manufactured production, you know, screens, quick, low a dot catches, things of that nature. All these concerns apply to every wide receiver in this class, but least so chase. Maybe the most efficient wide receiver against man coverage, against press coverage, not a lot of production on screens. 69% of his receiving yards came up outside. Jefferson was 100% slot in 2019. And just looking at all of this,

didn't even get into ridiculous numbers by yards after the catch, mistackles forced, depth-adjusted yards per target, deep targets, explosive plays, etc., etc. this guy looks like an insane elite, elite prospect. He faced off against some of the best quarterbacks college football had to offer C.J. Henderson, Cameron Danzler, Trevon Diggs, A.J. Terrell, and he crushed them. And they're all smashing in the NFL. There's one knock on Chase.

If you come out with one knock, it's okay, he didn't play the 2020 season. Smaller sample size to work with. But I don't want to knock him for that when, you know, NFL teams are like, hey, you're a top five pick. You don't have to play this year. Don't risk getting injured. You're going to be a top five pick regardless, top seven pick regardless. And yeah, man, just a special fun, fun talent. What are your thoughts there, West?

Do you have any disagreements whatsoever? Well, yeah, I mean, you mentioned man coverage. I don't think that's true at all. The amount of man coverage that college guys face, especially in the SEC, is just as much as they're going to face in the NFL. and most of the time you'll see a lot of the defenses in college. They'll try to mimic a lot of the defensive coordinators have the NFL experience at the big schools. And they try to mimic what they see in the NFL.

The other thing is I'm not really sure if that's entirely correct on the press coverage for Chase. I think that's probably the biggest knock for him. He didn't really, there were a lot of people that have been shouting about that. don't think it's a huge deal. I just think it's a lack of, it's inexperienced, but everything else is exactly right. I mean, he's, he's easily the most explosive wide receiver in this class and the, the divide between him and whoever you want to put it number two is, is pretty significant. And that means a lot for the wide, wide receiver position because of the way the NFL, the way the trend is going. I mean, if the numbers that, that I've been collecting over the last

couple of days. I'm just, my mind is blown looking at the percentage of shotgun snaps compared to 10 years ago, looking at the, the percent. And I'm talking in the NFL and the number of the spread personnel. I mean, it's just going up so high. So, and the other thing you said, though, one other thing, you mentioned, you mentioned low A dot receptions for all wide receivers. That's not true. So it's true for outside receivers, but not. slot receivers. That's one of their main responsibilities. If they're going to play in the slot, they're going to see a lot of receptions. It's actually the slot work to the flat. That is going to be their number one route. So that is something that that needs to be corrected

for sure there. But everything else that you said about, that you said about Chase. I mean, man, just got to be excited about him. If it wasn't for Kyle Pitts, I mean, I really don't think that, I mean, he's really not getting as much attention as he should, even though people are, you know, probably thinking he's, he's the number one pick in rookie drafts. People should be really excited about Chase, man. He is going to blow up in the NFL.

So I have a big, here's how I have it. Let's say it's tight end premium rookie draft. Kyle Pitts, non-superflex. Kyle Pitts, 101, Jamar Chase 102, Najee Harris, 103. And then the tier between Chase and the next wide receiver on the list is massive. Yeah. I don't even know who to put it to, to be honest with you, because I don't love Devante Smith.

I comp him to Marvin Jones Jr. And why is that? No, it's not because I think he sucks. it's more body type and also the way I think he's going to settle in the NFL. It's not going to be a quick adjustment. It's going to take him some time. I think he's got the talent. Absolutely going to be a starter for an NFL team.

But he is not going to blow up in the NFL. If he does, I will be the first one to be like, wow, guys, I was so wrong about this guy. You know, there's a reason that the numbers tell us what they do about low BMI. So, yeah. And then, okay, so if I, but if for me, right now it's going to be it's it's easily going to be the other alabama wide receiver that that i'm going to have there jaylon wattle i mean he got hurt uh and let me stop you yeah let me stop you we'll get to them but yeah for sure get it big tear drop that's the main takeaway jimar chase

drool inducing very very sexy prospect devanta smith is my number two in my pre pro day model and i'm still struggling with where to put him post-Pro Day. Pre-pro-day, he's in a tier with Jamar Shakes. He's a historically great prospect, the third best wide receiver prospect to come out since 2015 post-pro-day, then you see the big tier in between them. But let's just, before we get into the Pro-Day, wish he didn't participate in, by the way, the BMI, the weight. We'll get to that, Wes.

But let's just talk about statistical production. Jamar Chase won the Bolitnikoff Award. LSU Tigers won the National Championship on the back of a 200-plus-yard performance from Chase. Like I said, sixth-most-receiving yards since 2000, fifth-most-receiving touchdowns among Power 5 wide receivers. Not to be outdone, Devontas Smith, my goodness, first wide receiver to win the Heisman Trophy in nearly 30 years. Crimson Tide won the National Championship on the back of a 200-plus performance from Smith in just the first half. he caught the game-winning touchdown pass as a freshman in that year's national championship. Chase, sixth-most yards, fifth-most touchdowns.

Smith exceeded both marks. Second-most-receiving yards. Second-most-receiving touchdowns. And as impressive as his 2020 season was, really, one of the greatest wide receiver seasons in college football history, his 2019 season, apologies for my alarm going off, his 2019 season was probably the fourth best season by any wide receiver in this class. And people are, you know, trashing him for a late breakout age and things like that. His 2019 season was crazy.

Alabama, one of the greatest wide receiver cores in college football history, very likely four top 15 picks of the wide receiver position. Smith led the team in yards in touchdowns, nearly double rugs, nearly double waddle. And from an efficiency standpoint, his numbers were even more crazy. easy, even more impressive. My best stat, I think, depth adjusted yards per target over expectation. 2019 season was the best by any wide receiver in my database. Yards after the catch per reception. Top five, yards per route run, top six, yards after contact per reception, yards per target. Anything you want to look at, a truly elite elite 2019 season. And like we said, you know,

2020 season, one of the best ever. The knocks on him, let's let's talk the red, flags now. Let's talk the red flags. I mean, Guy almost never dropped the ball, nearly a perfect pass-a-rating win-target. I could go on and on for days about the pluses. The red flags, okay, they're glaring. The first one we hear quite a bit is, you know, from dynasty guys. He's, he's an older prospect, I guess. He's like 11 days older than Jalen Lottle. The late breakout age, not by my numbers. 2019 season was good enough. Age adjusted numbers, 2019, 2020 seasons, both look great. Don't have him as a late breakout age guy.

The other knock, okay, he wasn't an early declare for the draft, whatever. Per my sources, really love the fact that I have sources these days. The GM advisory committee as a junior gave him a second round grade with multiple teams in the first round, consensus round two, multiple teams in the first round. So the fact that he stayed all four years, which makes some dynasty guys nervous, service, it's irrelevant. The guys who stay four years and don't pan out in the NFL, those are guys who get like a day six grade as junior. So you get a round two grade. Now let's talk about the legitimate concern was the low weight, the low BMI, 170 pounds six foot one. That's not good.

Like who compares to that? Todd Pinkston and like no one else. The closest is like Deshawn Jackson who's still, you know, five pounds heavier, one or two points in BMI heavier. and guess what, Devonda Smith's not running anywhere near that 40. In fact, he didn't even participate in the pro day. My pre-combine model's biggest miss, all-time biggest miss, is Tyler Johnson. I dinged him severely for skipping out of the combine, for not running any events. And that seemed to have been the right move. Devonda Smith skipped all the events.

Why? We have to assume it was going to hurt his draft stop. And that's a red flag. The weight, the BMI is a red flag. Brett Kassel said he noticed the weight issue showing up on tape, getting physically pushed and squeezed to the sideline. And man, you know, it's the hit rate, not good. Wes, what do you do with that?

Because pre-prote, elite prospect, and then you factor those red flags in. I have to make an arbitrary adjustment. And I just don't really know what to do with that. There's no question. I don't like it. Okay, so his excuse is he had a finger injury. He did injure his finger against Ohio State.

We all know that. He put up, what, 200-some yards, three touchdowns in the first half. He left with a finger injury. I mean, game was, you know, safely out of hand. But, you know, he should have had time by now. Trey Serman was out there running after he separated his collarbone in the same game, right? You know, he didn't do a full workout, but he did enough, you know, I think if I'm if I'm being honest here, I think he's he's being a little bit of a of a wuss.

And being a being a Pansy. I don't think he's being a wuss. I think he's making a calculated decision. Okay. Let me explain. It's not the right wording. What I'm really trying to say is he's being a, he's being a, he knows that he deserves to be a first, you know, top 10 pick. And he doesn't feel like he needs to do anything.

to prove that after the season you just had, right? Well, look at how many people are trying to make it to the NFL. I just think that there should be a different type of attitude with guys. I don't care how good you are or, you know, what season you just had. I feel like if you have a finger injury, I expect you to be out here showing us your athleticism so that NFL teams can see what they're drafting. That's all I'm saying. I shouldn't say it as a put down towards him.

It's more of a put down towards that type of attitude. Does that make more sense? No, I think that does. Okay. The last thing I'll say about Devanta is, so Chase profiles as a true Alpha X outside wide receiver, Devonta Smith, I think, can play both from the slot and outside. second most career yards per route run from the slot in his class behind Chase,

second most outside behind Bateman. Given his size, he's probably going to be majority slot early in his career. I think that's nearly a lot. But we'll talk about why that matters in a second, because after these two wide receivers, I have basically a tie between two wide receivers. Could I just jump in here with Devonte real quick? So like you said, he didn't, he didn't test, right? So if we look at, if we look at Jamar Chase, he ran a 466 during his pre-college combine at the opening, right? Then we see him run a 4-3-4

at the NFL combine. So we're able to track the type of the type of athleticism that this kid is developing, you know, I mean, we're not expecting him to just blow the world away like like Rondell Moore did pre-college, right? But having numbers so that we can look at what he actually has, how he has developed athletically makes a big deal. Well, we can't do that with Devante. So we're looking at what he did at pre-college, and we're thinking, okay, that's what we have,

and that's how we're going to evaluate him. He ran a 4-4-9, right? You mentioned there's nobody that he's going to compare to BMI-Wise. And with a 4-4-9 at 170, 70 pounds at his height, it's not worth the risk. If you're drafting in fantasy, 100% of my drafts, I do not want Devante Smith unless he somehow falls to me in the second round. I'm not interested whatsoever.

Yeah, so I'll just say I do think I disagree there. I think late first, I will be comfortable taking him. I'd probably prefer to trade down. So maybe we're kind of on the same page. But I will say at the end of the day, he's probably going to be my wide receiver two or wide receiver three. And I like him a lot. I think he's a fun talent, you know, really elite talent evaluators comping him to Marvin Harrison, another skinny wide receiver. I know you don't like that, Wes, but I don't disagree with you.

You're right. That's not the best. I shouldn't say he's, I mean, because I have him at inside, I have him as my wide receiver three. I'm not saying he's my wide receiver eight or anything. I'm just saying I'm not picking him at the top of the draft is all I'm trying to say really. Okay. So the next wide receiver on my list is basically a tie. If Elijah Moore with like 0.03% above Bateman, which means if I want to adjust for the fact that Rashad Bateman suffered from the after effects of COVID-19 in his final season, give the boost to Rashad Bateman there.

If I want to, he lost like 10 pounds and it really impacted his play, according to him. If I want to boost Bateman for being an outside wide receiver, where Elijah Moore's slot only, that's another factor. But honestly, Elijah Moore, wide receiver 3, that stands out in this industry as like super high. I'm totally okay with that. I love Elijah Moore. 10th best wide receiver prospect to come out since 2015,

directly in between Justin Jefferson and Jerry Judy. Pro Day, very solid, very solid. You see, especially in the pro day comps, why he got comp to Steve Smith by his head coach at Old Miss, Lane Kiffin, why he got comp to Tyler Lockett by Lance Zeerline, why he's got an early career, T.Y. Hilton comps from some other talent evaluators. But, oh boy, it's amateur hour. I apologize for that.

So a lot more. I know, man, I know. So Elijah Moore, as an 18-year-old true freshman, nearly 400 yards, playing alongside D.K. METCAF and A.J. Brown. Metcalf missed some games, had 569 yards. But, I mean, the big takeaway there is D.K. Metcalf, 2.4 years older. A.J. Brown, 2.8 years older. And, you know, they're two of the best wide receivers in the NFL today.

And then in 2019, age 19 season. 37% yardage market share, exact same as Rashad Bateman, who's slightly older. The next closest receiver had just 23% of Elijah Moore's receiving yards, just ridiculous market share numbers there. And then 2020, oh my God, this is my favorite stat. And like, I haven't heard anyone talk about it. Elijah Moore averaged 157.1 yards from scrimmage per game in 2020. That's the most by any Power 5 wide receiver since 2000 and maybe ever.

The most yards from scrimmage per game of any Power 5 wide receiver, maybe ever in 2000, age adjusted off the charts. By yards per game, better than Chase, better than Devontas Smith, better than much better than Rashad Bateman. And so looking at the more advanced metrics in my model, so yards for route run, smashes it. Separation rate. Better than anyone, except for the two Alabama wide receivers, you're probably thinking of.

PFF grade, elite PFF grade. Concerns, only 10% of his career receiving yards came up when lines about why. Other concern, so slot wide receivers don't matter. That's a Twitter threat I've had. It's just clear that the NFL is devaluing slot wide receivers. You can look at it by average salary. You can look at it by draft. capital. And it's just a lot easier to manufacture production from the slot.

Easily replaceable position. I mean, look at what Bill Belichick has been able to do with, you know, undrafted round seven slot wide receivers over the years. So is that a concern? From an NFL perspective, I think it is. From a fantasy perspective, I don't think it is. And to me, Elijah Moore profiles as a true PPR cheat code. My goodness. never dropped a pass almost never dropped a pass in college last year he averaged 10.8 receptions per game oh my god a floor of 10.8 receptions and fantasy like not saying that's going to translate perfectly but that's awesome and then you also factor in that he ran a 4.35 40 yard dash he led all wide receivers in deep receiving yards per game last season second best in yards per deep target

then you see the Tyler Lockett early career Ty White Hilton upside from the slot. Just has that speed can also be an elite possession guy. And so from the fantasy perspective, I love this guy. I've drafted in every single basketball draft I've done where he's going typically undrafted, if not the last round. I think he's going to be an immediate year one contributor. And in every startup and rookie draft, I've gone far out of my way to make sure I acquire him in the early second round. Love me some Elijah Moore, West Huber. Don't break my heart here.

No, you know I love Elijah. We have been just two peas in a pod with Elijah Moore. This kid is lightning in a bottle and he is everything as advertised. Now, I do want to hit the brakes, though. There are a couple of things I want to go over real quick. First, I ran the numbers. The SEC coverage defense in 2020 was horrible. I'm talking to facing quarterbacks, wide receivers, tight ends, horrible, the worst in college football. I'm talking worse than group of five defense. They were bad, bad, bad, so bad. I mean, I don't know if it's related to COVID and players possibly not, you know, like you said,

with Bateman, he had some weight loss. I don't know if there was some effects from that. I had COVID twice. So I know it's not a great thing to have. But, you know, I'm not going to, I'm not going to kill you with that part. Because, I mean, I don't think we can really ding more or Devante or anybody else because they had a great year. They had a great year. They did what they did against the players that they did.

And we shouldn't go around and say, oh, you know, but you did that. No, they did great. Just same as Zach Smith. I mean, is Zach Wilson. But anyway, number two, I'm not a dynasty guy. I'm a Devy guy. And athleticism matters. I don't care what player it is, what position it is.

Well, not quarterback as much. Now, there are some numbers that I'm going to go over soon in some of my quarterback articles that are going to blow your mind as far as quarterback athleticism. But when I look at a player and his development and what he does, as far as production-wise, there are things. Say he's not the greatest athlete when he tested the combine five years later, that doesn't mean that he has not put in the work in the gym to become that type of athlete. And we just don't have those types of numbers, but we will soon.

Pretty soon with the Amazon Web Services and the GPS trackers, we're going to know which guys are running the fastest times. with the greatest velocities with their with their trackers. So pretty soon all of this is going to be laid to rest. So if you want a perfect example, go to TK. D.K. Metcath that you just mentioned. Look what he did in college. I mean, the guy did nothing, right?

I mean, it was like, okay, so we know he's got athleticism through the roof, but he's not doing anything. But then he goes to Seattle and he's like, wait a second. We're talking about a top five wide receiver here. I mean, you know, he's got a little bit of work to do. I mean, he's not perfect. But, I mean, we're talking this guy is Julio Jones athleticism. Number three, Elijah Moore is perfectly capable out wide.

Over 4.2 yards per route run out wide. I'd love to see his NFL team that drafts him move him out wide and play him out there because he just didn't get to do enough of it. In an Ole Miss offense, that was handicapped. It was, they had a problem. They brought him Matt Coral, who is, he's one of my, he's one of my, you know, upper guys as far as Debbie quarterbacks. But man, it's taking him some time. And he's so inconsistent.

Last year, he was benched. It was the previous regime. So, I mean, it wasn't Lane Kiffin, but he was benched for John Reese Plumley. Plumley came in. I mean, he rushed for over a thousand yards as an SEC quarterback, which is not something that you throw around. lightly. I mean, that's rare, but he didn't pass the ball. And still Elijah led the team in receiving, right? So this was his chance this year. And he, he, he, there's, he's got some great wide receivers on that roster, very athletic guys. But Elijah, I mean, when he did get opportunities

outside. So anyway, the last thing I want to say, and I'll let you, you know, get back into your article, which is great, by the way, is, is, you know, we, we talk about. the slot ride receivers and how they don't matter and we look at their salaries. And it's true. I can't argue any of that. But you know what? The NFL is using historical data against players when it comes to contract time because that's not true anymore. The way the NFL has adjusted to the air raid offenses in college, we are now looking at air raid offenses in the They won't call it that because they'll have to adjust their salary scale. They don't pay their slot guys.

They don't pay their tight ends because they go back and they average out seasons to where, oh, you know, look at history. You know, tight ends don't do as much, right? No, it's not in today's NFL. If you go back to the last five years, slot receivers and tight ends are very valuable. They're just not getting the credit they deserve. That's some great comments there. I will say I'm going to be having Dane Brugler on this podcast next week, and I am giddy and nervous for it.

But one of the questions I'm going to ask him, I'm not as optimistic on Elijah, as much as I love him, I do think he's slot only. Part of my reasoning there is Lane Kiffin. He said, this is a special, special talent. This is a round one slot wide receiver. He reminds me of Steve Smith.

But he also went out of his way to say, this is a round one slot wide receiver. I've had guys like Amari Cooper who played slot wide receiver in his position outside in the NFL, and he's calling him an outside wide receiver. He's calling Elijah Moore specifically a slot wide receiver. But you see a lot of that in that class. So one of this class, which I think is special, by the way, I think this is a very special class, but a unique one, a weird one, lots of red flags, Devontas weight,

Ron Delmore's height, a lot of slot-only types. I'm going to ask him, what does this mean for the NFL? are they going to devalue these guys, you know, upgrade, you know, Rashad Bateman, who's great on the outside, guys like that because of relative position scarcity, or is the NFL just going to be in desperate need of some sticky nickel cornerbacks in a few years? So that's just one of the things I'm asking. The next wide receiver on our list, again, basically tied with Elijah Moore is Rashad Bateman. Everyone loves Rashad Bateman, has him top five in this class, except for Lance Zeerline, who, by the way, is phenomenal, has him wide receivers. receiver 9. And that's kind of what I saw in my model. So I blended together two models. One is like a more basic age adjusted production. The other digs in deep with the advanced efficiency metrics. And the more basic one absolutely loved him. Wide receiver 3 in this class. The other one, wide receiver 8. So what does he have? What does he bring to the table from, you know, the age adjusted production? Off the charts, off the charge, age adjusted, yardage market share, touchdown market share.

What he did at Minnesota was obscene. One concern is Tyler Johnson outproduced him in both years. Okay, Tyler Johnson, 1.3 years older. But like I said, that was my pre-protein model's biggest miss. It's just all the best wide receivers you can think of. And then Tyler Johnson. Also a few skinny guys, which we'll talk about a little bit later. But then from the efficiency standpoint, he didn't stand out in anything, except for one of the most important things.

He led this class in yards for route run when lined up out wide. And this is where I want to pick your brain because I don't know if this is right or not. I ran the numbers last year and I didn't think it was good enough to incorporate in my analysis. And then I checked it again this year and it was so perfect. All the wide receivers who smashed last year were great. by this metric. All the ones who underperformed were bad by this metric. And that is just looking at route concentration and correlating that to the top fantasy wide receivers in the NFL. And the only wide receiver who had a lower correlation was 2-2-at-well, which seems really surprising. But that was

the same problem for Tyler Johnson, whose route correlation was slightly less. And I'm also concerned that maybe there's something missing. My pre-combine running back model is great, but it overrates Mike Leach RBs way too much for some reason. So I'm wondering if there's something, A, inherent to Minnesota's offense that could be making Bateman look a lot better than he is. And then two, if there is anything you notice from his route profile at Minnesota that you think might not correlate, because I know you've studied the same things I have. You know which routes correlate the best to NFL production, which are the most important,

what routes we see the most in college versus the NFL. The other thing is a bottom five drop rate. You can bring that up as well. So where are you out on these what to love and there's a lot? And these potential pseudo-nitpicky red flags. So I don't consider drops to be an issue at wide receiver. It's something that coaches need to deal with. and that we can't really draw too much attention to because there are things related to.

Okay, so I will say about Bateman. He reminds me a lot of, a lot of Devonte Smith. He's, I don't know the word I'm struggling, obviously, when I was trying to figure out the best way to describe Devonte. But he's very sensitive. And when he's not getting the type of attention that he thinks he deserves, he, you know, he gets upset. So, you know, so there's that. But as far as like what you said about Minnesota, there is one thing. And it's that the way the coaching staffs, it's been a couple there, have treated their players. It's been by seniority. And that's something you will see with some college teams. They won't play the best players. Well, they won't give the volume to their best players all the time. And we saw that with Tyler Johnson. See, I don't think Tyler Johnson was a big miss. by your, by your, you know, your systems you got going on.

I think, I think we need, we still need to see more out of him before we call him a hit. And, and to me, Bateman's better. Bateman's got the athleticism that I, that I don't feel like that Tyler Johnson had. We don't have the, you know, the measurements, but I still feel, I feel strongly that Bateman is, is, is, has better athleticism. So, I don't think there's an issue there. And, and we have perfect examples from Minnesota. If you look at Rodney Smith, he played the featured role there, even when Muhammad Ibrahim at running back was the deserving guy, the guy that was better metrically, but he didn't have the seniority that Rodney Smith has.

Now, Rodney Smith is good. He's in the NFL. He's playing for Carolina. But, you know, Ibrahim was the better runner. I think he would have gave the team the best opportunity to win. But, you know, that's the way college is. They don't like to bench their guys or move their guys down the death. are, you know, unless they're forced, you know. So, you know, but that's just the way it is.

As far as, as far as Bateman's route profile, unfortunately, I have not written up. I have not gone through those numbers. I've not looked at his film. I've not looked at Jalen Wiles film. So I'm not, I'm not the guy to go to yet. I want to, but, you know, I'm trying to get these quarterbacks out of the way, and they just take so much more time than the wide receivers. So honestly, I'm looking at the same numbers as you are with these guys. And you probably have a little more data since obviously you've run the numbers on their routes. Yeah. And I mean, if they're giving seniority to guys, it's probably a really good sign. He had 700 yards as a true freshman, 1,200 as a sophomore. And again, he had the worst quarterback play of any wide receiver we've mentioned so far. And it's

probably not particularly close. Some QB injuries. I will say that. But yeah, I agree. It wasn't the best. So again, these red flags might be a little nitpicky, but he was a trickier evaluation, just that the two models didn't really line up as closely as I expected, especially with that outside yards per route run number. Ron Dale Moore, again, another tie tied with Jalen Waddle, who I know you much higher on, but any production slash efficiency model is going to miss on a Jalen Waddell just because the production wasn't really there. And I think I encapsulated it better than any other model I've seen. And part of that is because of the two different models. And he's, Jalen Waddle smashed in the efficiency model. But of course, the age adjusted production,

you know, model didn't love him. And that's understandable. And you can make some easy excuses there. But let's let's start with Rondale Moore, who again, just like less than 0.1% above Waddle. Love Ron Dale Moore. He has some red flags too. We're going to get into those. But I mean, a former four-star recruit, true freshman, he turned, he caught 114-14 passes for 1258 yards, added 213 rushing yards and 21 carries.

He had turned 18, just two months prior to his first game in which he totaled nearly 200 yards from scrimmage. If I remember correctly, you actually graded that game for PFF. I did. Absolutely. I was blown away. And so his freshman season, elite by any metric you want to look at the most mistackles forced by any Power 5 wide receiver. In my database, 385 yards after contact, second most to Jamar Chase, 892 yards after the catch, second most to Devonda Smith 2020, an elite. PFF grade. And then he dealt with hamstring injuries over the next two seasons.

And I want to make an excuse for him just because I love him so much. I want to say, you know, NFL talent evaluators were in his year, when he was 18 years old saying, hey, you know, don't get hurt because you're around one lot. But that's just me trying to craft a narrative. But, you know, even in spite the injuries, when he was on the field, he smashed 10.3 catches per game, 106.5 receiving yards per game when he was healthy. absurd career yardage market share, absurd career receiving yards per game. I believe fifth most since 2011 with only Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, guys like that above him.

By career receptions per game, only Devante Adams ranks higher. And then Michael Crabtree ranks third just behind him. And so when I look at this guy, again, like Elijah Moore, I see a true PPR cheek. code. My comps for him were a kryptonian cold Beasley. If secretariat were a Shetland pony, a smaller and less complete, but more athletic, Steve Smith, you know, West Welker on steroids, I could go on and on. It's just this guy is, and like tape doesn't factor into my analysis at this level, but I loved his tape. I get the red flags. Or good buddy, Brett Whitefield said there's some Tavon Austin to him.

You know, the small catch radius is a major concern. That's why for the fantasy points mock draft, I have him going to Green Bay. Like, that just seems perfect. Okay, small catch radius, but you pair him up with the arguably most accurate quarterback and football. That's no longer a big concern. And I trust the offensive minds there to get him the manufactured touches he needs, you know, use him in creative ways, just rack up first downs.

More red flags. Only 13% of his career catches came on balls thrown 10 plus yards down the field. 83% of his career receiving yards came when lined up in a slot. And the height. I mean, who compares to him at that height? So what do we do here, West? Because I know you're not as high on him as I am. But, man, this is a special guy.

Well, I don't feel that's fair because, like you said, I graded his first game. I was blown away by this kid. And I went out and I drafted him in all my Debbie leagues. I was all in. Just I love me some Rondell Moore. And when I went to submit my ballot for the Bolitnikov, I even when he was written off after the weeks where he was actually on the ballot,

I was riding him into the ballot. I just, I thought he deserved it, even though, you know, he was injured late. the season. But over the rest of his career, though, he was, you say that, you know, creating the narrative of somebody was in his ear. I don't really care who was in his ear. What I cared about is he wasn't on the field, and he missed, I mean, I don't even want to go into just exactly how many games he missed. And, okay, so, you know, the one thing about comparing him to Beasley, not that I disagree. is that Beasley's never missed an NFL game in his career.

I mean, this guy is durable. That's not what you're going to get with Rondell Moore. You're going to get a guy that is going, yeah, he'll probably produce some great games for you, but he's not going to play the full season ever. I will be shocked if he plays a 16-game season during his career. And that for me is enough to say, I'm going to knock him down a little bit. Now, I haven't run the numbers on, you know, his route profile. his athleticism. Yeah, it was great, but it's pretty much the same that we got in college,

pre-college, I'm sorry. And, you know, he was playing for a team that was completely bereft of offensive talent. David Bell did come there a second year and pretty much just, you know. Yeah, Bryson Hopkins. What's that? Brison Hopkins? The tight end. Yeah, Hopkins didn't do much until his last year with Purdue. And at that point, both of those guys were doing all the work for that team because Rondell wasn't playing. I don't. I don't. I don't. I just, he's not a guy. Okay, it's different reasons than Percy Harbin.

Percy Harbin is not a guy that you ever got 16 games out of, for different reasons. But it was the same deal. You had to deal with like, you know, every week he was questionable. And every week you had to deal with it. It was just such a headache. You know, and so I just, I emptied out my Devy, my Devy devotion to Ron Dale Moore. I'm done with the guy. And, you know, that doesn't mean that I'm done with him in, you know, in rookie drafts.

If he goes, if he lands at a reasonable spot, I'll definitely take him and I'll be all over him in DFS when he's actually playing. But, yeah, I just, I'm not going to have any long-term investments in him because I'm telling you, he's going to miss a lot of time during his NFL career. All right. So tied with Ron Dale Moore, Jalen Waddle, 21st best wide receiver prospect to come out over the past seven draft classes. That's not factoring in his pro day, which, by the way, he didn't participate in. But I think that's understandable, you know, surgery, high ankle fracture, I believe, sprain plus fracture. And so it's understandable he didn't participate, but we know he's super athletic.

There is a video of him racing rugs in a 40-yard dash at Alabama, and it resulted in a tie. So he's actually someone who, despite getting a DNQ by sports score, actually boosted up in my rankings. But, I mean, even just looking at his raw production and efficiency, he's still ranked, you know, basically tied for fifth. And so, like I said, the more basic model didn't love him. And that's understandable. You know, he has, I guess, the early breakout age. He had 848 yards as a true freshman. Okay, but that was also his career high.

He did turn 20 years old halfway through that season. He's only 11 days younger than Devontas Smith. He ranked fourth in yards for route run that season, the next season. So he actually wasn't even really a starter for the team, which seems, you know, pretty crazy. But again, you got to give him some credit here like we're doing with Devontas Smith. I mean, he's going to be four top 15 wide receivers drafted from this offense. And then Irv Smith was there, too. Let's not forget him. 2020 season, you know, didn't do much in 2019. And then 2020 season, he was averaging more

yards per game than Devonda Smith before he got hurt. And so who knows if DeBontas Smith would have won the Heism, probably not. And, you know, Maybe Roddell is just way ahead of him by town evaluators if he just stayed healthy. But then you look at the efficiency metrics, and my goodness, yards per route run off the charts, 2020, 4.38 yards for route run, 2018, 3.58, 2019, 2.98. Henry Ruggs, his best season, 2.45. This guy just looks to me like a rich man's Henry Rugg, super rich man's. Henry Warren Buffett's Henry Ruggs. It looks like, you know, shades of Tyree Kill, which I really see

on tape and in some metrics that matter to me. Depth adjusted yards per target. That's my favorite stack. No one is better and no one comes close. Yards after the catch per reception. Elite, elite. Passer rating when targeted. Elite. So this is why he ranked wide receiver three in my efficiency model. The knock, again, you know, wasn't a starter, but I think he is slot only. And you see that from his numbers. Far majority of his production came from the slot. I think it's like 93%. And so I guess he's playing behind Jerry Judy. And that makes sense because you know how much everyone at fantasy points loves Jerry Judy. I love Jerry Judy. So, all right, you can make the excuse there. Maybe he's not Jerry Judy. But, but man, I mean,

I mean, super fast, like I said, like Tyreek Hill is, like Ruggs is. Elite deep threat. Ruggs wasn't at Alabama. Henry Ruggs is by every, you know, metric you want to look at there. Yards after the catch, elite. He's on tape. He's an elite angle beater. He is the best wide receiver in this class at contested catch rate. Sort of like Tarek Hill is phenomenal at that despite his size.

And so I just really like this guy. And yeah, it seems clear he's going to be drafted top three among the wide receivers in this class, maybe top two. Wes, what did you see on tape? Well, he's a different player than you're going to get from Ruggs. Rugs is the kind of guy. He's a burner. He's a guy that you target deep. We saw that how he was used incorrectly with the Raiders this past year.

I'm not even sold that they're going to be able to use him correctly this coming year. he's not the kind of guy you just you're going to toss little screens to and he's just going to he's going to cut across the field for you and reverse the defense he's he's not that type of guy he's a burner he's a guy that that that can outrun pretty much any you know what 99% of the the cornerbacks in the NFL but you're just not seeing that because derrick car doesn't have that type of an arm. But with Waddle, Waddle's not that kind of guy. Waddle's the kind of guy. He's got, if he tested, if he tested in his pro day, he would be at the top of the charts and vertical and broad jump, which will show you that the type of explosiveness he has. He's the

kind of guy. You put the ball in his hands. You throw a couple blockers his way. And he's going to He's going to reverse the field for you. He's a lot more in the mold of, you know, he's not Tyree Kill. Not saying that. Nobody's Tyree Kill. Never think that you can comp somebody to Tyree Kill. But he's a lot closer to a guy like Tyree Kill than Henry Ruggs ever was. But at the same time, I mean, it's tough because we don't have the athletic measurements to, you know, just to really define who he is.

But when you turn your ankle around backwards, I mean, you get a, you have some supporters on your side saying, hold on a second. This guy is, is, you know, he deserves it. So like you said, he had Judy. He's a slot guy only. And, you know, he could have, he could have transferred out and went to a program where he could have started right away and put up massive numbers. He stuck with this program. He played behind Judy, which, I mean, you don't see for why. very often, especially with Alabama, the leads that they build.

So he was playing fourth fiddle to an offense that didn't use a fourth very often. And then when he got his opportunity, he blew up and then he turned his ankle around. If we would have saw Waddle play the full season with Alabama this past year, he would have produced better numbers. And I think you kind of alluded to that. He would have produced better numbers in Devante Smith. Not that Devante Smith wouldn't have produced. He would have.

it would have been a monster year. And we probably wouldn't have seen as much production from Najee Harris. I'll be perfectly honest, just because of the amount of easy touchdowns they would have scored with those two cheat codes, like the reference you love to use, which I love. It is a cheat code with Alabama because of the way they recruit. And honestly, and I know that you're not ranking Waddle as your wide receiver six or anything. It's your model. And that's perfectly understandable. but I feel perfectly comfortable, at least saying he's the wide receiver two or three, and you do as well.

But I think I'm more leaning towards having him over Devante, and especially in the drafts that I'll be doing. And like, I'm not, you know, I'm not going to go after Devonta Smith as a top five pick. And I'm more comfortable with Elijah more than I am with Devonte, just because I've seen a more, complete route tree and and you know i don't have i can't say that about wattle but i watched every alabama game out man this kid is explosive he is every bit as explosive as is as as jemar chase so um you know he just doesn't have the size that chase does yeah so so again like uh the rugs cop like super super rich man's i just meant like both played in alabama have the speed rugs of course It's more of a slot guy, but also outproduced rugs on significantly fewer routes, fewer targets.

So again, like my model had rugs as the wide receiver 11 in the 2019 class pre-combine. And like I said, this guy's basically tied for five and, you know, is now getting this big boost just because we know how athletic he is. He didn't need to test at the pro day to show us that. But, yeah, shades of Tyree Kill. No one's Tyreek Hill, but like on a level that I think few others are. But help me out here with a fantasy comp. Rugs, let's say, okay, that doesn't work. Tyreek, let's say that doesn't work.

What are we looking at here? Because he has the wheels to be an elite deep threat. He's a surreal angle-beater, phenomenal after the catch. Could he be a PPR cheat code, or is he going to be a guy who doesn't see a lot of opportunities but smashes on those opportunities like a Deshaun Jackson maybe? I don't know, Wes, help me out here. If I, okay, so like I said, I haven't run the route numbers, and I would normally compare a route profile to a guy coming,

you know, to previous guys coming out of college with the athleticism that I think he has. And the guy that I would immediately jump to would be Tyler Lockett. But I think Waddle is actually going to be a little, a little more pro-ready. which you're always going to get with Alabama light receivers because they are, I mean, they're the cream of the crop coming out of high school. We're talking guys that have just dominated high school to the point where, you know,

we're talking just barely below five star type level. That's what you have with Jalen Lottle. That's how athletic he is. And, you know, the ankle injury does bother me because when he played against him, against Ohio State in the championship, he was not the same guy. He should not have been out there. They didn't even need him. But he wanted to show that, you know, he did heal enough to play in that game.

But yeah, the guy that I would probably, as far as what I've seen on film in the past and, you know, knowing what Lockett can do, that would be the guy I would compare him to. All right, West. For our last wide receiver, I'm just going to hand it off to you and you can pick which ever guy you most want to talk about, you think is the most interesting. If you want to read my analysis on Cadarius Tony, on Terrace Marshall, on Diana Brown, Amari Rogers, on Ross St. Brown, Tyler Wallace, read the article. And then read the follow-up, which should be out in a few dates. Wes, who, by the way, I love it, a Bolitnikov voter, why don't you tell us who your favorite wide receiver is? And right before you do, I just want to say, if you don't have a fantasy

point subscription, what the hell are you doing? We are a fifth, the price of, you know, some of our closest competitors and I don't know how much better. Clearly, West Huber, the great. How many hours do you think you've put into to film analysis, including your time writing all your articles? How much time do you think you spend per week since the season ended when we had you doing DFS content? Industry leading to you. over 100 hours a week. There's no question. Over. And, you know, it's it's kind of like, but, you know, at the same time, I'm, my wife's like, okay, how much longer until the draft? How much longer till the draft? Because, you know, she knows that that I'm devoted to just trying to get as much content

out until the draft as I can. And then I'm going to take a little time off. So, you know, don't expect as much after. But, and I appreciate you saying that, Scott. I mean, come on. You're one of the top guys in the industry. So I'm not going to compare myself to you. I've been doing this for a little over a year. You know, there's no comparison. But as far as as far as the wide receiver, I mean, it's a little unfair. Real quick, I just want to say, I just want to say 100 hours per week is insane.

But you really just see that in your work. If you're not reading West Huber's player profiles, you are way missing out. It's the best content I'm reading, including my own stuff. And it's just so good and just like such a valuable addition to the staff. I just want to say, Wes, I love you. I just love you. And you're the man putting out great work. So, so thanks again. Who is your, who do you want to talk about? What wide receiver? Well, you know, it's it's like you said, we want to look at production, not as much. You know, production is going to tell us who the best guys are. And I completely agree.

I don't care about athleticism without the production. I feel like production is, is, it's 50% of the formula at wide receiver or anywhere else. But, you know, of course, with quarterback, I'm going to, you know, I'm going to, I'm going to stop short there as far as the skill positions go. But, you know, I love some Amman's, Alman Rae, St. Brown. I think he's got some great talent. I do feel like Rondell Moore definitely needs to be in that discussion. I love Tamori and Terry.

honestly the guy that probably has moved up for me more than anybody other than Elijah Moore is Diami Brown I was worried that he was a more of a system guy but man his the the wingspan the the 77 inch wingspan at at six foot I mean we're talking crazy this is crazy stuff he's got a wider wing span by, I mean, just a wide margin over Jamar Chase. I mean, but at the same time, it's, it's still, he, he wouldn't be the guy that I would pick if I had to go with one guy we haven't discussed. Terris Marshall definitely first round athleticism. Plus, I mean, he, he produced behind Chase and Jefferson love him. I think, I did trade him away in a Devee league and it hurts me every time I mention it or I even think about it. But the guy that we got to go to

is Cadarius Tony. And he's not going to, he's not going to land high in your model. But oh my gosh, Cadarius Tony is, okay, so we went over some of his film and we were watching some guys with like four, five, four, six speed chasing him down from behind. I don't know who that guy was because the guy that went to the, that went to his pro. day, 4-4-1, and then 39-5-inch vertical, 136-inch broad jump, that's better than freaking chase. I'm blown away by the numbers. And what he did during his senior year is enough for us to say, okay, okay, so he was

hurt as a junior, right? He was a quarterback in high school, and we knew it was going to take him some time. But we saw the explosiveness as a young kid. one thing I will say he had like a little hitch to his run. I don't know if he had an injury early in his career, but it disappeared as a junior and as senior at Florida. But man, I mean, when Pitts went down, which we could talk literally 24 straight hours about Kyle Pitts,

just in awe of this guy. Like, how did this guy get so athletic without injuring himself is what I need to know? because it is a formula that every other athlete in the world needs to use. And guess what? He passed that down to Cadarius Tony because you look at his pre-college measurements and what he did at his pro day. I mean, we're talking 99th percentile improvements. Cadarius Tony is going to make an impact in the NFL,

and he is unguardable in man. you might be able to you know maybe he's trying to do a high step and you catch him from behind I don't know if he's that type of kid he's not the type of kid that drew attention to himself with the BB gun and he got caught with an assault rifle he's a great kid he really is

the assault rifle was legal by the way and the BB gun it was he was trying to protect himself he had somebody bullying him in school which something it wasn't something that he dealt with when he was younger. This is a great kid. He is not somebody that's going to have off-the-field concerns. Cadarius Tony has, he's the full package, just like Pitts.

I mean, not at Pitts' level, you know, wins above replacement at position, all that jazz. We're talking next level stuff. But, man, I love what I see, especially with his pro day. Man, you got to check that out. He is next level athlete. Yeah, so just looking at that pro day, he has the ninth best burst. score, just the broad plus vert, of any wide receiver since at least 2000 to participate in the combine. And then his 40-year dash time per NFL teams, per Dane Ruler, is 4.37. Like, you just don't

see those combinations. So an elite elite athlete. Oh, yeah. I was looking, I'm sorry, I was looking at Bateman who's right above him. Yep, you're right. Port 37. And so, like you said, my model's not going to hit on him. And my model didn't hit on him. But here's the thing. If I treated him like a Juko transfer, like Hollywood Brown, like D.D. Westbrook, I think he ranked top seven in my model just because his 2020 season was so insane. And it's kind of like the Kenneth Gamewell thing where you see untapped potential here, because this is just his only season as a full-time wide receiver.

You have to imagine that there's going to be a steep learning curve. He played quarterback all throughout high school, like you said. He never clips 25 receptions or 25 carries in either of his first three seasons. I think his position was listed as like utility, as like a utility player. So athlete, there you go, athlete. But alongside Kyle Pitts in 2020, he turned 84 targets into 70 catches, very few misses, 984 yards, 10 touchdowns. And then as a rusher, 19 carries into 161.

yards plus a score. He led all wide receivers in-depth-adjusted yards for target over-expectation. Again, that's my favorite stat. It correlates so good, so good for college prospects into the NFL. I don't know why anyone else doesn't look at it, but I'm telling you, man, it's great stat. And he dropped only two of 83 targets last year. That's great hands for a guy who, you know, is a quarterback. And so, yeah, the model's going to miss on the late breakout age. He's slot only. High percentage of production came on screens. I know that doesn't bother you because he's a slot. But man, ADP wide receiver 10, he's being pretty much every mock drafter has him in the first round, maybe the second round, top five wide receiver per basically

everyone. And film analysis, like I try and stay away from film analysis, but when I watched his film, I said to either you or Brett or Danny Kelly, I was like, I've never seen a wide receiver move like that. And they were like, never seen a wide receiver move like that. I've never seen a wide receiver move like that. I said adamantium ACLs. I think Lance Zeerline said like, you know, Mr. Fantastic. Fantastic four guys, ACLs because like the way he moves is so crazy. Not only does he stop on a dime, but like his entire body like shifts and goes the opposite way like a gazelle where he just stops, plants his feet, his knees are like an inch away from touching the grass, and then he just cuts in the complete opposite direction.

Man, this guy is fun. I think Danny Kelly said Kansas City would be a really interesting landing spot. And how unfair would that be just giving another playmaker like that to Kansas City? Do you have any comps? Do you have any, I mean, wide receiver 10 at ADP, where are you taking it? I can't comp him. I did prior, but there's no way, not with this level of athleticism at his size. I mean, I'm just, he's, he's not even, he's not even six foot tall and he's almost,

he almost has a 40 inch vertical. That's that, I mean, we're talking just ridiculous numbers there. But, yeah, I don't think I would love him at Kansas City. I think it would be, he would obviously do well in this system. I just don't, I don't think they need another. another guy that that is going to fill the slide. I think what they what they need is as the guys that they do have to step up after, you know, committing their draft capital.

But, you know, with his, with his man coverage dominance, I'd love to see him at Minnesota, man. I know, I know Jefferson and feeling they do play some in the slot. I don't really care because I'm comfortable with them outside because their route running is is is is is on another level compared to what uh cadarius tony would bring so keeping him in the slot and and then the thing about him is his what he did when he was when he was um like in the flats what he did on his his short um air yard targets was was was just it was another level it was um it was it was the kind of stuff he he's he's he's the kind of guy that i would compare to jalen

wattle see elijah more he's a guy that you can go vertical with um and and and And with his explosion off the line, he is almost impossible to jam. But with Waddle, with Tony, you don't even have to do that. You just get them the ball in the flat. Let him do their work. So, man, if he could go to somewhere like Minnesota where, or, you know, any team with an opening in the slot, like another one, it comes to minus Tennessee, where they can, they have a, a strong ground game because you're not going to get a ton of man coverage when it's an

obvious past situation. That's when the team's going to fall back into their base zone. But when you have a running, a really good run offense, then the team is forced to play more man coverage. You can catch them in their man a lot more. And Minnesota, obviously, with Dalvin Cook and Tennessee with Derek Henry. And then they obviously, they do have. an opening there in the slot.

Man, I'd love to see him land in a situation like that with a quarterback like Ryan Tannahill, like Kurt Cousins, that just eats man coverage alive. So, man, that would be so cool to see him land somewhere like that, especially because I'm going to go after him in my drafts. Yeah, he reminds me of in a post-NFL draft, rookie draft last year, T. Higgins went 206. the pick right after I wanted Higgins, but I was so happy to get Brandon Ayuk at 207. It reminds me the same thing where like these guys, you know, were awesome on tape, you know, good production at least in their final seasons like Tony.

And then they had the draft capital. And so this is one of those instances where the dynasty community is totally fading projected draft capital. He's supposed to be the fourth or fifth wide receiver taken first or second round. And they're just, nah, NFL's got it wrong. we've got it right. I was that way with rugs. I think that's right. I still hate rugs. Sorry, Wes. But with Tony, I think he just got to defer to draft capital and projected draft capital. He's so cheap. Like I said, wide receiver 10. So he's a guy I've been adding

and I've been happy to add. But yeah, man, I think we crushed it. I think this is a fun podcast. And like I said, you know, shave your junk, buy stuff from manscape.com, purchase a fantasy point subscription. Check out all of our articles. My rookie prospect articles are pinned to my Twitter. Wes, your stuff is all over the site. You get a nice little landing page. If you want to just read every single article he's done, it's going to take you a while, but it's great stuff. Love it. Thank you, Wes. Yeah, two things real quick. One, I don't love rugs with Derek Carr. Hate him. Absolutely hate him. A horrible combination.

Two really quick. Excuse us for the last podcast. We were both ill, but we just went ahead with the podcast anyway. May not have had the same energy that we like to bring, but you'll get better out of us in the future. Awesome. All right. Thanks, guys. See you next week. Thanks for tuning in to this edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. and come join the roster at fantasy points.com.